NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
727
FXUS61 KGYX 180519
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
119 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat for ice jam flooding has decreased with the return of
colder temperatures.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions are expected through Thursday with below average
temperatures.
2. Light precipitation looks to be the story for the second
half of the week through the weekend, with drier weather
following to start next week. No impacts are expected at this
time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Canadian high pressure will crest over New England today, allowing
for partly to mostly sunny skies. Despite the sunshine, h850
temperatures will only be around -15C, which will limit high
temperatures to the 20s and 30s from north to south. While it will
not be as windy as yesterday, west-northwest gusts up to around
25 mph will make it feel even colder.
High pressure will exit to the east tonight, with developing light
southerly flow. Low temperatures will generally be into the teens
and lower 20s but a few interior valleys may get into the single
digits.
Thursday will feature more in the way of cloud cover as a frontal
boundary and accompanied H5 s/wv trof axis approaches from the west.
It should be another dry day though with high temperatures a few
degrees warmer into the 30s to middle 40s from north to south.
Southeasterly wind gusts up to around 25 mph will be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A frontal boundary begins to sag southward into New England
Thursday night. At that point a sharp shortwave trough passes
bringing northwest flow and mainly confining snow showers to the
mountains as dry air remains in place to the south. The frontal
boundary continues to make southward progress on Friday before
stalling Friday night. This will allow any rain shower activity
to expand to the rest of the area during the day with a
shortwave providing additional forcing Friday night.
Temperatures look to drop back below freezing Friday night so
this is the best chance for more widespread light snow showers.
Shower chances on Saturday are a little less certain as ensemble
solutions are beginning to favor the front making enough
progress that forcing ends up south of our area, but until we
see a bit more agreement it is fair to keep a chance of showers
in the forecast. There is even more uncertainty Sunday as model
camps diverge on a low track. The Euro camp has low pressure
taking a more northerly track that gets the front moving again
and pushes it through fairly quickly resulting in the least
amount of QPF. The GFS camp has low pressure riding the frontal
boundary through our area which would result in more QPF as
likely for a longer duration through Sunday night and maybe into
Monday. The Canadian camp falls down the middle, favoring a
northern track but with a closer pass than then Euro. Bottom
line all camps favor some degree of precipitation, but amounts
and timing are a little more questionable at this time range.
Following this ensemble solutions favor high pressure moving in
to start next week. Don`t expect a warm up with it though
because the 500 mb pattern remains mean troughing, so
northwesterly flow is going to keep temperatures right around
normal with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and
20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday: VFR conditions are expected. W-NW winds
will prevail today with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Winds will
become southerly tonight at 5-10 kts and then southeasterly on
Thursday at 15-20 kts. No LLWS is anticipated through the
period.
Outlook...
Thursday night: VFR conditions expected for most terminals but
MVFR CIGS are possible at KHIE due to SHRASN.
Friday through Sunday night: Light rain and/or snow showers
can`t be ruled out which would bring some MVFR conditions, but
VFR would be expected otherwise.
&&
.MARINE...
While westerly wind gusts will fall mainly below 25 kts by
this morning, seas will remain elevated through tonight and
therefore an SCA has been issued through early Thursday morning.
Waves finally begin to settle Thursday night and we may get a
brief period of fair conditions through the day Friday. Friday
night waves build again, with wind gusts following behind on
Saturday as a front approaches the waters. With the front
stalling in the area it looks like SCA conditions could persist
through at least Monday night with conditions beginning to
improve Tuesday as high pressure moves over the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Baron/Ekster