NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
194
FXUS61 KCAR 060703
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
203 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits to the east today. High pressure builds in
from the west tonight and slides south of the area on Friday. A
warm front lifts through Maine Friday night and Saturday
morning, followed by a cold front Saturday afternoon. High
pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday night. A complex
storm system approaches from the southwest Sunday and Sunday
night, the area on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The small, fast moving low which brought some light rain, and wet
snow over higher elevations, will quickly move east across Nova
Scotia this morning. The low has a very tight gradient right behind
it which will result in a north wind rapidly increasing early this
morning, especially along the coast, as the low moves east.
Otherwise, any lingering rain will end Downeast followed by gradual
clearing. The north will remain mostly cloudy through midday and
become partly sunny this afternoon with gusty northwesterly winds.
Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy under the glow of the full
moon. High pressure will settle well south of the area with a
gradient to the north maintaining a westerly breeze overnight. Lows
will range from the low 20s north to the upper 20s Downeast.
High pressure to our south will slide east on Friday as a new low
pressure system tracks from Ontario into Western Quebec. This new
low will lift a warm front into the area Friday possibly spreading
some light rain south and light snow over the north late in the day.
Forecast models agree that northern areas will be cold enough for
snow late in the day, but differ on the arrival time of
precipitation with the GFS spreading snow and rain into the region
by late in the day, but the NAM holding precipitation off until
Friday evening. Will carry just chances for snow north and rain
south late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the area Friday
night ahead of the axis of the main northern stream trough which
is located over western Quebec by Saturday morning. This
northern stream trough axis then lifts to the northeast Saturday
morning, with southwest flow setting up aloft Saturday
afternoon.
The result will be overrunning precipitation blossoming over the
area Friday evening. It should start as snow over the North
Woods, Saint John Valley, and Central Aroostook, rain across
Downeast Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot region and a rain/snow
mix in between. With rising temperatures through the night, the
precipitation changes to all rain throughout after midnight. Any
accumulations will be light, less than an inch, and limited to
the North. The rain then tapers off to showers from NW to SE on
Saturday. Total liquid equivalent should be light, around a few
tenths of an inch, with lower amounts across the North Woods and
highest amounts near the coast. Wind gusts Friday night of
30-40mph are probable across Downeast Maine with the passage of
a 40-50 kt low level jet just offshore. Winds then fall off
fairly rapidly to the North with gusts peaking out at around 20
mph. Winds then diminish fairly rapidly Saturday morning as the
low level jet exits to the east.
Lows Friday night should be around 5 degrees above normal. Highs
on Saturday should be around 5-10 degrees above normal.
Southwest flow aloft Saturday evening gives way to some weak
northern stream ridging late Saturday night. Other than
possibly some lingering showers early in the evening, it should
be dry Saturday night. Moisture trapped under a developing low
level inversion though should keep some clouds around,
especially across the North. Lows Saturday night should be near
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northern stream ridging exits to the east Sunday morning,
followed by a northern stream shortwave passing by Sunday
afternoon. This coupled with low level warm advection will allow
for light stratiform to develop in the afternoon, with rain
across Downeast Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot Region and a
rain/snow mix elsewhere.
The models then agree on the general idea of a developing closed
low building into the Great Lakes region Sunday night, then
slowly moving to the east then northeast as it cuts off through
Tuesday. They differ though on how far south of the Great Lakes
the initial close low gets Sunday before heading east than
northeast, and also differ on how far to the northeast the low
ends up - though there is a general consensus it ends up to the
N/NE of Maine by Tuesday evening. These differences then lead to
different handling of the associated surface low(s). Some
models keep one primary low that tracks over Southern Quebec,
but others develop a secondary low that tracks to near the Maine
coast by Monday evening, before tracking NE across either E
Maine or New Brunswick Monday night (note some solutions are a
little faster or slower than this). They all agree the low
tracks into the Maritimes on Tuesday. The result should be a
rain snow mix changing to all rain across the North (except for
maybe far western portions of the North Woods - where the mix
could persist) Sunday night/Monday morning. Cold air begins to
work back in late Monday, with precipitation changing to
snow/snow showers (after midnight) from NW to SE Monday night.
There should be sufficient low level instability and dynamic
forcing on Tuesday with the passage of the upper low - that
isolated to scattered snow showers should persist across the
North through the day, but should mix with/change to rain
showers across Downeast Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot region -
with the best chance for changing to all rain near the coast.
At this time, there is too much uncertainty to say how much
impact there will be from wintry precipitation. What is a bit
more certain is the potential for strong gusty winds, especially
on the back side of the low on Tuesday as it tracks into the
Maritimes.
A series of weak shortwaves then cross the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with the potential of some more isolated to
scattered snow showers Tuesday night, changing to mainly rain
showers (except for a mix North Woods) during the day on
Wednesday.
Temperatures should be slightly below normal Sunday, then above
normal Sunday night-Monday, then below normal Monday night-
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
IFR conditions will become MVFR this morning then VFR this
afternoon. Gusty NW winds 15 to 20 kt gusting to 35 kt. VFR
conditions tonight. W wind 10 kt gusting to 15 to 20 kt. VFR
conditions Friday, possibly lowering to MVFR very late. S wind 5
to 10 kt gusting to 15 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night...IFR or lower probable. LLWS possible. SSE-SE
winds G25-35KT possible coastal terminals.
Saturday...Becoming VFR. WSW-WNW winds G15-20KT possible.
Saturday night...VFR. NW-N winds G15KT possible.
Sunday...VFR to start, then MVFR or lower possible in the
afternoon.
Sunday night-Monday...IFR or lower likely. LLWS possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A gale will remain up today into this evening for strong gusty NW
winds. Seas up to 8 ft today subsiding to 5 ft tonight. Winds will
drop to SCA late tonight then be below SCA Friday. Seas around 3 ft
on Friday.
SHORT TERM: Gales are possible on the coastal ocean waters
Friday night, with SCA conditions on the intra coastal waters.
SCA conditions throughout Saturday morning, sub-siding to sub-
SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters in the afternoon. SCA
level seas could linger on the coastal ocean waters into
Saturday night. All waters should see sub-SCA conditions Sunday.
SCA conditions are possible on all waters Sunday night and
Monday. Gales can not be ruled out by late Monday - but at this
time the confidence in this is too low to reflect in the
forecast or HWO.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MB
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...MB/PM
Marine...MB/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
