NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
575
FXUS61 KGYX 201054
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
654 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall amounts have increased slightly for areas south of the
foothills for this afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A wave of low pressure will cross this afternoon into
tonight, bringing a period of snow to much of western ME and
northern NH with mainly rain in south-central NH and extreme
southwestern ME.
2. A colder and more active pattern is expected next week with
multiple rounds of precipitation expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Another H5 s/wv trof axis and weak wave of low pressure will cross
the region this afternoon and evening before exiting by early
Saturday morning. Precipitation looks to begin across northern areas
between 12pm-2pm before spreading south between 3-6pm. Ahead of the
precipitation from this system temperatures will warm into the
middle to upper 30s across northern areas with 40s to lower 50s
further to the south.
This will likely allow for a rain/snow mix at onset across the
mountains and towards the Canadian Border with primarily rain south
of the mountains. A fairly quick transition to mainly snow is then
likely as a result of wet bulbing and dynamical cooling for most
areas from a line roughly between Auburn/Lewiston up through Augusta
and Waterville and points north. Across NH, mainly rain is likely
from the Lakes Region and points south with snow to the north.
Snowfall accumulations of between 2-5" are expected for the
mountains and points north with a slushy coating to 2" for
Auburn/Lewiston to Waterville up through the foothills. This may
result in slippery travel conditions for the evening commute. Snow
and rain will quickly end between 8pm-11pm with some clearing
overnight. A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible as drier
air moves in aloft but this is currently anticipated to be isolated
should it occur. Lows will fall into the 20s to middle 30s from
north to south.
Saturday will feature warmer temperatures into the 40s and 50s along
with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Strong mid-level ridging over the
western US will allow for a trough to deepen over the region
this weekend, allowing for generally colder weather to take
place. Sunday night, a surface low will move along this pattern
and arrive in New England. Mostly snow is expected with this
system, as below-freezing air remains overhead. Wintry mix and
rain can not be ruled out in southern New Hampshire, and roads
could be slick during the Sunday evening and Monday morning
commutes. Models still show a lot of uncertainty on snowfall
amounts, but widespread measurable snowfall is likely. Upslope
enhancement is also possible in the White Mountains and may
allow for locally significant snowfall amounts at higher
elevations. The system moves out of the area by the end of the
day on Monday.
The remainder of the week looks colder and active, with model
guidance trying to hint at more rain and snow through the remainder
of next week. While models are confident in the pattern, they are
struggling to piece together the timing on any subsequent
system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday: Mainly VFR conditions are expected until
this afternoon. Precip moves in from the west and conditions in
the mtns will drop quickly to IFR or lower in snow. South of the
mtns a period of VFR or MVFR in light rain is expected, but
eventually areas of IFR or lower develop in low CIGs and perhaps
some drizzle. Those IFR conditions likely extend into Sat
morning before clearing out.
OUTLOOK:
Saturday...VFR expected. Westerly surface wind gusts up to 30 kt
possible.
Sunday...IFR expected with snow.
Monday...Restrictions return to VFR as snow exits the region.
Tuesday...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected outside of the bays beginning this
afternoon with southerly winds and increased seas before becoming
northwesterly by early Saturday while remaining at SCA criteria
through Saturday afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
Saturday Night...Sub-SCA northwesterlies, with 3-6ft seas.
Sunday...Sub-SCA and variable winds, with 3-6ft seas.
Monday...SCA level northeasterlies, with 5-7ft seas.
Tuesday...Sub-SCA and westerlies, with 5-7ft seas.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Legro
AVIATION...Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
