NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
796
FXUS61 KGYX 011125
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Low temperatures this morning are colder than previously
expected. Otherwise, little change since the previous forecast
cycle.
6am Update...Pivoting focus to the forthcoming tide cycles that
will bring coastal water levels into Action stage this morning,
this evening, and Monday morning. Monday`s tide remains the
highest forecast, nearing minor flood stage.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Minor coastal flooding remains possible, especially during
the Monday morning high tide cycle.
2. Temperatures will warm back closer to normal through mid
next week with colder readings returning by the weekend. A
couple of weak clipper systems will bring periodic chances of
light snow mid to late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High astronomical tides combined with between 1.5-2.0 ft of
storm surge from distant low pressure over the open North
Atlantic will bring total water levels to near minor flood stage
both this morning and especially Monday morning.
Northeast flow parallel to the coast are a favorable direction
to help build water along the coast via the Ekman Spiral. This
flow continues for much of the day today, with a gradual turn
north by this evening as low pressure passes outside the Gulf of
Maine. Following Gerling-Hanson plots from coastal buoys, this
morning`s tide will arrive before long period swell from the
passing low. However, the evening astro tides won`t be as high.
Monday morning`s tide has been modeled as the closest to Minor
stage for a number of locations, mainly Portland south along
the NH Seacoast. A larger astro tide plus remaining swell and
surge will aid in water levels again rising into Action stage
with Hampton and Portland both forecast to achieve Minor flood
stage. Fly in the ointment will be continuing offshore winds
that will aid in knocking down waves, but they will be lighter
than Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface will lead
to high temperatures returning to right around normal for this
time of year by Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday,
we then transition back into southwest flow aloft as the next
shortwave trough/upper low approaches. This wave will lead to
some isolated/scattered light snow showers during the day on
Wednesday with the best chances in the mountains and vicinity.
Highs on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday but maybe a bit
cooler in the mountains and valleys under plenty of cloud cover.
Persistent troughing will then lead to more chances of light
snow and slightly below normal temperatures through the rest of
the week and into the weekend. While it`s still a ways out, it
appears the next best chance for some widespread light snow will
be Friday or Saturday, after which we will also trend back
towards colder temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday: Mainly VFR conditions with perhaps some
MVFR cigs at KHIE and KLEB through this morning. Ceilings just
offshore will go MVFR to IFR tonight into Sunday morning, and
have noted some FEW/SCT in coastal terminals in proximity. N
winds will increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts and
will remain elevated through tonight.
Outlook:
Monday: VFR conditions with NW winds between 5-15 kts, gusts to
25 kts.
Monday night: VFR expected.
Tuesday/Tuesday night: VFR expected.
Wednesday/Wednesday night: MVFR possible north, VFR more likely
elsewhere. Snow showers possible.
Thursday: VFR expected south, MVFR more likely north. Snow showers
possible in the mountains and vicinity.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale force northerly winds expected today through Monday
morning with gusts up to 45 kts and seas of 7-10 ft outside of
the bays/harbors. Moderate freezing spray is also likely through
Sunday afternoon.
Seas will remain elevated through Monday night outside of the bays
at 4-9 ft. Winds and seas will then largely remain below SCA
criteria through the remainder of the period.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ150>154.
Gale Warning from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Hargrove/Tubbs
AVIATION...Cornwell/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
