NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
024
FXUS61 KGYX 032351
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
651 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain below normal through at least Monday. Some
light snow is possible late tonight and again Monday afternoon
and Monday night as a series of clipper systems cross. A
warming trend builds into the Northeast US mid to late next
week. A better chance for more widespread wintry precip comes
Tuesday night and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:50pm Update... Just a quick update to add some flurries around
the mountains and foothills as Great Lakes moisture continues to
stream eastward. Otherwise to notable changes at this time.
Previous...
A tranquil afternoon is expected as high pressure remains overhead.
Clouds increase this evening across southern NH as a very weak
shortwave arrives in southern New England. Overnight, this wave may
produce a brief period of light snow over southern NH. No
accumulations are expected. Radiational cooling tonight up north
will allow for lows to bottom out in the single digits below zero
expected north of the mountains. Denser clouds should keep lows
south of the mountains warmer, with single digits across central
Maine and lows in the teens in southern NH and York county.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High Pressure returns for Sunday, with mostly clear skies and dry
weather expected through the day. The clear skies will allow for
temperatures to rebound pretty well, with highs ranging from upper
teens in the mountains to upper 20s in the south.
Radiational cooling Sunday night will allow for a particularly cold
night. Mostly clear skies and steady but light cold air advection
should allow for low temperatures to bottom out, with lows ranging
from teens below zero in the northern NH valleys to low single
digits above zero in the seacoast. The additional wind could allow
for wind chills to bottom out even further, a few hours of less than
-20F wind chills can not be ruled out north of the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s): 1.
Temperatures remain cold Monday with light snow possible in the
afternoon through Monday night.
2. More widespread light snow and slippery travel likely
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a period of mixed
precipitation possible Wednesday. Another chance of widespread
precip Friday into next Saturday.
3. Temperatures begin to moderate toward midweek with above
normal temperatures possible for the second half of next week.
After the cold start Monday morning, temperatures won`t recover
all that much with highs limited to the 10s to lower 20s for
highs. The first half of the day will be dry, but clouds will
increase as a weak wave quickly moves through bringing a round
of light snow in the afternoon into Monday night. Even though
amounts with system look light, it`s possible snow begins early
enough to bring slick travel for the afternoon and evening
commute, especially in NH. Most are expected to see less than 1"
of snow, but increasing probabilities for more than 0.10" of
QPF may bring some areas into the 1-2" range given the fluff
factor from higher SLRs. Ensembles favor this across the
southern half of NH and into SW Maine, but this may expand more
along the Maine coastal plain as there are hints of an inverted
trough.
Forecast soundings from the NAM indicate the possibility of
freezing drizzle after the snow comes to an end Monday night,
but otherwise dry conditions are expecting going into Tuesday
with temperatures rebounding into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
The next system of interest moves in with precipitation
overspreading the area Tuesday night and continuing into
Wednesday. This will mostly in the form of snow, but there may
be a period of freezing rain and/or sleet late Tuesday night or
Wednesday as temperatures aloft warm, especially from the
foothills southward. The surface pattern does favor CAD to keep
surface temps cold, but there may be a period near the coast
where ptype becomes plain rain as winds briefly turn onshore
before turning back northerly with a secondary low forming near
the coast looking more likely. Significant precip is not
expected though ensembles for the most part favor QPF of
0.25-0.50", but slippery travel looks to be on the table for
both the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.
Aside from clouds and precip, high pressure builds in for
Thursday and at least part of Friday, bringing dry conditions
and warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The next system brings another opportunity for widespread
precip either late Friday or Saturday, but due to more spread in
guidance and tracks of the low, have not deviated from the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR continues through the night as cloud cover
increases. However, light snow early tomorrow morning may allow
for a very brief period of lower CIGs and visibilities at sites
south of KCON. No restrictions are expected Sunday and Sunday
night.
Long Term...VFR the first part of Monday with light snow
potentially bringing IFR to MVFR restrictions later in the
afternoon through Monday night. This may be followed by a period
of freezing drizzle, but confidence is low on this scenario.
Otherwise, VFR Tuesday with widespread restrictions more likely
Tuesday night into Wednesday with precipitation being light
snow initially. However, there may be a period of mixed
precipitation on Wednesday and possibly even plain rain toward
the coast. VFR returns Wednesday night and Thursday, except
upslope clouds and snow showers may continue at HIE.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds shift to northwesterlies and strengthen back
to SCA thresholds by the end of the day Sunday. SCA winds will
continue through Monday morning. Seas of 2-4ft are expected from
now through Monday morning.
Long Term...Winds and seas steadily come down and remain below
SCA levels on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west.
The high shifts east Tuesday as low pressure approaches and then
crosses New England Tuesday night into Wednesday, potentially
bringing SCA conditions in addition to rain and snow. West to
northwest flow, potentially to SCA levels, continues on Thursday
with the low over the maritimes. High pressure builds back in
Thursday night into Friday before another system approaches from
the west.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Update...Coastal flooding forecast remains on track. No changes
were made to the previous forecast.
Previously...Astronomical tides continue to tick upwards as we
approach the full moon. Currently there is little surge along
the coast with winds largely offshore and continuing that way
thru today. However, tides will be increasing to over 11 ft
without surge and do anticipate that as offshore winds relax
that water levels may slosh back towards the coast a bit.
Guidance seemed overly high on the surge threat, especially by
Sunday at over 1 ft. The ETSS guidance looked like a fair
compromise, closer to 0.5 to 0.75 ft. The result is near flood
stage during this morning`s high tide, and bumping just up to
flood stage Sunday. It is possible that coastal flood advisories
may be needed on Sunday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair/Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
