NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
815
FXUS61 KGYX 220613
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
213 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the going forecast as all winter
weather advisories and warnings remain in place and have not
been expanded at this time. The only change was to extend the
small craft advisory on the waters into Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure brings a round of wintry weather and accumulating
snowfall to much of the area early this morning into Monday.
2. Expect an active work week with multiple precipitation
chances and temperatures around or a bit below normal for late
March.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A winter weather event with relatively minor impacts will occur
today into tonight. Minor changes to the going forecast have
been made. However there are a few concerns, mainly the ability
for snow to accumulate today as we deal with the mid to late
March sun angle. The snow that falls early this morning will
likely melt on the roads today unless snowfall rates are more
than a half inch per hour. While those rates are likely in some
areas, especially the mountains, it won`t be ubiquitous. With
that said, slippery conditions are possible, especially after
sunset this evening. One caveat is the potential for an inverted
trough to produce more snowfall on Monday. These are
notoriously tough to predict, so confidence on any amounts with
that are low.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A mid-level trough will remain
over head next week, with high pressure moving in on Tuesday.
This should allow for below-normal lows. On Wednesday, a cold
front looks to move southeastward across NH and Maine.
A saturated dendritic-growth zone and some instability ahead of
the front could lead to the development of snow squalls in the
afternoon, especially in the mountains. Snow squalls could lead
to some slick mountain passes Wednesday evening.
By the end of the week, ensembles are perhaps a little more
confident in a much broader low moving from west to east Thursday
night and into Friday. While models are more confident in the
existence of the system, models are less confident on
precipitation types.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR transitions to MVFR and then IFR early this morning as snow
spreads from west to east. IFR prevails through the day today,
with snow mixing with or transitioning to rain at MHT, CON, and
PSM, while snow continues elsewhere. Steady precip ends late
today, while snow showers continue across northern terminals.
Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible at all other terminals
as IFR conditions prevail.
Outlook:
Monday-Monday night: VFR, though brief restrictions are
possible with snow showers.
Tuesday: VFR expected.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: Brief periods of IFR possible under
snow showers.
Wednesday night-Thursday night: IFR possible in rain and snow.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions likely in easterly flow today and continuing
through Monday.
An active pattern is expected to continue through the coming work
week, which will result in nearly continuous SCA conditions. There
is a chance for gale force wind gusts Wednesday through Thursday
depending on the location and strength of developing low pressure
over or just east of the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
MEZ007-008-012-013.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday
for MEZ009-014-018>022-024>028-033.
NH...Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
NHZ004-006.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
NHZ001>003-005-007>010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Ekster/Hargrove/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
