NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
689
FXUS61 KCAR 301042
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME
642 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region early this morning. High pressure
will build in from the west today and crest over the area
Thursday. Low pressure approaches on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:40 AM Update...Based on buoy observations and trends, opted
to drop the Gale Warning on the outer waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for all waters through late this
afternoon. Please see the Marine section for more details.
Otherwise, last line of rain showers moving out of the area at
this time with a passing cold front. Strong winds behind the
front, but not strong enough to warrant any wind headlines at
this time. Will continue to monitor and update as needed.
Previous Discussion...
A cold front associated with a low pressure system well north
of Maine is crossing the region early this morning. There will
be some leftover rain showers with this front early this morning
across the North. The front will clear the entire region no
later than mid-morning. Behind the front, the pressure gradient
will increase as high pressure builds in from the west. The
result will be west to northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph. Some
locally higher gusts are possible in the higher terrain today.
Strong cold air advection will prevent temperatures from rising
much from the Central Highlands northward. Downsloping flow will
allow the Bangor region and Downeast to see high temperatures
approach 60 degrees.
Given the dry air mass behind the front, opted to blend in the
NBM 10th percentile for dew point temperatures this afternoon.
This results in forecast minimum relative humidity values of 20
to 30 percent across the area this afternoon. Please see the
Fire Weather section for more details.
Winds will gradually diminish tonight as high pressure begins to
build in and daytime heating is lost. Although skies will be
mostly clear, not expecting winds to drop off enough for ideal
radiational cooling. That said, felt confident enough to go a
bit below NBM guidance for low temperatures tonight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s in the colder northern
valleys, with lower to mid 30s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over Maine Thursday into Friday, before
moving east into the Atlantic. Dry air leads to clear skies, and
temperatures rising into the high 50s throughout northern Maine.
Light winds from the west. Low pressure in the low-levels over
the Great Lakes moves northeast into Quebec, advecting in some
moisture and clouds. Precipitation chances creep in from west to
east Thursday night. Low temperatures in the low-40s.
Low pressure gets closer to the Maine border on Friday. Winds
may gust a bit due to pressure gradient associated with the low.
Rain showers forecast for all of northern Maine through the
weekend. Highs on Friday forecast to be in the low 50s. With
winds diminishing and high relative humidity, possibility for
patchy fog along the coast. Overnight lows in the high-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move northeast into Canada this
weekend, bring rain showers through Sunday morning. High
pressure moves into the mid-west, leading to some dry conditions
on Monday. Next chance of precipitation moves in in the middle
of the week next week, with some model disagreement. The GFS
shows a low system in the Atlantic lingers over waters beginning
on Tuesday through the middle of the week. The EURO, however,
shows a low system approaching New England. Continue to monitor
the forecast for updates Highs in the 50s/60s in the long term
period, and lows generally in the 30s/40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR possible at times at FVE this morning.
Otherwise, VFR through today and tonight at All Terminals. S
winds 5-15 kts through 08-10z, then becoming NW. Winds NW 10-20
kts today, gusting 25-40 kts at times. NW winds diminish
tonight.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR conditions. Winds from the NW shifting to the S
by evening, at 5-10kts.
Thursday night...MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain showers. Winds
from the S at 5-10kts.
Friday and Friday night...MVFR/IFR conditions due to rain.
Winds from the S/SE at 5-10 kts, gusting 20-25 kts. Potential
for patchy fog Friday night at southern terminals.
Saturday...MVFR conditions due to light rain showers. S wind
becoming W in the afternoon at 5-10 kts.
Saturday night through Sunday...MVFR conditions as rain lingers
in the area. S wind 5 to 10kts becoming W/NW. Gusts up to 20 kt
possible Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning for the outer waters has been
dropped as there are no longer widespread wind gusts to 34 kts.
Based on forecast winds and seas, opted to put a Small Craft
Advisory for all waters through late this afternoon. NW wind
gusts to 30 kts are expected into this afternoon. Wave heights
could reach 9 feet on the outer waters. Winds and seas will
subside below SCA criteria by this evening on all waters.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory
conditions Thursday through Friday morning. Friday winds and
seas begin to creep up towards Small Craft Advisory until
Saturday. Rain showers Thursday night through Sunday. Winds from
the NW shifting to the S by Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy weather is expected today in the wake of a cold
front. Winds are expected to gust 30-40 mph over much of the
area today, with locally higher gusts over the higher terrain.
Relative humidity values will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent
range over much of the region. Some rain fell overnight with a
passing cold front, though not everywhere. High temperatures
today will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees from the North
Woods into the Saint John Valley. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 50s from the Central Highlands into eastern Aroostook
County. Expect upper 50s to lower 60s for highs near Bangor and
Downeast. We will continue to monitor temperature, wind, and
relative humidity trends as the day progresses.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...Clark/Brennan
Marine...Clark/Brennan
Fire Weather...Clark