NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
788
FXUS61 KGYX 081832
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
232 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were needed in the near term as clouds
continue to clear from the area. Most locations have climbed
into the 50s today with a couple interior locations hitting 60.
Wednesday has trended cooler for most of the area with potential
CAD setting up and a warm front slower to lift north.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A brief stretch of spring-like temperatures has started and
will act to significantly reduce snowpack through Tuesday, with
modest dewpoints keeping melt controlled. Shifts in river ice
will have to be monitored, but the flood risk remains low at
this time.
2. A more active weather pattern takes shape from midweek into
next weekend with multiple precipitation chances. The first
comes Wednesday into Thursday and is expected to be mainly rain
south of the mountains, some of which could be briefly heavy and
potentially further aid in additional river rises, snowmelt,
and ice movement. Temperatures cool back down closer to normal
Friday with another chance of precipitation quickly following
later in the day into early Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The 500mb pattern over our area is nearly zonal tonight through
Tuesday , but amplification of a ridge over the Atlantic will
continue southwest flow. This leads to 850mb temperatures
warming to +6-10C heading into Tuesday. Interior areas should
see temperatures mid-to upper 50s. Low pressure passes just
north of the International Border which throws some clouds into
the mix, but nothing that will stunt warming. The interior
southern half of New Hampshire stands the best chance touching
the low 60s. Coastal areas likely see temperatures similar to
what we saw today as a seabreeze will cut off warming in the
afternoon, with the Midcoast ending up the chilliest spot as a
straight onshore breeze keeps them in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Monday night, like tonight, will be on the mild side with
temperatures in the low to mid-30s.
Tuesday looks like the warmest day with widespread highs in the
low 60s. Again, coastal areas will see some seabreeze influence
keeping them cooler. The Western Maine Mountains may also stay
cooler as a backdoor front might begin to sag into the area
during the day. Even with this multi-day thaw bringing about a
significant reduction to the snowpack, modest dewpoints
(generally in the mid- to upper 40s Monday and low to mid 40s on
Tuesday) will keep melt controlled. We will see river ice
decay, but any river rises won`t be significant or occur fast
enough to fully break up what`s out there so the flood risk
remains low.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Starting Tuesday night, a backdoor cold front looks to push a
bit farther south and westward into the area than models where
indicating yesterday with cooling temps with the NE winds behind
it. As this boundary pushes in, forecast soundings are showing
the low levels saturating with weak lift and convergence, so fog
drizzle, and light rain will be possible, but fortunately
temperatures look to remain above freezing at the moment.
Moving into Wednesday and Thursday, we`ll see precip chances further
increase as low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and roughly
along or just south of the St Lawrence River Valley Wednesday night
and Thursday that will drag a strong cold front through New
England on Thursday. With the exception of southern NH,
Wednesday may end being one of those cooler, dreary days with
fog, drizzle, and light rain as models are both slower lifting
the boundary back north as a warm front and also not bringing it
as far north. So we could see a large range of temps in the
40s-50s in SW NH and possibly staying in the 30s for the rest of
the area, especially if we can hold onto the northeast
wind/CAD. If that`s the case, will have to watch surface temps
very closely for any frozen precip.
There`s a better signal for the warm front to lift north (still
uncertain how far north) late Wednesday (Wednesday`s high temps may
be late evening for some) or Wednesday night with the cold front
quickly approaching. P-type is still expected to be mostly rain
south of the mountains, but the model consensus is slightly farther
south with the track of the low, which could bring a wintry mix to
northern areas/mountains and maybe as far south as the foothills.
For QPF, generally expecting between 0.25-0.50" per ensemble
guidance, but rain rates could be briefly heavy with high
probabilities for PWATS to exceed 1", which is close to the 99th
percentile for this time of year. The surge of higher moisture will
probably keep fog going, and the combination of any rain that falls
will further eat away at the snow pack and may result in additional
ice movement and river rises.
Timing of the frontal passage is looking more like Thursday morning
or early afternoon with cold air advection sending temperatures
tumbling downward once the front passes. Based on forecast
soundings, the westerly winds will likely be breezy behind the
front, and there may be enough moisture for a brief changeover
to light snow or snow showers during the day Thursday.
Other than upslope snow showers, dry conditions are forecast
for Thursday night while temperatures trend back toward
seasonal normal for highs on Friday...mid 30s to low 40s.
Another system will already be on the horizon with chances for
both rain and snow increasing later in the day through early
Saturday. We may get a stretch of quieter weather the rest of
Saturday into Sunday, but that is uncertain as ensembles hint at
another system approaching late Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Gusty winds taper off this evening with
VFR conditions prevailing through Monday morning. Around 40 kts
of southwesterly low level wind shear will be present again at
most terminals tonight.
Outlook:
Monday Afternoon: VFR conditions with wind gusts 20-25kts.
Monday night-Tuesday: Wind gusts taper off Monday evening. VFR
conditions prevail.
Tuesday Night: IFR possible from fog, low stratus, and drizzle.
Wednesday-Thursday: Increasing potential for IFR restrictions. Rain
is the favored precipitation type, but there could be a changeover
to snow on Thursday behind the front. Gusty winds possible ahead of
and behind the cold front Thursday, but uncertain of the speeds at
the time. Conditions should improve later in the day.
Thursday night-Friday...Conditions return to VFR Thursday night with
gusty west winds remaining possible. VFR most of Friday, but
another low pressure will bring increasing chances for flight
restrictions and precipitation later in the day.
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs have been extended through Monday night as wave heights
will remain greater than 5ft in the outer waters and at the
mouths of the bays. Winds remain generally southwesterly with
Seabreezes expected Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Wind gusts
25-30 kts are expected Monday afternoon and night.
Wednesday-Sunday...SCA conditions possible on Wednesday as low
pressure approaches the region, but the more impactful period
will likely be late Wednesday night into Thursday night as a
strong cold front approaches and then crosses Thursday.
Southerly gales will be possible ahead of the front as well as
westerly gales behind the front through Thursday night. Another
period of at least SCA conditions will be possible later Friday
into Saturday with another low pressure crossing. Saturday night
and Sunday may see a period of more tranquil conditions, but
with the active weather pattern, this is uncertain.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ153.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
