NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
570
FXUS61 KCAR 311946
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
246 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure develops along the coast tonight, then strengthens
as it moves east into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night.
Additional weak disturbances rotate through the area into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
1) Another significant winter storm late impacting New Years
travel tonight and Thursday for eastern areas
2) Gusty winds behind system Thursday evening bringing blowing snow
3) Wind chills may drop toward -25 F across the north Thursday night
Key Message 1...
Main driver for the coastal low developing overnight is compact
s/wv dropping into srn Ontario this afternoon. Sfc low
associated with feature is located over Lake Huron and, as
disturbance drops south and east tonight, sfc low will intensify
near the Adirondacks. Snow develops along the front this
evening with steady snow developing over the Downeast coast
initially before more widespread snow moves in with the parent
low after midnight. H5 trof entering New England by 12z Thursday
and will transfer energy to the coast with secondary coastal
low fcst to develop in the vicinity of the western Gulf of
Maine.
Low will intensify during the day on Thursday, moving toward the
Bay of Fundy by afternoon. Upper trof will become negatively
tilted over CWA at the same time and will help to capture with a
track close to our border with NB. This is important because 1)
snow that will be falling Downeast, specifically Washington
County, will intensify as low deepens near the entrance to the
Bay of Fundy and 2) it may bring a deformation zone to northern
and eastern parts of the state in the evening.
Regarding the snow falling over Downeast snowfall rates will approach
1 to 1.5 inches/hr in the morning as sfc low intensifies.
Snowfall amnts of 2-5 inches look to be possible along the coast
between 12 and 18z, including the Bar Harbor area over toward
Vanceboro. Guidance continues to struggle with how quickly sfc
low moves inland over NB and snow ends Downeast. The bulk of the
snow will fall on New Years Day for Downeast with amnts
anywhere from 5-10 inches, highest over far eastern Washington
County. However, cannot rule out rain mixing in near the
Eastport area depending on how quickly sfc low cuts inland so
this may cut down some on snow amounts along the Washington
County coast.
Further to the north as low heads thru central NB on Thursday
evening, guidance is showing signs of possible fgen forcing with
a deformation band setting up. How far west that can extend
remains in question but model trends have increased with heavier
snow affecting eastern Aroostook County during the evening and
overnight hours. For the time being based on latest up-to-date
guidance and ensembles have issued a winter weather advisory for
eastern Aroostook, and all of Penobscot County including the
Bangor Region for snowfall amounts from 3-6 inches. Cannot rule
out that portions of the advisory may need to be upgraded to a
warning and/or extended in time, especially with impacts from
blowing snow which leads to Key Message 2.
Key Message 2...
Sfc low heads toward the Maritimes Thursday night with increasing
pressure gradient and strengthening low level jet. Temps aloft
will drop off quicker than sfc temps with mixing up to H9. Winds
around H9 look to range from 30-35kts. West winds will gust to
30-35 mph across the region leading to patchy blowing snow. If
snow is currently falling over the northeast, gusty winds may
bring widespread blowing snow downwind of open areas and will be
able to glean more impacts from further model guidance.
Key Message 3...
In addition to blowing snow strong winds when coupled with
forecast lows below zero over the north will bring wind chill
temps down toward negative 25 degrees. May need to issue a Cold
Weather Advisory for the north Thursday night into Friday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message...Well below normal temperatures expected Friday and
Saturday.
Low pressure will lift northeast of the region Friday and Friday
night. West to northwest flow, both at the surface and aloft, will
persist through the period. Some subtle short waves are expected to
cross the region later Friday through Saturday in the flow. Although
cant totally rule out a few flurries or isolated snow showers, will
keep the forecast dry for now. Apparent temperature values may
approach cold weather advisory levels across the North Maine Woods
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message...Continued well below normal temperatures through
early next week, then a gradual return to near normal
temperature by mid week.
Low pressure will be tracking northeast of the Carolina coast
Saturday night and then out into the open waters of the western
atlantic through Sunday. Precipitation with this system will
stay well to our south and east. But some upper level energy
cascading down in the west northwest flow aloft could bring the
chance for some light snow, mainly for coastal areas later
Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise, expect dry weather
conditions during Sunday. Mainly clear and continued very cold
conditions are expected Sunday night as the 500 MB trough axis
moves to the east of the region.
West to northwest flow continues Monday through Tuesday. There
are some indications that a short wave could bring some light
snow to the region Monday night into Tuesday, therefore will
maintain slight to low chance pops per the NBM. Another system
may approach by mid week with the next chance for snow by
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Aroostook terminals vary between low VFR and
high MVFR cigs this evening before dropping to MVFR toward 08z.
IFR snow looks to move into Aroostook terminals around 11z
Thursday, likely to remain down during the daytime hours.
Depending on storm track may see IFR/LIFR snow and blowing snow
impact terminals Thursday night.
Downeast terminals drop to MVFR in light snow between 04-06z
tonight and IFR/LIFR toward 10z in moderate snow. Uncertain on
how quickly restrictions improve but could see improvement to
MVFR by 16z. Still uncertain on how quick improvement to VFR
occurs Thursday night.
SHORT TERM:
Fri through Sat...Mainly VFR, although MVFR possible at times
vcnty KFVE.
Sat night and Sun...MVFR possible KBHB in -SN, otherwise mainly
VFR.
Sun night through Mon...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas remain above SCA levels over the outer waters
through late this evening. Winds drop below small craft levels
this evening before ramping up Thursday afternoon and gale force
by the evening hours over all waters. Moderate freezing spray
develops Thursday evening and continues through Friday morning.
SHORT TERM: Gale force gusts will persist into Friday evening,
then winds/seas will diminish the SCA levels. Winds and seas are
then expected diminish below SCA levels over the weekend.
Light to moderate freezing spray will be an issue into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to midnight EST
Thursday night for MEZ002-005-006.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for
MEZ011-015.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for MEZ016-
017-029-030-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday
for ANZ050>052.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...21/TWD
Marine...21/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
