NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
516
FXUS61 KGYX 111144
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
644 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire, but no
other changes needed as this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Most of the widespread snow will move out of New Hampshire
and western Maine early this morning with some lingering snow
showers possible through the rest of today, mainly over the
mountains. The highest amounts are still expected across the
Midcoast.
2. Return to seasonable temperatures expected through the
weekend.
3. A coastal storm is likely towards the weekend but the most
likely forecast remains out to sea and south of the immediate
area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Snow will continue to diminish over much of New Hampshire the
next hour or so but will last a bit longer this morning across
Maine, especially over the Midcoast. At the upper levels, a
closed low is currently centered along the southern
Ontario/Quebec border with a broad surface low displaced to it`s
south. Low-level warm air advection out ahead of this system
has led to widespread light to moderate snow with some heavier
verified rates (~1 inch per hour) noted across southern New
Hampshire and pushing into southwest Maine. Still expecting a
general 3 to 7 inches across most of the forecast area when all
is said and done.
The aforementioned upper low will gradually move east southeast
through the day, generally tracking from southern Quebec, into
northwest Maine by the afternoon, and eventually exiting the
Midcoast by late afternoon or early evening. While most of the
snow will move out this morning, a few lingering snow showers
will be possible in cyclonic flow aloft through this evening,
mainly across the mountains. An inverted trough may also lead to
some more light snow rotating back into the Midcoast late in
the afternoon or in the evening. This activity could remain in
the Caribou forecast area or stay out to sea, but it will be
something to monitor. Any additional accumulations should be
light.
Regarding temperatures for today, highs will be above normal
for this time of year as readings should range from the mid to
upper 20s north, to the mid to upper 30s south. A few values in
the lower 40s are not out of the question over coastal New
Hampshire and southwest coastal Maine. Cold air advection behind
the departing low will then lead to lows closer to normal
tonight/Thursday morning with readings dropping into the lower
teens north, to the upper teens and a few lower 20s south.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Not much to say about temps except that for the first time in
what seems like a while there is no strong ensemble signal for
below normal temps. Ensemble guidance is largely showing no
strong preference in either direction, so that means we can
anticipate plenty of readings near normal. Given the time of
year that means a good number of days should top freezing and a
few may make a run at the 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Enthusiasm for a large coastal storm this weekend is waning, as
ensembles have shuffled a little farther out to sea again.
Aside from any snow showers with the passing upper trof the
forecast is largely dry thru the weekend into early next week.
Ensemble mean still has QPF for the forecast area, but median
QPF is nil locally. This is due to the fact that a handful of
ensemble members are very amplified and bring significant QPF to
the region. That is dragging the mean up while the most likely
forecast remains little if any impact from precip. We may still
see building winds and seas on the coastal waters however.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Improvement from MVFR to VFR is likely
at MHT, CON, PSM, and PWM through mid-morning, and MVFR
ceilings may continue at LEB, HIE, AUG, and RKD for much of the
day. VFR returns to most terminals tonight, except HIE where
MVFR ceilings likely linger through Thursday in upslope flow.
There may another brief period of MVFR to IFR in light snow
tonight across western ME, particularly AUG and RKD roughly
between 03Z-09Z Thurs.
Outlook:
Thursday Night-Sunday Night: Widespread VFR conditions
expected. Some local MVFR or lower possible in the mtns with
upslope snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A brief period of SCA conditions in southerly flow are likely early
this morning across the outer waters. These ease through midday
today, then SCA conditions in northwesterly flow are likely tonight
through Thursday night as low pressure deepens across the Canadian
Maritimes.
After that fairly consistent offshore winds are expected until
early next week. Well outside the bays, towards Jeffreys Ledge
to Skate Bank there may be some marginal SCA conditions thru the
weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
MEZ022-026>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Hargrove/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
