NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
999
FXUS61 KGYX 071135
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
635 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall totals have increased resulting in coastal Rockingham
County being upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. No other changes
to the remaining headlines in effect.
Increased PoPs some for southern areas based on latest
observational trends.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Light snow has developed across much of the area early this
morning. Periods of light snow will continue on and off into
this afternoon. Across southern New Hampshire into coastal York
County periods of moderate to heavy snow are likely due to
ocean enhancement from the pre dawn hours into early Saturday
afternoon. Slick travel will be possible across much of the area
and difficult travel for areas in the Winter Storm Warning and
Advisories.
2. A frigid airmass will push across the Northeast this
weekend, resulting in dangerous wind chill values tonight and
Sunday night. Widespread temperatures below zero overnight are
expected, with gusty winds making it feel like the teens below
zero from the coast to the foothills, and 20 to 30 below zero
for the western third of the forecast area.
3. Temperatures moderate through the balance of next week to
near normal. The next chance for some light precipitation will
arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Light snow has developed across much of the area as of this
writing as an approaching short wave is spreading forcing for
ascent over New England. Models have not captured this early
snowfall well and there continues to be a significant spread in
the location of moderate to heavy snow associated with an inverted
trough that develops over the next 6 to 12 hours. Overall, the
NBM and HREF have generally increased QPF over past runs and
this is represented in the latest forecast. Areas from Cape
Porpoise to Cape Ann and towards the lower Merrimack Valley seem
to be favored for seeing variable snowfall rates approaching 1
inch per hour after sunrise through early afternoon.
There has not been much change in the mesoscale meteorology with
strong lift and decent moisture within the dendritic growth zone
that will produce snow ratios of 15:1 to 18:1. Again close to
the coast some low level instability will bring the potential
for snowfall rates pushing 2 inches an hour with the latest HREF
show a slight uptick in these probabilities. The combination of
early light snow and uptick in QPF has resulted in Storm Total
Snowfall increasing uniformly across the forecast area. For areas
within the Winter Weather Advisory amounts will be in the 3-5
inch range with amounts decreasing to the north and east. Snowfall
amounts across eastern Rockingham County into far southern York
County are forecast to be 6-8 inches with potential for locally
higher amounts. I have upgraded coastal Rockingham County to a
Winter Storm Warning based on these higher snowfall amounts, but
it should be noted that areas around the warning could see
amounts in excess of 6 inches.
Snowfall will gradually taper off this afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Forecast is still on track for Saturday and Sunday nights to
feature well below normal temperatures and gusty winds,
resulting in dangerously cold wind chills.
A deepening mid-level trough over the eastern US will allow for
bitterly cold air to move into the area Saturday evening. A cold
front moves through the area Saturday afternoon, bringing some
snowfall. After the frontal passage, gusty northwesterly winds will
kick in, allowing for an arctic airmass to advect across the
northeast.
The combination of both a bitterly cold airmass and gusty winds will
create a couple exceptionally chilly nights Saturday and Sunday
night. The coldest of this airmass looks to anchor itself across
just west of the area, so the coldest readings across NH and Maine
should be across western NH and interior western Maine. Low
temperatures are generally expected in the single digits, below 0F
across the west and above 0F out to the east in the Midcoast and
Central Maine. The additional wind gusts should allow temperatures
to feel as cold as -25F across western areas, -15F elsewhere.
Wind chill values this cold can lead to frostbite in as little as 10
to 20 minutes on exposed skin. Any outdoor activities Saturday night
should be accompanied with plans if getting stranded outside is a
possibility. This is especially true for higher elevations,
particularly the Whites, where wind chill values could fall to 30 to
40 below given stronger winds here.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure builds in Monday and settles south of New England
Tuesday. This will set up milder southwest flow over New
England allowing for a warming trend. Global models are in
decent agreement that a low amplitude short wave will track east
out of the Great Lakes Tuesday night that will bring our next
chance at widespread precipitation centered on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be close to freezing as this system
approaches so the track of any surface low will determine
precipitation types. Latest available NWP guidance suggest a
weak low passing over southern New England that would result in
light snow.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday: Ceilings continue to lower through this
morning with light snow. Periods of moderate to heavy snow
possible locally at KPSM and KMHT. KPWM to KAUG will be the edge
of MVFR/VFR to the east and IFR to the west in SN through this
afternoon. A cold front will begin pushing across the forecast
area during this afternoon. This will result in a quick
increase in NW winds gusting 25 to 30 kt with perhaps some
BLSN. At the moment, this looks to impact NH TAF locations the
most through this evening.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR conditions with some MVFR CIGS
possible at KHIE. NW gusts to 25 kts through early evening. No
sig wx.
Monday: VFR. No sig wx. NW winds 10 to 20 kts.
Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. No sig wx.
Tuesday night: VFR, ceilings will be thickening and lowering.
Light SN possibly approaching the region.
Wednesday: Light SN possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast flow increases this morning with gusts approaching 25
kts by early afternoon. Periods of moderate to heavy snow are
likely through the morning that will bring sharp reductions in
visibility. Snow ends this evening as strong cold front crosses.
Behind the front, NW winds will bring Gale conditions and
moderate freezing spray into Sunday. Offshore winds remain
around 30 kts into Sunday night with continued moderate freezing
spray. High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Sunday for MEZ007>009-012-013-018-019-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MEZ023.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Sunday for NHZ001>006-009-010-012-013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
NHZ008>010-012-013-015.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Sunday for NHZ007-008-011-015.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday for
ANZ150>154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Monday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Palmer/Schroeter/Tubbs
AVIATION...Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
