NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
150
FXUS61 KCAR 062343
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
743 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated aviation section to reflect 0Z TAFs
-Potential for snow Downeast on Tuesday, with a chance for some
heavier showers in the afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential for heavy snow showers persists into tonight in
northern Maine. Could result in periods of reduced visibility
and slick travel.
2) Cold temperatures and light snow Tuesday night.
3) Low RHs expected Wednesday which may lead to increased fire
weather concerns in areas where no snowpack exists.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for heavy snow showers persists into
tonight in northern Maine. Could result in periods of reduced
visibility and slick travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Lingering instability from departing low pressure, and
shortwave, result in some snow showers throughout the north
this evening. Northwesterly flow and decent low-to-mid level
lapse rates results in some Laurentian plumes off the St.
Lawrence river. CAMs continue to pick up on these plumes
occurring this evening into late tonight. Snow squall parameter
ingredients look favorable for good lift, but not anticipating
winds to reach squall criteria. These plumes could cause
periods of reduced visibility and slick travel. Snow shower
chances decrease after midnight tonight. Not much in
accumulations expected due to short duration of showers
potential for up to half an inch in localized locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold temperatures and light snow Tuesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure from the west builds in, with colder air settling
over the region. Overnight lows tonight in the single digits to
teens in the north, and low-to-mid 20s Downeast. Temperatures a
little colder Tuesday night, especially with skies expected to
clear out. Overnight lows in the single digits to low teens in
the north, and low-20s Downeast. Thankfully, both nights do not
have much wind, keeping apparent temperatures above zero at
least. Remember to bundle up if spending long periods of time
outdoors.
Shortwave moves in on Tuesday afternoon as well, moving just
south of Nova Scotia. It brings a chance of light snowfall,
mainly confined Downeast, and generally under an inch in
accumulations. Decent lapse rates indicate there could be
periods of heavier showers.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Low RHs expected Wednesday which may lead to
increased fire weather concerns in areas where no snowpack
exists.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Dry snowfree grounds Downeast to Bangor Region, low RHs, light
winds, and mostly sunny skies may lead to some increased fire
weather concerns Wednesday.
On Tuesday, high pressure building in from the west will result
in subsidence across the area with a mix of sun and clouds
allowing for mixing up to 800mb. With ample dry air aloft, this
is likely to result in dry conditions near the surface with RH
around 30-35%, especially in the Bangor region and Upper
Penobscot Valley. Elsewhere, 40-45% RHs. Questions still remain
as to just how low RHs will drop depending on if a weak clipper
moving just offshore brings any precipitation to southern
areas.
High pressure slides to the south of Maine Wednesday resulting
in W-SW flow across the area under a strong subsidence
inversion with ample dry air aloft. Deep mixing up to 800mb
combined with mostly sunny skies, especially further south,
should contribute to very low RHs, likely below 23-28%.
Elsewhere generally 35-40% across the North from Moosehead
Region to Baxter Region northward to the St. John Valley. Winds
will not be that strong generally 5-10mph with occasionally
gusting 15 to 20 mph especially across the terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight...Mainly VFR. Low chance MFVR in isold -shsn at the
Aroostook terminals. NW wind 10 to 15 kt with G20kt.
Tuesday...Generally VFR in the north. Potential for MVFR in
southern terminals with some snow showers. Could be brief
periods of heavier snow showers. Winds from the NW 5 to 10 kt
Tuesday night...VFR as snow showers move out of the region. NW
winds at 5 to 10 kts.
Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Wednesday. South/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday.
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. South winds
around 10 knots.
Friday...VFR/MVFR north with a chance of showers. Across
Downeast areas, a slight chance of showers and MVFR late.
Otherwise, VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots.
Saturday...VFR. AM showers possible. W-NW winds 5-15kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions below Small Craft criteria through Tuesday. Chance
for some Small Craft conditions starting Tuesday night. Chance
of snow Tuesday. Winds from the W/NW, shifting to the E by
Tuesday.
SCA conditions Tuesday night. Conditions below SCA levels
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Another round of SCA conditions
Thursday into Thursday night. A chance of snow early Tuesday
night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/JS
AVIATION...ASB/TWD/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
