NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
799
FXUS61 KCAR 282333
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated aviation section for tonight and tomorrow with 0z TAF
issuance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much below normal level temperatures Sunday and Monday. The
coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures will recover Tuesday into Wednesday.
2) A light to possibly moderate snow accumulation is likely for
Bangor and Downeast Maine Tuesday night, which could lead to
travel impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Much below normal level temperatures Sunday
and Monday. The coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night
into Monday. Temperatures will recover Tuesday into Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A strong cold front will cross the region early tonight. Very
little precipitation with the front, with just an isolated
rain/snow shower. Arctic air in the wake of the front will
bring much below normal level temperatures to the region Sunday
into Monday. High temperatures Sunday will range from around 10
to 15 north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Isolated to
scattered snow showers will also occur Sunday. Low temperatures
Sunday night will range from around 10 to 15 below zero north,
to around zero to 5 below Downeast. Apparent temperatures could
reach Cold Weather Advisory levels across northern portions of
the forecast area Sunday night. High temperatures Monday will
range from around 10 to 15 north, to the upper teens to around
20 Downeast. Low temperatures Monday night will range from
around zero to 5 below north, with single digits above zero
Downeast. Temperatures will recover to near normal levels
Tuesday, reaching slightly above normal levels Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A light to possibly moderate snow accumulation
is likely for Bangor and Downeast Maine Tuesday night, which
could lead to travel impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A small northern stream shortwave trough will phase with the
subtropical jet over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon,
with diffluence aloft favoring the development of a surface low
pressure over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening. Model guidance
varies with how quickly the low will develop and the associated
precipitation field north of it. Deterministic, ensemble, and AI
generally has about a quarter inch of QPF across Downeast,
quickly tapering to a trace or less north of the Katahdin
Region. Depending on the exact track and strength of the low
rain could mix in on the immediate coast with heavier QPF
reaching farther north, or a weaker solution such as the
Canadian would keep all snow on the coast but less QPF,
especially further inland. Probabilities of at least 4 inches of
snow are generally 15 to 40 percent across interior Downeast
into the Penobscot Valley, indicating potential for heavier snow
scenarios if the surface low is stronger. Accumulations between
1 and 4 inches are most likely across Downeast and the Bangor
area, mainly overnight Tuesday night for the tail end of the
Tuesday evening commute and snow on roads possibly lingering for
the Wednesday morning commute. Overall impacts are not expected
to be significant, but snow covered roads could cause some
travel difficulties, especially if some of the heavier QPF/snow
scenarios occur.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front with an abrupt wind shift from S to NW is occurring
this evening, around 1z at FVE first and eventually around 4/5z
at BGR/BHB. LLWS will diminish as the front passes. Can`t rule
out brief MVFR with the front from PQI N, with perhaps an
isolated shower, with otherwise, remaining VFR before and after
the frontal passage. Winds will be NW around 10 kts behind the
front with a few higher gusts.
For Sunday, mostly VFR, though can`t rule out a few periods of
MVFR ceilings at any site. That said, feel that VFR should be
the most common condition, and went with this in the TAFs. NW
winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts.
Sunday night, VFR with NW winds 5-10 kts.
Monday/Monday Night: VFR. WNW winds around 10 kts gusting to
20kts, becoming light out of the SW overnight.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 30 kts.
Tuesday Night: MVFR developing, with IFR or lower possible for
BGR and Downeast airports in snow. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Wednesday/Wednesday Night: MVFR possible, mainly north,
otherwise VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 kts, shifting SW and
decreasing slightly during the evening.
Thursday: VFR likely. N wind 5 to 15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the
waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, through
1 AM Sunday. On the intra-coastal waters a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through 7 PM this evening. Small craft
advisory conditions re-develop on all the waters late tonight
then persist into Sunday night. Isolated/scattered snow showers
Sunday. Light freezing spray early Sunday. Moderate freezing
spray Sunday night into Monday.
Winds, seas, and freezing spray will decrease below advisory
levels on Monday, remaining below criteria into Monday evening.
Winds and seas increase again late Monday night, with winds
likely reaching gale force by Tuesday (80 percent chance over
the outer waters, 60 percent chance over the intracoastal
waters). Seas during this period are expected to be 4 to 9 feet,
with the highest seas farther offshore. Winds and seas decrease
to advisory levels Tuesday night into early Wednesday, before
falling below advisory levels later Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday
uncertainty increases regarding the timing and strength of a
push of south winds. Another period of gale or SCA conditions is
possible late week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWS/CN
AVIATION...TF/MWS/CN
MARINE...MWS/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
