NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172105
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
405 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit into the Canadian Maritimes overnight.
High pressure will build toward the region Thursday and Friday.
A warm front will approach from the southwest early Saturday
followed by a cold front later Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We were able to drop zone 31 from the NW ptn of the wntr wx adv
area with the more sig accumulating snfl zone displaced just
ESE. Otherwise, wntr stm wrngs ovr coastal Downeast areas and
wntr wx advs ovr interior Downeast and E Cntrl areas will cont
at least into erly eve, at which point models indicate steady
snfl winding down quickly by mid eve, meaning hdlns may be able
to be dropped prior to 11 pm. Additional snfl prior to hdln
termination will range from 1 to 2 inches across the NW ptn of
the adv area to at least 2 to 4 inches ovr the wrng area.

Elsewhere across the N, a wedge of dry air has so invaded, that
the potential of any additional stratiform snfl is doubtful
across this ptn of the Rgn. What we did to mitigate the low
potential of any lgt accumulating snfl across the N was to keep
a mention of sct sn shwrs into the eve, but 6 hrly snfl totals
ovr this ptn of the Rgn has been substantially lowered compared
to the beginning of the shift erly this morn.

Otherwise, all sn and and sn shwrs will taper to sct flurries
and end from W to E late tngt with at least partial clrg by
daybreak Thu with milder ovrngt lows than last ngt. Whats left
of llvl arctic air across Nrn ptns of the FA erly Thu morn will
already be retreating nwrd by Thu aftn allowing for fairly mild
aftn hi temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds across region Thursday night and Friday
with fair weather and near seasonal temperatures. Despite light
winds Thursday night, doesn`t look like ideal radiational
cooling conditions since we should begin to see increasing high
clouds later Thursday night. Low pressure will track east across
Quebec province Friday night drawing a warm front toward the
region. Expect increasing clouds with the chance of some light
snow across the far north and St. John Valley after midnight
Friday with the passage of the warm front. Outside of any early
morning light snow across the north, skies will be mainly
cloudy Saturday as a cold front crosses the region during the
afternoon. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will rise to above
normal levels before the passage of the front later Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A secondary cold front will begin to cross the region Saturday
night through Sunday. Expect partly to mainly cloudy skies
Saturday night and partly sunny skies on Sunday. Couldn`t rule
out some isolated snow showers across the far north with the
passage of the front. High pressure will begin to build in
Sunday night through Monday with continued fair weather and
cooler temperatures. Low pressure will approach on Tuesday with
the next chance of precipitation as low pressure tracks to our
northwest. Precipitation type still uncertain as there are
indications that a secondary low will develop. Just where this
secondary low develops will determine precipitation type. At
this time, looks as if precipitation will start as snow across
the region later Monday night and continue into Tuesday.
Depending on the where the secondary low develops, there could
be a mix or even a change to all rain, especially across down
east. Drier weather returns for late week. Temperatures by the
middle of next week will be a bit above average for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Nrn TAF sites will cont MVFR to low VFR tngt with
intermittent brief IFR vsbys in sn shwrs this eve...then become
all VFR on Thu. Downeast sites will cont IFR/LIFR in steady sn
into the eve then improve to MVFR in any remaining sn shwrs/
flurries in the ovrngt hrs then improve to VFR late tngt and
cont so on Thu.

SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday night through Friday night. IFR/MVFR is
possible across the far north well after midnight Friday through
early Saturday. Mainly VFR expected Saturday night through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain msly just below SCA
thresholds tngt and Thu. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS wv model blend
for fcst wv hts.

SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions are possible early Thursday
evening, otherwise no headlines expected through Friday. Small
craft conditions and possibly minimal gales can be expected
Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
     MEZ011-015-016-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for MEZ017-
     029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...VJN/Duda
Marine...VJN/Duda

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion