NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
471
FXUS61 KGYX 130040
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
740 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Allowed SCA to expire in the bays. Otherwise, forecast remains
largely the same for the overnight hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Several weak shortwaves will move through the region this
afternoon through Tuesday, bringing low to medium chances of snow
showers mainly to the far north.
2. Remaining warm but mostly cloudy on Wednesday with a few
rain showers.
3. The pattern stays active late week and into the weekend with
colder temperatures and multiple chances for wintry
precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1 Description...
As a low continues to move off to the northeast from the
Canadian Maritimes, the flow will deamplify through the day
becoming nearly zonal by this evening. A couple of weak
shortwaves will then ripple through the flow this afternoon and
evening. This will mean another round of snow showers, mainly
across the far north and mountains. Overall, accumulations
should be light. A low amplitude ridge axis crosses the forecast
area Tuesday afternoon, transitioning us back into southwest
flow aloft. A stronger wave then approaches Tuesday evening as a
surface low deepens near the Ontario/Quebec border. While most
of the large scale forcing will remain north of the
International border, we should see enough lift for at least
some light snow showers across our northern zones and the higher
terrain. Farther south, we are likely to see rain mixing in or
rain from the onset.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the first part of
the week as well. Highs today are forecast to range from the mid 20s
north, to the mid to upper 30s south. Then on Tuesday, highs are
forecast to mainly range from the lower 30s north, to the lower 40s
south.
Key Message 2 Description...
Weakening low pressure continues to trek across Quebec Wednesday
with a frontal boundary approaching New England from the west.
Ongoing southerly flow out ahead of the front will result in
another day of above normal temperatures with most seeing highs in
the 40s. A few rain showers are possible, except snow showers
in the higher elevations.
Key Message 3 Description...
There has been more of a trend in the model guidance for Wednesday
night and Thursday depicting the frontal boundary or what`s left of
it stalling out somewhere over the area with broad low pressure
developing at the surface. Multiple waves aloft riding along
the boundary will result in chances for precipitation with mostly
snow across the north where up to a few inches of snow are possible
based on latest ensemble mean QPF. To the south, more of a rain/snow
mix or even plain rain are both possible, although where the mix
occurs could fluctuate a bit depending on where the boundary hangs
up. There may be periods of drizzle as there hints of dry air in the
DGZ.
The surface low begins to exit into the Maritimes Thursday
night into Friday, and northwest winds will begin to bring in colder
air, which should transition ptype to mostly snow with lift still
present from an upper low approaching. This may result in slick
travel on Friday morning in some areas, but details are still
uncertain. Any lingering precipitation should come to an end by
Friday afternoon as shortwave ridging begins to build in, but the
rest of the day will be chilly with highs only in the 20s.
Saturday will be the dry day with high pressure overhead, but this
will quickly give way to another system that could bring more wintry
weather on Sunday, although there is quite a bit of spread in the
guidance. There is good support in the ensembles for drying going
into next Monday other than some lingering upslope snow showers in
the mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of the mountains through
Tuesday, while MVFR ceilings remain possible at HIE. There`s an
outside shot for some MVFR ceilings at LEB, but they should
mainly see low VFR ceilings. MVFR conditions may hang around at
HIE until sometime Tuesday morning.
The next wave then approaches Tuesday evening, leading to more
IFR to MVFR conditions in snow/rain showers overnight.
Outlook:
Wednesday: MVFR ceilings possible with tempo MVFR visibility in
rain showers.
Wednesday night IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR
restrictions more likely at other terminals in light rain early but
could lower to IFR if rain transitions to snow.
Thurs night and Friday: More widespread wintry precipitation
(mostly snow) and IFR flight restrictions possible.
Saturday: Mostly VFR except MVFR ceilings and snow showers
possible at HIE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions should continue through tonight before diminishing
during the day on Tuesday and then returning on Tuesday night as low
pressure crosses through the Gulf of Maine.
Wednesday-Monday...SCA conditions likely continue into the first
part of Wednesday with low pressure passing well north of the
waters and a frontal boundary approaching from the west. Low
pressure moves across or near the waters (track is still
uncertain) Thursday and Friday with SCA conditions at times and
possibly a period of gales. High pressure builds across the
waters Friday night into early Saturday and then quickly shifts
east as another low pressure system approaches and crosses the
region around Sunday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster/Hargrove/Legro
AVIATION...
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
