NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
819
FXUS61 KGYX 031756
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1256 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Seasonable highs and cool nighttime lows continue through
midweek. A shortwave brings some scattered snow showers on
Wednesday, with cooler air returning behind this system for late
week.
2. Light snow is possible Friday night into Saturday and could
create slippery travel.
3. Becoming bitterly cold and breezy this weekend with Cold
Weather Headlines increasingly likely centered around Saturday
night. Dangerous wind chills of -20F to -30F possible from
Saturday late evening through Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A shortwave approaches from the west overnight, and brings some
scattered snow showers to the area on Wednesday. These will
mostly be focused across the higher terrain, but may also spill
into central Maine during the daytime. Any accumulations would
remain light, with no more than a coating expected.
Clouds move in ahead of this system tonight, but ideal
radiational cooling conditions are expected again tonight
before these clouds arrive. With clouds arriving in the west
first, northern valleys see temps fall quickly through the
evening, but then level off overnight as the clouds arrive. This
leaves valley locations east of the mountains, particularly
from Fryeburg through Waterville as having the best potential to
see the coldest temps tonight before the clouds arrive.
The system swings through during the day tomorrow, with temps
falling on a northwesterly wind behind the front tomorrow night.
The front does weaken as it crosses through, so there won`t be
as cold of an airmass with wind as we`ve seen behind some other
fronts lately. With this set up, radiational cooling will be
possible again late tomorrow night, but doesn`t look as good of
a set up as the last few nights.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A shortwave trough will bring more cloud cover and a chance of snow
showers on Thursday, but this looks to be primarily in the
mountains. Otherwise, fairly benign weather is expected through
Friday with highs in the 20s for both Thursday and Friday. Thursday
night still looks cold with temperatures below zero for much of
the region.
A more potent shortwave bring a better chance for light snow and
slippery travel Friday into Saturday with ensembles suggesting a
coating-2" possible, although a fluff factor may bring slightly
higher totals.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Of more impact will be the Arctic airmass that invades the region
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. An upper low will
continue to drop to the south and east out of northern Canada
the rest of the weekend with a strong front crossing the region
on Saturday. At the same time, the shortwave that brings the
chance for light snow will take on a negative tilt with a
surface low quickly developing and deepening south and east of
the Gulf of Maine. This and the high building in from the west
will bring a tight pressure gradient across the area, and as the
arctic air spills into the region, winds will also pickup
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, creating dangerous
wind chills.
Based on the latest forecast, it looks like most of the area will be
experiencing wind chills below zero by Saturday afternoon, double
digits below by early Saturday evening, and between -20F and
-30F Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cold Weather headlines will
likely be needed.
A few snow showers could last into Sunday as the upper low crosses,
but mainly it remain a cold day with wind chills potentially staying
below zero with winds remaining breezy and temperatures struggling
to reach the 10s. Winds will not be as breezy going into Sunday
night but still enough to possibly bring wind chills in the
double digits below zero once again (but not as cold as Saturday
night).
Temperatures remain below normal but start to recover Monday, and by
Tuesday guidance favors returning to near or even slightly
above normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR prevails at southern terminals through tomorrow night.
Elsewhere, VFR continues into tonight, then HIE and LEB likely,
and AUG and RKD possibly, see periods of MVFR ceilings and some
scattered snow showers late tonight and Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings likely then lingering at HIE Wednesday night, and
possibly lingering at LEB.
Outlook:
Thursday-Friday: A few snow showers and possible MVFR on Thursday,
mainly HIE and AUG, but otherwise VFR prevails.
Friday night - Saturday: Light snow and IFR restrictions
possible. Northwest gusts of 25-35kt possible Saturday afternoon
and evening.
Saturday night - Sunday: There could be a few snow showers but
mainly VFR is expected, except MVFR possible at HIE. Northwest
gusts of 25-35kt possible Saturday night and around 25 kt on
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak low pressure system crosses New England on Wednesday,
with a cold front crossing the waters late in the day. Some
marginal SCA conditions are possible across the outer waters
with the passage of the front late Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
SCA conditions possible late Thursday and Thursday night with
improving conditions Friday.
Low pressure slides across New England Friday night and is expected
to strengthen south and east of the coastal waters over the weekend.
North to northwest gales are likely, including the bays, and it`s
possible there will be a period of storm-force gusts over the outer
waters. Moderate freezing spray is likely over the weekend with
heavy freezing spray possible from late Saturday through Sunday
morning.
Gales might linger into Monday with gradually improving
conditions Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
