NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
750
FXUS61 KGYX 092325
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
In coordination with the Caribou office, we decided to go ahead
and issue a short duration Wind Advisory for our northern tier
Maine counties tonight into Saturday morning (07z to 13z). It
will be rather marginal but soundings suggest the potential for
a few gusts up to 50 mph behind a cold front that will move
through overnight. Otherwise, no major changes were needed for
this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A controlled melt is expected tonight through Saturday with
above normal temperatures and Rain Showers. No flooding is
expected except for some nuisance poor drainage issues.
2) A period of gusty winds accompany a passing cold front
tonight. The strongest gusts will impact the higher terrain,
but some westerly gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible from the
foothills to the coast before daybreak Saturday. A few gusts to
50 mph will be possible over northern Maine.
3) Snow and mixed precipitation are likely to create slick
travel conditions as it moves in Saturday night and lasts
through the day Sunday.
4) Colder and breezy Monday, a brief warm up heading into
midweek, then back to below normal temperatures late week.
-
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure tracks northeast through Quebec through tonight
with temperatures taking on a non diurnal trend this evening.
Precipitation is expected to break out late afternoon with
mainly light rain expected through the first half of tonight.
The higher terrain will likely see a wintry mix and as
temperatures have been slower to warm, cannot rule out a brief
wintry mix within northern valleys. Dewpoints are expected to
surge above freezing which will lead to a melt period over the
next 12 hours or so before the cold front brings drier and
colder back into the area. Overall some snow- melt is expected
across Southern NH and Coastal Maine, but further inland, it
will be ripening event in the foothills and snowpack settling in
the mountains. Rainfall amounts also look light, under a
quarter of an inch for the region, with most areas outside of
the mountains more around .10" tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A strong cold front will cross the region after midnight
tonight. Mesoscale guidance remains steady showing a brief but
strong corridor of 850 mb winds now approaching 70 kts over the
White Mountains through the Western Maine Mountains. The window
of these strong winds will occur between midnight and 6 AM
where ridge tops will gusts in excess of 60 mph and the lower
elevations seeing gusts up to 40 mph. As cold air advection gets
underway late tonight areas downstream of the mountains could
see gusts 30-35 mph.
Impact wise not expected much in the way of power outages,
maybe a limited threat in the sparsely populated Western Maine
Mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes Saturday night, as a
second low develops in the Gulf of Maine late Saturday night
and Sunday. The first low brings warm air in aloft, while the
coastal low helps brings colder air southward at the surface
Sunday morning.
Like we have seen several times so far this winter, cold air
damming will help to drive temperatures and precip types through
the event. With the NBM`s reliably poor performance through
these systems, the forecast heavily weighted the available high
res guidance, most notably from the Nam 3km. As the HRRR becomes
more available through the system, there is likely room for
continued refinement of temperatures into the day on Sunday.
The set up overall is not as ideal at CAD set up as we have
seen from other systems this winter. Saturday`s highs are mild
with temps in the low to mid 40s, and precip arrives too early
in the evening to allow for any meaningful radiational cooling.
This means we`ll have to rely on wet bulbing and cold air
advection for the colder temperatures.
It`s pretty uncommon to wet bulb below freezing into sleet in
freezing rain. For this reason, along much of the coastal plain
and southern New Hampshire it`s likely to be in the 32-34 degree
range with rain for much of Saturday night. Just north of this
area, temps are likely to be at or just below freezing to
produce a narrow stripe of sleet and freezing rain. Then north
of here through the mountains and foothills, mainly snow is
expected.
This is the anticipated outcome through Saturday night. Then by
daybreak Sunday, temperatures begin to fall as the coastal low
deepens and winds shift to northerly. Colder air is expected to
slosh southward at all levels of the atmosphere as the low
deepens. This transitions precip to mainly rain or snow Sunday
morning, with the rain/snow line moving southward. Precip likely
runs out before the cold air arrives through the Seacoast as
the dry slot moves in, but a period of snow likely ends the
event through much of coastal Maine.
Further north through the mountains, foothills, and across
central Maine, moisture likely continues to blossom through the
day as the coastal low deepens. Through these areas, there is an
increasing potential for advisory level snowfall through the
event.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION:
The system then pulls away Sunday night, with breezy and colder
conditions to follow into Monday. A ridge builds in through
midweek with seasonably warmer temperatures. Cooler air then
returns late week as a trough returns to the Northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Clouds thicken and lower into this evening
with IFR/LIFR cigs developing at KPSM, KPWM, KAUG, and KRKD
through around 06Z. Other TAF sites will see mainly MVFR.
Onshore winds combined with a strengthening SW LLJ will also
bring a period of wind shear to much of the area. Mainly rain
showers will occur with a passing cold front this evening. Winds
shift out NW after 06Z tonight with cigs scattering and mainly
VFR Saturday through Saturday morning. Clouds thicken and lower
Saturday afternoon as the next system approaches from the SW
with at least MVFR possible by 00Z Sunday
Outlook:
Saturday night: Rain across southern and coastal terminals, with
snow and a wintry mix inland. IFR conditions likely.
Sunday: Periods of snow, wintry mix, and freezing drizzle. IFR
conditions likely. Some improvement to MVFR possible across southern
NH late.
Sunday night: Gradual improvement back to MVFR and VFR overnight,
with MVFR most likely to linger at HIE. West wind gusts of 20-30kt
likely.
Monday: VFR at most terminals, with improvement to VFR possible at
HIE by the afternoon.
Monday Night: VFR conditions likely, with MVFR possible late at LEB
and HIE.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR conditions, with MVFR ceilings more likely at
LEB and HIE.
Tuesday Night: Some restrictions possible with an approaching
system that may bring some rain and snow to much of the area.
Wednesday: Some restrictions will remain possible as a system
continues to move through the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds increase through this evening ahead of a cold
front with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds then shift SW early tonight
with gusts to Gale Force before shifting to the west after the
cold front swings through the area. Winds and seas will trend
downward through the day on Saturday with early morning Gales,
trending to SCA, before becoming light and shifting to the north
by Saturday evening.
SCA conditions are possible in northeast flow Sunday as low
pressure tracks through the Gulf of Maine. Westerly gales are
then possible Sunday night into Monday as the low deepens across
Atlantic Canada. SCA conditions are then possible in
southwesterly flow ahead of a slowly approaching front Monday
night through Wednesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for MEZ007>009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ151-153-
154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Hargrove/Schroeter
AVIATION...Clair/Hargrove/Schroeter
MARINE...Clair/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
