NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
002
FXUS61 KCAR 071853
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
253 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased chances for snow showers this evening into tonight,
and extended snow up to southern Aroostook. Sub-advisory
accumulations in the Central Highlands.
-Dropped dewpoints for tomorrow based on sounding guidance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold temperatures and light snow tonight into late tonight.
2) Low relative humidity expected Wednesday and Thursday, which
may lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas with no
snow pack.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures and light snow tonight into
late tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure continues to build in from the west, with colder
air settling over the region. Trough continues moving over the
state, as an associated shortwave digs into Maine. This
shortwave has been bringing a chance of light snowfall, with the
heaviest accumulations in the Central Highlands and Downeast.
Decent lapse rates indicate there could be periods of heavier
showers. Light snow could reach up to southern Aroostook as the
system continues to move eastward later tonight. Snow expected
to move out after midnight. Overall, looking at 1-3 inches
possible in the Central Highlands and Upper Penobscot Valley.
1-2 inches possible along Downeast region. Up to 1 inch possible
in southern Aroostook.
Overnight lows in the single digits to low-teens in the north,
and low-20s Downeast. Relatively calm wind speeds tonight, keep
any wind chills generally above zero. Remember to bundle up if
spending long periods of time outdoors.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Low relative humidity expected Wednesday and
Thursday, which may lead to increased fire weather concerns in
areas with no snow pack.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure system that settles over the region results in
west/southwesterly flow. Based on sounding analysis, plenty of
dry air aloft and room for mixing up to around 850mb.
Anticipating low dewpoints potentially in the single digits,
with RHs in the 30s in the north and 20s Downeast. Winds
roughly 5-10 mph throughout the region.
For Thursday, dew-points roughly in the 30s in the north,
30s-40 for interior Downeast, and 50s along the Downeast
coastline due to onshore flow. Gustier winds are possible on
Thursday, with 25-30mph gusts possible. Areas that no longer
hold a snow pack, which is generally the Central Highlands
region south, could have fire concerns for these days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight...Generally VFR in the north. Potential for MVFR/IFR at
KHUL and southern terminals with snow showers. Could be brief
periods of heavier snow showers. Snow moves out and ceilings
raise by late tonight. Winds from the NW 5-10 kts.
Wednesday: VFR. W/SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots.
Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. S 5-10kts becoming S 5-15kts
Thursday with gusts to 25kts in the afternoon.
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR. Localized IFR. S 5-15kts.
Friday-Friday night...MVFR/IFR in light rain. SSW 5-15kts Friday,
becoming NW 5-10kts Friday evening.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR with rain early, becoming VFR in the afternoon.
NW 5-15kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft conditions over intra-coastals and outer
waters tonight into early Wednesday morning. Waves stay at or
below 5 ft. Rain/snow showers expected this evening into
tonight. Winds from the SE this evening, shifting to the N by
Wednesday morning. Winds shift to the SW by Wednesday night.
Winds remain below small craft levels through Thursday before
marginally gusting up to 25kts in the evening. However this
does not appear likely under stable southerly flow. Seas rise
above 5ft Friday evening and remain elevated into Saturday
afternoon.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ050-052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/21
AVIATION...ASB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
