NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
439
FXUS61 KCAR 140717
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
317 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly exits to the east through today while a
coastal low tracks well to the south from the Mid-Atlantic
coast. A cold front crosses Maine Wednesday morning, followed
by high pressure building in from the west through Friday night.
A warm front lifts over the area on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today high pressure near the Gaspe Peninsula is drifting slowly
east while the Mid Atlantic coastal storm drifts east. A weak
shortwave at 500mb approaches from the NW with a weak surface
cold front. Any showers today will be few and far between and
many locations remaining dry. High temperatures top out in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Today expecting relatively good weather along the Downeast
Coast in places like Acadia National Park. If anyone is heading
to the coast to experience peak foliage or heading to the
beaches will experience dangerous nearshore surf. We are
continuing a High Surf Advisory for areas along the coast till
8PM. Today seas 4-8ft every 10-12 seconds will be crashing into
the coastline along with a high risk of rip currents. Rip
currents and sneaker waves will lead to dangerous beach
conditions. Waves crashing against rocks can splash violently
upward and wash onlookers out to sea. Some minor beach erosion
is possible. Our messaging is if you plan to be along the
shoreline, keep your distance from the water, and never turn
your back on the ocean.
Tonight, the front will cross the area into Wednesday morning.
Behind it pressure gradient tightens and winds shift N-NW with a
breeze developing by daybreak. Temperatures will be in the
upper 30s to low 40s tonight but a few spots in the North Woods
and St. John Valley dip back into the low 30s with frost.
On Wednesday an upper level low dips south over Maine with
significantly cooler air aloft. 540 line dives south over the
Gulf of Maine as 850mb temps fall back into the -3C to -4C
range. A weak semi-inverted surface trof will extend back over
New Brunswick near the Maine border. This will be the focus for
isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday as daytime heating
bubbles up cu under the colder airmass. Expecting mainly rain
showers but cannot rule out graupel mixing in if there is more
robust convective showers. At the same time some snowflakes will
mix in at higher elevations like Katahdin with perhaps a
dusting. Most of the shower activity will be confined closer to
the New Brunswick border. It will be a cool day with NW winds
gusting 15-30mph across the area. Highs top out in the upper 40s
to low 50s north with mid to upper 50s for the Central Highlands
and around 60F along the Downeast coast. Expect areas that have
peak foliage to lose a significant amount of the leaves.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night the upper level low will continue to move
southeastward over Eastern Maine and New Brunswick. This will
bring some instability over northern Maine, with the potential
for showers over Eastern Maine. Cold air behind this low brings
the possibility of snow mixing in during the early morning hours
on Thursday. This should be fairly short-lived as temperatures
warm with diurnal heating. Winds will also be somewhat gusty
Wednesday night and Thursday as approaching high pressure
tightens the gradient. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are likely for most
of the area, possibly reaching 30 to 35 mph over the highest
terrain.
By Thursday night, the main trough axis will have shifted far
enough eastward that Maine will feel more of the influence of
the ridge, and winds will slowly decrease through the evening.
Temperatures will remain in the mid 30s over the eastern half of
the forecast area, while over the western half, the atmosphere
will decouple and temps will drop into the upper 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cooler temperatures will last through Saturday morning, with
highs on Friday in the mid-50s and morning lows on Saturday
generally below freezing for the northern half of the forecast
area. On Saturday, the apex of the ridge will move eastward and
return flow will begin to affect the region. There is some
question as to whether a weak warm front will cross the area on
Sunday, bringing showers with it. Due to model uncertainty,
forecast only contains a chance of showers for now. What is more
certain however, is that warming temperatures are expected with
southwest flow. Highs on Sunday will be unseasonably warm,
reaching the low to mid-60s. The likelihood of precipitation
increases Monday and Tuesday, as a cold front associated with
the same system approaches from the west. Monday looks like the
best chance for widespread precipitation in a while. After
Monday, models have significantly different solutions for the
main low, so confidence in the pattern for Tuesday at the moment
is low. However, a cooling trend will return and the weather is
expected to be more seasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs. VCSH at southern terms this morning. Mainly
VFR through tomorrow. Winds today light and variable. Tonight
continued light and variable shifting NW late. VFR tomorrow,
cannot rule out brief SCT MVFR cigs over northern terms tomorrow
afternoon. Areawide NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-25kt.
SHORT TERM:
Weds night...VFR for southern sites. VFR/MVFR for
northern sites becoming MVFR late. NNW winds 10-15 kts with
gusts to around 25 kts.
Thurs...VFR for southern sites. MVFR for northern sites
improving to VFR in the afternoon. NNW winds 10-15 kts with
gusts to around 25 kts during the day.
Thurs night through Sat...VFR. NNW winds 10 to 15 kts, weakening on
Friday and becoming light and variable on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds subsiding below SCA this morning but long
period swells remain. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 5AM Wednesday for the intra-coastal waters and 8PM
Wednesday for the coastal waters. Seas 7-11ft this morning
subsiding to 5-8ft this afternoon with periods of 10-12sec. Seas
generally lower at 3-6ft along the Hague Line near the Bay of
Fundy. Tonight the winds will shift NW and seas subsiding to
between 4 and 6ft. Tomorrow NW winds will increase and gusts may
approach SCA levels by late day. Seas generally 4-5ft except
3-4ft near the Hague Line and Bay of Fundy. Sea surface water
temperature are in the 53-55F range from the Downeast coast out
25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and
Penobscot bays.
SHORT TERM: Small craft winds will remain present through
Thursday, gusting up to 30 kts. Some possibility for min gales
exists in the very outer waters on Thursday, although at this
point it is a low chance. Winds will finally decrease below 25
kts on Friday. Seas during this period will be generally 4 to 6
feet on Thursday, subsiding to 3 to 5 on Friday. Offshore flow
will keep higher seas further offshore during the short term.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...JS/LF
Marine...JS/LF
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
