NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
663
FXUS61 KGYX 131935
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some uncertainty remains on cloud cover tonight which will
affect overnight low temperatures given nearly calm winds. Less
clouds would lead to lower temperatures overnight.
Continue to assess two weak systems that could bring light snow
or snow showers to the region Saturday and again Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mild temperatures around or above seasonal averages are
expected through this weekend with even warmer temperatures
likely through midweek next week.
2. A cold front moves through on Sunday, bringing isolated, low
impact chances of snow showers. The long term pattern supports
active weather next week, with the potential for more widespread
precipitation later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Longwave troughing over New England will remain in place through
Saturday. The trend has been to bring more zonal flow across the
northern tier of the CONUS into next week, resulting in the
displacement of cool continental airmass to the north.
Resulting surface temperatures remain within a few degrees of
seasonal normals this weekend with highs from around 30 to the
mid 30s and overnight lows in the teens and single digits above
zero. Large factor for overnight temps this weekend will be
cloud cover through the evening and overnight hours, especially
tonight. Places where skies remain mostly clear overnight could
fall an additional 10 degrees rather quickly in good radiational
cooling conditions.
A more significant warmup remains possible Monday through
Wednesday as low pressure passes through James Bay with
mid/upper level jets to support deeper warm air advection across
the central and eastern CONUS. This could lead to a couple days
of coastal and interior locations reaching values around 40
degrees.
How mid and late week pattern shifts develop will determine if
these values continue into the second half of the week or if
most seasonable temperatures return.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A chance for light snow or snow showers for the mountains
Saturday as a look to next week could bring a few brushes with
precip events.
Locked flow feeding from a continental airmass, moisture will be
limited for disturbances entering New England this weekend. The
best chance for flakes to fall will be in the mountains where
the NW wind direction is favorable to make use of what moisture
does arrive. Further downstream, downsloping will make the drier
low levels hard to overcome. Kept the forecast of slight to
chance PoPs Saturday into Saturday evening as a cold front looks
to move through. A bit of instability may be available for
heavier snow showers along the US/CAN border Sat evening, before
departing overnight.
Guidance has begun to downplay another chance for precip Monday
as drier northern stream looks to be winning out as low pressure
remains well south exiting the Mid-Atlantic.
Gradual trend to zonal flow through mid week will bring a number
of disturbances through the Ohio Valley and towards the
Northeast Tuesday afternoon, Thursday, and later Friday into
Saturday. While guidance has similar looking outcomes, there
remain differences in intensity and slight shifts in track.
While it has been hard to picture other precip types in the
region while its been so cold, there will be the chance for some
rain in one or more of these rounds given expected temperature
trends. That said, being on the north side of these system could
result in cooler temperatures during their passage.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday: VFR. SKC conditions this evening will tend
to fill in late tonight. Ceiling should remain VFR, but HIE
could see lowering with SHSN into Saturday. SN could also bring
IFR vis, tapering Sat evening. W winds increase through the day
with gusts to 15 kts.
Outlook...
Sunday night-Mon Night: Some light snow showers may bring
localized brief MVFR/IFR conditions Sunday night into Monday
with MVFR ceilings common during this time as well. This is more
likely at western TAF sites.
Tuesday: SHSN possible with MVFR/IFR in southern Maine.
Wednesday: A disturbance may bring SN to the region, but there
is uncertainty if it will focus across most terminals in the
region, or just across southern NH.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure noeses towards the region overnight tonight, with
a cold front arriving Saturday evening. This will result in SCA
conditions Saturday night through Sunday morning. Conditions may
remain below SCA through early next week, but disturbances
arriving mid to late week look to bring an uptick in winds and
thus seas that may require additional headlines.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
