NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
450
FXUS61 KGYX 121120
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs in the mountains over the next hours to leave
mention of upslope snow showers in the forecast a little longer.
No other changes needed at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some light snow showers or flurries remain possible over the
Midcoast and across the mountains through this morning, then
mainly dry conditions prevail until at least Saturday.
2. Seasonable temperatures are likely through the end of the week
and into the weekend, with above average temperatures possible next
week.
3. A potential system late this weekend and early next week continues
to waffle back and forth on recent model runs, but remains an
item of focus. Currently limited threat for an impactful system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An upper low and associated surface low move up into the Canadian
Maritimes this morning as an inverted trough extends to the west of
the surface low and rotates down into the Midcoast. Thus, we can
expect some more light snow here through around 12z or so, but only
a light coating of additional accumulation is expected. The
mountains and vicinity will also see some lingering snow showers
through the morning given upslope flow, but this activity should
diminish by early afternoon as upper ridging starts to nudge
in. Mainly dry conditions are then expected until at least
Saturday when another quick moving upper low may lead to some
more light snow depending on the eventual track.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures will mainly be seasonal through the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Highs through Saturday will generally range
from the upper teens to mid 20s north, to the low to mid 30s south.
It then appears that a more substantial warmup will commence Sunday
into next week with readings possibly back into the 40s by Monday.
Widespread values in the 40s are then looking more possible by
midweek. Lows will generally remain slightly below normal through at
least the weekend with a decent snowpack in place.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Attention remains on a potential system for Sunday and Monday.
Models and ensemble members have continued to show a widespread
array of solutions for storm track. The general consensus appears
to be a more out to sea track, but confidence remains very low.
The main source of uncertainty pertains to how quickly a shortwave
in the northern jet stream branch merges with a moisture-rich wave
in the southern branch. Models will likely continue to wobble back
and forth with the timing of this convergence, with a clearer
picture unlikely to emerge until at least late Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Periods of MVFR ceilings remain possible
this morning at HIE, LEB, RKD, and AUG but mainly VFR as clouds
decrease through the morning and afternoon. The exception is
MVFR ceilings could linger at HIE through early this evening.
Prevailing VFR expected tonight.
Outlook:
Friday - Sunday AM: VFR prevails.
Sunday - Monday: Restrictions with snow are possible. Should the
storm miss to the south, VFR would prevail.
Tuesday: VFR most likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada through the day as
high pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions continue
through the day in northwesterly flow and will likely linger
into early Friday. High pressure then builds across the waters
into the weekend, with conditions mostly below SCA levels late
Friday and into the weekend. Low pressure likely then tracks
south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Hargrove/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
