NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
928
FXUS61 KCAR 280642
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
142 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves into the northern Canadian Maritimes through
tonight. High pressure builds in Saturday and Saturday night, then
exits to the east on Sunday,as low pressure approaches from the
west. A warm front crosses Sunday evening, followed by a cold front
crossing Maine late Sunday night and Monday morning. High pressure
then moves in from the west through Monday night. A coastal low
approaches from the south on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a cutoff low passes to the north, a shortwave trough rotates
around its base across Maine today. This will bring isolated to
scattered snow showers (rain or snow showers for coastal
Downeast). Steep low to mid level lapse rates around 8-9C/km up
to around 750mb this afternoon will allow for for locally
strong snow showers producing reduced visibilities and the
potential for a quick accumulation of snow. Will continue to
highlight this threat in the HWO and on social media. Highs
today should range from around 30 to around 40, which is near
normal.
The cutoff low exits to the northeast tonight. Cannot rule some
lingering isolated to scattered snow showers early across the
North. Should see diminish clouds through the night. Lows
tonight should generally be from the lower 20s to upper 20s,
which is around 5 degrees above normal.
A northern stream shortwave moves across Saturday morning,
followed by northern stream ridging building over the area
Saturday afternoon. Other than possibly some isolated to
scattered snow showers over far NW zones with the shortwave in
the morning, it should be dry, with decreasing cloudiness
through the day. Highs on Saturday should be around 5 degrees
below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...Light snow event for Northern Maine Sunday and
Sunday evening likely to impact travel.
Chilly Saturday night with high pressure overhead, with lows
mainly in the teens. The high pressure quickly moves east Sunday
as the next system races in. This system will feature a primary
surface low pressure passing from southwest to northeast to our
north. An occluded front will be draped south of the surface
low, with perhaps a weak triple point surface low developing
over central portions of our area as it moves through.
Importantly, precipitation looks to develop midday/early afternoon
Sunday, and will start as snow to the north of Bangor, perhaps
mixed with snow at the onset around Bangor but quickly changing
to rain. Precipitation doesn`t look terribly heavy, but the snow
should be heavy enough to lead to hazardous travel conditions
along and north of a roughly Dover-Foxcroft/Lincoln/Danforth
line during the afternoon. There`s a pretty good mild southerly
wind at low-levels with this system, and think that most areas
along I-95 and up into Eastern Aroostook will warm freely and
mix with or change to rain from south to north late afternoon
into the evening before tapering off around midnight. There is a
bit of model uncertainty as to how quickly/how much the warm
air surges north, and if a stronger triple point low develops
over central portions of the area, that could shut off the warm
advection and keep the north all snow. That said, the more
likely solution is a changeover to rain for all but areas from
Fort Kent west/southwest into the North Woods. For snow totals,
this is not looking like a terribly significant event, with
generally 1-4 inches of fairly wet snow north of the Dover-
Foxcroft/Lincoln/Topsfield line, with highest amounts in the
North Woods and St John Valley. Can`t rule out a few spots
higher than 4 inches, but think the upper ceiling for this event
is about 6 inches, and if this occurs, it would most likely be
in the St John Valley or North Woods.
South/southeast winds will be decent for this event with 10-15
mph with gusts to 25 mph where the snow will be falling. With
the snow being fairly wet, didn`t add any blowing/drifting snow
to the forecast, but there may be some small amounts of
blowing/drifting snow occurring Sunday afternoon/evening. Winds
look a bit stronger toward the coast. Can`t rule out needing a
wind advisory for the coast Sunday afternoon/evening, with gusts
topping out somewhere in the 35-45 mph range. Don`t anticipate
anything more than isolated power outages.
Models overall are in good agreement for the Sunday/Sunday
evening storm.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message...Possible significant snow Tuesday/Tuesday night,
best chance Downeast.
Colder air rushes back in from the west behind the system Monday
with gusty westerly winds, with temperatures likely steady or
slowly falling through the day. There should be a big enough gap
in the precipitation ending Sunday night and the sub-freezing
temperatures that don`t expect a flash freeze on the vast
majority roads, though icy spots in driveways are likely Monday
afternoon/evening.
Very cold Monday night as high pressure builds in, with lows
10-15 above Downeast and 5 below to 10 above in the north,
coolest in the valleys.
Then attention turns to a potential major winter storm Tuesday/Tuesday
night, coming from a fast-moving upper trough and surface low
passing from west to east to our south. It`s very important to
note this is just a possibility, and far from a certainty. A
slight majority of models/ensembles bring significant snow to at
least central/southern portions of the area, but a significant
minority bring nothing and keep everything south of our area. A
few probabilities of note from the NBM...45-70 percent
probability of at least 1 inch, 35-50 percent probability of at
least 4 inches, and 25-40 percent probability of at least 8
inches. Bottom line is this system has what you could call a
high ceiling/high potential, but it is only a possibility at
this point.
Beyond the potential Tuesday/Tuesday night storm, we`ll be
looking at a potential Arctic front late Thursday or Thursday
night. Lots of uncertainty this far out, but potential does
exist for extremely cold air toward Friday and snow showers or
squalls if we do get the Arctic front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: With the possible exception of a low end chance for
MVFR or lower conditions in very localized heavy snow showers in
the late afternoon/early evening at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI - it should
be VFR through the TAF period. Winds become SW at under 10 kt
at all but KHUL, where winds should remain light and variable,
by late this afternoon. KBHB could see gusts to 15-20KT this
afternoon as well.
Late tonight and Saturday...VFR. WSW-WNW winds G15-25KT
possible.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday Night. VFR. Variable wind less than 10 kts.
Sunday and Sunday night...VFR early Sunday, becoming IFR/MVFR
in the afternoon and into Sunday night. Snow and rain, with rain
more favored for BGR/BHB. S winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30
kts, strongest winds BHB/BGR. LLWS likely.
Mon...VFR, except possible MVFR north. NW wind gusting 20-30
kts.
Tue...MVFR or lower possible in snow, especially south, but
confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions become Gales by this afternoon on the
coastal ocean waters and should last through Saturday. As a
result have moved up the start time of the Gale to noon today
and extended its end time to 6pm Saturday. For the intra-coastal
waters, it appears that SCA conditions should start by mid
morning and last through Saturday, so have adjusted the SCA
timing to 8am today through 6 pm Saturday.
SHORT TERM: South gales expected (greater than 75 percent
chance) late Sunday and Sunday night, with seas to around 10 ft.
Winds switch to the west Monday but remain near the border of
small craft and gale. Much improved winds/seas Monday
night/early Tuesday, but about a 50 percent chance of gales
around Tuesday night from a possible Nor`easter. Seas could also
build back up to around 10 ft, depending on the track of the
Nor`easter.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-
051.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EST
Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...PM
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...PM/TF
Marine...PM/TF
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
