NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
873
FXUS61 KGYX 121832
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
132 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs are now minimal on Sunday night into early Monday as
confidence is high in strong low pressure tracking out to sea.
However, some scattered light snow is still possible for some
areas. Impacts, if any, are expected to be very minor.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly dry through the end of the week with more seasonable
temperatures that look to trend above normal heading into next
week.
2. Confidence is high in a larger system taking a track out to
sea in the Sunday night/Monday time frame, resulting in just
some scattered light snow. The long term pattern supports active
weather with the potential for more widespread precipitation
later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Snow showers in the mountains are coming to an end this
afternoon behind a departing shortwave. Clear skies will remain
for the majority of the CWA, but clouds will linger in the
mountains. I nudged temperatures down a little bit in the
sheltered areas that usually radiate well, but somewhat of a
breeze looks to keep most areas well mixed and the clouds in the
mountains should keep those areas from decoupling as well. This
results in single digits areawide for low temperatures.
Mean troughing remains over the region to end the week with
northwest flow keeping temperatures on the seasonable side.
Daytime temperatures Friday and Saturday look to end up in the
mid- to upper 20s across the north and in the low to mid-30s in
the south. This will also keep nighttime temperatures cold with
teens and single digits expected. As is common with northwest
flow, the mountains are likely to see some snow showers
especially with a shortwave crossing Friday night and then again
Saturday night as a closed upper low moves across Maine with a
surface cold front. If we end up with high Froude numbers some
light snow showers and/or flurries are possible south of the
mountains, but otherwise there isn`t much moisture to work with
so activity should be pretty limited. Beginning Sunday, we see
an extended period of southwesterly flow that will trend
temperatures above normal. Temperatures at 850mb look like they
will rise to the freezing mark, if not slightly above, by
midweek which should be good for temperatures in the upper 30s
to near 40F at the surface. This will no doubt feel quite
pleasant after this long stretch of below normal temperatures we
have endured.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
At this point I am confident in saying we shouldn`t expect much
in the Sunday night/Monday time frame as ensemble solutions
have become clustered well out to sea. However, an approaching
shortwave and surface front provides the forcing for at least
some light snow during this period with minimal impacts.
Following that, the pattern becomes dominated by zonal flow and
global models suggest (with some timing differences) that a
frontal boundary sinks southward into our area midweek with low
pressure riding along it. This now looks like our best chance
for widespread precipitation and with temperatures looking to
trend above normal during this time we may be looking at some
rain mixing in, something we haven`t had to worry about much
through this very cold stretch we are finally coming out of.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...MVFR to near MVFR conditions will prevail
at HIE, but all other terminals should see VFR prevail into
Friday afternoon. Wind gusts 20-25kts continue for a couple more
hours, but should begin calming after 21Z.
Outlook...
Friday night-Saturday night: Periods of light snow may bring
about brief MVFR/IFR conditions Friday night and Saturday night,
with HIE and LEB having the highest chance of this occuring.
Otherwise, VFR prevails.
Sunday night-Tuesday: Some light snow showers may bring
localized brief MVFR/IFR conditions Sunday night into Monday
with MVFR ceilings common during this time as well, but
otherwise conditions trend back to VFR for Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Frequent northwesterly gusts exceeding 25kts will continue
through tonight. Winds shift westerly and calm below SCA
criteria for Friday, with seas remaining 1-3ft.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday
as a front crosses the waters. Another system may bring about
SCA conditions midweek, but otherwise sub-SCA conditions are
expected.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
