NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KGYX 270030
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
830 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will approach the region
from the west tomorrow. A cold front will pass through the
region Friday night and Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday,
with the chance for another weak cold front to pass from the
north Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING/...
830PM Update...Winds have calmed down in central and northern NH
so I have calmed winds down over these areas. Clouds will be
moving in overnight, especially in southern and coastal areas
likely creating areas of fog over the waters and coastal areas
east of Casco Bay. Southwesterly flow will blow parallel to the
coastline for much of NH and west of Casco Bay which will
prevent the fog from moving too far inland. Casco Bay will be
right on the transition point where the fog looks to build in
overnight. Bumped temperatures up overnight a few degrees with
onshore flow keeping things warmer overnight.


Previous Discussion...
Chances of showers continue for the western mountains this
evening, with little coverage east of there. Clearing skies this
afternoon allowed temperatures to really excel across central
areas, including overperforming through the ME capitol region.
Expect clouds to slowly increase tonight, with some fog possible
along the Midcoast. A strengthening low level jet will keep
winds a bit gusty through the evening, but mixing should
decrease overnight. Nonetheless, maybe a gentle breeze continues
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: An unsettled pattern will push into the area Friday,
clearing Saturday evening. Low pressure to the north will slowly
drag a cold front towards, and through the CWA. This will
include the chance for showers, especially across the mountains,
as well as thunderstorms. Warm, seasonable temperatures will
grip the interior and coast.

Details: For Friday, the aforementioned cold front will ever so
slightly be advancing eastward. Trimmed back PoPs a little to be
more in line with NAM/CMC runs. These depict scattered showers
across the western mtns, mainly in the afternoon, as well as the
chance for thunderstorms. For much of the coast and coastal
plain, showers should stay west...this is primarily due to less
forcing in relation to the front.

Main concerns Fri into Sat will be any training of
showers/storms that set up. Precip efficiency may be hamstrung
by thin-ish warm cloud depths, but training will be possible
with unidirectional flow and PWAT values above 1". Guidance
trends continue to paint this right along the Quebec border, so
will need to watch synoptic and meso development for any change
in tracks. HREF UH plots also depict a few swaths nearing the
border in the evening, so have included a brief mention of gusty
winds and small hail should these take advantage of the
tall/skinny CAPE to its max. Overnight is when training may move
further east into the region, thus increased QPF and added heavy
rain wording to remaining thunderstorms...which may stick around
overnight given the persistent elevated instability in the
region for almost 24 hours.

Saturday, the front will have closed its distance to the CWA,
with PoPs increasing towards the coast through the day. Should
the warm sector clear out from cloud debris, another round of
stronger storms may develop along the front during peak heating,
again, a chance for gusty winds/small hail for a more central
portion of the CWA...away from any cooler/stable air along the
Midcoast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The second half of the upcoming holiday weekend is still looking
more favorable than the first. Drier air will spill into the region
behind the departing cold front which will result in clearing skies
overnight Saturday and into Sunday. There isn`t much of an airmass
change behind this front, and max temps are still expected to climb
into the 70s to lower 80s for Sunday`s highs.

Going into next week, the upper-air pattern shows a strong upper
ridge building across SE U.S. extending up into the Great Lakes
while a cutoff low drifts slowly southward through the Canadian
Maritimes. New England will be sandwiched in between these two
features putting us in a northwest flow. This is expected to produce
mainly upslope shower activity, but model guidance is also
advertising a backdoor-type front along with a couple of
disturbances riding along the periphery of the ridge and rotating
around the base of the main upper low. There is support among the
GFS and ECMWF ensembles by many members showing QPF during the
Monday night through Wednesday timeframe, so we`ll have to keep any
eye on potential for brief windows to insert higher PoPs into the
forecast. Max temps will are expected to remain above normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight, with the chance for fog at RKD.
Southern NH terminals will drift towards MVFR after midnight,
improving to VFR Friday. The exception would be sites along the
coast PWM/PSM, which could see a period of IFR. Showers should
be restricted to the west Friday, but TS develop more region
wide Sat with the passage of a cold front.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected to prevail from Saturday
into at least Monday as drier air moves into the region behind a
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue for waves and winds, with
gusts up to 30 kt as a low level jet strengthens overhead
tonight. Patchy fog develops tonight, and again Friday through
Saturday.

Long Term...Conditions will improve as winds will veer offshore and
diminish behind the cold front Saturday night into early Sunday.
Winds quickly become S-SW again as high pressure builds in south of
waters early next week with conditions expected to remain below SCA
levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
UPDATE...Thunberg
NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Combs

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion