NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
038
FXUS61 KGYX 210616
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
216 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little has changed for this forecast package as we turn our
focus to the Sunday/Sunday night system.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Widespread snow and rain event expected late tonight through
Sunday night with a plowable snow likely for much of the area,
especially away from far southern New Hampshire and the immediate
coast. There is some potential for lighter snow to linger into
Monday.
2. Active weather week continues For Tuesday and beyond with
multiple precipitation chances and temperatures at or a bit below
normal for late March.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Upper level troughing crosses the region this morning and then we
deamplify a little bit as we transition back into northwest flow
aloft by the late afternoon hours. After some lingering light rain
and/or snow this morning, most of your Saturday should be dry with
similar temperatures to yesterday and breezy northwest winds. Highs
are forecast to range from the low to mid 30s north, to the mid to
upper 40s south. A few lower 50s will be possible over southern New
Hampshire and far southwest Maine.
We transition to near zonal flow aloft Saturday night into Sunday as
the next weak wave approaches, riding a polar front. Isentropic
ascent will spread across the forecast area Sunday morning/afternoon
leading to widespread high chances of precipitation (70 to 90
percent) across all of New Hampshire and most of western Maine.
Various members of the global ensembles continue to suggest the
development of a secondary low along the front on Monday, but there
has been a trend where many of these members keep most of the
associated precipitation out over the waters. Either way, cyclonic
flow aloft will at least lead to lingering snow showers on Monday
and if a secondary low does form along the front, we could have
another push of moisture before it moves out to sea.
Precipitation should start out as all snow late tonight and into
Sunday morning but we will likely see a transition to a brief wintry
mix or just plain old rain across southern New Hampshire and coastal
Maine during the afternoon hours with everything changing back to
snow by late Sunday evening. Not much has changed regarding
potential totals. NBM 5.0 24-hour snow probabilities for 4 inches of
snow or greater generally range from 50 to 70 percent along and
north of the Foothills of Maine and central New Hampshire.
Increasing that threshold to 6 inches and we dip mainly into that 20
to 50 percent range with the larger percentages over the higher
peaks. Thus, confidence is fairly high that we will see a swath of
accumulation in the 3 to 6 inch range by Sunday night with some
locally higher amounts possible over the higher terrain.
Accumulations are a bit more uncertain south where we could mainly
see rain when precipitation is at the heaviest, but a slushy couple
of inches seems like a reasonable solution here. Given the potential
for slick travel and plowable snow, Winter Weather Advisories are
likely to be needed. If the secondary low develops along the front,
we could see even more snow on Monday so this period will bear close
watching.
Temperatures on Sunday will be around seasonable averages for this
time of year with highs in the low/mid 30s north, to the
mid/upper 40s across southern New Hampshire, and in the upper
30s/lower 40s over coastal Maine. Monday`s highs will be closer
to below average readings behind the front with highs in the
upper 20s and lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s south. A
few lower 40s will be possible over southern New Hampshire.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A mid-level trough will remain over
head next week, with high pressure moving in early in the week.
This should allow for below-normal lows, though sunnier skies
should keep high temperatures feeling warmer. On Wednesday, a
cold front looks to move southeastward across NH and Maine.
Instability ahead of the front could lead to the development of
snow squalls in the afternoon, especially in the mountains. Snow
squalls could lead to some slick mountain passes Wednesday
evening.
By the end of the week, ensembles are perhaps a little more
confident in a much broader low moving from west to east Thursday
night and into Friday. While models are more confident in the
existance of the system, models are less confident on precipitation
types. At this time, mostly snow appears to be more likely north of
the mountains, with rain, snow or wintry mix possible south of the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through tonight: While most of the steady precipitation has
moved out, expect widespread LIFR/IFR conditions to continue
under low ceilings and drizzle/fog early this morning. The one
exception may be over southern New Hampshire (CON and MHT) where
ceilings only dip into MVFR categories. Northwest winds will
bring drier air into the region later this morning, leading to
VFR conditions through the rest of the day and into tonight.
Outlook (Sunday through next week):
Sunday: IFR restrictions expected due to rain and snow.
Monday: VFR, though brief restrictions are possible with snow
showers.
Tuesday: VFR expected.
Wednesday: Brief periods of IFR possible in the afternoon,
mainly across the interior with snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds shift to out of the northwest this morning morning as a
low departs. Breezy winds and elevated seas will allow SCA
conditions to continue through this afternoon.
An active pattern is expected for Sunday through the coming
week, which will result in nearly continuous SCA conditions
through the week. There is a low probability for gale force wind
gusts in the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe depending on the
location and strength of developing low pressure over or just
east of the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer
MARINE...Hargrove/Palmer
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
