NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
919
FXUS61 KCAR 070738
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
238 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits Maine early this morning, followed by high
pressure building in through Sunday. An area of low pressure tracks
from northeastern New York Sunday evening to near southeastern Nova
Scotia early Monday morning. High pressure builds in behind this
system through Monday night, then slides offshore on Tuesday.
Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A
stronger low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday
morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning,
followed by a cold front crossing the area on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
-Cold weather continues through Monday
-Light snow event tonight expected to bring a few inches to
areas south of the Katahdin region
An arctic cold front passing through the state may bring a few
snow showers to northern Maine through about 5 AM. By daybreak,
the front should have exited the area with blustery NW flow in
its wake acting to bring in more cold air from Canada. Expecting
temperatures to be around 5 degrees below normal through the
day. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies early with increasing
clouds later in advance of an approaching weak low pressure
system.
On Monday night, a weak low pressure system will approach from
western New England and undergo some modest intensification over
the Gulf of Maine. Accumulating snow is expected generally south
of the Katahdin region with a few inches possible in the Bangor
and Downeast regions. There is still some uncertainty regarding
how strong the low will be which will impact snowfall amounts
and there is also the question of how far north the snow will
fall. Some guidance shows a weaker, more southerly solution
while other guidance depicts a stronger, more northerly
solution. Regardless, greatest chance for snowfall along the
coast and interior Downeast/Bangor region. Expect snowfall to be
light and fluffy as a result of cold temperatures in the teens
and single digits farther north. Snow should mostly end by the
morning commute but some slippery conditions are still possible.
High pressure builds in during the day leading to clearing skies
and some blustery conditions. The gusty winds could blow some
snow around and is expected to result in wind chills near zero
over southern areas and in the negative single digits farther
north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Light snow possible Tuesday night
Mainly clear and cold conditions are expected Monday night as high
pressure builds across. Overnight lows will fall to around zero
across much of the region, with lows in the single digits below
zero in the normally colder valleys.
The high moves off the coast during Tuesday with a southwest return
flow developing. This will result in afternoon highs moderating
somewhat into the mid teens to around 20 degrees for the north,
and mid 20s to around 30 degrees for the Bangor region and
Downeast.
A short wave embedded in the westerly flow aloft will approach
from the west Tuesday evening and then crosses the region during
Tuesday night. This feature will likely bring a quick shot of
light snow to the region Tuesday night, especially for central
and Downeast portions of the forecast area. At this time, looks
like accumulations with this feature will be an inch or less.
Lows Tuesday night will not be quite as cold as previous nights
due to increasing clouds and a southerly wind. Nevertheless,
lows will still range in the single digits north and the mid to
upper teens for the Bangor region and Downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message
-Light snow Wednesday night north with a snow/rain mix for the
Bangor region
After a brief break in the weather Wednesday morning, a fast moving
clipper type system will approach from the west. Precipitation
with this system will develop from west to east Wednesday
afternoon. Still model differences with the track of this
feature. Some models track the low across the crown of Maine or
just to our north Wednesday night, while some track it closer to
the coast. The track could have implications on precipitation
types. But at this point, the blended model approach favors snow
across the north and a snow/rain mix, possibly changing to
plain rain for the Bangor region and Downeast. Precipitation
will taper off early Thursday followed by partly sunny/mostly
cloudy conditions by afternoon. Friday looks mainly dry. There
are some indications that low pressure may try to take shape in
the vicinity of the mid atlantic region by next weekend. Stayed
with the model blended forecast parameters for Saturday which
yielded a chance of snow. Afternoon high temperatures through
the period are expected to continue to average below normal for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today. A few snow showers through 9z possible
which could result in brief MVFR. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR
tonight after 0z for southern terminals with light snow and
after 4z for northern terminals with snow showers. Some brief
IFR possible at southern terminals due to reductions in
visibility from the snow. Conditions improve to VFR Monday
morning. Winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts early this
morning decrease to light and variable tonight. Winds 10 to 15
kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts Monday.
SHORT TERM:
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night...MVFR or lower in light snow.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR early, then MFVR or lower
by afternoon into the night in snow north and snow/rain mix.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR. Gusty NW wind possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds may briefly approach small craft advisory
criteria early this morning with a few gusts to 25 kts then
subside to below criteria through midnight tonight. Winds
increase to near gale criteria on the outer waters Monday
morning and thus have issues a gale watch. Winds above small
craft criteria on the inner waters Monday and thus have issued a
small craft advisory. Seas will also increase to small craft
criteria Monday over the outer waters.
SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Monday night through
Tuesday. Could see a return to gale force conditions Tuesday
night, otherwise SCA conditions are likley mid to late week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch in effect from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for Anz050-051.
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4AM to 11 PM EST on Monday
for Anz052.
&&
$$
Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
