NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
343
FXUS61 KCAR 270016
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
816 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- (8 PM Update) Minor adjustments were made to PoP, QPF, and Sky
based on observations and the latest guidance. Surface
observations show the cold front approaching the northern
International Border and the Saint John Valley. A recent
spotter observation also indicated a changeover to -SN in
Madawaska. This front will continue to work into northern
Maine over the next several hours, changing precipitation over
to light snow with minimal accumulation expected. A second
area of rain will develop across Downeast Maine in a few
hours, with a few tenths of an inch expected for most
locations.
- Updated aviation section.
- Raised precipitation totals for tonight over southern portions
of the area.
- Decreased precip chances for the Monday system
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Colder air moving in tonight will lead to icy roads for many
places north of Bangor late tonight.
2) Well below normal temperatures Friday night, Saturday, and
Saturday night followed by moderating temperatures Sunday, then
a light wintry mix on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Colder air moving in tonight will lead to icy
roads for many places north of Bangor late tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The concern for icy roads is later tonight behind a cold front.
Another area of precipitation will move in this evening, first
in the north and later tonight over southern portions of the
area. Most of the precipitation will be ahead of the cold front
and fall as rain, though there could be a very brief changeover
to snow before it ends from north to south. Any snow
accumulation should be a half inch or less. What the
precipitation will do is wet or re-wet the roads, and with
temperatures falling fairly fast behind the cold front, think
that many roads won`t have time to dry before temperatures fall
below freezing. The freezing line reaches Caribou/Presque Isle
around midnight and Millinocket/Greenville/Danforth around 4am.
The freezing line may get down to Bangor around dawn Friday, but
think it will be brief enough from Bangor south that roads
should not ice up.
One other issue to be aware of tonight is fog ahead of the cold
front. Can`t rule out locally dense fog especially over central
portions of the area, and on hilltops.
The cooler, drier air and sunshine during the day Friday should
allow any icy roads to dry out pretty quickly.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures Friday night,
Saturday, and Saturday night followed by moderating temperatures
Sunday, then a light wintry mix on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
An upper level trof will continue to pipe in an arctic airmass
into the region Friday night. The 925mb temps drop to the
coldest for the weekend between -18C to -20C on Friday night.
Expected surface temps in the single digits below zero in the
north and teens above zero in the south. By Saturday morning,
the 925mb model temps show a slight warming with the partly
cloud skies to -10C to -14C. Temps at the surface should remain
well below normal at low 20s in the north and mid 20s in the
south. Mostly clear skies on Saturday night should drop temps
again into the single digits across most of the region with
teens near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A band of IFR ceilings is over FVE and CAR as of 0z and is
expected to move south towards the rest of the TAF sites over
the next several hours. A FROPA is expected first at FVE around
0z, CAR and PQI around 2-3z, HUL around 4-5z, and BGR and BHB
around 5-7z. Ahead of the front, LLWS is possible around 1kft
AGL, mainly through 2z, with light S winds. Behind the front,
wind shift out of the NW and increase to around 10 kts with
gusts to 20-25 kts. Ceilings improve to MVFR behind the front,
with clearing to VFR expected during the morning. -RA is
expected with and ahead of the front, with a brief period of
-SN, mainly at northern terminals just after passage.
VFR expected areawide on Friday and Friday night. NW winds
around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts during the day Friday, then
subsiding to 5-10 kts Friday night.
Saturday-Sunday...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR in snow showers
on Sunday. NW winds 5-10 kts, then Saturday night to Sunday SW
winds 5-15 kts.
Monday...Possible MVFR/IFR with uncertainty in snow. SSW winds
5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions continue through Friday and probably
Friday evening, either as seas or winds. SW winds into this
evening switch to N/NW late tonight and remain from the N/NW
into Friday night. Light freezing spray later Friday night.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night and
again Sunday night and possible Gale Force conditions on Monday.
Light freezing spray is possible Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
