NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
665
FXUS61 KGYX 261746
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1246 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
For this forecast package, the main changed was to refine
precipitation chances based on the latest radar observations and
the latest high resolution guidance. Headlines remain unchanged
for now.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter storm will gradually wind down into this evening with
another broad 1 to 4 inches of accumulation expected. Expect more
cold temperatures tonight and Tuesday for the cleanup and recovery
phase.
2. Below normal temperatures continue through the second half
of the week with a signal for a bit of a warm up back to more
seasonable temperatures into early next week.
3. A signal for another coastal storm is arising in a similar
timeframe to this past one (Sunday PM into Monday). Details are
sparse as this is appearing at the end of the forecast period,
but will be monitored closely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The low pressure center that brought significant snow to our area
last night into this morning continues to move out to sea as some
light to moderate wrap around snow continues across much of the
forecast area.
Later today, the next shortwave trough will nudge further into the
region from the west. This impulse will interact with some of the
lingering lift from the departing low, leading to some more light
accumulations through this evening. The general consensus from the
latest guidance is that we should see a broad area of another 1 to 4
inches of snow through the evening, likely maximized over the
interior of Maine, the foothills and mountains. It will also remain
breezy through the day and again tonight with some gusts in the 20
to 25 mph range, especially along coastal areas. The Winter
Storm Warning remains unchanged.
Temperatures will remain cold for the cleanup/recovery process as
lows tonight are forecast to range from around zero to the single
digits above. With the breezy conditions in place, we are also likely
to see widespread wind chills as low as 10 below overnight into
Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will remain well below normal with
values generally ranging from 10 to 20 above. Winds will be
diminishing during the day on Tuesday but afternoon wind chills are
not likely to warm much above 10 to 15 above. Cold air remains in
place with Tuesday night lows ranging from the lower single digits
below zero north, to around 5 above south.
Progressive ridging will cross the area on Tuesday which should help
to dry the area out, but we could see a few lingering snow showers
over the mountains and vicinity.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Mean troughing will persist over the eastern U.S. allowing
Arctic air to continue filtering into the Northeast. 850 mb
temperatures look to stay locked in at around -20C through
Friday, keeping surface daytime temperatures steadily in the
upper teens and low 20s south of the mountains, and in the upper
single digits and low teens to the north. This will amount to
very cold nighttime and early morning temperatures with the NBM
already bottoming out in the single digits below zero across the
area Wednesday and Thursday night. With high pressure progged
to nose in, there is room for those to go even lower as we get
closer in time. There is a good signal in the ensemble for a
return to more seasonable temperatures early next week,
potentially in the wake of another storm (see Key Message 3
description).
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Models are in fairly good agreement for this time range that
another sharp trough is going to dig into the central U.S. this
weekend. The area where the models currently differ is where the
resulting cyclogenesis occurs and how it tracks. The Euro is
currently the strongest solution with the low originating in the
Gulf and putting it on a favorable track for accumulating snow
for the Northeast. It`s AI Ensemble counterpart, which has
performed well with the last couple events already has 50-80%
probabilities of greater than 3" of snow across the area. The
GFS and Canadian (and their respective ensembles) are less
enthused, generating the low in the Caribbean and putting it on
a track to stay mostly offshore. This is something that will be
monitored closely, as on top of the impacts that come along with
plowable snow, this is a period of high astronomical tides, so
potentially having a strong low somewhere off the coast is of
interest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While most of the heavy snow has moved out, periodic light to
moderate snow will continue through this evening across most of
New Hampshire and western Maine. This will mean more LIFR/IFR to
MVFR conditions at times. Through the rest of today snow
intensity may be variable and conditions may bounce between MVFR
and IFR/LIFR. Gradual improvement is expected after 03Z tonight
with VFR likely south of the mountains through Tuesday.
Outlook:
Wednesday-Saturday: VFR should prevail at most terminals as no
significant weather is expected through the second half of the
week. HIE could see brief periods of MVFR ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale force gusts are expected through mid afternoon across the
outer waters and SCA conditions linger through Tuesday for all
waters. Light to moderate snow will remain possible into this
evening well. Moderate freezing spray will be possible inside
the bays where temps remain very cold west of the coastal front
into the afternoon.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the weekend. Some wind
gusts 25kt+ are possible Thursday night as we end up between
pressure systems. Otherwise, SCA wind gusts and seas may not
return until Sunday and will be dependent on the track of a
coastal low pressure system.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-
012>014-019>022-024>028-033.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ018-
023.
NH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151-
153.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
