NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
978
FXUS61 KGYX 152355
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
655 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor update to reflect observed trends in temperatures and to
update the Aviation discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Active weather continues with light snow showers tonight,
mainly in New Hampshire, and a more widespread, but low impact
snowfall Monday night into the Tuesday morning commute.
Accumulations are expected to be less than an inch, but enough
to make for a period of slippery travel. This is followed by
temperatures climbing above normal through midweek.
2. There are two distinct systems mid and late week to watch for
the next round of widespread precipitation. The first could
bring accumulating snow to at least the southern half of the
forecast area, with uncertainty on northern extent.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Vertically stacked low pressure continues northeastward into
Atlantic Canada tonight with a trailing shortwave progged to
move through our area after midnight. This will generate some
snow showers, but they will be running into the high pressure
that has built overhead today. The latest CAMs suggest this
dries them out pretty quickly, but I think most locations in New
Hampshire have a good shot at seeing some flakes with locations
in Maine less likely. These will result in little to no
accumulation, so even though you may see some light flakes if
your on the road overnight or Monday morning, I would not
anticipate travel impacts.
Snow showers look more widespread Monday night as low pressure
moving through Quebec drags a frontal boundary through the
northeast. Similarly, snow doesn`t begin until late in the
evening and with Monday being the start of our warm up
(temperatures climbing into the mid- to upper 30s) it may not
stick right away in most places. As a result accumulations are
expected to be less than an inch, and much less in most places.
13Z NBM probabilities of measurable snow are less than 20% and
are likely being skewed by the 12Z CAMs being drier and more
showery in nature. I would like to continue messaging a coating
to an inch, but with the understanding that many locations
outside of the mountains are going to fall on the low end of the
range. North of the mountains I do feel that a half inch to one
inch is possible with the added upslope enhancement. The
general idea is that a period of slippery travel is possible for
the Tuesday morning commute, but with snow coming to an end
shortly after and temperatures climbing into the upper 30s and
low 40s impacts should be minimal.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Prominent upper and mid level jet spans across the CONUS mid
week which will hasten transport of disturbances eastward. The
first disturbance is and will continue to have a higher degree
of uncertainty for northern New England due to its origin and
how its manipulated eastward.
Parent low will be in an eddy across the Northern Plains
Tuesday night with the main jet to the south. This pocket of
relatively slower flow will tend to shear the system into two
as the jet is quick to accelerate the southern half. This piece
has been modeled to track across the Great Lakes and towards New
England Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Intensification of this part is likely as it quickly traverses
east. It will have decent jet dynamics to take advantage of
synoptic lift, resulting in a sizable swath of precipitation.
Moderate IVT across the TN Valley should also aid in the
magnitude of precip, with 24 hr NBM mean of around 0.75" into
the Northeast. With the storm being progressive, locations will
need to maximize duration under the band of precip to see bulk
of accumulation, and positioning of this remains uncertain.
As this system is pushing east, northern New England will still
be in cool and dry NW flow. This can quickly whittle away
weakening moisture transport into the region, limited the
northward extent of the precip shield. GFS trends over the past
24 hours have shown this in combination with a further south
trajectory keeping the CWA mostly dry in the Wed/Wed night
period. ECMWF and Canadian guidance has held on to a more
northerly track with QPF values around 0.10" to 0.40". In
cluster analysis, snowier solutions CWA-wide result from greater
ridging across southern Canada that displaces and weakens
prevailing NW flow into NNE. There is a minority of cluster
weighting that suggests stronger troughing to supply dry air to
the region. This proves a wide spread of over half an inch
liquid equivalent for most of the southern CWA per the NBM.
The going forecast calls for whats most probable at the time: a
greater portion of precip overspreading the southern forecast
area Wednesday afternoon vs. the north. Temps through the column
should be cool enough for snow, but sfc temps may be well in
the mid to upper 30s for portions of the area. This could lead
to a round of rain/snow mix before shifting to snow overnight.
Late week, additional low pressure pushes into the Ohio Valley
and towards the Northeast. How this low interacts with another
rapidly moving off the Mid-Atlantic will determine longevity of
the next round of widespread precip as well as intensity. For
now there are a lot of possible outcomes resulting in low
confidence, but consensus is wintry precip could bring slick
travel to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR prevails through 00Z Tuesday, but
ceilings will trend to BKN/OVC overnight and lower to around
FL050 by day break Monday. There is a low chance of light snow
showers at New Hampshire terminals overnight. Only included VCSH
at LEB and HIE at this time. Ceilings scatter Monday afternoon
Outlook...
Monday night: Cloud trend back to BKN/OVC Monday night with
ceilings lowering to MVFR at most terminals. Light snow showers
overnight may briefly bring about localized IFR conditions, with
the greatest chance of this at LEB and HIE.
Tuesday-Tuesday night: Ceilings trend back to VFR for Tuesday,
except that HIE may stay MVFR.
Wednesday and Wed Night: MVFR/IFR possible into the latter part
of Wed as SN moves in from the west. There remains uncertainty
how far north SN makes it in the forecast area, with IFR vis
initially possible across southern NH terminals.
Thursday and Thurs night: SN decreases in coverage with
potential trend to VFR into Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions return this afternoon, with tranquil
conditions lasting through the day Tuesday as high pressure
moves over the waters. Strong low pressure passing east of the
Gulf of Maine will build a swell into out waters Tuesday night
with wave heights 3-5ft. Northerly winds today will shift
easterly for Monday as a disturbance crosses the waters tonight.
Winds then shift to southeasterly for Tuesday as low pressure
passes out to sea, and finally to westerly by daybreak
Wednesday.
A period of winds around 30 kts are possible Wed into Thurs as
low pressure passes over or near southern New England. NE or
onshore flow as the low approaches would result in building wave
heights, particularly for the southern coastal waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
