NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
515
FXUS61 KGYX 111130
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
630 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temps continue to warm slightly so any threat of snow and mix
has shifted north too. Several zones have been cancelled from
the winter weather advisory.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain, snow, and a wintry mix impact the region tonight and on
Sunday.
2) 30 to 40 MPH wind gusts possible later tonight into Monday
morning.
3)Above normal temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday while
a couple of weak clippers move through. Precipitation chances
potentially linger into the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1 Discussion...
Dry slot has moved into the area making the dominant precip type
drizzle outside of the western Maine mtns. Temps are largely
hovering right around freezing. While I think freezing drizzle
would be more likely to bring icy travel conditions if it were
below freezing, there is a chance that 32 is cold enough for
some slick spots. For the zones where freezing or sub-freezing
temps are more widespread I have left the winter weather
advisory in effect. Otherwise I have dropped zones where temps
are mostly 32 to 35 degrees. However across western Maine I did
leave a few zones in the advisory where it is warmer with the
anticipation that colder air sloshes back towards the coast as
the occlusion approaches and weak low pressure forms near the
triple point.
Rapid drying takes place this afternoon. However, with a strong
short wave trough moving across the region this evening and
tonight snow showers or maybe a squall or two will be possible
and this could make for slippery travel as residual water beings
to freeze. Otherwise, plenty of upslope snow showers are
expected across northern NH and portions of the western ME
mountains tonight into Monday.
Winds pick up and become quite gusty, particularly across
central and southern NH and southernmost ME where a period of
gusts of 30 to 40 MPH will be possible tonight.
Key Message 2 Discussion...
Winds pick up and become quite gusty, particularly across
central and southern NH and southernmost ME where a period of
gusts of 30 to 40 MPH will be possible tonight. A wind advisory
probably won`t be needed due to time of day (lack of SFC
heating) but we won`t rule it out year and some guidance has
gusts around 40 kt.
Key Message 3 Discussion...
A low amplitude ridge builds over the region Tuesday allowing
for mostly clear skies south of the mountains and for
temperatures there to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s. The
mountains likely hold on to clouds and as a result temperatures
top out in the low to mid-30s. Clouds increase Tuesday night as
low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region. Ensembles
continue to suggest the initial front associated with this
system is moisture starved, with QPF less than a tenth of an
inch. A light snow shower is possible in the mountains with some
liquid sprinkles possible from the foothills southward.
Southwesterly flow continues Wednesday as a trough begins to
dig into the central U.S. allowing this to be the warmest day of
the week despite mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures climb
into the low to mid-40s south of the mountains, and into the
mid- to upper 30s to the north. As the low pressure passes to
the north it drags another frontal boundary through and
ensembles support a little bit more moisture with this one.
After a warm day most locations likely see light rain to start,
but this transitions to light snow from north to south as the
night goes on. Ensemble mean QPF is currently suggesting QPF
closer to 0.20", so better accumulation would be anticipated,
but would still be light. The trough axis slowly moves closer to
the region possibly providing enough forcing to allow light
snow to continue into the day Thursday.
Global deterministic models have been flip flopping on the
potential for an impactful system late in the work week, but
support in their respective ensembles has consistently been
lacking in the last handful of runs. It is going to depend on
how this aforementioned trough digging in evolves as it pushes
near the East Coast, but if I`m being honest the support is
better for something late in the weekend time frame. There is
plenty to watch as the pattern stays active, and we will
continue to keep an eye on trends.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR quickly drop to IFR as precip spreads from south to north
through tonight. Mainly rain is expected at MHT and PSM, CON and
PWM with periods of rain, snow, and pellets are likely at, LEB,
and RKD. Snow and pellets are likely at HIE and AUG, with
freezing rain also possible at AUG and HIE. Precip ends as snow
Sunday morning at most terminals, with IFR continuing through
midday. Light snow continues at HIE and AUG into the afternoon.
Improvement to MVFR is likely by late tomorrow afternoon, with
VFR returning tomorrow night. HIE and LEB likely hold on to MVFR
ceilings through Monday with upslope snow showers likely.
Outlook:
Monday night: VFR prevails at most terminals. MVFR possible at
HIE.
Tuesday: VFR prevails at most terminals. MVFR possible at HIE.
Tuesday night: IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE.
Wednesday: LEB and HIE gradually improve to MVFR as snow tapers off.
MVFR prevails at all other terminals.
Wednesday night: IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR
restrictions more likely at other terminals in light rain early but
could lower to IFR overnight as rain transitions to snow.
Thursday: IFR possibly lifts to MVFR at LEB and HIE. MVFR elsewhere
as light precipitation lingers.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Maine today, bringing
SCA conditions in northeasterly flow today. Winds shift to
westerly late today, and strengthen to gales across the outer
waters as the low deepens across the Canadian Maritimes tonight
into Monday.
An active weather pattern may keep seas 5ft+ through next week
with frequent periods of wind gusts greater then 25kts as well.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-033.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ150-
152-154.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for
ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
