NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
314
FXUS61 KCAR 242344
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
744 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- (730 PM Update): Updated sky cover, PoP, QPF, and Wx to better
distill hourly details with the incoming cold front. The best
chance for snow showers is between 6 and 13z across the area.
An isolated heavier snow shower is possible across northeast
Aroostook County around the time of the morning commute. Some
localized travel impacts are possible. Increasing and gusty
winds are expected immediately behind the front in the
morning. The strongest gusts between 30 and 40mph are expected
for the Bangor area and Downeast. While these winds do not
reach advisory criteria, loose objects may still be blown
around and should be secured.
- Increased chances of mainly rain for all but the St John
Valley and portions of the North Woods by Thursday afternoon.
- Increased winds on Friday, with a resultant lowering of wind
chills Friday afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow Wednesday night becomes mainly rain from south to north
on Thursday, then changes back to snow across the north
Thursday night before ending. This should impact the Thursday
morning commute and possibly the Thursday afternoon commute in
the St John Valley and portions of the North Woods.
2) Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to spread across
the region from Friday night into Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Snow Wednesday night becomes mainly rain from south to north on
Thursday, then changes back to snow across the north Thursday
night before ending. This should impact the Thursday morning
commute and possibly the Thursday afternoon commute in the St
John Valley and portions of the North Woods.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Light snow will develop across the region later Wednesday night
in advance of approaching low pressure. Snow accumulations
through Wednesday night will generally be around an inch or
less. The snow could impact travel later Wednesday night.
A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the region from
Thursday through Thursday night. At the surface this will result in
a series of low pressure systems riding along a frontal boundary
draped across Maine on Thursday, that pushes to the south Thursday
night as a cold front. For now, things seem to be headed towards the
idea of a low track more towards northern Maine, but there is
still quite a bit of spread in the models on this - ranging from
a surface low track to the north of Maine to one near the
coast. The low track will go a long way to determining how fast
and how far north the change over from snow to rain is on
Thursday.
What is also uncertain is how much of a gap there will be between
the penultimate and final shortwave in that sequence, and if there
will be any lull in the precipitation because of it. Regardless,
should see snow change to rain from S to N Thursday, with the
precipitation rain by mid afternoon for all but the St John Valley
and portions of the North Woods, where it should be a mix of snow
and rain. The precipitation then changes back to snow Thursday
evening across the North before tapering off around/after midnight
from N to S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to
spread across the region from Friday night into Sunday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Canadian high pressure builds in Friday-
Saturday, then settles to the south by Sunday, then moves offshore
Sunday night.
This will allow for cold air to return Friday-Saturday, with the
airmass then moderating into early next week. High temperatures on
Friday should occur in the morning, then fall off in the afternoon
to the teens across Northern Aroostook and Somerset and
Northern and Central Piscataquis counties, the 20s across
Southeastern Aroostook, Northern and Central Penobscot, Central
Piscataquis and Northern Washington County and around 30 to the
lower 30s elsewhere. NW winds gusting to 25-35 mph will cause
wind chills by late afternoon in the single digits across most
of the North, except N Penobscot and SE Aroostook which should
have wind chills in the teens. Wind Chills across Downeast Maine
and the Bangor/Penobscot Region should mainly be in the 20s by
late afternoon.
Lows Friday night should be from the single digits below zero to
around 5 above across the North and in the mid single digits to
lower teens elsewhere. Gusty NW winds should bring wind chills
down to the low-mid teens below zero across most of the North to
around 0 over coastal Downeast. These wind chills could cause
frost bite in exposed skin in 30-60 minutes.
Highs on Saturday should be around 15-20 degrees below normal
and lows Saturday around 10-15 degrees below normal.
Temperatures moderate sharply Sunday and Sunday night with highs
and lows around 5-10 degrees below normal. The winds should be
relatively light during this time frame, so the wind chills
should not be significant in terms of their potential impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight through 8z...VFR. Flurries are possible, especially at
northern terminals. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
southwest/west 10 to 15 knots.
Early Wednesday Morning from 8z to 13z...
Snow showers and MVFR ceilings are likely for a couple hours at
Aroostook County terminals. Brief IFR visibility is possible in
heavier snow showers. VFR elsewhere. Winds increase at all
terminals around 12z with gusts to 25 kts at northern terminals
and 30 to 35 kts at southern terminals.
Wednesday after 13z...VFR. West winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 25
kts at northern terminals and 30 to 35 kts at southern
terminals, gradually shifting northwest by midday.
Wednesday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late wih light snow
developing. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
south/southeast around 10 knots.
Thursday-Thursday night: MVFR or lower likely. LLWS likely at
southern terminals. S winds G15-20KT possible northern terminals
Thursday, W-NW winds G15-20KT possible at northern terminals
late Thursday night.
Friday: Becoming VFR throughout early. NW winds G15-30KT
probable.
Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW-N winds G15-20KT possible Friday
evening.
Saturday night-Sunday: Low chance of a brief period of MVFR from
time to time, otherwise VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters
from this evening through Wednesday afternoon. Small craft
advisory conditions then develop again later Wednesday night. A
chance of rain/snow later Wednesday night.
Gales are likely Thursday-Thursday night on the coastal ocean
waters with SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters. SCA
conditions then likely on all waters Friday, then possible on
all waters Friday night. The SCA conditions could linger on the
coastal ocean waters into Saturday morning, otherwise there
should be sub-SCA conditions on all waters for the weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PM/CN
AVIATION...PM/CN/MS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
