NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
098
FXUS61 KCAR 260631
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
131 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-introduced slight chance of snow showers/snow squall late
Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will approach on Saturday bringing strong south
winds ahead of it and some rain and snow showers. There will be
a chance for additional snow showers and isolated snow squalls
as a secondary Arctic front pushes in late Saturday afternoon or
Saturday evening. This could result in poor visibility and
slippery conditions.
2) Bitter cold Arctic air will surge into the region Saturday night
into Sunday bringing frigid temperatures and wind chills to begin
the week next week. The coldest weather will be Sunday night
bringing a risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will approach on Saturday bringing
strong south winds ahead of it and some rain and snow showers. There
will be a chance for additional snow showers and isolated snow
squalls as a secondary Arctic front pushes in late Saturday
afternoon or Saturday evening. This could result in poor visibility
and slippery conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
As a strong cold front approaches on Saturday, the gradient between
the front and high pressure off to the east will bring a strong
south wind across the region. South winds up to 25 mph with gusts to
40 mph are possible. The south winds will advect warmer air into the
region with highs near 40 across much of the area. Rain and snow
showers will push across the area ahead of the front early Saturday
afternoon.
The cold front may come through in two parts with the initial front
coming through early Saturday afternoon followed by a secondary
Arctic cold front coming through late Saturday afternoon or Saturday
evening. Soundings are showing steep lapse rates and even some
narrow CAPE up to 7K ft. The combination of instability and frontal
convergence will bring a chance for snow showers and possibly
isolated snow squalls late Saturday or Saturday evening. Strong
gusty winds mixing down followed by abruptly falling temperatures
behind the Arctic front will introduce the risk that any squalls may
produce poor visibility in blowing snow followed by wet surfaces
freezing as much colder air surges in. Forecast models are not
agreeing on the timing of the front, late afternoon or evening, but
they are agreeing that there will be a period of instability as the
front pushes in.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Bitter cold Arctic air will surge into the region
Saturday night into Sunday bringing frigid temperatures and wind
chills to begin the week next week. The coldest weather will be
Sunday night bringing a risk of hypothermia and frostbite.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Colder Arctic air will overspread the region overnight Saturday
night into Sunday. There is a chance that a shallow and fast moving
wave of low pressure could bring a period of light snow on Sunday
with the best chances across the south. Otherwise, Sunday will be
much colder with highs from the low teens north to the upper 20s
Downeast which will result in highs being around 15 degrees colder
than normal north and 10 degrees colder than normal Downeast. Wind
chills midday Sunday will range from around zero north to the upper
teens Downeast.
The coldest temperatures will likely come Sunday night as Arctic
high pressure presses in from the west. Lows by Monday morning will
range from the mid teens below northwest to near zero over interior
Downeast. There is some uncertainty whether the high will build over
enough to allow winds to calm and the air to decouple. The GFS
suggests this is a possibility while the ECMWF maintains a bit of a
northwesterly gradient overnight. If the air does decouple, we can`t
rule out a few northern valleys getting close to 20 below by dawn on
Monday. Wind chills early Monday morning are expected to range from
the mid 20s below north to the low teens below interior Downeast.
Monday will be bitter cold with highs from near 10 over the far
north to around 20 Downeast and wind chills from around zero north
to the upper single digits Downeast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Today...MVFR/IFR this morning at terminals with BCFG possible
until sunrise. Expect Downeast terminals improve to VFR around
10z with Aroostook terminals remaining MVFR cigs through 18z
before improving to VFR. Light winds become southwesterly
5-15kts this afternoon.
Friday...VFR. SW wind around 5 kt.
Friday night...VFR lowering to IFR over the south during the evening
and IFR over the north late. S wind increasing to around 10 kt.
Saturday...IFR. S wind around 15 kt gusting up to 30 kt. SW wind
shear around 2K ft.
Saturday night...IFR improving to MVFR. winds becoming NW 5 to 10
kt.
Sunday...MVFR south, VFR to MVFR north. NW wind around 10 kt.
Sunday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.
Monday...VFR. W wind 5 to 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue over the outer waters today with winds
gusting to near 30kts this afternoon following frontal passage.
Seas will remain above 5ft throughout the day before diminishing
this evening. Winds and seas look to remain small craft levels
through the day on Friday. Light freezing spray develops over
the waters on Friday morning.
A SCA will be needed late Friday night through Saturday for S winds
gusting up to 30 kt. A few gusts to 35 kt will be possible Saturday
morning. Another SCA and possibly a gale will be needed Sunday into
Monday for N winds gusting 30 kt or higher. Moderate freezing
spray is likely Sunday night into Monday morning. Seas will
build up to 6 ft Friday night then 7 ft Saturday in response to
the southerly. Seas will drop back to 4 ft Saturday night and
remain below 4 ft into early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
