NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
454
FXUS61 KCAR 112004
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since last forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional snow across northern areas through this evening
will continue to impact travel.
2) Areas of blowing snow late tonight and Monday will result in
locally reduced visibilities particularly in the open
agricultural areas of Aroostook county.
3) Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.
4) Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with uncertain timing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Occasional snow across northern areas through this evening will
continue to impact travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will intensify across the Canadian Maritimes provinces
tonight while an upper level low crosses the region.
After a brief break in the steadier snow this afternoon,
another round of snow is expected to develop late this afternoon
into this evening. This will primarily impact areas to the
north of the Katahdin region. The most likely time for any heavier
snowfall rates and travel impacts will be between 5 pm and
10 pm this evening. The snow will gradually wind down after
midnight with little additional snow accumulation expected
thereafter.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Areas of blowing snow late tonight and Monday will result in
locally reduced visibilities particularly in the open
agricultural areas of Aroostook county.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Tightening surface pressure gradient in the wake of intensifying
low pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will result in gusty
northwest winds developing late tonight into Monday afternoon.
This will result in areas of blowing snow developing in time
for the Monday morning commute, especially across the open
agricultural areas of Aroostook county. This will result in the
potential for some locally reduced visibilities at times,
especially through Monday morning. Winds will gradually
decrease by afternoon with the threat of any blowing snow
impacts becoming less.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A clipper system will track northwest of the region Wednesday.
Warmer air will be drawn north across the forecast area in
advance of the clipper system. An early rain/snow mix should
transition to rain across Downeast areas Wednesday with minimal
snow accumulations. Across northern areas, expect precipitation
mostly in the form of light snow though the snow could possibly
mix with rain during the afternoon. Current indications only
support light snow accumulations across northern areas
Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday
with uncertain timing.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
The clipper system which tracks northwest of the region
Wednesday will draw a strong cold front across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the exact timing of
this front remains uncertain dependent on the timing/location
of low pressure developing in the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday.
Temperatures will fall steadily in the wake of the cold front
supporting the possibility of a flash freeze dependent on how
rapidly temperatures fall Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are expected at the Aroostook
county terminals tonight. Conditions will improve to MVFR Monday
morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon, with VFR
expected Monday night.
IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected at KBGR/KBHB through early this
evening, conditions are then expected to improve VFR tonight and
continue through Monday night.
N wind 10 to 15 kt tonight, then increasing to 15 to 25 kt with
G35kt, primarily at the Aroostook county airports. W wind 5 to
10 kt Monday night.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early then
lowering to MVFR/IFR with developing light snow. Across Downeast
areas, VFR early then VFR/MVFR with a chance of light
snow/rain. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
Wednesday...Across northern areas, IFR/LIFR with light snow
possibly mixed with rain during the afternoon. Across Downeast
areas, IFR/LIFR a chance of light rain possibly mixed with snow
early. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots.
Wednesday night... Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR then
VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. VFR/MVFR with a chance of
snow showers Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
northwest/north.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow north. MVFR/IFR with a
chance of snow Downeast. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
A gale warning is in effect for the coastal waters tonight
through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 45 kt expected at
times. Winds/seas will subside to SCA levels by later Monday
night.
Small craft advisory conditions possible early Tuesday, then
again Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A chance of rain
Wednesday, then a chance of rain/snow showers Wednesday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ005-
006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWD/CN
AVIATION...TWD/CN
MARINE...TWD/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
