NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
343
FXUS61 KGYX 191816
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
116 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The remainder of the Winter Weather Advisories have been taken
down. Area roadway conditions have been improving and just light
snow showers remain this afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Briefly heavy snow showers are possible tonight as the
frontal boundary pushes through, ushering in an Arctic airmass
for Tuesday.
2. Weak system will skirt the northern tier Wed night into Thu
and may bring light snow to much of the area.
3.Very strong ensemble signal for significant cold snap late
this week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Just light snow showers are left out there this afternoon as
our system wraps up. The frontal boundary that is going to usher
in arctic air for tomorrow is progged to sweep through tonight
and may touch off some briefly heavy snow showers as it does.
The latest CAMs suggest the area to watch is from the mountains
southward and I have added in some PoPs to account for this. Due
to the time these are going through, I don`t expect them to
rise to the level of squalls, but an SPS or two may be needed to
highlight low visibility and quick accumulations on the roads.
Wind gusts 20-25 mph look to also accompany the front as it
comes through Monday night.
Still under the influence of a trough, Arctic air will pour in
behind the front Tuesday making for a mostly dry and cold day.
The morning looks to start mostly clear as high pressure begins
to work its way into the region, but an additional passing
shortwave may add some clouds during the afternoon. It is also
worth noting that strong lake effect dynamics will be ongoing to
our west and the CAMs are beginning to suggest a ribbon may be
able to stretch its way across central New Hampshire and even
into Southern Maine. I have kept it out of the forecast for now
as these can be finicky and it wouldn;t have a large footprint,
but it is something to keep an eye on if your evening commute
takes you north on 93 or 95 through these areas. 850 mb
temperatures drop to -21 to -23C by the afternoon, so high
temperatures only top out in the upper teens and low 20s south
of the mountains, and in the low to mid-teens in the north. Wind
gusts look to remain in the 20-25 mph range through the
afternoon so expect it to feel more like single digits above
(south) and below (north) zero. High pressure further works its
way into the region Tuesday night clearing skies and calming
winds. This combined with much of the area receiving some degree
of fresh snow in the last 48 hours, led me to blend in some
colder MOS guidance to account for efficient cooling.
Temperatures in the north drop into the single digits below zero
with what little wind that remains making it feel more like 10
to 15 below zero. It should be noted that the higher terrain is
going to experience dangerously cold wind chills in the - 20 to
-30F range. Extreme caution should be used if venturing up
there. Areas south of the mountains may stay just breezy enough
to keep ambient temperatures on the positive side, but that
means wind chills are going to make it feel below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Wed night the warm advection arrives ahead of an approaching
clipper system. PoP is fairly unimpressive from NBM guidance,
but forecast models show enough snow growth zone saturation and
lower to mid level lift to produce light snow. I adjusted PoP up
to at least 25 to 50 percent for all of the forecast area, just
so that text products and point and click forecasts will say
chance of snow. Overall the current timing looks to be almost
entirely overnight and snowfall amounts light, 1 to 2 inches, so
unless that changes impacts should be relatively minor.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Much more impactful will be the coming cold behind the clipper.
The cold front will cross the region Thu and then Fri thru the
weekend will feature some bitterly cold temps. Of course it is
the climatologically coldest time of the year, but even then
NAEFS guidance suggests a once every 2 to 5 year type of cold
air mass. Despite the anomalous cold, the NBM seems to have a
fair handle on the forecast. I could see temps needing adjusting
a few degrees, maybe more if we can time a surface ridge well
enough for radiational cooling, but overall the current guidance
is the coldest temps of the season. Both Sat and Sun feature
highs in the low teens across southern zones and near 0 in the
mtns. Overnight beginning Fri night thru Sun night may see
readings below 0 everywhere. The timing of surface ridging
previously mentioned and reinforcing cold fronts will determine
the state of the wind forecast, but it seems reasonable to me to
expect some headlines necessary for cold coming if this
forecast holds. While we have had a couple cold weather
advisories for the mtns so far this season, what is notable
about this cold shot is that the entire forecast area may be in
play for at least one of the nights this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...MVFR prevails this afternoon as light
snow showers come to an end. Some briefly heavy snow showers may
impact some terminals tonight as a front sweeps through, but
confidence on where these will be is low, so they are not
mentioned in the TAFs. Southwesterly wind gusts 15-20kts may
also accompany the front tonight. Interior terminals may only
see these gusts briefly while coastal terminals have the
greater chance of seeing them for a longer duration. Conditions
improve to VFR Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals.
Wednesday: VFR possibly becoming MVFR as clouds thicken/lower.
Wednesday Night: Light snow is likely for all TAF sites through Thu
morning with areas of IFR or lower.
Thursday: Local MVFR or lower possible in snow showers. Otherwise
widespread VFR.
Thursday Night: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Friday: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Friday Night: Widespread VFR, with local MVFR possible at HIE.
Saturday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwesterly Gales are expected tonight, turning westerly as a
front crosses the waters toward daybreak. Seas ramp up to
6-10ft during this time as well. Gales taper off by mid-
morning, but SCA wind gusts and seas will continue through at
least Tuesday night. These elevated wind gusts and much colder
air entering the region will allow for light freezing spray.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible Wed into Wed night in
southwest flow ahead of a clipper system. There will also be
light snow and reduced visibility below 1 mile, especially
closer to the coast. A cold front will cross the waters Thu and
then cold advection will allow westerly winds to increase Fri.
Gales are possible for all waters with gusty conditions
lingering thru the weekend. In addition the very cold temps will
bring an increase risk for moderate to occasionally heavy
freezing spray this weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Legro
AVIATION...Baron/Legro
MARINE...Baron/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
