NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
585
FXUS61 KGYX 271747
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1247 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes for this forecast package.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Well below normal temperatures continue through the work week
with periodic low chances of snow showers, mainly across the
mountains.
2. Model trends are being closely monitored as confidence is
increasing in low pressure taking a track up the East Coast this
weekend. Impacts will depend on the proximity of this system to
the coast which is highly uncertain at this time.
3. There is a signal for a return of more seasonable
temperatures early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A progressive upper level ridge axis will continue to propagate
across the region today from west to east with a shortwave on it`s
heels. As we transition back into southwest flow aloft, we will see
some isolated to scattered snow showers later this afternoon and
into the evening, mainly across the mountains as the weak wave moves
across. Most will see little to no new accumulation with this
activity, but a quick tenth of an inch or two will be possible under
the heavier showers. We will see a couple more weak shortwaves
traverse the forecast area through the end of the work week, but
most of the light snow related to these waves will mainly be
confined to the mountains and foothills.
The week will also remain cold as we continue to dig out from the
previous storm. NBM highs today through Thursday will generally
range from the upper single digits and lower teens north, to the
upper teens and lower 20s south. Friday then may be the coldest day
of the week with highs forecast to range from the low to mid single
digits above zero north, to the mid/upper teens south. Each night we
should also see widespread lows around or below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
It is hard to ignore the sharp trend eastward in the overnight
runs of the Global models (and the 12Z GFS/GEFS), but some flip
flopping at this time range is not uncommon. What seems the most
certain is that low pressure is going to be taking a track up
the East Coast, but the proximity to the coast is one of the
most uncertain details at this time while also being the largest
determinate of potential impacts. If models continue to trend
toward a more amplified ridge out west, the trough is going to
end up sweeping the system further out to sea, but a less
amplified ridge would allow it closer to the coast. It seems
fair to say that this low is going to be stronger than the one
we just dealt with and as a result I would say that coastal
areas have the best chance of seeing something. A deeper low
means a more expansive precipitation shield so even a more out
to sea track could bring accumulating snow to the coast. The
other aspect is that this system will be passing during a time
of high astronomical tides, so its proximity to the coast will
make the difference between just some splash-over and minor
coastal flooding. Interior locations should still keep a close
eye on the forecast, but at this time it appears impactful
weather is less likely. We expect changes and for more details
to be able to be fleshed out in the coming days.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Warm air advection aloft behind a departing trough combined
with high pressure building in at the surface looks to put
temperatures on an upward trend, back to near normal, heading
into next week. Unfortunately, this is the climatological
coldest part of the winter for us so the reality of this is that
we are just going from very cold to cold. 850 mb temperatures
modeled to rise to around -10C should be good for temperatures
rising into the upper 20s to near the freezing mark south of the
mountains (with low 20s to the north) depending on how quickly
high pressure builds in and clears skies.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While VFR conditions are generally expected through Wednesday,
isolated to scattered snow showers could lead to some local IFR/MVFR
or lower visibilities this afternoon and into the early evening. The
threat of snow showers ends later in the evening with mainly VFR
prevailing tonight, except at KHIE where upslope flow may allow for
prevailing MVFR.
Outlook:
Thursday-Saturday: VFR should prevail at all terminals with no
significant weather expected late this week.
Sunday: Low confidence currently in what Sunday`s conditions
are going to look like as they rely heavily on the track of a
coastal storm. At least widespread MVFR is likely, with
widespread IFR possible in snow.
&&
.MARINE...While off-shore winds diminish through the day, SCA
conditions will be in place through the first part of tonight
with elevated seas. As the core of the cold air aloft moves
overhead this afternoon, snow showers will become more numerous
over the waters. Local visibility below 1 mile is possible. Seas
then start to diminish overnight and through the day on
Wednesday.
A period of wind gusts 25-30kts is likely outside of the bays
Thursday night into early Friday morning as a pressure gradient
tightens over the region. These ease during the day Friday, with
a brief window of tranquil weather through the day Saturday as
high pressure crosses the waters. Saturday night a strong
coastal low pressure system approaches the region quickly
ramping winds up to SCA and potentially gale force by Sunday
morning. Depending on the strength of this system storm force
winds would not be out of the question for Sunday. Seas rise to
8-10 ft as this system passes as well. Conditions would then
ease through the day Monday potentially falling below SCA
criteria by Tuesday morning.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
