NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
650
FXUS61 KGYX 090637
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
237 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package update.
Temperatures have trended warmer today and Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry weather combined with temperatures climbing into
the upper 50s to 60s will act to significantly reduce snowpack
through Tuesday, with modest dewpoints keeping melt controlled.
Shifts in river ice will have to be monitored, but the flood
risk remains low at this time.
2. The pattern turns more unsettled by midweek as cooler air begins
to work back into Northern New England. A battle between warm and
cool air then continues through the end of the week and into the
weekend with more chances for precip.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Deep west-southwest flow will allow for high temperatures to
climb +20F or more degrees above normal today through Wednesday.
Temperatures will rise to around +10C at 925 mb with favorable
mixing allowing highs this afternoon to push well into the 60s
south of the mountains. An onshore component of surface winds
will limit the warmth near the mid coast. Dewpoints will rise
above freezing after day break but will mainly remain at or
below 40F through this afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds will
transition to mostly sunny skies this afternoon with the
combination of these elements resulting in controlled snowmelt.
Temperatures and dewpoints remain mild tonight leading to even
warmer conditions during the day Tuesday. Deep southwest flow
along with mostly sunny skies will bring high temperatures into
the mid to upper 60s across much of the area. The exceptions
will be near the Canadian Border with a sagging cold front will
keep temperatures cooler and near the Mid Coast where a light
seabreeze will develop. Dewpoints will be higher than today
reaching the low 40s that will continue to allow for
significant, but controlled snowmelt with the lack of
precipitation. During this melt period will continue to keep a
close eye on river rises due to snowmelt and ice movement while
the flood risk remains low.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The cold tries to make its return on Wednesday in the form of a
backdoor cold front pressing in from the northeast. Southwest New
Hampshire stands a chance to eek out one more warm day, but the
forecast is steadily trending colder for the rest of the forecast
area. As the NBM gradually catches up to the back door front and
cold air damming pattern, the forecast is likely to continue to
trend colder over the coming days.
At the same time, a wave of low pressure rides eastward on
Wednesday, bringing the potential for a wintry mix across at least
northern areas. Freezing rain and sleet would be the most likely
forms of precip, with more scattered shower activity further south.
The best forcing looks to be on the north side of the front,
focusing the higher QPF amounts across northern locations.
The low likely crosses New England on Thursday, with a brief chance
to break into the warm sector for a few hours Thursday morning,
before the cold front crosses in the afternoon hours. Cooler air
then returns behind the front for Friday and the weekend, with
attention then turning to the next potential system on Friday night
and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR is expected across all TAF sites
through tonight. Around 40 kts of southwesterly low level wind
shear will be present again at most terminals through early this
morning. SW surface winds will increase later this morning
through the afternoon with gusts to 25 kts. As surface winds
diminish tonight there may be another period of low level wind
shear tonight. VFR likely continues tonight through Tuesday
Outlook:
Tuesday Night: IFR possible from fog, low stratus, and drizzle.
Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR to IFR more likely across Maine, and
possible in NH. Freezing rain and sleet possible at least at HIE and
AUG.
Thursday night-Friday...Conditions return to VFR Thursday night with
gusty west winds remaining possible. VFR most of Friday, but another
low pressure will bring increasing chances for flight restrictions
and precipitation later in the day.
Saturday: Snow and IFR conditions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
South to southwest flow along with elevated seas will bring SCA
conditions today with winds peaking this afternoon around 30
kts. Winds and seas diminish tonight into Tuesday morning.
A backdoor cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday, with northeasterly winds to SCA or low end gale strength.
Low pressure tracks eastward Wednesday, shifting winds to south late
Wednesday night. Westerly gales are then possible behind the system
on Thursday into Thursday night. Another system is then possible by
Saturday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ153.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Ekster/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
