NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
549
FXUS61 KCAR 280040
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
840 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- (830pm update) Cancelled Small Craft Advisory over the rest
of the coastal waters and updated the marine section
- Updated Aviation Discussion for the 0z TAF issuance
- Updated cloud cover forecast based on satellite and short
range guidance
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Well below average temperatures through Saturday night. Ice
will redevelop on streams, rivers, and lakes.
2) Snow, rain, and mixed precipitation is possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Well below average temperatures through Saturday
night. Ice will redevelop on streams, rivers, and lakes.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An unseasonably cold airmass is in place. Temperatures aren`t
at record cold levels, but aren`t far off. Tonight,
temperatures will range from around 5 below to 5 above in the
north, to around 10 above Downeast. Winds will drop off but not
totally go away, so wind chills will be below 0 in some spots
which will be hazardous for anyone venturing outdoors.
Still unseasonably cold during the day Saturday and into
Saturday night before temperatures start to warm on Sunday.
Saturday`s highs will be 20-25 in the north and 25-30 Downeast,
and lows Saturday night will be 5-10 above in the north and
10-20 above Downeast. Again, not record-levels, but quite cold
for the end of March. This cold spell will lead to new ice
developing in lakes, rivers, and streams where ice had
previously melted.
Generally dry through the weekend with skies partly cloudy or
clearer, but can`t rule out isolated snow showers Saturday
afternoon through Sunday. We did go higher than NBM PoPs to
account for the small (20 percent) chance of snow showers
Saturday afternoon/night associated with a weak shortwave trough
moving through.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow, rain, and mixed precipitation is possible
Tuesday into Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The right entrance region of the upper level jet is expected to
produce a surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The
track and timing of the low pressure system still shows large
uncertainty between both the deterministic and ensemble models.
As of this update, there are 2 possibilities for the track of
the low. First, if the low tracks NE and move north of the
state, then the region will be mainly under a warm front Tuesday
to Wednesday morning, thus warmer temps, mixed precip only in
the north, and rain elsewhere in the south. By Wednesday
afternoon, the cold front would move through quickly, bringing
light snow. Second, the low tracks to the south, moving directly
E over the waters. This track would put the region into a NNE
flow, bringing a cooler airmass and snow in the north and rain
to the south.
Nevertheless, the region should see precip Tuesday night and
Wednesday with breezy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...VFR. Slight (20 percent) chance of MVFR ceilings at
FVE/CAR/PQI late tonight. NW winds diminishing to 5-10 kts with
gusts 15-20 kts this evening, decreasing later tonight.
Saturday...VFR. Slight (20 percent) chance of brief MVFR in any
late day snow showers, mainly northern terminals. NW wind
around 5 kts.
Saturday Night...VFR, with a 25 percent chance of brief MVFR in
any localized potential snow showers. Light winds.
Sun-Mon...MVFR with possible north IFR in snow showers. SSW
winds 5-15 kts.
Mon night...VFR. Light WNW winds.
Tue-Wed...IFR/LIFR in snow Light and variable winds Tue morning,
then SE winds 5-10 kts Tue afternoon. Wed, variable 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Light freezing spray late tonight and Saturday morning. NW/N
winds below small craft levels through Saturday night. Seas are
2-5 ft tonight, and will gradually ease to 1-3 ft by Saturday
night.
Small Craft Advisory level winds are possible Sunday into Sunday
night, although a few gale force gusts are possible. Small Craft
Advisory level conditions are likely through early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL/MS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
