NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
275
FXUS61 KCAR 251157
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
657 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update for 12z Aviation section
-Increased pops on Saturday ahead of cold front
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front will bring rain and snow showers and strong
gusty winds Saturday afternoon followed by falling temperatures
Saturday evening. Wind impacts Saturday afternoon and icing on road
surfaces Saturday night are possible with the front.
2) Bitter cold Arctic air will surge into the region Saturday night
into Sunday bringing frigid wind chills and the risk of hypothermia.
3) Snow will accumulate 1-3 inches over Downeast this afternoon,
impacting the evening commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will bring rain and snow showers
and strong gusty winds Saturday afternoon followed by falling
temperatures Saturday evening. Wind impacts Saturday afternoon and
icing on road surfaces Saturday night are possible with the front.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure tracking into Central Quebec combined with high
pressure dropping south into the Plains will push a strong Arctic
cold front toward the area on Saturday. A tight gradient between the
approaching cold front and high pressure sliding off to the east
will bring strong gusty south winds on Saturday. As the front
pushes in Saturday afternoon, some rain and wet snow showers
will push into the area, mainly across central and northern
areas. Forecast soundings are showing a brief period of steep
lapse rates up to 6K ft late Saturday afternoon. A tight SSW
gradient aligned deep in the atmosphere will result in the
potential for strong wind gusts as the front pushes in late in
the day causing deeper mixing and pulling down some of the
higher winds from aloft.
The cold front will cross the area early Saturday evening followed
by falling temperatures as Arctic air surges in. Any dampness on the
roads caused either by the rain or wet snow ahead of the front or
streamers of melting snow left over from the mild day on Saturday
will freeze and result in the potential for icy patches
Saturday night. Gusty winds will likely continue Saturday night
as the colder air surges in and some mixing continues to take
place.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Bitter cold Arctic air will surge into the region
Saturday night into Sunday bringing frigid wind chills and the risk
of hypothermia.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air will surge into the area behind the cold front
Saturday night into Sunday. By Sunday morning temperatures will
have dropped to around zero in the northwest and 20 along the
coast, only to rise into the mid teens north and near 30
Downeast Sunday afternoon. The coldest temperatures will come
Sunday night as high pressure begins to build over the region.
Lows by Monday morning will range from the teens below in the
northwest to near zero by the coast. A light westerly breeze
Monday morning will combine with the frigid temperatures to
produce wind chills down to the mid 20s below across the north
Sunday morning and the low teens below over parts of Downeast.
This will be followed by highs Monday from near 10 over the far
north to the upper teens by the coast which will be over 15
degrees below normal.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Snow will accumulate 1-3 inches over Downeast
this afternoon, impacting the evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system currently north of Lake Superior will
continue tracking toward the region this morning. Ridge axis
currently over the CWA will keep snow at bay until around 15z this
morning with warm front moving in. Overrunning snow will overspread
the entire region by 18z as a weak triple point begins to develop.
This will increase warm air advection along the shoreline and outer
islands where rain may briefly mix in, and cut down on snow
accumulations. Synoptic lift will be enhanced by convergence with
one-half to one inch per hour rates around the time of the evening
commute along the coast. This will briefly reduce visibilities
and likely lead to slick travel.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...VFR at terminals into the late morning hours before MVFR
restrictions move in with light snow. Conditions quickly deteriorate
to IFR with BHB the most likely site to see LIFR conditions this
afternoon. LLWS at HUL, BGR and BHB this afternoon and evening.
SSE wind 5-15kts.
Tonight...MVFR/IFR in snow through the evening hours with Downeast
terminals improving to MVFR late while Aroostook terminals see
MVFR tempo IFR into Thursday morning. SW wind 5kts.
Thursday...VFR south with MVFR north. Cannot rule out brief IFR at
northern Aroostook terminals in any heavy snow showers. SW
5-15kts.
Thursday night and Friday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.
Friday night...VFR dropping to IFR south late, and dropping to MVFR
over the north late. S wind 5 kt increasing to 5 to 10 kt late.
Saturday...IFR except in a few midday breaks. S wind 10 kt
increasing to 15 kt with higher gusts. SW wind shear at 2K ft
likely.
Saturday night...IFR to MVFR south. MVFR improving to VFR north. W
wind 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
South winds increase ahead of developing low pressure with
gusts to small craft levels this morning. The outer waters may
briefly see a few gusts to gale force this afternoon but overall
expecting steady small craft level winds. Seas will increase above
5ft this afternoon and will remain elevated over the outer waters
through Thursday, while diminishing over the intracoastal zone this
evening.
A SCA will be needed late Friday night into Saturday evening for S
winds gusting up to 30 kt. A SCA and possibly a gale will likely be
needed late Sunday through Sunday night for NW winds gusting up
to 30 to 35 kt. Moderate freezing spray is likely Sunday night
into Monday morning. Seas 5 ft Thursday night dropping to 4 ft
Friday, then rising to 5 ft Friday night and 7 ft on Saturday in
response to the southerly. Seas dropping back to 4 ft by early
Sunday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
