NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
850
FXUS61 KGYX 091820
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
220 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous with a
warm day ahead on Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. The warming trend continues into Friday.
2. A cold front will bring a chance of showers late Friday into
Friday night.
3. After a modest cool down on Saturday, even warmer temperatures are
possible early next week along with periodic chances for rain
showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
What you see is what you get for the rest of the day as mostly
sunny, dry, and breezy conditions will continue. Winds ease this
evening and tonight as we lose daytime mixing, but the
southerly flow will keep temperatures milder tonight with lows
ranging from the 30s to lower 40s. A weak disturbance may bring
a couple of showers near or just north of the mountains this
evening or tonight, but given how dry it currently is, I haven`t
put this low chance in the forecast. Similarly, some guidance
is hinting at marine fog or stratus potentially moving into the
Midcoast, but I`m not seeing any evidence of this on satellite
as of yet. So I think this potential is pretty low, but not
zero.
Warm air advection remains in place on Friday ahead of a cold front,
and even warmer temperatures are expected. Mixing close to 850mb
should bring high temperatures well into the 50s and 60s for most of
northern New England, and portions of southern NH may see low 70s
with models bringing in 850mb temps close to +8C. The cooler area
will be along and just inland from the coast, roughly from Portland
eastward, where the onshore flow should keep temps in the mid 40s to
low 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Chances for rain showers increase later in the afternoon or early
evening on Friday across northern areas as the front
approaches, and these will expand to the south and east the rest
of the evening into Friday night along with the front. Highest
chances and amounts look to be in and around the mountains with
0.10" to 0.25" of rain possible, while chances and rainfall
amounts look to generally decrease farther south. Parts of
southern NH and SW ME could get less than 0.10" out of this
system. Precip likely comes to an end prior to sunrise on
Saturday as drier air moves in behind the front. Winds will also
become gusty out of the W-NW and up to 25 to 30 mph based on
forecast soundings.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Upper level trough and cold front start to move out on Saturday
morning with some lingering low chances for showers early in the
vicinity of the Midcoast of Maine and in the mountains. These
showers could stick around through the rest morning over the
mountains in cyclonic flow aloft. The pressure gradient will also be
tightening behind the departing front so northwest winds will become
fairly breezy Saturday afternoon with widespread gusts possible in
the 25 to 35 mph range. We will also dry out again in the afternoon
with dewpoints mixing out mainly in the low to mid 20s which will
lead to minimum humidity values ranging from 30 to 40 percent across
much of the southern half of New Hampshire, the Foothills/Interior
of Maine, and along the coast. We could see a few readings in the
upper 20s over far southern New Hampshire.
Highs will still be above normal on Saturday but a bit cooler than
Friday behind the front. Highs will mainly range from the upper 30s
and lower 40s north, to the 50s south. The next warmup then starts
on Sunday with forecast highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s to the
mid/upper 50s. NBM forecast spread then increases quite a bit
regarding temperatures Monday through Wednesday. As an example, by
Wednesday the 25th to 75th NBM percentiles for highs range from 56
to 72 respectively at Gray. Thus, confidence is quite high that we
will generally remain well above normal for the first half the work
week but it remains unclear just how warm we will get. The main
driver of this uncertainty appears directly related to how cloud
cover and precipitation chances evolve as the next series of waves
approach Sunday night through at least Wednesday. While widespread
highs in the 60s seem reasonable in the Monday-Wednesday time-frame,
the chances for 70s are a bit more uncertain (but not out of the
question).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR. Still could see marine stratus or
fog move into RKD late tonight into Friday, but confidence is low.
Gusty south winds will ease this evening and tonight.
Outlook:
Rest of Friday-Friday night...A cold front brings a chance of rain
showers and MVFR to IFR restrictions. Higher potential for these
restrictions will be at HIE, LEB, AUG, and RKD. Winds shift to W and
NW behind the front, probably after 06Z/11, and could gust to around
25 kt. There should also be an improving trend to VFR with most
showers ending prior to 12Z.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR expected. NW gusts up to 35 kts across the
interior Saturday.
Monday and Tuesday: Restrictions possible due to showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly wind gusts are expected to approach or even exceed 25 kt
for a brief period this evening into the early part of tonight,
so have issued a Small Craft Advisory to account for this, but
these will diminish to closer to 20 kt overnight. South winds
continue on Friday as a cold front approaches and may again
reach SCA levels in the afternoon and evening. Winds veer
southwesterly Friday night and then W-WNW toward daybreak
Saturday night behind the front. There may also be marine fog
and stratus late tonight and into Friday well out ahead of the
front.
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters Saturday
through Sunday. Seas look to be around 2-5ft with SCA issuance
unlikely during this period. By Monday morning, southerly winds
pick up to near Gale Force, with seas rising to 5-7ft.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
for ANZ150-152>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Combs/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
