NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
232
FXUS61 KGYX 060625
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
125 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Ice amounts have trended upward slightly for tonight and
Saturday, with freezing drizzle likely overnight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Wintry precipitation, mainly snow, will continue through daybreak
across south-central New Hampshire and southwest Maine. This will
likely bring difficult travel through the early morning with
precipitation tapering off around the morning commute.
2. Damp weather expected tonight-Saturday night with fog, rain
showers, and pockets of freezing drizzle.
3. Spring-like warmth arrives for real next week, but is short
to stay.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Stout high pressure over Atlantic Canada will continue to supply low
level cold air via northeast flow through this morning. A low
amplitude short wave over western NY will traverse the region
through daybreak providing forcing for ascent and moisture for
precipitation. Surface temperatures are below freezing across the
entire area and evaporative cooling has helped cool the column
resulting in snow being the dominant precipitation type. However,
the approaching short wave will continue warm air advection aloft
with recent observations showing an inverted mix line with snow
being reported south of stations reporting a wintry mix across south-
central NH. Incoming 00Z guidance continues to be steadfast in any
mix changing back to snow through the pre-dawn hours. Steady
precipitation will taper off NW to SE into the morning commute.
Snowfall amounts remain largely unchanged with 3-5 inches across
southern New Hampshire and amounts decreasing to the north. North of
a line from KLEB to KPWM little to no snow accumulation is
expected.
While forcing for ascent exits the area this morning, low level
moisture will linger into the afternoon. This will likely result
in fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle along and south of the
foothills of far western Maine and south of the White Mountains
in New Hampshire. Temperatures will be marginal withing a couple
degrees of freezing so will have to watch trends for any impacts
during the afternoon and evening commute from freezing drizzle.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
After tonight`s system exits the region, we remain in southwest
flow ahead of a deeper trough moving out of the Midwest. A
plume of anomalously mild 850 mb temperatures (+20C from
climatology) crests over the region Saturday-Saturday night.
However, with the cold air dam holding firm, the mild
temperatures aloft will not be realized at the surface below a
steep low-level inversion. Given recent similar setups that have
verified on the cold side, still taking the under on
temperatures for Saturday from guidance. Temperatures will start
below freezing across most of the region Saturday morning, and
while we will see a moderating trend through the day, it is
likely most of the region will get stuck in the 30s-mid 40s.
Combined with pockets of fog, drizzle, and showers, it will be
quite a raw and damp day. For a rare instance, the White
Mountains and nearby higher elevations will actually be the
warmest spots, sitting above the surface cold layer.
Additionally, northwest of the Whites and through the
Connecticut River Valley stand the best chance to warm up during
the daytime with a downslope wind direction.
One thing to watch with such a setup will be the potential for
freezing drizzle/rain and widespread fog. The region most likely
for this will be across the ME Lakes Region and Kennebec Valley
where temperatures remain below freezing the longest, and
higher amounts of QPF will fall, but is possible further south
too. Could see a few heavier downpours across the northern half
of the region later Saturday as some marginal elevated
instability moves in.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Not much of a "cool down" behind Saturday night`s cold front.
Modest cold air advection, still warm 850 mb temperatures, clear
skies, and a downsloping west wind suggest the potential for a
mild day with temperatures pushing into the mid 50s in the warm
spots on Sunday.
As we head into next week, we will continue to see a warming
trend both aloft and at the surface. The current forecast
supports temperatures rising into the 50s daily Mon-Wed, with
Tuesday the current day favored to see the highest temperatures
of 2026 so far. 925 mb temperatures will be pushing 15C with 850
mb up to 11C on Tuesday. These values are generally between the
90th and 99th percentile for this time of year, suggesting
anomalously warm temperatures are likely. If deeper mixing can
occur with clear skies and a southwest wind, as currently
indicated on the latest guidance, portions of S NH could reach
into the 70s on Tuesday, which would at least contend for daily
record warmth at CON (72) and PWM (66).
As we head into midweek, the general idea is a trough will
swing through the region bringing a stronger cold front and
eventual end to the brief but anomalous warm spell. Confidence
breaks down substantially on the timing/amplitude of this
feature, but the broad idea is a rather sharp cool down will
occur sometime in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe with a chance
of rain.
One other impact of this warm spell will be focused on
hydrology. River rises are possible, and ice movement on rivers
and streams is anticipated south of the mountains. However,
given the low streamflow conditions (historically low in some
areas, including Oxford, ME and Windham, ME), there should be
more leeway than average before minor flooding conditions are
met.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings will be around MVFR thresholds from KLEB to KAUG to
KRKD. IFR to LIFR will remain likely at KMHT and KPSM and at
times KCON and KPWM in snow through 12Z. Steady precipitation
ends around 12Z to 14Z while ceilings will continue to lower
through the day. Some fog or drizzle/freezing drizzle will bring
potential for IFR to LIFR conditions across all sites except
KHIE through this afternoon.
Outlook:
Friday Night: Areas of IFR in low CIGs and patchy
drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Saturday: Areas of IFR in low CIGs and potential
drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Saturday Night: Reduced cig/vis favors the ME/NH coast with
some improvement for interior NH and far western ME. Drizzle and
some SHRA continues. LLWS possible into Sun AM.
Sunday: Widespread improvement to VFR as a cold front pushes
east. Vis may still be limited just offshore from coastal
terminals.
Sunday Night: Warm temperatures over melting snowpack may
produce ground fog that results in lowered visibility. Cigs
should be unlimited unless ground fog thickens.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR expected during the day, with night
time ground fog possible again.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast winds between high pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes and low pressure passing south of the Gulf of Maine
will continue SCA conditions through this afternoon. Winds drop
below SCA thresholds this evening while seas remain elevated
into tonight. Southwest flow freshens again on Saturday ahead of
a cold front. The front crosses early Sunday. SCA conditions are
possible in SW flow starting Saturday, and then possibly
continue through at least Tuesday due to seas, and southwest
flow resuming by Monday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NHZ011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barker/Clair/Schroeter
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
