NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
740
FXUS61 KCAR 050316
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1016 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight, then exit
across the Maritimes Wednesday. Low pressure will cross the
Gulf of Maine Wednesday night then exit to the east of the
Canadian Maritimes Thursday. High pressure will build in
Thursday night and then move east on Friday. Low pressure will
track northwest of the region Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Low pressure
exits across the Maritimes overnight, while high pressure
builds toward the region. Winds will diminish overnight with
building high pressure and the relaxing pressure gradient.
Expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies across the north and
mountains overnight, with mostly clear skies Downeast. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s north,
to the lower to mid 30s Downeast. Have also updated to adjust
for current conditions along with expected overnight
temperatures, clouds and winds.
Previous Discussion...
By Wednesday, the axis of the surface ridge will exit the
region as the next low pressure system tracks across the Great
Lakes and into New England. For the morning, the clouds will
increase ahead of the system with temps gradually increasing
throughout the day. By the afternoon and into the evening, the
center of the low will start to cross New England stretching the
warm front across the waters. By Wednesday night, the low will
move closer to the state. Rain will begin early in the night
with lighter rain showers, then bring heavier rain bands into
the region before midnight. High res QPF models show the center
of the low moving across Downeast around midnight, putting the
heavier rain on the north end of the center. This will bring
about an inch of rain to the Central Highlands and Downeast. As
the system intensifies, it will pick up speed and start to exit
early morning Thursday. The main question for earlier in the
night will be how much cold air will advect into the region with
the NW flow. As of this update, the NBM is the coldest
deterministic model. This gives a stronger possibility of snow
across the north with the higher chances in the North Woods.
This will all depend on the timing of the cold airmass moving
into the area before the system can exit. Nevertheless, areas in
the north could see measurable snow. NW winds will increase and
become gusty again in the early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clipper type system exits across the Canadian Maritimes
Thursday morning and then east of Nova Scotia by afternoon. Any
morning snow or rain across the north will give way to scattered
showers by midday. The bigger concern on Thursday will be the
gusty Northwest winds in the wake of the system. A strong
pressure gradient and fairly deep mixed layer will result in
winds gusting as high as 40 to 45 mph at times on Thursday. Wind
advisories will likely be needed as we will be close to wind
advisory criteria. A ridge of high pressure will build across
the area from the south Thursday night with partly cloudy skies
expected. Gusty northwest winds Thursday evening will diminish
later at night as the ridge axis crosses the region. Another low
will approach from the west on Friday with increasing clouds by
afternoon with just a chance of a bit of snow or rain north,
with the chance of rain for the Bangor region toward sunset on
Friday. Afternoon highs both Thursday and Friday will be a bit
below normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will track to the north and northeast of the region
Friday night through Saturday with some mainly light rain expected
for the first half of the weekend. After a brief break Saturday
night and early sunday, yet another fast moving system will approach
from the southwest later Sunday afternoon. This feature will bring
some rain or snow to the region. Another shot of cold air is
expected by early next week. High temperatures on Saturday will be
above normal, cooler on Sunday but still a bit above normal, then
below normal Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected overnight through
Wednesday. Once rain moves in Wednesday night, conditions will
decrease to MVFR/IFR cigs/vsby. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, diminishing to around 10
knots overnight. Northwesterly low level wind shear overnight.
West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots, becoming south/southwest 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest 15 to 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...MVFR/IFR, early than MVFR/VFR. NW wind G45kt.
Thursday night...VFR. NW wind diminishing.
Friday...VFR. W to SW wind 10 kt.
Friday night...MVFR or lower. S to SW wind 10 to 20 kt.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. Gusty W wind.
Sunday...MVFR. SE to S wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the waters
through 1 AM. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected
through the remainder of the overnight into Wednesday. Gale
force winds then develop again Wednesday night. A slight chance
of rain later Wednesday, then rain Wednesday night.
SHORT TERM: Gale Force winds are possible Thursday into Thursday
evening. Winds will then decrease to Small Craft Advisory levels
Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CN/ARL
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...CN/ARL/TWD
Marine...CN/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
