NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
933
FXUS61 KGYX 160547
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1247 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall amounts have slightly increased for a weak system
crossing Saturday with the latest snowfall forecast calling for
widespread 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cold airmass will usher into the area this morning on
breezy winds making for a cold morning with wind chills near
zero degrees and colder in the mountains. This cold airmass will
set the stage for light accumulating snow through the day
Saturday leading to slick travel
2. We continue to closely monitor trends for Sunday night into
Monday as a signal for a coastal storm still exists, but higher than
normal uncertainty remains between model solutions. Otherwise, below
normal temperatures through much of next week along with an active
weather pattern will continue to provide chances for snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A short wave trough axis crosses the area this morning with WNW
winds ramping up around day break. These winds will gust 25-30
mph through the morning and when combined with colder air moving
into the region wind chills will range from 10 degrees below
zero across the north and around zero degrees across southern NH
and coastal Maine.
The next weak system will approach from the Great Lakes tonight
spreading light snow across the region with the first wave
arriving before day break Saturday. The low center will track NW
of the area Saturday afternoon with a warm front pressing
through southern New England. The latest available CAM guidance
shows modest Fgen forcing around 700 mb that could lead to a
period of moderate snow across south-central NH and interior SW
Maine Saturday afternoon. Warm air advection will bring the
potential for temperatures near the coast and southeast NH to
warm into the mid 30s that may limit accumulations. Overall
accumulations are forecast to be a widespread 1-2 inches from
the coast to the mountains with this snowfall occurring across
SE NH and coast Maine Saturday morning before the potential
changeover. Across the higher terrain of the Monadnock through
central NH into the foothills of Maine there is potential for
higher amounts approaching 3 inches. Precipitation will come to
and end Saturday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Will need to continue to monitor a potential coastal low late Sunday
into Monday, which may bring some accumulating snowfall to at least
portions of the region. While global ensemble suites continue to
favor a more offshore track, keeping the majority of precipitation
too far east, the AI ECMWF and GFS show a rather strong signal for
at least some snow accumulations, especially across southern areas.
One thing to watch is the timing and placement of a cold front,
which will help to serve as a steering mechanism for this system.
Temperature profiles support this to be a snow event and given the
potential for some impacts to the Monday morning commute, it bears
watching. The WPC Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index shows
around a 20-30% chance for at least minor impacts.
Below normal temperatures return for next week as our weather
pattern remains on the active side. Models suggest that clippers
from the Great Lakes Region continue to traverse the area along with
several upper level waves traversing the broad trough. There isn`t a
signal for anything impactful at the moment, and midweek looks
mostly dry as high pressure noses into the region, but some chances
for snow showers are in the forecast late week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upslope clouds and -SHSN will continue to bring at least MVFR at
KHIE through the first half of tonight. Some MVFR cigs are
holding at KRKD, but is expected to exit by 08Z as winds shift
westerly. Elsewhere VFR is expected with VFR for all TAF sites
by early Friday morning as W winds increase, with some gusts to
20 kt before dawn. Expect gusts to increase further Friday
morning after sunrise, 20 to 25 kt.
Outlook:
Friday night: VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs as clouds
thicken/lower. Light SN possible late.
Saturday: Light snow is likely for all TAF sites through
Saturday morning bringing the potential for IFR. During the
afternoon, PSM, PWM, and RKD improve to MVFR if rain or a
rain/snow mix remains the dominant precipitation type.
Saturday Night: Gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR overnight as
precipitation wraps up and ceilings begin to lift.
Sunday: Ceilings may lift to VFR for a time on Sunday, but would
quickly return to MVFR as another system moves into the region.
Sunday Night: MVFR for most terminals with IFR visibility
restrictions possible in snow for coastal TAF sites.
Monday: Potential for MVFR or worse restrictions in possible SN.
Forecast confidence is low. Conditions should improve by late
day.
Monday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals.
Tuesday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure exits to the northeast with westerly winds
increasing through day break. These westerly winds will bring
Gales over the outer waters and SCA conditions in the Bays.
Winds drop below SCA thresholds tonight while seas will remain
around 5 feet into Saturday. A warm front pushes into the
waters Saturday with SW winds approaching 20-25 kts.
There won`t be much of a reprieve from SCA conditions as
seas stay around 5 ft through the day Sunday. Winds then ramp up
with frequent gusts 25kt+ by Monday afternoon. Gale force
westerly winds possible Monday night-Tuesday as a coastal low
approaches or crosses over the waters. SCA conditions will
likely linger through mid-week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schroeter/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
