NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
785
FXUS61 KCAR 241902
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased snow amounts slightly based on dynamic setup for the
low pressure system Wednesday afternoon
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring rain/snow mix and gusty winds to
mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
This may create some travels difficulties during the Saturday
evening commute.
2) Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in
frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the
first week of March.
3) Accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night may impact
travel conditions for the evening commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring rain/snow mix and gusty
winds to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the
Saturday evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A large low pressure system in northern Canada will track ENE on
Saturday, pulling a cold front across the region. Well above
normal temps ahead of the front and the arctic air behind the
front will create a rain/snow mix for precip. The mid level trof
should keep precip mainly to the north through the afternoon.
This is expected to be a quick moving system, so precip should
end after midnight Saturday night. The snow ratios should be low
making for wet, heavy snow. Thus the breezy winds should not
create blowing snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will
result in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to
begin the first week of March.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Once the cold front exits the region, very cold arctic air will
move in. By Sunday night, temps should reach into the teens
below zero in the north and single digits above zero in the
south. Continued breezy winds from the exiting low should drop
wind chills to dangerous levels. This cold airmass is expected
to stick around through the beginning of the week.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night may impact
travel conditions for the evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system will cross the region on Wednesday,
bringing another round of light snow across the CWA. Modest mid
level lapse rates of around 7 C/km combined with small amounts
of CAPE aloft will support a convective nature to this snow,
helping squeeze out a few inches of snow across the Downeast
region, with lesser amounts to the north. This snow will mostly
fall during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday,
and could reduce visibility during the evening commute.
Additionally, based on the coastal track of this low pressure
system, enough warm air may wrap around the low center to create
a mix of snow and rain near the coast, as high temperatures
surge above freezing along the Coastal Downeast region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight...VFR conditions continue across all terminals. Winds
will quickly decrease overnight, becoming light and variable.
Wednesday...VFR conditions continue through the day, beginning
to trend towards MVFR late at Downeast terminals. SE winds 5 to
10 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts possible.
Wednesday night...Cigs trending towards MVFR/IFR in snow. Winds
shifting SE at around 5 kts.
Thursday...MVFR north except briefly IFR in any snow showers. VFR
south. W wind around 10 kt with high gusts.
Thursday night...VFR. WNW winds around 5 kts.
Friday...Friday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.
Friday night...VFR. S winds 5-10 kts
Saturday...VFR south, MVFR/IFR north in snow showers. VFR
dropping to MVFR south. S wind 10 to 15 kt. LLWS.
Sunday...MVFR in light snow. WNW winds 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated seas will continue through the afternoon across all
marine zones, with the intracoastals decreasing by this evening
while coastal marine zones maintain seas 4 to 6 ft through
around midnight tonight. Light freezing spray is likely
overnight tonight. Gusts increase once more during the day on
Wednesday with a snow and rain storm crossing the waters.
A SCA may be needed Wednesday evening for wind gusts up to 25
kt. A SCA may be needed again Saturday into Saturday night for
gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may need to continue Sunday and Monday
with an increased chance for freezing spray as Arctic air moves
in.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/ARL
AVIATION...AES/ARL
MARINE...AES/ARL