NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
097
FXUS61 KGYX 202349
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
749 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast continues to be on track as light rain and snow
continues to move through the forecast area. This activity
should start to diminish over the next couple of hours. For this
update, just blended in some of the latest observations to the
sensible weather fields and updated the aviation forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Quick hitting system still on track to bring a period of snow
from the White Mountains northward in NH and much of western Maine
with some slick travel likely through this evening. Rain will be the
dominant precipitation type across south-central NH and far
southwestern Maine.
2. Widespread snow and rain event expected Sunday-Sunday night
with a plowable snow likely for much of the area...especially
away from far southern NH and the immediate coast. There is some
potential for lighter snow to linger into Monday.
3. Active weather week continues For Tuesday and beyond with
multiple precipitation chances and temperatures at or a bit below
normal for late March.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A wave of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will
trek east this evening continuing to spread precipitation across
the forecast area. Latest radar presentation and surface obs
show snow has already broken out along and north of the
mountains. There will be several hours of decent H8 Fgen forcing
through roughly 7 PM this evening that will bring potential for
snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour in the mountains. Surface
temperatures near freezing across the north will likely lower
through the afternoon with the aid of wet bulbing. These
falling temperatures combined with snowfall rates will likely
bring slick travel through this evening. There have not been any
significant changes to the snowfall forecast since the last
package with 2-5 inches forecast along and north of the
mountains with the high end of the range confined to the higher
terrain.
South of the mountains precipitation will be mainly rain. The
exception will be portions of interior Maine from KLEW to KWVL
where dynamic cooling will allow for rain to mix with snow along with
potential for a brief period snow between 5-8 PM that could
slicken up roads for the evening commute.
Precipitation will taper off from NW to SE after 8 PM this
evening. Dry air aloft may allow for snow to end across the
mountains and north as freezing drizzle. Winds will shift
northwesterly towards day break allowing for clearing skies
Saturday morning. The NW gradient will tighten around mid day
Saturday that may allow for winds to gust around 25-30 mph
downstream from the mountains with high gusts in the terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Weak wave riding along polar front will allow for precipitation
to develop associated with isentropic ascent spreading across
the area Sunday. Then...a stronger...upstream shortwave dives
into the northeast Sunday night and Monday with stronger low
pressure developing along the front and then lifting north and
east. This system will have more moisture to work with then the
one tonight with PWATs south of the frontal boundary reaching
1". The initial frontal wave/isentropic ascent supports up to
0.5" of liquid. The wildcard is then the second wave of low
pressure that develops and whether it can throw more
precipitation into the mix for Monday. The EC/EC-EPS is more
bullish in this regard resulting in high probabilities of >0.5"
liquid through daybreak Monday with a low probability /10-20%/
of 1" of liquid.
As for PTYPE...expect all snow at onset late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning with llevel warming supporting a transition to rain
over southern NH and SW Maine with some difference in just how far
north and east the rain/snow line will reach. For areas that remain
all snow...a plowable snow is likely with snowfall in the 3-6+"
range possible by Sunday evening with slick travel likely
through the day Sunday. Further south more mix and warmer
temperatures will result in a coating to a slushy inch or two
before the changeover. Overall...this event may necessitate
winter weather advisories with travel impacts Sunday into at
least Monday morning.
In the more robust solutions...the precipitation looks to come in
two waves...one daytime Sunday and the next early Monday. The Monday
batch would be all snow throughout the region with colder
temperatures arriving as low pressure takes shape to our east.
Thus...while initial snow will be wet...see only a very limited
power outage threat as temperatures cool Sunday night and additional
snow is not as sticky.
We/ll continue to watch the evolution of the second half of this
event to determine overall magnitude of impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A parade of shortwaves embedded within the west northwest flow
aloft along the polar jet axis are poised to move through the
region for the middle and latter portions of next week. Given
the fast flow...there is a fair amount of spread amongst the
global ensembles with the EC/EC-EPS more bullish on a signal for
precipitation on Wednesday while there is a clearer signal for
another event by Friday. Given their source region...pattern
recognition suggest that these will not be heavy precipitation
producers...but temps aloft are cool enough that snow will be
the favored PTYPE in the mountains and foothills with rain to
the south and along the coast. Best weather day looks to be
Tuesday with some sun and a brief respite between systems.
Temperatures aloft are a bit below normal for late March...
favoring highs in the 30s across the mountains to the lower 40s
over southern areas and along the coast...3-5F below normal for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through Saturday night: Conditions will continue mainly in
IFR/LIFR categories this evening in low ceilings and rain along
and south of a line from KLEB to KRKD. KHIE may see another
hour or two of IFR/MVFR snow before ceilings dip into IFR
categories overnight. A couple of hours of snow is also possible
at AUG. IFR likely lingers overnight in low ceilings and
drizzle while steady precipitation ends by midnight. NW winds
bring drier air by Saturday morning that will bring conditions
to VFR through the day Saturday.
Outlook (Sunday through Next Week): An active weather week is
expected with numerous chances for precipitation and therefore
restrictions. Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions appear likely in Snow
and Rain/Snow for Sunday-Sunday night with some potential for
precipitation & restrictions to linger into Monday. Improving
conditions are expected Tuesday before additional chances for
precipitation/restrictions arrive Wednesday and again Friday.
There is some potential for gusty northwest winds on Wednesday
and again late Friday behind a series of fast-moving weather
systems.
&&
.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure crossing the waters will bring increasing
southerly flow through this evening with winds shifting
northwesterly Saturday morning as the low departs. Winds and
seas will bring SCA conditions into Saturday morning with
elevated seas allowing SCAs to continue through Saturday
afternoon.
Outlook (Sunday through Next Week): An active pattern is
expected for Sunday through the coming week...which will result
in nearly continuous SCA conditions through the week. There is a
low probability for gale force wind gusts in the Wednesday-
Thursday timeframe depending on the location and strength of
developing low pressure over or just east of the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Arnott/Hargrove/Schroeter
AVIATION...Arnott/Hargrove/Schroeter
MARINE...Arnott/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
