NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
046
FXUS61 KGYX 071835
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
135 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were needed in the near term as a gloomy
day continues for most of the CWA. Area webcams show some blue
sky starting to show in parts of New Hampshire, but with another
slug of moisture quickly approaching from the west, clouds are
expected to thicken again tonight.
Ensemble guidance is currently favoring mostly rain for the next
chance at widespread precipitation Wednesday into Thursday,
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Shower activity increases again tonight as a warm front
approaches the area. Temperatures will be well above freezing so
all rain is expected. A rumble of thunder can not be ruled out.
2. Spring-like warmth to start next week, inducing a significant
but controlled snow melt but with only a low chance for river
flooding.
3. The next chance for widespread precipitation returns the
second half of next week with temperatures returning closer to
seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes Region and skirts
along the International Border tonight. This will drag a warm
front through the area accompanied by an area of rain.
Temperatures remain well above freezing overnight with the warm
front even helping to spike them up a couple degrees from where
we end up this evening, so there is no threat for mixed
precipitation with this round. As the warm front pushes in and
lifts all this moist air over it, it will produce some
instability (models suggest around 100-150 J/kg of MUCAPE),
enough that a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out, but also not
enough to include it in the forecast with confidence. If it
does happen it looks like southern New Hampshire and coastal
areas have the best chance of hearing it. QPF is light for this
event as well with it being more showery in nature, so this
won`t lead to any significant river rises.
A trailing cold front begins to sweep through Sunday eventually
clearing skies in time for peak heating hours in the afternoon.
As a result this looks to be the first of a few days that are
going to feel spring-like with highs climbing into the low to
mid-50s. Breezy westerly winds can also be expected behind the
front, gusting around 20-25 mph. With the warm air in place, and
maybe some clouds in the mix as a shortwave passes overhead,
Sunday night will be on the mild side as well with temperatures
barely dropping below the freezing mark.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low-level high pressure becomes centered well to the south and
east of New England to start out next week while a low pressure
tracks across Quebec that may send a weak frontal boundary into the
area from the north by later Tuesday. This brings in a deep layer of
west to southwest flow that will continue to usher in a much
warmer and spring-like airmass with temperatures likely
reaching at least the 50s...and possibly 60s in some areas.
However, I`m hesitant to go as warm as the NBM from the
Midcoast/Kennebec valley areas with the winds coming off the
very chilly Gulf of Maine, and northern areas may not quite as
warm on Tuesday depending on the front. So temps may need to be
eventually lowered for these areas. No precipitation is expected
with the dry airmass.
To continue the messaging from yesterday`s discussion: significant
reductions in snowpack are likely from the warmth with some movement
in river ice. However, the melt is expected to be controlled with
only a low risk of any river flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The pattern turns back to active for the second half of the week
and the start of next weekend. The first system of interest is a low
pressure that will track across the Great Lakes, likely lifting a
warm front through the area on Wednesday, and then ensembles favor
the track of the low roughly along the St. Lawrence Valley that will
send a sharp cold front through the region sometime on Thursday.
Based on the favored track of the low and the warmer airmass, this
would be a mostly rain event, but the last couple runs of the
operational GFS run are not lifting the warm front as far north
and even try to develop a secondary low near the coast, which
would bring in cooler temps and potential for wintry weather.
However, the majority of the individual GFS ensemble member are
more in line with the northern track.
Not only would this bring the next chance for widespread
precipitation Weds-Thurs (possibly as early as Tuesday night),
but with the warmer airmass and increasing moisture will
probably see fog over portions of the area too, which would
further eat into the snowpack. The 12Z operational ECMWF from today
is hinting at dewpoints around 50F ahead of the front, which could
result in a more rapid melt. So we`ll have to be mindful of
additional river rises a ice movement if we do end up seeing fog
and mostly rain.
While not as warm as Mon-Tues, Wednesday should again be above
normal with 40-50s for highs with more clouds/precip (unless the
cooler GFS solution is onto something), and Thursday should be as
well but also depends on what time of day the cold front
crosses. There may also be a brief changeover to snow behind the
front on Thursday. By Thursday night and Friday, the front is
likely to be east of the area with cooler and drier air moving
in and highs Friday returning closer to seasonal normals...mid
30s to lower 40s.
Another system quickly follows for late Friday or Saturday but
features much more uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions continue through
tonight as moist flow and increased shower activity keep ceilings
and visibilities low. Some improvement will be seen toward
daybreak Sunday as a cold front approaches and begins mixing
things out to MVFR. Toward the tail end of the TAF period some
terminals may even be VFR. Low level windshear is expected at
all terminals beginning around 21Z and through tonight as a warm
front lifts through the area.
Outlook:
Sunday Afternoon-Tuesday: VFR expected.
Tuesday night-Thursday: Increasing chances for widespread
precipitation and flight restrictions as low pressure approaches.
Mostly rain is favored at the moment, but uncertainty remains.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA winds and waves continue through Sunday morning. Wind gusts
fall below 25 kts Sunday afternoon, but wave heights will be
slow to settle and likely remain above 5ft until at least
Monday. Winds will be primarily southwesterly through Sunday
night.
Monday-Saturday...SCA conditions are likely Monday-Monday night as
southwesterly flow strengthens, but winds should ease going into
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Low pressure crosses the Great Lakes Wednesday with a track then
favoring near the St. Lawrence River Valley on Thursday that will
drag a cold front across the waters sometime on Thursday...although
timing is still in question. The southerly flow ahead of and
the westerly winds behind the front will likely produce at least
SCA conditions through Friday, but gales are possible as well.
Another low may quickly follow either late Friday or Saturday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
