NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
945
FXUS61 KCAR 161506
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1006 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* 10:00AM UPDATE...Increased blowing snow threat from patchy to
areas based on current observations of road conditions and
visibilities less than 1 mile over the north. Also made minor
adjustments to PoPs based on current radar trends.
* 6:59AM UPDATE...Have made adjustments to the POPs to follow
KCBW and Canadian radar trends over the CWA. Increased POPs
for chance snow showers in Downeast areas due to recent
increasing echos off the KCBW and KGYX radars. Across Northern
Maine where a solid area of snow is falling expecting to fill
in more and become moderate at times this morning as surface
cyclogenesis increases with a low tracking from Maine into
New Brunswick. This will allow for increased surface lift and
deformation banding features to setup over Northern Maine.
Will continue Winter Weather Advisory across Northern Maine
for widespread 3-5 inches. SPS issued for Downeast Maine where
flash freeze in progress with temperatures rapidly falling
below freezing. 12z TAF Aviation update below...
* Increased the probability for snow Saturday afternoon and
Saturday evening.
* Increased the probability for snow Downeast Sunday evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rapidly increasing potential of heavier snow this morning
through midday in Northern Maine. Gusty winds will lead to
blowing/drifting snow in the north today will increase the
hazardous travel conditions.
2) Flash freeze conditions this morning in Downeast Maine and
Bangor Region, freezing up any standing water on untreated
surfaces. Could make AM commute hazardous.
3) Generally light snowfall expected Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening with locally hazardous travel
conditions possible.
4) Continued low chance of an impactful winter storm, especially
Downeast areas later Sunday into early Monday, which could
result in locally hazardous travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rapidly increasing potential of heavier snow this morning
through midday in Northern Maine. Gusty winds will lead to
blowing/drifting snow in the north today will increase the
hazardous travel conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
This is an extremely challenging forecast this morning with
rapidly changing model guidance with significant agreement.
500mb low remains back across Vermont and New Hampshire slowly
drifting east this morning. Upper level divergence is increasing
over Eastern Maine and giving way to pressure falls across
southwest Maine suggesting surface cyclogenesis is taking
place. Significant swing in model guidance over the last several
hours shows very good agreement of a blossoming area of light
to moderate precipitation to develop over the Moosehead Region
and eventually tracking northeast. It is Northern Maine that the
greatest concern of higher snowfall potential. Overnight the
hi-res CAMs including RRFS and HRRR show a significant burst of
snow to develop over the next several hours. This has now
appeared solidly in the ECMWF and GFS operational and ensemble
means. Additionally looking at the ECMWF/GFS ensemble low
locations nearly all are in favorable position and strengthening
to produce significant boost in snowfall.
Given these trends have made significant changes to POPs and
QPF but likely to make more changes this morning to account for
this rapidly changing forecast. Bottom line be prepared for
accumulating snow that will require plows and make for slippery
travel in Northern Maine this morning. Hi-Res CAMs and global
models show the precip tapering SW to NE late morning into mid
afternoon. Have bumped snow totals in Northern and Northeast
Aroostook County to a widespread 3-5 inches with 1-3 inches for
the rest of Northern Maine and 1-2 inches for Moosehead Region.
Have added wording to the HWO for Northern Maine with hazardous
travel conditions expected but will monitor trends for potential
winter weather headlines.
Lastly, winds will increase today as the surface low deepens in
New Brunswick and expecting areawide NW winds 10-15mph and
gusting 25-35mph with potential for higher gusts in the higher
terrain and open fields. Given the current snowpack is mostly
frozen solid from the warm up and refreeze nearly all the new
fluffy snow on this surface will be picked up and blown around.
Expecting the potential for localized whiteouts and
significant drifting of the snow to cause slippery travel
conditions. This will mainly impact typical open agricultural
areas of Aroostook County, Northern Penobscot County and
portions of Route 6 between Shirley and Greenville in open areas
on the higher terrain.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Flash freeze conditions this morning in Downeast Maine and
Bangor Region, freezing up any standing water on untreated
surfaces. Could make AM commute hazardous.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As of 1AM EST the cold front extends along I-95 from Houlton to
Lincoln and nearing the Bangor area. North and Northwest of this
front temperatures have fallen 10-15 degrees in the last several
hours refreezing any leftover standing water. This has made
conditions slippery across much of Northern Maine and Moosehead
Lake Region. This front will continue pushing SE over the next
several hours and expect temperatures to rapidly fall with
FROPA. South of the front temperatures are in the upper 30s to
near 40F but temperatures behind the front are in the teens and
low 20s. Given the light winds and even fog ahead of the front
expecting a lot of moisture on untreated roadways and surfaces
to rapidly freeze. Expecting patchy to areas of black ice to
develop this morning leading up to the AM commute. Expecting
potentially dangerous driving conditions along I-95, The Airline
and Route 1 corridors. Expect the entire CWA to be below
freezing by 8AM EST with the last locations including Whiting to
Eastport and Lubec region.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Generally light snowfall expected Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening with locally hazardous travel
conditions expected.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A weak area of low pressure tracks northeast from the Great Lakes
region on Saturday. Another weak area of low pressure will then
track across the Downeast region Saturday afternoon, then exit
through the Canadian Maritime Provinces Saturday night.
There is enough consensus in the guidance and ensemble data to
support an increase in the probability of snow Saturday
afternoon through Saturday evening. This will be a quick moving
system and snowfall amounts are expected to be generally on the
light side. Appears as if a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall is in
store for much of the region from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Along the coast, the snow may mix with rain
with generally an inch or less expected.
With light snowfall rates and no strong wind expected with this
system, impacts are expected to be minimal, other than the
possibility for locally slick travel conditions. At this point,
the snow is expected to begin between 10 AM and 12 PM along the
I-95 corridor from Houlton to the Bangor region. Expected snow
start times north of Houlton up through the St. John Valley are
between 12 PM and 2 PM. The snow is expected to taper off in the
Bangor region after 7 PM but and between 9 PM and Midnight to
the north.
Key Message 4...
Continued low chance of an impactful winter storm, especially
Downeast areas later Sunday into early Monday, which could
result in locally hazardous travel.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure is expected to move northeast across the western
atlantic during Sunday and then track across, or to the south
of Nova Scotia, Sunday night through early Monday. However, the
AI GFS, as well as some ensemble solutions do show a more
westward track. If these solutions were to verify, a potential
impactful winter storm, with accumulating snow and wind for
portions of the forecast area, could be expected. Regardless,
whether a more westward track is realized, felt confident
enough to increase probability of snow for portions of Downeast
Maine, especially central and coastal Washington county, which
would likely see at least some measurable snowfall Sunday
evening.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12z TAF UPDATE...Continuing IFR brief LIFR across northern terms
with -SN into the afternoon. Expecting a return to VFR this
evening for all northern terms. MVFR becoming VFR at southern
terms. NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20-30kt. LLWS likely at
all terms this afternoon into the evening.
Previous Discussion...
Northern Terms Today...IFR/LIFR with -SN likely. Becoming MVFR
cigs this afternoon. VCSH and BLSN/DRSN may reduce vsby briefly.
NW winds increasing this AM 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt. LLWS
possible at HUL later this afternoon.
Southern Terms Today...MVFR/IFR cigs this AM becoming VFR. NW
winds increasing this AM to 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.
All terms tonight...VFR cigs with many sites briefly going SKC.
W-NW winds 5-15kt.
Saturday...VFR early, then MVFR or lower in developing snow.
Saturday night...MVFR or lower in snow, then improving to VFR/MVFR
late.
Sunday...MVFR possible. Chance of snow.
Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible. Chance of snow,
especially eastern terminals.
Monday...MVFR or lower possible early, then VFR.
Tuesday...MVFR. Chance snow showers. Gusty NW possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions are worsening this early morning and expecting wind
shifts to the W in the next 1-3hrs. Gale Warning in effect from
5AM this morning till 5PM EST this evening for the Coastal
Waters out 25nm. W winds 20-30kt with gusts up to 40kt and seas
7-10ft. Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Intra- Coastal
Waters till 7PM EST this evening. W winds 15-25kt with gusts up
to 30kt and seas 3-6ft. Any remaining rain over the far eastern
waters this morning may reduce vsby less than 3nm at times. This
morning after the wind shift light freezing spray is likely as
temperatures rapidly fall. Sea surface water temperatures range
from 38-42F from the Downeast Coast out 25nm and east to the
Hague Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays. Tonight
expecting winds to rapidly drop below 15kt over the waters but
seas will remain elevated likely requiring a Small Craft
Advisory.
Small craft advisory level conditions are expected through the
weekend, mainly across the outer waters. In fact, small craft
advisory conditions look to persist through much of the early
to mid part of next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
MEZ001-002.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWD/SM/JS
AVIATION...TWD/JS
MARINE...TWD/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
