NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
681
FXUS61 KGYX 140053
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
853 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track with just some minor adjustments made
to QPF/snowfall, with forecast amounts lowered some in most
locations.
Precipitation onset continues to slow down a bit for the rain
storm early next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Snow likely tonight into Saturday with light to moderate
accumulations. After the low exits the region, westerly winds pick
up Saturday afternoon.
2. A stronger low pressure system appears likely to bring some
locally heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the forecast area
early next week. Some flooding is possible as ice jams loosen
and the remaining snowpack melts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A strong clipper system moves across the northeastern US
tonight, with the snow moving through the region in two big
pushes. The first wave of snow moves across the area overnight
tonight. Low-level frontogenesis within the wave of snow may
allow for periods of heavy snow to develop across the interior.
Snow will be heavier and wet further to the south and a little
drier in the north. The aforementioned wave of snow moves
through quickly, with skies trying to clear out by Saturday
morning. A brief dry period follows and then another hit of snow
moves across the mountains Saturday afternoon. Snow covered
roads are likely Saturday morning and mountain passes like
Franconia Notch and the Kancamangus Pass could be slick.
For snow totals, 3-6 inches are forecast across the interior, with
lesser amounts along the coast and southern New Hampshire. Upslope
enhancement will allow for higher snow totals in the higher
elevations in the White Mountains and the Rangeley Lakes region.
Right behind the aforementioned system, a pressure gradient will
pick up and will allow for winds to strengthen. Westerly winds could
be gusty across southern and western New Hampshire, as the best
mixing appears to be across these regions. High pressure moving
overhead Saturday evening will allow for winds to weaken overnight.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Modest upper-level ridging will cross the forecast area on
Sunday, but we will transition back into southwest flow aloft by
Sunday night as the next longwave trough starts to approach.
Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the low to mid 30s north, to
the low to mid 40s south.
Strong low-level warm air advection and a long southeasterly fetch
will pump plenty of moisture into the region ahead of a deepening
low as a warm front lifts north. Compared with yesterday`s guidance,
the system has slowed a little bit and the widespread precipitation
is now expected to begin Monday morning. The one exception could be
some light snow along the international border Sunday night.
Elsewhere, precipitation could begin as a wintry mix before changing
over to all rain through Monday night. As of now, it appears that
the heaviest rain will fall Monday evening and night. The NAEFS and
ECMWF ensemble continue to suggest that PWATs, IVT, and low-level
specific humidity will all be near the climatological max for this
time of year (95th percentile or higher), so the threat for locally
heavy rain remains a concern. The progressive nature of this system
should keep the totals mitigated somewhat even with the anamolous
moisture in the forecast but we will likely see general totals in
the one to two inch range with some locally higher amounts. Rain
should quickly diminish Tuesday morning, likely vacating the
forecast area completely by early to mid afternoon, although there
could be some lingering light snow showers in and around the
mountains. For more on the flooding and hydrology threat, please see
the hydrology section below.
Strong southeasterly winds also remain a concern for the early week
system with an anamolous low-level jet expected to ramp up Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Forecast wind speeds at the 700mb
and 850mb levels continue to lean towards the 99th percentile
or greater over much of the area in the NAEFS and ECMWF
ensemble. The question will be how much of this air can mix down
to the surface, especially after it takes the long journey over
the cold ocean waters. Widespread gusts in the 40 to 45 mph
range seem reasonable but a few readings up to 50 mph aren`t out
of the question. Thus, there could be at least be some power
outage threat.
The cold front moves through on Tuesday morning, which will lead to
some cooler high temperatures on Wednesday with values struggling to
get out of the 20s north or the 30s south. After Wednesday, highs
should then rebound towards seasonal averages for the rest of
the work week. A weak wave towards the end of the week could
bring the next chance of light precipitation to the area
starting Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday: Conditions will deteriorate overnight to
IFR as SN overspreads the TAF sites. Ceilings and visibility
will then begin to improve between 09Z-13Z Saturday with VFR
conditions returning. The exception may be at KHIE where clouds
and periods of -RASN will likely persist at times. A few widely
scattered rain/snow showers are possible during the afternoon
elsewhere, potentially bringing brief restrictions. W winds will
prevail with gusts up to 25 kts.
Outlook:
Saturday night: VFR likely returns to all terminals, except HIE
which may hold MVFR ceilings in upslope flow.
Sunday: VFR, no sig wx. Clouds thicken and lower in afternoon.
Sunday night and Monday: MVFR to IFR cigs with any wintry mix
transitioning to rain Monday morning. Rain and gusty southeast winds
likely Monday.
Monday night: IFR likely continues with periods of rain and breezy
conditions.
Tuesday: Conditions gradually improve to MVFR/VFR through the
day.
Tuesday night and Wednesday: VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Southeasterly winds will pick up to SCA levels overnight. SCA
winds continue on Saturday but will shift to westerlies at
daybreak. Westerly winds continue through the remainder of
Saturday evening, with a few gale force gusts possible over the
open waters.
High pressure crosses the waters Saturday night and Sunday.
Southeasterly gales are then likely by late Sunday night and Monday
as a strong low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes.
Winds and seas will remain elevated through at least midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River ice across the region will need to be monitored over the
coming week. Ice weakened by the recent thaw could still exhibit
some breaking and moving over the weekend despite temperatures
generally below freezing. However the main focus will be early next
week when an anomalously moist system bring periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the region. PWATs are looking around 1.25",
putting it in the 95th percentile or possibly a new max. The event
total rainfall is likely be around 1-2", but can`t rule out locally
higher amounts to 3 inches if the system drags out any longer.
Fortunately the window for snowmelt in the mountains is expected to
be brief, but any lingering snow in the valleys and points southward
will likely melt-out. The overall snowmelt contribution will be ~0.5-
1". Given frozen ground, much of this will be pure runoff around 1
to 3 inches. Despite recent snowmelt, much of the overland storage
remains available due to the drought. The total runoff reaching the
rivers will be sufficient to raise many streams and river to near/at
bankfull. Minor flooding is possible if rainfall exceeds apprx 2
inches. Remaining river ice will be the wildcard for significant
flooding. The river rises are expected to be fast late Monday into
Monday night, which will increase the chance for ice jam flooding.
Ice jams are well known spring flood triggers, and are generally
unpredictable on when or where they will develop. Reports from
officials indicate a lot of ice rotted or at least weakened
significantly following the recent thaw, reducing the ice jam risk
for many rivers. However, it only takes ice 4" thick to support a
strong jam. Interests along vulnerable river locations should be on
guard and use this time to prepare and monitor conditions. It is
expected that most of the areas river ice will blow out with this
event.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ007>009-
012>014-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for
MEZ020>022-026>028.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NHZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ005-
006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ152-154.
Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night
for ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Palmer/Hargrove
AVIATION...Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
