NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
993
FXUS61 KCAR 151922
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
222 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Increased winds a
*Added key message for snow potential Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Flash freeze conditions tonight, freezing up any standing
water on untreated surfaces. Could make commute hazardous.
2) Potential for some gusty winds and blowing snow in the north
on Friday, reducing visibility.
3) Light snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday night may cause
minor travel impacts.
4) There is a low but notable potential (20-30 percent chance)
of significant (4 to 6 inches or more) snowfall mainly along the
Downeast coast Sunday afternoon to Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Flash freeze conditions tonight, freezing up
any standing water on untreated surfaces. Could make commute
hazardous.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure system in Canada
continues to stay to our north, as a shortwave trough moves
through northern Maine tonight. The associated cold front that
moves in along with this system has a strong temperature
gradient, so once the front passes over locations in northern
Maine, temperatures will drop quickly. Front is expected to pass
the northwest this evening, and through the northeast late
tonight. Overnight lows in the low teens in the west and
northwest, mid-to-upper teens in the northeast and interior
Downeast, and mid-20s along the coast. There could be a
hindrance to quickly dropping temperatures, however, as clouds
are anticipated to stick round all night throughout the region.
Did lower temperatures down to account for the cold air
advection behind the front, but did not drop values down
significantly past the NBM due to the aforementioned clouds.
With rain falling all day in majority of the forecast region,
wet surfaces that have been left untreated could freeze over,
resulting in some slippery road conditions.
Additionally, there is a chance for the northern portions of the
state to get some additional snowfall overnight. There could be
roughly 1 to 2 inches of snowfall in the northwest, and around
half an inch to an inch and a half in the north and northeast.
SLRs begin to quickly increase as cold air is brought back into
the region, making the new snowfall relatively light and fluffy,
which can cover over untreated icy spots. As winds shift
northwesterly behind the front, there is also chance for some
plumes off of the St. Lawrence to move over the Crown of Maine,
adding some more snowfall accumulations in the early morning.
That being said, however, a decent amount of dry mid-level air
moves in late tonight, which could knock down snow accumulation
total a bit.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for some gusty winds and blowing snow
in the north on Friday, reducing visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...As this low pressure system moves
east into New Brunswick, pressure gradient behind it is
anticipated to bring some gusty winds to the region.
Northeastern, Central Highland, and Bangor regions could see
winds up to 25-30mph. Anticipating 20-25mph gusts elsewhere.
With the recently fallen fluffier snow, on top of the wetter
snow from the day before, there is a chance for some of this
recent snowfall to blow around in these wind gusts, reducing
visibility. Blowing snow can accumulate on the roads, and with
flash freeze occurring the night beforehand, could cover up some
untreated icy spots on the roads. Exercise caution when
traveling. Pressure gradient, and winds, begin to relax Friday
night.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Light snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday night may cause
minor travel impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A mid/upper level jet max will cross the area Saturday, leading
to weak surface low pressure development. Models still differ
with the exact placement and intensity, but a general swath of
light snow is expected to develop Saturday afternoon and pivot
eastward Saturday evening. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
most likely, although forecast soundings show favorable lift
within the dendritic growth zone that may favor locally higher
snow ratios and snow rates, particularly if the low is strong
enough to locally enhance QPF from mid level frontogenesis. NBM
probabilities show a broad swath of 10 to 25 percent chance of
exceeding 4 inches of snow from just north of Bangor to around
Caribou, indicating some potential for localized advisory level
snowfall. Closer to the coast, mixing with rain is possible
depending on the low track. The main impact from this system
will be slick travel conditions Saturday afternoon and evening.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
There is a low but notable potential (20-30 percent chance) of
significant (4 to 6 inches or more) snowfall mainly along the
Downeast coast Sunday afternoon to Sunday night.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A shortwave trough will round the base of the longwave trough
along the Gulf Coast Sunday morning, quickly pivoting up the
mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday afternoon and leading to rapid
surface low development over the Atlantic. Most models keep this
system far enough offshore to have little to no precipitation
for the area. However, a notable minority such as the 12z CMC,
AI GFS, AI ECMWF, and 12z RRFS all show the low developing
further west which could lead to more widespread snowfall and
even potential for warning level (6 inch) snowfall along
portions of the Downeast coast. The latest NBM probabilities of
4 inches or more are relatively low, with a broad swath of
around 10 to 20 percent along and southeast of interstate 95.
However, these do not include the more aggressive AI models,
which is why the key message indicates up to a 30 percent chance
instead.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions at northern
terminals, from lingering fog and low cloud ceilings today. Fog
has been stubborn at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI this afternoon, and is
expected to linger into the evening. SN at KFVE, and RA at
KCAR/KPQI/KHUL. As temperatures begin to drop tonight, there is
a chance for KCAR/KPQI to change over to a RASN mix.
Precipitation will begin to taper down by Friday morning. Cloud
ceilings do begin to raise into IFR/MVFR by daybreak. Winds
generally light, from the NW. Shift W by daybreak tomorrow, with
gusts up to 25kts possible. There is a chance for some BLSN at
KCAR/KPQI/KHUL, which could reduce visibility.
KBGR/KBHB: Generally LIFR conditions at southern terminals, from
lingering low cloud ceilings today. Cloud ceilings do begin to
raise into MVFR/VFR by later tonight. Winds generally light,
from the SW. Shift W by tomorrow, with gusts up to 25-30kts
possible.
Saturday to Saturday night: VFR/MVFR at northern terminals with
-SN possible (50 percent chance). VFR/MVFR at Downeast
terminals, with a period of IFR possible in -SN/SN (60 to 70
percent chance). Winds S at 5 to 10 kts.
Sunday to Sunday night: VFR/MVFR most likely with a low (20-30
percent) chance of IFR and steadier -SN/SN. SW winds 5 to 10
kts, shifting N/NW.
Monday to Monday night: MVFR/VFR with a chance of -SHSN. W
winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Higher gusts possible
later Monday night.
Tuesday: MVFR/VFR north, VFR south. W winds 10 to 15 kts with
gusts to 30 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory out for the inter-coastal waters tonight
into Friday evening. Gale Warning out for the outer waters,
from early Friday morning, to early evening Friday. Seas will be
the highest during the day on Friday, around 8-11 ft over the
outer waters, and 5-7 ft over intra-coastals. Winds gradually
fall below SCA criteria Friday night. Light freezing spray over
all waters Friday. Some patchy fog remains over the waters this
evening in spots, until this evening. Winds from SW tonight,
shifting west by Friday.
Advisory level seas Saturday over the outer waters will decrease
Saturday night to around 5 feet and remain fairly steady through
Sunday night. Winds increase to advisory levels or marginal
gales Monday, with a period of gales likely Monday night into
Tuesday. Freezing spray risk returns on Tuesday onward as colder
air overspreads the waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ005-
010-011-031-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday
for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS
AVIATION...ASB/MWS
MARINE...ASB/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
