NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
269
FXUS61 KCAR 021921
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low tracks north through the western Maritimes though
tonight. Canadian high pressure slowly builds in from the west
Saturday through Monday, meanwhile a weak low passes well to the
south Saturday night and Sunday. The high exits to the east
Monday night, followed by another weak low passing to the south
on Tuesday. Another low moves over the state on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
* Frigid air remains in place through the near term, with very
cold wind chills tonight to 30 below zero
Discussion:
High pressure continues to build into the area, with clear skies
over most of the forecast area this evening. Lingering snow
showers over the far northern portion of the CWA will continue
to slowly exit to the north, leading to clearing skies through
the St. John Valley as well. Clear skies will persist through
the night, along with breezy winds. These winds are the result
of cold air rushing into the area behind the recent low pressure
departure, and lows tonight may fall to around 10 below zero in
the north, and around zero in the Bangor region. Coupled with
the winds, wind chills could fall to 25 to 30 below zero across
the north, and a Cold Weather Advisory is in place for the north
tonight into early Saturday morning.
Cold air will continue to hang around through the day on
Saturday with temperatures only lifting into the single digits
above zero. For Saturday night, increasing cloud cover north of
a shortwave that will be ducking just south of the forecast area
will limit how much can radiationally cool overnight, though
winds will be much lighter at that point. Still, arctic air in
place will allow for temperatures to drop below zero throughout
the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
-Very cold airmass bringing temps well below normal Sunday
through Monday.
A large upper level trof with continue NW flow should pipe down
arctic air to the surface. The 925mb model temps continue to
show around -22C in the north and -16C in the south. Thus,
Sunday high temps should be in the single digits in the north
and teens in the south. The major concern is the wind chill
values for Sunday night. Models show the trof digging deeper
into the state, causing colder temps to reach the coast. This
coupled with the mostly clear skies and calming winds should
allow for ample decoupling. Temps are expected to reach into the
teens below zero in the north and single digits below zero in
the south. Though WNW winds should be light, gusts up to 15 mph
is expected to drop wind chills in the 20s below zero in the
north and teens below zero in the south. By Monday, clearing
skies and the surface ridge moving in should gradually warm
temps into the single digits above zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages
-Warming trend by midweek.
-Strong model uncertainty for the Wednesday system.
Models favor an upper level ridge moving into New England at
the beginning of the week, making for a fairly inactive pattern.
Though cannot rule out a few shortwaves moving cross the region
creating snow showers with minimal impact. By Wednesday, upper
level models show a weak trof developing. This could develop
into a closed surface low by Wednesday afternoon. GFS and Euro
ensemble mean seems to favor the center of the low moving over
the region. If this plays out then a mixed precip event is
possible with a warming trend through the rest of the week. The
Canadian ensemble mean favors a north track of the low, making
for a snow event with little accumulation and cooler temps. The
probabilities still give a wide enough range to give little
confidence in the track of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue for most terminals tonight
through Saturday under mostly clear skies. MVFR/IFR continues to
hang on across KCAR/KFVE through late this afternoon in
lingering snow showers before this band of cloud cover lifts
north, allowing for conditions to improve to VFR for tonight.
Winds may remain gusty into the overnight hours, with nocturnal
LLWS developing in any areas which are able to fully decouple. W
winds 5 to 10 kts overnight with gusts to 20 kts at terminals
where surface decoupling does not take place, W LLWS around 40
kts if decoupling does occur. W winds 5 to 10 kts continue
Saturday with a return of gusts to 20 kts before winds become
light and variable Saturday night. Cigs may begin to decrease
late Saturday night at KGNR/KBGR with -SHSN.
SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR. Variable winds around 5 kts.
Sun night-Mon night...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.
Tuesday...VFR north, VFR/MVFR south in snow showers. Light and
variable winds.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in snow north and rain south. Variable
winds 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gales continue through the late afternoon on the
coastal waters before winds decrease below 35 kts into the
overnight hours. Moderate freezing spray is likely over all
waters overnight tonight. Seas will remain 3 to
6 ft until late on Saturday when they finally dip below 5 ft on
the coastal waters.
SHORT TERM: Winds should reach SCA levels Sun night to Mon
morning. Then winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Mon
afternoon through the rest of the period.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Saturday for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
