NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
077
FXUS61 KGYX 172157
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
457 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in the coastal plain seeing accumulating snow Sunday
night is increasing as more model solutions trend slightly
westward, but higher than usual uncertainty remains in totals at
this time range.
Update...The Winter Weather Advisory for NH has expired as snow
rates weaken and the back edge of snow makes its way northeast.
Light snow showers will continue for another hour or so, but the
bulk of accumulating snow has ended. With the axis of better
snowfall rates still aligned with the Maine coast and interior,
this Advisory will persist for a couple more hours.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Snow will taper off through the evening southwest to
northeast across the forecast area. Slick travel from fallen
snow is expected through the evening.
2. A coastal storm that stays mostly out to sea spreads some
snow onto the coastal plain Sunday night. Amounts may be
plowable and slick travel is likely. Lighter amounts expand into
the foothills and mountains where some accumulation may result
in slick travel. Winter Weather Advisories may eventually be
needed for the coastal plain and southern New Hampshire.
3. Below normal temperatures are likely from Tuesday onward
next week as a series of Arctic air masses descend upon the
Northeast. Several nights of sub-zero ambient or wind chill
temperatures are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Decreasing snow rates are expected this afternoon as the core
of forcing and moisture moves east. Remaining impacts into the
evening will be slick travel conditions from fresh snowfall.
Winds are expected to remain light tonight.
Drier air will continue to invade through the evening, ending
precipitation. A few light snow showers may remain towards the
Kennebec Valley into the overnight hours, but confidence is
currently low here.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Unfortunately hi-res model guidance is not bringing about any
confidence in the track of the coastal storm Sunday night. The
differences between the 12z NAMNest and 12Z HRRR are frankly
shocking, with the HRRR showing more of a negative tilt to the
trough allowing for snow amounts on the order of 3-5" on the
coastal plain. The NAMNest shows a slightly positive tilt, but
flattens out the trough as it does. This keeps the precip shield
suppressed with snowfall amounts a resounding zero for all but
far southern New Hampshire where it thinks up to an inch may be
possible.
Hedging with the ensembles looks like the way to continue with
this forecast package. The GEFS and Euro Ensemble are holding
steady with 20-30% of members bringing greater than 3" of
accumulating snow to the coastal plain and 10% for the
foothills. Accumulating snowfall does seem likely with amounts
greater than 1" in a tight gradient of 50-80% probabilities from
the foothills down to the coast. The AI Ensembles remain
bullish with a tight 50-70% probability gradient of greater than
3" from the foothills southward. Lastly the HREF, has little to
no accumulation in the foothills with around 2-3" along the
coast and local smatterings of 4".
There are two main takeaways here among all this uncertainty.
The confidence in the system is high, a coastal storm is going
to pass on Sunday night and some snow seems likely as a result.
The low confidence is in the extent of the precipitation
shield, and while all the models have slightly different
opinions on totals, it seems clear the gradient is going to be
tight. Coastal locations should expect to see the higher end of
amounts weather that ends up being 1" or 4". That segues into
the next takeaway nicely in that fortunately we aren`t caught
between a blockbuster and nothing, it was mentioned in a
previous AFD, and it continues to look like, this ends up as an
advisory scenario at worst (less than 6"). Anyone south of the
foothills should prepare to see some snow, but don`t be too
disappointed if it is not as much (or as little) as you`d hoped.
Ultimately, the current forecast calls for 1-3" from the
foothills southward (lower amounts to the north, higher near the
coast), but any slight shifts in the track of this system will
change that.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The eastern U.S. remains under a broad trough through next
week. This allows some Arctic air intrusion, plummeting
temperatures well below normal. High pressure builds in at the
surface midweek which if it aligns correctly could further allow
very cold overnight low temperatures. Some shortwaves traverse
the broader trough during the week as well, but one looks to
align with high pressure at the surface midweek. The better
chance for one resulting in snow looks to come more toward the
late week time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...MVFR to IFR as SN moves across the area
this afternoon. Vis lifts readily through 2z this evening as
snow tapers SW to NE. This should also allow cigs to improve to
VFR for most locations. AUG and HIE may linger restrictions.
Mostly VFR then after midnight with some SHSN towards the US/CAN
border. Ceilings thicken and lower through Sunday again, with
restrictions possibly working into coastal/southern NH terminals
in the afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: IFR for most terminals in snow. More northern
terminals like LEB and HIE may remain MVFR is precipitation stays
south.
Monday: Precipitation comes to an end and ceilings lift to VFR. HIE
may remain MVFR.
Monday Night-Tuesday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals.
Wednesday: Ceilings lower through the day, with most terminals VFR
by the afternoon.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR prevails with light snow showers
possible. IFR restrictions possible at terminals that see these
showers move overhead.
&&
.MARINE...
Weak low pressure crosses the waters this evening with SCA
conditions continuing overnight. Wave heights may remain 4 to 6
ft over the coastal waters outside the Midcoast, but general
decrease in wave heights is expected along the NH Seacoast and
off the York coast.
A window for sub-SCA conditions continues to be Sunday night.
After that it looks like, between periods of elevated wind gusts
and elevated seas, SCAs are going to potentially be needed for
the bulk of next week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for
MEZ018>021-023>026.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Cornwell
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
