NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
539
FXUS61 KCAR 070156
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
856 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and slides
southeast of the area on Friday. A warm front lifts through
Maine Friday night and Saturday morning, followed by a cold
front Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in from the
northwest Saturday night. A complex storm system approaches from
the southwest Sunday and Sunday night, passing through the area
on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will continue to build into the region tonight.
Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows by
morning will range from the low to mid 20s across the north and
low to mid 20s for central and Downeast areas.
See updated aviation and marine sections below.
previous discussion
On Friday, clouds increase again ahead of an approaching clipper
system that will pass to our northwest. Precipitation ahead of
an approaching warm front should begin in western areas during
the early to mid afternoon and spread east by late evening. Snow
is expected for northern areas with rain for the south. The
rain/snow line should set up along a line from Greenville to
Houlton. A few tenths of a inch of slushy wet snow may fall but
it will quickly melt away come morning as southerly flow in the
warm sector of the system brings warm air northward, changing
precipitation to rain everywhere by around 3 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc low sitting north of Quebec City will likely have dry slot
moving into the CWA by Saturday morning and essentially shutting of
steadier pcpn. Have dropped pops for all but northern and ern areas
by 12z with warmer air moving in having switched pcpn over to rain
showers. Temps will have risen overnight and will be starting out
around 40F with highs climbing about 4-6 degrees above normal in
warm advection.
Cold front will move through in the afternoon with skies clearing
and temperatures dropping. Sfc hipres will build in rapidly behind
departing system with WNW winds diminishing late. Mins drop into the
20s acrs the north and around 30 over Downeast by Sunday morning.
The next system in a never-ending wave train looks to be on the
docket over the Great Lakes Sunday morning as a long-wave trof
pivots into the upr Midwest. Cannot rule out stratiform pcpn moving
in Sunday afternoon but given NBM/s propensity to bring in pops too
quickly may be able to back off on timing over the coming days.
Operational guidance showing possible secondary development south of
New England by 00z Monday. Ensemble members remain up in the air on
development of secondary low at this timeframe. Either way, if pcpn
can start early enough it will likely start off as snow before
warming and switching over to rain in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Energy in the base of the trof looks to close off Sunday night over
the Ohio area. Looking at ensemble guidance it appears that pcpn
should work in around midnight Sunday night over the entire area.
Significant differences still remain with timing and track of upr
low and associated sfc low. 12z GFS looks to be much quicker than
EC/CMC in movement of H5 low as it ejects northeast into Canada
early next week. Exact track of sfc low will determine ptype timing
and location, as well as how quickly it will end. As low moves
northeast into Canada toward mid-week expect that gusty west-
northwest winds will return to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR is expected tonight through most of Friday
afternoon at all terminals. W wind 5 to 10 kt through Friday
morning, becoming S to SW in the afternoon.
Outlook for Friday night...MVFR/IFR in snow/rain mix north and
rain south. S to SE wind 5 to 10 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR Downeast. MVFR early north becoming VFR in the
afternoon. S 5-10kts becoming W 10-20kts in the afternoon.
Saturday night...VFR. WNW 5-10kts.
Sunday...Mainly VFR, becoming MVFR late. N 5kts, becoming E in the
afternoon.
Sunday night-Monday night...MVFR/IFR, possible LIFR in rain/snow
mix. E 5-10kts through Monday afternoon, becoming W 5-15kts Monday
night. LLWS possible Monday afternoon.
Tuesday...MVFR. possible IFR over northern terminals in rain/snow
mix. W 10-20kts gusting to 25kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory on the
coastal waters until 5 AM EST as winds will continue to
gradually diminish by morning. Winds will then remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels Friday morning before increasing to
Small Craft Advisory levels by later Friday afternoon. Gales
also remain a possibility on the outer waters Friday night.
SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions will be diminishing over the outer
waters Saturday as seas drop below 5ft Saturday evening. Small craft
conditions return Sunday evening with east winds gusting aoa 25kts
during the nighttime hours. Small craft conditions return Monday
night with winds approaching gale force Tuesday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/SM
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...TWD/SM/21
Marine...TWD/SM/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
