NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
326
FXUS61 KGYX 021830
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
130 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain below normal through at least Monday. Snow
showers will stay mainly in the mountains, but widespread light
snow is possible Monday night as a clipper moves through. High
temperatures remain in the 20s or colder through the upcoming
weekend. A warmup arrives by midweek next week as a ridge builds
across the Northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Below normal temps continue tonight but not quite as cold as
last night. The upper trof axis will cross the area this evening
and may be followed by a secondary trof overnight. This will
primarily keep the cold advection going and keep the breeze up
overnight. As a result wind chills are forecast to fall to 20 to
25 below in parts of the western Maine mtns again. A cold
weather advisory has been issued. There may also be a slight
uptick in upslope snow shower activity with the passing of each
shortwave, so I have added PoP and flurry wording to the
forecast beyond what the NBM guidance showed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
More below normal temps expected Sat and Sat night. High temps
Sat remain in the teens and 20s once again, but the winds will
be less gusty than the past two days. Aside from upslope snow
showers that will be winding down, the next best chance for
precip comes Sat night.
A passing southern stream shortwave trof will remain well south
of the area, but there is a trailing northern stream shortwave
that will be robust enough for broad lift across the region.
While it will generally be more moisture starved because of the
southern partner, there could be some light snow across southern
parts of the forecast area especially. At this time I am
anticipating around an inch or less.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) High Astrotides could bring minor coastal flooding.
(see Coastal Flooding section for more details)
2) Average to below average temperatures this weekend.
3) Light snow likely Monday night.
4) Warming trend likely to arrive by mid-next week.
A 500mb trough will engulf the northeast on Sunday, bringing
continued cold and dry conditions through the remainder of the
weekend. Sunday night will feature light winds and clear skies,
allowing for radiational cooling to develop. This could allow
lows to bottom out to near or below 0F across northern New
England. A weak clipper moves in Monday night, likely bringing
some light snow to the area. A pattern flip occurs afterwards,
with mid- level ridging starting to build in on Tuesday. This
will allow for a warming trend through next week. Highs in the
lower 40s are possible by the end of next week, with no signs of
a pattern change beyond this.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Generally VFR conditions anticipated thru Sat
night. Some gust westerly winds possible thru this afternoon, up
to 25 kt at times. Upslope snow showers remain possible and
local MVFR or lower conditions may result. This is unlikely to
affect any TAF sites, but HIE would be the most likely. There
is a low confidence chance of light snow Sat night with a
passing system. Snow would be most likely over the southern half
of the forecast area, and some areas of IFR or lower conditions
would be possible if that occurs.
Long Term...No restrictions to aviation are expected until
Monday evening. Some light snow Monday night may allow for some
brief periods of lowered restrictions. VFR is expected Tuesday,
though lower restrictions may arrive for the second half of next
week as a system may move through the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...No restrictions to aviation are expected until
Monday evening. Some light snow Monday night may allow for some
brief periods of lowered restrictions. VFR is expected Tuesday,
though lower restrictions may arrive for the second half of next
week as a system may move through the area.
Long Term...Northwesterly winds strengthen to SCA thresholds by
Sunday night as a weak clipper moves through the region.
Conditions will improve and go below SCA thresholds by Monday
morning. The rest of next week features 8-12kt southerly winds.
Seas of 2-4ft are expected Sunday through Wednesday. Seas may
increase at the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to tick upwards as we approach the
full moon. Currently there is little surge along the coast with
winds largely offshore and continuing that way thru Sat. However
tides will be increasing to over 11 ft without surge and I do
anticipate that as offshore winds relax that water levels may
slosh back towards the coast a bit. Guidance seemed overly high
on the surge threat, especially by Sun at over 1 ft. The ETSS
guidance looked like a fair compromise, closer to 0.5 to 0.75
ft. The result is near flood stage during the morning high tide
Sat, and bumping just up to flood stage Sun. It is possible that
coastal flood advisories may be needed by the time Sun rolls
around.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
Saturday for MEZ008-009.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...Legro/Palmer
MARINE...Legro/Palmer
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
