NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
710
FXUS61 KGYX 141836
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
136 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased sky cover through the remainder of the afternoon as a
leading shortwave made for overcast skies and some snow showers.
However, high dewpoint depressions have kept much from reaching
the ground outside of the mountains and the New Hampshire foot
hills.
Skies are expected to clear this evening which should allow for
some efficient radiational cooling, so blended in some colder
MOS guidance to hopefully capture that potential. Lows look to
end up below zero in the mountains with single digits and low
teens elsewhere.
Lastly, cancelled the small craft for tonight into Sunday for
all but the waters south of Penobscot Bay. Low pressure looks to
deepen well to our east, so the extent of gustier winds will be
limited.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There are a couple chances for snow showers early in the
forecast period, but otherwise mostly dry weather continues into
midweek with temperatures trending slightly above normal.
2. The pattern in the extended forecast period supports active
weather with generally zonal flow and the suggestion of some
shortwaves crossing the area. One or two widespread
precipitation events are possible, but models are waffling so
the details are still uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An upper low tracks southeastward through northern Maine this
evening dragging a cold front with it. This front looks like it
is going to be moisture starved, but increasing northwesterly
flow could get some showers going in the Western Maine
Mountains. CAMs have been honing in on this, as well as the
potential for them to be briefly heavy. With the lack of
moisture and front being on the weaker side I don`t expect them
to rise to the level of squalls, but wouldn`t be surprised to
see some quick bursts of heavier snow from them as they go along
down through Central Maine.
Northwesterly flow may keep light snow showers going in the
mountains, but the aforementioned snow shower activity should
come to an end shortly after midnight. Skies clear overnight and
mostly sunny conditions should prevail through the day Sunday.
The airmass behind the front is a little cooler, but full sun
should allow temperatures to warm into the upper 20s and
mid-30s. Low pressure deepens off the coast of Nova Scotia which
may make for some breezy conditions in Central Maine, but the
gustier winds look to stay over the waters. Clouds begin to
build in Sunday evening as strong low pressure is set to cross
to our southeast. There has been a notable trend northward in
the guidance with this, but not enough to raise any concerns. I
only say this to justify keeping isolated snow showers in
southern New Hampshire Sunday night as a sharp shortwave should
provide sufficient forcing if we end up with some of the
moisture from it. A weak wave may bring some light snow Monday
night as well. Otherwise, the majority of the area stays dry
into midweek with temperatures trending above normal
(potentially topping out in the low to mid 40s across much of
the area Tuesday!).
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
There are two time frames of interest in the extended forecast
period: Wednesday night into Thursday, and Friday night into
Saturday. For the first one, low pressure looks to ride a
stationary boundary across the northern CONUS and make a run at
the northeast. However, there is some suggestion that the
frontal boundary is more progressive in the northeast which
would slide the low pressure and the accompanying precipitation
to the south. The problem is that the deterministic model runs
have been taking turns with each solution and ending up in
complete disagreement. Looking at the ensembles for guidance
isn`t much clearer as the spread in low locations is still
large, but there has been some consistent clustering in the
Northeast in the Euro suite and the 500mb pattern is certainly
supportive so I am leaning toward a hit. Then the question
becomes what we could see out of it, and that is where the low
pressure location becomes important again. High pressure to the
north is going to provide a feed of cold air so snow seems like
the best bet for the northern half of the CWA, but depending on
where the low tracks we could see rain or a mix introduced
somewhere in the southern half. Keep an eye on the forecast as
details should become clearer over the next couple of days.
For the late week time frame, I will just say that it looks
active, but there is even more uncertainty as models are showing
two completely different synoptic patterns. Currently the Euro
and Canadian favor a coastal storm, while the GFS has a similar
set up to midweek. Until there is some sort of agreement, this
is really only worth the acknowledgement for planning purposes.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...An MVFR deck is moving through the area
this afternoon, but all terminals should trend to VFR tonight.
Light snow showers are possible at HIE through the first part of
tonight. VFR prevails at all terminals through tomorrow morning
with 20kt wind gusts possible at RKD.
Outlook...
Sunday afternoon-Sunday night: Ceilings thicken and lower, with
MVFR possible at HIE and LEB as well as light snow showers
possible at all New Hampshire terminals.
Monday: MVFR to start trending toward VFR for the afternoon.
Ceilings than return to MVFR monday night as a disturbance moves
through that will bring a chance of light snow for most
terminals.
Tuesday: Ceilings trend back to VFR for Tuesday, except that
HIE may stay MVFR.
Wednesday-Thursday: Confidence is low at the moment, but
another disturbance may cross Wednesday night into Thursday that
would bring a mix of rain and snow as well as a mix of ceiling
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Mostly sub-SCA conditions across the waters
through Sunday with northwesterly winds. The exception will be in
the waters south of Penobscot bay where deepening low pressure off
the coast of Nova Scotia may allow for gusts 25-30kts. Winds than
shift around easterly by daybreak Monday.
Winds are expected to stay below SCA criteria through Thursday,
but a system passing out to sea Tuesday builds seas 4-6 ft.
Elevated seas potentially linger through Thursday depending on
the track of another disturbance midweek.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
