NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
803
FXUS61 KGYX 061923
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
223 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for southeast New
Hampshire and coastal York County starting tonight through the day
Saturday.
A Cold Weather Watch has been split into a Cold Weather
Advisory for much of western Maine and northern New Hampshire,
and a Extreme Cold Warning for southwest New Hampshire. The
trend has been for Saturday night to be the coldest, when
factoring raw temperature and wind, with Sunday night of lesser
magnitude.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Periods of moderate to localized heavy snow will bring difficult
travel late tonight through Saturday morning along coastal York
County and southeast New Hampshire. Mainly light snow is expected
across interior far western Maine and remaining areas of New
Hampshire.
2. A frigid airmass will push across the Northeast this
weekend, resulting in dangerous wind chill values Saturday
night and Sunday night. Widespread temperatures below zero
overnight are expected, with gusty winds making it feel like the
teens below zero from the coast to the foothills, and 20 to 30
below zero for the western third of the forecast area.
3. A warming trend settles into the region for next week with
temperatures near normal for early Feb. Will be watching for a
potential disturbance to bring wintry precipitation in the mid
to late week timeframe, but there remains uncertainty on exact
impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows one short wave approaching the Mid
Atlantic and a trailing short wave over the UP of Michigan. The
first wave will spawn an area of low pressure that passes well
southeast of Cape Cod Saturday while the trailing short wave
will provide synoptic support for an inverted trough extending
NW of the low pressure system.
We have experienced a couple of these inverted troughs this
winter that have resulted in periods of moderate to heavy
snowfall. What makes this event particularly challenging is
smaller scale nature of the heavy snowbands that form along
areas of convergence between Cape Ann, MA and Cape Porpoise, ME.
Recent runs of the HRRR and other HREF members have been
suggesting some impressive, but very localized QPF amounts in
excess of 0.75 inches within this area of coastline. However,
there are some HREF members that keep the heavier QPF offshore
or south of NH/MA border. Outside of the Winter Weather Advisory
in New Hampshire into far western Maine QPF generally ranges
from 0.1 to 0.2 inches with areas east of Portland seeing little
to no QPF.
Model soundings continue to strong lift through a moist DGZ for
few hours late tonight into Saturday morning across SE New
Hampshire and southern York County that will be favorable for
snow ratios of around 17:1 and snowfall rates around 1 inch per
hour. Closer to the immediate coast, soundings show some low
level instability that could help boost snowfall rates to 2
inches per hour. The going forecast has mostly utilized the NBM
which has tapered down the localized high QPF and resultant snow
amounts. I Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of
central and southern NH and coastal York county for snowfall of
2-6 inches with localized higher amounts possible along the NH
Seacoast and southern York County. Outside of the Advisory
snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast in NH and far
western Maine with little to now snow accumulation east of
Portland. Snowfall will gradually taper off Saturday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Forecast is still on track for Saturday and Sunday nights to
feature well below normal temperatures and gusty winds,
resulting in dangerously cold wind chills.
Saturday night looks to harbor the coldest conditions as
mid/upper jet drapes from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Low level north to northwest flow will broaden across the
Northeast, increasing cold air advection. The core of cold does
pass to the south and west of the forecast area, where 850mb
temps will near record low values based on 3 week centered
climo. Raw overnight temperatures fall into the single digits
above and below zero, with values nearing the teens below zero
NW of the mountains.
Such a strong push of cold air will be accompanied by winds,
and these will be what push conditions to be particularly frigid
and dangerous Saturday night. Overnight sustained winds of 10
to 18 mph with frequent gusts 20 to 30 mph will drive wind chill
values into the teens below zero or colder for the forecast
area. For much of the western third of the forecast area, values
of 20 to 30 below zero are forecast. This has prompted the
conversion of the Cold Weather Watch into respective areas of
Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning.
Values this cold can lead to frostbite in as little as 10 to 20
minutes on exposed skin. Any outdoor activities Saturday night
should be accompanied with plans if getting stranded outside is
a possibility. This is especially true for higher elevations,
particularly the Whites, where wind chill values could fall to
30 to 40 below given stronger winds here.
While the main push of cold air departs southeast into Sunday,
a cold air mass remains overhead through the day and into Sunday
night. Temps Sunday only rise into the teens before again
falling to the single digits above and below zero Sunday night.
This sets up another cold night with wind chills in the teens
below zero, but overall magnitude of winds will be less. Thus
headlines will likely again be needed, but maybe not as
widespread or extreme.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
As northwest winds depart, the area will see a warming trend
through early week. Beginning Tuesday, highs in the upper 20s to
around 30 will be possible into mid and late week.
There is one period of precipitation due to a passing
disturbance to watch for. This is generally mid week, Wed-Thurs,
as moisture or a part of a low pressure system rides across the
Great Lakes. This is ahead of broad high pressure moving into
the Upper Midwest. Should the low be better developed into
Quebec, it will look closer to a overunning event vs. cold
clipper. This means the possibility of a warm layer aloft that
could bring mixed precip to the surface. For now, surface temps
are forecast to sustain snow. Still some uncertainty in
forecast models on the duration and total QPF, but this will be
a period to watch for the next chance at slick travel conditions
across the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday: Ceilings lower tonight with snow
developing mainly over NH spreading into far western Maine. Snow
will continue into Saturday afternoon with periods of moderate
to heavy snow possible at KPSM and KMHT. KPWM will be on the
edge of MVFR/VFR to the east and IFR to the west in snow through
Saturday afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday Night thru Sunday Night: Improvement to VFR Sat
evening, with HIE still seeing MVFR cigs. NW gusts to 25 kts,
slackening Sunday night. No sig wx.
Monday: VFR. No sig wx. NW winds 10 to 20 kts.
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. No sig wx.
Tuesday night: VFR, ceilings will be thickening and lowering.
Light SN possibly approaching region.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast flow prevails over the waters tonight with winds and
seas remaining below SCA thresholds. Periods of moderate to
heavy snow will be possible over the waters late tonight through
Saturday morning that will bring visibility restrictions.
Gale conditions onset Saturday evening as northwesterlies. Gusts
to gale will be less frequent in the bays/harbors. Combination
of a cold air mass and the winds will result in moderate
freezing spray accretion Saturday night through Sunday night.
SCA conditions likely persist into early next week as offshore
wind direction continues.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for MEZ007>009-012-013-018-019-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
MEZ023.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for NHZ001>006-009-010-012-013.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
NHZ008>010-012>015.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for NHZ007-008-011-015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ150>154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday
for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
