NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
043
FXUS61 KGYX 251947
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
247 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow is advancing northward a little quicker than previously
expected and therefore changed the start time of the winter
storm warning in most of western ME to 20Z (3 PM).
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major winter storm will bring significant snowfall to the
region tonight through Monday evening. Widespread double digit
snowfall is expected with localized amounts nearing 2 feet
possible across portions of coastal SW ME and SE NH. This will
result in significant travel impacts.
2. Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday through the end
of the work week. No significant precipitation is expected, but
an upper low will lead to periodic low chances for light snow
showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
As of 18Z Sun sfc low pressure (~1010 hpa) is located offshore
of the Delmarva with an H5 positively tilted trof axis over the
Upper Midwest. Northeast radar mosaic shows a precipitation
shield stretching from Mid-Atlantic northward towards southern
NH. ASOS/AWOS reports upstream indicate moderate to heavy
snowfall now occurring across much of southern New England and
entering southern NH with lighter snow now developing further to
the north. This area of low pressure will continue to move
northeastward before arriving near Cape Cod around 12Z Mon and
in doing so, will spread widespread snowfall across our local
region.
Latest forecast guidance continues to indicate that a region of
strong H7 FGEN forcing will move across the area from southwest
to northeast this evening before exiting to our east early Mon
morning. This strong forcing for ascent combined with a
saturated DGZ will result in increasing snowfall rates with the
latest WPC snowband probability tracker (SPT) showing peak rates
between 1-3"/hr likely. The time window of greatest concern for
these high snowfall rates will be generally between 4 PM to 4
AM with coastal and southern locations the most likely to
experience these snowfall rates. This will result in rapidly
deteriorating travel conditions along with poor visibility.
Further to the north, snowfall rates of generally 0.5-1.0"/hr
are likely.
Snowfall by around dawn on Mon is expected to range between
generally 12-18" south of the mtns with locally higher amounts
likely towards coastal SW ME and SE NH. Some drier air is then
likely to move in aloft later Mon morning, with decreasing
snowfall rates. This will then be followed by another period of
light to moderate snowfall Mon afternoon and evening as forcing
for ascent increases again from the trof axis that will be
arriving from the west. An additional couple of inches of snow
is expected through the day Mon into Mon evening. Snow will then
taper off from west to east laster Mon evening and night. Total
snowfall of 12-18" is likely for most locations south of the
mtns with amounts potentially nearing 2 ft, especially towards
coastal SW ME and SE NH. Lesser amounts of snow are expected
towards the Canadian border with 6-12" expected. Another thing
to mention is that winds will increase some tonight through Mon
night with gusts up to 25-30 mph. While not strong enough for
power outage concerns, it will likely result in blowing and
drifting snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Behind the exiting shortwave, we will see progressive upper
level ridging moving across the region on Tuesday. Ridging will
be short- lived, however, as a stubborn upper low meanders
around the Ontario/Quebec/Maine region. This low will
periodically rotate weak shortwaves into the northeast CONUS
through the end of the week before it finally starts to move out
of the area by the weekend. While no significant precipitation
is anticipated in the long term, the general unsettled pattern
will lead to plenty of cloud cover and periodic chances of light
snow showers, especially in the mountains.
The stubborn low will also keep letting the arctic air filter in so
we should remain chilly through the work week with highs mainly
ranging from the upper single digits and lower teens north, to the
upper teens and lower 20s south. Ensemble guidance does suggest we
may start a gradual warming trend on Saturday. While it is still
seven days out, NBM high temperature spread is generally small so
there maybe a bit more confidence than usual this far out for a
modest warmup. However, spread is still rather large for lows
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday mornings. Even with some more
uncertainty regarding the lows, the coldest mornings of the long
term are likely to be Thursday and Friday mornings when the NBM is
suggesting lows ranging from near 10 below zero to around zero.
Widespread wind chills in the double digits below zero are also
possible each morning.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread SN will result in IFR-LIFR restrictions through Mon
evening. Periods of +SN are expected, especially at KMHT, KCON,
KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD with vis down to 1/4SM or less. NE wind
gusts of 20-25 kts will develop this evening before becoming N
on Mon. SN will gradually end from W-E Mon evening and night
with gradual improvements expected in flight restrictions.
Outlook:
Tuesday Through Friday: Mostly VFR with no sig wx. W or NW winds 15
to 20 kts. MVFR ceilings with periodic light snow showers remain
possible NW of the Whites.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale force NE winds are expected late tonight through Mon
afternoon outside of the bays with gusts up to around 40 kts and
seas of 6-12 ft. Across the bays, SCA level winds are expected
with gusts up to 30 kts and seas of 2-5 ft. Light freezing spray
is also possible along with low vis due to snow. SCA to near gale
force N-NW winds will then persist Mon night into Tues.
Winds and seas should lower to SCA levels by the end of the day
Tuesday, with 3-6ft seas expected Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, expect winds and seas to go back and
forth between normal and SCA conditions.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ007-012-
019>021-024>028-033.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Tuesday for MEZ008-009-013-014-022.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ018-023.
NH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ151-
153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Tubbs/Hargrove
AVIATION...Tubbs/Hargrove
MARINE...Tubbs/Hargrove
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
