NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
717
FXUS61 KGYX 060034
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
734 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Going forecast is in good shape through Friday morning and have
mainly refined near term forecast to align with observed trends.
Cool northeast flow along with wet bulbing continues to send
temperatures near or below freezing across southern NH with KAFN
now reporting freezing rain. As moisture increases from the
southwest a wintry mix is likely across southern NH with snow
across south-central NH into SW Maine. The mix line still looks
to push south through the first half of tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Snow and mixed precipitation expected tonight into Friday
morning.
2. Prolonged period of dreary weather anticipated Friday
evening through Saturday.
3. The warming trend continues through mid week next week.
While mostly dry weather is expected early week, the warm
conditions will lead to a substantial reduction to the snowpack,
especially south of the mountains. Due to the warm environment,
rain appears likely as a system approaches from the west on
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Precip continues to gradually lift towards the forecast area
this afternoon. At the same time a backdoor cold front is
crashing thru eastern Maine/Gulf of Maine. So while temps today
have been able to beat guidance due to all the sunshine across
the middle of the forecast area, those readings will begin
falling quickly thru the late afternoon. Once precip moves in it
will be fighting a rather mild antecedent air mass. For this
reason I anticipate that precip starts as sleet or freezing rain
across southern NH while temps remain warm in the mid levels.
However model guidance is forecasting a fairly robust band of
frontogenesis due to warm advection sliding across Mass
overnight. The increasing lift and latent cooling due to melting
precip will both act to cool those mid level temps. Within a
few hours I am forecasting mixed precip to flip to snow. I am
maintaining a slight chance of sleet or freezing rain, but I
expect the predominant ptype to be snow into Fri morning. As a
result snowfall totals have ticked up again for southern NH.
Generally looking at 3 to 5 inches from the Monadnocks to the
Seacoast, with the best chance for mid level warmth to hang on
and mixed precip to linger across southwestern NH. I do not see
a reason to expand the Winter Weather Advisory at this time,
mainly given the limited extent of mixed precip and the fact
that most of the snow will end prior to the morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Once precip moves out Fri the forecast area will remain under
southwest flow aloft. I still anticipate that cold air damming
will hang tough across most of the forecast area. There is
plenty of snow on the ground, so any warmth trying to push in
will give way to latent cooling due to melting helping to
reinforce the dam. So this is a recipe for plenty of low cloud
cover and likely some fog developing. By Fri evening the
boundary layer moisture will be increasing along with the
lingering weak ascent due to warm advection. So I am
anticipating drizzle developing overnight. There will likely be
portions of the forecast area that remain below freezing, so
freezing drizzle is a concern. Once confidence is sub-freezing
area goes up, it is possible that winter weather advisories may
be needed, though thankfully this will not be occurring on a
weekday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure and a highly amplified ridge pushes into the
region behind an exiting cold front Sunday. Cooling from the
front itself is muted, and will mainly serve as a pause. Warming
regains momentum through midweek as daytime highs look to push
well above normal.
850mb temperatures begin to push into the 90th percentile climo
early this week, and by the time Wednesday arrives, values
closer to the 99th percentile are possible. How this exactly
impacts surface temperatures will depend on cloud cover and
surface features that sometimes evade representation in longer
range guidance.
The going forecast does support temperatures rising into the
50s daily Mon - Wed. Southern portions of the forecast area
could even see some lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday when those
99th percentile 850mb temps near. Overnight lows cool into the
30s, and this will keep the warm up from being a full on torch
for snowpack. That said, gradual melt is expected through this
warm period and it will likely do a number to existing snow.
Stream rises are possible, and ice movement on rivers and
streams is anticipated south of the mountains. However, given
the low streamflow conditions (historically low in some areas,
including Oxford, ME and Windham, ME), there should be more
leeway than average before minor flooding conditions are met.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lowering CIGS have brought MVFR conditions from KCON to KRKD
and points to the south to start the 00Z TAF period. The
combination of moist, onshore flow and approaching precip will
mean a sharp deterioration to IFR or lower conditions along and
south of a LEB to PWM line late this evening and overnight.
Eventually low CIGs are anticipated as far north as AUG, but
that likely will hold off until Fri morning. Initial ptype is
forecast to be freezing rain or sleet at MHT and PSM, but within
a few hours should transition to snow. Wintry precip moves out
of the area Fri morning, but low CIGs linger thru the day.
Outlook:
Friday Night: Areas of IFR in low CIGs and potential
drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Saturday: Areas of IFR in low CIGs and potential
drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Saturday Night: Reduced cig/vis favors the ME/NH coast with
some improvement for interior NH and far western ME. Drizzle and
some SHRA continues. LLWS possible into Sun AM.
Sunday: Widespread improvement to VFR as a cold front pushes
east. Vis may still be limited just offshore from coastal
terminals.
Sunday Night: Warm temperatures over melting snowpack may
produce ground fog that results in lowered visibility. Cigs
should be unlimited unless ground fog thickens.
Monday and Monday Night: VFR expected with no sig wx.
&&
.MARINE...
Backdoor cold front is driving thru the Gulf of Maine at this
time. Northeast winds are gusting to near gale force behind the
front. SCA remains in effect for the outer waters into Fri. Seas
will continue to build thru Sat morning, and become more
chaotic as winds shift from northeast to south at that time. An
extension of the SCA for seas will likely be needed at some
point Fri.
Winds become west Sunday behind exiting cold front. SCA
threshold winds may spread over the waters Monday into Tuesday,
but there may be a surface inversion that limits how many of
these gusts reach the sea surface.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NHZ011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
