NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
479
FXUS61 KCAR 260715
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
215 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest today and be to our
north over the weekend. Low pressure will approach on Monday and
exit to the northeast Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message...
1) Gusty winds and blowing and drifting snow this morning
2) Anomalously cold temperatures through Saturday
Key Message 1...
Surface low deepening over the Canadian Maritimes will keep a tight
pressure gradient over the CWA as 1035mb sfc high builds twd the
area from Quebec. 30-35 kt LLJ remains over eastern areas through
15z this morning before decreasing as the day wears on. Expect wind
gusts at the surface to peak between 25-30 mph this morning before
diminishing. This will continue to result in blowing and drifting snow
downwind of open areas, especially over the north and east. Use caution
when traveling this morning and be prepared for reduced visibilities
along with snowdrifts in the roads that may cause you to lose control
of your vehicle.
Key Message 2...
High pressure and northerly flow will keep cold Canadian air over the
area during the near term. High temps will only climb into the single
digits over the north and into the teens for srn zones. Strong high
pressure will keep sfc low south of the region tonight with gradient
of precipitation confined to NH and srn New England with only mid cld
deck possibly getting into wrn areas late tonight. Skies remain moclr
to pcldy over the north and with light winds and/or near calm winds,
along with a fresh snowpack, temps will fall below zero for areas
north and west of the I95 corridor.
Temps will recover slightly on Saturday under sunny skies. Highs will
be 3-5 degrees warmer than Friday but still average around 10-15
degrees below seasonal norms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main point:
* Cold temperatures continue Saturday night
Discussion:
Northwest winds behind a departing trough will continue to
advect cold air into our forecast area Saturday night, leading
to temperatures falling into the single digits throughout the
forecast area. Skies will be clear under high pressure, and
should the winds taper off overnight with the development of a
nocturnal inversion, efficient radiational cooling could allow
for temperatures to quickly drop even further, potentially
falling to near 10 below zero in the north, and around zero
Downeast. If the boundary layer remains well mixed, however, lows
are more likely to remain above zero, aside from some typically
colder spots in the north which could dip just below zero.
The ridge of high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sunday
into Sunday night as the next strong low pressure system
approaches from the west into the beginning of the next work
week.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main points:
* Storm Monday-Monday night to bring snow across the north,
rain Downeast
* Potential wintry mix along the rain/snow line late Monday
into Monday night
* Gusty winds possible on Tuesday
Discussion:
An occluding low pressure system will make its way through New
England through early next week. The exact evolution of this
storm continues to lack resolution, as there are a few key
details that remain uncertain. The track of the parent surface
low will likely move out of Quebec and cross the northern
portion of the CWA, or just to the north of the area. A triple
point low will develop along the occluded front as it lifts
through northern New England, though the exact track of this
secondary low remains uncertain. Recent runs of the GFS and
ECMWF bring this triple point low through the center of our
forecast area, while the CMC keeps this secondary low closer to
the coast. The further north the triple point tracks, the
further the warm sector of that low will be able to intrude into
our region, and the further north the warm sector shifts, the
more rain will be found in our forecast area. Based on current
runs of global models, as well as referencing both the NBM 4.3
and NBM 5.0 trends, this forecast leans towards the solution
with the triple point moving through the middle of the forecast
area. This leads to warm air creating a change to rain Downeast
through the day on Monday, while the north remains all snow.
With a lifting warm front late Monday into Monday night, the
atmospheric profile will begin to develop a warm nose. The
question remains if this warm nose will be strong enough while
the surface remains cold enough for freezing rain to exist along
the rain/snow line. At this time frame, there is no clear signal
for freezing rain, though the synoptic setup is conducive for at
least brief periods of freezing rain before a switch to warm
rain. The location of the rain/snow line is also difficult to
pinpoint at this time range. For these reasons, the forecast
remains a rain/snow mix along the warm front, though a wintry
mix cannot be ruled out.
The low pressure system will move out of the area on Tuesday,
and a tightened pressure gradient aloft between the departing
low and an incoming ridge of high pressure will lead to gusty
surface winds, potentially reaching 25 to 30 mph, especially
over higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 36 hours under high pressure. DRSN possible
thru 13z this morning before nw wind gusts begin to diminish.
Winds diminish to around 5 kt with sunset, picking back up
Saturday morning between 5-10 kts. LLWS expected all terminals
this morning through 13z.
SHORT TERM:
Sat night - Sun: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10
kts.
Sun night: Conditions gradually falling to MVFR late. Winds light
and variable.
Mon: Conditions deteriorating into the afternoon, becoming IFR/LIFR
in snow in the north and in rain at Downeast terminals. Winds
ESE 5 to 10 kts.
Mon night: IFR/LIFR early, improving towards MVFR late from
south to north. Winds shifting W at 5 to 10 kts.
Tues: VFR/MVFR. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale force winds continue through mid-late morning
with small craft headlines likely continuing into this
afternoon. North winds will be marginal thru the day on Saturday
but remain aob 25 kts with seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet.
SHORT TERM: Winds gusting over 25 kts on the coastal waters
Saturday night through Sunday morning, leading to small craft
advisory conditions. Seas will remain mild at 1 to 3 ft through
this time. A low pressure system will bring rain across the
waters Monday into Monday night. Strong gale strength winds are
likely behind the next low pressure system, with these winds
picking up Monday night into Tuesday. Seas will lift to 7 to 12
ft through the middle of the week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...AES/21
Marine...AES/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
