NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
053
FXUS61 KCAR 021853
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
153 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low crosses the Gulf of Maine tonight, then exits
into the southern Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. An Arctic
cold front crosses the region on Thursday with high pressure
building in for Friday. Another cold front approaches from the
northwest on Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Winter Storm Conditions Continue Tonight, Highest Totals Inland
-Snow mixes with Rain on the Downeast Coast, Refreeze Tonight
Discussion...
Low pressure is deepening off the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon with a slug of light precipitation across the CWA.
Light snow is falling in most locations with light accumulations
already underway making for slick travel. Numerous reports of
traffic accidents across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. Will
continue the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
as is and an SPS is out through 4PM EST for Northern and
Northeast Aroostook County. Latest surface observations show the
coastal front slowly working into the Downeast coast with
temperatures above freezing on the islands, MDI, Blue Hill area
and in Cutler to Eastport. At the same time Jonesport is still
27F, Cherryfield 29F and East Surry 31F. This coastal front will
slowly sneak inland to Route 1 and extend close to the Route 9
corridor but expected to remain mainly southeast of Route 9.
This will keep much of the Downeast and Bangor Region in the
snow with snow being wet and sticky. Rain at the shoreline will
improve the driving conditions but expect a lot of slush.
Heaviest precipitation is expected this evening across the
southern 1/3rd to 1/2 of the CWA as surface low deepens in the
Gulf of Maine as the 500mb trof digs overhead. N-NE winds will
increase tonight in response to the increasing pressure
gradient. Any locations that experience wet and heavy snow
expect potential for isolated power outages with weighted down
pine tree limbs. Most inland locations from Bangor northward the
SLRs are 10-15:1 or more so fluffy snow will blow and drift in
any open areas once winds become gusty above 25mph. Most far
northern areas will remain below 20mph so not expecting a lot of
blowing snow. Temperatures tonight will cool back below freezing
at the shoreline making for slippery conditions once again with
refreezing. Inland expecting lows in the teens to low 20s.
Tomorrow the low pressure will depart into the Maritimes and
surface ridging builds overhead. NW winds will relax and
generally drop below 10mph across the area. Partly to mostly
sunny skies will be a good day for cleanup. Highs in the mid to
upper 20s north and low 30s for the Highlands and mid 30s for
the Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages
-Potential snow squalls on Thursday, reducing visibility
-Low temperatures Thursday Night, potentially near ten to
twenty below zero
Discussion...
Arctic front swings through Maine on Thursday,
moving from west to east during the daytime hours. With decent
moisture and favorable signals on Theta E, CAPE, potential
vorticity, and SNSQ parameter, there is a good chance for some
snow squalls to develop as the clouds break up a bit in the
afternoon. Mid-level jet associated with the aforementioned low
pressure system trough brings high winds aloft, which could mix
down to the surface, resulting in gusty winds. If winds are not
mixed down though, breezy conditions are still expected, which
can reduce visibility and cause dangerous travel conditions.
Daytime highs in the low thirties. Heavy burst of snow could
result in upwards of an inch in accumulation in some locations.
Thursday night, low pressure to the north moves east, as
ridging builds in from the west. Anomalously low mid-level
temperatures move in behind this front, with even 850mb
temperatures reaching below 10 degrees. Overnight lows just
below freezing, with gusty winds from mid-level jet causes sub-
advisory level wind chills, around ten to twenty degrees below
zero. These winds may also blow around recent snowfall, reducing
visibility in flat areas.
Ridging on Friday. Clearing skies, dry conditions and highs in
the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages
-High pressure through weekend
-Shortwave moves through early
next week possibly
Discussion...
High pressure Friday night through Saturday. Shortwave moves
through Saturday into Sunday, bringing as decent chance for some
snowfall in northern and central Maine. High pressure builds in
again on Monday. Highs in the twenties over the weekend, and
teens early next week. Overnight lows generally in the single
digits to teens.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...MVFR cigs with IFR/LIFR vsby this
evening becoming MVFR cigs and VFR vsby. -SN ends this evening
with VCSH for a few hours. Winds light and variable becoming
N-NW 5-10kt. Tomorrow MVFR cigs becoming SCT-BKN low end VFR. NW
winds 10-15kt.
Southern Terms...MVFR/IFR cigs and IFR/LIFR vsby with -SN. -SN
is going to mix with RA at BHB and shift to RA/RASN with
improving vsby. Winds N 5-10kt shifting SE 5-10kt at BHB this
evening. Winds turn NW tonight 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.
Any -SN this evening ends with just VCSH for a few hours. VFR
tomorrow with NW winds 10-15kt and gusts up to 25kt.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR/MVFR cigs. Brief IFR/LIFR vis in afternoon snow
showers, particularly across northern terminals. SW winds
shifting W 10 to 15 kts with gusts increasing to 20 to 25 kts.
Isolated gusts to 30 kts in any heavier snow showers.
Thursday night...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. WNW winds 10 to 15
kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.
Friday - Friday night...VFR. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts
to 20 kts.
Saturday - Saturday night...VFR/MVFR cigs, low end chance of
IFR. Slight chance of SN S winds 5 to 10 kts. Slight chance of
SN at eastern terminals Friday night.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Winds from the W, 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will rapidly increase this evening and shift
from the SE to N across the waters. Gale Warning remains in
effect from 10PM this evening till 10AM Wednesday for the
Coastal Waters out 25nm. Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-
Coastal Waters from 10PM this evening till 10AM Wednesday. For
the Gale Warning expect N winds 20-30kt and gusts up to 40kt
with seas 3-6ft. For the SCA expect N winds 10-20kt with gusts
up to 30kt and seas 2-4ft. Moderate to heavy rain at times this
evening into early Wednesday AM will reduce vsby below 2nm at
times. Tomorrow afternoon N winds will fall below SCA criteria
with seas across the outer waters remaining in the 4-6ft range
potentially requiring an SCA. Wednesday night a brief break in
the winds before winds shift SW and increase to SCA levels
again. Sea surface water temperatures range 46-48F across the
Coastal Waters from the Downeast coast out 25nm including
Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.
SHORT TERM: Small Craft winds and seas expected Thursday,
building up to Gale force conditions Thursday night into Friday.
Outer-waters see waves up to 10ft on Friday, and up to 6ft over
the inter-coastal waters. Rain on Thursday, that transitions
over to snow by nighttime. Winds from the WSW Thursday, shifting
to the NW by Friday. Gale conditions begin to relax early Friday
morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...JS/ASB
Marine...JS/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
