NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 161514
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move to the east today. Low pressure is
expected to move across the outer waters of the Gulf of Maine on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM Update...
No significant changes to this afternoon`s forecast as current
forecast max temps still look good. The bigger concern will be
later tonight and Monday as low pressure from the mid-atlantic
moves northeast with snow expected to overspread Downeast areas,
including the greater Bangor region, after midnight. Will be
addressing the need for winter weather advisories for portions
of northern and Downeast Maine late tonight and Monday with the
afternoon update.

previous discussion
Strong high pressure will crest over the region today then move
to the east tonight. Low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic States
will move northeast today then across the other portion of the
Gulf of Maine tonight. Today will start sunny with clouds
spreading across the area later this afternoon into the evening
ahead of the low. Expect this system to spread precipitation
into Coastal and Interior Downeast areas Tonight. The
precipitation is expected to start as rain and sleet then change
to snow in all areas except the immediate coast where just rain
is expected. For precipitation type have used the top down tool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Mon morning coastal low wl hv dvlpd and wl be located south of
the Gulf of Maine. H5 low wl be opening up as it heads south of Nova
Scotia drg the day. By 12z Mon expect that steady pcpn wl be
impacting Downeast and mvg to the north. Steady snow looks to mv
into far north shortly aft 15z Mon as sfc ridge, thus dry air,
begins to lose it`s grip.

All but the coast wl see light snow Mon morning before mix begins to
creep inland in the aftn. A snow/sleet/rain mix looks to mv as far
north as a Bangor-Calais line drg the day bfr colder air is pulled
in on north flow as low mvs east.

By Mon night coastal low wl be pulling into the Canadian Maritimes
with lgt snow contg acrs far ern sxns bfr winding down by Tue
morning. Storm total snowfall looks to range fm 2-5 inches thru Tue
morning. Winds will gust upwards of 30 mph on Tue with blowing snow
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in bhnd system and effects area`s wx thru
Thursday. Deep trof wl be mvg into the Great Lakes my weeek`s end
with sfc low heading up to our west. Expect that snow wl start
across the area Fri morning before becoming all rain in the
afternoon, contg into Fri night. Temps wl rise to abv normal on Fri
and Sat with highs ovr the north in the m/u30s and in the l40s ovr
srn areas.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today then MVFR/IFR
conditions tonight.

SHORT TERM: IFR expected for all terminals thru Mon night in
light snow. MVFR/VFR on Tuesday under stratocu and lgt snow
showers or flurries with VFR expected remainder of the period.
NW winds will gust to 20-30kts Tue into Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds. For Waves:
Currently the primary wave system is a longer period
southeasterly swell around 2 feet/8-9 seconds accompanied by a
northerly off-shore wind wave. Later today into tonight an east
northeasterly wind wave will become the primary wave system
building to around 8 feet/8-9 seconds by morning. Total Water
Level: Surge guidance expects half foot surge tonight as low
center passes across outer portion of the Gulf of Maine. Expect
this is a little low so will increase the Base Tide Anomaly to
+0.50 tonight. Surge guidance also expects 1 foot negative surge
Tuesday as strong off-shore winds develop. Expect a half foot
negative surge is more reasonable so will keep the Base Tide
Anomaly at +0.50 to compensate for this into Wednesday then
slowly reduce the anomaly.

SHORT TERM: SCA at the start of the period with winds dropping
blo 25kts Mon aftn. Winds increase again Mon evng with next low
pressure system moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Gale force
winds will be likely behind this system late Mon night thru Tue
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Duda/Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Duda/Mignone/Farrar

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion