NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
717
FXUS61 KCAR 181907
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
307 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach this evening and cross the region
tonight. High pressure will build toward the area Friday, cross
the region Saturday then exit across the Maritimes Sunday into
Monday. A cold front will begin to cross the region Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures continue this
afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the
west. As the cold front enters the region this evening, cloud
cover will increase and a few showers will move into northern
Aroostook spreading south overnight. Precipitation is likely to
remain light and dissipate before the front reaches the area
south of the I95 corridor as a result of the dry airmass ahead
of the boundary. Measurable precip is likely to stay confined to
Aroostook county and is unlikely to exceed 0.1.
Some patchy fog along the coast is possible early Friday
morning before cooler, drier air funnels into Maine behind the
front. Northwest winds will gust to 25 to 30 mph on Friday and
relative humidity is expected to drop into the 30-40% range
making for a very dry day.
Clear skies Friday night will lead to decent radiational cooling
but light winds induced by the pressure gradient between the
departing front and the high building in from the west should
help prevent full decoupling of the near surface layer.
Regardless, temperatures are still expected to dip below 32 in
much of northern Maine. Thus, have issued a freeze watch for
northwest Maine due to high confidence in subfreezing
temperatures. There is lower confidence on the areal coverage of
northeast Maine that will dip below 32 so held off on a watch
for those areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds across the region Saturday through Saturday
night with mostly clear skies. Could still have breezy conditions
Saturday with northwest/west wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph, though
winds should begin to diminish during the afternoon with a weakening
pressure gradient. High pressure then begins to exit to the
southeast Sunday through Sunday night. Expect mostly sunny skies
Sunday. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear
Downeast, Sunday night. Temperatures Saturday will be at slightly
below normal levels, with near normal level temperatures Sunday.
Saturday night should be the coldest night of the season with near
freezing or sub-freezing temperatures across much of northern Maine.
Patchy frost could also possibly reach into the normally coldest
portions of the Downeast region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain ridged southeast of the region Monday with
partly sunny skies north, mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast. A cold
front should begin to approach northern Maine later Monday night
while low pressure tracks along the front. An upper level trof
should also begin to approach later Monday night. Expect mostly
cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across northern areas
Monday night, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. The cold front
should move south across the region Tuesday, exiting across the Gulf
of Maine Tuesday night. The upper trof should also cross the region
Tuesday. Will have a chance of showers across the region Tuesday in
advance of the cold front along with partly/mostly cloudy skies. The
upper trof exits across the Maritimes Wednesday while a disturbance
moves through the trof. At the surface, high pressure will
begin to build across the region. Could still have the slight
chance of a shower Wednesday. However, generally expect partly
cloudy skies. High pressure should build across the region
Thursday with partly cloudy skies. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday, with near normal level
temperatures Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tonight...All terminals VFR the rest of today. BHB
is likely to become LIFR in low clouds and patchy fog tonight
but should become MVFR/VFR by daybreak. For BGR, likely to stay
at VFR and possibly MVFR but there is a low chance conditions
could deteriorate to IFR/LIFR depending on if fog and low clouds
reach that far north. HUL is likely to stay VFR while
FVE/CAR/PQI will likely experience a brief period of MVFR before
daybreak in low clouds and a few scattered showers. SW wind
becoming NW at 5 to 10 kts.
Friday...VFR expected with NW winds 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts
Friday night...VFR with NW winds around 5 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday through Monday...Variable conditions with any patchy,
mostly river valley, fog both Saturday/Sunday nights. Otherwise,
VFR. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots, diminishing to around 10 knots Saturday. Light and variable
winds Saturday night. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday
through Sunday night, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots Monday.
Monday night...Occasional MVFR with a chance of showers across
northern areas. Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10
knots.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. South/southwest winds
around 10 knots, becoming southwest/west.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through the
end of the period. Seas generally ranging from 1-3 feet. SW wind
less than 10kts this afternoon will become northwesterly Friday
morning with gusts approaching 20 kts over the outer waters
late Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.
Visibilities likely to be reduced in patchy fog tonight.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Saturday
through Sunday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire forecast
area from Friday morning through Friday evening. Any showers
with the cold front tonight will produce generally less than 0.1
inches of rain, and mainly over the north. Breezy and cooler
conditions are expected Friday with northwest wind gusts of 25
to 30 mph expected. Northwest/west winds will gust up to 20 to
25 mph Saturday. Dry conditions are expected across the region
Friday through the weekend. Minimum afternoon relative
humidities Friday should range from 30 to 40 percent, then
around 30 percent Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for MEZ101>103-105-106-108-112>114.
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
for MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Melanson/Norcross
Marine...Melanson/Norcross
Fire Weather...Melanson/Norcross
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
