NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
967
FXUS61 KCAR 011838
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
138 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Expanded the Cold Weather Advisory to include northeast
Aroostook and northern Piscataquis Counties, where wind chills
as low as 25 below zero are expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight and
early Monday morning with wind chills as low as 30 below zero
across far northern Maine. Take extra precautions to protect
yourself and pets from exposure to cold.
2) Chance for some snow Downeast Tuesday night into Wednesday,
which could impact Wednesday morning commute.
3) Warming temperatures next week lead to potential for some
mixed precipitation next week, which could impact Thursday night
into Friday morning commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected
tonight and early Monday morning with wind chills as low as 30
below zero across far northern Maine. Take extra precautions to
protect yourself and pets from exposure to cold.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An Arctic air mass will continue to overspread the area this
evening as surface high pressure builds in from the west.
1000-500mb thicknesses will fall below 500dam along with 850mb
temperatures in the low to mid negative 20s C. These values are
colder than average even for January. The location of the
surface high pressure center far to the west over northern NY
and VT will prevent most areas from decoupling, but sheltered
valleys could see temperatures fall well into the teens below
zero to near 20 below. Most other locations are expected to fall
to zero to 10 below for the south half of the area and 5 to 15
below across the north. Even the slight 5 to 10 mph breeze
forecast will be enough to lower wind chills to at or below the
-25F advisory criteria across the north and into the -10s to
lower -20s elsewhere. HREF probabilities also indicate potential
for advisory criteria wind chills over portions of northern
Penobscot, central Piscataquis, and southeast Aroostook
Counties, but coverage was not sufficient for an advisory over
these zones. Frostbite times on exposed skin will be as little
as 10 minutes across open areas of far northern Maine, and usual
precautions should be taken to protect people and pets from
cold. Temperatures will moderate very quickly Monday morning
with plentiful sunshine expected.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance for some snow Downeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday, which could impact Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Weak low pressure system develops off the coast of Maine
Tuesday, sliding along the coastline Tuesday night. Weak cold
front associated with this system moves through overnight,
providing a little lift and instability for precipitation.
Temperatures just below freezing along the coastline, so there
is a chance for a rain/snow mix along the immediate coast.
Models seem to be trending this storm to go south of Nova-
Scotia, so not anticipating much accumulation inland. Could be a
few inches along the coast, but totals overall below advisory
level. Winds relatively calm at 5 to 10 mph, so little concern
about blow/drifting snow. Snow ratios relatively low for this
event, so there could be some heavier, wet snow. Temperatures
raise into the 40s during the day on Wednesday, and with
temperatures quickly falling again behind front, exercise
caution on roads that could develop slick spots.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming temperatures next week lead to potential
for some mixed precipitation next week, which could impact
Thursday night into Friday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Upper-level shortwave kink, alongside warm air advection during
the week, leads to a potential for mixed precipitation to occur
in the region Thursday night into Friday. Exact timing is
uncertain, as the GFS has a faster solution, and the ECMWF has
the system move through later in the evening on Thursday. With
the GFS, there could be be more rain, as temperatures raise into
the 40s during the day. The ECMWF is a snowier solution
currently, with most of the snow falling in the Downeast region
overnight. Slightly chance for mixed precipitation Downeast with
this event, which could cause slick travel conditions. Currently
kept precipitation types as rain/snow due to uncertainty on
system track and timing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through Monday night at all terminals. NW winds around 10
kts through tonight, shifting W Monday, then shifting SW and
decreasing to around 5 kts Monday night.
Tuesday...Generally VFR. SW wind 10 to 15
kts with 30 mph gusts.
Tuesday night...VFR, with a potential for MVFR at southern
terminals as snow moves in along the coast. Light and variable
wind.
Wednesday...VFR.. W wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday night...VFR lowering to IFR south and generally MVFR
north. SW winds around 5 kt.
Thursday...VFR north. IFR becoming MVFR and possibly VFR south. N
wind 5 to 10 kt.
Thursday night - Friday... MVFR/IFR possible in snow showers at
all terminals. N/NE winds shifting SE during the day, at 5-10
kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts to 25 to 30 kts are expected tonight across all
coastal waters and seas of 3 to 5 feet are forecast over the
outer waters. Moderate freezing spray is also expected. Small
craft and freezing spray advisories have been issued. Winds
decrease below advisory levels Monday morning, but moderate
freezing spray will persist longer, becoming light around
midday. Light freezing spray continues into Monday evening
before air temperatures moderate late Monday night. Southwest
winds increase later Monday night towards advisory levels once
again.
Potential for Gale Force conditions over the waters on Tuesday. Seas
as high as 8 ft over the outer-waters are possible. Conditions
fall below Small Craft by early Wednesday morning. Potential for
a rain/snow mix along in intra-coastals, and rain over the
outer-waters. Also a chance for some fog over waters Tuesday
night. Winds from the SW Tuesday, shifting to the N/NW on
Wednesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for
MEZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Monday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS
AVIATION...ASB/MWS
MARINE...ASB/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
