NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
544
FXUS61 KCAR 200228
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
928 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded front crosses the region early tonight, with a cold
front then crossing. High pressure will cross the region later
Saturday. A warm front crosses the region Saturday night through
early Sunday, with a cold front then crossing late. High
pressure crosses the region Monday. Low pressure crosses the
region Tuesday then intensifies while exiting across the
Maritimes Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
* Key Messages:
1) Strong to possibly damaging southerly winds expected for
coastal and interior Downeast as well as the Bangor region this
afternoon and evening. Scattered power outages are expected.
Northern areas will see strong southerly winds this afternoon
and evening, becoming westerly tonight. Isolated power outages
in the north.
2) Rain up to 1" through this evening in combination with
significant snowmelt may result in some localized water ponding
in poorly drained areas.
3) A low chance of a flash freeze on roadways tonight as
temperatures fall below freezing, mostly in the north.
What Has Changed:
* 9 PM Update: Storm Warning on the waters has been dropped to a
Gale warning
* 8 PM Update: Washington county hazards have been allowed to
expire as the front is exiting eastward into New Brunswick at
this time. Caution is still advised if traveling as downed
trees and powerlines may remain.
* 7 PM Update: Advisory allowed to expire in Upper Penobscot
Valley, and High Wind Warnings in Bangor region down through
coastal Hancock county have been allowed to expire. The
hazards further east remain for another hour as the front
continues to push eastward. Advisories across the north remain
behind the FROPA for gusty W winds behind the departing low
through tonight.
* Upgraded central Washington county to a High Wind Warning
Key Message 1...
Current observations show a powerful low-level jet just overhead with
wind speeds of over 90 kts moving through our our area. Winds
mixing down from this jet are driving the strong gusts this
afternoon and evening. The core of the jet will pass through the
Downeast region between 3 and 6 PM resulting in the strongest
gusts over the area during this time. Winds will be less farther
north this afternoon and evening as the jet will be weaker over
this region. The strongest winds are likely to be with frontal
passage where vertical mixing will be enhanced. Currently
watching a low potential for a weak squall line to pass through
the north which could further increase the wind gust threat. A
brief lull in the winds possible early tonight after frontal
passage before westerly winds pick up, gusting to 40 kts,
especially in the north. Further isolated power outages are
possible. Winds gradually decrease during the day on Saturday.
Key Message 2...
Rainfall up to 1 inch is still expected across the region. The
highest totals are likely to be found in the Central Highlands.
Significant snowpack loss has already been observed and may
contribute to some localized ponding in vulnerable areas but
widespread flooding is not expected.
Key Message 3...
Behind the cold front, temperatures rapidly drop early tonight
but don`t reach freezing until just after midnight. Model
soundings show some moderately drier air working in to the area
behind the front which, in combination with gusty winds, may dry
out the roadways before significant icing can occur. There is
high confidence in temperatures dipping below freezing tonight
so if roads are still wet they will become icy.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A clipper system will cross northern Maine Sunday drawing a
warm front across the region early, with a cold front following
late. Light snow is likely across northern Maine Sunday with
light accumulations possible, with a chance of light snow or
rain Downeast. The surface system exits across the Maritimes
Sunday night, with high pressure building toward the region
late. Aloft, an upper trof crosses the region. Across northern
areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
snow showers early then partly cloudy. Expect partly cloudy
skies Downeast. High pressure crosses the region Monday then
begins to exit across the Maritimes Monday night. Expect partly
sunny skies north, mostly sunny Downeast, Monday. Expect mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies early Monday night with clouds then
increasing. Slightly above normal level temperatures are
expected Sunday, with slightly below normal level temperatures
Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure tracking across Quebec province will draw a warm
front across the region early Tuesday. Secondary low pressure
then begins to develop across Downeast areas later Tuesday,
which intensifies while exiting across the Maritimes Tuesday
night. Precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop across
the region Tuesday then persist into Tuesday night before
tapering to snow showers late. Snow accumulations with this
system are still uncertain, dependent on how rapidly the
secondary low develops. The intensifying low exits east of Nova
Scotia Wednesday, with high pressure building toward the region
late. Could still have a slight chance of snow showers early
Wednesday, mostly across the north and mountains. Otherwise,
expect generally partly cloudy skies. High pressure should cross
the region Thursday, then begin to exit across the Maritimes
Thursday night while low pressure approaches from the west
drawing a warm front toward the region. Expect partly cloudy
skies early Thursday, with clouds then increasing. Light snow
should begin to expand across the region Thursday night,
possibly transitioning to a wintry mix late across Downeast
areas. The low should then cross the region Friday, though
specific details are still uncertain. Precipitation
chance/types/amounts will be dependent on how this system
eventually develops. Slightly below normal level temperatures
are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with near normal level
temperatures Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR at southern terminals through this evening and
LIFR/IFR for northern terminals with rain. Conditions improve
early tonight to MVFR and then VFR by midnight. A chance MVFR
could hang on at northern terminals through early Saturday. VFR
Saturday, then deteriorating to MVFR Saturday night.
Strong south winds at 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to around 50
kts in the south and 40 kts in the north continue to rapidly
shift W behind the frontal passage. Winds decrease overnight
but remain gusty up to 40 kts. Winds decrease Saturday morning
becoming S 5 to 10 kts Saturday night.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR early
with light snow then VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow/rain early.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots,
becoming west.
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers
north. VFR Downeast. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest.
Monday through Monday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots Monday. Northwest winds 10
to 15 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Monday night.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, then lowering to IFR/LIFR with snow.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast 10 to 15
knots.
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with snow.
East/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north/northwest.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Storm conditions on the waters are expected to continue through
early tonight before decreasing to gales with winds shifting to
westerly. Winds decrease to small craft criteria early Saturday
and finally decrease below all criteria Saturday afternoon.
Winds increase to gales Saturday night. Seas peak at around 20ft
on the outer waters early tonight before gradually subsiding to
just above small craft advisory criteria Saturday evening. Seas
increase again up to 10 ft Saturday night.
SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible Sunday into early
Monday. Small craft advisory conditions later Monday into
Monday night. A slight chance of rain Sunday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES/SM
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...AES/SM/CN
Marine...AES/SM/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
