NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
279
FXUS61 KGYX 181111
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
611 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure drifts off the Northeast coast today,
southerly winds will begin to increase ahead of an approaching
storm. While the storm drives a strong cold front towards the
region, those southerly gusts by Friday will top 40 to 50 mph or
more at times, especially near the coast. This will also send
temperatures climbing through the 40s into the 50s in places.
After maybe a brief start as snow in the highest elevations, all
rain is expected across the area. Snow melt is unlikely to
cause flooding, but some areas may lose all the current
snowpack. As the front crosses the area temperatures will begin
a steady decline into the 20s by Saturday morning. A weak system
will cross north of the area Saturday night, but only light
snow or snow showers are expected. Another clipper is then
possible by late Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6am Update...Just enough breeze through the late night hours
here w/ passing front to keep the area warmer than forecast.
Adjusted this trend for the next couple hours, but focus was
adding fog tonight. Pretty robust signal in the HREF for rapidly
lowering ceilings and visibility into the evening hours.
Temp/moisture advection increasing from the SW should overrun
cold snowpack and produce fog across the interior. This may not
migrate to the immediate coast until later in the night/Fri
morning.
Previous Discussion...
A weak sfc cold front will continue to cross the region through
early this morning with sfc high pressure located over southeastern
New England. This area of high pressure will begin to drift offshore
later today ahead of our next storm system, which will be moving
across the Upper Mid-West. It will be another dry with with partly
cloudy skies and high temperatures mainly into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
-Tranquil weather through today with little to no weather related
impacts.
-Rain with strong to possibly locally damaging winds late tonight
through Friday.
-Minor nuisance flooding possible along with river rises and
river ice breakup.
Discussion:
Clouds will increase this evening with widespread rain moving in
after midnight as the aforementioned low moves over Quebec and sends
a sfc warm front northward across New England. Temperatures will
initially cool to near the freezing mark in many locations away from
the immediate coast but then rise overnight as southerly winds
increase. Temperatures by Friday morning should be into the 40s to
lower 50s. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will then
persist through the day on Friday with temperatures warming into the
lower to middle 50s for most locations. Rain will end from west to
east Friday evening behind a trailing cold front with temperatures
falling sharply behind developing westerly flow. Latest
ensemble mean QPF has not changed too much with most locations
averaging between 0.50"-1.00" but higher amounts are likely in
the south facing terrain with upwards of 2.00" of QPF possible.
This rain combined with anticipated snow melt will likely result
in river rises and perhaps some ice breakup but other than some
minor nuisance flooding from clogged storm drains/low spots, no
significant flooding is expected.
Strong to perhaps locally damaging winds continues to be the main
thing to watch with this system as a stout S-SE LLJ arrives near the
triple point. Widespread wind gusts between 45-50 mph are
expected south of the mountains with gusts up to 55 mph across
portions of the Mid-Coast on Friday. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for these locations. Winds will become westerly behind
the cold front Friday night into Saturday with gusts up to 35
mph likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message: Near normal temps thru the extended with frequent
chances for precip. At this time however any precip amounts
look light.
Impacts: There are a couple of chances for light snow. One
mainly overnight on the weekend and not a significant
impact...but another near Christmas Eve might be enough to cause
some travel delays.
Forecast Details: Largely sticking close the latest NBM
guidance with the ensemble forecasts showing low chances of
anomalous weather.
A shortwave trof will cross the northern tier Sat
night...taking an Alberta Clipper-like track. At this time it
looks a little too far north to bring appreciable chances for
snowfall for all of the forecast area. There will be dry air to
contend with along with the best lift remaining north...so at
this time likely PoP remains in the higher terrain only.
Behind that system it does look like winds may be breezy both
Sun and Mon as colder air pours into the region. It will be
enough of a breeze to make temps feel colder than they
are...especially by Mon when most of the area remains in the
teens and 20s.
The next period to watch will be towards Christmas Eve...when
another shortwave approaches the region. Similar to our weekend
system...but passing a little farther south on average and with
better boundary layer saturation. The result is a more
widespread light snowfall. If we can amplify the downstream
ridging a little more thru the Canadian Maritimes I could also
see a low-end advisory type scenario.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today with cirrus this afternoon. HREF
probabilities suggest a rapid thickening and lowering of cloud
base into this evening, perhaps quickly MVFR to IFR by mid-evening
for all terminals south and east of the higher terrain. Warm
air moving over snowpack may also induce ground fog, reducing
vis after 00z. Expect evening onset of LLWS as well across the
area. Southerly winds and gusts increase overnight and through
Friday with coastal gusts increasing 30-45kts. Interior gusts
lower and less frequent. Convective line of showers embedded in
widespread RA may bring tempo stronger gusts across the area Fri
afternoon. May see some downslope gusts at HIE exceeding 35
kts. Hard wind shift W Friday evening with gusts remaining 25-30
kt overnight into Saturday.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected in the extended.
There will be two periods of potential light snow where areas of
IFR or lower conditions could be possible. The first event Sat
night looks to stay farther north and largely misses the TAF
sites...and at this time maybe some brief MVFR CIGs are
possible. The second comes closer to midweek and has a better
chance to bring more coverage of IFR conditions to the TAF
sites...though confidence remains low.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...S winds increase tonight into Fri with gale force
gusts expected and storm force gusts across the outer eastern
waters. Seas will build to 10-15 ft outside of the bays with 3-6
ft in the bays themselves.
Long Term...Southwest winds will increase behind a warm front
Sat night and SCA conditions are likely outside of the bays. As
cold advection begins behind the system there is a chance for
some marginal gale force gusts on the outer waters. Otherwise
SCA conditions linger into Mon night or early Tue. Only a brief
break is anticipated before the next system brings SCA
conditions back to the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ012>014-
018>028-033.
NH...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for NHZ006-008>010-
012>015.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ150.
Gale Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ151>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Legro/Cornwell
MARINE...Legro/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
