NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
377
FXUS61 KGYX 311038
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
638 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast generally looks to be in good shape as we wait for
the rain to make it into New Hampshire. No major changes were
needed for this update. Just freshened up the aviation forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Low pressure spreads moisture into the area today, with rain
showers in most locations. Across the far north, enough cold air
returns to bring a wintry mix.
2. Prolonged period of precipitation chances expected through the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A front stalls across the region for today, with low pressure riding
along the front through the day. Southwestern New Hampshire squeezes
out another warm day south of the front, and then has a chance for
some heavier showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon. North of the
front across most of the rest of the area, an increasing cool and
raw day takes shape, with temps in the 30s and 40s much of the day.
Waves of precip arrive by the morning, with a wintry mix across the
north.
A winter weather advisory remains in effect for parts of northwest
Maine. Here, the best chance for a wintry mix and ice accretion
exists, with rain south of these areas. A break in the steady precip
is expected this afternoon, but freezing drizzle is likely to
continue across the north between rounds of steadier precip.
The next round of precip then moves in tonight, with more wintry
precip across the north, and rain south. More heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible through the overnight hours as
elevated instability moves overhead. The steadiest precip ends
before sunrise tomorrow, but spotty showers and freezing drizzle
across the north likely continues as a cold air dam remains in place.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Once precip begins Tue it will be difficult to find a clear break,
though maybe the best of them will be late Wed. Cold front looks to
have pushed thru the forecast area but will then return north again
as a warm front. Showers will ride along the boundary and drizzle
and dreary conditions will remain possible south. The mid level warm
front is forecast to lift north of the forecast area Thu and much of
Fri, but I am less convinced that the surface front makes much
progress. Ensemble guidance is forecasting a seasonably strong high
pressure centered northeast of the region. That is a recipe for cold
air damming and temps coming in under forecast. The NBM is already
hinting at this, with a sharp boundary across southern portions of
the forecast area. The main shortwave and strongest moisture
convergence arrives Fri into Fri night. The focus of this will be
along the mid level front, which is largely over and north of the
forecast area. However to the south I still think there is a
reasonable chance for fog, low clouds, and maybe drizzle to
continue. Another cold front crosses the region Fri night into Sat.
Once again that boundary stalls and returns north and yet another
cold front crosses late in the weekend. Overall I think daytime
surface temps remain stuck on the normal/cool side versus above
normal temps. Overnight temps likely remain mild for this time of
year and could push the daily temp anomalies into the above normal
range. The best chance for some wintry precip will be across the
higher terrain and northern zones. But the strength of the cold air
dam will determine the southward extent.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will increase in coverage from west to east
through the rest of the morning, with the expectation that all
terminals will see rain. This will still likely bring about IFR
visibilities with IFR ceilings following closer to 18Z this
afternoon as drizzle and fog persist through the afternoon. IFR
conditions continue through tonight, with another period of
rain, low ceilings, and areas of fog.
Outlook:
Wednesday: Conditions will begin to improve as rain comes to an end
during the day.
Wednesday Night: Some improvement to VFR possible from north to
south. MVFR CIGs may linger north of the mtns.
Thursday: IFR conditions possible again as warm front lifts north.
Confidence: low.
Thursday Night: IFR conditions possible with low CIGs and maybe
drizzle. Confidence: low.
Friday: Areas of IFR possible. Confidence: low.
Friday Night: Areas of IFR possible. Confidence: low.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR possible. Confidence: low.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions subside across most of the waters this morning,
with seas lingering around 5ft across the eastern waters today.
Wind gusts and wave heights will build again tonight. Winds
will begin to relax again during the day Wednesday, but wave
heights will remain elevated. As a front stalls across the
waters, winds shift from southwesterly to northeasterly early
this morning, before shifting back tonight, and then shifting to
northeasterly as a front crosses the waters on Wednesday.
A prolonged period of at least marginal SCA conditions is likely
outside of the bays. Northeast winds Wed night turn gradually
southerly by Fri. Sat may see those winds become more southwesterly
before a backdoor front shift the direction back to easterly. Gusts
near 25 kt and seas at or above 5 feet may be possible for the
majority of that period. It will also be an extended window where
areas of fog will be possible.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for MEZ007>009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Thursday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Hargrove/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
