NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
094
FXUS61 KGYX 031111
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
611 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The small craft advisory has been cancelled as observations show
significant wave heights have fallen below 5ft.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Astronomical tides will remain high Tuesday but diminishing storm
surge is expected to keep water levels below flood stage.
2. A couple of weak disturbances will lead to reinforcing shots of
slightly colder air and low chances for snow showers Wednesday
through Thursday night.
3. A potent short wave crosses Friday night through Saturday
bringing chances for snow followed by Arctic air arriving on
gusty NW winds into Sunday. Cold Weather Headlines will likely
be needed centered around Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Wave heights will continue to diminish near shore through the early
morning hours, which will eventually lead to negligible storm surge
by astronomical high tide on Tuesday. That being said, offshore
winds will also continue to relax which may lead to some water
sloshing back towards the shore. Water levels should remain below
flood stage but some splash over will be possible. Some
consideration was given to a Coastal Flood Statement, but the water
level forecast has trended a touch lower in the latest guidance.
The other story will be the continued cold this morning. Little to
no wind, plenty of clear skies, and abundant snowpack should lead to
widespread radiational cooling as in previous nights. For lows, I
generally decided to blend in the latest MOS MAV guidance to the
previous forecast (which was already colder than straight NBM). We
should once again see widespread lows below zero with double digit
values possible over some of the northern valleys. Weak ridging and
high pressure at the surface will then lead to plenty of sunshine
today and likely the warmest day of the week. Highs will range from
the upper teens to mid 20s north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s
south.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A couple of quick moving waves will move through the region
Wednesday through Thursday night, leading to some low chances of
light snow. While moisture will be limited, there should be enough
lift for some scattered snow showers, especially in the mountains
and vicinity. As mentioned in the previous discussion, soundings
also continue to show some more modest lift and moisture around the
Mid Coast where a few more snow showers are possible.
Thursday`s wave looks even more moisture starved so snow showers may
be a bit more isolated and mainly confined to the mountains. While
there won`t be any major shots of cold behind these two waves, they
will lead to gradually cooler conditions through the end of the work
week. Wednesday`s highs will generally range from mid teens to lower
20s north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. By Friday, highs
will mainly be in the upper teens to the upper 20s. These highs will
generally be around or slightly below normal for this time of year
but forecast lows should remain well below normal, especially Friday
morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Another Arctic intrusion of very cold air is expected to arrive on
Saturday as a s/wv trof arrives from Hudson Bay, bringing a period
of light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. This may result in
slippery travel conditions Saturday morning. This trof is progged to
become negatively tilted as it crosses the region on Saturday as an
area of cyclogenesis develops well offshore before deepening towards
Nova Scotia into Saturday night. This will result in a strong
pressure gradient as high pressure will be building to our northwest
and therefore blustery conditions are likely with sub zero windchill
values. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed for this time
period. Cold conditions will persist Sunday into Monday before a
warming trend begins on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday... Widespread VFR conditions are expected
through this evening. As a weak area of high pressure builds in
winds will also be light, generally from out of the west or
northwest. Ceilings thicken tonight and lower to near MVFR
heights, with some light snow showers possible in the vicinity
of HIE toward day break Wednesday.
Outlook:
Wednesday Night/Thursday: VFR conditions with NW winds 5-10 kts.
Thursday Night/Friday: VFR conditions with light and variable
winds.
Friday Night/Saturday: -SN possible along with some flight
restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas should eventually fall below 5 feet this morning. SCAs will
remain in effect outside of the bays until 12z, otherwise winds and
seas will remain below SCA thresholds into Wednesday. Some light
freezing spray will continue to be possible this morning despite
diminishing winds and seas.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA thresholds through the
remainder of the week before possible gale force winds and
elevated seas arrive on Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Hargrove/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
