NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
185
FXUS61 KGYX 040632
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
232 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes in the short term. Some increase in
potential light snowfall late Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially across southern locations.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another round of soaking rain is expected Sunday, with a
wintry mix possible in the mountains.
2. Drier and cooler weather is expected on Monday. There is
then a low potential for some light snow or rain on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. This will be followed by mainly dry conditions
and moderating temperatures through the remainder of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The next precip event will arrive late tonight and Sun, as low
pressure tracks across southern Quebec. Model guidance agrees
the strongest forcing and highest QPF will be north and west of
the forecast area. However, ensemble guidance also is fairly
consistent that a solid soaking QPF event is likely for the
forecast area. There is roughly a 3 in 4 chance that most areas
will see between 0.25 and 0.5 inches liquid by the time things
are all said and done. I say liquid equivalent because there is
a question of how cold do temps get in the interim between cold
frontal passage and onset of precip. Mesoscale model guidance
drops readings across the north below freezing this morning and
then barely bring them up above freezing during the afternoon.
This is especially true for the western Maine mtns. Temps then
sink back a few more degrees this evening before showers arrive
with the mid level warm front. The Winter Weather Advisory
covers this area nicely already, and I do not foresee a reason
to expand at this time. Across those same northern zones precip
may end as snow showers, as the next cold front comes thru and
mixes out the low level inversion.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will allow for a dry but cool day on Monday with
northwesterly wind gusts up to 25-30 mph. High temperatures will
be into the 30s across the north with 40s to near 50 degrees
south. It will remain dry on Monday night with lows mostly into
the 20s. Attention then turns towards Tuesday as there is some
increasing potential that a weak wave of low pressure may ride
far enough north at the base of an H5 s/wv trof axis to bring
some light precipitation to the region. Temperature profiles
currently support mainly snow but with the high April sun angle
and marginal surface temperatures, accumulations during the
daytime will be tough to achieve. Light snow and/or rain may
continue through Tuesday evening before ending overnight. There
remains significant forecast uncertainty though and Tuesday
could become another dry day. Regardless, Tuesday night will be
cold with lows falling into the teens across the north with
lower to middle 20s south.
Geopotential heights are then progged to increase Wednesday
through the end of the week as flow becomes increasingly out of
the southwest. This will allow for a gradual moderating trend
with temperatures potentially becoming above average by the end
of the week. Mainly dry conditions also are likely.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the warm sector ahead of the cold front, patchy LIFR
conditions in fog and low CIGs continues. As the front comes
thru conditions will mix out quickly to VFR. The exception will
be north of the mtns, where MVFR CIGs develop and continue thru
morning. VFR conditions expected for most of the day otherwise.
Outlook:
Saturday Night: Areas of IFR or lower develop again in onshore
flow. Showers possible thru the night, some freezing rain or
sleet possible for HIE and points northeast.
Sunday: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers as cold front
crosses the region.
Sunday Night: Return to VFR conditions, except for mtns where
MVFR CIGs may linger.
Monday/Monday Night: VFR conditions with daytime NW wind gusts
between 25-30 kts possible.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night: VFR conditions are currently favored but
there is a low chance (30-50%) for some light rain/snow along
with lower ceilings. The greatest potential for this is
currently across southern TAF sites. Westerly winds at 5-15
kts.
Wednesday/Wednesday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front crossing the waters will have offshore winds
gusting to around 25 kt thru the mid morning. Later today winds
will turn back onshore and steadily increase thru Sun as another
storm approaches. SCA remains in effect for the westerly winds
thru morning, but a new SCA or extension is likely for the
onshore winds thru Sun night.
Westerly wind gusts up to 30 kts are possible on Monday before
becoming northerly Tuesday night-Wed AM with gusts between 25-30
kts possible. Elevated seas of 3-7 ft outside of the bays are
also possible on Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for NHZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-
152.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ151-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Legro/Tubbs
AVIATION...Legro/Tubbs
MARINE...Legro/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
