NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
462
FXUS61 KCAR 191935
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
235 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Increased confidence in extremely cold weather this weekend.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very cold wind chills Tuesday into Tuesday night causing
hypothermia or frostbite to exposed skin.
2) Artic air late week through the weekend brings the coldest
air of the season along with dangerous wind chills.
3) Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Very cold wind chills Tuesday into Tuesday
night causing hypothermia or frostbite to exposed skin.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The exiting low pressure system will move off to the NE into the
Maritimes tonight into Tuesday. The approaching surface will
cause the pressure gradients to tighten which will create gusty
WSW winds. In addition, the upper level trof will move into the
region bringing a very cold airmass into the area. The 925mb
model temps show around -20C in the north and -14C in the south.
Since the upper air model soundings show a mixing layer above
925mb, these cold temps will mix down Tuesday and Tuesday night.
By the evening of Tuesday, temps will decrease into the single
digits above zero with wind chills in the teens below zero. The
surface ridge is not expected to move across the region until
after midnight, thus winds will remain breezy into the night.
Once the ridge moves in, winds will decrease towards Wednesday
morning. Though the winds will be lower, winds chills will reach
into the 20s below zero. Concerns will be for Wednesday morning
commuters being outside for an extended period of time.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Artic air late week through the weekend brings the coldest
air of the season along with dangerous wind chills.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air will spill across the region Friday then persist
through the weekend into early next week. Much below normal
level temperatures are expected Friday through Monday. High
temperatures Friday will range from around 10 to around 15
north, to the lower to mid 20s Downeast. Low temperatures
Friday night will range from around 10 to 15 below zero north,
to around zero to 5 below Downeast. High temperatures Saturday
will range from around zero to 5 below north, to 5 to 10
Downeast. Low temperatures Saturday night will generally range
from 15 to 20 below zero north, to 5 to 10 below zero Downeast.
High temperatures Sunday will range from around zero north, to
5 to 10 Downeast. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from
10 to 15 below zero north, to around zero to 5 below Downeast.
High temperatures Monday will range from around zero to 5 above
north, to 10 to 15 Downeast. However, wind chill values will be
much lower. The pressure gradient between intensifying low
pressure moving from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to Labrador and
strong Arctic high pressure to the west will support gusty winds
Friday into Monday. These winds, together with the very cold
temperatures, will produce dangerous wind chills Friday into
Monday. Wind chill temperatures later Friday into Monday will
generally range from around 25 below to 40 below zero across
northern areas, with around 10 below to around 25 below zero
Downeast.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
An intensifying clipper system will approach western Quebec
province Wednesday night, then track northwest of Maine Thursday
drawing an occluded front across the forecast area. Weak low
pressure could try to develop along the occlusion. Snow will
accompany this system. Snow totals are still uncertain. However,
current indications only support light accumulations with the
greatest accumulations across Downeast areas. Snow will taper to
snow showers Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions this evening with brief MVFR cigs in the
south. By tonight, south terminals improve to VFR while north
terminals will see brief MVFR cigs. By Tuesday and Tuesday
night, VFR conditions for all terminals. Light SW winds this
evening increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts tonight
into Tuesday. By Tuesday night, WSW winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday...VFR. Southwest/south winds 10 to 15 knots.
Wednesday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of snow.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Snow likely. South/southwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.
Thursday night...MVFR/IFR early. VFR/MVFR late. Snow tapering to
snow showers. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 to 25 knots.
Friday night through Saturday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning begins tonight, which will lead to light freezing
spray through the day on Tuesday. Gales likely to continue
through the day on Tuesday while seas increase to 6 to 11 ft.
The intracoastal waters may see gusts approach gale force and
could briefly reach 35 kts, but otherwise conditions are likely
to be strong SCA level Tuesday. The Gale warning will continue
into Tuesday night with a possible freezing spray advisory
needed.
Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday. Gale
conditions are then possible Wednesday night into Thursday
night. Small craft advisory conditions, along with occasional
gale conditions, will occur across the waters Friday through the
weekend. Snow/rain expected across the waters Wednesday night
into Thursday. Light freezing spray early Wednesday. Freezing
spray of varying intensities then expected Friday through the
weekend with Arctic air crossing the waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
