NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
169
FXUS61 KGYX 111239
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
839 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
830 AM Update...Temperatures are running warmer than forecast
across the north, and the warm air advection aloft is running
hotter than anticipated. Northeasterly winds through the morning
will shift to southeasterly winds. This should allow for the
gradual erosion of the cold air dam that is currently in place.
This resulted in a considerable change in the forecast, cutting
the freezing rain and sleet back significantly across the north.
In addition, the superiorly warm temperatures experienced
yesterday should help prevent most icing from accreting onto the
roads. As a result, Winter Weather Advisories were dropped
across Oxford, southern Franklin, and southern Somerset
counties. Headlines remain up across northern Franklin and
central Somerset, as upto a tenth of an inch of freezing rain
remains a possibility in these areas. No other changes were
made.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure brings a wintry mix and slick travel from the
foothills of western ME northward today into portions of
tonight. A brief period of wintry mix can`t ruled farther south
toward Augusta and Lewiston and west into northern NH. River
flooding looks to remain relatively minor with QPF not looking
overly robust. Winds westerly winds may gust 20 to 40 MPH in the
wake of the cold front on Thursday.
2. Unsettled and generally cooler conditions continue through
the end of the week and the weekend. A stronger system then
looks increasingly likely early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
830AM Update...Warmer than expected temperatures should lead to
less freezing rain than anticipated. Please see `WHAT HAS
CHANGED` for more details.
Previously...
Little change to the going forecast this early Wednesday
morning with little change in the various guidance sources. Cold
air damming will be the main theme today making it a lot colder
than it was yesterday. This low level cold working in tandem
with warm air aloft will allow for on and off wintry
precipitation to occur in the mountains and foothills today,
with up to a quarter inch of ice possible in the current
advisory area. A few higher elevation locations in and around
Jackman may get a little more. Roads are still cold in the north
some some slippery spots are expected. There may also be some
downed tree limbs in spots but power outages should not be
widespread.
South of the winter weather advisory area, periods of rain
showers are expected with highs in the 30s and 40s. Down near
the MA/NH border temperatures may creep into the 50s.
Flood risk still seems to be low based on the relatively low
amount of QPF expected. However, ice jams remain possible and
some rivers may make it into action stage.
Next, winds will be quite strong in the wake of the cold front
on Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for
westerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH...not quite advisory
criteria but we will continue to monitor.
Lastly, given the shallow nature of the low level cold air
mass, thunder is not out of the question (especially southern
zones) Wednesday afternoon and evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Seasonably cool air returns Thursday night behind the passing
front, with lows dropping back into the teens and 20s for the
first time in several nights for many areas. Seasonable highs
ranging from the mid 30s across the north to mid 40s south of
the mountains are then expected over the following few days.
A weak low pressure system is expected to move eastward Friday
night and Saturday, likely bringing some snow showers across the
north, and the chance for rain and snow showers further south.
Some light snowfall amounts will be possible across the north,
with very little expected toward the coast. This system moves
away during the day on Saturday, and high pressure quickly
progresses through New England on Saturday.
Attention then towards the next potentially more impactful
system on Monday. It looks increasingly like a rain maker as low
pressure looks poised to cut through the Great Lakes. With
recent snow melt, we`ll have to keep an eye on the rivers for
any flooding potential early next week. At this point, there are
no signs toward a cooler solution for this system, but we`ll
continue to monitor it.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through Thursday afternoon...Increasing moisture will cause
conditions to deteriorate this morning with MVFR to IFR
with fog and low stratus.
IFR to LIFR is then likely later this afternoon and night in
precipitation, fog, and low cigs. In addition, low-level wind
shear is likely across the area as a cold front moves through.
This cold front will eventually bring conditions back to VFR
Thursday morning, but westerly wind gusts 25 to 35 kt during the
day.
Outlook:
Thursday night: Mainly VFR expected.
Friday: VFR, but chances for restrictions/precipitation increase
late in the day across northern and western terminals.
Friday night: IFR possible with light snow, especially north and
west.
Saturday - Saturday night: Most sites return to VFR by the afternoon.
Sunday: Possible restrictions later in the day as another system
approaches the region.
Sunday night - Monday: IFR likely with rain and gusty southeast
winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday...SCA conditions return today and tonight.
A period of gales will be possible late tonight into Thursday
in association with a cold frontal passage. Any westerly gales
ease Thursday night.
Southerly gales are then possible ahead of an approaching low
pressure system late Friday into Saturday. High pressure quickly
crosses the waters Saturday night and Sunday. A strong low
pressure system is then increasingly likely Sunday night and
Monday, with southeasterly gales possible.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
MEZ008-009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153-
154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Palmer
DISCUSSION...Clair/Ekster/Palmer/Schroeter
AVIATION...Palmer/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
