NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
842
FXUS61 KCAR 190237
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
937 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front crosses the area tonight into Friday. A strong
cold front passes Friday night and Saturday morning, followed by
weak high pressure. Low pressure approaches from the west
Saturday night, passes just to the north, then northeast Sunday,
then exits into the Maritimes Sunday night. High pressure
builds in from the west Monday and Monday night. A warm front
approaches from the southwest Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
*Key Messages:
1) Strong to damaging winds are likely along the coast into
Bangor and Interior Downeast Maine Friday. Additional strong
winds are likely later Friday night to Saturday morning,
particularly north and west of the Katahdin Region.
2) Rain is expected across the entire area Friday along with
significant snowmelt. Poor drainage water ponding is likely.
3)Temperatures fall below freezing Friday night. Northern
areas will see a more rapid freeze closer to when precipitation
ends, leading to icy surfaces Saturday morning.
What Has Changed:
* 930 PM: Temperatures have quickly risen above freezing
throughout the forecast area as southerly warm air advection
advection continues to increase. Forecast temperatures were
raised slightly based on this more rapid warming.
* 730 PM: Wind gusts have begun to increase across the forecast
area. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor
updates made to the aviation discussion and TAFs based on
current observations and trends.
* 2 PM: Wind Advisory issued for areas north and west of the
Katahdin region for the second period of stronger wind gusts
Friday night into Saturday morning.
Discussion:
Tonight to Friday:
A strong storm system continues to move across the central
United States and has produced widespread damaging winds from
the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. The upper level
trough currently over the Great Lakes will become negatively
tilted tonight, leading to a deepening surface low across
central Quebec on Friday. Strong warm advection from a 90kt low
level jet ahead of the associated cold front will bring
temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s and precipitable
water values around 1 inch. This will lead to a period of
moderate to heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and significant
snowmelt across the area Friday. The strongest wind gusts are
expected along the coast, where gusts to around 60 mph are
expected. There is some uncertainty on how far inland the
strongest winds will make it, and there is potential (30 to 40
percent chance) of Bangor seeing a 60mph wind gust. However,
most areas are expected to peak around 50 to 55mph across
Southern Penobscot County and Interior Downeast Maine. Further
north, cold snowpack should enhance low level stability and
limit mixing of the strongest winds to the surface, with lower
peak winds around 40 mph more likely. Rainfall amounts are
expected to range from around a half inch over the western Saint
John Valley where downsloping of south winds will limit QPF, to
around an inch and a half over the Central Highlands and coastal
hills of Interior Downeast Maine where upslope flow with south
winds will enhance rainfall. This rainfall, combined with up to
about an inch of additional liquid from snowmelt across central
and northern areas, could lead to minor flooding of poor
drainage areas. Antecedent drought conditions should limit the
overall impact on rivers.
Friday Night:
A cold front will sweep through the area Friday evening,
decreasing winds briefly as the low level jet pivots east of the
area. A 10 to 15 degree temperature drop is favored, which is
unlikely to immediately freeze things. However, a secondary
front close behind will drop temperatures below freezing shortly
after. Across the north, the period of time between the end of
precipitation and subfreezing temperatures will be short, which
in addition to ongoing snowmelt will cause icy surfaces by
Saturday morning. Further south the impacts of the refreeze will
be more limited. A brief period of snow is also possible across
far northern Maine, which may accumulation a fresh coating of
snow, especially across westerly upslope areas like the North
Woods. The surface low will continue to intensify as it moves
northeast towards Newfoundland, Canada. The strong pressure
gradient combined with colder air aloft steepening low level
lapse rates will result in another period of strong winds,
particularly for areas north and west of Baxter State Park where
a Wind Advisory has been issued. Most areas are expected to see
peak gusts around 45 to 50 mph, except Central Piscataquis
County where gusts to around 55mph are possible. Some higher
terrain locations may see isolated gusts to 60mph. The strongest
winds will occur around 12z Saturday, or slightly thereafter for
northeastern zones. Much of the lower half of the profile will
be near the dendritic growth zone across the north, so while not
explicitly in the forecast currently, numerous flurries are
anticipated and perhaps some snow showers over upslope areas of
the North Woods and Route 11.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main story for Saturday is strong gusty winds continuing in the
morning. Have issued a wind advisory across Northern Aroostook
and Somerset, and Northern and Central Piscatiquis County for
Saturday morning, with gusts 45-50 mph. These gusts are the
result of strong low level cold advection coupled with an 55kt
850 jet. Confidence in winds to advisory level is lower across
southern Piscatiquis and Northern Penobscot, so have kept those
out of the advisory for now. Elsewhere, should see 35-40mph
gusts Saturday morning. Otherwise, have northern stream ridging
building in, which should keep things dry. There should be an
increase in cloud cover late in the day ahead of the next
system. Highs on Saturday should be around normal.
A northern stream shortwave approaches Saturday night, then
crosses the area Sunday ahead of the main northern stream trough
to its west, that is in central Quebec by Sunday evening. The
result should be a period of light snow across the north, light
rain across coastal Downeast, and snow changing to rain
elsewhere. The precipitation should mainly start around/after
midnight - depending on exactly how fast the northern stream
ridging ahead of the shortwave exits to the east. Snow
accumulations across the North should range mainly from 1-3" and
up to an inch in the area transitioning from snow to rain. Lows
Saturday night should be around 5-10 degrees above normal. For
highs on Sunday, blended in the NBM25th percentile with the NBM
to reflect that with a morning frontal passage, the NBM often is
too warm on highs. As a result, am forecasting highs around 5
degrees above normal for Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A northern stream trough passes Sunday night, with some
additional light snow possible mainly over eastern Aroostook.
Northern stream shortwave ridging passes on Monday, followed by
northern stream ridging building in from Monday night into
Tuesday. Associated subsidence should keep things dry, until
possibly late in the day on Tuesday, depending on exactly how
fast the ridge axis exits to the east.
A developing northern stream trough moves into southeastern
Quebec Tuesday night, then pushes south/east into the western
Maritimes by Wednesday evening. The models differ on their
timing with the precipitation with this system - but it appears
there could be a period of snow across all of Northern and
Eastern Maine from late Tuesday possibly into Wednesday. At this
time, there is too much uncertainty on the exact timing,
strength and track of this system to specify any snow amounts or
potential impacts from this system.
Northern stream ridging builds in Wednesday night, so it should
be dry.
Models then differ on how quickly this ridging exits on
Thursday, with slower progress of this ridge keeping Thursday
dry, but faster progression allowing a northern stream shortwave
to approach and bring another round of snow to the region by
late in the day. For now leaned more toward the slower solution,
with pops limited to slight chance to chance.
Temperatures should be near normal Sunday night, then below
normal Monday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight:
VFR this evening, becoming MVFR then quickly IFR at all
terminals, from south to north by 6-8z. S winds around 10 kts
gusting to 20 kts, increasing to around 15 kts with gusts to
25-30 kts. LLWS 35 to 45 kts, strongest for northern terminals.
Friday: IFR/LIFR with RA, areas of FG, and strong LLWS at all
terminals. S winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts at northern
terminals. S winds 20-30 kts with gusts to 45-50 kts at southern
terminals.
Friday Night: IFR/LIFR in the evening gives way to VFR. Winds
decrease initially in the early evening, then shift W and
increase to 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 35-40 kts later during
the evening and overnight.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday...VFR, except for possible MVFR early at northern
terminals. NW winds G25-40KT in the morning, WNW-W winds
G15-20KT in the afternoon.
Saturday night...MVFR or lower probable after midnight. SW-S
winds G15-20KT possible. LLWS possible.
Sunday...MVFR or lower in the morning, probably becoming MVFR
north and VFR south in the afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT
possible.
Sunday night...MVFR north and VFR south. WNW-NW winds G20-30KT
probable.
Monday-Monday night...Becoming VFR throughout during the day.
NW winds G15-30KT possible during the day.
Tuesday...VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in the
afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas initially below advisory levels
quickly ramp up to Gales by around midnight with Storm
conditions developing Friday morning. A Storm Warning is in
effect for all of the waters from 13z Friday through Friday
evening. Wave heights of 16 to 21 feet are expected. Winds
decrease to a strong Gale Friday night into Saturday morning.
SHORT TERM: Gale conditions are expected on the waters
Saturday morning, then are probable on the coastal ocean waters
and possible on the intra-coastal waters Saturday
afternoon/evening. Gales become probable again on the waters
late Saturday night and could continue then into Monday night. A
period of sub-SCA conditions is then probable on Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM EST Saturday
for MEZ001>004-010.
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ015>017.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES/MWS
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...AES/MWS/PM
Marine...AES/MWS/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
