NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
547
FXUS61 KGYX 031923
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
323 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued across the northern
mountains of New Hampshire and Maine. Confidence for wintry
precipitation has increased for this region Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Amounts and impacts will largely depend
on how warm it gets Saturday, and how much cold air can replace
it through the evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A gradual warming trend continues this afternoon, and even
into tonight ahead of a cold front. Fog, possibly dense, may
result along the Midcoast and Kennebec Valley this evening.
2. Low pressure lifts north of the Great Lakes Saturday night,
spreading precipitation across the area overnight through
Sunday. Wintry precipitation could result in some slick travel
conditions across the northern valleys and mountains in New
Hampshire and Maine.
3. Drier and cooler weather is expected next week, with few
chances for meaningful precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low stratus continues to cling to much of the region as low
level moisture is slow to exit. This likely remains the case
into the evening and overnight hours until a cold front crosses
the region tonight.
There will be a few breaks through late afternoon, mainly for SW
NH where sudden mixing could finally mix down warm temps aloft.
Still have forecast highs into the mid to upper 50s for southern
to central NH by this evening. A little more uncertain how far
north and east these temps push into ME by this evening, but
there should be some turnover to allow a slow anti-diurnal
climb into the upper 40s and around 50 by midnight. Slow onshore
flow towards the Midcoast will present the chance for thicker
fog to return from Rockland towards Augusta.
Cold front crossing the area after midnight should again cool
temps and wick away any fog as drier air filters into the
region. Can`t rule out an isolated shower before dawn, as well
as a quick gust to 30 mph as the front passes.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives later
Saturday evening as return flow again pushes low level moisture
back into northern New England. The parent low will be pushing
north of the Great Lakes towards James Bay by Sunday morning,
with precip ahead of the warm front beginning Saturday evening.
Persistent onshore flow should hamper cold air damming south
and east of the mountains, but cold temps to the north could
remain locked in. This largely depends how quickly Sat highs can
be displaced, but temps should cool enough to bring wintry
precip again across the mountains and northern valleys.
Low level inversion from eastern Coos through central Somerset
would support sleet/freezing rain depending on the depth of warm
nose/cold wedge. Given the holiday weekend, went ahead and
issued a Winter Weather Advisory along this corridor where
confidence is greatest Sat evening into early Sunday. Don`t
anticipate further expansion of this given the warm sfc temps
fcst Saturday. If cold air fails to push south Saturday evening,
trimming may even be necessary. It will be breezy however, and
the combination of freezing rain clinging to trees brings a
limited threat of power outages.
A transition to rain is expected through mid to late morning
Sunday as temps warm into the mid 40s to around 50, into the mid
50s for southern NH. Rain tapers off into Sunday evening, with a
westerly breeze.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Next week is expected to be cooler and drier. A 500mb trough moves
into the area Sunday night, and high pressure looks to overspread
the area early next week. A low pressure system will move
southeastward across the northeast towards the middle of next week,
but will mostly miss northern New England. However, a few snow
showers can not be ruled out across southwestern New Hampshire on
Tuesday. High pressure does appear to move out of the region by the
end of the week, with a potential to see warmer temperatures in that
timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...IFR cigs slowly erode this evening, but
may continue into the overnight hours across southern ME. Expect
some BR/FG to redevelop towards RKD/AUG this evening,
potentially towards PWM but mostly over the coastal waters. LLWS
of 35 to 45 kts tonight will decrease behind a cold front after
midnight local. This passage should start a VFR trend for most
terminals into Sat.
Outlook:
Saturday Night: MVFR then IFR cigs return to southern NH
terminals Sat evening, expanding north overnight. This will
likely accompany fog and RA outside of the mountains, with
freezing/frozen precip likely north of the mountains (in
vicinity of HIE).
Sunday: MVFR in the morning for rain, improving in the
afternoon.
Monday + Tuesday: Mostly VFR expected, a stray snow shower may
allow for a brief period of lower restrictions.
Wednesday: VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue through tonight for the outer waters as
wave heights continue to build. These should decrease into
Saturday afternoon, but onshore winds will again increase to SCA
criteria Saturday night. Gale conditions should remain just
north and east of the coastal waters into Sunday.
Easterly SCA winds are expected on Sunday and Monday, becoming
sub- SCA by Tuesday morning. 4-8ft seas expected Sunday and
Monday, decreasing to 2-4ft by Tuesday morning. Winds shift to
northwesterlies Tuesday night and reach SCA thresholds by
Wednesday. Seas will also increase by Wednesday as well.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 10 AM
EDT Sunday for MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 10 AM
EDT Sunday for NHZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
Saturday for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
