NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
859
FXUS61 KGYX 200537
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1237 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Very little has changed in the short term. We expect continued
cold for today, slightly warmer Wednesday with some light snow
possibly entering New Hampshire late in the afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold with daytime wind chills today in the single numbers at
lower elevations and single numbers below zero in the mountain
zones. Wind gusts 25 to 30 MPH.
2. Low pressure passes north of the area Wednesday night
bringing a period of accumulating snow. Accumulations will be
light and snow is forecast to end before the Thursday morning
commute.
3. Coldest stretch of the season is likely late Friday into
early next week. Gusty winds Friday night into Saturday will
likely warrant Cold Weather Headlines. Low temperatures
Saturday night likely dropping several degrees below zero across
the entire area with -20F or lower possible within northern
valleys.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cold air pours into New England today on westerly wind gusts of
25 to 30 MPH allowing for very cold wind chill values all day.
While it should remain dry there could be a few snow showers,
especially across western zones as the low level flow will be
lined up with the Great Lakes. Very cold tonight with
diminishing winds. Lows in the single numbers lower elevations
and below zero mountains zones.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The latest NBM has picked up on the signal for a period of snow
Wednesday night as a clipper system tracks north of the area.
PoPs are now in the 30 to 60 percent range across much of the
area with higher PoPs in the mountains and near the Mid Coast
where there will be added moisture. Latest available model
soundings show a 3 to 6 hour window with decent lift and
moisture through the dendritic growth zone Wednesday night. This
should be enough to bring around 2-3 inches of snow in the
mountains and across central Maine with a coating to 2 inches
elsewhere. Accumulating snow should be exiting there area before
the morning commute. While there will be potential for slick
travel on snow covered roads, the timing of snowfall will be
favorable for limiting impacts during the Thursday morning
commute. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20s in the
mountains and upper 30s near the coast Thursday before a cold
front crosses Thursday night with temperatures dropping below
freezing Thursday evening. Some snow showers may accompany the
front, mainly in the mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Late this week is the climatological coldest time of the year
and an Arctic airmass will be arriving right on schedule late
Friday and will persist through the weekend. A lobe of the
tropospheric polar vortex will swing across Quebec Friday with
a stout Arctic high pressure system building into the Great
Lakes region. Persistent WNW flow ahead of the high will usher
in a bitter cold airmass with 850 mb temps dropping to -30C
across much of the area by Friday night. The going forecast
brings wind chills to around -30F along and north of the
mountains and -15F south of the mountains by Saturday morning.
If this forecast holds over the coming days then these wind
chills will likely necessitate Extreme Cold Warnings across the
north and Cold Weather Advisories across the south. High
pressure will gradually build overhead late Saturday into Sunday
allowing the winds to subside while the cold airmass remains in
place. Highs on Saturday will potentially remain below zero
across the north and struggle to get out of the single digits
south of the mountains. Light winds Saturday night may allow
lows to bottom to their full potential given the air mass with
lows approaching -20F in north valleys and remaining below zero
all the way to the coast. The core of the cold airmass will
retreat to the north early next week while temperatures look to
remain well below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today with westerly wind gusts around 25, perhaps 30 kt at
times. VFR continues tonight with diminishing winds.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR with increasing high clouds in the afternoon.
Southwesterly winds of only 5 to 10 kt expected.
Wednesday Night: Light snow is likely for all TAF sites through
Thu morning with areas of IFR or lower.
Thursday: Local MVFR or lower possible in snow showers. Otherwise
widespread VFR.
Thursday Night: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Friday: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Friday Night: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Saturday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Any gales diminish to SCA levels early this morning. SCA
conditions continue through Wednesday.
Southwest winds will ramp up Wednesday night as low pressure
tracks north of the waters. Winds may gust up to Gale force over
the outer waters at times, otherwise SCA conditions will likely
continue for all waters. Winds shift more westerly Thursday
night with SCA conditions continuing into Friday. Strong high
pressure builds in from the west Friday with winds increasing to
Gale force and Arctic air moving over the waters will bring at
least moderate freezing spray into Saturday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
Ekster/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
