NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
193
FXUS61 KCAR 031953
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
253 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front crosses the region on Thursday. High
pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday. A cold
front crosses the region Sunday. High pressure builds toward
the region Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Snow Squalls Likely Thursday, Brief Dangerous Travel Possible
-Arctic Air Mass Arrives Thursday Night
Discussion...
Tonight will be mainly benign across the CWA with 500mb weak
ridging passing overhead. Mostly cloudy skies and temperatures
falling back into the mid to upper teens north and upper teens
to low 20s south. Winds light and variable slowly shifting S at
5-10mph overnight.
Thursday will feature a solid potent arctic cold front passing
through the area. Hi-Res models along with the global models
have come into really solid agreement on timing and the dynamics
at play for Thursday. General timing is 7AM-10AM across the
North Woods, Moosehead Region and Allagash Region. 8AM-Noon for
Route 11 to Route 1 corridors in Aroostook County. 11AM-2PM for
the I-95 Corridor from Houlton to Bangor to Newport. Then
Noon-3PM for the Downeast coast. Looking at the dynamics at play
we have very good agreement on non-zero CAPE, very steep low
level lapse rates, a well mixed boundary layer 3-4.5kft deep.
Winds at 3-4.5kft will be 30-40kt and much will mix down with
FROPA. Given the best diurnal part of the day a sharp boundary
and dynamics/thermodynamics supporting squalls will continue to
message it. We do expect some heavy snow showers to potentially
reach the need for SQWs tomorrow. Have placed the concerns in
the HWO and will message via social media. Any snow shower to
squall has the potential to reduce visibility to 1/4mi or less
and produce a quick 1-2 inches of accumulations. As the front
crosses the region expect rapidly falling temperatures with 6-12
degree temperature falls at FROPA.
Thursday night the arctic front will pass well SE of the state
and strong cold air advection takes shape on W-NW winds. Using
the NOAA Hysplit backward trajectory this airmass originated
from Siberia Russia back on November 26th traveling over the
North Pole to Canada and then soon here in Maine. Thursday night
will be the coldest night so far this season. Air temperatures
will fall back to -7F to -1F across much of the northern 2/3rd
of the CWA. The Bangor Region to Calais will see -3F to +2F air
temperatures with 0F to +5F along the Downeast coast and +5F to
+10F for the islands. Expect widespread W-NW wind gusts 20-35mph
with isolated stronger gusts especially in places like
Greenville and the open agricultural areas of Aroostook and
Northern Penobscot counties. Strong gusts combined with frigid
temperatures will result in wind chills dropping to between -25F
to -15F across much of the CWA. The Moosehead Region northward
into the North Woods and NE Aroostook County may flirt with Cold
Weather Advisory level wind chills but will hold off right now
on potential headlines.
Blowing snow is possible from any recent snowfall as winds
increase behind the cold front across any open areas that see
wind gusts >25mph. Patchy blowing snow may cause localized
whiteouts and dangerous driving conditions in the open areas of
Aroostook and N. Penobscot counties. This could impact such
roadways but not limited too; Routes 1, 1A, 2, 10, 11, 89, 161,
163, 167 and 212.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the region Friday through early
Saturday. Expect mostly sunny skies early Friday, then partly
sunny. Partly cloudy/mostly clear Friday night. Partly sunny
early Saturday, then increasing clouds. Partly/mostly cloudy
Saturday night with isolated snow showers. Much below normal
level temperatures Friday, then below normal level temperatures
Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday with
isolated/scattered snow showers. High pressure should build
across the region Monday into early Tuesday with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies. Low pressure could then begin to
approach later Tuesday with increasing clouds and chance of snow
or snow showers. Low pressure could then bring a chance of snow
or snow showers Wednesday. Slightly below normal level
temperatures Sunday, then below normal level temperatures Monday
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Rest of Today... Slowly improving from MVFR cigs to
low end VFR. SCT-BKN VFR cigs likely in BGR and BHB within the
next 1-2hrs. Winds becoming light and variable.
Tonight...VFR south. VFR becoming MVFR cigs tonight. VCSH by
12z. Winds light and variable tonight becoming S 5-10kt by AM.
Tomorrow...MVFR cigs north. 12-17z will feature an arctic front.
SHSN likely reducing vsby to IFR/LIFR briefly. Added PROB30
groups to the 4 northern terms for potential of squalls. Winds
will rapidly change W with FROPA and increase 10-20kt with gusts
20-30kt. VFR south. Brief MVFR cigs at south terms in the
afternoon with -SHSN/VCSH. Potential exists for reduced vsby
from SHSN and any squalls but confidence is low. Winds at
southern terms will shift W increase 10-20kt with FROPA and gust
20-30kt.
Tomorrow Night...VFR all terms. W-WNW winds 10-20kt with gusts
25-35kt. Winds will relax some by 12z Friday.
SHORT TERM:
Friday through Friday night...Occasional MVFR ceilings possible
north. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming west/southwest 5 to 10
knots Friday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night.
Saturday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming south/southeast.
Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday...Variable conditions with snow showers. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest
10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers north, slight
chance of snow showers Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Monday...VFR/MVFR north, VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for the Intra-Coastal and
Coastal Waters from 3PM Thursday till 7AM Friday. Tonight
expecting seas to be 4-7ft across the waters but winds below SCA
levels. SW winds tomorrow will increase to SCA levels by mid
morning and gusting 30-35kt in the late afternoon. Winds will
shift NW around or just before sunset and rapidly increase to NW
gales. Tomorrow night on the Intra-Coastal Waters NW winds 20
to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 3 to 5 ft expected. On
the Coastal Waters NW winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt
and seas 7 to 10 ft expected. Air temperatures will be rapidly
falling tomorrow night into the single digits and teens.
Although sea surface water temperatures are in the 45-48F range
it is possible some areas with colder SSTs may see light
freezing spray. Confidence is too low to put in the forecast at
this time.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions Friday into Friday
night. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Saturday
into Saturday night. Isolated snow showers possible Saturday
into Saturday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...JS/CN
Marine...JS/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
