NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
848
FXUS61 KGYX 171254
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
854 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire on time at 9AM this
morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Rain ends early this morning with gusty southerly winds
becoming westerly and falling temperatures through the day.
2. Several chances for precipitation exist Thursday into early
next week as we remain in an active pattern. Ensemble data
doesn`t suggest anything impactful at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rain will end early this morning from west to east as
low pressure crossing near Hudson Bay sends a trailing cold
front across the Northeast. A few damaging wind gusts possible
with front. A few localized river forecast points may approach
minor flood stage due to residual runoff but overall impacts
will be minimal given the ongoing drought conditions. For more
information, please see the hydrology section below.
Winds will become westerly behind this front with gusts up to
30-35 mph. After a warm start to the day, temperatures will
quickly fall into the 30s and they will remain primarily into
the 30s throughout the daytime hours. This will make for
blustery conditions with wind chills primarily into the teens
and 20s.
A secondary cold front combined with the cold pool aloft may
allow for a few scattered snow flurries or snow showers,
especially during the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Cold temperatures will prevail tonight with forecast lows into
the single digits across the north with teens south. Wind chills
will be into the single digits either side of zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The 500 mb pattern through the extended forecast period is mean
troughing over the northeast with a few shortwaves rotating
through into early next week. High pressure crosses the area
Wednesday with temperatures running slightly below normal as
highs only climb into the low to mid-30s south of the mountains,
and into the 20s to the north behind the cold front. Southwest
flow kicks in Wednesday night and while Thursday morning will be
chilly, this will ultimately help temperatures moderate with
much of the area seeing high temperatures back in the 40s. Low
pressure passes just to the north Thursday night with an
accompanying 500 mb shortwave. Ensembles suggest this could
result in some light snow showers with accumulations a coating
to maybe a half inch, with those high totals confined to the
mountains.
A secondary shortwave crosses Friday which may help to sustain
showers for part of the day, but temperatures warm above
freezing early on so light rain would become the dominant
precipitation type outside of the highest peaks. Global models
begin to diverge on exact solutions for the weekend, but
ensembles are in good agreement that shortwaves continue to
rotate though the broader trough and this corresponds with a
double barrel cold front sagging south into our area. Based on
this I think it is fine to roll with the NBMs chance of showers
through the weekend, but precipitation amounts and exactly how
widespread it actually ends up being is going to be something
that gets refined as we get closer in time as it depends on the
currently uncertain low pressure tracks. A deeper trough crosses
Monday, but solutions are even more spread out on surface
features at this point. The NBM is favoring the solutions that
bring high pressure into the region, but some solutions have
significant low pressure centers nearby so this active pattern
will have to continue to be monitored closely.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday: Conditions continue to improve early this
morning with gusty west to southwest winds behind a cold front.
In general, looking at gusts 25-30 kt through much of the day
and into early tonight, but can`t rule out a brief period of
gusts in the the 35-40kt through 14Z or so this morning.
Mainly VFR conditions will then prevail through tonight with a
low chance for a scattered SHSN bringing brief restrictions this
afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday: VFR expected through the day with ceilings trending
toward MVFR during the evening. Thursday night could feature
light snow showers which may bring about locally lower
restrictions.
Friday: Snow showers transition to rain showers with ceilings
generally VFR outside of precipitation.
Friday night through Saturday: Light rain and/or snow showers
can`t be ruled out which would bring some MVFR conditions, but
VFR would be expected otherwise.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale force westerly winds will persist behind a cold front for
most of the day today. Seas outside of the bays between 9-18 ft
can be expected today with gradual declines in wave heights
through tonight. Across the bays, seas will be between 2-5 ft.
Wind gusts fall below 25 knots Wednesday morning, but waves are
going to be slower to settle and even when they do Wednesday
night it may be in the 5 to 6 ft range where they may sit
through at least early next week as an active pattern keeps
things churned up. Similarly, wind gusts greater than 25 knots
return Friday night lasting through at least Monday with some
suggestion in periods of gales as well, but that will depend on
the tracks of low pressure systems during this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch remains in effect for possible localized minor
river flooding due to lingering runoff from rainfall and
mountain snow melt. In addition, while many southern rivers are
ice-free, some ice remains in the mountains and northern
basins. There remains a non-zero risk for mechanical break-up
and unpredictable jams as flows increase.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ007>009-
012>014.
NH...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs/Ekster/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
