NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
480
FXUS61 KGYX 021851
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
251 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little changes needed to the going forecast for tonight into Friday
based on today`s model guidance. The Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for interior western Maine and central to northern NH for
light icing and slick travel into the Friday morning commute.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A wintry mix and slick travel remains likely tonight into Friday
morning across interior western ME and central and northern NH.
There is limited threat for power outages over portions of
northern NH and the western ME mountains as winds could become
gusty late tonight into Friday morning.
2. Temperatures remain above normal over the weekend with rain
likely from Saturday night into Sunday night. A return to drier
weather is then likely into the middle of next week with near to a
little below normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Latest radar imagery is showing light returns moving across
central and NH at this hour, and even though hi-res guidance
isn`t really picking up on this, it may move into western ME
here before too long. Most of this will be light rain, but snow
or sleet could mix in it at times. Precipitation chances further
ramp up this evening and tonight as low pressure moves across
the Great Lakes and a warm front lifts northward through the
region. Increasing WAA and isentropic upglide aloft may allow
for additional light precipitation to develop over portions of
the area this evening, but the more widespread precipitation is
expected overnight tonight and Friday morning when the better
moisture and forcing arrive.
The low levels will remain cold, while forecast soundings show the
warm nose aloft deepening, supporting a wintry mix of sleet and
freezing rain (with FZRA expected to become the dominant type)
generally from the foothills northward in western ME and then
central and northern NH, where slick travel is possible into
Friday morning. Can`t rule out a brief mix to the south, but in
general areas to the south should see just a cold rain with the
exception of the higher elevations in SW NH. Those that do
experience wintry precip should see a gradual transition to
plain rain as the column slowly warms through the course of
Friday morning, except the western ME mountains should stay cold
enough a little longer.
Also, forecast soundings do show the potential for gusty winds
of 25 to 30 mph late tonight into Friday morning over portions
of the western ME mountains. On top of the freezing rain, this
extra stress on tree limbs and small branches may bring a
limited threat of power outages.
Rain will taper off from south to north through the course of Friday
afternoon with mostly dry conditions south of the mountains the rest
of the day. The sun should be able to make an appearance across NH
during the afternoon as the lower clouds begin to mix out. As this
occurs, it will get a bit breezy with winds gusting to around 25
mph, but temps will climb into the 50s to maybe low 60s. Over
in western ME, some decrease in clouds may occur toward Portland
by early evening, but for the most part I expect the marine
layer/low clouds to hold through the day to keep temps in the
lower to mid 40s, especially toward Augusta and the Midcoast. I
have gone lower than the NBM temps in these areas, but it`s
possible it stays even cooler.
A cold front approaches Friday evening, and then crosses overnight,
generally only bringing a few additional showers in the mountains.
For the rest of the area, patchy fog is possible out ahead of the
front, but this will clear out with the west to northwest winds
behind the front.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A 500mb ridge continues to build through the weekend, allowing for
above average temperatures to continue. This ridge will move
eastward on Sunday, and a cold front attached to a low over Quebec
will follow suit. This cold front is likely to bring a quick burst
of rain to the area Sunday evening. Forecast soundings do not appear
to be conducive for the development of convective storms, but a few
rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out across southern New
Hampshire. Only about a half inch of rainfall is forecast at this
time. The cold front looks to be fairly progressive and with
PWATS near 1 inch, this cold front does not appear to be a solid
rain maker.
High pressure and a mid-level trough setup for the start of next
week. This will allow for a much drier and cooler week ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...NH terminals could see light precip from
time to time this afternoon with ceilings ranging from MVFR to
IFR. Most sites will further deteriorate to IFR or LIFR tonight
as ceilings lower. More widespread precipitation also moves in
tonight and continues into Friday morning with rain expected for
the coastal and southern NH terminals with a wintry mix possible
for a brief period at LEB, AUG, and HIE. Fog is also possible
outside of precipitation. Precipitation likely becomes all rain
Friday morning with IFR to LIFR cigs continuing. NH terminals
may see slight improvement to MVFR between 15-18Z Friday.
Outlook:
Rest of Friday: Improvement to MVFR and VFR across the NH terminals.
IFR to LIFR may continue for PWM, AUG, and RKD.
Friday night: MVFR to IFR restrictions with fog and low
stratus possible through 06Z especially in western ME. Conditions
should improve after a cold front passes, except MVFR possible
HIE.
Saturday: VFR in the morning, with lower restrictions expected
Saturday night.
Sunday: MVFR expected with rain.
Monday: VFR likely, chance of a stray snow shower in northern
New Hampshire.
Tuesday: Restrictions gradually lower as precipitation moves in
through the day.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue over the waters into early this evening.
E/ESE winds are expected to remain just shy of SCA criteria, but
seas may quickly build back to around 5 ft either late tonight or
Friday morning. South to southwest winds then increase ahead of a
cold front late Friday with gusts likely exceeding SCA criteria.
Winds become W/NW Friday night behind the front.
Variable SCA level winds are expected on Saturday and Sunday
with 4-8ft seas likely through the weekend. Winds shift to
easterlies and gradually simmer to sub-SCA levels by Monday
night. 3-5ft seas are expected early next week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT
Friday for MEZ007>009.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Friday for MEZ012>014-020>022-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Friday for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
