NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
973
FXUS61 KCAR 250655
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
155 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A small area of low pressure will cross the region this morning.
High pressure will approach from the northwest tonight into
Friday and remain to our north over the weekend. Low pressure
will approach on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A small area of low pressure supported by a shortwave diving down
from the northwest will cross the area from northwest to southeast
this morning. Snow ahead of this low will continue across mainly
over eastern areas into mid morning then taper off around midday as
the low exits to the east.
The gradient will quickly tighten behind this low as high pressure
begins to push in from the northwest. This will bring increasing
gusty northwesterly winds late today into tonight. The winds upon
fresh cold dry powdery snow will result in significant blowing snow,
especially across open areas from late today through tonight. Some
patchy blowing snow will continue into Friday morning as the strong
gusty cold winds continue. The gusty winds combined with
temperatures dropping into the low single digits will result in
frigid wind chills tonight into Friday morning down to the teens
below across most of the area Friday morning. Otherwise, tonight
will bring partial clearing followed by sunshine on Friday. Winds
will begin to diminish a bit late Friday as high pressure builds to
our north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...
1) Anomalously cold temps through the period
Key Message 1...
High pressure will build into the area from the west Friday evening
with mostly clr skies areawide. Some questions still remain
regarding high cirrus from system moving off of the mid-Atlantic
coast and how much impact this may have on temps over wrn portions
of the region. Given positron of sfc high winds look to decouple over
the North Woods and have lowered mins accordingly for Friday night
with temps approaching negative 10 by Saturday morning. Where winds
remain mixed over the northeast temps will dip to the negative
single digits, with single digits for Downeast and the coast.
Saturday max temps will be some 15 degree seasonal norms. Though it
will likely be sunny it will end up being a pretty raw day. Clear
skies Saturday night should bring temps down once again into the
single digits over all but the North Woods, where they will drop
below zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Potential significant winter storm early next week
Key Message 1...
Guidance continues to indicate the potential for a significant winter
storm moving into the area early Monday. Upper level energy appears
to have just gotten into the upper air network in Alaska and will
hopefully paint a clearer picture within the next 1-2 days. The
latest med range guidance continues to showing ridge cresting over
the CWA late Sunday night with sfc low over the Great Lakes.
Whether secondary cyclogenesis can occur early enough to keep most
of the area as all snow remains very unclear at this time. If
secondary development occurs south and early most of the area may
see moderate amount of snow on Monday. If it develops later and
further north, a mixed bag of precip is expected north of Bangor and
a possible cold rain along the coast. Most of the 00z GFS ensemble
members move precip into the area between 06-12z Monday as do the
CMC and the EC AI ensemble members. Latest NBM has picked up on this
trend of slow pops down by delaying likely pops over the southwest
until 12z Monday. Either way, post holiday travel will be impacted
for the entire area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
North...MVFR to IFR conditions early this morning will improve to
MVFR late today then VFR tonight except locally MVFR in blowing snow
from late today into early Friday morning. VFR Friday. Winds light
SW early this morning then strong gusty NW late today into Friday
morning, diminishing Friday afternoon.
South...MVFR conditions will improve to VFR this afternoon and
remain VFR tonight into Friday. Winds light SW early this morning
then strong gusty NW late today into Friday morning, diminishing
Friday afternoon.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Sunday...VFR. NNW 5kts.
Sunday night...Diminishing to MVFR late. Light WNW becoming light S
late.
Monday...IFR/LIFR in light snow north and mixed precip south. SSE 5-
10kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A gale warning will be up from late today through Friday morning as
well as a freezing spray advisory from late this evening into Friday
morning for impacts of strong cold NW winds. Seas building up to 6
ft today then 8 ft tonight, subsiding to 4 ft on Friday.
SHORT TERM: Small craft level winds over the outer waters diminish
Friday evening with marginal winds thru Sunday morning. Headlines
not anticipated Sunday and Sunday night with winds increasing to aoa
25kts Monday afternoon and seas becoming elevated in southerly
swell. Gales will be possible Monday night but will depend on
surface low development over the Gulf of Maine.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for
ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MB
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
