NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
162
FXUS61 KGYX 050609
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
109 AM EST Mon Jan 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain well below normal through the day today.
Light snow is likely late today and tonight across southern and
central locations as a clipper slides through New England. Low
pressure brings a widespread area of light snow and wintry mix
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A warming trend continues through
the end of the week, with rain possible by the end of the week
as well.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a cold night, temps will be slow to improve through the
Monday morning hours. Incoming clouds aloft will also reduce
insolation with daytime highs topping out in the teens and lower
20s for much of the forecast area.
Quick moving vort max moves out of the Great Lakes during the
afternoon with the column saturating top down into the late
afternoon and evening hours. The disturbance will be quick, but
lack upper level dynamics to increase QPF. High res guidance is
picking up on some low level or coastal enhancement along/off
the NH and southern ME coast. This will be good for an inch or
two of snow through the end of the evening commute.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precip will slowly taper to just along the coast after
midnight, with offshore clouds still producing some flurries
over the coastal waters and islands. Will need to monitor
moisture depth into Tuesday morning as could see enough low lift
for light flurries, or light freezing drizzle. Right now, not
too impressed with residual low level moisture for impacts.
Mostly dry into Tuesday afternoon as zonal flow presides aloft.
Temps do warm with SW winds in the low levels. Highs push into
the upper 20s to low/mid 30s. Next low will move across the
Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, deepening as it nears. Postponed
PoPs across the area until later Tuesday afternoon as mid level
dry air lingers. This system will have better dynamics and begin
as snow for most of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Evening Update... The main focus with this update was on the
Tuesday night and Wednesday system. With CAD in place, precip
arrival after evening radiational cooling, and offshore pressure
falls, the forecast was trended much cooler than NBM using NAM
and CMC regional guidance, the coldest available. This keeps a
wintry mix for southern and coastal areas, with light snow
accumulation across most of the interior. A few hours of plain
rain is likely along the NH Seacoast before the offshore
pressure falls take control and shift winds offshore. Temps then
moderate into the 30s to near 40 in the afternoon with better
mixing and some sunshine.
Full Discussion...
Key messages:
-Widespread light snow expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
with mixed wintry precipitation possible. Slippery travel is
likely, especially for the Wednesday morning commute.
-The pattern will remain active with additional precipitation
possible Friday night into Saturday.
-Above normal temperatures are possible Thursday through the
upcoming weekend.
The clipper system will continue pushing east Tuesday, but
lingering low-level moisture will keep skies cloudy for the most
part, especially south of the mountains. Forecast soundings do also
suggest the possibility of freezing drizzle Tuesday morning, which
will be something to keep an eye on. The rest of the daytime hours
should remain dry with temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Widespread precipitation is still on track Tuesday evening into at
least Wednesday afternoon, but fortunately it looks to arrive after
the Tuesday evening commute. However, slippery travel is looking
likely for the Wednesday morning commute with a variety of precip
types possible. This is owed to a shortwave trough quickly crossing
the Great Lakes with surface low trekking toward New England Tuesday
night and a secondary low developing near the coast on Wednesday.
Initially, forecast soundings show precip as snow Tuesday evening
into the first part of Tuesday night. As the night goes on and into
Wednesday morning, surface temperatures for the most part are
expected to remain subfreezing with CAD in place, but warming
temperatures aloft may lead to a period of freezing rain and or
sleet, especially from the foothills southward. The models have
trended faster with this system, and precip is expected to gradually
end Wednesday afternoon and evening, although some impacts to the
evening commute are still possible.
Other than lingering upslope precip Wednesday night into Thursday,
building high pressure will bring dry conditions and warmer
temps...with highs climbing to the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Above normal temperatures are likely to continue into Friday, and
possibly Saturday as a well, but that depends on the evolution and
track of any upcoming low pressure system(s). There is a good signal
for another chance at widespread precip as early as Friday or more
Friday night and Saturday, but confidence in details is low. Some
ensemble solutions are warmer with more a northerly low track while
some are colder and farther south or in between. So rain and snow
and even a wintry mix are possible at this point. Whatever ends up
happening, the system may be past by Sunday to bring a drying
trend to finish up the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with clouds thickening and lowering late
this afternoon into the evening. MVFR ceilings this evening with
some IFR. SN accompanies the lower clouds with IFR vis
reductions for most terminals south of WVL and BML. Vis will
then improve west to east after midnight Monday night. MVFR
ceilings may remain into Tuesday for the coast and southern NH
terminals.
Long Term... Widespread restrictions then become likely Tuesday
evening through at least Wednesday afternoon as low pressure
moves across New England. Snow is expected in the mountains, but
southern and coastal terminals could see all precipitation
types with this system. Conditions should improvement Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night with VFR for Thursday, except the
usual lingering restrictions at HIE. Another system could bring
more restrictions to the region Friday and/or Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Weak snow-producing system moves across the waters
tonight, with flurries continuing Tuesday. Stronger system will
approach the waters Tuesday evening.
Long Term...Low pressure including a weak secondary low developing
near the coast will bring mostly rain to the waters Tuesday night
into Wednesday, but there may be a period of mixed precipitation
closer to the coast and bays. SCA conditions are also possible,
especially late Wednesday into Wednesday night once winds turn W-NW
as the low lifts into the Maritimes. High pressure builds in for
Thursday before another system approaches either Friday or
Saturday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-
012>014-033.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-151.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Clair/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
