NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
367
FXUS61 KGYX 281836
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
136 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were needed for this forecast package update.
Messaging generally remains the same.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mild temperatures continue through the rest of today with
colder temperatures expected tomorrow and into the next work
week. A little bit of light snow is possible on Sunday.
2. Low pressure brings the next chance at widespread wintry
precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, late Tuesday through
early Wednesday. The snow may arrive early enough to impact the
afternoon and evening commute in some areas.
3. Confidence is high for an active pattern for the second half
of the week into next weekend with a strong signal for at least
one round of widespread precipitation. However, confidence in
p-types and timing is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A surface warm front has lifted north across the region, leading
to widespread mild temperatures early this afternoon. Highs will
generally be in the 40s outside of the mountains with a couple
of low 50s readings not out of the question across southern New
Hampshire. Highs will mainly be in the 30s over the mountains.
A few rain or snow showers will be possible across the
mountains this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the
west, but most of the synoptic forcing will remain north of the
International Border. Some guidance then has this cold
front/surface low stalling out over the outer waters as the next
shortwave approaches. This could lead to some light snow on
Sunday depending on the eventual low track. The best chance
looks to be across southern New Hampshire/southwest Maine where
a dusting to an inch or so will be possible. The main concern
will be some slippery travel conditions Sunday morning into the
early afternoon.
It will be colder behind the cold front with lows tonight
ranging from the single digits above zero north, to the lower
20s south. Highs on Sunday will also be colder, ranging from the
low to mid teens north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south.
Below zero lows return to the north Sunday night into Monday
morning, with values only reaching into the lower single digits
above across the south. Highs on Monday will range from the
upper single digits and lower teens north, to the low to mid 20s
south.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Tuesday starts dry but with clouds increasing and then lowering as
the column moistens ahead of the next system. Based on forecast
soundings, enough moisture and lift from WAA will be present to
allow light snow to overspead northern New England from west to east
later in the day, potentially arriving early enough to impact the
evening commute in some areas. Snow continues into Tuesday night but
will begin to taper off late and toward Wednesday morning. Ensemble
means are generally ranging from 0.25" to 0.50" of QPF with this
system, yielding roughly a 2-4" snow with SLRs expected to be close
to or even slightly lower than 10:1. There are also a few wetter
ensemble members suggesting a corridor of 4-6" is a possibility.
As the column warms, there may be a brief period of sleet or
freezing rain and even a change to plain rain, and if this were
to occur it would most likely be across southern NH.
Any lingering precip ends Wednesday morning with a warm and dry rest
of the day with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Temperatures
will be mostly in the 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The 500mb pattern stays progressive from late week and into next
weekend with a strong ensemble signal for at least one wave of low
pressure to bring more widespread precipitation, around Thurs
night or Friday and then possibly another Saturday. However,
the GFS is earlier and more Wednesday night-Thursday. It does
appear that there will be warmer air to work with, but that
being said there are still colder solutions like the ECMWF
hinting at more of a CAD situation (which could end up in a
wintry mix). This will be sorted out in the coming days, but
the main takeaway is that confidence is high in at least one
round of widespread precipitation in the Thurs-Sat window, but
confidence is low on details such as p-type(s) and timing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...An approaching cold front may bring
scattered rain and snow showers to the mountains this
afternoon. Local MVFR or lower conditions are possible, mainly
at HIE. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with gusty
southerly winds. Some more light snow is possible at
CON/MHT/PSM/PWM Sunday morning and into the early afternoon with
localized MVFR visibilities possible.
Outlook...
Sunday night thru Monday night: Improving to VFR in the evening
and overnight as high pressure settles overhead.
Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR initially, but conditions are expected to
deteriorate to IFR or lower as widespread light snowfall overspreads
the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Snow
should gradually end overnight Tuesday night. Also can`t rule
out a brief period of -PL/-FZRA or even RA at MHT, CON, PSM,
and PWM.
Wednesday: Improving conditions with any leftover precip coming
to an end in the morning. Mainly VFR otherwise.
Wednesday night and Thursday: Another chance of widespread
precipitation/restrictions but could be closer to Thursday night or
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Warm advection over cold ocean waters will struggle to mix down
the strongest wind gusts, but a period of SCA gusts should
continue into this evening. Winds and seas will begin to
diminish tonight. However, SCA conditions are once again
expected Sunday night into early Monday.
Arctic high pressure crosses the waters during the day on
Monday, with low pressure riding east across the waters late
Tuesday and early Wednesday. SCA to low end gales are possible
in southerly flow with this system.
The second half of the week into the start of next weekend
will feature an active pattern with multiple systems potentially
crossing the region, bringing periods of SCA conditions and possibly
a brief period of gales depending on the track of the system(s).
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
