NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
470
FXUS61 KGYX 111842
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
142 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow winds down this evening. Models continue to waffle back and
forth on the late weekend storm system, but overall ensemble
mean still has system south of the region.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Periods of light snow wind down through the evening hours.
Upslope mountain snow showers continue through the overnight
hours tonight.
2. Seasonable temperatures prevail through the end of the week and
into the weekend, with above average temps possible next week.
3. A potential system late this weekend and early next week
continues to waffle back and forth on recent model runs, but remains
an item of focus. Currently limited threat for an impactful
system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 Discussion...
Periods of light snow continue across parts of central Maine
and the MidCoast into the evening hours tonight as an inverted
trough remains positioned across Downeast Maine. The trough then
pivots southwestward as it spins out to sea, bringing the best
chance for a steadier burst of light snow to the MidCoast region
this evening. Accumulations wouldn`t amount to much more than a
coating, but do add a fresh layer onto the roads after dark
tonight.
Upslope snow showers continue across the higher terrain and north
into the overnight hours. These gradually decrease in coverage late
tonight as moisture levels drop off, but clouds likely linger
through at least the daytime tomorrow.
KEY MESSAGE 2 Discussion...
High pressure builds in from the west through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. Seasonable temps and mainly dry
conditions arrive on northwesterly flow as a modified Pacific
airmass arrives after traversing through Canada.
Highs generally range from the mid to upper 20s across the
north, to mid to upper 30s across the south. Nighttime lows
remain seasonably cool as most nights feature favorable
radiational cooling conditions. These conditions are expected
for Thursday night through at least Saturday night. Lows in the
single digits and teens are expected, and below zero readings
possible across the northern valleys.
A weak shortwave swings through Friday night, and may bring a brief
period of clouds and scattered snow showers with it.
KEY MESSAGE 3 Discussion...
Attention remains on a potential system for Sunday and Monday.
Models and ensemble members have trended back a bit further north
with this system since yesterday. However, we continue to avoid
jumping back and forth with each model suite and monitor the pattern
as one that`s favorable for East Coast cyclogenesis.
The main source of uncertainty pertains to how quickly a shortwave
in the northern jet stream branch merges with a moisture-rich wave
in the southern branch. Models will likely continue to wobble back
and forth with the timing of this convergence, with a clearer
picture unlikely to emerge until at least late Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of MVFR linger across northern and eastern terminals into
the evening. IFR improves to MVFR at HIE this evening, with MVFR
likely lingering into at least Friday.
Thursday Night-Sunday AM: VFR prevails.
Sunday - Monday: Restrictions with snow are possible. Should the
storm miss to the south, VFR would prevail.
Tuesday: VFR most likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada through tomorrow as high
pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions develop in
northwesterly flow tonight, and likely linger into early Friday.
High pressure then builds across the waters into the weekend, with
conditions mostly below SCA levels late Friday and into the weekend.
Low pressure likely then tracks south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ151.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair
AVIATION...Clair
MARINE...Clair
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
