NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
790
FXUS61 KGYX 101838
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
138 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Details on tonight`s snowfall continue to come into clearer
focus. Another event late this weekend and early next week is
trending further south.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heavy snowfall rates of greater than 1 inch per hour likely
this evening. A widespread 3-7 inch snowfall is expected, with
the highest amounts likely in the MidCoast.
2. Seasonable temperatures follow the system for the end of the
week and into the weekend.
3. A potential system late this weekend and early next week has
trended further south over recent model runs, but remains an
item of interest at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 Discussion...
Tonight`s snowfall event remains on track. Heavy snowfall rates
of 1 inch per hour are likely across New Hampshire by the early
evening hours, and spreads into Maine through the remainder of
the evening. Overall most of the accumulation from this system
looks like it will fall this evening and into the early
overnight hours. The inverted trough we have been watching looks
most likely to set up just east of Penobscot Bay, keeping the
higher totals to Downeast.
With that in mind, there will still be plenty of snow for an
advisory event tonight across the area. The heavy rate of the
snowfall this evening will bring quickly evolving impacts, even
though snowfall total will be less than other events we`ve seen
this winter. A widespread 3-6 inches of snow looks likely across
much of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible
through the hillier terrain of the MidCoast.
Most of the snow ends shortly after midnight across New
Hampshire, except north of the Whites where snow showers
continue into the day on Wednesday. Snow then ends across most
of Maine through the predawn hours overnight. The exception
looks to be through the MidCoast and around Penobscot Bay, where
light snow likely lingers into the day on Wednesday in the
vicinity of the inverted trough. Again, the main focus of the
accumulating snow associated with the trough looks to be just of
east of Penobscot Bay, but periods of light snow can be
expected to linger into the daytime Wednesday through the
MidCoast.
KEY MESSAGE 2 Discussion...
Following the system, seasonable temps and mainly dry
conditions follow for the remainder of the work week and into
the weekend. Highs generally range from the mid to upper 20s
across the north, to mid to upper 30s across the south.
Nighttime lows remain seasonably cool as high pressure brings
favorable radiational cooling conditions most nights. Lingering
clouds and a northerly breeze likely keep temps up Wednesday
night. Then Thursday night through at least Saturday night lows
in the single digits and teens can be expected, with below zero
readings possible across the northern valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 3 Discussion...
Attention then turns toward a potential system for Sunday and
Monday. Models and ensemble members have trended further south
with this system since yesterday. However, from this far out
we`ll continue to monitor broad trends rather than individual
model runs over the coming days as the pattern remains favorable
for cyclogenesis.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Snow quickly brings IFR conditions this evening from west to
east. Improvement to MVFR then VFR is likely at MHT, CON, PSM,
and PWM late tonight through early Wednesday morning.
Improvement to MVFR is more likely at LEB, HIE, AUG, and RKD,
and persists much of the day Wednesday. VFR returns to most
terminals tomorrow night, except HIE where MVFR ceilings likely
linger through Thursday in upslope flow.
Thursday Night-Sunday AM: VFR prevails.
Sunday - Monday: Restrictions with snow are possible. Should the
storm miss to the south, VFR would prevail.
&&
.MARINE...
A brief period of SCA conditions in southerly flow are likely
tonight across outer waters. These ease through midday
Wednesday, then SCA conditions in northwesterly flow are likely
Wednesday night through Thursday night as low pressure deepens
across the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure then builds across
the waters into late week, with conditions mostly below SCA
levels late week and into the weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for NHZ001>004-006-010.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NHZ005-007>009-011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
