NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
834
FXUS61 KGYX 171044
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
544 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
5:40am Update... Forecast has been updated to tighten the
rain/snow closer to the coast for this afternoon as a slightly
cooler solution looks to be evolving for today`s system.
Snowfall amounts have increased slightly which has resulted in
expanding the Winter Weather Advisory northeastward through
central New Hampshire.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A wave of light snow overspreads the area from the southwest
through daybreak. There may be a brief lull in spots this morning
before more widespread snow develops mid morning through the afternoon.
Slick travel is expected across much of the area with widespread
1-3 inches with 3-5 inches within areas under a Winter Advisory.
Plan for added travel time if transiting interior locations, especially
to/from the mountains.
2. The potential for a coastal storm remains possible late
Sunday into Monday. Confidence continues to be lower than
normal due to a large portion of NWP members being out to sea.
3. Below normal temperatures are likely from Tuesday onward next
week as a series of Arctic air masses descend upon the Northeast.
Several nights of sub-zero ambient or wind chill temperatures
are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad trough dropping
southeast across the Great Lakes with embedded short waves
ejecting towards the Northeast. The first wave will result in
light snow overspreading the area through day break that will
result in a coating to an inch or two of snow mainly across
southern and central NH and southwest Maine. Latest hi res
guidance suggest that there may be a lull in snowfall after day
break.
Better forcing for ascent will overspread the area from mid
morning through the afternoon as the right entrance of jet
streak slides overhead. This upper forcing will coincide with
WAA and Fgen forcing in the lower levels resulting in the
potential for a band of moderate snow stretching from SW New
Hampshire through the southern White Mountains. The latest WPC
snowband tracker is highlighting this signal with the potential
for this snow band weakening as it translates into western
Maine. QPF and snowfall have increased slightly and have
expanded the Winter Weather Advisory northeastward based on
higher amounts and the location of where a band of moderate snow
may set up. Thermal profiles continue to show cold air aloft
while surfaces temperatures may creep above freezing at lower
elevations and into the mid 30s along the coast through the
lower Merrimack Valley. This will likely result in a notable
spread in snowfall amounts based on elevation, especially for
areas within the Advisory where the higher terrain may see
upwards of 6 inches and the lower CT Valley may be closer to 2
inches. Temperatures into the mid 30s across SE NH and coastal
Maine will lead to snow mixing with and changing to rain at
times that will keep amounts here around an inch. QPF drops off
north of the mountains which will also result in lower amounts
of 1-2 inches. Precipitation ends SW to NE late afternoon
through Saturday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
While there continues to be strong agreement that a coastal storm
will develop late Sunday into Monday morning, there remains
significant uncertainty on whether it will have impacts through
accumulating snowfall across our region. Latest deterministic and
ensemble based guidance continues to favor a near miss to our east
while the AI ECMWF/GFS are more amplified and show snow reaching the
region. On avg, around 20-30% of ensemble members show accumulating
snowfall while ~80% of AI members show snow accumulations. Much of
this difference seems to be due to uncertainty in the strength of
the approaching s/wv along with timing differences. Should the s/wv
be located to the NW of the parent low, then this could broaden the
precipitation shield and there are some hints it could result in an
inverted sfc trof. The greatest potential for a plowable snowfall
looks to be across coastal and southern areas with lower chances the
further north and west you are located. The WSSI continues to favor
minor impacts, which aligns with the general current consensus that
should this event impact portions of the region, the snowfall would
most likely be advisory level criteria at worst.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
There remains strong ensemble support for below avg temperatures
Tuesday through much of the remainder of the week and upcoming
weekend as trofing persists across the NE CONUS. A few s/wv trofs
may cross throughout the week with some snow potential towards the
end of the week. Highs will mostly be below freezing with lows into
the single digits and teens.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...West winds continue to subside with VFR
through at least 09Z. Cigs thicken and lower into daybreak.
MVFR cigs begin for NH terminals 09z to 12z, with SHSN or light
SN reducing vis. Vis may continue to lower to IFR as snow moves
across central/northern NH terminals and into ME by mid
morning. SE NH terminals (MHT/PSM) may transition to RASN or RA
for better vis. Can`t rule out some RA also mixing in at PWM/RKD
and other terminals along immediate coast. Precipitation ends
between 21Z and 00Z while IFR cigs may linger along the coast
and KAUG into Saturday night.
Outlook:
Saturday Night: Cigs lift with VFR likely prevailing into Sunday
morning.
Sunday: VFR north while clouds increasing from the south bring
MVFR near the coast.
Sunday Night: Potential for MVFR or worse restrictions in possible
SN. Forecast confidence is low.
Monday: Any lingering SN will end early morning with VFR conditions
improving to VFR as NW flow increases.
Monday Night: VFR prevails at all terminals. West wind gusts 25
kt possible.
Tuesday/Wednesday: VFR prevails at all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue due to elevated wave heights. Low
pressure lifts north of the Great Lakes through today, bringing
a southerly wind shift and precipitation to the coastal waters.
SCA conditions likely continue through Saturday night with wave
heights on the coastal waters 4 to 6 ft.
An area of low pressure will form offshore of the Carolinas
Sunday and tracks northeastward. How close to the Gulf of Maine
this system tracks remains uncertain and may pass well southeast
of Cape Cod. This approaching system will bring increasing
northerly winds through Sunday. There will be the threat for
snow over the coastal waters and visibility may drop below 1
mile at times Sun night into Mon. Winds will gradually shift
around to westerly as storm pulls away and cold advection
begins. Gale force westerly winds possible Monday night-Tuesday
in the cold air advection with light freezing spray. SCA
conditions will likely linger through much of the remainder of
the week under CAA.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
NHZ005>009-011-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schroeter/Tubbs/Clair
AVIATION...Schroeter/Tubbs
MARINE...Schroeter/Tubbs
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
