NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
122
FXUS61 KCAR 131834
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
234 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered snow amounts slightly for the storm late tonight and
Saturday.
Confidence continues to increase in a moderate to potentially
high impact event Late Sunday night into Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A moderate snowfall of 3 to 6 inches for all of the area will
occur late tonight through Saturday, impacting travel,
especially Saturday morning.
2) Multiple hazards are possible due to a complex storm system
impacting the area from Sunday night into Tuesday. These
include winter driving hazards Monday morning across the North.
The following impacts are possible Monday into Tuesday: possible
isolated to maybe scattered power outages, possible flooding
area wide Monday, and possible high surf/erosion/coastal
flooding.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A moderate snowfall of 3 to 6 inches for all of the area will
occur late tonight through Saturday, impacting travel,
especially Saturday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An upper level shortwave trough will move east through the
area, along with a surface low tracking east through Downeast
Maine. This will bring a fairly brief period of snow, 3 to 6
inches worth, mainly late tonight to mid-morning Saturday
Downeast, and persisting into roughly early/mid Saturday
afternoon in the north. This will be a particularly quick-
hitting storm Downeast, with only six hours or so of snow just
ahead of the surface low pressure tracking through the area.
That said, snow rates look more impressive Downeast than the
rest of the area and could near 1 inch per hour around dawn
Saturday. From mid-morning onward, warmer air and lighter
precipitation should work into Downeast, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s. The best shot of snowfall reaching the
higher end of the 3 to 6 inch range is over central portions of
the area just north of the probable low pressure track, likely
from Houlton to Millinocket to Dover- Foxcroft. That said,
amounts over the whole area look relatively uniform and
confidence is fairly high in totals. It should stay all snow
over central and northern portions of the area, though
temperatures rise to around 30 by about midday, so even though
snow will still be falling, roads may not be too bad. Snow will
be a bit on the wetter/denser side Downeast, and about an
average density in the north or perhaps slightly on the wetter
side. Little blowing snow is expected, though can`t rule out
some very localized light blowing in agricultural areas of the
north. No freezing rain or sleet expected. The storm generally
kicks out Saturday night, though some snow showers could persist
in the north with perhaps a little more light accumulation.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple hazards are possible from Sunday night
into Tuesday. These include winter driving hazards Monday
morning across the North. The following impacts are possible
Monday into Tuesday:
Possible flooding for all but the North Woods, possible
isolated to maybe scattered power outages - best chance
Downeast, and possible high surf/beach erosion/ coastal
flooding. Heavy snow showers are also possible Tuesday
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Deep layered ridging over the area Sunday night gives way to an
approaching cutoff low over the Great Lakes Monday, this system
tracks to east of Hudson Bay on Tuesday as it weakens. At the
surface low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Sunday night
with its surface warm front approaching, the low progresses into
southwest Quebec Monday, with its warm front lifting to the
north. The low lifts into Central Quebec Monday night, then
into Labrador on Tuesday, bringing its associated potent cold
front across the region.
Precipitation starts off as snow mainly after midnight Sunday
night, then changes to a wintry mix to rain from south to north
into Monday morning. Before it does so, there is the chance this
wintry mix could impact the Monday morning commute across the
North.
A combination of diffluent flow aloft from late Sunday night
into Tuesday morning, coupled with the slow passage of a 65-80kt
950-850 mb low level jet during most of this time frame, will
produce a prolonged period of heavy rainfall across the region.
Currently there is at least a 50 percent chance of over 1" of
rainfall from Monday morning through Tuesday night along and
south of a Mars Hill to Moosehead Lake line and a 20-40% chance
of over 2" of rain across most of Downeast Maine. This coupled
with snow melt, and possible ice jams over Downeast Maine and
possibly the Bangor/Penobscot Region, could bring the risk of
the flooding of small streams and creeks and known poor drainage
areas for all but the North Woods, with the highest threat over
Downeast Maine. In alignment with this, the Weather Prediction
Center has placed areas south of a line from Van Buren to
Clayton Lake in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with at
least a 5 to less than 15 percent chance of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance.
The prolong duration 950-850 mb jet could bring strong wind
gusts to most of the region, with most of the area having at
least a 40% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph, the possibility
for damaging wind gusts has gone down over the past 24 hours
with the chance for wind gusts over 55 mph down to 20-30 percent
over the islands on the Downeast Coast. As a result have the
potential for widespread isolated power outages, with a low end
chance for scattered power outages over the coastal Downeast
Maine.
Last but not least, prolonged period of strong S-SE winds of
30-40 mph sustained along the coast could bring high surf and
possible beach erosion from Monday into Tuesday morning, as well
as an increasing chance of minor coastal flooding over
successive high tide cycles from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning.
Finally, there is the potential for strong convection both
immediately ahead of the cold front on Tuesday and behind it
Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening. The former could
locally enhance rainfall and bring the strongest local wind
gusts and the latter could end up being in the form of locally
heavy snow showers depending on how fast low level cold air
moves in behind the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through this evening with diminishing winds. Storm moves in
tonight with snow developing from south to north roughly 7-9z.
Conditions should quickly drop to IFR or low MVFR with the snow.
MVFR/IFR continues through the morning, but with gradual
improvement to MVFR midday through afternoon. Generally VFR with
localized MVFR Saturday night. Winds increase to E/SE around 10
kts late tonight into Saturday. By about midday Saturday,
Downeast winds at BHB/BGR switch to the W, while over Northern
Maine they stay out of the N. NW 5-10 kts areawide Saturday
night.
Sunday-Sunday evening: VFR.
Late Sunday night: IFR/LIFR developing. Snow to a wintry mix
northern terminals, snow to rain southern terminals. SE winds
G15-25KT possible. LLWS likely southern terminals.
Monday-Tuesday morning: IFR/LIFR, possible VLIFR. Locally heavy
rain probable. LLWS likely. SE winds G20-30KT possible, with
gusts 40+KT possible in any stronger convection Tuesday morning.
Tuesday afternoon: Becoming VFR. Chance for locally heavy snow
showers. WSW-W winds G15-30KT possible.
Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20-30KT probable.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds this evening increase to small craft levels from the
south. Late tonight, there could be a brief period of southeast
gales, but opted for a small craft advisory instead for now.
Winds switch to the west on Saturday and remain small craft,
then become northwest Saturday night. Seas 3 to 6 feet building
to 5 to 9 feet Saturday afternoon and only slightly diminishing
Saturday night.
SCA conditions likely on the waters Sunday and again late
Sunday night, with a possible lull Sunday evening. Gales
develop on all waters Monday, with Storm Force winds gusts
probable on the coastal ocean waters and possible on the intra-
coastal waters Monday night, with the Storm Force winds
possible lingering into Tuesday on the coastal ocean waters.
Conditions then subside to Gales over the coastal ocean waters
and SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters by Tuesday night.
Sub-SCA conditions forecast for Wednesday on the intra-coastal
waters, with SCA level seas likely lingering through Wednesday
on the coastal ocean waters.
Seas build from late Sunday night into Tuesday to near 20 ft on
the coastal ocean waters and around 10 ft on the intra- coastal
waters, then gradually subside through Wednesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for
MEZ001>006.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
051.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...TF/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
