NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
963
FXUS61 KCAR 281133
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Quebec will build south across the region
today. Low pressure crosses the region Monday then lifts north
of the region Monday night into Tuesday, remaining north of the
region Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Wintry mix on Monday to create dangerous travel conditions
* Uncertainty still remains on location and amounts for greatest
ice amounts
Discussion:
An occluded low will approach from the west Sunday night,
pulling through our forecast area Monday through Monday night.
As this system crosses the CWA, a triple point low will develop
and bisect our region, tracking along a line roughly from
Greenville through Houlton. The development of a triple point
low will aid in maintaining CAD across the north, and lifting a
warm front through the area such that all wintry precipitation
types will be possible. Low SLRs, combined with sleet, freezing
rain, and plain rain will create a heavy layer of wintry
accumulation. Ice, sleet, and slush from melting snow will
create slick surfaces and lead to dangerous travel conditions,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA.
There still remains uncertainty in amounts of each precip type
as well as locations, as slight shifts in the temperature
profile could spell a completely different story for impacts.
Ice accumulation will likely remain below a quarter inch over
most of the area, but there could be a tenth of an inch of
accumulation along a band somewhere across the north, depending
on the exact track and speed of the triple point low. Based on
forecast profiles and the height of the warm nose (around 850
mb), sleet may end up being a greater threat in the north, with
pure sleet amounts approaching at least one inch. With how far
north the warm air is intruding, snow amounts will be on the
lighter side, generally less than 4 inches. Coastal Downeast has
the greatest chance of remaining all rain, though it is possible
a dry slot stemming from the triple point low could create a
pause in rain through Monday afternoon that may cut current rain
amount projections in half should this dry slot come to
fruition.
There is also question as to how long a low level dry layer will
linger at storm onset through the area. If this dry layer takes
longer to saturate than guidance currently suggests (and is
often the case in patterns such as this one with very cold air
prior to the storm) then precip start times will be later,
potentially not starting until Monday afternoon. A stronger dry
layer would also introduce additional evaporational cooling that
currently is not captured by guidance, and may shift precip
types colder at onset, leading to more snow and sleet than
freezing rain and plain rain. Downeast, terrain allows for
warmer, moisture air to more quickly rush into the region,
however a snow pack currently lingers in this area and may help
keep the near surface layer cold enough to support more freezing
rain than is currently in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
*Wintry mix continues Monday night, ending on Tuesday
*Gusty winds Tuesday into Tuesday night
Key Message 1...
Triple point low pressure system continues to swing through New
England, with snow prominent in the far north, a wintry mix
prominent from Van Buren to just south of Houlton, and rain
prominent in the interior Downeast and coastal regions. As the
associated front passes through Maine and colder air begins to
work in behind the frontal system, wintry mix transitions over
to snow in the north, and rain is confined to the immediate
Downeast coastline. Overnight, potential for 4 inches of
additional snowfall in the Crown of Maine, and roughly 1 to 3
inches in northern Maine and portions of the central Highlands.
North and Crown of Maine could see a quarter to half an inch of
sleet overnight. Highest totals for ice accumulation are
anticipated in northeast Maine overnight, around 0.1 to 0.2
inches of accumulation. The rest of northern Maine could see a
trace to 0.1 inches of ice. Precipitation chances decrease of
front moves into New Brunswick. Temperatures quickly drop into
the lower 20s in the north, and mid-20s Downeast. This could
cause any residual moisture from recent rainfall to freeze over,
causing some slick spots, so exercise caution when traveling.
Exact snow/sleet/ice totals with this system are subject to
change based on the storm track, as a northerly track will
result in more sleet in the north, while a southerly track will
wrap in more cold air, leading to larger snow totals. So
continue to monitor the forecast for updates.
Key Message 2...
Pressure gradient force associated with passing low pressure
system resulting in wind gusts 25-30 mph possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Winds generally from the west. Gusts stay
elevated until gradient relaxes on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
*Cold temperatures through the weekend
*Potential for system late next week
Key Messages 1...
Behind the aforementioned frontal system
Monday into Tuesday, a few shortwave disturbances could move
through Maine, bringing a slight chance for some light snow
showers in the north. Cold temperatures linger Wednesday through
the weekend, with daytime highs staying in the low teens in the
north, and the teens to 20s Downeast. Overnight lows around or
below zero in the north, and generally in the low teens
Downeast. Wind chills in the negative teens overnight could be
possible late this week in the north.
Key Message 2...
Next chance for some significant precipitation will be early
this upcoming weekend, as a low pressure system from Central
Canada moves south closer to western Maine. The EURO model shows
the primary low swing just north of Maine, with little to no
precipitation, but the GFS has a coastal low develop off of the
parent low in Canada, bringing a chance for precipitation
throughout the state. Kept precipitation chances around a
slight chance to chance, until models get in better agreement.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
630 AM Update: LLWS continues to mix out across northern
terminals over the next couple of hours. Gusts will increase
into this afternoon before winds become light overnight. Cigs
will begin to decrease towards IFR by 12z Monday at Downeast
terminals.
Previous Discussion:
VFR conditions continue across all terminals today
through tonight. LLWS will last through the early morning hours
before mixing out, with NW winds 5 to 10 kts gusting 15 to 20
kts through this afternoon. Winds become light and variable
tonight. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate through Monday
morning with precipitation moving through. All terminals have a
chance at seeing a mix of SN, RA, ZR, and PL, however Downeast
terminals will likely be mostly RA, FVE could be mostly SN, and
a full wintry mix is possible for terminals in between. Winds SE
on Monday at 5 to 0 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Snow, or a wintry mix transitioning to
snow, north. Rain transitioning to snow Downeast. E/SE
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming
W/SW.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR north with a chance of snow showers. VFR/MVFR
Downeast with a slight chance of snow showers. W/SW
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance
of snow showers north. VFR Downeast. SW winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.
Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A
chance of light snow or snow showers. S/SW winds 5 to
10 knots, becoming W/SW Wednesday night. W/SW winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming variable Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gusts 25 to 30 kts continue over the coastal waters
this morning, gradually tapering off through the day today. Seas
that are topping out at around 5 ft will also decrease today as
well, and conditions should fall below SCA levels this
afternoon. Light freezing spray will continue through this
morning as well, before temperatures warm enough to reduce this
threat this afternoon. Light winds return tonight before SE
winds increase through the day on Monday with a low pressure
system moving through the area, approaching gale strength
towards the end of the day on Monday. The low pressure system
will likely bring all rain over the waters on Monday and rain
could limit visibility.
SHORT TERM: Gale Watch in effect for late Monday night into
Tuesday night. Light freezing rain Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Rain over the waters on Monday night, and snow on
Tuesday. Seas gradually rise up to 12 ft by Tuesday. Winds from
the S/SE on Monday night, shifting to the W by Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday
night for MEZ001-002.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday
night for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
051.
Gale Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...AES/ASB
Marine...AES/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
