NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
707
FXUS61 KGYX 241842
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
142 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some lingering light snow continues as our winter storm departs
into the Atlantic. In its wake we are left with a white
Christmas but also some bitterly cold temperatures on the way. A
cold front will cross the region on Christmas Day and aside from
some light snow or snow showers much colder weather will be on
the way for Friday. Temperatures will remain in the teens for
most areas and with a steady breeze will feel even colder than
that. The next storm looks most likely to miss our area to the
south, but some light snow is possible over far southern New
Hampshire Saturday. Then a more robust winter storms sets its
sights on New England Sunday night into Monday. While this storm
does not appear likely to remain all snow this time, significant
travel disruptions are likely given the high volume of holiday
travelers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light snow comes to an end this afternoon as low pressure
slides southeastward out the Gulf of Maine. A gusty north wind
eases this evening as the low pressure departs.
Temperatures fall into the teens through the evening, but then
increasing clouds put a cap on how far temps fall tonight.
Clouds increase from the northwest as a weak area of low
pressure moves through Quebec and into northern Maine. With this
low, an Arctic front moves southeastward overnight, with snow
showers moving into northwestern areas after midnight. These
snow showers likely reach into most areas outside of southern
New Hampshire by daybreak tomorrow. Snowfall will remain light
from this system, but will provide a festive ambiance for
Christmas morning for much of Maine, as well as central and
northern New Hampshire. With Rudolph leading the way, Santa will
have no trouble traveling tonight in the clouds and snow
showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Light snow continues to spread southward through the morning
hours. Coatings are likely in most areas, but 1-2 inches will be
possible across the higher terrain, as well as through central
Maine and into the MidCoast. In these areas, some slick travel
is possible from the light snowfall.
The Arctic front pushes offshore during the afternoon hours.
Breezy conditions follow the front late tomorrow afternoon
through the overnight, with gusts to around 30 mph. Temperatures
also fall quickly through the evening, bringing very cold wind
chills overnight. Lows drop into the single digits along the
coast and south, with winds chills in the -0s to -10s. Negative
single digits are expected across the north, with wind chills in
the -10s to low - 20s possible in spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: Near to below normal temps continue thru the
extended. Bitterly cold Fri/Sat. Messy winter storm possible Sun
night into Mon with travel impacts anticipated.
Key Messages:
-Well below normal temps expected Fri and remaining colder than
normal Sat. Fri morning wind chills will be below zero and
only climb into the teens and single digits during the day.
-Signal continues for widespread wintry precip Sun night into
Mon. At the end of the holiday weekend that could bring
significant travel impacts if it were to occur.
Forecast Details: Largely did not stray too far from the NBM
guidance with it having a fair handle on any ensemble signal for
anomalous weather.
One such signal is for well below normal temps Fri and through
warming up slightly Sat...still below normal. Fri however is a
good candidate for temps even in the warmest locations to
struggle to 20 degrees. While not windy...a steady breeze will
make it feel more like the single digits in most locations.
Fri into Sat a shortwave trof diving thru the Northeast will
bring some light snow to parts of the region. However strong
high pressure anchored to the north means the likelihood is that
this passes mainly to our south. Some light snow may brush
southern NH...but it is hard to tease much more out of the
available ensemble guidance. Cluster analysis shows that
stronger the shortwave the more likely it is to dive farther
south...and even the weaker members do not give much in the way
of accumulation.
Most of the focus is on the Sun into Mon storm system. Current
ensemble forecast systems feature a closed or nearly-closed 500
mb low tracking north of the Great Lakes with no real confluence
present ahead of it across Quebec or the Canadian Maritimes.
This sort of set up then favors a warmer storm with little to
hold the cold air in place besides the inertia of cold air. So
with the expectation that at least low to mid levels aloft warm
up...I have added mixed precip to the forecast for this window.
I am not confident on any given ptype in the forecast...but
there is a chance for a mix to occur...along with some light
snow even in the warmest scenarios. The main concern will be
timing...especially regarding Sun...as return holiday travel
could be impacted. So this is the period to keep the closest eye
on in the extended.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Lingering MVFR conditions gradually improve to VFR
this evening, except at HIE where MVFR ceilings likely linger
in upslope flow through Thursday night. A period of MVFR
ceilings and light snow is possible across Maine terminals and
HIE Friday morning and early afternoon. VFR then returns by late
tomorrow afternoon, with northerly wind gusts around 25 kt
Thursday afternoon and night.
Long Term...VFR conditions to start the period on Fri. Some
light snow may skirt southern NH on Sat...and it is possible
that MHT could see VIS reduced as a result. Confidence is
low...but if it were to snow some areas of IFR are possible. VFR
conditions return to the entire area until late Sun when the
next storm moves in. Widespread IFR or lower conditions are
expected. The lower confidence part of the forecast is precip
type. All precip types are possible. At this time the most
likely scenario is for snow initially changing to a mix or rain
by Mon midday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions linger through Thursday afternoon
as low pressure moves out into the Atlantic. A cold front
approaches late tonight, crossing the waters Thursday afternoon.
Northerly gales develop behind the front across the outer
waters, and persist through Thursday night. Moderate freezing
spray is likely across the Bays, central waters, and eastern
waters Thursday night.
Long Term...As high pressure builds in winds and seas will
continue to diminish...falling below SCA thresholds Fri night.
As a warm front crosses the waters Sun night...winds and seas
will increase with increasing southerly winds Mon. SCA
conditions are possible Mon early...and then gales possible late
Mon into Tue as winds shift to offshore.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-
152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST
Friday for ANZ150>153.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ151-
153.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Clair/Legro
MARINE...Clair/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
