NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
687
FXUS61 KCAR 141041
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
541 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks well south and east of the region through
tonight. A high pressure ridge builds across the region Monday
into Tuesday. Low pressure will track north of the region
Wednesday dragging a weak cold front across the area. High
pressure returns Thursday briefly and another larger low
pressure tracks north of the area Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...
Have updated to adjust for current conditions, mostly
temperatures and clouds. Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory
for the intra-coastal waters effective from 7 PM this evening to
1 PM Monday.
Previous Discussion...
An upper level low begins to cross the region today supporting
a developing ocean low well south of the Gulf of Maine. The
northern edge of the precipitation shield from the ocean low
could clip the Downeast region today with a slight chance/chance
of light snow. Any snow accumulations Downeast should be less
than an inch, with the best chances along the Downeast coast.
Otherwise, the upper low should bring mostly cloudy skies along
with isolated snow showers across the remainder of the forecast
area. The ocean low will intensify while tracking east of Nova
Scotia toward Newfoundland tonight, while the upper low crosses
the region. Isolated snow showers are possible early tonight.
Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies across the forecast
area tonight. The upper low will exit early Monday, with
surface high pressure building toward the region late. Expect
partly sunny skies Monday. The pressure gradient between the
intensifying Maritimes low and building high pressure will help
support gusty northwest/west winds Monday. High temperatures
today will range from around 20 to the mid 20s north, to the
upper 20s interior Downeast with around 30 along the Downeast
coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 5 to
around 10 north, to 10 to 15 Downeast. High temperatures Monday
will range from the mid to upper teens north, to around 20
interior Downeast with low to mid 20s along the Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*Key Messages
1) Cold night Monday night
2) Warming trend begins Wednesday
Discussion...
500mb shortwave trof will pass NW to SE across the CWA Monday
night. Surface high pressure ridge slowly builds in across the
area with rapidly cooling 925mb temps to -14C across the area.
Skies will become partly cloudy and westerly winds gradually
relax. Air temperatures will fall back into the 0-5F range
across the north, 4-8F in the Central Highlands and 6-9F across
the Bangor Region and 10-15F Downeast. Tuesday into Tuesday
night winds shift SW 5-10mph and temperatures warm into the low
20s north and mid to upper 20s for the Central Highlands to
Bangor region. 30-35F for the Downeast coast. Overcast skies
Tuesday night into Wednesday and low temperatures fall back into
the mid to upper teens for most with 20s along the coast.
A warm front crosses the area Wednesday AM with warming
temperatures. S-SW winds 5-15mph with gusts 20 to 25mph develop
in the morning into the afternoon. Temperatures warm into the
low to mid 30s across the north, mid 30s for the Central
Highlands and Bangor Region then low 40s for the Downeast coast.
In Caribou the warmest temperatures since December 1st with
isolated to scattered snow showers across northern areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Messages
1) Rain on snow resulting in snowpack loss
2) Flash freeze potential Friday afternoon
Discussion...
Overall pattern in the long term features a progressive
northern jet stream with storm tracks favoring a warmer system.
This concurs with the overall ensemble forecast of PNA turning
significantly negative and NAO returning to neutral phase within
our current weak La Nina pattern.
Wednesday night a weak cold front crosses the area then warm
front approaches the area Thursday as high pressure tracks SE
of Maine. S winds 5-15mph across the area Thursday with highs in
the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s for the southern areas.
A more significant storm system approaches the area for late
week. Ensembles and operational models showing significant
differences of timing but strong confidence in a warmer system
as low pressure deepens and tracks NW of the state. This means
intially snow depending on timing and then most of the
precipitation will likely be rainfall. Looking at NBM 4.3
probabilities of >0.5 inch increasing to 40-60 percent across
the CWA and NBM 5.0 of >0.5 inch increasing to 60-70 percent.
NOHRSC analysis shows a cold snowpack today but with warming day
temperatures ahead of the rain then rain on snow will likely
result in significant pack compaction and potential for
melt/runoff. In addition prior to FROPA expect gusty winds and
several members suggest potential for strong gusty winds.
A cold front will cross the area and likely result in
significant cold air advection Friday afternoon. This will
create the potential for a flash freeze and possible snow on the
backside. Will need to continue watching the trends over the
next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas VFR/MVFR today into Monday.
Isolated snow showers today through early tonight. Across
Downeast areas VFR/MVFR today with a chance of light snow. VFR
tonight through Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
north/northwest 10 to 15 knots today. Northwest/west winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots tonight, then 10 to
15 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots Monday.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. W winds 5-15kt shifting SW late day
and decreasing to 5-10kt.
Wednesday...VFR south, MVFR north. VCSH/-SHSN north. S-SW winds
10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt at BGR and BHB.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. S winds 10-15kt.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the
intra-coastal waters effective from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM
Monday with this update. A Gale Watch remains in effect for
the remainder of the waters from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM
Monday. A chance of snow today, then scattered snow showers
early tonight. Light freezing spray later tonight into Monday.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas fall below SCA criteria Monday night.
Winds and seas return to SCA levels late Tue by late evening.
Wed AM SW gales will gust up to 45kt during the day Wed and
shift W-NW Wed night and relax back to SCA levels. Winds will be
below SCA levels Thursday and another S gales will be possible
Thursday night into Friday. In terms of waves expecting
significant waves possible Wednesday, Thursday night into
Friday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CN
Short Term...JS
Long Term...JS
Aviation...CN/JS
Marine...CN/JS