NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
704
FXUS61 KGYX 241930
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
230 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow will likely be falling for the morning commute Wednesday
morning. A period of greater snow rates will push across
southern NH and then interior/coastal Maine mid to late morning.
There remains some uncertainty on coverage of another round of late
afternoon/evening snow showers along a cold front Wednesday.
Late week storm has trended farther out to sea and less of a
threat to impact the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cool and quiet tonight, but a period of snow is expected to
move through the forecast area, west to east, Wednesday morning.
Snowfall rates around a half inch per hour will impact the
morning commute from southern New Hampshire into south interior
and coastal Maine, creating slick road conditions.
2. A cold front approaches the area Wednesday evening. This
front may bring a heavy snow showers to NH and far western ME.
These could cause sudden visibility reductions and additional
slick spots due to light accumulations.
3. Coastal storm continues to trend south Thursday night into
Friday and impacts are not currently anticipated locally.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Skies remain mostly clear into the evening and overnight hours
tonight. Combined with winds becoming lighter, temperatures
should quickly cool into the teens and single digits...where
afternoon dewpoints sit. Void of much low level mixing,
temperatures should continue to cool overnight into the single
digits for much of the area. Clouds will begin advancing from
the west late, which will tend to slow temp flux.
Snow arrives from the west in the early morning hours Wednesday.
This will first cross NH and then into ME. The most impactful
aspect of this will be the potential for greater snow rates,
around half an inch per hour, embedded in the broader snow
shield. This moves across southern NH between 7 and 10am, and
then up the Maine coast and interior 8am and 1pm. High res
guidance has been increasing QPF through the NH and ME Lakes
Region and southern ME coast, indicative of some additional
strengthening of the wave as it passes into the Gulf of Maine.
Resulting snow amounts are forecast to remain a broad 1-3 inch
snowfall, but some amounts closer to 4 or 5 inches cannot be
ruled out in the increased QPF area mentioned above. Despite the
cool overnight temperatures, sfc temps increase quickly with the
arrival of the snow, this puts the DGZ aloft, while the best
lift is below. Thus snow ratios trend towards 12:1 vs 18:1
earlier in the night.
End of the snow should come as a fine edge as deeper moisture
pushes east this is largely just before noontime for much of NH,
and then 2 to 3 pm for Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Associated cold front with the clipper will near in the late
afternoon and evening. High res guidance like the HRRR and
NAMnest depict snow showers accompanying the front, and low
level moisture and instability support cellular development. The
question is intensity, and current timing brings the front into
NH late. Low level lapse rates may begin weakening at this time,
reducing coverage and intensity. In addition, frontogenesis is
stronger to the south of the forecast area. Some of these may
contain locally gusty winds which could blow around fresh snow
from the morning.
Will continue to message the chance for sudden reduced
visibility and localized slick spots due to the snow showers
alone, but remains uncertainty on timing and intensity.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Clear trends from ensemble guidance over the last 24 hours
regarding the potential late week storm system. Now roughly two
thirds of ensemble members are misses altogether and more than
95 percent of members less than a tenth of QPF reaching southern
zones. Guidance has trended the entire pattern flatter, and
therefore the shortwave escapes east before amplifying enough to
expand QPF shield north into the forecast area. DESI cluster
analysis shows that off the various clusters, the most amplified
cluster is the most likely to bring precip to the forecast
area. Even then that accounts for less than 20 percent of
member. NBM PoP is slight chance with the latest run and that
seems fair, but still may be too high. Beyond this time period
the pattern remains fairly active and there will be plenty of
opportunities for additional precip.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR tonight with NW gusts subsiding late
this afternoon. Clouds thicken and lower quickly Wed morning
with SN pushing across NH and then ME after 12z. This will
likely result in MVFR ceilings and IFR to LIFR vis. Lowest vis
is expected to be across EEN, CON, MHT, PSM, and then up the ME
coast where periods of 1/2SM is possible. Vis should improve
after noon local, but ceilings may remain down. There may be a
period of LLWS between 12z and 18z pushing across the forecast
area, generally 30 to 40 kts.
Outlook:
Wednesday Night: A cold front will bring SHSN in the late
afternoon/evening. These could bring erratic gusts and locally
lower vis.
Thursday: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Friday: VFR conditions expected.
Friday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Saturday: VFR conditions expected.
Saturday Night: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Waves will be slow to decrease this evening, but should fall
below SCA criteria after midnight tonight. Winds become
southerly Wed morning, increasing towards 30 kts through the
day. These should remain below Gale given the warm air over cool
waters.
Any lingering SCA winds and seas will diminish Thu. Then the
approaching upper trof will allow winds to turn southwesterly
heading into Sat. While winds will increase, warmer air moving
over the coldest waters of the season will have trouble mixing
down. While guidance suggests SCA conditions are possible, I am
skeptical that it will be anything more than marginally 25 kt
gusts unless the frontal system strengthens considerably.
However sustained southwesterly winds thru the weekend may allow
seas to build to around 5 ft outside of the bays, especially
north of Cape Elizabeth.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-
152>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro