NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
841
FXUS61 KCAR 310725
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
225 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues moving north today. Low pressure develops
along the coast tonight, then strengthens as it moves east into
the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Additional weak disturbances
rotate through the area into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message 1: Cold today with lingering light snow and patchy
blowing/drifting snow today across far northern Maine.
Key Message 2: Snow will impact New Years Day travel with the
greatest accumulations expected across Downeast Maine starting
late tonight through New Years Day.
Discussion:
A strong 955mb low pressure system over northern Quebec will
continue to direct Arctic air into the area and cause gusty
winds today. While conditions will not be as bad as yesterday,
some patchy blowing snow is still possible across open areas
today as the cold temperatures make it easier for snow to be
lofted. Pockets of PVA collocated with ample 700mb moisture
across northern Maine and the Central Highlands will lead to
light snow and flurries through the day, with some light
accumulation expected over upslope west facing slopes in the
North Woods. The pressure gradient will relax tonight, but
increasing clouds are expected ahead of the next system.
A vigorous shortwave trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes
this evening, progressing into New England after midnight before
becoming negatively tilted Thursday morning near the NH/ME
border. A weak surface low will quickly transition to the coast
and strengthen during the day Thursday, resulting in potential
for significant snow accumulations across Downeast Maine,
especially along the coast. Guidance, including ensembles and
the NBM, continues to shift stronger and further NW with the low
and snowfall, showing a potential deformation zone setting up as
far north as eastern Aroostook County Thursday evening. A Winter
Storm Watch has been issued for Downeast Maine where confidence
is highest, but an expansion of winter weather headlines may be
needed in subsequent updates today if trends continue. In some
stronger scenarios as shown on a few 0z EPS members, wind gusts
in excess of 45mph are possible with falling and blowing snow
for eastern Aroostook County. The greatest period of impact
appears to be during the day Thursday for Downeast Maine, and
Thursday evening for Aroostook County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
*Potential for significant snowfall in northeastern Maine
Thursday night, with chance of blowing snow
*Very cold temperatures and wind chills through end of the week
Key Message 1...
Shortwave disturbance causing snow showers
throughout the Downeast and eastern Maine region continues to
curve northwest into New Brunswick. Additional disturbances and
vorticity swings in behind this original shortwave, further
providing instability for some continued showers. Decent
pressure gradient keeps gusty winds throughout the night, and
with the recent snowfall having relatively high SLRs, blowing
snow could occur, significantly reducing visibility. High wind
gusts could also cause isolated power outages.
Depending on the track this system takes, and how much
additional instability feeds into the low, there could be a
potential for either a few inches, or significant, accumulating
snow, predominantly in the north. Majority of the models do
have the low center going vertically up along the eastern border
of the state, but how it swings northwest will determine how
much additional snowfall the north will receive. The NAM and
ECMWF have the snowiest solutions currently, with tracks moving
close to the eastern border and swinging just to the north in
New Brunswick, wrapping around decent amounts of moisture that
result in the north getting over 6 inches Thursday night. The
GFS and NBM seem to have the low continue more northward, which
would only give a few inches of snowfall to the north. Currently
went with the north getting an a few inches until there is more
confidence in model track trends. There is relatively decent
confidence that additional snow will fall overnight, but
pinpointing the actual totals is the forecast challenge with
this system. There is a dry slot at 850mb overnight, but with
instability, potential for a deformation zone, and plenty of low
level moisture, there could still be decent snowfall. General
trend so far has been favoring a northwest trend for the low,
which is going to continue to increase snowfall accumulations.
Continue to monitor the forecast as CAMs better pick up on this
system.
Key Message 2...
As the broad longwave trough parks over Canada through most of
the week, cold arctic air is funneled into New England region,
resulting in below average daytime highs, and bitter overnight wind
chills. Thursday night will be especially cold as winds ramp
up, with the ambient temperatures in the north potentially
dipping 10-15 below, and at or around 0 degrees in the Downeast
region. Wind chills in the north could reach 20 below overnight,
and 10 below Downeast. Similar cold temperatures on Friday
night, with the north seeing wind chills down to 20 under, and 10
under Downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
*Cold temperatures through the weekend
*Potential for system early-to-mid week
Key Message 1...
Cold temperatures linger throughout the
weekend, as low pressure to the north parks in central Canada,
continuing to push cold air masses towards Maine. Daytime highs
generally staying in the single digits to low teens in the
north, and the teens to 20s Downeast. Overnight lows around 10
below in the north, and generally in the single digits Downeast.
Wind chills in the negative 20 range is possible in the north
overnight Saturday and Sunday.
Key Message 2...
Next chance for precipitation could be early next
week, as a surface low moves towards the state. Very high model
uncertainty in the low track. The GFS has the low moving over
Maine mid-week with potential for decent snowfall. The ECMWF,
however, has the low slides north of the region mid-week.
Overall, the GFS now has a snowier solution. The overall trend
to note here is that there could be a low pressure system move
towards Maine bringing a chance for precipitation, but the track
and intensity are all over the place. Continue to monitor the
forecast for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Through Today:
MVFR at northern Aroostook County terminals with occasional -SN.
Cannot rule out brief periods of IFR visibility. VFR for the
rest of the area. SW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.
Tonight:
VFR, becoming MVFR/IFR late along the coast with -SN developing. Light
winds.
Thursday: IFR/LIFR developing with snow. N winds strengthen
through the day, shifting slightly NW late and increasing to 10
to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Higher gusts are possible in
the evening in some scenarios, especially for eastern areas.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday Night...Very uncertain due to track of storm,
predominantly for northern terminals. Snowfall is expected, but
totals and intensity are subject to change. Currently,
anticipating MVFR/IFR at northern terminals, with periods of
LIFR due to blowing snow reducing visibility. VFR/MVFR at
southern terminals. NW wind 10 kts with gusts to 30 kts in the
north, and 25 kts at southern terminals.
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Generally W winds 5-15 kts.
Gusts up to 25 kts possible during the day Friday and Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will decrease to advisory levels this morning
over the outer waters and waves will decrease below advisory
levels on the intracoastal waters. Waves of 5 to 9 feet and
gusts to around 30 kts will continue over the outer waters
during the evening. Winds and seas briefly fall below advisory
levels over all of the waters late tonight before increasing
towards Gales again on Thursday. There is higher than normal
uncertainty in waves and winds Thursday due to uncertainty in
the track of a coastal low, however confidence was still enough
for a Gale Watch. Light freezing spray is forecast this morning
as conditions become less favorable for freezing spray.
SHORT TERM: Gale Watch out for Thursday night, with increasing
wind and seas. Winds gradually fall below SCA criteria during
the day on Friday. Moderate freezing spray over all waters
Thursday night. Snow early Thursday night. Winds from NW
Thursday night, shifting west by Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening
for MEZ016-017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MWS
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...MWS/ASB
Marine...MWS/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
