NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
347
FXUS61 KGYX 291806
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
106 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Cold Weather Advisory for tonight has been expanded to
include southern Oxford county, Cumberland county, coastal York
county, and coastal Rockingham county.
No significant trends in the coastal low with a close approach
to Southern New England with periphery minor coastal impacts
still in the cards.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Remaining very cold through Saturday night with winds chills
in the double digits below zero possible each night. Winds
chills will likely remain below zero in many areas during the
day Friday.
2. A strong coastal low may bring impacts to the coast on
Sunday, but most guidance favors a track far enough offshore to
keep the impacts minimal.
3. Marine weather impacts are expected Sunday into Monday as
the close approaching coastal low brings Gale/Storm force winds.
4. High Astronomical Tides Sunday through Monday and the close
approaching coastal low provide a threat for minor coastal
flooding late this weekend into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Another frontal boundary/trough moves through this afternoon and
evening, bringing with it a chance of snow showers in the
mountains and possibly a few flakes downstream as Froude numbers
depict unblocked flow. Otherwise it will just further reinforce
the already cold airmass as W/WNW become somewhat breezy and
CAA increases through tonight and Friday.
Overnight temperatures are expected to fall below zero for the
majority of western ME and NH again tonight, and we should stay
mixed enough to maintain a breeze to push wind chills in the double
digits below zero in most places. However, even if winds are able to
drop in some places, it will be very cold regardless as mostly clear
skies should promote radiational cooling, although some clouds or
even a few snow showers may move in from the north overnight as a
500mb shortwave dives south. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect
across the mountains and foothills for wind chills in the -20 to
-25F range tonight and closer to -15 to -20F for the southern
half of NH and into southwest ME. For those outside the
advisory area, wind chills could still approach the -10 to
-15F range.
CAA continues on Friday with temperatures expected to be limited to
the teens south of the mountains and in the single digits to the
north. To make it feel even colder, good mixing will result in
wind gusts of 20-25 mph, which will likely keep wind chills below
zero during the day south of the mountains, or at best a few degrees
above. In the mountains, wind chills may stay in the double digits
below.
The pressure gradient relaxes and brings lighter winds for Friday
night, but that trade off is good radiational cooling with mostly
clear skies. With this in mind, I have trended the already cold NBM
(which had lows below zero) more toward the MAV for overnight lows.
Dry conditions are expected Saturday, and even though temperatures
may only reach 20 degrees south of the mountains, it won`t feel as
cold with lighter winds. Saturday night will again be very cold with
subzero temperatures away from the coast. For southern NH and the
coast, temps may stay above zero due to some clouds moving
in from the coastal storm to the south and/or more of a breeze.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A very strong low pressure system looks to move northeastward
over the Atlantic on Sunday. Ensemble guidance has shown a
stronger signal for the center of the low to move east of the
benchmark (40N, 70W). The more easterly track should keep most
heavy accumulating snow offshore. However, at least 2-5 inches
of snow still appears possible along the coast and could skew
visibility significantly as snow should get blown around with
breezy conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Perhaps the most impactful weather associated with the upcoming
storm is not necessarily the snowfall but the high winds over
the Gulf of Maine. There look to be at least gale force winds
over the area with potentially some storm force gusts as well.
The threat should mainly stay offshore. For more details, please
see the Marine section.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Will have to monitor for coastal flooding as we are entering a
period of high astronomical tides. The strong N/NNE winds will
create high seas and storm surge, which may allow for some areas
to reach minor flood stage at high tide on Sunday. The potential
is still there on Monday, but with winds becoming more
northwesterly, the threat appears lower.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Primarily VFR other than periods of MVFR
ceilings and a chance of snow showers at HIE.
Outlook:
Friday afternoon - Saturday night: Continued chance of MVFR at HIE,
but otherwise VFR prevails.
SUNDAY / MONDAY...Coastal low moves into the area, allowing for
substantial CIG and visibility restrictions along the coast.
Less impactful restrictions more likely at inland sites.
TUESDAY...VFR Expected.
&&
.MARINE...
W-WNW winds gusting to around 30 kt tonight and 25 kt Friday will
maintain SCA conditions over the outer waters and Penobscot Bay
through Friday along with freezing spray. Winds and seas then come
down below SCA levels Friday night and Saturday as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Northeast winds increase late Saturday night as
deepening low pressure approaches from the south.
A storm moves across the Gulf of Maine Sunday through Monday. Seas
start off at 2-6ft Sunday morning and quickly escalate to 7-15ft
over the open waters, with 4-7ft expected in the Bays by Monday
morning. In addition, winds start off Sunday morning as Gale force,
strengthening to Storm force by the end of the day. Storm force
winds continue Sunday night and recede back to gale force by Monday
morning. Gales are expected Monday, but should weaken to SCA levels
by the end of the day as the aforementioned low exits the region.
Winds may calm even further on Tuesday. Seas lower on Monday as
well, coming down to 3-5ft by Tuesday morning.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
Friday for MEZ007>009-012-018-019-023-024-033.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
Friday for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Friday for ANZ150>152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Friday for ANZ151.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Friday for ANZ153.
&&
$$
Combs/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
