NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
650
FXUS61 KGYX 092316
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
716 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some minor changes to the forecast. Firstly, have lowered min
temperatures, especially at the better radiators. Secondly, have
raised temperatures for tomorrow more in line with the MAV
guidance which seems more reasonable. In addition, cancelled the
SCA for the bays early.
Tuesday night through Wednesday has continued to trend colder,
increasing the chances for sleet and/or freezing rain across
northern areas, especially the western ME mountains. A brief
period of wintry mix also can`t be ruled out farther south
toward the foothills and Augusta region of western ME.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. One more day of very warm temperatures will continue to eat
away at the snowpack, with melt staying controlled. Ice movement
has been observed with at least one jam reported on the Upper
Ammonoosuc. Flood risk remains low at this time, but these areas
will have to be monitored closely as we get back to active
weather for the second part of the week.
2. Low pressure brings widespread precipitation chances for the
middle of this week. Rain is expected south of the mountains,
while low-level temperatures are trending cold enough to support
freezing rain and sleet across northern areas, particularly the
western ME mountains, and possibly as far south as the
foothills.
3.Cooler temperatures return to finish up the workweek and into
the weekend with an active pattern supporting additional rounds
of precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Today has shaped up nicely with many locations making it into
the upper 50s and low 60s early this afternoon. There are plenty
of clouds out there as low pressure well to our northwest
continues to move easterly, but they have not been a factor. The
seabreeze hasn`t really been a factor either as even the
Midcoast is seeing temperatures into the low 50s. With this in
mind, and more anomalous warmth with clear skies on the way, I
have continued trending temperatures up slightly for tomorrow.
It should be noted that there is still a 5-10 degree spread in
the 25th-75th NBM percentiles, but I think that just speaks to
how much location is going to determine how high you see
temperatures climb tomorrow. Based on today it seems like it
should be pretty easy for interior locations to climb into the
mid- to upper 60s, with locations in the Merrimack Valley maybe
even seeing 70. I am still a little hesitant about going too
warm in coastal locations, particularly the Midcoast, but with
most of the coastline parallel to the winds I don`t think low to
mid-60s is out of the question. Another potentially cooler spot
is going to be the Western Maine Mountains as a front begins to
encroach on that area, but it shouldn`t be by much as the front
has been trending later. Snowpack will continue to be reduced,
but with controlled melt keeping rivers from seeing significant
rises. With that beings said river ice is also seeing decay and
shifting as a result. This has caused at least one jam that we
know of, and while streamflows have been low due to ongoing
drought conditions rivers will have to be watched closely as we
move back into a more active weather pattern for the second half
of the week.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure crosses the Great Lakes Tuesday and then across
northern New England Wednesday night into Thursday, sending a
strong cold front through the region. The column begins to
saturate Tuesday night with most of northern New England north
of/on the cold side of a backdoor cold front and NE winds
supporting CAD setting up. Based on forecast soundings, expected
fog to develop with weak lift also supportive of drizzle in
some areas. Temperatures are also trending cold enough to
support freezing drizzle or light freezing rain/sleet across
portions of the western ME mountains and possibly toward the ME
foothills/Augusta regions.
Have blended in the NAM temperatures as it tends to do the
better of the models in CAD scenarios, and this keeps temps in
the mid-upper 20s across the western ME mountains and northern
NH for much of the day Wednesday and temperatures around the
freezing mark southward toward the ME foothills and Augusta
region into at least Wednesday morning. These areas have
increasing potential to see a longer period of sleet and/or
freezing rain especially the western ME mountains where
temperatures stay colder longer. I have not favored one over the
other as the warm nose with forecast soundings warm enough
aloft to support freezing rain, but the cold layer at the lowest
levels may also be cold enough and deep enough to refreeze it.
For rest of the area, cool and cloudy/dreary conditions with
fog will likely continue through Wednesday, but temperatures are
expected to stay "warm" enough for precip to rain or drizzle.
Depending on where the front sets up, parts of southern NH may
get into the 40s or 50s.
Low pressure approaches Wednesday evening/night with
temperatures warming as the warm front lifts north. It`s
uncertain how far north or how quickly this occurs, but northern
areas still below freezing should eventually get above with
ptype switching to rain. The cold front moves through Thursday
morning, with temperatures falling through the afternoon. As the
cold air pushes in, there may be a brief period of light snow
as precipitation comes to an end. Breezy conditions also kick in
behind the front with forecast soundings suggesting 30-40 mph
possible.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures return to near normals for highs Friday into the
weekend, ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. The pattern
remains active with ensembles in surprisingly good agreement
this far out with timing of two distinct systems to keep an eye
on. The first is late Friday into Friday night and the second is
late Sunday into Monday. Precipitation types are more
uncertain, but both could feature rain and some wintry variety
depending on track. Between these system, there will likely be a
dry period between Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Gusty winds taper off this evening with
VFR conditions prevailing through Tuesday morning. Models
continue to hint as some low level wind shear overnight, but
observations last night showed mostly unidirectional flow so
have left it out of the TAFs for tonight.
Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon: Mostly VFR, but conditions will be trending
downward through the evening as moisture increases ahead of an
incoming system.
Tuesday Night - Thursday: IFR or lower possible with fog, low
ceilings, drizzle, and rain, but can`t rule out a period of
wintry mix as far south as AUG on Wednesday. Rain could end as
snow on Thursday as a cold front moves through, and westerly
winds are expected to become breezy behind the front on
Thursday. Conditions likely start to improve from west to east
later in the day on Thursday.
Thursday night: Mostly VFR.
Friday: VFR, but chances for restrictions/precipitation increase
late in the day.
Friday night: IFR possible with light snow.
Saturday: Most sites return to VFR in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds increase this evening and gusts 25-30 kts
should last through the first part of tonight before tapering
off. Waves will be a little slower to settle off the central
coast of Maine so SCAs remain in effect there until Tuesday
morning, but the bays and southern waters drop out overnight.
Conditions are expected to be fair through the day Tuesday.
Tuesday night-Monday...Easterly winds may approach SCA levels
Wednesday, but are more likely Wednesday night as southerly flow
increases ahead of a cold front that will cross during the
first half of Thursday. Wind gusts may approach gale force ahead
of the front, but gales appear more likely with the west winds
behind the front late Thursday into Thursday night. Additional
periods of at least SCA conditions, possible gales too, over the
weekend into early next week as two additional system move
across the region. The first is late Friday into early Saturday
with the second late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures on Tuesday will approach daily record highs at
long term climate sites.
Site Location Forecast Temperate Record Temperature Record Year
Augusta 65F 64F 2016
Concord 70F 72F 1878
Portland 65F 66F 2016
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Combs
AVIATION...
MARINE...
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
