NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
961
FXUS61 KCAR 142330
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
730 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Cancelled the remaining winter weather advisories
-Updated aviation section to reflect 0Z TAFs
previous
-Extended Small Craft Advisory on all waters until Noon on
Sunday.
-Increased confidence in strong storm Monday - Tuesday morning,
with flooding threat and strong winds.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wintry mix late Sunday night into early Monday morning
across the North could impact the Monday morning commute.
2) A strong storm Monday into Tuesday will bring high winds and
heavy rain, creating potential for scattered power outages and
flooding.
3) Strong winds will generate high seas which could lead to
wave runup and coastal flooding impacts, particularly if timing
lines up with tidal surges.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wintry mix late Sunday night into early Monday morning across
the North could impact the Monday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The approach of a surface to 850 mb warm front and some weak
vorticity advection at 700 mb could bring some light snow
changing to a wintry mix, mainly across the North from Sunday
night, with most precipitation falling after midnight, into
early Monday morning. With a strong low to the west and a well
defined ridge shifting east of the area, the forecast area will
be in the prime synoptic location for the development of cold
air damming. Strong 850 mb SW winds will advect warm air aloft
while SE winds near the surface act to trap the previously
cooler air to the Longfellows. What is in our favor with this
system is the previous air mass is not arctic in nature, and
will not be quite cold enough to sustain the CAD setup, becoming
easily eroded into the day on Monday. Still, this pattern may
result in a couple hours of freezing rain and/or sleet due to a
strong surface inversion ending in a warm nose aloft.
Could see an inch or snow and up to around a tenth of an inch
of ice north of the Bangor and Interior Downeast regions. This
could impact the Monday morning commute with potentially slick
surfaces.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong storm Monday into Tuesday will bring high winds and
heavy rain, creating potential for scattered power outages and
flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A strong occluding low pressure system will continue to
approach from the west on Monday, with the forecast area in the
warm sector Monday into Monday night prior to a strong frontal
passage late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Rain:
- Deep moisture will advect into the forecast area on Monday
with southerly flow and a strengthening LLJ. PWATs could surge
towards well over 1 inch by Monday night with this event,
which is 5 standard deviations above normal. To put this
extreme moisture surge in perspective, the daily record 00z
March 17 PWAT sample from KCAR is 0.83 inches, with forecast
PWATs potentially being half an inch of additional moisture
into a relatively cool air mass. With strong forcing spanning
from the approaching low pressure system, this will likely
result in moderate to heavy rainfall across the forecast area,
with highest precip totals being across the Downeast region,
where storm total rain amounts could exceed 2 inches.
Hydro:
- Combined with warm temperatures lifting into the 50s through
this time, the Downeast snow pack will quickly melt. All this
water and snow melt could result urban and small stream
flooding, especially Downeast. The snow pack in the north is
better able to absorb the rain, and expected rain totals are
less in the northern half of the forecast area. However, rain
combined with what snow melt does occur in the north could
also lead to localized ponding. Ice rot is likely in the
north, while ice movement is quite possible Downeast, such as
along the Penobscot.
Winds:
- The strong LLJ projected with this system could reach 3 to 4
standard deviations above normal for 850 mb, and could see
sustained winds as strong as 70 kts at this level. Rain Monday
afternoon through Monday night will mix these higher winds
towards the surface, with gusts reaching 35 to 45 mph. The
strongest gusts could convectively occur along the FROPA early
Tuesday morning, with an extra source of forcing and
tightening of the pressure gradient. Strong southerly winds
combined with the thawing ground could result in scattered
power outages.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Strong winds will generate high seas which could lead to wave
runup and coastal flooding impacts, particularly if timing lines
up with tidal surges.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low level jet looks to kick in on Monday morning between
55-70kts over the waters. As pressure gradient tightens, sfc
winds range from 30-35 kts Monday afternoon with an increase in
sustained speeds between 35-40kts on Monday night. These will
gradually shift toward the southwest Tuesday morning and drop
back down toward 30kts on Tuesday afternoon.
High tide times will be around 9:30 am Monday morning, 10 pm Monday
night and 10:30 am Tuesday morning. Winds, seas and storm surge will
be gradually increasing around the time of high tide on Monday
morning with wave heights near the shoreline between 4-8 feet. At
the next high tide, storm surge will be increasing but not at it/s
max. Probabilistic storm surge (PETSS) ranges from 0.8 to 1.3 feet
during this timeframe with the PETSS50 around 1.0 feet. As it stands
now, total water level is being run on a storm surge of between 0.5
to 0.8 feet so may see water levels go up as we get more confident
on the surge, and an increase on coastal flood potential.
Storm surge looks to be maximized between the high and low tide on
Monday night. Wave heights progged to range from 12-16 feet along
the shoreline with periods of 9-10 seconds. Any minor adjustment to
storm surge, seas and southerly wind gusts will make the difference
between overwash on exposed coastal roads and significant coastal
flooding. Will keep an eye on the potential over the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR with occasional IFR in
scattered snow showers early, becoming VFR after 07Z. NW to N
wind 5 to 10 kt.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR, except brief MVFR or lower possible vcnty KBGR
02z-05z. NW to N wind 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday...VFR all terminals. N to NW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming S
in the afternoon
Sunday night...Becoming MVFR or lower at southern terminals and
IFR or lower at northern terminals. SE winds G20-25KT possible
at northern terminals and LLWS likely at southern terminals
after midnight.
Mon - Tues morning: IFR/LIFR, with VLIFR at times, particularly
at KBGR/KBHB. Locally heavy rain probable, -TSRA possible. LLWS
likely. SE winds 15 to 20 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts, with brief
gusts 40 to 45 kts possible in any stronger convection Tuesday
morning.
Tue afternoon: Becoming VFR. WSW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 25
to 30 kts.
Tue night - Wed: VFR. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 20 kts.
Wed night - Thurs: VFR early, becoming MVFR particularly at
northern terminals in -SN. Winds light and variable shifting S
at around 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions should last through Sunday morning, so have
extended the SCA on all waters through then. We could then see a
lull with sub-SCA conditions Sunday afternoon and evening,
before SCA conditions return to all waters late Sunday night,
with gales possible late.
Strong gale conditions are likely Monday through Tuesday, with
highest winds overnight Monday night that could approach storm
strength. Seas 6 to 9 ft on Monday will increase into Monday
night, becoming 13 to 20 ft by Tuesday morning. Winds and seas
will then gradually improve through the middle of the week.
Rain, heavy at times, Monday through Monday night, with
lightning possible.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/21/TWD/PM
AVIATION...ASB/TWD/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
