NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
775
FXUS61 KGYX 282351
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
651 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little has changed this evening except the marine forecast. We
hoisted a SCA for Thursday afternoon and night and also paired
that with a freezing spray advisory.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Below normal temperatures continue through the end of the
week with below zero wind chills expected most nights through
Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
2. A strong coastal low may bring impacts to the coast on
Sunday, but most guidance favors a track far enough offshore to
keep the impacts minimal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Ridging over the area has made for a mostly clear day with
northwesterly flow bringing the occasional light snow shower to
the mountains. Froude numbers this afternoon suggest unblocked
flow, so I suppose some flakes are possible downstream, but the
showers also aren`t that expansive and may resemble flurries
more than anything. A shortwave approaches this evening and
crosses overnight which trends skies toward mostly cloudy with
continued snow showers in the mountains. These added clouds
should keep us from radiating as well as last night, but expect
very cold temperatures to continue with lows bottoming out in
the single digits either side of zero.
Mean troughing continues over the region allowing for cold air
to stay locked in place and temperatures to once again not budge
much past the upper teens and low 20s in the south, with low to
mid teens up north. We see another shortwave rotate through
Thursday afternoon over a newly formed upper low over Nova
Scotia. This provides upper level forcing for additional showers
or flurries, but with no frontal forcing they shouldn`t amount
to much more. Skies look clearer Thursday night as high pressure
begins to build in, but the pressure gradient will be
tightening as low pressure deepens over Atlantic Canada which
could keep us mixing enough to avoid a true radiational cooling
scenario. Regardless, it will be very cold with temperatures
bottoming out in the single digits below zero areawide. Factor
in the wind chill and we are looking at -10 to -15F south of the
mountains and -20 to -25F in the north. Cold Weather Advisories
may eventually be needed. This very cold weather with nightly
below zero wind chills continues into early Sunday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Global models continue to advertise a strong coastal low
lifting to the north-northeast offshore of the eastern seaboard
Sunday into Sunday night. This system may ultimately bring
some measurable snow and gusty winds to portions of the area,
particularly closer to the coast and SE NH, but guidance for the
most part currently favors keeping the track of the low far
enough to the south and east to keep impacts minimal and the
more significant precipitation offshore. We`ll see how model
trends with the track of this system in the coming days as any
shifts to the north and west would bring in higher snow
chances/amounts, and there are still some individual members
within both the GFS/ECMWF camps holding onto that scenario. In
addition, we`ll be entering a period of high astronomical tides,
so we`ll need to watch for the potential for any coastal
flooding.
Once this system departs into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday
night, drier conditions are expected for the early to middle
part of next week with Monday being somewhat breezy.
Temperatures look to get back closer to normal with highs in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Ceilings thicken and lower a bit this
evening, but should stay mostly VFR, with HIE being the
exception and riding the MVFR/VFR line. Light snow showers may
also pass near or over LEB and HIE tonight, but these have been
brief when they do pass overhead and overall the activity is not
very expansive so left them with VCSH. Ceilings lift and
scatter out after 12Z Thursday.
Outlook:
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Mostly VFR expected with some
isolated light snow shower activity expected once again that
could bring brief visibility restrictions if they pass over a
terminal. Northwesterly wind gusts 15-20 kts are possible
through Thursday night.
Friday-Saturday night: A few snow showers and MVFR ceilings at HIE,
but otherwise VFR is expected.
Sunday-Sunday night: A coastal storm may bring flight restrictions
to portions of the region, but to what degree remains of low
confidence as it is dependent on how far offshore the storm system
ends up tracking.
Monday: MVFR possible at HIE, but VFR expected elsewhere.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds are expected through Thursday night.
Deepening low pressure over atlantic Canada brings wind gusts
25-30 kts to the waters as early as Thursday evening, lasting
until at least early Friday morning. Seas are expected to
remain below 5ft during this time.
Marginal SCA conditions possible with W/WNW winds gusting to around
25 kt on Friday, but these winds diminish Friday night and Saturday.
A strengthening low is then expected to emerge off the southeast US
coast Saturday night and then lift N/NNE Sunday into Sunday night.
Although the forecast track will still fluctuate in the coming days,
gales are increasingly likely over the waters with a possibility of
storm force gusts. Northwesterly gales may persist into Monday as
the low lifts into the Canadian Maritimes, but then conditions are
expected to improve Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for
ANZ150>152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs/Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
