NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
828
FXUS61 KGYX 040649
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
149 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Ongoing wintry precipitation will come to an end before
daybreak this morning. Thursday`s temps have trended colder for
much of Maine as a backdoor cold front sweeps through.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure exits east early this morning with wintry
precipitation ending before daybreak. Temperatures warm quickly
this morning with highs in the 40s to 50s today.
2. A backdoor cold front brings cool air back to the region on
Thursday, setting the stage for the next system Thursday night
and Friday.
3. A battle between warm and cool airmasses continues through
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure east of Cape Cod will track ENE through the Gulf of
Maine early this morning. Latest radar composite shows
widespread light to moderate snow across much of the area with a
wintry mix across the southern tier of Counties in New
Hampshire. As the low pulls away winds will develop a northerly
component that will help push the wintry mix line back to the
south over the coming hours. Little to no additional snow
accumulation is expected here across southern New Hampshire as
precipitation will be coming to an end. Elsewhere where snow is
ongoing additional light snow accumulation is expected before
precipitation comes to an end by 3 AM.
Zonal flow will usher in drier air aloft this morning with skies
turning mostly sunny. Temperatures will warm quickly this
morning under sunny skies with highs pushing into the upper 40s
to low 50s south of the mountains. Northern Valleys will warm
into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As has been discussed for the last few days, high res guidance
has taken on a cooler consensus for Thursday than most global
guidance was showing earlier in the week. A backdoor cold front
looks to move through Maine and eastern New Hampshire during the
day on Thursday, and through the rest of New Hampshire Thursday
night. This drops temps back into the 30s and then the 20s. Low
clouds and some sprinkles are also likely to accompany the
passage of the front.
This cooler air mass sets the stage for the next system that
slides eastward into the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday. This looks to be another messy one, with a wintry mix
across southern and central New Hampshire, and snow more likely
toward the north and east. A northern edge likely cuts through
the forecast area again with this system.
Precip type zones, and a northern cutoff will be the main
forecast challenges going into this system. Steady precip likely
then winds down during the morning on Friday, but an extended
period drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible from midday
Friday through early Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A repeat of the forecast progression for late this week is
increasingly likely to play out again this weekend. High res
guidance and the NBM shows highs cruising into the 50s for much
of the area, while the pattern suggests that a cold air dam and
easterly flow will thwart this taste of spring. It will be very
hard for most areas outside of the Connecticut Valley to warm up
without any mechanical mixing, which most likely comes in the
form of a passing cold front Saturday night. This opens the door
for Sunday to see warmer temps with highs in the upper 40s and
low 50s, but Saturday looks to be more in question.
A more substantial warm up is possible early next week as a
ridge builds across the eastern US. We are right to be
suspicious of this with all the sources of cool air nearby, but
this set up does look more favorable for a bonafide warm up into
northern New England than the one over the next few days does.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday: Snow north of a line from MHT to PSM will
taper off between 06Z and 09Z with improving conditions by 12Z.
A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain at MHT and PSM will also
come to an end between 06Z and 09Z with improving conditions
thereafter. Mainly VFR from 12Z today until 12Z Thursday.
Outlook:
Thursday: MVFR conditions possible across Maine in northeast
flow. VFR more likely across NH.
Thursday Night: Areas of IFR possible with snow and mixed
precip.
Friday through Saturday: MVFR to IFR ceilings, with drizzle and
freezing drizzle increasingly likely.
Saturday Night: Conditions likely improving to MVFR or VFR
late.
Sunday - Monday: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will diminish through early this morning and will
remain below SCA thresholds into Thursday morning. SCA
conditions are possible in northeast flow behind a backdoor cold
front on Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions are then
possible in southwesterly flow on Saturday. A cold front then
crosses Saturday night. Southwest flow likely resumes Sunday
night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
MEZ018>020-023>025.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
NHZ003>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
