NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
366
FXUS61 KGYX 120027
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
827 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains on track. Showers are moving through the
area currently and temperatures are remaining well above
freezing across the area.
Confidence is increasing in a warm, wet, and windy storm coming
through the forecast area late this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure continues to move through the area, bringing
showers through the area this evening. Some showers may fall as
wintry mix along the Canadian border, but most should be seeing
precipitation as rain. River flooding looks to remain
relatively minor with QPF not looking overly robust. Winds
westerly winds may gust 20 to 40 MPH in the wake of the cold
front on Thursday.
2. Low pressure exiting the Great Lakes will bring snow to the
region Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. Accumulations are
most likely across the mountains and foothills, with the
potential for rain to mix in towards the interior and coast.
3. A larger system will take shape into the beginning of next
week. This would feature another warmup, rainfall, and the
potential for strong wind gusts. The main concern with this
system are hydrologic, with snowmelt and rainfall potentially
lifting and moving river ice. Secondary at this time are wind
gusts, but there is uncertainty how strong gusts may be inland
from the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system to the west of New England will continue
to bring southerly winds and warm, above freezing temperatures
to the region. These warmer temperatures will be accompanied by
some showers this evening. Most of the showers look to be on the
lighter side. If enough destabilization occurs across the
eastern OH river valley this afternoon, some elevated
convection may move into southern New Hampshire. As a result,
some overnight showers down there do have the potential to have
a few rumbles of thunder with it. Scattered showers are likely
to continue into the day on Thursday as a cold front continues
to move eastward. By Thursday night, any lingering showers may
change over to snow as below-freezing air works into the area.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will travel from the northern Great Lakes eastward
along the St Lawrence Valley Friday night into Saturday. It
will begin to spread precipitation into NH Friday afternoon or
evening, gradually moving into western Maine overnight. Profile
temperatures are below freezing aloft, and would expect precip
types for this event to be between rain and snow, rather than a
wintry mix with sleet and freezing rain.
The low looks to maintain strength as it passes overhead into
Saturday morning, broadening as some guidance hints at secondary
development along the Gulf of Maine coast. Believe there is a
chance for QPF to trend upward should this second low take over.
Improved lift from nearby jet dynamics would support this, and
some model profiles also display a short but intense period of a
crosshair signature of lift through a thin DGZ. At this time,
the probability of greater than a quarter inch of QPF is limited
across the area, with the better chance north of a Portland to
Lebanon, NH line. This also aligns with the quadrant we`d see
potential fgen banding if low along the coast deepens.
Trended the forecast to include more in the way of snow across
the interior, with rain/snow along the coast. Ptypes along the
coast may come down to rates via dynamic cooling (ie dependent
on how the low performs along the coast). However, the
combination of limited QPF and mild surface temps may make it
difficult to accumulate impactful snowfall outside of higher
terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The next system into early next week occurs as the upper
pattern becomes much more amplified. As a result, strong sfc low
pressure deepens into the Great Lakes as incoming upper jet
arrives out of the Pacific Northwest. Ridging results later this
weekend over New England as the deep troughing moves into the
Plains.
This vigorous pattern shift will create a strong and broad
southerly moisture transport through the eastern CONUS towards
New England. Global ensembles unanimously agree that a plume of
IVT exceeding 500 kg/m/s will push along the East Coast Monday.
This would result in warming temperatures and plenty of moisture
for precipitation. In combination with dynamics arriving from
the west, would expect periods of widespread rainfall to occur
through the day and into the evening. NBM probabilities of an
inch or more of QPF are focused along the coast, interior, and
foothills through the forecast area (70 percent). Greater than 2
inches is not statistically significant at this time, but there
is some favoritism towards the Mid-Coast.
With any strong southerly jet this time of year, winds will
also be a potential impact to monitor. Surface winds are of
lesser confidence at this range, but aloft we can start looking
at the potency of the LLJ transiting the forecast area Sunday
night and Monday. The favored cluster at this time (featuring a
deeper trough than the mean), brings increasing 850mb winds of
50 to 65kts through northern New England Monday afternoon. While
model soundings show a low level inversion, there is also
indication of instability through the profile that could mix
gusts to the surface. As mentioned earlier, will hone in on
timing and gust factor as confidence in the event increases.
The combination of warmer temperatures and rainfall will bring
additional snowmelt and runoff into area streams and rivers. As
this is expected to contribute to the hydro system quicker due
to the potential for greater rain rates, lifting and movement of
river ice is expected. Those with interests along area rivers,
especially those prone to ice jams, should remain diligent to
the forecast as it evolves.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR conditions continue to slowly expand this evening as fog
and low CIGs creep inland. That will be true thru the early
morning hours on Thu before the front will mix things out and
return much of the area to VFR from west to east thru mid
morning. Overnight will also see LLWS around 1000 ft for most
locations of southern NH and coastal western Maine. Occasional
showers are possible for all TAF sites thru morning.
Outlook:
Friday: VFR with no sig wx.
Friday Night and Saturday: MVFR cigs increase across mostly
northern NH terminals and ME terminals PWM north. Light SN will
bring limited vis overnight into Saturday morning, with some RA
mixing along the coast as Sat progresses. W gusts up to 25 to 30
kts.
Saturday Night: Trend to VFR as restrictions lift north.
Sunday: VFR, no sig wx. Clouds thicken and lower in afternoon.
Sunday Night and Monday: MVFR to IFR cigs with SN overspreading
from the west. Expect a transition to RA into Monday with some
vis improvement. Gusty SE to S winds expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly SCA winds are expected to continue mid-day Thursday.
Winds are likely to get to Gale Force over the open waters
offshore from Penobscot Bay. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front
moves through and will flip winds to northwesterlies. Winds look
to be below SCA levels again by Friday morning. Seas of 5-8ft
are expected during this period.
Area of low pressure nears the waters Fri night into Saturday.
This will again bring a period of winds over the waters of 25 to
30 kts. A buildup of waves 6 to 11 ft is also forecast amid
southerly wind direction. Can`t rule out a few gusts to Gale
force on the outer waters.
A stronger low cuts through the Great Lakes late this weekend,
with a broad southerly fetch into Monday. Strong low level winds
mix down, with at least Gale conditions expected. Wave heights
are also expected to increase above 10ft for much of the coastal
waters. Winds become west Monday night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
MEZ008-009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ151>154.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
