NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
833
FXUS61 KCAR 050703
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
203 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide south of the area this morning. Low
pressure will approach this afternoon and track along the coast
tonight. High pressure will approach from the west on Thursday
and slide south of the area Friday. Low pressure will track
north of the area Friday night. High pressure will build in late
Saturday then another low will approach late Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Before daybreak...Scattered cloud deck across Northern Maine
during the predawn hours as temperatures are falling back in the
30s with 40F at the shoreline. Winds have mostly relaxed as
decoupling occurring at most sites but elevated areas are still
seeing some mixing resulting in gusts 15-20mph at times. Winds
will continue to relax as the winds aloft relax with weakening
pressure gradient this morning.
Today high pressure located east of the Carolinas over the open
Atlantic will slide the surface ridging east of Maine today. Our
next weather maker is within a 500mb shortwave pushing through
the Great Lakes this morning. The surface feature is an Alberta
Clipper style low pressure system. Winds will turn lightly SW
today with warm air advection underway and moisture advects
north. Highs top out in the mid 40s north with upper 40s to near
50F for the Bangor Region to Downeast coast.
By sunset in response to warm air advecting in aloft light rain
will develop from SW to NE across the CWA heading into the
evening. Low pressure will slowly deepen and the track of the
low has come into very good agreement in the models. Low will be
leaving the Champlain Valley of Vermont and heading for the
Maine coast late tonight. This is a very favorable track for
colder air to seep into the area tonight especially in the
northern 1/2 of the CWA. Looking at critical thicknesses the
540dam line for 1000-500mb thickness dives south to the Interior
Downeast tonight. Then looking at the 850-700mb thickness the
1540 line is down over the Downeast meaning much of the CWA is
favorable for snow. Lastly the boundary layer is the important
differing factor so the 1000mb-850mb thickness we shows the 1300
line intially over Northern Maine but diving SE through the
night.
What we are looking at is the gradual cooling of the column
through the night from the evening into the overnight hours. So
expect rain across much of the Bangor region to Downeast coast.
Across the Central Highlands and Northern Maine expecting rain
to mix with snow as temperatures cool to near 32F along with the
wet bulb temp. Precipitation is not expected to be very heavy
so rain/snow mix in places where the boundary layer is very
marginally favorable for snow. Across the higher elevations of
the North Woods >1000ft, Soucey Hill on Route 11 and Knowles
Corner/Mt. Chase areas along with the Greenville area expect
rain to change to all snow with some accumulations tonight.
Thankfully for pavement the road subsurface temperatures are
above freezing therefore not expecting much accumulations on
pavement but slush is possible in those colder spots. Most
locations that see snow will only see a dusting up to 0.5 inch
on grassy and cold surfaces like cars and decks. Across the
higher terrain >1000ft looking at potentially 1-2 inches, again
mainly confined in the North Woods. Across the higher mountains
like Katahdin will be seeing 3-7 inches through tomorrow midday.
In terms of rainfall Downeast and Bangor region to interior
Downeast expecting a good soaking again with 0.5 to 1 inch
possible. Right before daybreak cannot rule out some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain across the Interior Downeast including
the Route 9 corridor to potentially Route 1. Temperatures
across the North generally low 30s with low to mid 30s Downeast.
Thursday any precipitation in the morning tapers to showers with
most being rain showers but across the north cannot rule out
snow showers. Low pressure in response to 500mb shortwave going
negative in the Maritimes will rapidly deepen and tighten the
pressure gradient in the morning into the afternoon. Expecting
once again solid mixing 3-4.5kft and gusty NW winds to develop.
Wind gusts 35-40mph across the north, 35-45mph for the Central
Highlands and 35-45mph for Downeast. The Downeast will flirt
with wind advisory criteria but holding off on headlines at this
time to give the following shift time to watch the trends in
guidance. Highs on Thursday in the upper 30s struggling to get
to low 40s North, upper 30s for the Moosehead Region and mid 40s
for the Bangor region to Downeast coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure south of the area will bring a mostly clear and cold
night Thursday night with lows from near 20 in the northwest to
around 30 along the coast. Clouds will then increase on Friday as
low pressure approaches from Ontario and lifts a weak warm front
across the area. Rain across southern areas and snow over the north
may begin to spread across the region late in the day. Low pressure
lifting northwest of the area should then pull warmer air north
changing precipitation to all rain overnight Friday night. This
looks like a generally light rain with a tenth to perhaps locally a
quarter inch of rain across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain should taper off Saturday as drier air pushes into the area
late in the day. Clouds will give way to some breaks of sunshine
late Saturday as cold air begins to follow the system. High pressure
will quickly follow Saturday night bringing a clear to partly cloudy
and cold night with lows from near 20 north to the upper 30s along
the coast.
Another storm system in our active and fast moving pattern will
begin to dig into the Midwest Sunday morning and track our way
Sunday afternoon. Rain will likely spread across the area late in
the day, possibly mixed with snow over far northern and western
areas. The rapidly moving low will lift across the region Sunday
into Sunday evening bringing a period of rain followed by a dry
intrusion quickly surging in and ending steady rain late Sunday
night. This will be followed by a cloudy to partly sunny day on
Monday as the drier air pulls north into the area. Dry weather
should persist into Tuesday before another fast moving clipper
type low approaches on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Before 12z...VFR cigs north, SKC south. W-NW winds
5-15kt gusting to 20kt.
Today...VFR becoming MVFR cigs late. SW winds 5-15kt.
Tonight...MVFR becoming IFR/LIFR. RA/SN mix north, RA south. E
winds before 06z shifting N between 06-09z then NW by 12z.
5-15kt from the E and N then 10-20kt from the NW with gusts
25-35kt.
Thursday...IFR/LIFR becoming VFR/MVFR cigs. NW winds 10-20kt
with gusts 25-35kt.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR. W wind 10 to 15 kt.
Friday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late. SW wind
10 kt.
Friday night...MVFR dropping to IFR. S wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...IFR, improving to MVFR then VFR. NW wind 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.
Sunday...VFR, lowering to MVFR then IFR late. E wind 5 to 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The previous Gale Warning has been expired with SCA
wind gusts, few gusts up to 35kt this morning. SCA wind gusts
through late morning then winds/seas below SCA through sunset.
After sunset this evening S winds rapidly increase to SCA levels
then shifting W-NW tonight and returning to Gales. A new Gale
Warning in effect from 1AM to 10PM Thursday for the Coastal
Waters out 25nm and Gale Warning from 1AM to 1PM Thursday for
the Intra-Coastal waters. On Thursday the Intra-Coastal waters
can expect NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas
3 to 6 ft. For the Coastal Waters expect NW winds 25 to 35 kt
with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain tonight into
Thursday will reduce vsby less than 3nm at times. Sea surface
temperatures range from 50-53F from the Downeast coast out 25nm
and east to the Hague Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy
Bays.
SHORT TERM:
Winds should drop below gale early Thursday evening then below
SCA late Thursday evening. A SCA, or possibly a gale, might be
needed Friday night into early Saturday. Another SCA may be
needed Sunday night into Monday. Seas around 8 ft early Thursday
night dropping down to 4 ft late. Seas may build up to 8 ft late
Friday night through Saturday then subside Saturday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...JS/MB
Marine...JS/MB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
