NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
724
FXUS61 KCAR 292335
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
735 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update 00z aviation discussion.
Increasing possibilities of a more southern storm track for
mid-week system.
Increasing confidence in potential for plowable snow across the
North late this week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A brief period of light snow across the north Monday morning could
result in minor travel impacts, then turning unseasonably warm by
afternoon.
2) A wintry mix is possible across the North from Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, which could create slick
surfaces leading to travel hazards, particularly for the
Wednesday morning commute.
3) Rapidly dropping temperatures may quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute.
4) Increasing chances for a plowable snow across at least the
North late this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A brief period of light snow across the north Monday morning could
result in minor travel impacts, then turning unseasonably warm by
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The approaching shortwave will bring S flow and increasing
clouds tonight. RH models show increase low and mid level
moisture that will produce isolated to scattered snow showers in
the north. In addition, temps will remain fairly moderate
through the night. By Monday, a weak cold front will move
through the region with temps reaching well above normal.
Showers with the front will bring rain to the north before
switch back to snow showers by Monday night. In the north, the
Monday morning commute could have some minor travel impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A wintry mix is possible across the North from Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, which could create slick
surfaces leading to travel hazards, particularly for the
Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to track from the
southern Canadian Prairie Provinces Tuesday morning, to far
southwestern Ontario by Tuesday evening, to southwestern Quebec
by Wednesday morning and into the Canadian Maritime Provinces
by Wednesday evening. There is some differences in the exact
timing and strength of this shortwave, but the models are fairly
consistent in its track. Where they do differ still is on what
this means on the surface. There are still 3 scenarios in play
with this system.
Scenario A: The surface low tracks to the North - the NAM is the
main deterministic model in this camp, and it represents about
less than 20 percent of 12Z ensemble solutions. If this
scenario plays out, most areas will see at most only a brief
period of winter precipitation should be expected late Tuesday
before becoming all rain. Across northern Aroostook, there could
be several hours of a wintry mix late Tuesday afternoon/evening
before changing to all rain. This is viewed as the least likely
scenario.
Scenario B: The surface low tracks across central or northern
Maine. The deterministic ECMWF is in this camp, but has shifted
noticeably southward from previous runs. This represents less
than 25% of all 12Z ensemble solutions. This is a significant
change from the 00Z ensemble solutions, when it represented over
1/2 of all solutions. Because this is a marked change, leaned
towards this solution for the forecast to guard against the
forecast returning to this with tonights model runs. This
scenario produces 1-3" of snow across the North late Tuesday,
then several hours of a wintry mix Tuesday night and possibly
into Wednesday morning across the Saint John Valley. This could
result in a 1/3-1/2" of freezing rain and around 1/2 to 3/4" of
sleet across the North as well. This would result in impacts to
the Tuesday afternoon and potentially the Wednesday morning
commute across the North. Across the remainder of the forecast
area, there would be mainly rain, with around 1/3 to 2/3 of an
inch of rainfall. Because most rivers in the southern portions
of the area have flushed of ice, and there has been some thawing
of the ground, there is expected to be minimal hydrologic
impact as a result.
Scenario C: The surface low tracks near the Maine Coast either
just inland or offshore across the northern Gulf of Maine. The
deterministic GFS, CMC-Regional and CMC-Global are in this
camp. It represents almost 60% of the 12Z ensemble solutions.
This scenario should result in a plowable snow across at least
portions of the North. late Tuesday and Tuesday night, impacting
the Tuesday afternoon commute there. The area of wintry mix
would shift south across the Bangor/Penobscot Region, interior
Downeast Maine, and possibly the southern Central Highlands from
late Tuesday possibly into at least early Wednesday morning
before changing to rain. This could impact the Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday morning commutes there. Finally along
the Downeast Coast, depending on the exact low track will
determine how much rain vice a wintry mix this area will see.
There should be enough rain mixed in to minimize any wintry
impacts. If current trends hold, the forecast will shift to this
scenario with future updates. So for now it would be prudent to
plan for both Scenarios B and C.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Rapidly dropping temperatures may quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Cold air moves in on Wednesday either behind the cold front or
the departing surface low depending on which scenario plays out.
This should result in the rapid freeze of any untreated wet
surfaces, especially elevated ones. The main impact should be
for the Wednesday afternoon commute.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
Increasing chances for a plowable snow across at least the
North late this week.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
The models have come closer together with their solutions for
the system for late this week.
Deep layered ridging exits to the east late Thursday ahead of an
advancing northern stream shortwave trough track across the
Great Lakes Thursday night, across southern Quebec Friday, then
across New England and into the southern Maritimes Friday night.
This should result in a surface low tracking to the southern
Great Lakes by Friday morning, to western New England by Friday
evening, then transitions to a coastal low which should be
south of Nova Scotia by Saturday morning. This storm track
should bring snow across the north, possibly mixing with some
sleet at times (depending on how fast the coastal low takes
over) from Thursday night into Friday night. Across Downeast
Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot region there should be a wintry
mix mixing with or changing to rain, especially near the coast.
Depending on the exact low track, there is a chance for at
least accumulating snow across the interior Downeast and the
Bangor Penobscot Region as well. This could impact the commutes
from as early as Thursday afternoon (low chance), and both
commutes on Friday (best chance).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight...VFR. SW 5-10kts.
Monday...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out brief MVFR conditions at
CAR and FVE in light snow or rain showers mid-morning into early
afternoon. SSW 5-15 gusts to 20kts.
Monday night...VFR, MVFR moving into Downeast terminals late.
Light WNW winds.
Tuesday: IFR or lower likely, developing from SW to NE. Snow to
a wintry mix at northern terminals. A wintry mix to rain at
southern terminals. LLWS possible southern terminals and SE
winds G15-25kt possible northern terminals Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night: IFR or lower likely. A wintry mix to rain at
northern terminals. LLWS possible southern terminals.
Wednesday: IFR or lower possible in the morning, then becoming
VFR. Snow showers possible ahead of a cold front late
morning/early afternoon. NW winds G20-30KT possible in the
afternoon.
Wednesday night-Thrusday morning: VFR.
Thursday afternoon-Friday: IFR or lower likely, developing
Thursday afternoon/evening. Mainly snow possible at northern
terminals with snow and/or rain possible at southern terminals.
ENE-NE winds G15-25KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been extended tonight through Monday
night with gusts up to 30 kts and seas 5-9 ft.
SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday,
with sub-SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters. Winds
increase Tuesday night with SCA conditions likely on the intra-
coastal waters and gales possible on the coastal ocean waters.
Conditions should become SCA throughout by Wednesday afternoon.
SCA conditions could then continue on the coastal ocean waters
Wednesday night and Thursday, with sub-SCA conditions on the
intra-coastal waters. SCA conditions are then likely on the
coastal ocean waters and possible on the intra-coastal waters
from Thursday night into Friday night. Gales are also possible
on the coastal ocean waters during this time frame.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...21/ARL/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
