NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
382
FXUS61 KGYX 280623
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
123 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes for this forecast package. The evolution of
coastal low pressure will be monitored this weekend but the
threat, at this time, seems to remain largely offshore for the
time being.
130am Update...Issued a Freezing Spray Adv for Penobscot Bay
region as winds remain gusty tonight with cooling conditions.
Decreasing winds today should bring lighter freezing spray
conditions late this morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Well below normal temperatures continue thru the second half
of the week. While apparent temperatures will get below zero,
it does not appear it will be cold enough for any headlines.
2. Model trends are being closely monitored for the development
of strong coastal low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
weekend which could move northeastward and affect coastal New
England later in the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Below normal temps continue thru the remainder of the week.
Like previous forecasts the core of the truly anomalous cold
will be centered to our south over the Ohio Valley into Mid
Atlantic, but readings will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal
locally. The same will be true for overnight temps too, where
temps generally fall to within a few degrees of zero. We will
lack the surface ridging necessary for ideal radiational
cooling, but any time winds are able to go calm overnight temps
will likely end up cooler than current NBM guidance.
Not really looking at any widespread precip chances in the next
36 hours either. There will be a reinforcing shortwave trof
moving thru the region Thu. This may allow for an increase in
coverage of upslope snow showers and some of these may even
spill over the mtns into the foothills towards the coast too.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Cold but not brutally cold and mainly dry weather continues
through late week and into Saturday. There`s the potential for
a bit of a warmup over the weekend also. Signals for another
coastal storm continue for this weekend but model spread
continues to be rather wide with fairly low confidence in track
at this time. Latest ensembles and deterministics are favoring
a more offshore track with minimal impacts to New England.
However, we will continue to monitor trends closely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Widespread VFR conditions tonight, but
in the cold advection, northwest flow regime there may be
scattered snow showers. Local IFR conditions may be possible
north of the mtns, maybe brief MVFR to the south Wednesday
afternoon and Wed night.
Outlook:
Thursday: VFR conditions expected but there may be some
isolated snow showers.
Friday-Sunday: VFR should prevail at all terminals with no
significant weather expected through Saturday.
Sunday: Low confidence currently in what Sunday`s conditions
are going to look like as they rely heavily on the track of a
coastal storm. Latest trends are for it to remain offshore with
minimal impacts to the coast, but will continue to monitor
trends.
&&
.MARINE...
Offshore winds will continue into Thu as the coastal waters
remain under the influence of upper low pressure centered
northeast of the area. For a change however winds and seas both
look to remain below SCA thresholds during that time. This is
also allow freezing spray to mainly stay light, with occasional
pockets of moderate near shore when temps dip into the single
digits overnight.
SCA conditions Thursday night will give way to SUB-SCA
conditions through Saturday. A coastal low pressure system will
have a chance to produce gales across the waters Sunday into
early next week but confidence is quite low at this time.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
ANZ150-151.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Ekster/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
