NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
118
FXUS61 KCAR 121417
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
917 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
915 am update...
Included scattered snow showers across northeast Aroostook for
this morning with potential for localized accumulation of an
inch or so.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of blowing snow downwind of open and agricultural areas
today will lead to extremely hazardous travel with blowing and
drifting snow around the time of the morning commute.
2) Low pressure tracking north of the area Wednesday will bring
light rain south and light snow mixing with or changing to rain
north.
3) A cold front crossing the area Thursday morning will bring
quickly falling temperatures possibly making wet roads icy. Some
snow is likely as a low tracks northeast along the front.
4) A new area of low pressure developing offshore on Friday may
bring snow to parts of the area with the best chance for snow across
the south.
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Areas of blowing snow downwind of open and agricultural areas
today will lead to extremely hazardous travel with blowing and
drifting snow around the time of the morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure deepening over the Gulf of St. Lawrence is allowing
pressure gradient to tighten and H9 winds to strengthen. Should see
wind start to pick up here in another few hours with peak gusts
either side of 12z. Expect NW winds gusting between 30-35 mph over
higher terrain and in open areas. This will result in blowing and
drifting snow on east-west roads. Travelers should exercise extreme
caution as visibilities may be reduced suddenly in open areas and
snowdrifts on roads can pull your vehicle to the side. Winds begin
to lighten in the early afternoon though will still remain gusty
before diminishing this evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pressure tracking north of the area Wednesday will bring
rain south and snow mixing with or changing to rain north.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure lifting north along an approaching frontal boundary on
Wednesday will track across Quebec pulling warmer and moist air
north. This will bring some light rain over southern areas and
intermittent light snow snow mixing with or changing to rain
across the north. Precipitation will be mainly a function of
convergence ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation
will be light, generally amounting to a tenth of an inch or less
liquid equivalent.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A cold front crossing the area Thursday morning will bring
falling temperatures possibly making wet roads icy. Some snow is
likely as a low tracks northeast along the front.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A cold front along the leading edge of Arctic air will press across
the area early Thursday morning bringing falling temperatures. The
temperatures across the north may drop as much as 7 degrees in an
hour as the leading edge of cold air presses into the region.
Precipitation in the form of wet snow or rain north and rain south
will change to all snow. The continuation of precipitation as
the cold front presses in will likely keep the roads wet as the
temperatures abruptly fall bringing a risk of icy surfaces. In
addition, a secondary area of low pressure forming just south of
the front offshore may slow the front as it nears southern
areas and possibly prolong snowfall across the area Thursday.
Additional snowfall will be produced by frontal convergence,
cold air undercutting the warmer air aloft, and upper air lift
out ahead of a deep upper trough of low pressure approaching the
Mid-Atlantic region.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A new area of low pressure developing offshore on Friday may
bring snow to parts of the area with the best chance for snow
across the south.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A vigorous upper trough digging across the Carolinas Thursday night
will develop a new area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This low has the potential to bring snow to parts of the area,
especially across the south, on Friday. Low pressure will quickly
lift northeast to a position off Nova Scotia by late Friday. There
remains uncertainties in the track. A path further offshore
would bring little or no snow or limit snow to the Downeast
region while a track closer in to the coast, or a larger more
expansive storm, could spread snow well inland. This looks like
whatever the track, it should be a cold system with all snow
across the area. Any snow should taper off Friday night as the
low quickly moves away.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected KBGR/BHB through tonight. Brief IFR/LIFR will
affect the Aroostook terminals through 16z, mainly KCAR.
Becoming VFR this afternoon through tonight.
NW winds 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts either side of 12z this
morning. Winds diminish by evening.
Tuesday...expect VFR over Downeast terminals with potential
MVFR cigs north during the day. Winds will be from the southwest
5-15kts on Tuesday
Tuesday night...MVFR dropping to IFR, and possibly LIFR late. S
wind.
Wednesday...IFR to LIFR. S wind.
Wednesday night...IFR. Light and variable wind becoming N.
Thursday...IFR south. IFR improving to MVFR and possibly VFR north.
N wind.
Thursday night...VFR north. IFR improving to MVFR and possibly
dropping back to IFR south. NE wind.
Friday...IFR south. MVFR north. N wind becoming NW.
&&
.MARINE...
West winds will increase to gale force early this morning and
remain into the mid-morning hours over the intracoastal and
early afternoon over the outer waters. Gale warning will need to
be converted to SCA through tonight for both winds and seas.
Headlines not expected on Tuesday.
A gale may be needed late Tuesday night into Wednesday for SW winds
gusting up to 35 kt. Winds should drop to SCA Wednesday and below
SCA Wednesday night. Winds may increase to SCA Thursday then likely
a gale Thursday night into Friday for N winds gusting up to 40
kt.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21/TWD
AVIATION...MB/21/TWD
MARINE...MB/21/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
