NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
795
FXUS61 KGYX 120012
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
712 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 7 PM have updated PoPs and Wx for the next few hours based
on latest radar imagery showing an area of moderate to heavy
snow showers moving southeastward out of Oxford County ME. These
should make it to the coast. A broken line of snow showers also
exists across portions of central and northern NH and we will
watch the progress of these as well. Will continue to issue
occasional SPSs for this activity mainly for low vsbys and
locally slick travel.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Winds become gusty tonight out of the west behind a cold front.
Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible and a snow squall or two is not
out of the question.
2) Above normal temperatures expected through midweek with a
weak system bringing light rain and snow showers Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
3) Temperatures trend colder the second half of the week with
potential for more widespread wintry precipitation Thursday into
Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
As one low continues moving out to sea, another will move off to our
north which will keep the weather unsettled across the forecast
area. Dry slotting in between the two lows will give us a little bit
of break in precipitation, but should see some more snow showers later
today.
The northern low will drag a surface boundary across the forecast
area tonight, shifting winds to out of the west as they become gusty
on the backside. Forecast soundings continue to show the potential
for widespread 30 to 40 mph gusts through Monday morning. Snow
shower activity will also continue behind the front in upslope flow.
RAP snow squall parameters generally max out over central and
southern New Hampshire overnight, so a couple of snow squalls are
not out of the question. While snow showers will mainly be in the
mountains, forecast Froude numbers greater than 1 overnight suggest
the potential for some showers making their way out of the
mountains, possibly into the better environment for squalls.
That being said, it appears the best environment for snow
squalls will mainly be south of our area. Winds will gradually
diminish through the day on Monday, but plenty of upslope snow
showers continue in the mountains.
Regarding temperatures, tonight`s lows will range from the upper
single digits north, to the upper teens and lower 20s south. Behind
the front, Monday`s highs are forecast to range from the lower 20s
north, to the low/mid 30s south. Monday night lows will mainly dip
into the upper teens to mid 20s.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Above normal temperatures expected through midweek with a weak
system bringing light rain and snow showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
South to southwest flow and WAA increases Tuesday and Wednesday as
low pressure tracks across Quebec and sends a cold front toward New
England. Highs are expected to reach the mid 30s to low 40s Tuesday
with low to mid 40s possible south of the mountains on Wednesday.
QPF is expected to be light with the low and front...generally a
tenth of an inch or less with the higher amounts across the north.
This may produce an inch or two of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the north and mostly rain to the south, although
there still could be flakes mixing in at times, especially toward
the foothills.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Global models and ensembles are in pretty good agreement for
the second half of the workweek in depicting a 500mb trough
digging into the Mid-Atlantic and closing off before lifting to
the northeast and developing a coastal low. This will bring the
next opportunity for widespread precipitation to New England
starting as a early as Wednesday night and then into Thursday
and Friday. Initially, ptype may be more of a rain and snow mix
Wednesday night, but temperature profiles are expected to cool
as the low begins to close off and high pressure to the north
help lock in the north/northeast flow to bring in the colder
air. So eventually ptype is expected to become mostly snow, but
uncertainty in the track also make amounts very uncertain at
this point.
High pressure brings dry conditions for Saturday, and there is
already a decent signal in the ensembles this far out of
another chance at widespread precip on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Precipitation has ended across most of the area but IFR to MVFR
ceilings will continue to linger through at least the early
afternoon hours. Some light snow showers will also be possible at
HIE and AUG this afternoon. Southern New Hampshire terminals will
likely see improvement to VFR early in the afternoon with Maine
sites seeing VFR improvement later in the afternoon or in the
evening. HIE will likely see MVFR conditions remain in place through
at least Monday morning with restrictions potentially returning
Monday night.
Outlook:
Tuesday: VFR prevails at most terminals. MVFR possible at HIE.
Tuesday night: IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR
possible in rain showers elsewhere.
Wednesday: LEB and HIE gradually improve to MVFR as snow tapers off.
VFR to possibly MVFR prevails at all other terminals.
Wednesday night IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR
restrictions more likely at other terminals in light rain early but
could lower to IFR if rain transitions to snow.
Thursday and Friday: More widespread precipitation (mostly snow) and
IFR flight restrictions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
moving out to sea today. Westerly winds increase late today and
strengthen to gales across the outer waters as another low
deepens across the Canadian Maritimes tonight into Monday. Gales
should relax through the afternoon on Monday but SCA conditions
will remain possible through Monday night. SCA conditions
remain likely in the bays as well today through at least Monday.
Tuesday-Sunday...Conditions may briefly fall below SCA levels early
Tuesday, but S-SW winds likely increase back to SCA levels later in
the day through Wednesday as low pressure passes to the north and a
frontal boundary potentially stalls somewhere in the vicinity. Low
pressure lifting to the north or northeast along this boundary will
likely bring additional periods of SCA conditions and possibly gales
through late week. High pressure brings brief improvement Saturday
before another system potentially approaches Sunday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Ekster/Hargrove
AVIATION...
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
