NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
305
FXUS61 KCAR 082344
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
744 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update for 00z aviation discussion
- Lowered Thursday AM lows with NBM10th percentile thanks to
increased confidence in maximum radiational cooling expected.
- Lowered dew points a couple degrees across the Central
Highlands, Bangor region into Interior Downeast up to S.
Aroostook County for Thursday afternoon.
- Increased southerly wind gusts across the terrain of the
Longfellow Mtns and into Aroostook County for Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant warming trend is expected beginning Thursday
when highs will approach 50 in most inland locations.
2) Low relative humidities combining with gusty winds Thursday
and Sunday afternoons may lead to increased fire weather
concerns from Southern Aroostook County southward where there
is no snowpack.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend is expected
beginning Thursday when highs will approach 50 in most inland
locations by mid afternoon on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure will shift to our south on Thursday allowing a
southwesterly return flow behind the high to usher in
significantly warmer air. The warmer air lifting into the region
will combine with the strong April sunshine to warm
temperatures to near 50 over many inland locations. A weakening
occluded front will cross the area Thursday night. However, the
air will remain mild behind the front with another warm day to
follow on Friday with highs near 50 across the far north and
into the mid to upper 50s over southern locations well inland. A
stronger frontal system will cross the area with some showers
late Friday into Friday night. This will be followed by cooler,
more seasonable temperatures on Saturday. However, warmer
conditions will return on Sunday as another high slides to our
south and a return flow ushers in warmer air allowing inland
highs to again reach 50. Monday may be even warmer with highs
from the low 50s across the north to the mid 50s over the
interior south. However, Monday will likely become
significantly more humid as low pressure tracking to our north
pulls moisture north across the area with some showers likely.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Low relative humidities combining with gusty
winds Thursday and Sunday afternoons may lead to increased fire
weather concerns from Southern Aroostook County southward where
there is no snowpack.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure sliding to our south will bring an increasing
southwesterly return flow on Thursday along with warming
temperatures. The air will remain dry with dew points only in
the low to mid 20s which will combine with afternoon high
temperatures near 50 to produce relative humidities from the
upper 20s to low 30s. On Thursday the lowest RHs will be along
and north of The Airline (Route 9) where the southerly winds
will mix down dryer air. Along the shoreline expecting higher
RHs in the 40-60 percent range with the wind off the water.
Across Northern Maine with snowpack expecting RHs in the 30-40
percent range but little concerns where snow remains. Dead
grasses and forest tinder can dry up very quickly under these
conditions resulting in an fire danger concern where winds, RHs
and fuels all line up.
High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend bringing
another surge of dry air across the region. The high will drop to
the southwest on Sunday as the airmass warms a bit. The combination
of high pressure to our southwest and lower pressure to the
northeast will bring gusty northwesterly to westerly winds. High
temperatures in the low 50s will combine with dew points in the low
20s to produce relative humidities from the upper 20s to low 30s
over the interior south Sunday afternoon. The combination of the dry
air, gusty winds, and April sunshine will cause fine fuels such as
dead grasses, leaves, and forest duff to quickly dry.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight and Thursday...VFR. Winds light and variable tonight.
Winds becoming S tomorrow 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt
possible.
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR. S 5-15kts with gusts to 20kts.
Friday...VFR, dropping to MVFR across the north around midday and
over the south during the afternoon. S wind 5 to 10 kt.
Friday night...IFR over the north becoming MVFR late. MVFR dropping
to IFR across the south. NW wind around 5 kt over the north and S
around 5 kt becoming NW across the south.
Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR over the north and VFR across the
south. NW wind around 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.
Sunday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt becoming SW.
Sunday night...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR. S wind 5 to 10 kt.
Monday...IFR becoming MVFR over the south late. S wind 10 to 15
kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas below SCA through tomorrow afternoon.
A SCA, and possibly a gale for the offshore waters, will likely
be needed late Sunday night through Tuesday for SW winds
gusting up to 30 kt. Otherwise, wind and seas should be below
SCA from late this week into the coming weekend. Seas may build
up to 5 ft Sunday night and 9 ft Monday in response to the
winds.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/21/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
