NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
694
FXUS61 KCAR 180621
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisory in effect through tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wind chills ranging from 5 to 15 below zero are expected
early this morning across northern Maine. Frostbite on exposed
skin can occur in as little as 30 to 60 minutes in these
conditions.
2) Wintry precipitation possible Saturday and again early next
week. Light to possibly moderate snow accumulations across the
area may bring slippery travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wind chills ranging from 5 to 15 below zero are
expected early this morning across northern Maine. Frostbite on
exposed skin can occur in as little as 30 to 60 minutes in these
conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Winds will remain elevated through early Wednesday morning with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Temperatures are expected to drop into
the single digits in northern Maine and the teens elsewhere as
strong cold air advection brings in frigid air from Canada. The
combination of breezy winds and cold temperatures will produce
wind chills of -5 to -15 degrees across northern Maine and 5 to
10 degrees Downeast. While these wind chills will not reach
advisory criteria, values this cold can still produce frostbite
on exposed skin in as little as 30 to 60 minutes. Patchy icy
spots are also possible as any standing water from earlier
rainfall and snow melt freezes.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Wintry precipitation possible Saturday and
again early next week. Light to possibly moderate snow
accumulations across the area may bring slippery travel.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Light snow moves into the area Friday evening with overrunning
precipitation blossoming late Friday night into Saturday morning
per latest NAM and GFS. Expect that precip will be all snow at
onset, outside of the immediate coast and outer islands, with snow
continuing through sunrise. As warm front lifts thru the area
Saturday morning snow will quickly mix with and eventually change
to rain south of the Katahdin Region by mid-late morning.
A rain-snow mix expected on Saturday afternoon for all but the St.
John Valley. Cannot rule out 1-3 inches falling across northern
areas by the time fropa occurs Saturday evening.
00z EC is much slower with movement of system and hence passage of
cdfnt and does not bring fropa through the region until Sunday
morning.
Given the more progressive pattern shown by the GFS it wants to
bring the next system into New England late Sunday night affecting
Downeast on Monday morning. 00z EC hinting at high pressure building
in Sunday night in wake of later passage of fropa with no sensible
weather expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...VFR. Brief MVFR possible early. W winds 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 25 kts early, decreasing to light and variable
by the evening.
Tonight...VFR. Light and variable winds becoming SE 5 to 10 kts late.
Thursday...VFR. S winds around 10 kts.
Thursday night...VFR early, becoming MVFR late especially northern
terminals. S 5-10kts.
Friday...MVFR north. Improving to VFR Downeast afternoon. WSW 5-
15kts.
Friday night...Lowering to MVFR/IFR in light snow. W 5kts becoming S
5kts late. LLWS possible Downeast terminals.
Saturday-Sunday...MVFR/IFR possible. ESE 5-15kts becoming SW 5-15kts
Sat night with WNW gusts 20-25kts Sun. LLWS possible Sat all
terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds decrease to below small craft criteria this morning on all
waters and remain below criteria through Thursday. Seas 10 to 13
ft on the coastal waters and 5 to 10 ft on the intracoastal
waters early this morning will gradually decrease to around 4 to
6 ft, just above small craft criteria, this evening on all
waters. Seas below criteria on all waters by Thursday afternoon.
Winds and seas below small craft levels through Friday evening
before seas rise above 5ft over the outer waters. Expect SCA
conditions through the weekend, with marginal gales over the
outer waters late Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
