NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
337
FXUS61 KCAR 021845
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
145 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet snow is likely Tuesday night for Bangor and Downeast
Maine, mainly between 8pm and 6am. Minor travel impacts are
possible.
2) Light snow possible Thursday and Friday.
3) Warm, above freezing temperatures expected for the weekend,
with potential for mixed precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wet snow is likely Tuesday night for Bangor and Downeast
Maine, mainly between 8pm and 6am. Minor travel impacts are
possible.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Weak low pressure will develop Tuesday evening over the western
Gulf of Maine and track eastward over Nova Scotia by early
Tuesday morning as a northern stream shortwave trough partially
phases with the subtropical jet. There is general agreement for
about a quarter to third of an inch of QPF across Downeast Maine
falling all as snow, except along the coast where some mixing
with rain is possible. This will be a heavy, wet snow with snow
ratios between 7 and 11 to 1 anticipated, producing roughly 2 to
4 inches of snow. There is some uncertainty with how quickly the
low deepens, and there is potential for a stronger low that
could bring slightly more QPF northward. HREF and NBM
probabilities currently indicate about a 20 to 30 percent chance
of at least 4 inches of snow Downeast, so there remains a chance
that advisories may be needed if higher QPF scenarios occur. In
any case, snow covered and slushy roads are likely for the
Wednesday morning commute, especially early on before
temperatures warm well above freezing during the day Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Light snow possible Thursday and Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Two potential shots at snow Thursday into Friday. The first
comes mainly Thursday morning and over Northern Maine. Most
models/ensembles have a slow-moving cold front sliding through
the north in the pre-dawn hours with sharply cooler air behind
it. Then there would be the potential for light overrunning snow
on the cold side of the front during the day Thursday. If this
occurs, we are looking at an inch or two of snow at most. Not
confident that it will occur and went with chance of snow for
now, but did go higher for PoPs than the NBM.
Briefly after this, for late Thursday night into Friday morning,
a system approaches from the west, perhaps bringing a shot of
snow. The best shot of snow is over southern portions of the
area, but like the early Thursday system, not quite confident
enough to go with likely PoPs. There is a lot of uncertainty
with how far north precipitation gets with this system. Some
have accumulating snow up to northern Maine, while others keep
it south of our area. There is about a 30-40 percent chance of
an inch or more of snow Downeast and Bangor region, but if it
does snow, totals would very likely stay below 5 inches. Snow
appears to be the most likely precipitation chance, unless the
storm takes an extreme northerly track, in which case we can`t
rule out some rain Downeast.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warm, above freezing temperatures expected for the weekend,
with potential for mixed precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Near certainty that temperatures will top freezing this weekend
areawide, and high likelihood (at least 70 percent chance) that
they will at least reach 40 even in the north. There could be
some light mixed precipitation Friday night and early Saturday
as a warm front comes through. While we can`t rule out some
freezing rain with the transition to warm temperatures, this
does not look like a good setup for anything more than brief
icing. It`s also possible light snow could transition to rain,
or there may not be any precipitation at all with the warm front
early Saturday, as there is still a lot of uncertainty.
Temperatures look quite mild from Saturday afternoon through at
least Sunday areawide. Some rain is also possible, but not
expecting anything significant. That said, the mild temperatures
through the weekend will lead to significant snowpack
compaction, with some places mainly in southern portions of the
area possibly losing all or nearly all of their snowpack. The
potential for river, lake/pond ice decay/rot is also there,
especially Downeast. We don`t expect river ice to flush out
Downeast though, and in the north, the river ice should hold
completely through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through Tuesday. Light SW winds this evening, increasing to
10 to 15 kts with gusts between 20 and 30 kts during the day
Tuesday. LLWS likely late tonight with an inversion around 2kft
AGL, before mixing begins and surface winds increase by midday
Tuesday.
Tuesday Night: VFR at northern Aroostook terminals, IFR/LIFR at
BGR and Downeast terminals with a period of SN developing. MVFR
with -SN possible at HUL and MLT. S winds 5 to 10 kts.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-15kt.
Wednesday night...VFR south. VFR north, low chance of SCT-BKN
MVFR cigs. Variable wind less than 10kt.
Thursday...VFR Downeast terminals, and probably MVFR northern
terminals. N-NE winds 5-15kt.
Thursday Night and Friday...Possible MVFR/IFR cigs with -SN,
but low confidence. NE winds 5-10kt.
Friday Night and Saturday...Possible mixed precipitation with
mainly MVFR/IFR. S wind 5-15kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas initially below advisory levels tonight will
increase Tuesday morning, with SW wind gusts to 25 to 30 kts and
seas increasing to 4 to 7 feet. Winds and seas decrease below
advisory levels again Tuesday night. Light freezing spray is
expected through tonight, ending by Tuesday morning as
temperatures warm.
Likely E/NE small craft winds, with possible gales, Thursday
night to Friday evening. Seas 4-7 ft. Winds then becoming S/SW
for the weekend generally at small craft levels.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
