NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
116
FXUS61 KGYX 241839
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
139 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning for all of western ME as well as all of NH.
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the foothills and
points northward for tonight.
A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters outside of
the bays for Sunday night through Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A bitterly cold air mass will remain in place through
tonight. Dangerous wind chills are anticipated for the region.
2. A significant snow storm will bring widespread accumulating
snowfall to the region Sunday afternoon through Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. All snow is expected, which will
bring hazardous travel conditions through the Monday morning and
evening commutes across the area.
3. Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday through the end of the
work week. After the winter storm moves out Monday night into
Tuesday morning, low chances for snow return by the end of the week
outside of some periodic mountain snow showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
An Arctic air mass will remain in place through Sunday as a
~1040 hpa sfc high crests over the region before departing to
our north late Sunday. Skies will remain mainly clear through
the first half of the night as winds gradually diminish. This
combined with very low dew point values will set the stage for
several hours of strong radiational cooling before clouds begin
to increase after midnight. Forecast lows range from around 20
below across the north and some interior valleys with 0 to 10
below zero in most other locations. Some lingering wind combined
with these very cold temperatures will allow windchill values
to fall to around 20-25 below zero from the foothills and points
northward and therefore a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued
for these locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
The forecast is still on track for a significant snowstorm to
impact the region beginning tomorrow afternoon across NH and
then into western ME by tomorrow evening before gradually ending
from west to east Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The
primary impact will be for extremely difficult travel conditions
Sunday evening into Monday night with a growing potential for
snowfall rates to approach 2"/hr Sunday evening and night. In
addition, increasing winds will result in blowing and drifting
snow, further reducing visibility and poor road conditions.
Forecast guidance continues to be in strong agreement that low
pressure will exit the Mid-Atlantic coastline Sunday afternoon
and evening before passing near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday
morning and then arriving over Nova Scotia by early Tuesday
morning. During this same time period, a sharp trof axis will be
arriving from the west, placing us in the favorable jet entrance
region, further enhancing the precipitation shield and
prolonging the event across the region. Mesoscale guidance is
also beginning to show hints of a few mesoscale features as well
including some possible ocean enhancement as well as perhaps an
inverted trof. These features are notoriously difficult to
forecast but broadly speaking, SE NH and perhaps portions of
the SW ME coastline could be most likely to be these "hot
spots."
Latest ensemble and deterministic based guidance shows generally
between 0.75-1.00" of QPF for areas south of the mountains with
009-
012>014-033.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-033.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
MEZ018-023.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NHZ001>004.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150>154.
Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ151-
153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Hargrove
AVIATION...Hargrove/Cornwell
MARINE...Tubbs/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
