NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
243
FXUS61 KCAR 151125
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
625 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lingered snow about an hour longer over coastal Washington
County.
Updated Aviation Section of AFD.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High confidence in quiet weather with no significant impacts today
through Monday.
2) Light snow is possible across the north Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. This may result in some minor travel difficulties over
the north.
3) There is a small chance for a bit of snow over southern
areas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Any snow could cause
minor travel problems.
4) A chance for some snow late Friday into Saturday. This may
result in travel difficulties early next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High confidence in quiet weather with no significant impacts today
through Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The closed low which brought some light snow to the north and snow
showers elsewhere last night, exits to the east this morning into Nova
Scotia followed by northern stream shortwave ridging building in
through tonight. Other than a few lingering snow showers very early
this morning over Downeast Maine with the exiting closed low, it should
be dry due to 1) subsidence under the northern stream ridging and 2) no
shortwaves progged to be advected over the area in the flow aloft.
The ridging exits to the east on Monday as a northern stream
shortwave trough passes. With the bulk of the energy associated
with this system focused off the mid-Atlantic coast, there
should not be sufficient forcing for any precipitation.
Highs today should be near normal, lows tonight from near normal to
around 5 degrees below normal, with the largest departures over
Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region. Highs on Monday should be a few
degrees above normal.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Some light snow is possible across the north Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. This may result in some minor travel
difficulties over the north.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure tracking into southern Hudson Bay will pull a weak
occluded front into our region Monday night. Moisture ahead of
this front combined with some lift from frontal convergence and
some divergence aloft may support a bit of light snow from the
Highlands on north. Any snow amounts will likely be light with
snow tapering off to snow showers Tuesday afternoon. Some minor
travel difficulties are possible from this snow on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
There is a small chance for a bit of snow over southern
areas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Any snow could cause
minor travel problems.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes on Wednesday
and slide south of the region Wednesday night. Most of the
forecast guidance suggests blocking to the north will cause this
low to weaken and slide to our south with little or no impact
on our area. However, there is a small chance that some moisture
from this low lifts in to our region Wednesday night bringing a
low chance for snow over southern areas Wednesday night. Any
snow could impact the morning commute on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A chance for some snow late Friday into Saturday. This may
result in travel difficulties early next weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A new low approaching from the west late in the week may bring
some snow Friday night into Saturday. There are some indications
that blocking to the north will again suppress this low and its
moisture to our south. However, latest model guidance indicates
there is a slightly better chance of getting snow from this
system than from the mid-week system. Any snow could impact
travel Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Becoming VFR throughout by mid morning as snow showers exit to
the east. It should then remain VFR through the remainder of the
TAF period, with one possible exception. There is a very low
chance for MVFR ceilings to develop at northern terminals late
tonight. At this time, the confidence in this occurring is too
low to reflect in the TAFs. Winds become NW at around 10KT by
mid morning. KHUL/KBHB could see some gusts to 15-20KT from
late this morning through mid-late afternoon. Cannot rule out
some gusts at other terminals, just confidence is not high
enough to place in the TAFS at this time. Winds become light
and variable throughout early this evening.
Monday: High confidence in VFR.
Monday night: VFR dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR in snow
over the north. VFR dropping to MVFR across the south. SE wind
around 5 kt.
Tuesday: IFR all sites, improving to MVFR north, and improving
to MVFR then VFR across the south. S wind around 5 kt.
Tuesday night: MVFR to VFR north and VFR south. SW wind
becoming W 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt over the north late.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.
Wednesday night: VFR, with a slight chance of dropping to MVFR
south. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop on all waters this morning. Wind gusts
should first abate over the intra-coastal waters early this
afternoon and over the coastal ocean waters late this
afternoon. Sub-SCA conditons should then persist through
Monday.
There also could be some light freezing spray this morning on
all waters.
NE winds may reach SCA in gusts late Wednesday night into Thursday.
NE winds may again reach SCA Friday night into Saturday with a
strong SCA in north winds possible Saturday night. Seas should
remain below 5 ft this week but may reach 5 ft over the offshore
waters Saturday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
051.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/PM
AVIATION...MB/PM
MARINE...MB/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
