NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
904
FXUS61 KCAR 301501
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1101 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated through tonight to reflect latest trends in radar and
high resolution guidance to give better timing to any
precipitation. No change to key messages.
- Updated marine section to mention possible need for a short
fused gale warning for this afternoon/evening.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wintry mix expected to develop later Tuesday and Tuesday
night for at least the northern half of the forecast area, with
a threat for slick surfaces and travel difficulties into the
Wednesday morning commute.
2) Rapidly dropping temperatures could quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute and impacting cleanup efforts.
3) Increasing chance for more wintry weather late this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Wintry mix expected to develop later Tuesday and Tuesday night
for at least the northern half of the forecast area, with a
threat for slick surfaces and travel difficulties into the
Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An open wave low pressure system will approach from the west on
Tuesday, with a warm front lifting northwards through the
forecast area Tuesday night, though the front will begin to slow
and stall overnight. The most recent guidance has now shifted to
the more southern track solution with the low, bringing the
threat of ice further south as surface temperatures remain
cooler for longer. As hires guidance begins to cover this storm,
QPF has begun to slowly creep upwards as well, with the
potential for enhancement on the north side of the low in
combination with orographic lift up into the Longfellows.
Though there has been the trend with more models shifting to be
better aligned with the Canadian ensembles (seen in Euro
ensembles and GFS and Euro deterministic), there remains some
guidance which keeps the low closer to the northern border (most
GEFS members stick to this solution with this forecast cycle,
and the ICON also continues to suggest a northern track). With
the continued uncertainty in low track, and low track being
paramount to precip type, the exact location of each precip type
cannot be determined at this time.
Hazard details:
- Ice: Since the lifting of the warm front will begin to stall
across the forecast area, a warm nose inversion will likely
remain over the same area for several areas Tuesday night,
with large quantities of precipitation moving through at this
time. There is increasing confidence that this will lead to
the accretion of at least a tenth of an inch of ice, with some
areas seeing as much as a quarter inch of ice. Ice amounts
will be reduced should the warm nose become less pronounced,
leading to the creation of ice pellets instead.
- Snow and Sleet: Snow will likely remain mostly confined to the
North Woods through northeastern Aroostook county. Snow
character will likely be heavy and wet, especially as precip
types begin to change and the snow begins to absorb water from
freezing rain. The more sleet mixes in with the snow, the
denser the snow will become as well, which could further
impair cleanup efforts. It should be noted that NBM sleet
probabilities have a notorious low-bias as the blend washes
out the finer details of the precise ingredients required for
ice pellets, but sleet probabilities from the most recent run
of the NBM approach 20 to 25 percent, leading to high
confidence that a period of accumulating sleet is likely
somewhere across the northern half of the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Rapidly dropping temperatures could quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute and impacting cleanup efforts.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The cold front behind the mid-week low pressure will lead to a
rapid drop in temperatures through Wednesday night. A LLJ will
develop ahead of this cold front, which could lead to a brief
period of gusty winds Wednesday before the FROPA. Recent
forecast soundings have trended stronger with this LLJ, and
Downeast areas could see an 850 mb jet approaching 70 to 80 kts
in strength. If these winds mix to the surface and surface winds
are strong enough for long enough behind the stratiform rain,
wet surfaces will have a chance to dry before temperatures
crash. However, any surface which remains wet behind the FROPA
could rapidly freeze, and this would return the chance for slick
surfaces Wednesday evening.
Additionally, with a rapid drop in temperatures, new snow and
sleet in the north which will have absorbed some rain during the
day on Wednesday will quickly freeze into a more solid mass that
could make cleanup efforts more difficult.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Increasing chance for more wintry weather late this week.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Yet another occluding low pressure system will approach from the
southwest through the end of the week, with a warm front lifting
northwards through the forecast area, again. Though snow remains
possible with this low, there is an increasing chance that
several hours of widespread mixed precip may occur. The low
track remains uncertain at this time range, and solutions exist
which bring wintry mix to all areas of the CWA sometime Thursday
night through Friday morning, likely impacting the Friday
morning commute.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Today...MVFR is possible this morning in scattered snow
showers, mainly KHUL N. Otherwise, becoming mainly VFR by
afternoon. S to SW wind 10 to 15kt with gusts 20kt. LLWS
possible at the terminals, mainly this morning.
Tonight...Mainly VFR expected. NW to N wind 5 to 10 kt.
Tue...MVFR or lower conditions are expected in a wintry mix
north and mainly rain for KBGR/KBHB. N to NE wind 5 to 10 kt
Tues night...IFR/LIFR. Rain at southern terminals, FZRA/PL at
northern terminals. E winds 5 to 10 kts at northern terminals,
SE winds 5 to 10 kts at southern terminals. Gusts to 20 kts.
Wed...IFR/LIFR with rain early, with quick drop in temperature
with cold front late and rapid improvement to VFR. Rapid shift
in winds to NE with afternoon cold front 10 to 15 kts gusting
20 to 25 kts.
Wed night...VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Thurs...VFR early, with cigs falling towards MVFR/IFR depending
on storm timing. NE winds around 5 kts.
Thurs night - Fri...Decreasing conditions to IFR/LIFR in mixed
precip types. Great uncertainty remains in precip type at each
individual terminal. Chance for FZRA/PL. E winds 5 to 10 kts
with gusts increasing to 20 to 25 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Recent trends in high resolution guidance suggests might need a
short fused gale warning for later this afternoon/early this
evening. Will look at additional 12z guidance before deciding
by early afternoon.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late tonight. Small
Craft Advisory conditions may need to be extended into Tuesday.
Conditions will trend upwards towards gales Tuesday night, then
winds decrease once more Wednesday night behind a cold front.
Seas 3 to 5 ft to increase towards 7 to 12 ft Tuesday night,
then gradually improve through the second half of the week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT
Wednesday for MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD/PM
AVIATION...AES/TWD/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
