NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
626
FXUS61 KCAR 140002
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
702 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* 7PM Update: Increased wave heights based on wind direction
tonight into Wednesday. Extended SCA on intracoastal waters
into Wednesday afternoon based on these higher seas.
* Confidence is increasing in light snow in northern and
central Maine tonight into Wednesday, alongside fog
development, impacting Wednesday morning commute.
* Confidence increasing in light snow NW areas/Snow-Rain mix to
Rain E Aroostook/N Penobscot Wednesday night and Thursday.
* Confidence increasing in potential for flash freeze for
Eastern/Central/Downeast Maine Thursday night.
* The system for Saturday night and Sunday has trended a little
colder, making snow more expansive. Now a mix of rain and
snow is potentially being limited to only coastal Downeast
Maine.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow North, light rain south, along with fog
development overnight, that could impact the Wednesday morning
commute.
2) Snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday northwestern
areas, a rain/snow mix changing to rain over northeastern Maine
and rain elsewhere. This could impact the morning and evening
commutes on Thursday.
3) Arctic air will filter into the area Thursday night into Friday
bringing abruptly colder conditions and possibly icy roads.
4) Snow is possible Saturday night and Sunday over Mainly
Eastern Maine, except for a rain/snow mix being possible
coastal Downeast. This could impact travel on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light snow North, light rain south, along with fog
development overnight, that could impact the Wednesday morning
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure over to the west begins to move northeast, bringing a
warm front across the region tonight, advecting some warm air
into the area for tomorrow. Lift provided by the front helps to
drops some snow overnight over the region, predominantly in the
north and central regions. Downeast and coast should be warm
enough for all precipitation to be rain. Generally looking at
about an inch or two in terms of accumulations in the north.
Cold snowpack and advection of warm air will help cause fog to
develop around the region tonight. Snow expected to be
comparatively wet. Snow moves out of the region by Wednesday
morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday northwestern
areas, a rain/snow mix changing to rain over northeastern Maine
and rain elsewhere. This could impact the morning and evening
commutes on Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Vertically stacked low pressure system to the west approaches
Wednesday night, bringing a period of rain Downeast, as a
rain/snow mixed precipitation transition line forms from
roughly Greenville to Presque Isle. North of this line, will be
snow. Warm air advection ahead of approaching frontal system,
results in patchy fog development throughout the region,
especially as surface remains cold due to steady snow pack.
Anticipating roughly half an inch to an inch across the
northwest and far north Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
A full latitude trough approaches from the west Thursday, then
begins to build into Maine Thursday evening, as a surface low
tracks across Maine, then into the Maritimes Thursday evening.
This will allow for mild air to build in to the south of the
low, causing mainly rain across Downeast Maine, the
Bangor/Penobscot Region and S Piscatiquis County, with snow
changing to Rain across N Penobscot/SE Aroostook and snow mixing
with or changing to rain over NE Aroostook Thursday morning.
The precipitation should end as a period of snow showers over
the North before ending Thursday evening. 1-3" of snow is
possible over N Aroostook/Piscatiquis/Somerset with less than an
inch possible across the remainder of the North. There is still
some uncertainty on the exact track and strength of this
system, so the exact dividing point between all snow/all rain
and a snow/rain mix and snowfall amounts likely will change. A
moderate snowfall over mainly the AS CHANGED... Confidence is
increasing North Woods cannot be ruled out at this time. Highs
on Thursday should range from the lower 30s to upper 30s across
the North and from Around 40 to the lower 40s elsewhere, this is
10-15 degrees above normal. West winds could gusts 20-30 mph
Thursday afternoon. Temperatures fall off Thursday afternoon,
most notably over NW areas where they fall into the mid teens to
around 20 by evening.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Arctic air will filter into the area Thursday night into Friday
bringing abruptly colder conditions and possibly icy roads.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The axis of a full latitude trough crosses the area late
Thursday night, then exits to the east Friday, as northern
stream shortwave ridging builds in. This will allow for Canadian
high pressure to build in immediately behind a strong cold
front Thursday night and Friday. The greatest fall off in
temperatures should occur Thursday evening in most locations
with temperatures from the mid single digits to mid teens
across the North and mid teens to mid 20s elsewhere by around
midnight and wind chills to the single digits below zero to the
single digits above zero across the North and mid single digits
to mid teens elsewhere. This rapid fall of temperatures could
cause a flash freeze of any untreated surfaces Thursday
evening, making the evening commute dangerous. Lows Thursday
night bottom out from around 5 below to around 10 above which is
near to a few degrees below normal. Temperatures only rise to
the mid teens to around 20 across the North on Friday and lower
20s to around 30 elsewhere.
In addition to the potential flash freeze, there could be some
strong snow showers possible with the passage of the front
Thursday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
Snow is possible Saturday night and Sunday mainly over Eastern
Maine, except for a rain/snow mix being possible coastal
Downeast. This could impact travel on Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A northern stream shortwave lifts northeast from the Great
Lakes Saturday night, followed by a northern stream trough
moving into eastern Quebec on Sunday. This will support a broad
area of low pressure crossing Saturday night and Sunday. This
could bring periods of snow Saturday night and Sunday over
mainly Eastern Maine, with a mix at this time appearing to be
limited to coastal Downeast Maine. At this time, there is still
quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact track, strength and
timing of this system, so the impacts, beyond the potential
impact to travel on Sunday, and an estimate of snowfall are not
reasonably predictable at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight through Wednesday: VFR/MVFR due to low cloud ceilings
from approaching frontal system to the west. Light SE to S winds
this evening. Light snow possible in the north overnight, with
gusts back up to the 15-20 kts range by daybreak on Wednesday.
Ceilings will drop down to MVFR/IFR heights after midnight for
northern terminals, and approach low end VFR/high end MVFR for
BGR and Downeast terminals overnight. Potential for fog
development on Wednesday, reducing visibility that could begin
to dip towards MVFR. Marginal chance of LLWS between around
midnight and sunrise overnight tonight, depending on how strong
of a surface inversion develops and how high surface winds and
gusts become overnight.
Wednesday night...IFR, possibly lowering to LIFR. Winds light
and variable.
Thursday: IFR or lower probable, probably becoming VFR at
southern terminals in the afternoon. Sw-WS winds G15-20KT
possible in the afternoon.
Thursday night: IFR or lower possible at northern terminals in
the evening, becoming VFR throughout. WSW-W wounds G15-25KT
probable.
Friday: VFR. WSW-SW winds G15-20KT possible.
Friday night-Saturday: MVFR possible in snow showers. SW winds
G15-30KT possible Friday evening and again Saturday morning.
Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in snow, except
rain/snow mix possible KBHB. S-SW winds G15-25KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions over the coastal waters
starting tonight, adding in the intra-coastals later tonight.
SW winds will increase tonight into Wednesday. Seas gradually
rise to 6 to 10 ft over the coastal waters Wednesday. There is
a chance of rain and fog tonight into Wednesday which could
limit visibility.
SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Thursday
morning, with gales then possible on the coastal ocean waters
from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, with SCA
conditions probable on the intra-coastal waters. Will highlight
this gale threat in the HWO. SCA conditions likely on all
waters Friday and Friday night. The SCA conditions could then
continue on the coastal ocean waters through the weekend, mainly
for seas. Sub-SCA conditions are currently forecast on the
intra-coastal waters for the weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EST
Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB/PM
AVIATION...AES/ASB/PM
MARINE...AES/ASB/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
