NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
833
FXUS61 KCAR 230109
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
809 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated aviation discussion.
-New uncertainty for snow squalls Friday.
-Extreme Cold Watch upgraded to Extreme Cold Warning. Extreme
Cold Warning expanded to southern Piscataquis, central
Penobscot, and Northern Washington counties.
-Cold Weather Advisory issued for Downeast Maine and the Bangor
region.
-Heavy Freezing Spray Warning issued for the waters.
-Increasing confidence in a winter storm Sunday night through
Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A couple rounds of heavy snow showers or squalls may cause
brief whiteouts and result in slick travel Friday.
- Frigid arctic air with extremely dangerous wind chills this
weekend.
- Increasing chance of a winter storm Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple rounds of heavy snow showers or
squalls may cause brief whiteouts and result in slick travel
Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Friday the threat of snow squalls is a little more uncertain
today compared to last forecast package. An arctic cold front
will be approaching from the northwest in Quebec in the
afternoon. Timing remains relatively on track but seeing some
hi-res model timing differences between RRFS/HRRR/NAM3km and the
global models. Expecting mostly sunny morning and midday that
will allow for some surface CAPE reaching 30-60j/kg. Very
favorable 925-850mb lapse rates at 9-9.5C/km with 850-700mb very
favorable at 8-8.5C/km. In the afternoon solid agreement of
negative Theta E profiles showing significantly steep low level
lapse rates. Lastly, seeing modeled total surface wind
divergence mainly positive with some pockets of negative in the
Central Highlands to Downeast coast. Negative would indicate
surface wind convergence which is favorable for snow squalls.
When you put all these parameters together we are seeing
elevated BTV snow squall parameter values from NAM/GFS/ECMWF of
1-3 in the southern half of the CWA but some differences with
GFS being more widespread. Lastly, modeled soundings show
uncertainty of how strong the winds will be aloft in the mixed
layer. For now will continue the threat of heavy snow showers
and squalls into Friday. However, having to significantly
overhaul the POPs since NBM struggles with winter convection in
Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid arctic air with extremely dangerous wind
chills this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The pressure gradient between the exiting low to our northeast
and the high building in from the west persists through Saturday
resulting in winds remaining elevated throughout the day. This
will contribute to the continuation of very cold wind chills
with the worst conditions right around daybreak where the wind
will make the air feel like -30 to -40 degrees in the north
and -20 to -30 over southern and coastal areas. Wind chills
will improve slightly throughout the day as temperatures warm
but will stay well below 0.
Saturday night will feature the coldest temperatures of the
weekend but wind chills should be slightly better as winds will
be lighter. Some uncertainty still remains as to whether or not
the high will move in quick enough for the winds to become
nearly calm and to allow some decoupling, sending low
temperatures plummeting. Model soundings do not show a strong
decoupling signal but clear skies mean that any localized areas
that are more sheltered from the wind may see temperatures go
below guidance.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing chance of a winter storm Sunday
night into Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Models are continuing to converge on a winter storm that will
redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast before moving northeastward.
Many ensemble members show the storm making it into the Gulf of
Maine where it will strengthen and bring snowfall to much of
the area. Some other ensemble solutions want to track the storm
more easterly off the southern New England coast where our area
would receive only a few inches at most. The track of the storm
will depend heavily on the evolution of the high over our north
during the day on Sunday. A weaker high will allow the storm to
move up along our coast while a stronger high will keep it
further south. Regardless, the greatest totals from this storm
are likely to be found in the Downeast and Bangor regions.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Variable conditions with any snow showers through early morning.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR tonight. Variable conditions with snow
showers, possible snow squalls, Friday. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR
Friday. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots tonight. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 20 to 25 knots, becoming west/northwest Friday.
Friday Night...VFR. Wind Shift in the evening. NW winds 10-20kt
with gusts up to 30kt possible.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR. W/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 25 to 30 kts Saturday, diminishing to 5 to 10 kts Saturday
night and around 5 kts Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday...Becoming MVFR and likely IFR at
southern terminals with light snow. VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR
Monday at northern terminals with light snow. N/NE winds
increasing to 5 to 10 kts.
Monday night through Tuesday...IFR/MVFR conditions improve to
VFR/MVFR. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts Monday night becoming 10 to 15
kts Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect through 1PM Saturday for the Coastal
Waters out 25nm. Westerly winds through Friday evening shifting
Northwest Friday evening lasting into Saturday. 25-35kt with
gusts up to 45kt and seas 6-9ft. A Gale Warning is in effect
from 6PM Friday till 7AM Saturday for the Intra-Coastal Waters.
Here we expect NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt and seas
3-5ft. For all the waters a Heavy Freezing Spray Advisory in
effect from 10PM Friday till 10AM Sunday. Heavy freezing spray
at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly
accumulate on vessels. Rapid ice accretion on decks and
superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.
Gales decrease to SCA conditions Saturday night with below SCA
conditions for both winds and seas Sunday morning. Winds
increase to gales Sunday night and may not decrease to SCA
criteria until Tuesday but even then there will be borderline
gale wind gusts. Seas 6 to 10 ft early Saturday will decrease to
1 to 2 ft Sunday before increasing to 6 to 10 ft Monday night.
Heavy freezing spray Saturday morning with moderate freezing
spray through Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST
Sunday for ANZ050>052.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SM/JS
AVIATION...CN/SM/JS
MARINE...SM/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
