NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 200642
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
142 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight through
Thursday night. It will then slowly move southeast Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM Update... Wind chills across the north slowly falling
tonight with Frenchville already in the lower -20s. Gusts have
fallen off quickly, but sustained winds remain 10-20 mph across
the north, so Wind Chill Advisory remains well in place.

Previous Discussion...
Secondary cold front has mvd into nrn Aroostook County as of
19z. Snow squalls are occurring along the nrn portion of the Rte
1 corridor as front passes but wl be in New Brunswick within
the next 30 minutes. Fortunately these squalls are not truly
organized into a line and are more convective cells, similar to
the ones plaguing Downeast areas. Snow showers wl continue off
and on into the late afternoon hrs bfr diminishing early this
evng.

For tonight, skies will clear acrs majority of the area with loss of
daytime heating. Winds wl rmn elevated with pressure gradient rmng
strong until high begins to build tomorrow. Mins wl dip into the
minus teens acrs the Crown with single digits for Downeast. This
results in wind chills below -20F for areas from about Greenville to
Presque Isle, thus a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued from 05z-
15z Thu.

Temps wl start off cold in the morning and under mosunny skies temps
wl rise into the single digits acrs the north and into the teens for
Downeast. Winds will still be gusty, although less than what was
experience today but wind chills wl lkly rmn below zero thru most of
the FA tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a very cold night Thursday night, temperatures start to
rebound Friday through Saturday. In fact, by Saturday we will see
daytime highs running around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

As far as the synoptic pattern goes, a northeast to southwest
oriented surface high will be across the region Thursday night.
Mainly clear skies and light winds will set the stage for a good
radiational cooling night, with lows falling to 10 below to 20 below
across Northern areas and 5 below to 10 below across much of central
and Downeast Maine.

A warm front will approach the region on Friday and then lift across
the region later Friday and Friday night. High temperatures on
Friday will moderate into the mid to upper teens across the
North and lower 20s across central and Downeast areas. A few
flurries or isolated snow showers are possible with the passage
of the warm front Friday evening. Lows Friday night will not be
nearly as cold as Thursday night low`s.

Saturday will be a much milder day with partly to mostly sunny skies
expected. Highs on Saturday will range from the lower 30s north and
mid to upper 30s central and Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue right through the
middle of next week as the upper flow becomes more southwesterly
with time. This will result in the coldest air remaining north of
the border. In fact, the latest CPC 6 to 10 day outlook favors
above normal temperatures through much of next week. However, it
also favoring the probability of precipitation somewhat above
normal as well. Sunday night through Monday look dry. Did lower
NBM pops on Monday as they looked a bit to high, thus kept it
dry through Monday. Precipitation chances begin to increase
later Monday night through Tuesday as the next system moves
toward the region. Precipitation type still up in the air as
longer range models still uncertain with regard to the low
track. For now, will just go chance pops later Monday night into
Tuesday. Another system could bring more precipitation to the
region mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. Winds will continue to be gusty out of the wnw
before diminishing overnight for all but KFVE. Gusty winds pick
up again after 15z Thu.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions expected through much of the period
Thursday night through Monday. Southwest wind expected 5 to 10
kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Update...Converted Gale Warning to SCA for all zones
through early Friday morning. Moderate accumulations of
freezing spray are expected overnight and into Thur morning
before briefly diminishing.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels Thursday night through Friday. Winds/seas are then
expected to increase to SCA levels Friday night and Saturday.
The Freezing Spray Advisory will likely need to be extended
into Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MEZ001>004-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ050>052.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell/Farrar
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar/Duda
Marine...Cornwell/Farrar/Duda

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion