NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
805
FXUS61 KCAR 270636
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
136 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended Small Craft Advisory through 7am this morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures rise to nearly 10 degrees above normal Saturday
before an Arctic front moves into the area late Sat afternoon.
Snow and rain showers occurring ahead of the front, with
squalls possible with any snow showers, reducing visibilities.
2) Bitter cold Arctic air will overspread the region behind the cold
front Saturday night. This will result in frigid conditions from
Saturday night into Monday. The coldest temperatures will be from
late Sunday night into Monday morning bringing with it the risk of
frostbite and hypothermia.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures rise to nearly 10 degrees above normal Saturday
before an Arctic front moves into the area late Sat afternoon.
Snow and rain showers occurring ahead of the front, with squalls
possible with any snow showers.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A strong low level jet will develop Saturday morning as sfc low
moves through nrn Quebec. A tight pressure gradient develops
between 980mb sfc low and 1030mb hipres over the Canadian
Maritimes during the day. Southwesterly low-level jet of 50-60
kts will allow sfc temps to warm to around 40 degrees during the
day. Winds will frequently gust to 30-40mph, especially at
higher elevations.
An Arctic front will be approaching from the northwest with a
pre-frontal trof moving through in the afternoon. Precipitation
likely to develop ahead of the initial trof, most likely in the
form of rain showers, though may see a mix with snow showers
over the far northwest as Arctic front moves in toward 00z.
Steep low-level lapse rates and plenty of sfc instability looks
to be enough to result in potential for snow squalls but how
quickly temps can drop to change rain over to snow is more in
question that previously thought.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Bitter cold Arctic air will overspread the region
behind the cold front Saturday night. This will result in frigid
conditions from Saturday night into Monday. The coldest temperatures
will be from late Sunday night into Monday morning bringing with it
the risk of frostbite and hypothermia.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening as Arctic
high pressure begins to build in from the west. Cold Arctic air will
filter into the region Saturday night with lows by Sunday morning
from near zero over the far northwest to the low 20s Downeast.
Sunday will remain bitter cold over the north with highs only in the
low to mid teens. A weather disturbance crossing the south may bring
some light snow to southern areas. Otherwise, the south will not be
as cold with highs near 30 along the coast. Arctic high pressure
will then continue to build in Sunday night with frigid temperatures
expected across the entire area. Lows by Monday morning will range
from the mid teens below zero northwest to near zero Downeast and wind
chills will range from the mid 20s below in some northern spots to
around ten below Downeast. This could result in the risk of
hypothermia and frostbite. Anyone venturing outdoors Monday morning
is advised to dress in layers and protect hands and face.
Temperatures Monday will remain very cold with highs only from the
low teens north to around 20 downeast which will be around 15 degrees
below normal across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today...May see brief MVFR cigs at northern Aroostook terminals
early as low stratus moves south through the area. VFR likely
after 08-09z this morning at all terminals. NW winds 5kts
becoming south 5kts this evening.
Tonight...VFR early diminishing to MVFR cigs late mainly for
Aroostook terminals. S 5-10kts.
Saturday...Mainly VFR Downeast terminals with MVFR/IFR Aroostook
terminals. SW 10-20kts, gusting to 25kts.
Saturday night...VFR north. MVFR becoming VFR south. NW wind around
5 kt.
Sunday...VFR north. MVFR south, possibly dropping briefly to IFR at
times in light snow. NW wind around 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday night...VFR north. MVFR becoming VFR south. NW wind 5 to 10
kt.
Monday...VFR except possibly briefly lowering to MVFR at times over
the far north. W wind around 5 kt.
Monday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR north late. SW wind
around 5 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR to IFR north. VFR south. SW wind around 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas remain above small craft levels through 12z this morning
over the outer waters. After a brief break during the day today,
expect seas will rise above 5ft this evening. By Saturday
afternoon seas increase to between 5 to 7 feet in southerly
swell. Southwesterly winds increase to small craft levels early
Saturday morning and remain elevated through the day.
Winds will drop below SCA Saturday evening then increase back to an
SCA late Sunday with a strong SCA or gale likely Sunday night. Winds
will drop below SCA Sunday. Moderate freezing spray is likely Sunday
night into Monday morning. A SCA may be needed again late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning. Seas will be up to 6 ft Saturday evening
dropping to around 4 ft by Sunday morning. Seas will remain around 4 ft
through Monday morning then drop to around 3 ft from late Monday
into Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST early this morning
for Anz050-051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
