NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
343
FXUS61 KGYX 062329
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
729 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Models are coming into closer agreement with winter weather
across northern New England tomorrow. Increased snowfall amounts
to accommodate these changes, and Tuesday evening`s commute
could be slick in southern NH.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A weak system brings measurable snowfall and perhaps a snow
squall to the area on Tuesday.
2. Starting Wednesday, it will mainly be dry through the rest of the
work week with a warming trend expected into the weekend. The next
widespread chance for precipitation comes Friday night into
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A late season Alberta Clipper moves in from the northwest. This
clipper in particular is unique - it looks to have more convective
characteristics. Usually earlier in the winter, Alberta Clippers
tend to be more stratiform in nature. This difference will be
crucial as it moves across New England. The low looks to undergo
secondary cyclogenesis as it passes over Vermont and New Hampshire.
This will do two things: First, it will allow for colder, below
freezing air to remain over the thermal column with most
precipitation likely staying snow over the area. Secondly, it will
redevelop over the Gulf of Maine, keeping its more dominant slug of
precipitation out of northern New England.
So while this transition is occuring, some pockets of sunshine
may poke out across locations south of the mountains. This
should create some modest wintertime low-level instability,
creating the opportunity for snow squalls early Tuesday evening.
Snow squalls may cause slick travel across southern NH during
the Tuesday evening commute. Snow squalls will start to fall
apart with sunset and some snow showers may not even make it to
the coast. Skies will be quick to clear up after the snow tapers
off.
Within these couple rounds of snow squalls, I am expecting about 1-2
inches of snow, mostly accumulating on grassy surfaces. A localized
total or two of 3 inches of snow can`t be ruled out across the
southern 2/3rds of New Hampshire, especially if squalls track over
the same areas.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure and upper ridging dominates the weather pattern
Wednesday before the next longwave trough starts to approach the
region and we transition back into southwest flow aloft to end the
work week. While specifics are still unclear this far out, it looks
like we will see the next chances for widespread (but low impact)
precipitation Friday night into Saturday. Most guidance then has us
drying out on Sunday before the next precipitation chances arrive
for the beginning of the next work week.
The warmup begins in earnest on Wednesday with highs in the upper
30s and lower 40s north, to the low to mid 40s across
coastal/interior Maine, and to the mid to upper 40s over southern
New Hampshire. Afternoon dewpoints are also likely to mix out fairly
well on Wednesday so we will end up fairly dry with widespread
minimum relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range. The
driest conditions will generally be over portions of central and
southern New Hampshire. The one good thing is that winds will be
fairly light. By Friday highs are forecast to range from the mid 50s
north, to 60s south. While NBM spread increases into next week, it
does appear that above to well above normal temperatures should
generally stick around.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions forecast thru tonight. CIGs begin to lower in the
morning and are most likely to drop to MVFR across the southern
half of the forecast area. Where exactly it snows hard enough to
reduce VIS to IFR or lower is a little harder to pin down, but
at this time southern NH into southwestern Maine is most likely.
MVFR CIGs are expected thru most of the day Tue before
improving.
Wednesday-Friday: VFR prevails for much of the week as we enter a
period of quiet weather. HIE may begin to see MVFR become more
prevalent for Friday.
Friday night: May see some expansion of MVFR ceilings outside of the
mountains as rain approaches the area.
Saturday: IFR/MVFR possible under precipitation in the morning
with conditions improving through the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Westerly sub-SCA winds and 3-5ft seas look to continue this
afternoon. A low quickly moving across the Gulf of Maine on
Tuesday will allow for more variable sub-SCA level winds. Winds
then shift to northwesterlies Tuesday night. Seas of 2-4ft are
expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
By Thursday, high pressure begins to pull away and a tightening
pressure gradient will see wind gusts 25-30 knots and seas 6-8
feet make a brief return. Wind gusts relax on Friday, but seas
could stay elevated as low pressure returns to the region and a
front crosses the waters on Saturday. Sub-SCA conditions should
return Sunday as high pressure moves back over the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer
AVIATION...Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
