NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
376
FXUS61 KGYX 251723
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1223 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures turn bitterly cold behind a front tonight with
wind chills below zero across the area. The next storm looks to
mostly miss our area to the south, but some light snow is
possible over southern New Hampshire Saturday. Then a more
robust winter storms sets its sights on New England Sunday night
into Monday. While this storm does appear to transition to rain
at some point on Monday, initial mixed precipitation and snow
may bring significant travel disruptions given the expected high
volume of holiday travelers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of noon today, a weak frontal boundary has moved southward.
This front brought some light snow to the region this morning.
Behind the front, we should expect to see winds pick up from the
north, becoming breezy to gusty at times this evening. This
will allow for tonight to feel particularly cold, despite most
places only in the teens this evening. For instance at 7PM
tonight, we have Lewiston forecast in the upper teens. With the
wind, Lewiston will have a wind chill near 0F. Winds peak this
evening, with winds starting to calm down as temperatures
continue to drop. Despite this, wind chills are still likely to
bottom out near -10F for most by Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Persistant troughing from a high to the northeast will continue to
bring chilly temperatures and mostly dry conditions to the area
tomorrow. Light northerly winds through the day will allow for cold
air advection, and temperatures will have a harder time warming up.
Highs look to be in the teens to lower 20s along the coast, with
lower teens in the mountains.
A low will miss New Hampshire to the southwest tomorrow night. This
low will bring snow to southwest New Hampshire Friday night. A a few
inches can not be ruled out in Cheshire county. Snow should keep
southern NH warmer Friday night, with lows in the teens expected as
falling snow may help with mixing. Elsewhere, tomorrow night will be
very cold, with low temperatures in the single digits along the
coast, below zero north of the mountains. Calm winds, fresh snowfall
should help bring lows colder but mostly cloudy skies are still
expected across most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Overview: The long term starts with an upper level
ridge building into the area which will allow for warmer
temperatures aloft which may cause some precipitation type
problems as surface low pressure moves through early next week.
Afterward, we end up under a broad trough for the remainder of
the period which keeps snow showers in the forecast, especially
in the mountains.
Impacts and Key Messages:
* A mixed precipitation event may impact post-holiday travel
Sunday night and Monday.
Details: Saturday: Any snow that reaches our area tapers off
Saturday morning as the low continues out to sea and high pressure
quickly builds in behind it. Clearing skies allow high temperatures
to rise into the mid- to upper 20s south of the mountains, and into
the upper teens and low 20s north. Skies remain clear and winds
remain light as high pressure slides overhead Saturday night. This
likely allows for a very cold night with temperatures falling into
the single digits south of the mountains, and just below zero
to the north.
Sunday and Monday: A ridge begins to build in aloft on Sunday,
and at the same time surface low pressure approaches from the
west. This means we start the day clear, but start to see clouds
move in beginning in the afternoon. Temperatures should be able
to rise into the low to mid 30s south of the mountains before
it gets to cloudy, with mid- to upper 20s to the north. As of
now it looks like precipitation is going to hold off until late
Sunday night/early Monday morning, but with the ridge becoming
centered overhead it could be a mixed bag. The southwesterly
flow aloft warms temperatures above freezing, while low pressure
sucks in colder air at the surface, but the key is going to be
how deep that near surface cold air actually gets. The high
pressure to the northeast appears to get pushed out quite
quickly among model solutions, so this isn`t the strongest
signal I have ever seen for an icy event. With that being said,
there is time for that to change and a wintry mix is certainly
in the cards, so have tailored the weather grids to message
that, but also made sure they avoided straight freezing rain as
the uncertainty in the synoptic setup remains high. Mixed
precipitation lasts through Monday morning, but by the afternoon
low pressure moves overhead and the ridge slides offshore which
means we should be able to transition to just rain (south of
the mountains) and snow (north). Precipitation tapers off Monday
night.
Tuesday-New Year`s Day: Global models are in reasonably good
agreement that we end up in a broad troughing pattern to end the
long term period, which means some locations may be ringing in
the new year with a few showers. Otherwise, there is no strong
signal at this point for anything overly impactful during the
New Year`s holiday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR restrictions are possible in the mountains
this afternoon with upslope snow showers. VFR expected
elsewhere. VFR expands into the mountains by tonight, with VFR
continuing everywhere through most of the day Friday.
Restrictions are likely at KEEN and KLEB Friday night as snow
moves into the area. These restrictions may potentially reach
out to KMHT and KCON as well for a brief period. VFR remains in
the north and across Maine locations through Saturday morning.
Long Term...Conditions improve back to VFR Saturday morning for
areas that will see snow overnight. VFR then prevails through
the day Sunday before ceilings begin to lower Sunday evening.
Widespread IFR is possible late Sunday night/early Monday
morning as mixed precipitation moves into the region.
Visibilities should improve some south of the mountains as the
wintry mix transitions to plain rain. North of the mountains
transitions to snow so HIE likely continues to see restrictions.
Conditions improve back to VFR areawide Tuesday as
precipitation tapers off.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale force northerly winds are expected this
evening, continuing through Friday morning. Seas of 4-7ft are
expected and freezing spray is likely across the in the open
waters east of Casco bay, including Casco and Penobscot Bay.
Northerly winds persist but weaken considerably by Friday
afternoon, as high pressure moves overhead. Seas also gradually
lower through the day Friday, becoming 2-4ft by Saturday
morning.
Long Term...Conditions below SCA criteria are expected through
the weekend. A system passes through Sunday night and Monday,
and behind it winds ramp up with gusts potentially to gale
force. This also builds seas 4-7ft. The stronger gusts taper off
heading into mid- week, but SCA conditions continue through at
least Thursday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for
ANZ150>154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for ANZ150>153.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
