NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
176
FXUS61 KGYX 252320
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to the going forecast this evening. Cold front
will approach from the west this evening with snow showers
likely later this evening, especially across southwestern NH. A
few squalls will be possible.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Remaining steady snow ending this afternoon with a cold
front and snow showers set to cross the area through late this
evening.
2. Mainly quiet weather is likely late week through the upcoming
weekend with near to above average temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Snow is hanging on the longest where expected, from roughly
Casco Bay northeastward thru the Midcoast. No real surprises
with generally 1 to 3 inches resulting across the forecast area.
The primary issue moving forward this evening will be tracking
the cold front as it marches thru. Hi-res model forecasts have
enough instability along the leading edge to produce a few bands
of snow showers. Snow squall parameter is decent across most of
NY however will trend down with the loss of daytime heating by
the time any precip reaches our area. Also the timing looks to
be mainly after 9 pm, and so meeting true snow squall criteria
looks unlikely. However a few snow showers may be briefly
moderate to heavy, mainly across the southern half of NH into
southwestern Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A weak surface low looks to develop off the east coast Thursday
night. Strong high pressure overhead will keep this low well
offshore, with no precipitation expected in the area.
A fairly quiet period of weather is forecast for the upcoming
weekend. A mid-level ridge looks to build up at the end of the week,
allowing for a thaw into the weekend. High temperatures are
currently forecasted in the upper 40s on Saturday, with dry weather
anticipated. Saturday afternoon, a low appears to pass over Quebec
with a dry cold front possibly moving southeastward. The passing
front will allow for colder temperatures to work their way back into
the region for the start of next week.
On Sunday, high pressure continues to move in, bringing along
a weak area of upper-level divergence with it. This will allow
for an extremely weak low pressure system to form and move
across NH and Maine, providing the possibility for a quick hit
of snow showers in the morning. Not really expecting more than
a coating, but it could make some back roads in the area slick.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Areas of IFR in light snow are slowly improving to fairly
widespread MVFR CIGs at this hour. Those MVFR CIGs will be
stubborn until westerly winds later this afternoon and evening
can scatter out the lower clouds. Otherwise a return to VFR is
expected for all terminals, except for HIE where upslope clouds
will linger around MVFR CIGs. A cold front will cross the
region from west to east between around 02z to 06z and snow
showers are possible along it. Confidence is too low for me to
include in TAF at this time, but brief reductions in VIS and
local IFR conditions are possible along and south of a LEB-CON-
PWM line.
Outlook:
Thursday: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Friday: VFR conditions expected.
Friday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Saturday: VFR conditions expected.
Saturday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Sunday: VFR conditions expected.
Monday: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds are currently gusting around 25 to 30 kt, mainly
outside of the bays, and seas are building to around 5 ft. SCAs
remain in effect for the outer waters thru Thu, and Penobscot
Bay thru this evening. Winds and seas will begin to diminish
after winds peak this evening.
Winds and seas look to remain below SCA criteria on Friday and
as S winds increase. Borderline SCA conditions start Saturday
morning and continue into the start of next week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster/Legro/Palmer
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
