NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
141
FXUS61 KCAR 110212
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the area tonight and moves into the
Canadian Maritimes Thursday. High pressure builds in Saturday.
Low pressure passes south of the area Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
9PM Update:
Expanded the area of freezing rain across northern Washington
and far southeast Aroostook County. Correlation coefficient
shows the rain/snow line set up from East Millinocket to
Haynesville to Amity, roughly along and just southeast of I-95.
The snow forecast remains largely on track and totals are close
to the forecast updated at 5PM, which increased totals from
Millinocket to Houlton based on modified snow ratios given the
new projection of the rain/snow line.
Key Messages:
1) Winter Storm thru Tonight; Snow North, Rain South
2) Gusty Winds leads to Blowing Snow Thursday Night
Discussion...
Tomorrow afternoon expecting the intially surface low to track
into the Maritimes with a secondary low over far SE Quebec near
the western Maine mountains border. 500mb trof will be back
across the Quebec/Ontario border with cold air aloft working
towards our area. Latest modeling shows a TROWAL enhancing the
development of light snow late in the day in Northern Maine.
Have opted to bump up POPs to likely and above tomorrow night in
these regions with light snow likely. The column will
significantly cool and allow for higher ratio snow of 20:1 or
greater. Hi-res cams have really displayed this TROWAL well in
the last several runs and given the high ratio and slightly
increased QPF expecting 1-2 inches of fluff. As the low tracks
east expecting winds to rapidly increase from the west. Winds
tomorrow afternoon and evening will begin gusting 20-30mph.
Tomorrow night those winds will increase gusting 20-35mph across
much of the CWA. Any locations in Northern Maine that gets
light and fluffy snow will see areas of blowing and drifting
snow. Expect potential impacts to all N-S oriented roads in
Aroostook County and N. Penobscot County along with Route 6 in
the few open areas between Shirley and Greenville. Wind chills
will also fall below zero tomorrow night as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
1) Windy Friday
2) Areas of Blowing Snow Persisting Friday in Open Areas of
Northern Maine
1) Windy Friday:
Tight pressure gradient behind the departing strengthening low
pressure system will lead to gusty west winds during the day
Friday. Gusts will be approaching advisory level, with gusts
topping out 30-40 mph most areas. Some snow showers could
persist Friday in the north, with any additional accumulation
being very minor. Cool with highs in the low to mid 20s. Don`t
anticipate the wind will be enough to lead to power outages.
However, the threat for blowing snow exists. See below key
message.
2) Areas of Blowing Snow Persisting Friday in Open Areas of
Northern Maine:
Looking for a pretty significant blowing/drifting snow event
Thursday night into Friday especially in open areas of Northern
Maine such as the agricultural areas of Aroostook and Northern
Penobscot, and around Moosehead Lake. Winds will be from the
west. The snow will be the most susceptible to blowing in these
areas because of recent snowfall from tonight`s storm and from
the little secondary event Thursday night. We don`t anticipate
any widespread blizzard conditions, but areas of blowing snow
could very briefly bring some open areas to near zero visibility
on roads. Drifting could be pretty substantial as well by the
time the wind eases later Friday evening. It would be worse if
we were in late winter with the deeper snowpack, but this will
be a pretty significant blowing/drifting event by early winter
standards. Dry and quiet conditions late Friday night into
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Potential Snow Sunday/Sunday Evening, Mainly Downeast
1) Potential Snow Sunday/Sunday Evening, Mainly Downeast:
A digging/strengthening upper trough moves through late Sunday
from west to east. Almost all models/ensembles have a decent
surface low pressure developing/strengthening over the Southern
Gulf of Maine or somewhere a bit further south. Question is
whether or not this system can get its act together fast enough
and track far enough north/northwest to give our area any snow.
Most models bring only minor snow to Downeast if any, but a
notable minority of solutions bring moderate snowfall to
Downeast. Going with just a chance of snow Downeast for now, but
it`s something to watch. There could be some blowing snow and
decent wind on the back side of the system Sunday night/Monday.
Below average temperatures Monday/Tuesday, then some moderation
in temperatures likely toward mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL: IFR this evening with LIFR vsby and SN. Expect -SN
to end overnight becoming VCSH/-SHSN. Light S-SE winds tonight.
Cigs becoming MVFR tomorrow with VCSH/-SHSN. Winds shift W mid
day and increase to 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt around
sunset/21z. Tomorrow night -SN returns with IFR/LIFR likely.
BLSN will become an issue reducing vsby. W winds 10-15kt gusting
25-35kt.
BGR/BHB...IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby with -RA. S-SE winds 5-10kt.
Overnight expecting -RA to end and improving to BKN VFR by
Thursday morning. Winds shift W mid morning and increase
rapidly 10-15kt with gusts up to 30kt by late day. Expecting BKN
VFR tomorrow night and W winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 35kt
possible.
SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance/chance of snow showers north.
VFR Downeast. West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 35
knots.
Friday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the evening, decreasing
overnight.
Saturday through Saturday night...VFR. West winds 10-15 knots,
becoming light Saturday night.
Sunday through Monday...Low confidence. Potential of MVFR/IFR,
mainly Downeast. NW winds increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts to
30 kts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Very complicated Marine forecast and headlines. For
tonight a Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-Coastal Waters
until 1AM. S winds 15-25kt with a few gusts up to 35kt and seas
3-6ft. Then have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning from
7PM Thursday to 4PM Friday. W winds 20-30kt and gusts up to 40kt
with seas 3-6ft. Southerly Small Craft Advisory winds tonight
will briefly fall below SCA criteria Thursday AM. Winds will
shift westerly and increase to Gale Warning criteria. For the
Coastal Waters southerly to southwest gales tonight gusting to
35kt will briefly fall below Gale Warning criteria Thursday AM.
Winds will shift westerly and increase back to Gale Warning
criteria. West winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas
8 to 13 ft expected.
SHORT TERM: Gale force westerly winds continuing Friday and
Friday evening, then diminishing to below small craft for
Saturday through midday Sunday. Then around a 60 percent chance
of northwest gales Sunday night. Seas Friday start out around 10
ft but decrease to 3 ft or less Saturday afternoon through
Sunday, and then increase to around 5 ft on Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for MEZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ005-006-
010-011-015-031-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052.
Gale Warning from 7 PM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...JS/TF/MS
Marine...JS/TF
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
