NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
681
FXUS61 KCAR 162226
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
626 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Issued coastal flood statement for tonights and Tuesday
mornings high tide.
-Wind advisory issued for northern Washington, central
Penobscot, and southeast Aroostook Counties
-Wind advisory has now been issued for Northeastern Aroostook
County for early Tuesday morning.
-Slight increases in winds tonight through Tuesday
-Decrease in rainfall amounts across northern Maine
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to damaging winds are likely along the Downeast coast
and interior Downeast areas, including the Bangor region,
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Gusty winds are possible
across the remainder of the forecast area through Tuesday.
Scattered to widespread power outages are possible across Downeast
areas, including the Bangor region. Isolated power outages are
possible across the remainder of the forecast area.
2) Snowmelt and 1 to 3 inches of rain through Tuesday morning
may lead to ice jams and poor drainage flooding, mainly south of
Baxter State Park and Houlton.
3) Strong southerly winds will generate high seas which should
cause minor overwash and possibly localized beach erosion with
the high tides tonight and Tuesday morning.
4) A series of weak systems are forecast to pass near the area
from late Thursday through Monday. These could bring light to
possibly moderate snow to the region, possibly impacting
travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong to damaging winds are likely along the
Downeast coast and interior Downeast areas, including the Bangor
region, tonight into early Tuesday morning. Gusty winds are
possible across the remainder of the forecast area through
Tuesday. Scattered to widespread power outages are possible
across Downeast areas, including the Bangor region. Isolated
power outages are possible across the remainder of the forecast
area.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Enhanced shortwave energy will round the base of an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes this evening, becoming negatively
tilted and leading to an already strong 980mb low rapidly
intensifying overnight to below 960mb by Tuesday morning across
Quebec. This added energy will send a secondary surge of
southerly winds with an intensifying low level jet (LLJ),
especially after 3z. The latest projections for this low level
jet are generally between 90 and 100 kts at peak intensity below
850mb. Other local rule of thumbs based on local research
easily exceed warning thresholds for the coast. Similar events
have produced scattered to widespread power outages and tree
damage across Downeast Maine. A High Wind Warning is in effect
for all of the Bangor area and Downeast Maine, where wind gusts
to around 60mph are forecast. Thawing, wet ground may further
exacerbate tree damage. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
areas just to the north along I-95 through southeast Aroostook
County, where wind gusts to 50 mph are possible late tonight.
Wind gusts decrease with northern extent as snow cover increases
low level stability and decreases the gust factor. However, a
few stronger gusts are possible around the time of a strong cold
frontal passage between 12z and 15z Tuesday morning. A squall
line is possible across the North Woods with this front, but
dynamics will become less favorable as the front moves east for
maintenance of the squall. As the low intensifies during the day
Tuesday northern areas will still remain in a strong pressure
gradient with steepening low level lapse rates becoming dry
adiabatic through 850mb. Wind gusts across far northern areas
may approach advisory levels again during the day Tuesday, and a
few additional power outages are possible.
There may be a brief period of strong gusty winds across the
north early Tuesday morning just ahead of the cold front. This
may result in isolated power outages.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Snowmelt and 1 to 3 inches of rain through
Tuesday morning may lead to ice jams and poor drainage flooding,
mainly south of Baxter State Park and Houlton.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A Flood Watch is in effect from today into Tuesday for the
Downeast, Bangor Region and into the Central Highlands including
Southern Aroostook County. This is due to the threat of
excessive runoff driven by heavy rain and rapid snowmelt.
Additionally, there is a localized elevated risk for ice jams in
the Downeast, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Mattawamkeag and
Meduxnekeag river basins. An anomalously moist airmass with
PWATs exceeding 350 percent of normal will interact with a
ripened snowpack, setting the stage for potential hydrological
impacts. Confidence is high for 1 to 2 inches of widespread
rainfall in the Central Highlands to Downeast Maine, with some
ensemble models highlighting the Route 9 (The Airline) corridor
and south upslope of the Longfellow Mtns getting 2-3 inches of
rain.
Initially, cold air damming in the Central Highlands and
Northern Maine will limit snowmelt through this evening.
However, this cold layer will erode tonight as a powerful
70-100 knot low-level jet ushers in a massive moisture surge.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast between 1.20 and
1.40 inches near the 99th percentile for mid-March heavily
favoring intense rainfall rates. This late-today surge of heavy
rain will provide the primary catalyst needed to rapidly flush
water out of the snowpack. We expect a snowmelt water loss of 1
to 2 inches to occur in a condensed 6 to 12-hour window between
this evening and early Tuesday morning.
The coinciding of peak rainfall rates with rapid snowmelt will
lead to swift rises on smaller streams and rivers. While
mainstream rivers currently have ample channel capacity due to
lingering drought conditions, confined mountain channels and
small streams could easily be overwhelmed, resulting in
localized minor flooding. The latest forecast on the Piscataquis
River in Dover-Foxcroft is approaching action stage. Any
additional water from snowmelt could lead this river to approach
flood stage. Latest GEFS and HEFS ensembles give DOVM1 gage less than
a 5 percent or less chance of flooding while the NAEFS has a 30
percent chance. These probabilities have decreased with the
latest update due to slightly less rain expected to fall. NAEFS
is still responding to the higher potential of runoff and
heavier rainfall totals. Furthermore, a deep frost will severely
limit soil infiltration; the sheer volume of runoff is expected
to overwhelm culverts, low-lying areas, and low-water
crossings, likely leading to urban street flooding and drainage
issues across the southern half of the area. Significantly less
rainfall is expected north of Baxter State Park, with around a
half inch to one inch, limiting flood potential. However, minor
poor drainage issues are still possible.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong southerly winds will generate high seas
which should cause minor overwash and possibly localized beach
erosion with the high tides tonight and Tuesday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
High tide tonight is around 10 PM and the high tide on Tuesday
morning is around 1030AM. The strongest winds are expected
near the time of low tide tonight, 4-430am. As a result, should
escape the worst with respect to coastal impacts with this
storm. Most guidance now only suggests some minor overwash with
limited minor beach erosion. As a result have issued a Coastal
Flood Statement covering the high tides tonight and Tuesday
morning.
Current total water level forecasts are for levels less than the
forecast high tides later this week. With that said, the
forecast guidance is currently running around 1 ft too low. If
the error in guidance increases to over 2 ft, then its possible
to see minor coastal flooding, especially during the Tuesday
morning high tide. We will continue to monitor the performance
of forecast guidance, and make appropriate adjustments to the
forecast and headlines as required.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A series of weak systems are forecast to pass
near the area from late Thursday through Monday. These could
bring light to possibly moderate snow to the region, possibly
impacting travel.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
The models all agree we will be in an active pattern from
Thursday-Monday of next week. At least 3 to possibly 4 northern
stream systems are progged to pass near the region during this
time frame. However the models differ on the timing and impact
with each system. They do suggest that each storm might be a bit
stronger than the one before it. At this time the most likely
solution is a light to moderate solution with each system, if
each system brings precipitation at all. The storm which could
have the most impact is the one for early next week (still
uncertain as to if it will be on Sunday or Monday - or maybe
both days). There is some chance that the northern stream energy
could phase to some degree with southern stream energy and
create a stronger system. This is indicated in a minority of
guidance at this point.
As confidence is gained in the timing/strength/impacts with
each system, we will split them out from this key message and
address separately.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LIFR through tonight with rain, moderate to heavy at times
mainly after 0z, and LLWS. Strong southerly wind gusts are
expected, especially from HUL south with peak gusts to 50 kts
possible at BGR and BHB late tonight.
Conditions rapidly improve to VFR between 13z and 15z. Winds
shift WSW, increasing over northern terminals with gusts to 35
kts, and decreasing over southern terminals with gusts to 30 kts
expected through the day.
Tuesday night: VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR. W winds G15KT possible
Wednesday.
Thursday...Low chance of MVFR late. SE winds G15-20KT possible.
Thursday night-Friday...MVFR or lower possible. S-SE winds
G15-20KT possible.
Friday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible
Friday night. NW winds G20-30KT possible Saturday.
Note: There should be some gap between the system for Thursday
night/Friday and the one for Friday night/Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale force winds will increase towards storm force tonight with
gusts around 50 kts expected. Seas will increase to 15 to 20
feet. Fog and periods of moderate to heavy rain will reduce
visibility. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Visibility, winds, and seas improve on Tuesday, but winds will
remain at Gale force into Tuesday night before decreasing
towards small craft advisory levels towards early Wednesday
morning. Light freezing spray develops later Tuesday night.
SCA conditions likely on all waters Wednesday, with those
conditions possibly lingering into Wednesday night on the
coastal ocean waters. All waters should see sub-SCA conditions
on Thursday. SCA conditions should then return to the coastal
ocean waters Thursday night and the intra-coastal waters by
Friday night. Gale conditions are then probable on the coastal
ocean waters and possible on the intra-coastal waters by late
Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ002.
Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MEZ005-006-010-011-
015>017-029>032.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ006-011-032.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ015>017-029-
030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/PM/MWS
AVIATION...MB/PM/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
