NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
125
FXUS61 KGYX 071028
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
628 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
625 AM Update...The only change to the going forecast for today
was to add thunder to portions of eastern NH and central ME
later this afternoon and evening as convective parameters and
CAM lightning forecasts support isold thunder.
Previously...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update, except
to beef up the wording of intensity of snowfall for brief
periods during the afternoon and evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Snow returns today. It may be briefly heavy at times both
during the afternoon and again in the evening.
2. A warming trend with direr weather begins midweek, with
above normal temperatures by the end of the work week. We return
to a more active pattern this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Potent, compact shortwave trof still forecast to affect the
area today. It looks to be quite a dynamic little system with
strong forcing for ascent. The shortwave itself will provide
some of that, but very steep lapse are forecast to be present
from afternoon thru evening. In some model guidance lapse rates
approach 7.5 or 8 C/km in a near saturated environment. If this
is realized, lift may be locally quite strong. The lapse rates
will also serve to keep precip types mainly snow, especially if
it is precipitating hard enough. If precip is really light it is
possible some rain mixes in, but otherwise surface temps will
not matter much. There are also two rounds of precip to watch.
One with the initial shortwave arrival. This is mainly forecast
to impact the southern half of the forecast area. Briefly
moderate to heavy snow may lead to an inch or two accumulation,
but totals may tend to be inconsistent rather than uniform
across that area. The second will be with the secondary cold
front and will tend more towards an organized band of snow
squalls. Model guidance is showing fairly consistent intense
snowfall rates north to south thru the line of snow showers.
Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in just a single hour are
possible, during the later part of the evening commute. Given
how steep lapse rates are forecast to be, I would not be
surprised if there was some lightning as well. It is a tough
call on potential headlines, as the lateness of the season and
potential intensity of snowfall rates at times could lead to a
higher impact, but sub- advisory event. At the same time there
seems to be fair chance that some snow squall warnings may be
needed during the evening hours.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Strong high pressure enters the region Wednesday which ushers
in drier weather, but cooler air remains in place as
northwesterly flow continues. Dewpoints look to drop into the
single digits and teens with temperatures climbing into the 40s.
This equates to minimum relative humidity values in the 20-30%
range, but fortunately with high pressure moving overhead wind
gusts should be light enough to preclude fire weather concerns.
Thursday may be a different story as flow transitions to
southwesterly and high pressure pulls off to the east. This
results in a tightening pressure gradient which could bring wind
gusts up to 20-25 mph. Southwesterly flow brings dewpoints up
slightly, but with a clear well mixed day I expect them to stay
below guidance and with temperatures into the mid to upper 50s
outside of the coastal plain, another day of RH values 20-30% is
not out of the question. This window will have to be watched
closely for fire weather concerns.
Dewpoints come up quite a bit by Friday with continued
southwesterly flow. Temperatures come up quite a bit as well
with most locations seeing 60s right down to the immediate
coast, but the immediate coast likely stays a little bit cooler
thanks to a seabreeze. Friday ends up a very mild night with
long range guidance shifting rain into the Friday night-Saturday
morning window and trending the bulk of Saturday drier. This is
still out in time and models are notorious for having trouble
with the speed of fronts so we will continue to monitor the
trends. There is great agreement however that high pressure
takes control again Sunday. Ensembles are in reasonable
agreement that this is short lived as it exits Sunday night and
we return to a more active pattern heading into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions forecast thru at least sunrise for much of the
area. CIGs begin to lower in the mid morning and are most likely
to drop to MVFR across the southern half of the forecast area.
Where exactly it snows hard enough to reduce VIS to IFR or lower
is a little harder to pin down, but at this time southern NH
into southwestern Maine is most likely. Both during the
afternoon and again in the evening there are short windows where
snow may be heavy at times. MVFR CIGs are expected thru most of
the day Tue before improving.
Outlook...
Wednesday-Friday: VFR prevails for much of the week as we enter
a period of quiet weather. HIE may begin to see MVFR become
more prevalent for Friday.
Friday night: May see some expansion of MVFR ceilings outside
of the mountains as rain approaches the area.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR restrictions possible through the morning as
rain tapers off. The second half of the day should see
improvement to VFR as high pressure moves in.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the
afternoon. Late in the day northeast winds will start to gust
to SCA. High pressure moves over the waters on Wednesday
bringing tranquil conditions to the waters. This should
generally be the case through the day Friday, with the exception
of a brief period of SCA conditions Thursday afternoon and
evening as high pressure pulling away tightens the pressure
gradient over the waters. Friday night through Saturday night
may see SCA waves as a cold front sweeps through. High pressure
returns Sunday which should bring a brief return of sub-SCA
conditions, but a return to an active weather pattern next week
may bring SCA conditions back quickly.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Ekster/Legro
AVIATION...
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
