NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
114
FXUS61 KGYX 101810
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
110 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain, snow, and a wintry mix impact the region tonight and on
Sunday.
2) Above normal temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday while
a couple of weak clippers move through. Precipitation chances
potentially linger into the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1 Discussion...
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes tonight and
tomorrow, as a second low pressure center develops and deepens
in the Gulf of Maine. With temperatures in the 40s during the
daytime today, the system has limited cold air to work with, and
will have to rely on wet bulbing for cooling tonight, and cold
air advection on Sunday as the coastal low deepens.
With the given set up, precip overspreads the area from south
to north this evening and into the overnight hours. Precip
likely starts as rain across southern NH and the southwest coast
of Maine. As precip intensity increases, a flip to snow is
expected across coastal Maine, and then a switch back to rain
after a few hours of snow as the wet bulb cooling is maxed out
and warmer air continues to work in off the ocean. Across the
Seacoast of NH, precip likely remains mostly rain through the
overnight hours.
North of these areas, a period of freezing rain and sleet is
expected as temperatures remain at of just below freezing at the
surface, and warmer air moves in aloft. Generally around a
tenth of an inch of ice is expected. A flip back to snow is then
expected in these areas and along the Maine coastal around
sunrise tomorrow as the coastal low deepens and draws cooler air
southward. Through the NH Seacoast, precip likely ends before
the cold air arrives, so little more than a few snowflakes are
expected tomorrow morning.
Across the north, mainly snow is expected as the column remains
cold. A brief period of sleet is possible even into the
mountains as the warm air aloft reaches its northernmost extent.
Cooler air then drains in as the coastal low deepens, and the
low also provides sufficient moisture to keep light snow ongoing
much of the day on Sunday.
Elsewhere, precip comes to an end through the morning hours.
Mainly cloudy skies and cold air advection from the deepening
low keep highs confined to the low to mid 30s, while 20s are
expected across the north. Scattered snow showers will be
possible in the afternoon hours as the cold front from the
parent low crosses northern New England.
Temperatures then fall tomorrow night, freezing up any
remaining slush or standing water. Lows fall into the teens to
low 20s across the area, with a gusty west wind of around 30 mph
through the overnight.
Key Message 2 Discussion...
Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year on
Monday with highs forecast to mainly range from lower 20s north,
to the low to mid 30s south. A low amplitude ridge axis moves
through the region Monday afternoon and we transition back into
southwest flow aloft Monday night as a weak wave approaches.
Moisture will be limited with this wave so we only expect some
low chances for mountain snow showers at the moment Monday
night.
Steady warm air advection will lead to above normal temperatures on
Tuesday with highs forecast to range from the upper 20s and lower
30s north, to the lower 40s south. Another progressive ridge axis
moves through on Tuesday afternoon, which will keep most of the area
dry but the next shortwave approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Expect on and off low to medium chances of rain and snow through at
least Thursday night as multiple waves cross the region. Highs on
Wednesday will be even warmer, ranging from the low to mid 30s
north, to the low to mid 40s south. Snow will mainly be confined to
the higher terrain and across the north Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening as rain should remain the dominant precipitation
type south. That being said, a cold front will cross the area
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will promote falling
temperatures through the day and any lingering precipitation should
transition to all snow. When all is said and done, QPF and snow
amounts appear to generally be light at this time, but we will be
keeping a close eye on these waves as we move closer.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR quickly drop to IFR as precip spreads from south to north
through the evening hours. Mainly rain is expected at MHT and
PSM, periods of rain, snow, and pellets are likely at CON, LEB,
PWM, and RKD. Snow and pellets are likely at HIE and AUG, with
freezing rain also possible at AUG and CON. Precip ends as snow
Sunday morning at most terminals, with IFR continuing through
midday. Light snow continues at HIE and AUG into the afternoon.
Improvement to MVFR is likely by late tomorrow afternoon, with
VFR returning tomorrow night. HIE and LEB likely hold on to MVFR
ceilings through Sunday night.
Outlook:
Monday: Any lingering MVFR improves to VFR as the day goes on.
Westerly wind gusts 20-30 kts possible at all terminals, easing into
Monday evening.
Monday night: VFR prevails at most terminals. MVFR possible at HIE.
Tuesday: VFR prevails at most terminals. MVFR possible at HIE.
Tuesday night: IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE.
Wednesday: LEB and HIE gradually improve to MVFR as snow tapers off.
MVFR prevails at all other terminals.
Wednesday night: IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR
restrictions more likely at other terminals in light rain early but
could lower to IFR overnight as rain transitions to snow.
Thursday: IFR possibly lifts to MVFR at LEB and HIE. MVFR elsewhere
as light precipitation lingers.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Maine tonight and
tomorrow, bringing SCA conditions in northeasterly flow tonight
and Sunday. Winds shift to westerly late Sunday, and strengthen
to gales across the outer waters as the low deepens across the
Canadian Maritimes Sunday night.
The threat for gales tapers off by Monday afternoon, but SCA
conditions may continue through much of next week as the weather
pattern remains active.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
Sunday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-024>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
Sunday for NHZ006.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Sunday for NHZ005-007>011-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
Gale Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-
152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Hargrove
AVIATION...Clair/Hargrove
MARINE...Clair/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
