NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
452
FXUS61 KGYX 271926
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
226 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Trend continues for warmer temperatures this Saturday. This is
to be followed by some light snow and a rapid return to cooler
temperatures late this weekend and to begin next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warmer temperatures in store for Saturday.
2. An area of snow will move across the forecast area Sunday
resulting in a quick but light accumulation of snow.
3. Next week harbors a couple chances for precipitation, mainly
in the Tuesday/Tuesday night and late week timeframe, as well
as a fairly confident signal for a late week warm up. This
pattern could result in mixed wintry precipitation for a portion
of the area, as well as snowmelt/and some river ice rot during
the daytime.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will approach the region
Sat and will affect sensible weather in two ways. One will be warm
advection and compressional warming ahead of the front will allow
temps to climb into the 40s. There may even be a run at 50 degrees
for a few locations. Across the interior the southwest flow may also
fail to really scour out the low level cold, especially with deep
snow cover, and afternoon readings could end up closer to 40. The
second factor will be showers along the front. Given the mild temps
these may be rain or snow depending on location and time of arrival.
And precip may be briefly heavy as it moves thru quickly during the
afternoon and evening. This will mainly affect the mtns and maybe
clip the lower Kennebec River Valley.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A trough passing through New England will bring a period of
light snow to the forecast area Sunday. Forecast accumulations
come out to just around an inch, but will push through the CWA
through the day. Morning travel could be slick across much of
NH, with the afternoon focus on ME.
Overall lift is limited despite a deepening DGZ. Thus would
expect increased snow rates to be brief within the event. NBM
v5 probabilities of exceeding 2" are also below 20% for the area
through Sunday evening.
The passing trough will welcome back much cooler temperatures
overnight, with lows plummeting back into the single digits
above and below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Three topics for next week featuring two main precip windows
and then a warming temperature trend. The two precip makers
still have a wide range of outcomes, with even the warming trend
including an asterisk with it.
Focusing first on the early to mid week system, it follows on
the heels of exiting high pressure across the eastern CONUS.
Highs don`t get as much glory as their counterparts, but the
increasing chance of a 1040mb MSLP high through the Northeast
represents a strong high for this time of year. It will be
responsible for a cool down Sunday night through Monday night
(highs in the teens and 20s, lows in the single digits above and
below zero), and also swift return, warming, flow into the
middle of the week. QPF presentation of low pressure flatly
exiting the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is represented across
guidance, but some hints of phasing and different transit speed
leaves a lot on the table for potential totals and temperature
profiles. Given the chance for above freezing temperature layers
in this system, mixed precip may be possible for a portion of
the area. For now this could materialize across the southern
third of the forecast area.
Into late week, another system looks possible, along with a
likely warmup. This will again likely feature strong high
pressure, instead positioned to the north and west. Will need to
watch how much dry air could be forced into northern New
England for late week that could temper QPF expectations. This
high will also play a role in how far north the second system
pushes, thus exactly how warm it gets late week will also depend
on this weather system. For now, highs in the 40s Wed-Thurs and
maybe Friday will be possible. As with the early week system, a
chance for mixed precip also exists with the next round. As
ensembles struggle represent CAD, would need rely on broad
pattern recognition should overnight temps in the teens and 20s
lock in across the interior.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail thru Sat
afternoon. Some high clouds tonight will not impact flight
conditions. An approaching cold front may bring scattered rain
and snow showers to the mtns Sat afternoon. Local MVFR or lower
conditions are possible, mainly at HIE.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Continued VFR overnight with thickening and
lowering cigs.
Sunday: MVFR cigs with MVFR to IFR vis in SN.
Sunday Night thru Monday Night: Improving to VFR in the evening
and overnight as high pressure settles overhead.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Skies thicken and lower with the
chance of SN reducing visibility. Uncertainty on timing and
exact impacts.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front. Warm advection over cold ocean waters will struggle
to mix down the strongest wind gusts, but a period of marginal
SCA gusts is expected Sat. SCA remain in effect for all waters.
Winds and seas will begin to diminish Sat night.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
