NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
174
FXUS61 KCAR 181034
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
534 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Updated aviation section below for 12Z TAFs
* Increased snow totals across Downeast Maine tonight.
* Increased winds Tuesday with increased confidence in tighter
pressure gradient aloft between departing low and incoming
high pressure, with increased confidence in very cold wind
chills Tuesday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow late this afternoon through tonight for the Bangor
region and Downeast Maine will result in hazardous travel
conditions.
2) Very cold wind chills Tuesday through Tuesday night may pose
a risk for frostbite and hypothermia. This threat returns
Thursday night through the weekend.
3) Snow Wednesday night into Thursday may lead to slick travel
conditions, particularly across eastern Aroostook County into
Washington County.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Snow late this afternoon through tonight for the Bangor
region and Downeast Maine will result in hazardous travel
conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will track northeast from the mid atlantic region
today and then pass to the south of Nova Scotia tonight. As it
does so, this system will bring snow, mainly to the Downeast
region tonight. Measurable snow is expected to make it as far
north as the Bangor area tonight, so some travel impacts can be
expected. However, the higher snow totals are expected to be
across Downeast areas.
NBM QPF appeared a bit on the low side, thus blended two thirds
WPC guidance which yielded higher QPF and snowfall totals. This
resulted in a winter weather advisory issuance for most of
Downeast Maine for tonight.
Although the majority of deterministic guidance and ensemble
systems pass the low to the south of Nova Scotia, a slight
westward track in the low could bring even higher snowfall
totals to Downeast Maine. This what could go wrong with the
forecast scenario would result in more significant impacts
and snowfall totals to the Downeast region.
The main impacts from this storm will be the potential for
hazardous travel from snow covered roads, especially between
9 pm and 2 am Monday morning. Winds are not expected to be a
big factor, thus the threat of extensive blowing snow is rather
limited. The snow is expected to taper off by the morning
commute on Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very cold wind chills Tuesday through Tuesday night may pose
a risk for frostbite and hypothermia. This threat returns
Thursday night through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
It will depend on how long it takes the ridge to build in
Tuesday night for how windy it stays through the night. The
slower the shift in the ridge axis, the longer the winds persist
and the colder the wind chills may become by Wednesday morning.
Alternatively, if the ridge builds in more quickly, winds will
diminish more quickly, and wind chills will not be quite so
intense. That said, if the ridge builds in more quickly, with
mostly clear skies Downeast, surface decoupling could occur
earlier in the night and allow for air temperatures to drop into
the double digits below zero if calm winds establish themselves
early enough. The current forecast reflects the ridge moving in
through the night, with winds decreasing after midnight and
surface decoupling over the last couple of hours before sunrise,
which could allow for Downeast temperatures to quickly drop
towards or just below zero just before the sun rises Wednesday
morning.
For late this week into this weekend, a trough axis will again
slide eastward, and with a ridge building to the south, the
pressure gradient over the area will tighten such that winds
will become gusty through the weekend. With sustained winds 10
to 15 mph and an arctic airmass in place, very cold to extreme
cold wind chills may return to the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Snow Wednesday night into Thursday may lead to slick travel
conditions, particularly across eastern Aroostook County into
Washington County.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A complex low pressure system will cross northern New England
through the middle of the week. A triple point low may develop
through central New England, then cross the center of our CWA
Wednesday night. The main occluded low will then approach from
the west and push through our forecast area during the day on
Thursday. This dynamic setup will support widespread snowfall,
and will allow for temperatures to warm into the 20s across the
north, and potentially make a run for the freezing mark
Downeast, where rain could mix with the snow during the day on
Thursday before the cold front clears through and allows
temperatures to plummet once more Thursday night. Should any
rain fall Downeast, these quickly falling temperatures will
cause liquid water to freeze, and this may create icy conditions
overnight Thursday night, particularly on any untreated roads.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR conditions are expected at the Aroostook terminals at times
through about 17z today in lower ceilings and scattered snow
showers, otherwise VFR expected through the morning hours.
VFR conditions are expected at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI this afternoon
through tonight. VFR is expected at KHUL through this evening,
then decreasing to MVFR or lower in light snow aft 05z.
VFR expected at KBGR/KBHB this morning, then expect MVFR
conditions to develop, mainly aft 20z in lowering ceilings and
developing snow. IFR conditions are then expected tonight in
snow, improving to VFR aft 10Z Monday.
S to SW wind less than 10 kts today, becoming N around 10 kt
tonight.
Outlook for Monday...MFVR. Scatterd -shsn. N wind less than 10
kt becoming S in this afternoon.
Monday night: Improving to VFR/MVFR across all terminals. SW
winds 5 to 10 kts. Gusts to 20 kts late.
Tuesday: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR cigs at northern terminals.
SW to W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts.
Tuesday night: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR/IFR at northern
terminals. W winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable late.
Wednesday: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR at northern terminals with
approaching snow. SW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting S late.
Wednesday night: MVFR/IFR all terminals with snow spreading
across the area. S winds 5 to 10 kts.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in snow across all terminals. SW winds 5 to
10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.
Thursday night: MVFR with possible improvement to VFR at
Downeast terminals overnight. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to
20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters
through 7AM Monday, as seas are expected to remain generally 5
to 7 ft through this evening. Then as intensifying low pressure
tracks to the south of Nova Scotia, gusts up to 25 kt are
possible after midnight tonight. Small craft advisory conditions
will likely persist into Monday. Visibilities will be reduced
on the open waters tonight in snow and rain.
Gale conditions are likely Monday night through Tuesday night
with SW winds gusting 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 12 ft. Light
freezing spray is expected beginning Tuesday. Conditions will
gradually improve into the day on Wednesday, with gusts
decreasing to around 25 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft, but a return of
SW gales is possible as winds increase once more with the next
system moving through Wednesday night into Thursday, and gales
could last into the day on Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Monday for MEZ016-017-029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
MARINE...AES/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
