NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
936
FXUS61 KCAR 122325
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
725 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Updated aviation section to reflect 0Z TAFs.
-Confidence has increased on the potential for moderate
snowfall late Friday night into Saturday evening.
-Confidence has also increased on the potential for a
significant storm system to impact the entire region from
Sunday night into Tuesday, with multiple impacts becoming
likely.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A moderate snow is likely from Friday night into Saturday
evening, with several inches likely across central and northern
areas. This will likely result in slippery travel.
2) Snow should develop Sunday night, changing to rain from
south to north early Monday. Strong southerly winds are likely
from late Sunday night into Monday night. Strong convection is
also possible on Tuesday. This system has the potential to
impact the Monday morning commute across the North, cause
possible power outages, mainly across coastal Downeast from late
Sunday night into Monday night, and could possibly locally
impact travel on Tuesday.
3) Unseasonably cold weather expected through the middle of
next week. This could bring a risk of hypothermia.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A moderate snow is likely from Friday night into Saturday
evening, with several inches likely across central and northern
areas. This will likely result in slippery travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A clipper system approaches the area Friday evening. Snow looks to
spread into southwestern portions of the area around midnight Friday
night. Ensemble members are slowly coming into agreement that at
some point on Friday night a triple point low begins to develop over
the Downeast area. This will lead to enhanced lift over the Bangor
Region and interior Downeast, up into the Central Highlands with
potential for 1/2 to 1 inch per hour amounts. Snow accumulations
early Saturday morning likely to result in slippery road
conditions.
A developing closed low in the low to mid levels exits into the
Maritimes from Saturday into Saturday evening. This could bring
some additional 2-4" of snow across the North, with the bulk of
this falling Saturday morning. It looks like in total, there is
the potential for a 4-8" snowfall for all but coastal Downeast
Maine, where 2-4" is possible. If the storm tracks further south
or does not intensify as quickly as currently forecast, then
lesser amounts of snow are possible, except for possibly over
Downeast Maine and the Crown of Maine, where a more southern
storm track could result in more (less) snow respectively.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Snow should develop Sunday night, changing to rain from
south to north early Monday. Strong southerly winds are likely
from late Sunday night into Monday night. Strong convection is
also possible on Tuesday. This could impact the Monday morning
commute across the North, cause possible power outages, mainly
across coastal Downeast from late Sunday night into Monday
night, and could possibly locally impact travel on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Deep layered ridging on Sunday, will give way to a developing
cutoff low aloft that tracks into the Great Lakes Region
Monday, then up the east side of Hudson Bay on Tuesday as it
weekend. This will result in diffluence aloft over the region
from Monday night into Tuesday morning. At the surface a potent
low tracks into the southern Great Lakes Sunday night, into
Western Quebec Monday and Monday night, then into Labrador on
Tuesday. This should bring a strong, but slow moving, cold front
over the region from late Monday night into Tuesday evening.
Ahead of the system, and the cold front, the low level jet
increases to 70-80 kt, this has the potential to bring strong
gusty winds to the region, with at this time the most likely
outcome being the that advisory level winds are likely across
coastal Downeast Maine and the probable elsewhere from late
Sunday night into Monday night. There is also a 20-40% chance of
warning level winds over coastal Downeast.
The aforementioned diffluent flow aloft, coupled with the strong
low level jet, give the potential for locally heavy precipitation
across the region from late Sunday night into Tuesday morning.
This could bring a quick thump of heavy wet snow, mainly to the
North Sunday night, before the precipitation becomes everywhere
during Monday morning. There is then at least a 50% chance of
over 1" of rain along and south of a Monson to Patten to
Bridgewater line. This coupled with highs into the 50s on Monday
and remaining above freezing for all but the North Woods Monday
night, resulting in widespread snowmelt, could bring the
potential for flooding as well.
In addition, persistent strong SE-S surface flow could result in
high surf, beach erosion, and possible coastal flooding over
multiple high tide cycles from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning.
Last but not least, there is the potential for strong convection
ahead of the cold front on Tuesday. Depending on how quickly low
level cold air comes in on the backside of the system will
determine if the threat is enhanced rainfall, or possible heavy
snow showers. For now leaning towards convectively enhanced
rainfall.
There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing, strength
and track of this system. With the greatest uncertainty in terms
of impacts being the impacts from coastal flooding and any
strong convection on Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Unseasonably cold weather expected through the middle of
next week. This could bring a risk of hypothermia.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Strong gusty NW winds behind this system will usher in
significantly colder air, with highs on Wednesday only in the
low-mid 20s across the north and around 30 across Downeast Maine
and the Bangor/Penobscot Region. Wind Chills early Wednesday
morning should be 0 to 10 below across most of the North. Given
this rapid change in temperature, people caught off guard,
especially Tuesday night risk hypothermia if exposed to the cold
for prolonged periods.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...MVFR/VFR ceilings early tonight, becoming
predominantly VFR late. W wind 10 to 15 kt.
Friday...VFR. W 5 to 10kts becoming S to SE late.
Friday night...MVFR early becoming IFR in snow late at all
terminals. E to SE wind 5 to 15kts.
Saturday...IFR or lower likely, possibly improving to MVFR in
the afternoon. W winds G15-30KT possible Saturday afternoon at
southern terminals.
Saturday night...Becoming VFR throughout. W-NW winds G15-30KT
possible.
Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night...Probably becoming IFR or lower. SE winds G15-25KT
possible Sunday evening. LLWS likely late Sunday night.
Monday-Monday night...IFR or lower likely with VLIFR possible at
times. LLWS likely. Peak wind gusts of 30-45+KT possible.
Tuesday...Slowly improving to VFR from W to E. W winds G20-35KT
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions over the intracoastals tonight and over the
outer waters through Friday afternoon. NW wind this evening will
diminish Friday morning but seas will remain elevated into Friday.
Seas and winds increase again Friday night over all waters.
Gales likely on the coastal ocean waters with SCA likely on the
intra-coastals Saturday, then gales again likely on the coastal
ocean waters with gales possible on the intra-coastal waters
Saturday night. Winds become sub-SCA throughout Sunday
afternoon. Winds ramp back up Sunday night with gales possible
on all waters. Storm conditions are then likely on the coastal
ocean waters and possible on the intra-coastal waters Monday and
Monday night. Conditions should improve to gales on Tuesday.
Note seas build to 13-18ft on the coastal ocean waters by Monday
night and 7-10 ft on the intracoastal waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21/PM
AVIATION...21/TWD/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
