NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
334
FXUS61 KGYX 081922
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
222 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A new Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight as
temperatures again fall at or around zero with breeze bringing
wind chills into the teens to around 20 below zero.
Chances of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday have increased with
this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. While not as breezy as last night, it will again feel like
the teens and 20s below zero tonight across much of New
Hampshire and western Maine. Elevated locations will be more
exposed to wind overnight, while valley locations cool quickly
this evening under clear skies and calmer winds.
2. Light snow looking more likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The timing may be such that it impacts the evening commute on
Tuesday and the morning commute Wednesday.&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Another night of Cold Weather Advisories in store as frigid
airmass remains overhead. Wind magnitude and coverage will be
lesser tonight as a weak embedded shortwave cuts through the
forecast area and out to the Gulf of Maine. With clear skies
overhead, tonight`s cold will come in two flavors: wind chill or
well below zero temperatures.
Where wind isn`t as strong in valleys and locations south and
east of the foothills, radiational cooling will be possible.
Once winds slacken from daytime mixing, will look for isolated
locations to quickly decouple and temps to start falling. There
is some uncertainty how strong of an effect this will be given
925mb winds off the surface still well represented in cyclonic
flow. Hence the isolated nature of raw temperatures truly
falling off.
Given the spread of lighter winds amid the cool air mass, Cold
Weather Advisories should handle the expected teens to 20s below
zero apparent temperatures tonight. These will likely be met
late tonight and early Mon morning as winds pick back up due to
mixing.
Even though temperatures will rise into the mid 20s for points
outside of the mountains, renewed breeze will still make it feel
like the teens through the day Monday. For Monday night, high
pressure will be nearing overhead with much calmer winds and
clear skies. For this, brought in cooler temperatures in
anticipation of much better radiational cooling conditions.
However, overnight values should not reach criteria for cold
weather headlines.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Incremental change in modeling for the Tue night snowfall. That
change has been in the more likely direction, and NBM guidance
is now fairly widespread likely PoP. I did not see much reason
to deviate from that. Over the next couple of days we may still
see guidance wobble around regarding how far east the best lift
advances before getting undercut by the approaching shortwave.
For that reason I am hesitant to go all in with categorical in
any given location. "Snow likely" covers the messaging at this
time.
What we do know is that the mid level warm front will lift into
the forecast area Tue evening. Warm advection over that frontal
boundary will provide the lift thru a saturated snow growth
zone. Forecast soundings and ensemble QPF suggesting this is
largely a light snow event, but there may be occasional bursts
of moderate especially in the 7p to 1a window. As things stand
right now that means snow is beginning during the evening
commute and accumulations are likely on untreated surfaces.
Based on ensemble median QPF, the most likely solution (80
percent) is between 2 and 4 inches of snow in a swath thru much
of the forecast area. The 10th and 90th percentile amounts push
that to maybe 1 to 5 inches, so in this case the goalposts
really seem to have narrowed.
One aspect vthat has changed a bit is heading into Wed the
surface trof lingers over the forecast area. This is keeping
snow or snow showers going into the middle of Wed on some
guidance. So chance PoP is maintained for most of the day.
However any more detail on an inverted trof at this range is
going to be extremely likely to change in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday: VFR with some MVFR ceilings towards HIE.
There is some uncertainty on how much coverage these clouds
produce. There will be a lower jet of 40kt winds moving through
tonight, creating some LLWS for most interior terminals. LLWS
should slacken Mon morning as surface winds again pick up due to
mixing.
Outlook...
Monday Night: VFR with no sig wx.
Tuesday: IFR or lower conditions developing later in the day.
Tuesday Night: IFR or lower conditions in light snow.
Wednesday: Widespread IFR ending, but lingering local IFR or
lower possible in snow showers.
Wednesday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday: VFR conditions expected.
Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected.
Friday: VFR conditions expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions persist towards the Midcoast through this
evening, with most other coastal waters locations
underperforming on winds today. SCAs have been expanded with
some continued gusts 25 to 30 kts through tonight and Mon
morning. Freezing spray remains a hazard as well as long as
sufficient winds are in place.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish Tue and remain below SCA
thresholds. Towards the weekend conditions well outside the bays may
approach marginal SCA criteria, but largely expecting the majority
of the marine zones to stay below headline.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Monday for MEZ007-012-018-019-033.
NH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Monday for NHZ001>011-015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ150.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ151>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
