NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
082
FXUS61 KCAR 111150
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
650 am update...
Regional radars showing a void in precip over Downeast zones
which indicates drizzle and/or freezing drizzle already
occurring. Have passed onto day shift that coastal zones may be
able to be dropped out of the advisory this morning.
Upgrade to Winter Storm Warning over North Woods and Northeast Aroostook
County.
Areas of blowing snow over central and north Monday morning into Monday
afternoon.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snowfall amounts across the north have increased leading to difficult
travel today and tonight with freezing drizzle over Downeast leading
to slippery conditions.
2) Areas of blowing snow downwind of open and agricultural areas Monday
will lead to extremely hazardous travel with blowing and drifting
snow.
3) Low pressure lifting up to our north on Wednesday will bring
some light rain across southern areas and snow changing a mix
then rain north.
4) A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday morning
followed by abruptly falling temperatures and a chance for icy
roads.
5) Bitter cold expected Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1
Snowfall amounts across the north have increased leading to difficult
travel today and tonight with freezing drizzle over Downeast leading
to slippery conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Surface low in the initial stages of developing off of the eastern
end of Long Island. Regional radar image showing fairly light echoes
moving in from western Maine with light rain being reported at BHB
and light snow at Bangor as of 06z. Not really sure what to make
of these light echoes though 03z RRFS is showing this but quickly
fills back in as coastal low starts to take over in the next hour
or two. This puts a question on how winter weather advisories will
be affected with possibly lower snowfall totals acrs central areas
where 4 inches of snow is being forecast. Given lighter echoes and
trend of bringing freezing drizzle further north than interior Downeast
this morning, may need to adjust thru the morning hours to highlight
less snow and more icing for areas in the Upper Penobscot Valley
and portions of southern Aroostook.
Have adjusted end time of the advisories over Downeast and the Bangor
Region as snizzle expected to move in after 13z this morning before
exiting into NB this afternoon. Therefore only expecting hazardous
travel with falling precip until mid-late afternoon. Though falling
temps will result in black ice for southern areas overnight.
Further to the north, have increased snow totals slightly, into
the 6-9 inch range, with isolated locations possibly hitting the
10 inch mark. WV imagery showing upper level diffluence over nrn
New England and heading toward nrn portions of CWA. Thus, expecting
a quick thump of snow at onset with around 5 inches over the North
Woods through sunrise this morning. We`ve been advertising this
storm as being two separate waves though still considered to be one
storm. Expecting snow to lighten this afternoon before picking up
again overnight, albeit lighter than previously though. Still expecting
to see an additional 1-3 inches through Monday morning. Snow over
the north of 6 to 9 inches likely to impact the morning commute, especially
once the blowing and drifting kick in as noted in Key Message 2.
KEY MESSAGE 2
Areas of blowing snow downwind of open and agricultural areas Monday
will lead to extremely hazardous travel with blowing and drifting
snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As the low deepens over the Maritimes pressure gradient strengthens
with H9 winds around 30-35kts between 10-15z Monday. Peak time of
wind gusts from the northwest of between 30 to 35 mph will be right
around 12z Monday and the time of the morning commute. This will
lead to blowing and drifting of the fresh snow pack across the north.
This will effect mainly east-west roads downwind of the agricultural
areas.
KEY MESSAGE 3
Low pressure lifting up to our north on Wednesday will bring some light
rain across southern areas and snow changing over to a mix then rain
across the north.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure along a frontal boundary will track across Quebec north
of the St. Lawrence Valley on Wednesday. The gradient between high
pressure to our east and the low lifting up to our north will bring
a southerly wind and warm advection across the area. The system will
bring a chance of rain south and a chance of snow north with
snow over the north possibly mixing with or changing to rain
late Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday morning followed
by abruptly falling temperatures and a chance for icy roads.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure continuing into Eastern Canada combined with high
pressure building in from Central Canada will push a strong cold
front into the area Thursday morning. Cold air along the southern
edge of a core of Arctic air over Eastern Canada will filter into
the area along the front on Thursday. Wet roads from rain and wet
snow Wednesday night into early Thursday morning may become icy as
temperatures fall Thursday morning. This has the potential to
produce icy conditions for the morning commute on Thursday, mainly
across the north.
KEY MESSAGE 5
Bitter cold expected Thursday night into Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air infusing into the region behind Thursdays cold front will
bring a return of very cold weather with lows Thursday night from the
single digits below zero in the northwest to the mid teens near the
coast and highs Friday from the mid teens over the north to the mid
20s along the coast. Wind chills on Friday will range from near zero
north to the low teens by the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR conditions for Downeast terminals today with a wintry mix
expected. FZDZ will be the most impactful to runways today before
switching back over to light snow later this afternoon/evening
and ending after 03z tonight.
Northern Aroostook terminals look to be pure IFR/LIFR snow
today, with heaviest snow falling through 18z this afternoon
before lightening up to IFR. Snow may become heavy again after
00z this evening but quite a bit of uncertainty at this time.
The wild card remains KHUL. IFR/LIFR snow expected this morning
before possibility of FZDZ moves in between 15-00z today. Still
have very low confidence in TAF for HUL.
Winds out of the E/NE 5-15kts today into this evening. Winds will
back around to the NW and increase after 06z Monday. NW winds 10-
20kts gusting to 30-35kts will lead to MVFR or IFR in blowing and
drifting snow at northern terminals into early Monday afternoon.
Late afternoon winds will lighten to 10-20kts from the W.
Monday night...MVFR to VFR south. MVFR north. Light SW winds.
Tuesday...VFR south. MVFR becoming VFR north. Light SW winds.
Tuesday night...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR late. S winds.
Wednesday...IFR. S winds.
Wednesday night...IFR. S winds, becoming N late.
Thursday...IFR becoming VFR north and MVFR south. N winds.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA in effect today, for easterly wind gusts initially with seas
between 2 to 4 feet. Winds diminish as low tracks over the waters
with seas building in serly swell in the afternoon. Seas build to
between 5-10 feet Monday morning as winds become WNW and begin
gusting aoa gale force toward midnight tonight. Winds diminish below
gales Monday afternoon with small craft conditions expected thru
the end of the day.
A gale may be needed late Tuesday night into Wednesday for winds
gusting up to 35 kt over the offshore waters. Winds will diminish to
SCA late Wednesday and below SCA Wednesday night. A SCA and possibly
a gale may be needed Thursday night into Friday for gusty N
winds.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ005-
006-010-011-031-032.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
ANZ050>052.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
