NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion



000
FXUS61 KCAR 061132
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
632 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region today. A strong cold
front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will cross the
region Tuesday. Another low will move south of the Gulf of
Maine Wednesday then exit south of the Maritimes Thursday. A
warm front will cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:30 AM Update...A corridor of moderate snow has been extending
from northern Somerset and northern Piscataquis county northeast
into east central Aroostook County through the predawn hours
with lighter snow further north. Minor adjustments were made to
raise snow amounts under this band up to 5 to 6 inches and
lower amounts just a bit across the far north. Still expecting
this band to lift north this morning with the warm front, then
begin mixing with sleet/rain toward noon.

Strong low pressure lifting up to our northwest today will pull
a warm front north across the area. A band of overrunning
precipitation will extend east across mostly central and
northern parts of our region early this morning initially
bringing snow. A winter weather advisory is up for northern
Aroostook, northern Piscataquis and northern Somerset Counties.
As warmer air surges north on strong southerly winds, the snow
will change to rain, first across interior Downeast early this
morning then rapidly pushing north becoming rain in northern
Aroostook County by early this afternoon. A mix with some sleet
and, across far the north, possibly a bit of freezing rain may
occur during the changeover. A strong southerly gradient will
result in high winds this afternoon into this evening,
especially Downeast and in southern Penobscot County where a
wind advisory will be in effect into this evening. A strong cold
front will cross the area late this evening. Convergence along
this front combined with upper level lift ahead of the upper
trough will produce a quarter to a half inch of rain across the
north and a tenth to a quarter inch of showers Downeast. Gusty
west winds, falling temperatures and drier air will quickly take
over following the front overnight. A secondary Arctic front
will reach the area toward dawn Tuesday morning, likely
accompanied with some snow showers over far northern and
northwestern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong cold front will drive through the region Tuesday morning
w/temps dropping and W winds kicking in. It look like the nrn
and wrn areas could see some snow showers, or perhaps streamers
into early afternoon as the cold W winds and cold air come off
the warmer waters of the St. Lawrence. Mdl soundings did support
the potential for some heavier snow showers, or even perhaps a
brief squall during the morning hrs. Some of the guidance such
as the NAM and even the GFS show llvl lapse rates(0-3km) of 8.0
c/km and CAPE of around 50 joules which are decent signals to
support the possible squalls. The daycrew can assess this
potential w/updated mdl guidance today. The rest of the CWA
should see sunshine, but breezy and cold. Speaking of the winds,
decided to boost the gusts up for Tuesday given the tighter
gradient into mid afternoon. Winds are expected to drop off
Tuesday night as high pres moves in from Canada. Clearing skies
and some pretty cold air setting up should allow for temps to
drop back sharply after midnight w/some of the far nrn and wrn
areas seeing temps by daybreak Wednesday below 0F. The caveat to
this is that winds could hold up a bit longer for the w and nw
border w/some clouds and a few snow showers left over.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, high pres lifts ne of the
region while clouds increase ahead of low pres apchg from s. A
cold day w/daytime temps below normal. The low is forecast to
pass s of the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday night and intensify.
The upper trof is forecast to go negative tilt which could
allow the low to get pulled back the w a bit and bring some
precip into the region, w/the bulk of the snow being near the
coast. The 00z GFS and a number of its ensembles show a band of
measurable snow to the coast and parts of the interior Downeast
w/just light amounts further n. The latest Canadian guidance
lends some support to the GFS, while the 00Z ECMWF shifted the
low track further e, just grazing the coast. Decided to lean
more toward the Canadian/GFS blend which has some support from
the NBM, bringing pops up to 60% for the coast Wednesday night.
This looks to be a fast moving storm and should be ne of the
region by Thursday morning. Attm, not expecting a heavy snow
event, just a few inches and most of this expected to be along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The active pattern continues. Another round of cold air to move
into the region Thursday into Thursday night as high pres moves
quickly over the region. We will see A continuation of below
normal temps w/Thursday night lows going into the low single
numbers, especially across the St. John Valley into the Allagash
and North Woods region. These areas could see temps below 0F by
daybreak Friday. Temps are expected to rebound on Friday
w/afternoon highs reaching close to normal. There is a weak low
that is advertised by the long range guidance to move across the
downeast region Friday afternoon into Friday evening. This
system could bring a quick hit of some snow to the northern and
central areas, while the downeast sees light rain. A brief break
in the precip Friday night w/temps remaining on the mild side
as ESE winds bring some warmer air into the region. Another
system is forecast to move across the region Saturday into
Saturday night w/precip starting out as some snow, but quickly
going to rain all the way to the nrn border as warmer air get
pulled n. This appears to be a fast moving system exiting the
region by Sunday morning w/another push of colder air from
Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Conditions will quickly lower to IFR today in low clouds over
the area, and some snow across the north. Strong southerly
winds and LLWS will set in today and continue into this evening.
IFR conditions in rain will persist this evening, improving to
MVFR then VFR from west to east after midnight. Strong gusty
winds and turbulent conditions can be expected.

SHORT TERM:
Tue-Tue night...VFR, but MVFR possible in snow showers Tue
morning for the northern terminals. W to NW wind 10-20 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts.

Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR but there is a chance for IFR in snow
for KBGR/KBHB. N to NE wind 10-15 kts.

Thu night...VFR. Light variable winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in snow showers for the northern terminals,
while KBGR/KBHB could see snow go to rain. SE winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A gale warning is up today into tonight for southerly winds up
to 40 kt today, becoming westerly late in this evening with
gusts up to 45 kt. Seas will build up to 13 ft by this evening
in response to the southerly wind.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning remains through Tue morning w/gusts
40 to 45 kt, especially over the outer zones. Seas 9-11 ft Tue
morning dropping back as winds drop off. Wind/seas will decrease
further Tue night w/N winds down to 15 kt and at 5 ft.

For Wed into Wed night...NE wind 15-20 kt w/gust to 25+ kt by
Wed night w/sea building to 5-6 ft w/some rain and snow along
the intra-coastal zone.

Thu into Thu night... N wind 10-15 kt kt w/gusts to 20+ kts
early Thu dropping off to 10 kts and becoming NE by Thu
evening. Seas 4-5 ft.

Fri...SE winds shifting to the S 15-20 kt by mid morning w/gusts
to 25 kts. Seas 4-5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A period of high astronomical tides will occur from now into
Tuesday. A strong southerly flow is expected to generate storm
surge and waves will increase to over 10 ft. Therefore, there is
potential for coastal flooding and splashover around high tide
today around noon. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been
issued for the Downeast coast today from 10 AM - 2PM.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     MEZ002>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     MEZ001.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Bloomer

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion