NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
818
FXUS61 KGYX 180604
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
104 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall amounts have increased for Sunday into Sunday night as
an area of low pressure tracks southeast of the Gulf of Maine.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for southern New
Hampshire and coastal Maine.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Slick travel is likely south of the mountains Sunday into Sunday
night as snow breaks out around mid morning and continues on and off
through the night. Snowfall amounts remain sensitive to the track of
an offshore system with a slight northwestward shift in the system
resulting in higher snow amounts.
2. Below normal temperatures are likely from Tuesday onward of next
week as a series of Arctic air masses descend upon the Northeast.
Several nights of sub-zero ambient or wind chill temperatures are
possible.&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 Discussion...
Multiple pieces of vorticity rotating through a long wave
trough sliding east Sunday continues to lead to tricky snowfall
forecast through Sunday night. Confidence is high that an area
of low pressure will develop offshore of the Carolinas Sunday
and track northeastward outside the 40N/70W benchmark Sunday
evening. Models seem to be converging on the northward extent of
the precipitation shield pressing as far north as the
mountains. Prior to the arrival of this precipitation shield,
modest forcing of ascent acting upon a stalled boundary will
bring increasing chances for snow by mid morning into early
afternoon with accumulations generally less than 1 inch during
this period. There may be a lull in precipitation early
afternoon with the northern extent of snow from the offshore
system pressing into the area from mid afternoon through Sunday
evening.
Latest NWP guidance keeps the heaviest snow just offshore where
there is strong lift and decent moisture through the dendritic
growth zone. Thus, there is some concern that a slight northwest
shift in the track will bring higher than forecast snowfall amounts
near the coast. Nevertheless light snow is expected across the
interior from late Sunday afternoon through midnight Sunday night
and periods of moderate snow across southeast NH and far SW Maine. I
have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for southern NH and
coastal Maine where snow will likely persist the longest with
amounts around 4-6 inches. Snowfall amounts will diminish to
the north and west of the Advisory with little to no snow
accumulation north of the mountains. Winds will generally be
light during the snowfall. Temperatures may creep up around the
freezing mark near the coast and southern NH during the
afternoon and then will fall into the 20s Sunday evening that
may allow for refreezing of wet surfaces. Snow will taper off NW
to SE Monday morning.
The final piece of vorticity will approach from the west Monday.
This set up with the offshore low is favorable for an inverted
trough to develop that may result in snowfall continuing through
Monday morning while confidence in where/if this inverted trough
develops is low.
KEY MESSAGE 2 Discussion...
Long wave trofing will move across the region on Tuesday with H8
temperatures around -20C. This will result in below avg highs with
temperatures into the teens and 20s from north to south.
Low temperatures will be into the single digits either side of zero.
Wednesday will feature similar temperatures with a chance for some
light snow late day or at night as a weak wave of energy arrives
from the west. Flow will briefly switch to the SSW on Thursday,
allowing for a warmer day with highs into the 30s south of the mtns.
This will be short lived though as colder air looks to return Thu
night through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Cigs will lift and scatter through the
rest of tonight. Mainly VFR then prevails through Sunday
morning.
Cigs then thicken and lower late Sunday morning, with
restrictions likely working into coastal/southern NH terminals
in the afternoon and snow develops. Snow and low cigs through
Sunday evening likely bring at least IFR.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: IFR for most terminals in snow. More northern
terminals like LEB and HIE may remain MVFR is precipitation
stays south.
Monday: Precipitation comes to an end and cgs lift to VFR. HIE
may remain MVFR in upslope clouds and -SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR conditions for most terminals but upslope flow may
result in some MVFR CIGS at KHIE. W wind gusts up to 25 kts
possible.
Wednesday: Chance for some -SN and lower ceilings but forecast
confidence is low.
Thursday: VFR conditions likely for most terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to subside through day break while seas
remain elevated around 5 feet offshore of the Mid Coast through
Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of Cape Cod late Sunday
bringing a wind shift out of the northeast and then north Monday
morning. These winds may approach 25 kts briefly Sunday night.
The next low pressure system passes north of the waters Monday
with increasing SW flow with SCAs likely needed by Monday
afternoon.
SCA to near gale force gusts will likely linger Tue through the
remainder of the week along with elevated seas. Freezing spray
will also be possible as Arctic air moves over the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
Monday for MEZ018>028.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
Monday for NHZ010>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Schroeter/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
