NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
677
FXUS61 KGYX 040525
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time in the long
term (Thursday night onward). Just a few minor adjustments to
details such as temperatures at night with good radiational
cooling potential. Otherwise, some light snow and snow showers
still looks good for Friday night and Saturday prior to the next
arctic cold invasion. Increased winds Saturday afternoon and
night. Wind advisory possible for some areas.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A weak disturbance will lead to some scattered snow showers
today, with cooler air returning behind this system for late
week.
2. Light snow is possible Friday night into Saturday and could
create slippery travel.
3. Becoming bitterly cold and breezy this weekend with Cold
Weather Headlines increasingly likely centered around Saturday
night. Dangerous wind chills of -20F to -30F possible from
Saturday late evening through Sunday morning. Latest forecast
soundings indicate not only the invasion of very cold
temperatures Saturday afternoon and night, but it may be on a
few-hour period of winds bordering on wind advisory.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A closed low is currently approaching the southern
Ontario/Quebec border and will eventually move east across the
forecast area later this morning and afternoon. Lift from this
low/shortwave will lead to some scattered snow showers through
the day. It still looks like most of the showers will be found
in the higher terrain, but several CAMs do suggest some
activity making it out into central Maine. Any accumulations
should be light. A weaker wave will then move through on
Thursday. A few more isolated snow showers will be possible
across the mountains, but coverage is likely to be more sparse
than the Wednesday system.
Regarding temperatures, we could see some more radiational
cooling this morning but it will be a trickier forecast than in
previous days as clouds will be increasing from west to east.
For this package, will continue the trend of colder lows in the
valleys east of the mountains as clouds may not really settle
in here until late but it could be close. Highs today will
generally be around normal for this time of year, ranging form
the mid teens to lower 20s across the mountains and northern
valleys, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. Lows will mainly
be in the single digits above zero tonight and highs on Thursday
will be just a touch cooler, especially across the mountains and
valleys.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
No significant changes to the snow forecast for Friday night and
Saturday. WAA out ahead of the next arctic air mass will aid in
the development of light snow Friday night which will be on and
off through Saturday as upper level low pressure moves
overhead. The system will the moisture-starved, and with coastal
redevelopment occuring well offshore, the chances for anything
more than an inch or two at any given location is low.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The next and probably more important key message is the return
or arctic air Saturday into Monday. With the passage of the
arctic boundary on Saturday, temperatures will likely steadily
fall during the afternoon as winds increase. This will be
especially true in the interior.
Latest forecast soundings indicate there is at least moderate
potential for wind-advisory criteria gusts Saturday afternoon
and night which will of course exacerbate the cold. Bears watch
for sure. Saturday night will be pretty brutal.
Temperatures remain below normal but start to recover Monday, and by
Tuesday guidance favors returning to near or even slightly
above normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR prevails at southern terminals through tomorrow night.
Elsewhere, HIE and possibly LEB, AUG, and RKD could see periods
of MVFR ceilings and some scattered snow showers today. MVFR
ceilings likely then linger at HIE tonight, and possibly at LEB.
Outlook:
Thursday night-Friday: VFR prevails.
Friday night - Saturday night: Light snow and IFR restrictions
possible. Northwest gusts of 25-35kt possible Saturday afternoon
and evening. Possibly up to 40kt at times.
Sunday and beyond: There could be a few snow showers but mainly
VFR is expected, except MVFR possible at HIE. Northwest gusts
of 25-35kt possible 25 kt on Sunday with improving conditions
early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak low pressure system crosses New England today, with a
cold front crossing the waters late in the day. Some marginal
SCA conditions will be possible across the outer waters with
the passage of the front late this afternoon and evening.
SCA conditions possible late Thursday and Thursday night with
improving conditions Friday.
Low pressure slides across New England Friday night and is expected
to strengthen south and east of the coastal waters over the weekend.
North to northwest gales are likely, including the bays, and it`s
possible there will be a period of storm-force gusts. Moderate
freezing spray is likely over the weekend with heavy freezing
spray possible in some locations from late Saturday through
Sunday morning.
Gales might linger into Monday with gradually improving
conditions Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Ekster
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
