NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
487
FXUS61 KGYX 100636
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
136 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There has been a slight increase in snowfall amounts late
today through Wednesday and Central Somerset County has been
added to the Winter Weather Advisory.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A period of moderate to heavy snow overspreads the area west
to east late this Afternoon through this evening. Accumulating
snow will bring slick travel for the portions of the evening
commute, particularly across New Hampshire. Snow tapers off
south of the mountains early Wednesday morning while chances for
accumulating snow continues in the mountains and across central
Maine.
2. Expect average to slightly above average high temperatures
through the work week and into the weekend. Lows should be average
to slightly below average most mornings.
3. We continue to monitor the potential for a larger storm late in
the weekend or early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure tracks southeast across Ontario today with the
attendant warm front spreading snow into New Hampshire late this
afternoon and into Maine this evening. CAMs are in decent agreement
that there will be a 3 to 6 hour where WAA will provide strong lift
through a moist DGZ through the first half of tonight. The latest
HREF shows moderate to high probabilities that snowfall rates will
will approach 1 inch per hour during this window. Available incoming
00Z guidance remains in decent agreement that after this initial
push of WAA snowfall a dry slot will punch in from the southwest
resulting in snow tapering off across portions of NH south of the
Whites after midnight and tapering off across far SW Maine by day
break. Snowfall amounts from this first push will around 2-4 inches
across southern NH where the dry slot causes snow to end first. Will
continue to hold the Winter Weather Advisory here for impacts as
snowfall rates could approach 1 inch per hour around the evening
commute. Elsewhere snowfall from this first push will range from 3-6
inches by around 7 AM.
Low pressure that approaches from southeast Canada will transfer to
an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning.
During this period much of the area will likely see a break in
accumulating snowfall. The exception will be the mountains as an
upper low slides overhead allowing for intermittent snow. The other
possible exception will be near the Mid Coast as most models
indicate another inverted trough will develop to the northwest of
the low in the Gulf of Maine. However, some model solutions keep
accumulating snowfall east of the area or offshore while others
swing the trough westward through western Maine Wednesday afternoon.
It will also become quite mild compared to recent weeks with
temperatures rising into the mid 30s south of the mountains which
will help minimize impacts from additional snowfall with the
inverted trough. The going forecast is largely based on the NBM,
although I have tapered down QPF due to some wet bias with the
heavily weighted hi res models and tapered down snow ratios as
the DGZ is quite high around 15000 feet. The NBM does bring
storm total snow amounts around 6-7 inches across portions of
central Maine to the Mid Coast, but have elected keep the going
Winter Weather Advisory in place as the break in snowfall
Wednesday morning and marginal temperatures will help minimize
impacts. That said, will have to monitor trends with the
development of the inverted trough as there could be better
consensus for the potential to upgrade zones across central
Maine and Mid Coast to a Warning. Any lingering snow showers
will come to an end Wednesday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
By Wednesday, we will see double barreled upper lows with one
centered over northern Quebec and another centered somewhere over
northern New England. The upper low over New England will eventually
move off into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday into Thursday as the
other upper low starts to dumbbell down into southern Quebec by
Friday evening. This upper low should quickly move across Maine from
northwest to southeast Friday night through early Saturday.
Depending on how the setup evolves, a narrow band of some
accumulating snow will be possible, with the heaviest likely along
or just northeast of the 700 mb low track.
This pattern will lead to normal/slightly above average highs for
this time of year across most of the area. Wednesday will likely be
the warmest day of the work week with the NBM suggesting highs
ranging from mid to upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s south.
For the rest of the work week, expect highs mainly in the upper
teens and lower 20s north, to the low to mid 20s south. Another
modest warmup is then possible through the weekend in advance of a
potentially larger system. While details regarding the late weekend
pattern remain unclear this far out, the NBM high temperature spread
is actually fairly small.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
By the end of the weekend and into the next work week, global
ensembles continue to suggest the potential for a larger storm
somewhere over the eastern CONUS. While the deterministic 12z ECMWF
is certainly impressive for New England, a closer look at the
ensembles/cluster analysis suggests quite a bit of uncertainty, not
at all surprising this far out. While a handful of scenarios remain
possible, clustering does suggest medium to high probabilities for
two general track flavors if there is a storm: a more southern track
which mainly impacts the Mid-Atlantic or a northern track which
would be more impactful for New England. One interesting observation
from the 12z ensemble data was that the 12z ECMWF Ensemble and 12z
GEFS continued to show a decent signal for a storm as well as the
12z AIGEFS, but the 12z ECMWF AIFS Ensemble backed off a touch. So,
it will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if it was
just a hiccup.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected thru midday today. Then snow moves in
from the west and conditions rapidly deteriorate to IFR and
lower. This will affect NH terminals between 18z and 06z and
Maine terminals from 00z and 12z Wednesday.
Outlook:
Wednesday: From KLEB to KPWM snow ends Wednesday morning while IFR
or lower conditions continue elsewhere in low cigs and
occasional snow.
Wednesday night - Saturday night: VFR conditions expected.
Sunday - Monday: Restrictions and snow possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to diminish through this morning with
conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds through this
evening. Low pressure approaches from the NW tonight with
increasing southerly flow overnight. Some southerly winds may
briefly gust to 25 kts tonight along the outer waters. Winds
shift offshore Wednesday as low pressure exits east of the Gulf
of Maine.
SCA conditions are possible in northwesterly flow behind the
departing low pressure system Wednesday night through late this
week. High pressure then builds across the waters into the
weekend. A stronger system could approach by the end of the
weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST
Wednesday for NHZ001>004-006-010.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for NHZ005-007>009-011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schroeter/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
