NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
739
FXUS61 KCAR 302030
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
430 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the southwest tonight, crosses
Maine from southwest to northeast Friday, then exits into the
Maritimes Friday night and Saturday. High pressure builds over
the area Saturday night through Sunday night. A warm front lifts
to the north on Monday, followed by a cold front crossing the
area Monday night. Low pressure slowly moves to the northeast
through the Maritimes on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update..
See updated marine section.
Previous discussion
The large occluded low will continue to move into the region
this evening and tonight. High res model QPF and simulated
reflectivity have been fair consistent with the progress of the
rain. Decided to use the CAMs to enhance the weather forecast
for this evening. For tonight, the majority of the rainfall for
the south will move in after midnight. E winds will increase
tonight with the progression of the boundary and LLJ bringing
gusts up to 35 mph by sunrise on Friday. For Friday, the
occlusion will move through the region pushing the higher rain
amounts into the north especially in the morning. Gust E winds
will decrease in the morning as the center of the low passes
through the center of the state. Winds will then switch to SW
flow and increase again for the evening. Temps will be in the
50s for the day. For Friday night, rain showers will start to
decrease early with the exiting low, but rain showers quickly
return with the wrap around moisture. These rain showers will be
light and become more scattered after midnight. WSW winds will
increase and become gusty throughout the night. Temps will reach
into the low 40s with the well mixed boundary layer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cutoff low exits through the Maritimes Saturday. This will
result in likely showers across the Crown of Maine and the
western border region, with isolated to scattered showers
elsewhere. The rain showers could mix with snow showers over the
higher elevations near the western border with Quebec. In
addition should see wind gusts of 30-40 mph on a northwest
flow. At this time expect winds to remain below wind advisory
criteria. Highs on Saturday should be near normal.
Northern stream ridging crests over the area Saturday night,
except for possibly some lingering showers early across the
Crown of Maine. Lows Saturday night should be near normal.
A northern stream trough approaches from the west Sunday. There
could be some isolated to scattered rain showers across mainly
northern Aroostook as a result. Highs Sunday should be near to
slightly below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There should be split flow over the region Sunday night, with
northern stream shortwave ridging passing to the north and a
northern stream shortwave trough moving into southern New
England. There should be sufficient subsidence with the ridging
to preclude any precipitation, but there should be some cloud
cover.
A northern stream trough approaches Monday then crosses the
region Monday night. The result should be numerous to widespread
showers Monday followed by mainly scattered showers Monday
night.
The region is under WNW-NW flow aloft with some embedded
shortwaves from Tuesday into Wednesday, with some isolated to
scattered showers as a result. The showers could mix with rain
over the higher elevations on Tuesday, then possibly change to
all snow showers over the North Woods Tuesday night. There could
be some isolated showers, manly Wednesday morning as the system
exits.
A deepening northern stream trough approaches Wednesday night
begins to cross Maine as it begins to close off Thursday night.
The result is a chance of some snow across the North Wednesday
night, with rain further south, changing to all rain on
Thursday, except for a rain/snow mix at higher elevations
(possibly remaining all snow across Katahdin). There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing, strength and
track of this system, so there is a reasonable expectation for
this forecast to change - hence making any potential impacts
unpredictable at this time.
Temperatures should be below normal Sunday night, then near
to slightly above normal Monday-Wednesday, then below normal
Wednesday night-Thursday. Confidence in the temperature forecast
for Wednesday night and Thursday is less than normal at this
time range.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions this evening for all terminals. By
tonight, all terminals cigs will drop to IFR/LIFR in rain. This
will continue into Friday with LLWS for all terminals by early
morning. By Friday night, terminals should improve to MVFR
conditions. E winds 10-15 kts tonight. Friday, E winds in the
morning decrease to light and variable in the afternoon, then
become WSW 5-15 kts by evening. Friday night, W winds 10-20 kts
with gusts up to 30 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR northern terminals, VFR
elsewhere, becoming VFR throughout late Saturday night. NW winds
G25-35kt Saturday into Saturday evening, with gusts diminish to
15-25KT by late Saturday night.
Sunday...MVFR possible at northern terminals, otherwise VFR.
Sunday night...VFR.
Monday-Monday night...MVFR or lower possible, with best chance
for any IFR at northern terminals. LLWS possible Monday night.
Tuesday...MVFR possible at northern terminals, VFR elsewhere.
NW winds G15-25KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale warning is now in effect from 2 AM Friday
through Saturday evening.
East winds will gradually increase to 20 to 25 kt tonight with
gusts up to 35 kt late tonight through Friday. Wind becoming
Southwest to West 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt Friday
night through Saturday, with highest winds across the outermost
waters. Seas will build to 3 to 6 ft late tonight, 5 to 9 ft
Friday, and then 9 to 14 ft Saturday, highest waves across the
outerwaters.
Rain will reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM at times tonight
through Friday.
SHORT TERM: Gale warning for all waters from Saturday into
Saturday evening, with winds diminishing to SCA levels late
Saturday night. Sub SCA conditions are forecast on all waters
Sunday-Monday. SCA conditions are then possible on the coastal
ocean waters Monday night and on all waters Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/ARL
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...TWD/ARL/PM
Marine...TWD/ARL/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
