NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
159
FXUS61 KCAR 031826
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
126 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front crosses the area tonight. Low pressure exits
to the east through the southern Maritimes Tuesday, followed by
high pressure ridging in Tuesday night. Low pressure tracks
across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday, near the coast of
Maine Wednesday night, then out into the waters east of Nova
Scotia by late Thursday. High pressure then builds in through
Friday. A complex storm system then impacts the area Friday
night and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface ridge will exit to the east this evening as the cold
front approaches from the west. The 12Z models are in good
agreement with the progression of the rain into the region. By
early tonight, rain will begin in the south due to the tropical
moisture off the Mid Atlantic coast moving north. Shortly after,
the cold front will quickly move into the area, bringing rain
across the area. The majority of rainfall will be early in the
night due to the quick progression of the front. Breezy S winds
will switch to W after midnight and generally increase. By
Tuesday, the front will exit as high pressure moves in. The main
concern is the gusty NW winds that will begin in the morning and
increase throughout the day. Weak trees from the previous storm
and gusts up to 45 mph could cause scattered to isolated power
outages. The NW winds and moisture behind the system could
produce some Lawrencian plumes, but with the temps in the low
40s, these will be in the form of rain showers. By Tuesday
night, the surface ridge builds north, pushing the rest of the
showers out of the area. Though NW winds will decrease, winds
will still be fairly breezy throughout the night. Some cloud
cover and a well mixed boundary layer will keep temps in the low
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave ridging exits to the east on
Wednesday. Depending on how fast this exits to the east, will
determine how quickly any precipitation moves in Wednesday
afternoon. With 12z guidance suggesting precipitation holds off
except for possibly far W areas late Wednesday afternoon, have
gone ahead and lowered pops for Wednesday - keeping all but far
W portions of N Somerset county dry. Highs on Wednesday should
be near to slightly below normal.
A northern stream trough moves into Maine from the eastern Great
Lakes Wednesday night, then exits to the east on Thursday. The
question is how far south does the main mid-upper level energy
go with this system. This will determine the northern extent of
the precipitation shield with this system. Right now the Crown
of Maine is on the northern edge of this shield, so there is
some question how much if any precipitation falls there
Wednesday night - with higher confidence from the Central
Highlands/S Aroostook south of measurable precipitation (so
likely pops Crown of Maine and categorical pops elsewhere). What
there is high confidence in, is if there is precipitation, it
should change to all snow over the N Woods and northern portions
of the Central Highlands. Less certainty over areas to the east
and immediate south - with all rain across Downeast Maine and
the Bangor/Penobscot Region. Precipitation tapers off from NW to
SE Monday, with all eastern areas becoming rain. For now
looking at snow amounts general around an inch or less, except
for 1-3 inches across higher elevations, with possibly towards 6
inches of snow at the top of Katahdin. For total liquid
equivalent - looking at less than 1/4 of an inch across the
Crown of Maine with 1/2 to 3/4 of inch elsewhere - with heaviest
amounts across Downeast Maine.
There should also be some gusty winds with this system in the
30-45mph range - with the strongest gusts across higher
elevations and near the immediate coast. The most likely timing
for the strongest gusts is late Wednesday night and Thursday.
These winds could bring down some larger branches and power
lines, especially in higher elevations with some heavy wet
snow.
Lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees above normal and
highs on Thursday a few degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northern stream ridging builds in Thursday night, with its axis
exiting to the east on Friday. Thursday night should be dry as a
result. Depending on exactly how fast the ridge access exits to
the east on Friday will determine how fast any precipitation
builds in ahead of the next system. With 12z guidance trending
drier (makes sense given overall amplified nature of the flow),
did lower pops a bit, limiting chance pops to only far W zones.
Precipitation could start as snow across the Crown of Maine and
far NW zones.
Another northern stream trough builds in from the eastern Great
Lakes Friday night, then lifts to the northeast on Saturday
morning, followed by a northern stream shortwave crossing late
Saturday. The result should be a rain/snow mix across the North
changing to all rain Friday night across the North and all rain
elsewhere. The rain should taper off to showers from NW to SE on
Saturday, possibly mixing with snow late across NW Aroostook.
Little or no accumulation is expected with this system, with the
main surface low tracking down the Saint Lawrence River Valley.
Ridging builds in from the southeast Saturday night, so it
should be dry, except for maybe some lingering precipitation
early.
A developing full latitude trough approaches from the west
Sunday, then builds into the eastern US through Monday. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing, strength
and track of the associated surface low. Do expect over running
precipitation to develop Sunday with some question as to how far
north any precipitation gets. Precipitation should then
overspread the entire area Sunday night, then continue into
Monday. If the low track is near the Maine coast, then should
see mainly snow across the North. However, a more northern
track could see a change over to rain across at least parts of
the north by Monday. Also, still quite a bit of variability on
the end time of precipitation on Monday.
It does appear that there is the potential for this storm to be
on the stronger side, so gusty winds are once again in play -
quite possibly widespread.
Given the uncertainty both inherent in a forecast a week away
and in above normal model spread - it is too early to specify
what impacts this system might have. There is enough potential
through that it bears watching.
Temperatures should be near to below normal Thursday night-
Monday, with above normal uncertainty in the Sunday-Monday time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions for all terminals this evening. Then conditions
decrease after 00Z to MVFR/IFR cigs in rain showers. Vsby will
drop shortly after for all sites. Conditions will remain until
Tuesday afternoon, then VFR conditions for all terminals. VFR
will remain through Tuesday night. Tonight, S winds 5-10 kts,
switching to WNW after midnight. Tuesday, NW winds 15-25 kts
with gusts up to 45 kts. Tuesday night, WNW winds 5-10 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday: VFR. W-SW winds G15-20KT possible.
Wednesday Night: IFR becoming likely by late at night. SW winds
G15-20KT possible in the evening, then LLWS possible at southern
terminals at night.
Thursday: IFR or lower probable early, likely becoming VFR in
the afternoon. N-NW winds G20-35KT possible, strongest at
southern terminals.
Thursday night and Friday: VFR, with a low chance of MVFR or
lower late at western terminals. NW winds G15-25KT possible
Thursday evening. SW winds G15-20KT possible Friday afternoon.
.Friday night-Saturday: IFR or lower probable, possibly
improving to MVFR late Saturday. LLWS possible Friday night. NW
winds G15-25KT possible Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will begin with SCA gust tonight, then
increase to gale force winds by early Tuesday morning. A Gale
Warning will continue through Tuesday to late Tuesday night.
Then winds decrease to SCA by early Wednesday morning.
SHORT TERM: SCA conditions on the coastal ocean waters Wednesday
morning becoming sub-SCA throughout Wednesday afternoon. Gales
likely develop on all waters by late Wednesday night, then
should continue into Thursday night, before probably falling to
SCA levels overnight. SCA conditions are probable on the coastal
ocean waters Friday-Saturday and possible then on the intra-
coastal waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...ARL
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...ARL/PM
Marine...ARL/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
