NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
762
FXUS61 KGYX 152332
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
632 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor adjustments to PoPs in and north of the mountains to
account for latest radar trends. Otherwise, no changes to the
going forecast at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures turn sharply colder across the forecast area
tonight. Increasing winds Friday morning will make for a brisk
commute with wind chill values in the single digits above and
below zero. Cover exposed skin to avoid frostbite amid the much
cooler temperatures.
2. Snow moves through the area Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Rates and accumulations look light, with a
rain/snow mix possible along the coast. Some slick travel is likely
where light accumulations do occur.
3. We continue to closely monitor trends for Sunday night into
Monday as a signal for a coastal storm still exists, but higher
than normal uncertainty remains between model solutions.
Otherwise, below normal temperatures through much of next week
along with an active weather pattern will continue to provide
chances for snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure makes its way into eastern Maine this evening,
deepening as it enters the Canadian Maritimes Friday. Behind the
exiting triple point and associated cold front, temperatures
plunge tonight. Overnight lows may be some 30 degrees cooler by
the time many are heading out the door for the morning commute.
This would equate to teens across much of the interior and
central/southern NH, with single digits across the western Maine
mountains and northern New Hampshire. Values along the coast
won`t be spared either and temps fall towards the lower 20s and
upper teens.
Winds will also be increasing tonight, further decreasing what
temps feel like Friday morning. Aloft, strong 100+ kt upper and
mid jets usher the low off to the north, but a tight pressure
gradient near the surface will quicken background winds and
gusts into Friday morning. Overnight winds remain 5 to 10 mph,
but gusts may rapidly increase upon sunrise, 20 to 30 mph.
Frequency of these gusts will be most notable across SE NH in
proximity to growing low level wind field. Morning wind chills
will have fallen to the single digits above and below zero
through mid morning. Wind chill values may remain below zero for
much of the daytime hours as well as temps struggle to make it
out of the single digits.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A trough begins digging into the central U.S. on Saturday which
supports southwest flow over the Northeast. This pushes
temperatures slightly above normal, climbing into the mid-to
upper 30s in the southern half of the CWA. This will be
important as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region
in the afternoon breaking out precipitation across the area.
These marginal temperatures in the south mean much of the area
may start as rain or at least a rain/snow mix at onset. For the
northern half, temperatures aren`t expected to rise above
freezing, so snow is expected to be dominant there. However,
there is some question how far north precipitation may spread.
Temperatures do fall below freezing heading into the evening, so
just about everyone should see some snowflakes before
precipitation comes to an end Saturday night. This trough is
strongly positively tilted so QPF is going to be lacking, but a
coating of snow across much of the area is certainly in the
cards.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Model trends have not been a snow lovers friend in regards to
the system in the Sunday night-Monday timeframe. Global ensemble
suites continue to have little support for it, keeping the low
well offshore. Still, some accumulating snow for the coastal
plain is possible as we get clipped, but current probabilities
of greater than 3" are only in the 20-30% range. The 12Z GFS is
coming in as I`m writing this and even that has trended toward a
swing and a miss, and closer to what the deterministic Euro has
been advertising. It is something we will continue to monitor
as unusually high uncertainty remains, but it seems as though
models are starting to hone in on a drier solution.
Below normal temperatures return for next week as our weather
pattern remains on the active side. Models suggest that clippers
from the Great Lakes Region continue to traverse the area along with
several upper level waves traversing the broad trough. There isn`t a
signal for anything impactful at the moment, and midweek looks
mostly dry as high pressure noses into the region, but some
chances for snow showers are in the forecast late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upslope clouds and -SHSN will continue to bring at least MVFR at
KHIE through the first half of tonight. Some BR is holding at
KRKD, but is expected to exit by 02Z as winds shift westerly.
MVFR cigs at KLEB are expected to linger through the first half
of tonight. Elsewhere VFR is expected with VFR for all TAF sites
by early Friday morning as W winds increase, with some gusts to
20 kt before dawn. Expect gusts to increase further Friday
morning after sunrise, 20 to 25 kt.
Outlook:
Friday night: VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs as clouds
thicken/lower. Light SN possible late.
Saturday: IFR in light snow showers for most terminals. PSM, PWM,
and RKD may stay MVFR if rain or a rain/snow mix remains the
dominant precipitation type.
Saturday Night: Gradual improvement from IFR to MVFR overnight as
precipitation wraps up and ceilings begin to lift.
Sunday: Ceilings may lift to VFR for a time on Sunday, but would
quickly return to MVFR as another system moves into the region.
Sunday Night: MVFR for most terminals with IFR visibility
restrictions possible in snow.
Monday: Conditions improve to VFR at most terminals. HIE may
experience persistent MVFR.
Monday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals.
Tuesday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Exiting low pressure will bring increasing winds across the
waters this evening and overnight. Gale conditions arrive after
midnight tonight for the outer waters with bays/harbors
increasing to around 30 kt tonight. Winds begin to subside
Friday afternoon as low pres pulls away.
There won`t be much of a reprieve from SCA conditions as
seas stay around 5 ft through the day Sunday. Winds then ramp up
with frequent gusts 25kt+ by Monday afternoon. These elevated wind
gusts then continue through the end of the long term forecast
period.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
