NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
957
FXUS61 KGYX 300206
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
906 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes through this evening, bringing with it
blustery conditions through Tuesday. The remainder of the week
remains cold with a possible arctic front and snow shower activity
New Year`s Eve night. Cold temperatures and mountain snow shower
activity last into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
845 PM Update...Reconfigured the wind advisory area a little bit
based on latest forecast sounding potential for 40 to 50 MPH
gusts. Added southern NH, especially for the higher elevations
such as the Monadnocks. Conversely, cancelled portions of
central ME as the potential for strong gusts appears to be
waning. The best chance for outages are the locations where
there is a good amount of icing that when combined with strong
winds can result in branch breakage.
Previously...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Gusty winds tonight pose an elevated power outage risk in
areas that have seen higher end ice accumulations.
* Travel may be slick again overnight as temperatures crash
well below freezing.
Precipitation is still moving through the area this afternoon
with the southern half of the CWA pretty much transitioned to
plain rain. To the north precipitation is lighter, but falling
on freezing surfaces, so caution is still needed there. Was able
to trim the Winter Weather Advisories another tier inland as
air and road temperatures are slowly creeping above freezing.
Elsewhere, the cold air damming is holding in just like we
thought it would with air temperatures stuck around 32-34F north
of the foothills and right down through the Monadnock region of
New Hampshire. As a result road temperatures are also stuck
around 31-32F and Winter Weather Advisories will stay in place
for those locations. Winter Storm Warnings will also stay in
place as power outage data shows around 20,000 outages within
the warning area at the time of this writing. This will only be
further exacerbated as winds pick up this evening. That being
said, we went ahead and issued a wind advisory to amplify the
messaging that regardless of the fact that wind gusts are
marginal, the additional ice load will make it easier for
outages to occur.
Winds pick up immediately after precipitation tapers off
tonight as cold air roars back into the region behind the front.
BUFKIT soundings and the latest CAMs suggest that gusts in the
25-35 mph range will be able to mix down from the fringes of a
low level jet late Monday Night as the pressure gradient begins
to tighten. These gusts are going to elevate the power outage
threat in those areas that saw the most ice accretion on trees
and power lines. On the other hand, these winds are going to
help to dry out roads some before temperatures come crashing
down. Travel is likely going to be slick in some spots again
overnight as damp untreated roads ice back up.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Gusty winds during the day Tuesday continue to pose a power
outage risk and may also delay power restoration efforts in
some areas.
More frequent gusts in the 35-40 mph range are expected during
the day Tuesday as the pressure gradient continues to tighten
over the area. This may hamper some of the power restoration as
well as pose a risk for additional outages in the hardest hit
areas. Skies are going to remain on the cloudier side as we stay
in the vicinity of the upper low, so temperatures aren`t going
to move all that much from the morning lows. It looks like areas
south of the mountains rise into the upper teens and low 20s.
Up north temperatures mostly remain in the single digits and low
teens. Windchills end up below zero for much of the area during
the day and into the night. Upslope snow showers are likely to
persist in the mountains as we remain in northwest flow with the
trough overhead.
Wind gusts decrease after sunset as the pressure gradient
begins to relax. The upper low departs to the northeast allowing
for skies to clear some. The gradient still looks tight enough
for winds to remains somewhat breezy, so most locations won`t
completely decouple, but the fresh air mass overhead will still
support a very cold night. Temperatures fall into the single
digits and low teens in the southern half of the CWA, and just
on the either side of zero for the northern half.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* Cold air with sub-zero wind chill temperatures expected at
periods through the weekend
* Potential snow shower activity on New Years Eve night
associated with a cold front.
Forecast Details: This period of the forecast can be summarized
as broad cyclonic flow across the Northeast that will lead to a
cold week with no major precipitation makers on the horizon.
Model guidance is very good agreement of below normal 500mb
heights over the region through the weekend. This will support
below normal temperatures to start the new year with rapid ice
growth on area rivers and lakes that haven`t frozen over yet.
One feature of interest is a shortwave trough on New Year Eve`s
night that will have an arctic frontal boundary associated with
it. Snow shower activity will occur Wednesday night into
Thursday morning and will most likely be heaviest in the
mountains and along the Mid-coast. Overall light snow is
expected, but could bring late night travel impacts. Cold wind
chill temps to start the new year with sub-zero temperatures.
Light snow showers to continue in the mountains on and off
Friday into Saturday, but overall dry and cold weather is
expected.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread IFR/LIFR continues into the evening with
gradual improvement expected as precipitation comes to an end.
Conditions improve to VFR overnight tonight and prevail through
Tuesday night. Westerly wind gusts increase to 25-30kts
overnight tonight, lasting through the day Tuesday.
Long Term...No significant aviation weather impacts are
expected on Wednesday, snow shower activity associated with a
cold front could bring tempo IFR conditions Wednesday night but
overall snowfall amounts look light, two exceptions could be
Rockland & Whitefield where light snow is possible through early
Thursday morning. Cold and breezy weather is expected into the
weekend with no snow expected through this period.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds increase to Gale force tonight as a front
sweeps over the waters. Gale force gusts are expected to persist
through Tuesday night. During this same time period seas build
to 5-9ft. Gale force gusts taper off Wednesday morning, but
gusts greater than 25 kts and the elevated seas will remain.
Long Term...Broad cyclonic flow is expected through the
forecast period. This will keep a persistent offshore flow
across the coastal waters. This will lead to a long duration of
SCA conditions from Wednesday into the weekend most likely as
reinforcing shots of cold air and fronts move across the area
keep things windy over the outer coastal waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ007>009-012-013-
018-019-023-024-033.
NH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dumont
NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Dumont
AVIATION...Baron/Dumont
MARINE...Baron/Dumont
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
