NWS Gray, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
313
FXUS61 KGYX 271826
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
126 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Icy precipitation will bring impacts to travel Sunday night and
Monday morning as a frontal system crosses the region. Depending
on how much ice accumulation locations see, some isolated power
outages are possible as winds get gusty in the wake of the
system. It then looks like light snow shower activity and
continued below normal temperatures are how we are going to
start the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will nose into the region tonight. With mostly
clear skies, light winds, and fresh snow that should allow temps
to fall quickly after dark. NBM guidance tends to underforecast
the degree of radiational cooling, so I opted to blend the 25th
percentile temps with MOS guidance to arrive at lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sun will be quiet as high pressure drifts eastward and allows
the next winter storm to approach from the west.
The trends have held with NWP continuing to show some weak
confluence over the Canadian Maritimes which will help to
reinforce at least a branching high pressure lobe north of the
forecast area. I continue to lean on colder guidance as the cold
air dam usually wins out locally. I have blended some of the
25th percentile NBM temps into our hourly forecast, especially
across southern NH and coastal areas where the mean NBM was
warming things too fast in my opinion.
Regardless of those changes there was still widespread freezing
rain before any warm up and changeover to straight rain. So I
have issued winter weather advisories for all zones. I have
segmented between southern NH and coastal zones where some
changeover to rain is more likely, and interior zones where
there could be more substantial icing. At this time the system
looks progressive enough and/or with enough dry slotting
locally that QPF is below 1 inch. That makes it hard to get to
0.75 inches flat ice for a true ice storm, but I could see some
localized amounts near 0.5 inches. I would not rule out perhaps
an upgrade to a winter storm warning for heavier amounts of ice
combined with some light snow and sleet.
So travel Mon looks hazardous, especially in the morning. By Mon
evening precip will be coming to an end.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Overview:
A potent upper low passes to our north Monday night and
Tuesday. After that we are left under a broad trough which will
help keep showers in the forecast through the end of the long
term period, especially in the mountains. Models are starting to
suggest a shortwave rotating through the broader trough
Thursday night into Friday which may help to force more
widespread snow showers, but uncertainty at that range is high.
Impacts and Key Messages:
* Gusty winds Monday night and Tuesday may pose an isolated
power outage threat depending on how much ice accumulation
locations see.
Details: Monday Night: Precipitation tapers off Monday night as
surface low pressure makes its departure. In the wake of this
system, we will end up on the outer fringes of a low level jet
rounding the base of a potent upper low centered just to our
north. Ensemble means suggest winds over our heads in the 35-40
kt range, with Bufkit profiles suggesting decent enough mixing
to get gusts 25- 35 mph to the surface. These higher end gusts
look most likely south of the mountains, with areas to the north
even more on the fringes of the jet and more likely to see the
lower end of the range. Regardless, any locations that end up
with decent ice accumulations may see an isolated power outage
threat as branches feel some of the extra weight. Ice
accumulations are not expected to impact power lines directly.
Low temperatures fall into the upper teens and low 20s south of
the mountains, and into the low to mid-teens north.
Tuesday and New Year`s Eve: Gusty winds continue through the
day Tuesday. High temperatures should be able to rise into the
mid- to upper 20s south of the mountains (upper teens and low
20s north), but windchills will be more in the upper single
digits to low teens (single digits below zero north). Skies
further clear Tuesday night, but breezy winds will keep most
locations from decoupling. The result is still a very cold night
with low temperatures dropping into the single digits across
much of the area and windchills below zero from the foothills
northward. New Year`s Eve looks mostly dry during the daylight
hours with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 20s in the
south, and into the upper teens and low 20s in the north.
However, it still looks a bit breezy so expect for it to feel a
little colder. You are going to want to bundle up for any New
Year`s Eve activities as windchills look to end up in the single
digits and low teens for most locations. A weak shortwave
trough rotating through may also bring some festive flakes for
the countdown.
New Year`s Day-Saturday: We start the New Year off on the
cloudier side as a broad trough remains over the eastern United
States, with our area being closest to the center of the upper
low. Global models are beginning to suggest a stronger shortwave
rotates through the broader trough late Thursday which may kick
us off with some snow showers as well. This will depend on
placement of a surface low, which unsurprisingly is uncertain at
this time range, but is something to keep an eye on. We may get
into more zonal flow for the first part of next weekend which
would give us a break from showers, but continue our stretch of
below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru Sun
evening. Precip quickly overspreads the area overnight and areas
of IFR will likely develop as warm air rides over the colder
near surface. In addition to the low CIGs some patchy fog is
possible near the coast, especially where dewpoints can climb
towards 40 degrees over the snowpack. During much of Mon near
the coast there may be periods of LLWS, with light northerly
surface winds and south to southwest flow at 2000 ft. Late Mon
afternoon may see some improvement in flight categories as winds
turn westerly and allow the low clouds to scatter out.
Long Term...Conditions improve overnight Monday as
precipitation begins to taper off and most terminals should be
back to VFR by daybreak on Tuesday. As precipitation comes to an
end, winds will ramp up with westerly gusts reaching 25-30 kts
through the day Tuesday. Wind gusts die down Tuesday night with
VFR prevailing through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds until Sun night. Once the warm front crosses the
coastal waters southerly winds will begin to increase. Outside
of the bays some 25 kt gusts are possible and an SCA is
possible, though westerly gales will be right on the doorstep
for Mon night.
Long Term...Westerly wind gusts may ramp up to gale force
overnight Monday in the wake of a frontal system. These gusts
look to taper off Tuesday night, but remain 25kts+ through
Thursday. During this same time frame seas build to 5-8ft. Sub-
SCA conditions then prevail into the first part of the weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday
for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday
for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Baron
NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion
