NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
473
FXUS61 KGYX 290024
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
824 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow shower activity has diminished and have lowered PoPs
through the rest of this evening. Otherwise minor update to
reflect observational trends.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Scattered snow showers move offshore this evening, then a a
warming trend gets underway for the second half of the weekend.
2.The work week starts off with warmer, but more active
weather. A clipper system will bring mostly rain to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday, with a wintry mix possible in the
mountains, and back end snow showers Wednesday night into
Thursday.
3. The second half of the work week into the weekend will
feature more seasonable temperatures with the potential for
active weather to continue.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A weak front crosses through late this afternoon and evening,
bringing some scattered snow showers to the region. These reach
western areas by late afternoon, then gradually diminish as they
move to the coastline through the evening hours. Skies then
clear through the overnight, setting up for another seasonably
cool night with lows in the teens to low 20s in most spots.
High pressure moves off the Eastern Seaboard during the day on
Sunday, setting up a moderating southwesterly wind through the
Northeast. Temps rebound into the mid 30s across the north, to
upper 40s through the Seacoast. The day starts off bright, but
then clouds increase by midday as a weak trough passes through
New England. An isolated flurry can`t be ruled near the Canadian
border tomorrow afternoon as the trough passes through.
Clouds then increase from the south overnight tomorrow night as
more moisture rides northward, keeping temps warmer than the
last few nights. Lows generally bottom in the mid 20s across the
north, to mid 30s across the south.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure passes well to the north of the area Monday, but a
shortwave passing through the mean 500 mb trough may provide
just enough forcing for some light showers in the mountains.
Outside of the mountains the result will just be some additional
cloud cover. Southwesterly flow allows temperatures to climb
into the mid- to upper 50s south of the mountains, with some low
60s possible in southern New Hampshire and York County. To the
north expect more in the way of mid to upper 40s with some low
50s in the valleys. Low pressure makes a closer pass Tuesday as
a frontal boundary stalls somewhere nearby. The NBM 25th-75th
percentile spread is quite large for 24-hr QPF Tuesday into
Wednesday as where this front stalls is going to make the
difference between another glancing blow and low pressure
tracking directly overhead. The GEFS and Canadian are in the
latter camp, with the ECMWF in the former camp clustering low
centers well to the north. This uncertainty is resulting in
spreads of 0.5 to 0.75" with 25th percentile QPF for northern
locations around a quarter of an inch and 75th percentile being
as high as an inch. This track creates uncertainty for southern
locations as well because if the Euro has it`s way, they won`t
see any appreciable precipitation until the attendant cold front
sweeps through later on Wednesday. Wednesday looks like the
warmest day of the week with temperatures in the 60s south of
the mountains, with 50s to the north. What we do know is that
precipitation type should be mostly rain with the exception
being some early mixing in the mountains Tuesday morning. High
pressure is sitting to the north east so there is the question
could some cold air damming occur as the warm nose pushes in
aloft Tuesday afternoon and create a brief period of freezing
rain as well? This is better worked out as we get into the hi-
res window later this weekend. Lastly we may see some back end
snow showers into Thursday as cold air filters in behind the
front.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures come crashing back down to seasonable normals
Thursday as temperatures top out in the upper 30s and 40s with
even colder highs on Friday (30s and low 40s). However, there is
uncertainty on the strength of high pressure during this time
period which would play into temperatures and precipitation. The
Euro and Canadian ensemble suites favor strong high pressure
overhead which increases northeast flow and would result in
cooler temperatures, but likely drier weather keeping low
pressure suppressed to the south. The GEFS keeps the center of
the high well to the northeast and the reality is that
temperatures probably don`t get affected that much because
onshore flow this time of year is just as cold. However, this
would allow waves of low pressure into the region likely
resulting in showers. Bottom line: Keep a close eye on how the
forecast continues to evolve as you plan for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR prevails through Sunday night.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR for most terminals with MVFR possible in the
mountains. Ceilings trend toward MVFR for all terminals Monday
night.
Tuesday: Generally MVFR with IFR possible as rain and
potentially some wintry mix move in during the day.
Wednesday: Conditions slowly improve as precipitation tapers
off during the day. Some light snow showers may create brief
restrictions at night/early Thursday.
Thursday: Conditions improving to VFR as lingering showers come
to an end.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally fair conditions continue into early Sunday as a ridge of
high pressure builds crosses the waters. The high then moves off the
Eastern Seaboard Sunday morning, likely bringing SCA conditions in
southwesterly flow by Sunday afternoon through Sunday night across
the outer waters. An active weather pattern is going to bring
about gusty winds and elevated swells through much of next week.
While there will be some periods of fair conditions, SCAs will
mostly likely be posted more often than not. Depending on the
track of low pressure early next week there may even be a period
of Gales Tuesday night into Wednesday with seas 6-10ft.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Clair/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
