NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
546
FXUS61 KCAR 042342
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
642 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation section for 0z TAFs
- Continued uncertainty in exact precipitation types Friday
night into Saturday, but total liquid accumulations should be
light.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow likely across far northern Maine tonight followed
by sharply colder temperatures Thursday.
2) Light mixed precipitation Friday night into Saturday,
potentially creating slick travel conditions.
3) Above normal temperatures dominate through next week, and
could lead to snow melt and river/lake ice rot.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow likely across far northern Maine
tonight followed by sharply colder temperatures Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A cold front boundary will sink south across the region tonight
and into Thursday morning. For tonight, as the sharp temp
boundary moves south, the surface temps in the north will drop
drastically, reaching below freezing after sunset. In addition,
high res QPF models show an area of snow showers moving across
the north with the frontal boundary. The question will be if
these snow showers will be able to overcome the dry boundary
layer tonight. Upper air model soundings show a very moist
column above the boundary layer, however, with dew points
dropping below zero, there is a chance that snow will not reach
the ground.
By Thursday, the front will sink towards the waters and snow
showers will end before sunrise. The 925mb model temps show a
slightly warmer layer hanging around the south, which will keep
temps in the 20s for the day. However, the north will only make
it into the teens for the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Light mixed precipitation Friday night into
Saturday, potentially creating slick travel conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Flow turns southerly Friday afternoon as a low passes well to
the south, bringing warmer air into the area. This starts to
erode cooler air in place, as a warm front brings increased
moisture out well ahead of an approaching cold front.
Precipitation moves into the area Friday night, mainly in the
north. There is still uncertainty in the forecast as far as
precip type and if there is enough moisture aloft to support
precip. Precip would be limited to the northern part of the
forecast area. Precip could start as light snow and transition
to a wintry mix and eventually to rain as temperatures rise as a
result of the southerly flow throughout the morning. There is a
chance for freezing rain and/or sleet, but any wintry or frozen
precip that does fall should melt quickly throughout the day on
Saturday as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s.
Precipitation will be generally light, with total liquid
accumulations of around 0.05 inches through Southern Aroostook
and the Central Highlands and up to about 0.15 inches northward.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal temperatures dominate through next
week, and could lead to snow melt and river/lake ice rot.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
After a surge of warm air starting Saturday, a weak cold front
passes the area Sunday morning bringing rain and chances of snow
mixing in in the north. Temps rebound throughout the day on
Sunday getting up to low 40s north and upper 40s to the south as
a ridge pushes into the area. Southerly flow continues Monday
and Tuesday keeping the warming trend going, getting into the
mid to upper 50s. Nightly temperatures will generally only get
down to near freezing from Saturday night through at least
Wednesday, though some areas in the north could see upper 20s
over this period. Warm daytime temperatures could lead to snow
melt and ice rot with only near freezing lows limiting
refreezing.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight to Thu Night...This evening, a cold front is moving
south through the area. At 2330z, the front just passed FVE,
will reach CAR/PQI around 2z, HUL around 4z, and BGR/BHB around
10/11z. Winds switch abruptly from W/SW 5-10 kts ahead of the
front to N/NW 10-15 kts behind the front. VFR ahead of the front
will generally become MVFR due to ceilings just behind the
front, likely at all TAF sites. Light snow is expected at FVE
just behind the front as well, and light snow is possible at
CAR/PQI, but not expected at HUL/BGR/BHB. Later tonight northern
sites FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL should improve to VFR, and if not by late
tonight, will likely be VFR by 14z Thursday. However, now think
that southern sites BGR/BHB will likely stay with an MVFR
ceiling through about 21z-0z, and if not MVFR, just barely VFR.
During the day Thursday, look for a N wind around 10 kts.
Thursday night, most areas should be VFR, but can`t rule out
MVFR at BHB/BGR.
Fri...VFR/MVFR. Light E winds become SE at 5 to 10 kts.
Fri night - Sat...MVFR/IFR. Wintry mix possible overnight
through early Saturday morning, becoming rain through the day on
Saturday. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight becoming S at 10 to
15 kts gusting to 25 kts on Saturday.
Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals. Winds shift W winds
5 to 10 kts.
Mon...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Thursday through
Thursday night for gusty winds and seas 4-6 ft.
Small craft advisory criteria will likely be met Thursday night
through the day on Friday with WNW winds gusting 25 to 30 kts,
especially over the coastal waters. Warming temperatures through
this time will limit the threat for freezing spray. Snow could
move in over the waters on Friday, likely switching to rain
Friday night into Saturday and potentially limiting visibility
over this time. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday into
Saturday night behind a cold front. Temperatures will remain
mild enough through the weekend for no freezing spray threat at
that time.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/JMM
AVIATION...TF/ARL/JMM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
