NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
617
FXUS61 KCAR 112210
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
510 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of troughs of low pressure cross the region through
Friday as a strong low tracks through the Canadian Maritimes. Weak
high pressure builds in Friday night, then exits to the east on
Saturday. Low pressure develops along the mid Atlantic coast
Saturday night, then passes to the south on Sunday. High pressure
then builds in from the west through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5:10PM UPDATE...Have issued an SPS for Aroostook and Northern
Penobscot counties through to 11PM EST. This is for blowing snow
across the open fields of these areas. Winds are increasing
across the area as the TROWAL moves NE out of northern Maine
which is helping create light snow across the north. Expecting
all this fresh light fluffy snow to be picked up and blown
around in any open areas. Looking back to the west in GYX CWA we
see winds already gusting 20-30mph and increasing and we just
started gusting here at the office to 25mph. Expecting gusts
tonight 25-35mph with isolated higher gusts across the
Greenville region. Traveling Route 6 between Shirley to
Greenville may experience areas of blowing snow in those open
fields and traffic should use caution in those areas, have added
it to the forecast. Otherwise rest of the CWA will see those
increasing westerly winds and falling temperatures with the cold
air advection. CWA wide we will see wind chills falling below
zero with then ranging generally -10F to -5F but -15F possible
in the stronger wind gust areas. Lastly, adjusted POPs for the
night expecting scattered snow showers across the north. There
was an update to the Marine Headlines see below...
Previous Discussion...
A cutoff low tracks from northern Maine this evening into
Maritimes through Friday. The result will be another round of
light snow across the north late this afternoon/evening, then
more isolated to scattered snow showers, once again mainly
across the North late tonight and Friday. Accumulations should
generally range from 1/2 to 3 inches, with higher amounts of 4-8
inches possible along higher terrain along the western border
with Quebec. Expect winds to increase this evening and remain
gusty through Friday. Should see gusts of 30-45mph from late
tonight through Friday. This will produce patches of blowing
snow across the North, especially in areas receiving more than
an inch or so of snow late this afternoon/tonight. For now
expect winds to remain below wind advisory criteria, however
cannot rule out some gusts towards 50 mph, with the best chance
in the Central Highlands, but confidence in this is not high
enough to reflect in the forecast at this time. Lows tonight
should be mainly in the 10s, with wind chills from 0 to 15
below. Highs on Friday should be from the upper 10s to upper
20s, this is around 10-15 degrees below normal.
Northern stream ridging builds in Friday night, associated
subsidence should keep things dry, with some thinning of the
clouds, especially overnight as the ridge axis slides over
Maine. Wind gusts of 25-45 mph (strongest Central Highlands) in
the early in the evening, should decrease in strength through
the night. Could still see some patchy blowing snow across the
North in the evening as a result. Lows Friday night should be
from a few to around 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Point:
* Light snowfall possible Downeast on Sunday
Discussion:
A narrow ridge of high pressure will cross the forecast area on
Saturday, with dry weather and continued mostly cloudy skies as
the low pressure system quickly approaches from the west.
Southwest winds on the backside of this ridge will advect
slightly warmer air into the region, with high temperatures on
Saturday lifting into the low to mid 20s in the north and up to
around freezing closer to the coast.
With the relaxed pressure gradient associated with the ridge,
surface decoupling Saturday night may allow for temperatures to
drop into the single digits in the north and lower teens
Downeast. Lingering cloud cover may help in preventing
temperatures from rushing towards zero, though if the forecast
trends clearer, this may then be realized.
An occluded low will approach from the west into the day on
Sunday, with a triple point coastal low developing over the Gulf
of Maine as the system moves through our forecast area. The
coastal low will enhance precip amounts for the Downeast region,
but the entire system is currently on track to be fairly
moisture starved and quick moving, so total snow amounts are
likely to remain below an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Points:
* Gusty winds possible on Monday
* Temperatures near zero Monday night
Discussion:
As the previous low pressure system lifts out of our forecast
area and off into the Canadian Maritimes, it will begin to
rapidly deepen. Northwest winds over the St. Lawrence river
could lead to bands of river-effect snow showers through Sunday
night. The pressure gradient between the falling low pressure
and the approaching ridge from the west will tighten, and could
lead to gusty winds into Monday. The strength of these winds
will depend some on how far east the low pressure travels before
deepening, as if it makes it into the North Atlantic before
plummeting towards 950 mb, the tightest pressure gradient will
remain in Canada and winds may not increase much in our area. If
the CMC 00z run is a more accurate representation of how events
unfold, the low could deepen west of Newfoundland and winds
could be stronger over our CWA.
As a ridge of high pressure returns to northern New England,
winds will decrease Monday night into Tuesday. If winds drop off
quick enough, surface decoupling could lead to temperatures
Monday night falling below zero across the north and near zero
Downeast. However, if enough of a LLJ remains aloft,
temperatures will remain on the positive side of zero, though
still cold in the single digits.
High pressure will remain the dominant synoptic pattern over
the region through the middle of the week, with another
shortwave low pressure system quickly moving through the CWA
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing with it the next chance
for snow.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR at southern terminals through
the TAF period. Northern terminals should vary between MVFR and
VFR both respect to ceilings and visibilities. There is also a
chance of IFR at KFVE late this afternoon/evening and again
Friday morning. Winds become gusty out of the WNW-WSW this
evening KHUL/KBGR/KBHB and during the overnight hours
elsewhere. WInd gusts around 20-25KT, and remain so through
early Friday afternoon. KFVE could see wind gusts to around 30KT
Friday morning/early Friday afternoon.
Friday afternoon-night: VFR southern terminals, MVFR/VFR
northern terminals, becoming VFR throughout by late Friday
night. NW winds G15-25kt possible into Friday evening.
SHORT TERM:
Sat - Sat night: MVFR north, VFR Downeast. SW winds 5 to 10 kts
becoming light and variable overnight.
Sun: MVFR north, mostly VFR Downeast with a chance of snow
showers. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Sun night: VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers. NW
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 kts.
Mon: Mainly VFR across all terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 25 kts.
Tues: VFR across all terminals. W winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...Cancelled the SCA and moved up the start of
the Gale Warning to immediately. Winds are rapidly increasing
and expected to reach gale force gusts within the next hour over
the intra-coastal waterways.
Previous Discussion...
Issued SCA for the intra-coastal waters for the
remainder of this afternoon, followed by Gale Warning beginning
there now at 23Z. Expect Gales on all waters tonight and
Friday. Should see SCA conditions return ont he intra-coastal
waters late Friday afternoon and on the coastal ocean waters
around midnight Friday night. As a result, extended the gale
warning there through 5Z Saturday. With the gusty winds, cold
air temperatures and marginally cold SSTs, should see some light
freezing spray on all waters.
SHORT TERM: Below small craft advisory conditions will last
through most of the day on Sunday, though winds will begin to
increase late as a low pressure strengthens as it moves through,
and gusts will become gale strength Sunday night. Gales could
last through the day on Monday, depending on how quickly the low
exits to the east, and NW swell with seas 3 to 7 ft will carry
through this time. Conditions gradually improve into the day on
Tuesday, briefly falling below SCA criteria before increasing
once more into the middle of next week with the next low
pressure system.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...PM/JS
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...PM/JS/AES
Marine...PM/JS/AES
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
