NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
970
FXUS61 KGYX 041835
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded Winter Weather Advisories to northern Grafton and
northern Carroll for light freezing rain tomorrow. Otherwise
forecast remains on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another round of soaking rain is expected Sunday, with a
wintry mix possible in the mountains.
2. After a cooler and mostly dry Monday, expect low to medium
chances for light snow or rain on Tuesday. The rest of the work week
will feature warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions with
precipitation chances possibly increasing Friday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A warm front will move northeastward tonight, allowing for a deep
warm layer in the low-levels to develop. Cold air will linger at the
surface across the interior, and will allow for the potential to see
freezing rain and some sleet over the mountains by Sunday morning.
The cold air dam will break quickly on Sunday morning as the cold
front moves in from northwest to southeast. This will allow for a
transition from wintry mix to all rain across interior areas. By
the time the cold front arrives in northern New England, there will
be very little instability to work with, so the front will likely
pass in the form of some scattered to numerous showers in the first
half of the day Sunday. Freezing rain accumulations in this setup
will likely be higher in the mountains, because the warm air
aloft looks to be up near 700mb, compared to the 800-850mb warm
air positioning that is more commonplace earlier on in the
winter. This may allow for slick travel in the White Mountain
notches, and have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory further
south.
Things dry out behind the cold front for most, but northwesterly
winds may churn up some upslope rain and snow showers in the
mountains. Temperatures are expected to sharply cool off for
the start of next week.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Broad mean troughing will be in place to start the work week across
the eastern half of the CONUS. This will mean cooler temperatures
and increasing clouds, especially in and around the mountains with a
stiff westerly breeze in the forecast. This pattern could also lead
to some isolated/scattered mountain snow showers through the day
with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Highs will range from the low
to mid 30s north, to the upper 40s and lower 50s south.
The next wave then approaches on Tuesday as the main trough axis
moves overhead which will lead to our next low to medium
precipitation chances. While some rain may mix in across southern
New Hampshire and coastal Maine, a dusting to a half inch or so will
be possible over much of the rest of New Hampshire and portions the
Foothills and Interior of Maine. The highest terrain could
potentially see an inch or two. Precipitation should move out by the
evening hours.
High pressure then dominates the weather pattern Wednesday before
the next longwave trough starts to approach the region and we
transition back into southwest flow aloft to end the work week.
While specifics are still unclear this far out, it looks like we
will see the next chances for precipitation in the Friday through
Sunday timeframe.
Regarding temperatures, cool highs remain in place on Tuesday with
highs ranging from the upper 20s and lower 30s north, to the low to
mid 40s south. The warmup then begins in earnest on Wednesday and by
Friday highs are forecast to range from the upper 40s and lower 50s
north, to the low to mid 60s south (mid to upper 50s across the
Midcoast). While NBM spread increases considerably by the end of the
week, it does appear that above to well above normal temperatures
should stick around through at least the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected this afternoon, but restrictions will lower
overnight as rain and some wintry mix moves in. Patchy fog
Sunday morning will sustain poor restrictions and conditions do
not look to improve until Sunday night.
Outlook:
Monday/Monday night: VFR conditions with daytime WNW wind gusts
between 25-30 kts possible. Low chance of a snow shower at HIE.
Tuesday/Tuesday night: VFR conditions are currently favored but
there is a low to medium chance (30-50%) for some light
rain/snow along with lower ceilings. The greatest potential for
this is currently across southern TAF sites. Westerly winds at
5-15 kts.
Wednesday/Wednesday night: VFR conditions expected.
Southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts.
Thursday/Thursday night: VFR conditions expected with a
mountain shower possible at night at HIE. Southerly winds at 5
to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA easterly winds are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Winds will shift to SCA westerlies when the cold front passes
over the Gulf of Maine Sunday afternoon. Westerly SCA winds
continue through Monday morning. Seas of 3-5ft this afternoon
will increase to 5-10ft by the end of the day Sunday. Seas relax
back down to 3-5ft for Monday morning.
Winds become northerly Tuesday through Wednesday morning with
potential gusts in the 25-30 kts range. After winds calm down
during the day Wednesday, seas and winds increase again through
the end of the week starting Wednesday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Palmer/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
