NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
894
FXUS61 KGYX 071835
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No real significant changes were needed for this forecast
package. Widespread light to moderate snow continues to fall
early this afternoon with accumulations mainly on grassy
surfaces thus far. We are still monitoring the potential for the
development of a narrow band of locally heavy snow late this
afternoon or this evening over western Maine. A snow squall is
not out of the question.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Pockets of light to moderate snow will continue this afternoon
with chance for a snow squall late this afternoon or the evening,
mainly over western Maine.
2. A warming trend starts Thursday with temperatures climbing
above normal Friday into this weekend. Even warmer temperatures
are possible early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A compact shortwave continues to traverse the base of a mean
longwave trough axis crossing through the region early this
afternoon. A surface low will also move into the Gulf of Maine
this afternoon with CAMs suggesting that a narrow band of
precipitation will develop on the north and west side. RAP
soundings suggest that we could see a little bit of elevated
instability on the order of 100 J/kg or so of MUCAPE, so this
band will feature convective elements and possibly a rumble of
thunder or two. The convective element could also lead to some
brief heavy bursts of snow or even a snow squall or two. Some
rain, sleet, or graupel could mix in at times.
Precipitation will move out mid to late evening with clouds
diminishing overnight. This will make for some chilly lows by
Wednesday morning, ranging from the single digits and lower teens
north, to the upper teens and lower 20s south. Wednesday will then
feature high pressure and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures
will still be a little bit on the cool side but warmer than today
with highs in the mid to upper 30s north, to the mid to upper 40s
south. This pattern should also lead to favorable conditions for
afternoon dewpoints mixing out into the upper single digits or lower
teens. Widespread minimum relative humidity values in the 20 to 30
percent range appear likely with some upper teens even possible over
southern New Hampshire. Thankfully, light winds and recent wetting
precipitation should keep fire weather concerns in check.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Southerly flow increases Thursday into Friday as high pressure
shifts east due to a cold front approaching from the west. This will
usher in a warmer airmass into New England with temperatures
climbing into the 40s and 50s for highs on Thursday and then 50s and
60s on Friday. The lower of these temperatures each day will be
along and just inland from the western ME coast with flow off the
very chilly Gulf of Maine.
As the front approaches late in the day Friday, it will bring
increasing chances for rain showers to the area into Friday night.
These will taper off overnight and probably be over by daybreak
Saturday with ensemble means generally having rainfall amounts in
the 0.10" to 0.25" range.
High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend, bringing
dry conditions other than a chance of upslope rain and snow showers
in the mountains on Saturday. Temperatures come down slightly on
Saturday, but most will still see 50s for highs, except 40s in the
mountains. By Sunday the high slides to the south and east, bringing
in a low-level southerly flow, possibly bringing temps back closer
to 60 degrees across southern NH and parts of the Maine interior.
Coastal Maine may end up being cooler on Sunday than on Saturday.
Going into early next week, global models are in good agreement in
low pressure moving across the Great Lakes and a frontal boundary
gradually approaching from the north and west. There is signal for
the boundary to potentially stall out somewhere in the vicinity, but
where is the key. If the front stays farther to the north and west,
the deepening southwest flow could bring very warm temperatures well
into the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday. Conversely, if the front
sags into the area it will be cloudier, cooler, and more
showery. As it stands right now, northern areas have the higher
shower chances. Not surprisingly, the spread in the ensemble
temperature guidance is quite large, but the NBM 25th percentile
does shift more confidence toward the warmer temperatures as it
still has highs reaching the 60s Monday and possibly even
warmer Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread IFR to MVFR conditions continue in light to moderate
snow and low ceilings. Brief LIFR conditions will be possible at
times under any heavier pockets of snow. Precipitation will
gradually diminish from west to east late this afternoon and
into the evening and ceilings will also scatter out for most
sites by the overnight hours. VFR will then prevail the rest of
the night and through the day on Wednesday.
Outlook:
Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Southerly winds may gust 20-25 kt.
Thursday night: Mainly VFR. Some potential for IFR stratus or fog at
RKD-AUG-PWM.
Friday: IFR stratus and fog are again possible early in the morning
or in the evening at the western ME terminals. There will also be
increasing chances for rain showers in the afternoon, especially at
LEB and HIE.
Friday night: Increasing chances for MVFR to IFR restrictions as a
cold front brings rain showers. Also can`t rule out IFR to LIFR
fog/low stratus for the coastal terminals and AUG.
Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible at HIE on
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA thresholds thru the
afternoon. By this evening, northeast winds will start to gust
to SCA criteria. High pressure then moves over the waters on
Wednesday bringing tranquil conditions to the waters.
Thursday-Tuesday...High pressure shifts east Thursday as low
pressure passes well to the north of the waters. This will send
a cold front through the waters Friday into Friday night with
the possibility of a another low developing along the front.
Southerly gusts may reach SCA levels Thursday into Thursday
night and possibly again late Friday into Friday night behind
the cold front. High pressure brings improvement over the
weekend, and then SCA conditions are possible from late Sunday
into early next week as south to southwest winds increase with
the high shifting to the south and east and a frontal boundary
gradually approaching from the north and west.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Combs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
