NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 172212
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will exit the region this evening. The coldest air
of the season arrives tonight and Thursday with another round
of strong winds. High pressure will cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update 6:10 PM: Have adjusted temperature, wind, and dew point
based on latest observations. No other changes.

The cold front features anomalously cold air aloft and low
freezing levels. Thus, additional thunderstorms and graupel will
be possible as it moves through late this afternoon. Precip
will taper off quickly behind the front this evening with the
exception of the Saint John Valley and upslope mountains along
the western international border. In these locations, a
transition to snow will occur this evening with a secondary
trough. Later in the night into Thursday morning, the cold upper
trough will cross and generate more snow showers in northern
Aroostook County. Amounts will be under an inch by Thursday
morning in the western Saint John Valley. In the northern half
of the forecast area, flurries will be possible with the cold
air advection Thursday morning. By daybreak Thursday,
temperatures will be at the freezing mark or less except along
the coast. These temperatures will be accompanied by a very
strong NW wind that has prompted a Wind Advisory for Thursday.
Wind chills on Thursday morning will range from the teens in
northern Aroostook County to the mid to upper 20s for Bangor and
the coast. The winds in a very well mixed layer to H850 will
gust to 45 mph. These wind speeds and the leaves remaining on
trees will make power outages a significant risk again on
Thursday for the entire forecast area. Temperatures won`t rise
too much on Thursday with the cold advection. The record low
high temperature at Bangor tomorrow is 39F. The forecast high is
just 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Thursday night with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies north and mostly clear skies Downeast.
A warm front will cross the region Friday with generally partly
cloudy skies across the forecast area, though could have the
slight chance of a rain shower along the Saint John Valley. A
cold front will approach the Saint Lawrence River Valley Friday
night. Cloud cover will increase across the region Friday night.
Could also have a chance of showers, particularly across
northern areas. The cold front will begin to cross the region
Saturday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
showers. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday,
with near normal level temperatures Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will cross the remainder of the region Saturday
night with a chance of rain showers in advance of the front.
Colder air in the wake of the front could allow any lingering
showers across the north and mountains to mix with, or
transition to, snow showers. An upper level trof will cross the
region Sunday with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a
chance of rain and snow showers across the north and mountains
with partly cloudy skies Downeast. The upper trof should exit to
the east Monday with generally partly cloudy skies across the
region. Low pressure should cross the region Tuesday, though the
exact track and timing are still uncertain. Expect a chance of
rain or showers with the low Tuesday, though rain amounts will
be dependent on the eventual track. Precipitation should then
taper to snow showers north, rain/snow showers Downeast, Tuesday
night. The low should exit across the Maritimes early
Wednesday, with high pressure building toward the region late.
Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies Wednesday, with the
chance of early rain/snow showers. Temperatures will be at below
normal levels Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions to develop for all terminals
by late afternoon except FVE and GNR where MVFR cigs tempo IFR
in snowshowers will occur into Thursday morning. Winds will be
the biggest aviation hazard...starting later tonight and
continuing all of Thursday. NW gusts will reach up to 40 kts at
all sites during Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Gusty northwest winds will persist early Thursday
night. VFR conditions are expected Thursday night through
early Friday night. MVFR conditions are then possible across the
north and mountains later Friday night. Occasional MVFR
conditions are possible across the region Saturday through early
Sunday. Conditions will improve to VFR levels Downeast later
Sunday, with occasional MVFR conditions still possible across
the north and mountains into Sunday night. Generally expect VFR
conditions Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning continues to be on track. Winds will
start increasing to gale strength this evening and continue
ramping up with maximum gusts around 40 kts Thursday morning.
These are NW winds and wind-driven seas will reach up to around
7 to 8 feet.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are expected early Thursday
night, with small craft advisory conditions later Thursday
night into early Friday. Small craft advisory conditions are
expected Friday night into Saturday. Visibilities could be
reduced in showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion