NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
201
FXUS61 KGYX 011901
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
201 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes were made, and the current forecast remains on
track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold weather returns tonight with widespread lows below zero.
The colder weather is short lived, however as we start to warm
again by Tuesday.
2. An active pattern is expected in the second half of the week,
with multiple systems moving through the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
As a cold front continues to move off into the Atlantic, high
pressure will dominate the short term weather pattern, promoting
colder temperatures and diminishing cloud cover. With a clear sky in
place and diminishing winds, conditions should be favorable for
radiational cooling and some frigid temperatures. To account for
these conditions, the NBM 50th percentile was used for tonight`s
lows as it was significantly lower than the operational NBM. That
being said, there is potential for even colder temperatures by
Monday morning if winds relax a bit quicker than expected. Either
way, there is high confidence that we will see widespread lows below
zero with some double digits below possible north. Areas along the
coast may even dip to around zero. While a few northern valleys
could approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria, uncertainty regarding
widespread impacts precludes the need for any headlines at the
moment. Monday will then be a chilly day with plenty of sunshine.
Highs will range from the low to mid teens north, to the low to mid
20s south. By Tuesday, we start to warm back up with above normal
temperatures returning to the forecast mid-week.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A strong high pressure system over the northeast will breakup
Monday night. This will allow for a disturbance to move
northeastward, bringing rain and snow to northern New England
Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Thermal profiles currently
show snow as the dominant precipitation type over New Hampshire
and Maine, with the rain/snow line positioning itself around the
NH/MA border Wednesday night. Snow character will vary quite a
bit within the region. Snow will likely be very heavy and wet
across southern NH and coastal Maine (7:1 or so) with interior
areas looking at a much drier snow (10- 12:1). Most areas across
NH and ME should be looking at around 1-3 inches of snow, with
precipitation moving out of the region by late morning on
Wednesday.
After the exit of the aforementioned system, 500mb heights
continue to increase and will allow for a little more upper-
level warmth to advect into the region. This will allow for
wintry mix, and showers to develop over the area at the end of
the week. Ensemble guidance is still quite uncertain on amounts
and timing but rain showers are possible Thursday through the
weekend
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR tonight Monday night. NW wind gusts up to 20 kts are
possible through early this evening.
Outlook...
Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR initially, but conditions are
expected to deteriorate to IFR or lower as widespread light
snowfall overspreads the area from west to east during the
afternoon and evening. Snow should gradually end overnight
Tuesday night. Also can`t rule out a brief period of -PL/-FZRA
or even RA at MHT, CON, PSM, and PWM.
Wednesday - Wednesday night: Improving conditions with any
leftover precip coming to an end in the morning. Mainly VFR
otherwise.
Thursday - Friday: Several rounds of mixed precip and IFR are
possible through this time period.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are likely on the outer waters, and possibly on
the bays today and tonight as high pressure builds in from the
west and the pressure gradient tightens. Moderate freezing spray
is also likely.
SCA conditions with southwesterly winds are expected Tuesday.
Winds taper off by the end of the day, and sub-SCA conditions
continue through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas do
look to gradually increase towards the end of the week as active
weather moves across the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Monday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
