NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 061819
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
219 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast early today. High pressure
will build across the region later today into Tuesday. A warm
front will cross the region Wednesday. Weak high pressure from
the southwest then remains over the area through the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
220 pm update...
Clds continue to vry slowly decrease throughout the area as dry
air works in on nrly flow. Sfc low spinning over the far wrn
Gulf of St. Lawrence near Bathurst NB which is keeping far nern
tip of Aroostook County in clds this aftn. Expect that sfc low
may retrograde back to the west overnight keeping clouds in nr
the St. John Vly but rmndr of the fcst area should be fairly
clear with the exception of cirrus transiting acrs the area.
Quick update to slow the temp rise due to clds but ultimately
reaching their fcst highs for tda, lwr 70s acrs the and m70s for
interior Downeast.

previous discussion
Short wave continues to slide to the east of the Canadian
Maritime provinces today. Some models continue to suggest there
may be enough instabilty associated with the departing short
wave for a few showers, mainly along the ME/NB border though
midday, before upper ridge begins to build east as short waves
kicks to the east of Nova Scotia. Light north wind and lingering
cloud will hold temperatures mainly in the low 70s north and
low to mid 70s across the central highlands and interior
Downeast areas.

Upper level ridge continues to build across the forecast area
tonight as surface high drifts slowly east. Light south to southeast
flow around the high could lead to some low cloud and patchy fog
developing along the Downeast coast overnight. Elsewhere, expect
mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 40s across the Northwest and lower to mid 50s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tue looks to be the last fair and relatively cool, dry day
before a warm front begins to apch the FA from QB later Tue ngt
into Wed, bringing a good bet of shwrs/tstms and increasing
humidity. Warmer and much more humid conditions will arrive
behind the warm front Wed ngt and Thu with late ngt/erly morn
patchy fog, and chc of late aftn and eve tstms just after the
heat of the day Thu mainly across the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any remnant shwrs/tstms Thu eve across the N should dissipate
late Thu ngt, with more late ngt/erly morn patchy fog xpctd
aftwrds. Fri looks to be the warmest day of the upcoming week as
an upper ridge crests the Rgn, with highs in the mid to upper
80s and even a few low 90s ovr low trrn lctns inland from the
immediate Downeast coast with another chc of aftn and eve tstms
mainly across the N and W.

The rest of long range thru the weekend is very uncertain attm,
dependent on whether tropical/subtropical low pres forms off
the SE coast and what exact track it takes toward the NE if
it does form. For now, we went with blended long range model
guidance PoPs with some diurnal modulation, but needless to say,
it looks to be a humid pd and potentially more rainier pattern
then we have seen lately with blended long range model guidance
giving at least chc PoPs every pd from Fri ngt thru Sun alg with
late ngt and erly morn patchy fog.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected this afternoon into this evening.
May see MVFR/IFR vsbys at FVE, PQI and HUL develop after 08z as
winds go calm. BGR likely to see MVFR vsbys with potential for
MVFR clouds but have opted to go SCT025 due to low confidence.
BHB seeing IFR between 05-12z in the morning. Al sites becoming
VFR after 12z with SSE winds around 5kts.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue...all sites VFR with lgt winds.

Tue Ngt - Fri...all sites VFR mid morn thru late eve and
MVFR/IFR late ngt into erly morn in patchy ST cld cvr and fog
each day. Clgs/vsbys also briefly lower in any tstm or heavier
shwr.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight. Patchy fog this morning and again tonight will result
in visibility reduced to 1 to 3 NM at times early this morning
and again tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs below SCA xpctd Tue ngt thru
Fri. Wvs via swells may reach or exceed min SCA thresholds of
5 ft mainly ovr our outer MZs this weekend depending on whether
organized low pres moves NE from the SE states toward Nova
Scotia, but certainty on this is low attm. Marine ST/fog will
become a sig player by late Wed ngt if not sooner, then cont
right into the weekend. Went with blended model guidance for
fcst wv hts with wv pds msly between 5 to 8 sec, potentially
increasing to to arnd 10 sec in swell by the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/VJN
Marine...Duda/Farrar/VJN

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion