NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
761
FXUS61 KCAR 090653
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
153 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased confidence in occluded front and inverted trough
placement for Tuesday night into Wednesday
- Increased snow amounts slightly for Downeast for the mid-week
snow storm
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light to moderate snow likely early Wednesday morning, with
the best chance for snow Downeast. Snow could impact the
Wednesday morning commute.
2) Another round of snow possible Saturday across the north,
accompanied by warming temperatures lifting to at or above
freezing through the forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light to moderate snow likely early Wednesday morning, with the
best chance for snow Downeast. Snow could impact the Wednesday
morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An occluded low pressure system will move into the area Tuesday
night, with a trough of low pressure setting up from northwest
to southeast across the forecast area through the day on
Wednesday. This broad area of forcing will lead to the next
widespread chance for snowfall in the forecast area. Highest
snow totals will likely be confined to the Downeast region where
moisture is more available along this region of forcing. There
is increased confidence that the initial occluded low/occluded
front will bring snow to our area, particularly Downeast, and so
have brought in definite PoPs to the Bangor and Downeast areas
with likely elsewhere. The northern half of the forecast area,
and particularly up into the St John Valley, is least likely to
see much in the way of accumulating snow.
As the vorticity max aloft begins to exit the area late on
Wednesday, a surface inverted trough will likely linger behind
the departing low and extend up through the state into Wednesday
night. There is increased confidence in the existence of this
inverted trough, though the exact placement does still vary
slightly from run to run and model to model. Across the board,
there seems to be converging solutions placing the norlun trough
in southern Maine, just west of our forecast area. That said,
there are still many solutions that place the trough on the CWA
border or even centered over the Bangor area. A slight shift
within this 100 mile swath could be the difference maker for
what area sees 4 to 6 inches of snow versus only a couple of
inches total.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another round of snow possible Saturday across the north,
accompanied by warming temperatures lifting to at or above
freezing through the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A very strong 500 mb vorticity max originating over Newfoundland
through the middle of the week may retrograde through the end of
the week and dive back south over the forecast area this
weekend. This pattern could lead to enough instability for snow
showers, particularly across the northern half of the forecast
area. For the time being, it appears the limiting factor for
this system will be moisture availability, and current global
guidance suggests light QPF with this event, leading to light
snow totals. This low pressure system will have arctic
connections instead of tapping into the Gulf Stream, so this
will not help support stratiform moderate to heavy snowfall.
That said, steep low level lapse rates could combine with a
tighter pressure gradient aloft to generate convective snow
showers that may limit visibility or impact travel during the
day on Saturday. A warming trend is in store for behind this
low, with temperatures lifting above normal, and potentially
above freezing, across the entire forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through Tuesday. Temporary MVFR ceilings early this
morning at the Aroostook county terminals. NW wind today 10 to
20 kt with gusts to 30 kt at times this afternoon. NW wind 5 to
10 kt tonight through Tuesday.
Tuesday night - Wednesday: VFR early, tending towards MVFR/IFR
cigs from south to north in snow. Winds light and variable
overnight, becoming N at 5 to 10 kts Wednesday afternoon.
Wednesday night - Thursday night: Northern terminals will
quickly improve to VFR, while BGR/BHB may linger in MVFR/IFR in
lingering snow through Wednesday night before improving to
VFR/MVFR during the day on Thursday. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with a
few gusts to 20 kts possible.
Friday - Friday night: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to
10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning for the outer waters has been extended through
10 AM EST for frequent gusts of 35 kt. Winds will then decrease
to SCA levels this afternoon through Tuesday. The SCA for the
intra coastal zones remains in effect through 5 PM EST.
Wind gusts will increase towards 25 kts on the coastal waters
Wednesday night as a low pressure system deepens south of the
waters. These wind gusts could persist through the end of the
week. Seas will generally remain at or below 4 ft through the
rest of the week. Light freezing spray is possible early
Thursday morning on the intracoastal waters and then again
Friday morning across all waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
ANZ050>052.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TD
AVIATION...AES/TD
MARINE...AES/TD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
