NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KGYX 271127
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
727 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Winds turn southwesterly on Saturday with a warming trend
expected over the weekend into early next week. A weak front
will bring a few widely scattered showers Saturday night into
Sunday. Monday will be warm away from the coast, with cooler
temperatures along the coast where the sea breeze develops.
Expect a better chance of showers on Tuesday along with cooler
temperatures. Wednesday looks fair but still on the cool side,
with warmer weather returning by Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM Update... Other than loading in the latest observations
and smoothing trends, no significant changes were made at this
time. Temperatures are already beginning to quickly warm under
the high late April sun angle.
Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this Saturday
morning shows mainly clear skies over the local area with the
leading edge of cirrus now moving across western VT and MA. This
cirrus shield is riding over an h5 ridge axis with sfc low
pressure located well to our west over the Upper Midwest.
Current temperatures are currently into the 20s and 30s and a
few additional degrees of cooling can be expected through
sunrise.
Surface high pressure will begin to shift to our east today,
which will result in southerly flow at the surface. Increasing
WAA aloft will allow 925 mb temperatures to warm to around
+14C. High-altitude cirrus will increase from west to east
through this morning but the airmass will remain dry and
therefore it will be another dry day. Relative humidity values
across the interior will once again fall well into the 20s
percent range with higher values both along the coast as well as
behind a developing sea breeze that will move inland during the
mid to late afternoon. Deep mixing will allow high temperatures
to warm into the lower to middle 60s across the interior with an
isolated 70 degree reading possible. Along the coast,
temperatures will top out mainly in the 50s due to the earlier
onset of onshore flow. Will be sending out another SPS later
this morning to highlight the potential danger of the still very
cold lake temperatures across the interior despite the warm
afternoon air temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Clouds will continue to increase tonight along with low to mid-
level moisture. A narrow vorticity maximum will swing across the
region overnight, allowing for scattered rain showers. The
greatest potential for showers will be across south-central NH
and into northwestern ME. It will otherwise be a quiet and more
mild night as overnight lows only fall into the 30s to lower
40s.
Sunday will feature partly sunny skies south of the mountains
with mainly cloudy skies across the north and the mountains
themselves. A positively tilted h5 ridge axis will remain
overhead but we will be on the northern periphery with a few
weak waves of energy crossing through. This will allow for
isolated to widely scattered showers through the day, although
much of the day will be dry. Southerly winds will persist,
keeping the coast mostly into the 50s while the interior once
again warms well into the 60s with a few lower 70s possible in
southern NH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The trend is for the 500 MB pattern across the N Hemisphere to
become more amplified, with more lows closing off, as the N
stream continue to shift slowly poleward. This will also slow
down the flow across the mid latitudes as well. Mostly, this
will lead to an overall warming trend for 850 MB temps, but some
cooler days can be expected thanks to onshore flow of NE flow.
For the most part will see some threat for showers around
Tuesday, and again at the end of the week.
Sun night may see a few showers in the evening, but drier air
expected behind a cold front will bring these to an end.
Although drier, the air isn’t that much cooler behind the front
and should see partly to mostly sunny skies on Monday with highs
mostly in the 60s, with low 70s possible in srn NH. A weak back
door cold front moves through Mon night, with just some clouds,
but this winds to NE overnight. On Tuesday, low pressure
develops along that back cold front to our SW, which will make
for more clouds, and allow deeper E flow to develop during
limiting highs to 50-55 in any areas along and near the coast,
and the mtns, but closer to 60 in srn NH and the CT valley. This
wave will produce some showers Tuesday into Tuesday night, and
pull the back front door back to our S on Wed. There will be
more sun, especially in the afternoon with highs in the mid 50s
near the coast to the low to mid 60s in S NH and CT vly.
Thursday looks mostly dry and warmer with high pres passing to
our S. A weak wave crashing into the 500 MB ridge moves through
Friday, with another chance of showers, although despite that
warmer air aloft does move in. but may see more onshore flow
near the sfc. By this time time the forecast is pretty low
confidence.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions will persist through 00Z Sunday.
Light and variable winds this morning will become southerly
during the mid to late afternoon as a sea breeze moves inland.
Winds will become light and variable again tonight with
gradually lowering ceilings and scattered -SHRA. The greatest
potential for restrictions and showers will be over NH TAF sites
with VFR continuing over ME sites. Widely scattered -SHRA will
then remain possible on Sunday but most TAF sites will remain
dry. No LLWS is expected.
Long Term...Some tempo MVFR possible Sun evening in showers but
should return to VFR late, which should hold into Monday night.
Flight restrictions possible in showers and low cigs Tuesday
into Tuesday night with VFR on Wed.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below thresholds hazardous
to small crafts through the period as high pressure moves over
the waters.
Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria Sun night through
Wed.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
