NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
554
FXUS61 KCAR 300652
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
152 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the west today. A warm front crosses
early Sunday evening, followed by a cold front late Sunday night.
A secondary cold front crosses the area on Monday, followed by
high pressure building in Monday night. A coastal low approaches
from the southwest on Tuesday, passes offshore Tuesday night,
then exists into the southern Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. A
cold front then moves in Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
1) Light snow in Northern Maine this afternoon and evening
2) Gusty south winds coastal Downeast this afternoon and
evening
3) Snow squalls possible Monday morning Northern Maine
Key Message 1...
Warm front moving through from SW to NE brings light
precipitation this afternoon and evening. While models are in
good agreement, there are a few uncertain items we`ll need to
watch. One is the onset time. Our best shot at start time
ranges from late morning in the west around Moosehead Lake, to
around 1-2pm toward the New Brunswick border. There are a few
hours of uncertainty in this, depending on how quickly the dry
layer a few thousand feet off the ground can saturate. Either
way, precipitation rates aren`t that impressive today, with only
around a tenth of an inch of precip by early evening. That
said, with it being a heavier travel day and with the threat of
wintry precip, it`s important to get it right. Which brings us
to the other slightly uncertain item...precipitation type. Most
of the precip in the far north will be snow except perhaps at
the very end of the evening mid to late evening. However, Bangor
and toward the coast could start as rain or snow. If it does
start as snow Downeast, think it`ll change to rain pretty fast,
fast enough to keep accumulations less than a quarter inch.
While it starts as snow north of Bangor, we will see the rain
snow line march northward through the afternoon and into the
early evening, making it to Millinocket around 6pm (plus or
minus 1-2 hours), to Houlton around 7pm, and it may briefly
change with or mix with rain up toward Presque Isle, Caribou,
and Madawaska mid-late evening before the precip ends. This is
looking like a minor snow event for the north overall, with just
1-3 inches expected. The general trend in thinking has been for
slightly lesser accumulations. No freezing rain or sleet
expected.
Key Message 2...
Pretty potent low level southerly jet this afternoon and evening
mainly east of the highlands, from Aroostook County south along
I-95 and to the coast. Gusts to 25 mph are possible inland, but
the coast could see a few gusts to 40 mph which may be enough
for an isolated power outage. Opted not to issue a wind advisory
as in general gusts look to be just below criteria and impacts
look minimal. Winds slacken toward midnight as the low level jet
shifts east of the area and a weak cold front moves through with
surface winds switching to the southwest.
Key Message 3...
With the secondary cold front moving into Northern Maine Monday
morning, a bit concerned there could be some snow squalls mainly
with the front itself, but possibly briefly behind the front as
well. Instability is there, but isn`t the best for a potent
snowfall rates with the potential squalls. That said, most CAMs
do have a line of showers along the front, and think that winds
could gust to 30 mph with the snow showers as the front passes.
Temps should be around freezing just ahead of the front and
then drop into the upper 20s, which could be a setup for a quick
flash freeze for places that do get the snow shower. The
highest risk for snow squalls is north of Millinocket and
Houlton. Snow accumulation from any showers/squalls in the north
should be a half inch or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-High uncertainty remains with the track of the system Tuesday
through Wednesday
-Cold temps Monday night and Tuesday night
High pressure should remain for Monday night, which will keep a
mainly clear sky at the beginning of Monday night. With calm
winds and a fresh snow pack, temps should drop into the single
digits in the north and teens in the south.
By Tuesday morning, the low pressure system is expected to
track towards the region. Unfortunately, there is still high
uncertainty with the track of the storm. As of this update, the
ensemble probabilities give a wide swath of snow totals mainly
concentrated in the Central Highlands and south. The NBM prob of
greater than 6 inches snow amount shows low-moderate confidence
(30-40 percent). This will all depend on if the ensembles
southerly track is correct or the deterministic northerly track
is correct.
By Tuesday night, winds are expected to increase as the system
begins to exit the region. Though clouds should be exiting to
the E throughout the night, it should remain long enough to keep
temps in the teens with single digits in the North Woods. With
the breezy winds and cold temps, there is a concern of wind
chills reaching the single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-A possibility of snow squalls on Thursday, impacting daytime
travel in the north with low visibility and gusty winds.
The next system to move for the region should come in the form
of a cold front on Thursday. Snow amounts should be fairly low,
however, upper air models soundings indicate instability along
the frontal boundary. There is concern for snow squalls with the
front in the afternoon causing issues for the Thursday commute.
After the front passes, very cold arctic air should move into
the region, causing Thursday night temps to drop into the single
digits below zero in the north and single digits above zero in
the south. Gust winds behind the front could drop wind chill
temps into the teens below zero or even colder. Closer models
runs will give a better idea of cold temps and snow squall
potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR this morning, but as precipitation
develops today, expect MVFR to take over, with likely IFR this
evening for most sites. Precipitation will be mostly snow from
HUL north, with perhaps a brief changeover to rain as it ends
after 0z. Precip may start as snow BHB/BGR, but quickly change
to rain. South winds increase and will be quite gusty BGR and
especially BHB, with gusts over 25 kts possible this evening.
LLWS at all TAF sites late afternoon into the evening, abating
overnight. Also expect IFR to generally lift to VFR late
tonight, except perhaps remaining MVFR north.
Monday should be mostly VFR HUL, BGR, and BHB, but MVFR at times
PQI, CAR, FVE. Snow squalls possible PQI/CAR/FVE as well mainly
between 12-16z. NW winds increasing to around 15 gusting 25 kts.
SHORT TERM: Monday Night...VFR with light wind.
Tuesday -Tuesday Night...MVFR/IFR in snow,
especially south. Confidence is still low in this event. N/NE
wind 10-15 kts.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...Probably VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts
becoming SW 10 kts.
Thursday...MVFR tempo IFR/LIFR in snow showers. Winds SW 10 kts
becoming W 10 to 20 kts. Possible gusts 25 to 30 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Very high confidence in southerly gales late today
into this evening. Winds switch to westerly late tonight and
remain W/NW into Monday. As the switch happens, winds ease a
bit, and will be borderline gale/small craft. Seas build close
to 11 ft late tonight then ease to around 6 ft later Monday.
SHORT TERM: Much improved winds/seas Monday night/early
Tuesday. Moderate likelihood of gales late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday. Seas could also build back up to around 10 ft, but
most likely 8 feet, with the highest seas further offshore.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TF
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...TF/ARL
Marine...TF/ARL