NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
319
FXUS61 KGYX 082346 AAA
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
646 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Gale Watch has been issued for Friday night for the outer
waters from Cape Elizabeth northward and includes Penobscot Bay.
The Saturday night and Sunday system continues to trend cooler.
Update to Key Message 1 about potential freezing fog tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog and freezing fog development tonight into Friday
morning will reduce visibility and add the potential for a
thin, icy coating to untreated surfaces through the morning
commute. Temperatures warm above freezing through the morning,
with a period of rain showers by the evening.
2) A period of gusty winds accompany a passing cold front Friday
night. The strongest gusts will impact the higher terrain, but some
westerly gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible from the foothills to
the coast before daybreak Saturday.
3) Low pressure brings a round of snow and wintry mix Saturday
night and Sunday. Slick travel conditions are likely on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Surface high pressure over the DelMarVa will continue to shift
east this evening while a mid level ridge axis will crest over
the region tonight. Partly to mostly clear skies and calm winds
will allow surface temperatures to radiate efficiently while
warmer air moves in aloft. This will set up a stout inversion
overnight with model soundings continuing to show sufficient
moisture beneath the inversion for fog formation. Hi res
guidance suggests that fog will be more patchy than widespread
while areas along to the coastal plain may see locally dense fog
with visibility reduced to 1/2 mile at times. In addition to
fog bringing reduced visibility into the morning commute,
surface temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s may allow for
untreated surfaces to develop a glaze of ice, but confidence
remains low for this possibility. Mostly because dewpoints
remained below freezing through most of the day, decreasing
confidence.
Southerly flow increases Friday morning that will bring temperatures
above freezing by mid morning for all areas except the higher
terrain and northeastern zones. Low pressure tracking through Quebec
area will drag a cold front across the area Friday afternoon into
Friday night. This front will mainly bring light rain to much
of the area outside of the higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure passing well north of the forecast area will bring a
strong cold front through Friday evening and overnight.
Strengthening upper jet around 180kt will aid in further deepening
of this low, with mid and low level jets responding. The latest
HREF mean brings a corridor of 55 to 65kt winds at 850 mb across
the area Friday night, with strong gusts expected for the
Whites and the western Maine Mountains
With the wind shifting and cold air advection increasing behind the
front, it will be possible for low levels to remain mixed. This
would mean occasional gusts of 30 to 35 mph at lower elevations
after midnight.
KEY MESSAGE 3 Discussion...
A cold front moves through Saturday morning, bringing in a
drier air mass. Despite highs in the 40s on Saturday, the drier
air mass helps set the stage for a snow and wintry mix event as
low pressure moves in Saturday night.
As we have seen with several other events so far this winter,
low pressure occludes in the Great Lakes, as a second low
pressure develops in the Gulf of Maine. With it still being Day
4, we have held with the NBM forecast for now. Additionally, the
timing is not as ideal as this past Tuesday night`s event for a
CAD set up, with less cold in place and limited evening
radiational cooling ahead of the system. However, the coastal
low looks to be stronger with this system, and would be strong
enough to advect fresh cool air in through the event. So should
the colder solution continue to look more likely, there is room
to keep highs below freezing in most spots for Sunday in future
forecast updates.
This also has implications with the snowfall forecast. Snow
overspreads the region Saturday night, with a wintry mix most
likely through the event across southern New Hampshire. But then
a lull is likely as the dry slot moves in aloft. During this
timeframe, freezing drizzle and some wintry mixed showers would
be likely across the region. Whether or not we see a second
round of steadier precip on Sunday from the coastal low remains
the largest item of uncertainty at this time. Given the
uncertainty, the forecast remains with rain/snow wording until
the finer details can be sorted out with more available high res
guidance.
Cooler air then follows behind the system for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Cigs generally stay VFR through
midnight, except at KHIE where MVFR cigs will continue. VFR will
continue until around 06Z tonight with clearing skies. Areas
that experience clear skies into tonight will allow for patchy
fog/freezing fog to develop but confidence remains low still, so
kept visibilities mostly in the 2 to 3 mile range. Temperatures
rise above freezing and increasing southerly flow will mix out
any fog with conditions briefly improving to VFR mid morning
into early afternoon. Clouds thicken and lower Friday afternoon
bringing MVFR cigs pushing in from south to north.
Outlook:
Friday night: Light rain showers and low ceilings as warm air
overruns the snowpack in place.
Saturday: VFR, then restrictions and mixed precip possible by late
afternoon across southern NH terminals.
Saturday night: Snow and wintry mix, with IFR conditions likely.
Sunday: Periods of snow, wintry mix, and freezing drizzle. IFR
conditions likely.
Sunday night: Gradual improvement back to MVFR and VFR overnight,
with MVFR most likely to linger at HIE
Monday: VFR at most terminals, with improvement to VFR possible at
HIE by the afternoon.
Monday Night: VFR conditions likely.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure slides south of the waters through tonight with
winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds. High pressure
continues to move east Friday afternoon as a cold front
approaches and then crosses Friday night. Southerly winds will
reach 25 kts by Friday afternoon and then shift SW Friday when
winds could gust to Gale force.
Seas subside Saturday morning as high pressure quickly crosses
the waters. Low pressure develops and tracks through the Gulf of
Maine Saturday night and Sunday, with marginal SCA conditions
possible in northeast flow on Sunday. The low deepens across
Atlantic Canada Sunday night, with westerly gales possible late
Sunday night and Monday. Winds ease and shift to southwesterly
ahead of an approaching cold front Monday night through Tuesday
night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
ANZ150>152.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Schroeter
AVIATION...Clair/Dumont
MARINE...Clair/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
