NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
678
FXUS61 KGYX 151122
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
622 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED..
Chances for light snow Monday night into Tuesday morning have
increased. Any accumulation will be light but may bring slick
travel for the Tuesday morning commute.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Two weak systems will bring chances for light snow tonight
and again Monday night into Tuesday morning. A coating of snow
will be possible in time to bring slick travel to the Tuesday
morning commute.
2. The pattern in the extended forecast period supports active
weather with generally zonal flow and the suggestion of some
shortwaves crossing the area. One or two widespread
precipitation events are possible, but models are waffling so
the details are still uncertain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure builds in today behind a cold front that crosses this
morning. An area of low pressure passes well south of New England
tonight that will bring mostly cloudy skies and slight chances for
light snow across mainly southern New Hampshire. Little to no
accumulation is expected. Temperatures will moderate Monday into
Tuesday with a warm front crossing the area Monday night into
Tuesday morning. This warm front will bring chances for a
period of light snow into the Tuesday morning commute. Mesoscale
models suggest that a coating to an inch of snow will possible
by Tuesday morning that could slicken up roads. Chances for
precipitation will diminish through the day Tuesday with
temperatures climbing into the low 40s to upper 30s Tuesday
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The end of the upcoming week looks to be a fairly active one, with
potentially two systems on the way. First, an upper-level ridge
slides eastward through the first half of the week, bringing above
average temperatures to the northeast. This ridge will evaporate in
by the mid-week as a broad trough expands across most of North
America, and will form a relatively zonal pattern through the second
half of the week. This is important because how this transition into
zonal upper-level flow happens could dictate whether northern New
England gets snow, rain, or nothing on Thursday. Likewise, models
remain stumped on how this transition comes about, so storm tracks
are still very uncertain as a result. I like what I see in the 18Z
ECMWF deterministic run, showing the stripe of snowfall across
southern and central New Hampshire, with perhaps a rain to snow
transition along the MA border and mostly dry weather across Maine.
The past deterministic ECMWF runs have also shown very similar
solutions, which is nice to see especially when the ensembles are
all over the place. In addition, snowfall probabilities have
increased by about 10-20% from where they were last night, with
about a 40-50% chance to see greater than 3 inches of snow across
most of New Hampshire.
The next round of wintry precipitation looks to arrive for next
weekend. A low pressure system appears to mature over the central US
and should allow for the redevelopment of the aforementioned upper-
level ridge across the eastern US. As this low matures, its system
of frontal boundaries will slide quickly to the east, while the
center of the low continues to stall over the central US. This will
deprive the aforementioned low of moisture, allowing for it to
dissipate. The system of frontal boundaries will then move over a
favorable upper-level regime, igniting the development of a new low
over the northeastern US. All of this will inhibit the upper-level
ridge from moving farther northward, combined with high pressure to
the north. This will allow the colder air to remain present over
northern New England and bring winter weather to the area. Where the
uncertainty lies in this system is in the positioning of the first
low across the central US and then where precisely the second low
redevelops. The past two deterministic ECMWF runs have been
positioning these lows a little further to the south than the GFS,
so the ECMWF looks to be the colder solution and the GFS the warmer
solution. The ECMWF has mostly snow over the region, while the GFS
has more of an overrunning feature as the more northerly position of
the 2nd surface low will nudge the ridge a little further to the
north. Measurable snowfall appears to be possible with the system,
though a clearer picture of precipitation types and snowfall amounts
should reveal itself by mid-next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Skies are quickly clearing out behind a
frontal boundary with VFR expected to prevail today, except a
brief period of MVFR cigs will be possible for the southern
NH terminals through 13Z. A period of higher wind gusts to
around 20 kt may occur through 15-16Z this morning, and these
could continue through the afternoon at the coastal sites.
Clouds increase with cigs lowering close to MVFR thresholds
across New Hampshire TAF sites.
Outlook...
Monday: Any MVFR to start will trend toward VFR for the
afternoon. Ceilings than return to MVFR monday night as a
disturbance moves through that will bring a chance of light snow
for most terminals.
Tuesday: Chances for rain and snow showers will bring occasional
MVFR with conditions improving to VFR Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR to start Wednesday morning with
the next system bringing chances for precipitation late
Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front crosses the waters this morning bringing a brief
period of winds gusting to 25 kts. Winds and seas generally stay
below SCA thresholds this afternoon into Tuesday. An area of low
pressure passing well south of New England will send building
seas into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night when seas will
approach 5 feet. ENE winds will increase Wednesday night on the
north side of a stationary front that could gust to 25 kts.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Palmer/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
