NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
683
FXUS61 KGYX 231829
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
129 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to late morning thinking as peak of the
event for our area is ongoing as of this writing. Headlines
remain unchanged with blizzard/near blizzard conditions
continuing for all of current blizzard warned areas with
localized blizzard conditions a bit further inland.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Nor`Easter impacts continue through the afternoon and
evening before conditions improve rapidly tonight.
2. Light snow arrives Wednesday morning and may impact the
commute for parts of the area.
3. Another storm is possible Friday but confidence is low as
the storm track could range from through the forecast area to
well south.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Impressive ~970 mb low southeast of ACK as of 18Z is moving ENE
with multiple snow bands lifting north and west of the low.
While the heaviest band has remained over the Gulf of Maine and
across southeastern New England...locally heavy snow and very
strong winds continue across the NWS Gray forecast area. We/re
at the peak of the event along the coast with multiple reports
and webcam images confirming blizzard conditions for many areas.
It has been a slow go to move snowfall further inland with dry
northeasterly flow keeping snow at bay north of the Lakes region
in NH atn IZG-WVL in ME...but as of this hour some snow has
started to push into this region. Snow will reach it/s furthest
inland extent in the next 1-2 hours before the low pressure
moves east with snow eroding from the west and snowfall rates
dropping off rapidly into the evening. Winds will shift to the
northwest and remain gusty enough to continue some blowing snow
through the evening hours along the coast. After this...there
should be rapidly improving conditions after midnight with lows
generally in the teens.
No changes to the headlines this afternoon and near term model
trends suggest these should be able to be taken down on schedule
this evening.
We/re still awaiting the afternoon high tide /330pm/ with
roughly 2` of surge observed over the past few hours.
This...combined with 15`+ nearshore waves along the NH seacoast
will result in minor coastal flooding impacts...particularly
splashover as water levels likely remain just below flood stage.
Coastal flood warning remains in effect for York and
Rockingham counties through the afternoon tide cycle.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Wed morning a clipper will pass north of the region, but a wind
of warm advection crosses the forecast area. Any consequential
lift is about 4 hours at most, but that will be sufficient to
produce a light to occasionally moderate snowfall. Snow growth
zone is well placed in the column to produce dendritic growth
and snowfall ratios should be at least climatology if not a
little better. The vast majority of guidance is an inch or two
either side of 2 inches, which given the duration of forcing
lines up pretty well. The biggest concern will be the timing,
especially across the western half to two thirds of the forecast
area. It is currently forecast to arrive during the morning
commute. So travel during the morning hours may be hazardous for
a time.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
As high confidence as light snow Wed is, the storm Fri is low
confidence. Storm tracks continue to vary widely run to run.
Ensemble guidance is more or less evenly split between some
precip or a miss. For that reason I feel the NBM PoP around 50
percent is a fair forecast for this range. I just do not have
any confidence in the evolution of the storm system and
resulting snowfall, or rain in the case for some of the southern
zones is the more amplified ensemble members. In fact the
23.06z deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF highlight some of
these drastic differences. The GFS would favor a warm advection
driven laterally translating band of snow and potentially some
mix/rain threat for southern zones, while the ECMWF would be
more of a laterally quasi-stationary band that parallels storm
track. One, the GFS, would bring a broad, evenly distributed
wintry precip event to the forecast, while the ECMWF would be
more straight snowfall confined to areas near the coast. More
members would favor snow than not, so for now a chance of snow
seems like the most reasonable forecast. Once again timing will
be everything as this event could easily shift to align with the
Thu evening commute or Fri morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread LIFR south of the foothills in snow and gusty north
winds. The winds are reducing the visibility to less than 1SM for
most locations where snow is falling. Along the coast blizzard
conditions continue. Visibility 1/4SM or less is becoming more
variable across NH terminals as winds turn slightly northwest, but
may linger occasionally into the late afternoon. From PWM to RKD
several more hours of sustained 1/4SM visibility is possible before
becoming more TEMPO into the evening. The next hour or two will also
be the windiest, with surface gusts of 40 to 45 kt possible near the
coast. Winds remain gusty thru the night around 25 kt. VFR
conditions likely prevail in the mtns. Once snow comes to an end a
relatively quick return to VFR is expected, though some occasional
blowing snow may locally reduce visibility.
Outlook:
Tuesday Night: VFR conditions expected
Wednesday: Widespread IFR or lower conditions expected in light
snow.
Wednesday Night: VFR conditions expected, with local MVFR possible
in the mtns.
Thursday: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday Night: Areas of IFR possible in snow. Confidence is low.
Friday: Areas of IFR possible in snow. Confidence is low.
Friday Night: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Storm warnings continue for all waters into the evening which
will need to transition to gales that will continue through the
remainder of the overnight with lingering SCA waves through the
day on Tuesday.
Wed southerly winds increase as a warm front crosses the waters.
Some marginal SCA wind gusts are possible outside of the bays, and
seas may build to near 5 ft Wed night into Thu as a result. Winds
and seas diminish during the day Thu and then attention turns to
Fri. Conditions will depend largely on storm track, which is low
confidence at this time. At least some expectation for a period of
SCA conditions Fri into the weekend, but a closer storm track could
result in marginal gale force gusts for a time as well.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MEZ012>014-033.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
MEZ018>022.
Blizzard Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MEZ023>028.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MEZ023.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
NHZ004-005-007.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NHZ006-
008>011-015.
Blizzard Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NHZ012>014.
Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Arnott/Legro
AVIATION...Arnott/Legro
MARINE...Arnott/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
