NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KCAR 271020
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region through Sunday. A warm
front will cross the region Sunday. A cold front will cross the
region later Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure will
approach from the west Tuesday and track south of the Gulf of
Maine into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Another chilly late April morning with current temperatures at
this hour ranging from the lower 20s to around 30 degrees under
clear skies. Just minor adjustments to hourly temps and dew
points.
previous discussion
Mid and upper level ridge will build across the region today as
surface high drifts east. Abundant sunshine is expected once
again today, although we will start to see some increasing high
level clouds by later this afternoon. High temperatures this
afternoon will climb to around 60 degrees across much of the
region away from the coast. Dry weather is expected to continue
tonight as the mid and upper level ridge begins to break down in
advance of a weak warm front. Expect mainly clear skies this
evening to be followed by increasing high and mid level clouds
tonight. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 30s
across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday morning likely to see area between departing hipres and
approaching cold front at the sfc. Aloft upr ridge axis will be
centered over the region and should slow progression of any showers
in the morning before approaching wave begins to flatten the ridge
and showers move into the region by 18z, from about the Baxter
Region northward. Southerly winds will bring warm temps for all but
the immediate coast with inland areas climbing into the 60s and
coastal regions stuck in the mid-40s.
Front will approach fm the northwest Sunday evening with fropa
occurring across the north after 06z, central areas by 09z and
offshore by 12z. Spotty showers are expected with boundary, though
most areas should remain dry. Temps will drop into the 30s over the
North Woods by morning but remain in the l/m 40s over Downeast.
Dry Canadian high pressure will begin to build in on Monday with
gusty nw winds expected. Have undercut dwpts on Monday afternoon
given the dry airmass and have blended in the 10th percentile of the
NBM with CONSMOS for the afternoon and evening hours. Min relative
humidity values Monday afternoon will drop to around 35% but may be
need to lower these in the coming days. Highs across the north will
be near normal with southern areas above normal in offshore flow.
Ridge axis will be square over the region Monday night keeping us
precip-free during the overnight hours. Given dry airmass and mostly
clear skies initially temps should be able to drop to near freezing
across the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Middle of the week should remain mainly precip-free with the
exception of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as potential
sfc low slides off of the srn New England coast. Operational
runs of EC and CMC indicate this potential impacting Downeast
with rain while GFS is too strong with sfc high to move much in
the way of measurable rainfall onto the coast. Ensemble runs at
both the sfc and aloft wash out any significant features and
have lowered pops for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wednesday night will see upr ridge crest over the area with next in
a series of subtle s/wvs drifting acrs the area thru the end of the
week. Temps on Thu and Fri will climb into the 60s for inland
areas
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. Light and variable wind this
morning, becoming light S to SE late today and tonight.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Light showers for northern terminals. S 5-15kts
with gusts to 20kts.
Sunday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. NW 5-15 kts with gusts to 25kts
Monday afternoon.
Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR north, MVFR south with light rain
showers possible. N 5-10kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight.
SHORT TERM: Seas and winds below small craft conditions through
the middle part of next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
