NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
836
FXUS61 KGYX 051120
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were needed for this update other than to blend
in the latest observations of the sensible weather fields to the
going forecast and to freshen up the aviation discussion for
the 12z TAF period.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A wave of low pressure brings a mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain across southern New Hampshire with a narrow area
of accumulating snow across south-central New Hampshire and
southwest Maine. Difficult travel will be likely across these
areas tonight into the Friday morning commute.
2. Cool conditions and an extended period of freezing drizzle
look increasingly likely for Friday into Saturday.
3. A warm airmass makes multiple pushes toward Northern New
England from late this weekend through midweek next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A short wave crossing Atlantic Canada this morning will send a cold
front southwestward through the area today with high pressure
building in from the north. Colder air will drain into the region
from the northeast with temperatures falling during the afternoon.
The cold front will stall over southern New England this evening
while a low amplitude short wave approaches from the west. This
short wave will bring moisture into the region with a wave of low
pressure forming along the stalled front.
Latest available 00Z guidance shows the wave of low pressure will
bring a narrow axis of precipitation across the southern half of the
forecast area tonight through Friday morning. Precipitation types
will be tricky as low level cold air will undercut warm air aloft
this evening with surface temperatures dropping below freezing by
the time precipitation starts across southern New Hampshire around 6
PM. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely across
south-central New Hampshire into far southwestern Maine at
precipitation onset from 6 PM into the first half of tonight.
Several CAM solutions suggest that cold air will win out with
the snow/mix line pushing back south after midnight tonight
with snow continuing into Friday morning. High pressure holding
firm to the north will create a sharp cutoff in accumulating
snow with the going forecast keeping accumulations confined
along and south of a line from the White Mountains to KRKD.
Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded across all southern
counties in New Hampshire for the combination of light icing and
snow amounts pushing 4 inches across southeast New Hampshire.
North of the Advisory precipitation will mainly be snow with
amounts of 1-3 inches with amounts decreasing to the north.
Precipitation likely continues across south-central NH and far
SW Maine into Friday morning with slick travel likely on
untreated surfaces. Precipitation tapers off north to south
through the morning into early afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Expecting cold air damming to hold strong across the entire
region through Saturday as low level cold and cloudy conditions
limit mixing potential. Feel the NAM has a decent handle on the
cold air holding firm while other guidance is well too warm. As
has been observed already this week, the models have trended
colder getting closer to the event, well after the pattern
suggested that warmth was not favored. So with that in mind,
temperatures were adjusted well lower than NBM guidance as a
result utilizing the coldest available guidance. This keeps
temperatures near or below freezing into at least the first half
of Saturday.
This set up also favors a period of freezing drizzle Friday
night- Saturday as long as surface temperatures remain below
freezing. Soundings show a saturated profile up through 850 mb
with a wedge of dry air aloft, supporting the potential. Worth
mentioning most guidance in range is showing a few hundredths
of ice accretion, while the ECMWF and RRFS are offering even
higher amounts with some scattered steadier precipitation moving
through. Temperatures are likely to moderate some later into
the day Saturday especially across S NH, but even there it will
be a raw day in the 30s/near 40. There is a chance northern
portions of the region stays near/below freezing through the
day, prolonging the threat for freezing drizzle. This period
will continue to be monitored for the threat of slick travel.
These conditions persist into Saturday night before the passage
of a cold front overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Following the passage of a cold front Saturday night, better
mixing on westerly flow allows temps to warm into the 40s to low
50s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies. This marks our first
real chance for our next seasonably warm day.
By early next week the pattern looks to favor a highly
amplified ridge building into the Northeast. This would support
warm air pushing into northern New England, and bringing
significant snow melt. Indeed, most global guidance continues to
show temperatures pushing into the 60s and even 70s by midweek
next week. A ridge as amplified as the models are currently
showing would support this, but there area cracks starting to
show up in this warm scenario.
As has been observed with Todays`s forecast, and now Saturday`s
forecast, the cold has a way of winning out in these borderline
spring warm up events. The ridge next week is still showing up
as being highly amplified, but a notable change since last
night`s runs has been toward a less amplified ridge.
Temperatures still look warm in New England, but there`s been a
notable trend southward with the colder air across Quebec.
Should this trend continue, it will once again bring the cooler
air into New England and risk thwarting the warm up in both
amplitude and duration. Again, this still has not shown up on
the models, but it`s a potential outcome to continue to monitor
for over the next few days given the pattern and recent
experience.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Mainly VFR through this morning but we have
seen some fog around LEB which has led to some periodic MVFR to
IFR conditions. This fog shouldn`t last for much longer. Clouds
thicken and lower from south to north late morning into the
afternoon with increasing ENE winds. MVFR ceilings will develop
at KLEB, KMHT, KCON, and KPSM by late morning into early
afternoon.
By this evening, snow, sleet and freezing rain are all expected
across the area and will lead to IFR at KMHT, KCON, and KPSM.
North and east of these sites will see MVFR and possibly IFR in
any snow, mainly at KLEB and KPWM. Low ceilings will likely
bring IFR to MVFR for all sites tonight. Wintry precipitation
will likely continue into Friday morning.
Outlook:
Friday afternoon - Friday night: Areas of IFR or lower in low
cloud cover. Freezing drizzle is also increasing likely at most
terminals Friday night.
Saturday: Areas of IFR to MVFR in low cloud cover. Morning
freezing drizzle, then afternoon drizzle are increasingly
likely.
Saturday night: Areas of MVFR or lower possible with precip
changing to rain showers.
Sunday: Improving to VFR during the day.
Sunday night - Monday night: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
A backdoor cold front crosses this morning with NE winds
bringing SCA conditions outside the bays by 12Z this morning.
ENE winds continue SCA conditions through Friday. Another round
of SCA conditions in southwesterly flow are possible late
Saturday and Saturday night ahead of a cold front. The front
passes early Sunday, brining a brief period of fair conditions
before another possible period of southwesterly SCA conditions
develops by late Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Friday for NHZ011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair/Hargrove/Schroeter