NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
478
FXUS61 KGYX 162048
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
348 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Cheshire County
for around 4 inches of snow accumulation beginning late
tonight/Saturday morning. Increased forecast snow amounts in
central New Hampshire. No significant changes to the late
weekend/early week potential storm or cold that follows.
Update: Updated marine headlines as winds start to slacken this
evening. Gale Warnings have been replaced by Small Craft
Advisories through Saturday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Slick travel is expected as snow moves into the region late
tonight and Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected
across interior Maine and into central/southern New Hampshire
by Saturday evening. Plan for added travel time if transiting
interior locations, especially to/from the mountains.
2. We are still monitoring the Sun/Mon timeframe for a
potential coastal winter storm. Confidence continues to be lower
than normal due to a large portion of NWP members being out to
sea.
3. The middle to latter part of the work week temperature forecast
remains below normal. Several nights of sub-zero ambient or wind
chill temperatures are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes Friday night will slowly
pivot east, but remain well west of New England. Southwest flow
through the column will advect moisture into the region on a
strengthening mid (100-110kt) and upper level (130-145kt) jet.
Initial overunning jet dynamics should help precipitation break
out over the forecast area, SW to NE, early Saturday morning.
Once the column has been saturated via net lift, precip
continues through the day Saturday.
Primary trough associated with this disturbance remains
positively tilted across the Great Lakes, thus expect the
associated moisture plume to be progressive across the forecast
area. Guidance output for QPF paints a stripe of greatest
amounts through interior ME and southwest/central NH. Lighter
amounts should flank this corridor, i.e the mountains and
immediate coast.
High confidence in precip type for this event given the absence
of warm nose in the low levels. This should be a rain/snow
event, with much of the area seeing flakes fall much of the
day. Rain/snow line will be trickier as above freezing sfc
temps line the coast and towards the interior zones. Thinking is
constant precip rates will promote cooling in low levels to
maintain snow falling. However, surface accumulations may be
hampered along the coast due to the warmer ambient. After an
initial flurry in the early morning hours, the Seacoast of NH
through eastern Hillsborough county should remain mostly rain
for the rest of the day.
For accumulations and resulting impacts, 1 to 3 inches is
forecast for the aforementioned stripe of greatest QPF
(Interior/Foothills and central to SW NH). Issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for Cheshire Co, NH anticipating maximized QPF
and elevation for ptype to be mostly snow, around 4 inches total.
Amounts taper to a dusting to 2 inches on either side: lack of
QPF for the mountains, and lower snow ratio for the coast. Main
concern will be slick travel to and from the mountains,
especially for trips that rise and fall in elevation in central
NH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The NWP signal for a coastal storm Sun into Mon remains strong.
At this time the consensus forecast is for it to stay largely
offshore. Using both the ensemble consensus and NBM guidance you
need to reach the 90th or greater percentile to bring
advisory/warning criteria snowfall amounts to the forecast
area. Similarly the ECMWF EFI does not have a signal for
significant or extreme snowfall for this time of year as of the
16.00z run. This leaves something like a 20 percent or less
chance of a moderate or greater snowfall event locally. The most
likely scenario is a near miss, with up to a couple of inches
along the coast. One thing to note is that both the AI versions
of the GFS and ECMWF show more amplified systems, with higher
QPF locally. It is not uncommon for ensemble guidance to trend
more amplified in the medium range only to drift back in the
near/short term. With ensemble systems that are underdispersive
we have to be aware that we may not be capturing all the
possible outcomes. What I can say right now is that cluster
analysis indicates that the higher QPF scenarios feature a
weaker shortwave that the ensemble mean. Given that this
shortwave in question is already being sampled by the upper air
network I would be somewhat surprised to see large changes going
forward, but as I mentioned earlier there is a 1 in 10 to 1 in 5
chance of something worth paying close attention to.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Strong ensemble support for below normal temps starting Mon
night. While Mon night will be gusty as cold advection increases
mechanical mixing, the remainder of the week looks to feature a
series of high pressure system building towards the region. The
timing of each surface ridge axis will determine the degree of
radiational cooling potential, but overall I anticipate that
several nights thru the middle to latter half of the week will
see ambient air temps or wind chills falling below zero.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR through late tonight. W winds will
subside shortly after sunset, becoming light. Ceilings thicken
around midnight local, lowering into daybreak. MVFR cigs begin
for NH terminals 9 to 12z, with SHSN or light SN reducing vis.
Vis may continue to lower to IFR as snow moves across
central/northern NH terminals and into ME by mid morning. SE NH
terminals (MHT/PSM) may transition to RASN or RA for better
vis. Can`t rule out some RA also mixing in at PWM/RKD and other
terminals along immediate coast.
Outlook:
Saturday Night: Gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR overnight as
precipitation wraps up and ceilings begin to lift.
Sunday: VFR north to MVFR near the coast.
Sunday Night: VFR north to MVFR near the coast. Potential IFR if storm
tracks farther west. Low confidence.
Monday: VFR north to MVFR near the coast. Potential IFR if storm
tracks farther west. Low confidence.
Monday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals. West wind gusts 25
kt possible.
Tuesday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue due to elevated wave heights. Low
pressure lifts north of the Great Lakes through Saturday,
bringing a southerly wind shift and precipitation to the coastal
waters. SCA conditions likely continue through Saturday night
with wave heights on the coastal waters 4 to 6 ft.
Regardless of storm track northerly winds are expected to
increase thru Sun. There will be the threat for snow over the
coastal waters and visibility may drop below 1 mile at times Sun
night into Mon. Winds will gradually shift around to westerly
as storm pulls away and cold advection begins. By late Mon and
into Mon night gale force wind gusts are possible. SCA
conditions will likely linger through midweek.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for
NHZ011.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
