NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
461
FXUS61 KGYX 291149
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
649 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for much of New
Hampshire and portions of western Maine tonight into Friday
morning. Wind chills have trended cooler for these regions as
winds remain breezy overnight in cold advection.
No significant trends in the coastal low with a close approach
to Southern New England with periphery minor coastal impacts
still in the cards.
640am Update...Added the mention of scattered snow showers NW of
the Whites today as moisture advects eastward. Downslope drying should
limit how much of this activity makes it into the foothills or
interior, but can`t rule out a few flakes falling this
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Below normal temperatures continue through Friday. A Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for much of New Hampshire, far
southern Maine, and the western Maine mountains for tonight
into Friday morning. This is due to wind chills falling into the
double digits below zero. These temperatures can cause
frostbite to exposed skin in as little as 10 to 30 minutes.
2. A strong coastal low may bring impacts to the coast on Sunday,
but most guidance favors a track far enough offshore to keep the
impacts minimal.
3. Marine weather impacts are expected Sunday into Monday as the
close approaching coastal low brings Gale/Storm force winds.
4. High Astronomical Tides Sunday through Monday and the close
approaching coastal low provide a threat for minor coastal flooding
late this weekend into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cold weather continues today with highs in the teens to lower
20s depending on location and elevation. Otherwise fair weather
is expected with a mix of sun and clouds. A reinforcing shot of
cold air arrives later this afternoon and evening from the
northwest. Winds will increase some, and temperatures will drop.
As such, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for our
much of NH, the western Maine mountains, and interior York Co
for wind chill values lowering to around -20 to -25F tonight.
Other than mountain snow showers on Saturday, it`s just
continuing cold with wind chills around zero most of the day on
the coast and -10F well inland.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Global models continue to advertise a
strong coastal low lifting to the north-northeast offshore of the
eastern seaboard Sunday into Sunday night. Over the last 12 hrs
ensemble mean guidance hasn`t shown any large trends between the
GEFS and EPS camps, with a slight trend further east in the GEFS
with the EPS staying steady, or just the slightest trend back
eastward with the mean surface low. One slightly interesting
observation was the 18z EPS did have a few more outliers
further west after a constant shift eastward over the past
48hrs. Not enough of a signal to make a change in the forecast,
still looks like periphery coastal impact event, mostly on the
wind, seas, and coastal flood side of things. Not expecting much
of any snowfall impacts, but will continue to watch any
noticeable trends over the next 24hrs.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...Even though land based impacts
Sunday through Monday look to be limited with the storm passing
offshore to our south, marine impacts are still possible, if not
likely. Gale force winds are looking likely at this point with
a strong pressure gradient on northerly winds between the ridge
over Quebec and the deep surface low south of the Gulf of Maine.
Offshore flow will limit large waves to the outer coastal
waters.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...High Astronomical Tides are expected
Sunday through Monday with a 10.9 MLLW tide at Portland during
both Sunday and Monday morning. It will only take a foot to foot
and half of storm surge for minor inundation flooding.
Fortunately it looks like the peak surge will occur on Sunday
afternoon/evening, with the lower of the two daily high tides,
in addition, nearshore waves with the more north to northeast
winds won`t be a huge factor. Will have to watch the NH seacoast
with a slightly more favorable fetch. Overall feel this will be
a worst case flood advisory event at this time, but will have to
watch closely.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions are expected this morning
through Friday for much of the area. Exception will be terminals
NW of the mountains where periods of light SHSN and MVFR
ceilings rotate through. WNW winds increase later this morning,
particularly across central ME and the western ME mountains.
Can`t rule out some flurries and MVFR bases during the afternoon through
southern NH and ME, but vis restrictions are unlikely SE of the
mountains. Winds and SHSN slacken this evening, but remain
breezy.
Outlook:
Friday night through Saturday night - VFR conditions with
continued cold weather.
Sunday through Monday - Coastal low tracks south of the area,
with gusty winds on Sunday, but overall ceilings and
visibilities will stay above MVFR
Monday Night through Wednesday - Quiet weather with VFR
conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday...Northwesterly winds are expected through
tonight. With another shot of cold air once again overspreading
the waters later today and tonight, SCAs have been issued along
with freezing spray advisories.
Outlook:
Friday night through Saturday night - Quiet weather over the
coastal waters with light winds.
Sunday through Monday - Strong coastal low tracks south of the
Gulf of Maine, bringing a period of Gale or Storm Force Winds.
Monday Night through Wednesday - High pressure in control with
limited marine weather impacts expected.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
Friday for MEZ007>009-018.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
Friday for NHZ001>013-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Friday for ANZ150>152-154.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Friday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Dumont/Ekster
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
