NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
032
FXUS61 KCAR 270655
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
155 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves from west central Quebec this morning to east
central Quebec by Friday morning, then into the northern Canadian
Maritimes Friday and Friday night. High pressure builds in Saturday
and Saturday night, then exits to the east on Sunday,as low pressure
approaches from the west. A warm front, then a cold front crosses
the area Sunday night. High pressure moves in from the west on
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Triple point located near MDI as of 06z and will track off to the
east overnight. Elevated instability has been enough to produce
thunder over the Upper Penobscot Region, heading toward the Houlton
area but not expecting much more in the way of thunder early this
morning. Sfc low along the Ontario/Quebec border has brought
occlusion into wrn Maine tonight. Convective showers and thunder
likely being forced by the H8 warm front as it lifts northeast
thru central CWA as of 06z, in combination with lift associated
with H3 jet streak punching into srn New England.
Occlusion and lift will move northeast late tonight with
precipitation ending over southwest zones by 12z and northeast zones
by 16z. Cold air works into the area between 09-12z this morning
with rain showers quickly changing over to snow showers across the
north before ending. Any accumulations look to be minor.
Surface temperatures will remain nearly steady this morning or rise
another degree or two and with cold temperatures aloft, winds should
be able to mix down with mixing depth up toward H8 today. West winds
should gust up to 25 mph this afternoon before sunset this
afternoon.
With main lift along the front moving into Canada remainder of the
daytime hours should see partly cloudy skies today. H5 low remains
"stuck" to our northwest leading to dry slot throughout the area.
This low will be waiting for a kicker, which appears to be dropping
into upr Saskatchewan from the NW Territories late tonight. This
will give upr low the nudge it needs to head into the state Friday
afternoon. As it does so, it will likely bring snow showers to the
region along with very steep lapse rates. Low and mid-level lapse
rates are favorable for snow squalls as are CAPE values, which are
between 40-100 J/kg. The only element missing are the winds. Pre-
frontal trough looks to be present between 18-21z but is not sharp
enough to result in snow squalls. Overall thinking is that locally
heavy bursts of snow will produce a quick 1-1.5 inches of snow in a
short amount of time. Given that road surfaces will likely be below
freezing on Friday, especially on bridges, holiday travel may see
significant impacts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A northern stream closed low exits to the northeast Friday
night. Could see some lingering snow showers across the North
during the evening, and possibly through most of the night
along the western border with Quebec. Elsewhere it should be
dry. Lows Friday night should be near to slightly above normal.
A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Saturday morning,
followed by northern stream shortwave ridging passing Saturday
afternoon. Could see some snow showers along the western border
with Quebec in the morning, otherwise it should be dry, with
decreasing cloud cover, especially in the afternoon. Highs on
Saturday should be around 5 degrees below normal. It should be
breezy on Saturday, with widespread wind gusts of 30-35 mph.
Deep layered ridging crests over the area Saturday night, with
increasing mid to high level cloud cover as moisture is
advected in ahead of the next system. Lows Saturday night should
be a few degrees below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The axis of a deep layered ridge should exit to the east by
early Sunday afternoon, allowing for over running precipitation
to bloom from W to E mid-late afternoon. This should be mainly
in the form of snow along and north of a Greenville to Houlton
line, with a mix of rain of snow possible from south of there
to roughly a Dexter to Princeton line with mainly rain south of
there.
Strong low level warm advection Sunday evening with a 50-60KT
low level jet will allow for moderate to locally heavy
precipitation at times. In the evening it should be all snow
north of a Dover-Foxcroft to Mt Katahdin to Houlton line, with
mainly rain to the south. During the overnight hours, there
could be enough warming in the low-mid levels across far eastern
Aroostook up to around Caribou to change the precipitation to
all rain there.
Based on the above, there is the potential for several inches of
snow to accumulate north of a Greenville-Milinocket-Haynesville
line, with lessor accumulations down to around a Dover-Foxcroft
to Danforth line, and little or no accumulations further south.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing of this system
(including onset/offset time) and how far north the rain/snow
line gets. So expect the ideas for how much snow and where any
impacts could be to change with future forecasts.
In addition to the snow and rain, there could be some strong
gusty winds Sunday night over mainly Downeast Maine with the
low level jet. There is some potential that at least coastal
Downeast Maine could end up needing a wind advisory during this
time frame.
A northern stream shortwave exits to the east on Monday.
Depending on how fast it exits, will determine how much, if any
precipitation Eastern Maine will see in the morning. This should
be mainly in the form of rain.
The region is under SW flow aloft Monday night, and with no
shortwaves progged to be embedded in the flow it should be dry.
A northern stream shortwave approaches Tuesday then exits to the
east from Tuesday night into Wednesday. The models have trended
a bit farther north with this system, so get pops to chance area
wide by Tuesday night. Could see some lingering precipitation
into Wednesday morning depending on how fast the system exits.
It should be sufficiently cold that it should be mainly snow,
except for possibly a snow/rain mix across coastal Downeast.
Temperatures should be near normal Sunday through Monday, then
below normal Monday night-Wednesday. Lows Monday night will be
the coldest of the season to date, with lows in the single
digits probable across most of the North, with mainly 10s
elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions over all terminals this morning
in rain. FVE, CAR and PQI will see IFR in snow between 12-15z
this morning. CAR, PQI and HUL should see immediate improvement
to VFR after 15z with cold frontal passage, while FVE expected
to see cigs around 025 before improvement around 20z.
Downeast terminals improve to VFR after 12z this morning.
All terminals will see winds gust from the WNW at 20kts before
diminishing with sunset.
For Friday, MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially at northern
terminals. SSW 5-15kts.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Saturday night...VFR, except for a low chance for
periods of MVFR at KFVE. SW-WSW winds G15-20KT possible Friday
night W-WNW winds G15-25KT possible Saturday and Saturday
evening.
Sunday...MVFR or lower possible. SE winds G20-40KT possible,
strongest at KBHB. LLWS likely Sunday afternoon.
Sunday Night...IFR or lower likely. LLWS likely in the evening,
WSW winds G20-30KT possible overnight.
Monday...Becoming VFR throughout. W-NW winds G20-30KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft continues for all waters today into Friday
morning with winds aoa 25kts and seas from 4 to 8ft. Winds increase
toward gale force over the outer waters late Friday afternoon as
seas remain elevated.
SHORT TERM: Gales probable on the coastal ocean waters Friday
night, so have continued the Gale Watch. SCA conditions expected
Friday night on the intra-coastal waters so have extended the
SCA through then there. Gales possible Saturday on the coastal
ocean waters, with SCA conditions likely on the intra-coastal
waters. At this time, do not have the confidence to extend the
Gale Watch through the day on Saturday over the coastal ocean
waters. Saturday night should see SCA conditions throughout in
the evening, falling below SCA levels by around midnight. SCA to
possibly gale conditions develop on the coastal ocean waters
late Sunday and continue into Monday, with SCA conditions likely
on the intra-coastal waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST
Friday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 6 AM EST
Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...21/PM
Marine...21/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
