NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
630
FXUS61 KGYX 060536
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
136 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly increased snowfall amounts Tuesday with fast moving
system, otherwise no significant forecast changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter is not ready to give up quite yet, with a fast
moving, light snowfall possible Tuesday.
2. A warming trend begins midweek with above normal
temperatures by the end of the work week. Then, the weekend
begins with widespread chances for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Cold front is ushering in some cooler and drier air for today
and Tue. Of course this time of year 10 degrees below normal is
still around 50 degrees for many areas. In the mtns however it
will be cold enough for periods of snow showers thru this
afternoon in upslope flow. The higher summits may end up with
several inches of accumulation by the time it winds down. The
feature to watch however is going to be the follow up shortwave
trof diving out of Manitoba Tue. That wave will provide the
forcing for ascent and the local area will already be underneath
some very cold air aloft. Ensemble guidance is cold at 850 mb,
but the anomalies get colder moving up thru 500 mb. The result
is forecast soundings featuring very steep lapse rates. This
will affect sensible weather in two ways. The first is that even
if surface temps are above freezing Tue afternoon, it will be
likely cool below freezing not very far off the surface. Any
precip falling is more likely to remain snow with a very shallow
near surface melting layer. The second is that steep lapse
rates may allow for some strong lift. So while lift may be
brief, it may also be intense and snowfall rates of an inch per
hour are entirely reasonable based on the forecast soundings I
am seeing. I do not anticipate much snow right now, but it may
be more like snow squalls in nature that may lead to a higher
impact, sub-advisory type event. There is reasonable confidence
in the precip type/amounts and timing Tue afternoon, but the
forecast is lower confidence in location. With a compact system
and model runs varying the best forcing between southern NH and
the lower Kennebec Valley I anticipate that some refining of
snowfall totals will be needed even into this evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Snow showers taper off Tuesday night and cold air begins
filling in behind the front. This will make for a cold
Wednesday morning with temperatures expected to drop into the
teens and low 20s. Strong high pressure than moves into the
region centering itself over the Gulf of Maine which will kick
start southwesterly flow at the surface. At the 500 mb level, as
troughing departs, and on the northern periphery of the high we
will see northwesterly flow continue, so while it will be
warmer temperatures are likely going to stay in the 40s.
Thursday is when we are going to see increased southerly flow
through the column which is going to push 850 mb temperatures to
around +1-3C, which should be good for 50s across much of the
area. Of course the caveat with surface southerly flow this time
of year is that the ocean is still very cold and the coastal
plain likely ends up staying in the 40s as a result. High
pressure pulls further away to the east Friday, but continued
southerly flow aloft warms 850 mb temperatures to +5-7C
resulting in temperatures in the 60s for most locations. With
weaker onshore flow the warm temperatures should make it right
down to the immediate coast, with the immediate coast having the
greatest chance to stay stunted in the low 50s. Friday night
also looks like it`s going to be one of the mildest nights we
have seen in a while with temperatures only dropping into the
40s.
A cold front begins to approach for Saturday which will bring
rain chances along with it. Models are still not in the best
agreement on timing. The Euro ensemble is pretty progressive
with it at the moment starting rain early on Saturday and having
it whip through in time to be done by dinner. The GEFS is a
little longer duration starting it at about the the same time,
but taking it into Saturday night. Models have come into
agreement with trailing high pressure ending up over the Great
Lakes Region, so even in the mountains this should be a rain
event. Lastly, models are in reasonable agreement that the
aforementioned high pressure moves into our area for Sunday
making for a drier day.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Largely VFR conditions expected, except in the mtns where MVFR
CIGs persist in upslope flow. Some local IFR conditions are
possible in snow showers north of the mtns including around HIE.
Westerly wind gusts around 25 kt possible thru this afternoon.
VFR conditions expected overnight.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Fast moving area of light snow moves thru parts of the
area Tue. Areas of IFR or lower possible during the day, mainly
south of the mtns.
Tuesday night: Snow showers exit the area returning any
terminals that saw restrictions back to VFR.
Wednesday-Friday: VFR prevails for much of the week as we enter
a period of quiet weather. HIE may begin to see MVFR become
more prevalent for Friday.
Friday night: May see some expansion of MVFR ceilings outside
of the mountains as rain approaches the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty offshore winds are forecast to continue thru much of the
day, especially outside of the bays. SCA conditions are expected
thru late afternoon before winds and seas gradually diminish.
While not likely, northeast winds Tue may be strong enough for a
few 25 kt gusts outside of the bays.
Should see some fairly tranquil conditions on the waters
through midweek as high pressure centers itself over the Gulf of
Maine. However, Thursday high pressure begins to pull away and
a tightening pressure gradient will see wind gusts 25-30 knots
and seas 6-8 feet make a brief return. Wind gusts relax on
Friday, but seas could stay elevated as low pressure returns to
the region and a front crosses the waters on Saturday. Sub-SCA
conditions should return Sunday as high pressure moves back over
the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ151-153.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baron/Legro
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
