NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
481
FXUS61 KCAR 231907
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
307 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- High temperatures on Thursday have trended warmer, due to
slower timing of the cold front. As a result, there is now a much
larger area now expected to become all rain or a rain/snow
mix.
- Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal
waters through 2 AM.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather pattern for mid to late week with multiple
precipitation chances, below normal temperatures and the
potential to impact travel.
2) Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to spread
across the region next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern for mid to late week
with multiple precipitation chances, below normal temperatures
and the potential to impact travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An active pattern, means we are in a fast flow aloft. In
general, models do not handle systems as well in a fast moving
pattern. As expected there is a bit of a model spread in terms
of timing/strength of individual systems.
The timing differences start on Wednesday, with the GFS the
fastest to bring in/end precipitation, while the ECMWF/CMC
Global/NAM/CMC Regional all hold off the bulk of the
precipitation until Wednesday night and continues into
Thursday. For now, viewing the GFS as an outlier. Based on this,
expect a northern stream shortwave to approach Wednesday
afternoon, bringing initially some isolated to scattered snow
showers to the north.
This shortwave is quickly followed by 1-2 more shortwaves,
allowing for stronger forcing and some weak low level warm
advection. At the surface, a cold front approaches Wednesday
night, then pushes south through the region Thursday.
The result should be widespread light snow developing
across the North Wednesday evening, then pressing down into the
Upper Penobscot Valley and interior portions of Downeast Maine,
and possibly into the Bangor region, with a rain/snow mix
elsewhere across interior Downeast, and rain across coastal
Downeast Maine. The rain/snow line then pushes north during the
day on Thursday with Downeast Maine, the Bangor/Penobscot Region
and southern portions of the Central highlands changing to all
rain, with a rain/snow mix further north. Maybe the St John`s
Valley and parts of NW Aroostook stay all snow. The result
should be 1-3" of snow across most of the North, with highest
amounts over the St John Valley and portions of NW Aroostook,
with less than an inch elsewhere, including little or now
accumulation over coastal Downeast. This could cause some
impacts to the Thursday morning commute across the North, Upper
Penobscot Valley and northern Washington County. The Saint John
Valley and portions of NW Aroostook could also see some impacts
to the Thursday afternoon commute as well.
Another northern stream shortwave approaches Thursday night,
then crosses the area on Friday. At the surface, this results
in a wave of low pressure developing Thursday night along the
cold front that passed to the south on Thursday, then passing
somewhere in the vicinity of Maine on Friday. The solutions
range from over the Gulf of Maine to going across northern
Maine. These differences mean a spread of significant weather
from moderate to possible heavy snow across the northern 2/3 of
Maine (gulf of Maine track) to mainly rain (low track across
northern Maine). All models agree that any precipitation should
come to an end by early Friday evening, as the surface low
pushes into the Maritime and a strong cold front pushes well to
the south. At this time, there is too much uncertainty to
specify what, if any impacts will be had to Northern and
Eastern Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing probability of modified Arctic air
to spread across the region this weekend helping limit ongoing
river ice decay.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Canadian high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday, then
to the south Saturday night and Sunday. This will allow for lows
Friday night/Saturday morning to fall down into the negative
single digits across Northern Aroostook, Somerset, Piscataquis
and Penobscot counties. And from around 0 to 10 above
elsewhere. Wind chills should range from 10 to 20 below across
northern Aroostook, Somerset, Piscataquis and Penobscot
Counties, 0 to 5 above over coastal Downeast and 0 to 10 below
elsewhere. In the zone with wind chills of 10-20 below zero,
frostbite could be caused on exposed skin in 30-60 minutes, so
make plans to minimize your time outside Friday night. Highs on
Saturday only rebound to from around 20 to around 30 - about
15-20 degrees below normal. With the high pushing to the south
Saturday night, lows should be in the single digits to around 10
across the North and teens to around 20 elsewhere. While still
below normal, this is 10-15 degrees warmer than Friday night.
Highs on Sunday should be around 5 degrees below normal, as the
air mass continues to modify.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...VFR/MVFR with isolated to scattered
snow showers. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
around 20 knots.
Tonight...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR. Isolated to
scattered snow showers early. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR
with isolated to scattered snow showers early. VFR late.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest.
Tuesday...VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
west/southwest.
Tuesday night...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible across
northern areas late with a slight chance of snow showers.
Southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest/west.
Wednesday: VFR with MVFR possible in any stronger snow showers
across the North. W winds G15-20KT possible.
Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower probable. LLWS possible
at southern terminals Wednesday night. S-SSW winds G152-25KT
possible Thursday.
Thursday night-Friday: MVFR or lower possible, become VFR
throughout by late Friday. LLWS possible Thursday night. Winds
becoming northwest G15-30kt Friday.
Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-25KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the waters, with
the exception of the intra-coastal waters, til 8 PM this
evening. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected
through the remainder of the night into Tuesday night. On the
intra-coastal waters, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended
til 2 AM Tuesday. A few wind gusts could approach small craft
advisory levels early Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to be below small craft advisory levels on the
intra-coastal waters Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Isolated/scattered snow showers early tonight.
SCA conditions are likely on the coastal ocean waters and
probable on the intra-coastal waters Wednesday-Thursdsay. Gales
area probable on the coastal ocean waters Thursday night-Friday
night with SCA conditions likely on the coastal ocean waters.
Saturday should see SCA conditions to start on the coastal ocean
waters with sub-SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PM/CN
AVIATION...PM/CN
MARINE...PM/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
