NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
465
FXUS61 KCAR 140651
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
151 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The track of low pressure lifting north across the area on
Thursday has trended further west. This places most of our region
on the warm eastern side of the storm which favors rain in most
areas on Thursday.
* Significant differences in ensemble guidance for the Saturday
night into Sunday timeframe. Significantly lowered
precipitation probabilities.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low pressure approaching Wednesday night and tracking up along
our western border on Thursday will bring some snow to northwestern
areas and rain and fog elsewhere late Wednesday night into Thursday.
2) Modified arctic air will press into the area Thursday night
into Friday bringing abruptly colder temperatures and causing
any water and slush to freeze into ice. Moisture on roads
combined with light snow may make travel very icy.
3) Active weather pattern from this weekend into next week but
significant uncertainty on system tracks and precipitation
types.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure approaching Wednesday night and
tracking up along our western border on Thursday will bring some
snow to northwestern areas and rain and fog elsewhere late Wednesday
night into Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will develop over New York State Wednesday night in
response to a trough of low pressure digging into the Great Lakes.
This low will track north along the edge of an approaching cold
front Wednesday night tracking across Western New England by early
Thursday morning then north along our western border on Thursday.
This places us on the warm side of the storm. Some snow may spread
into northwestern areas Wednesday night with rain elsewhere. The
rain will continue into Thursday with some snow hanging on over far
northwestern areas. The relatively warmer and moist air over snow
covered ground will result in some fog Wednesday night into
Thursday. Rain amounts will generally range from around a quarter
inch Downeast to a half inch over the far north with snow amounts
from 3 to 4 inches over the far northwest to a half inch over the
northeast and none across the south.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Modified arctic air will press into the area
Thursday night into Friday bringing abruptly colder temperatures
and causing any water and slush to freeze into ice. Moisture on
roads combined with light snow may make travel very icy.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Challenging forecast on tap for Thursday night into Friday as a
strong cold front slides southeast through the CWA. FROPA is
expected Thursday evening and much of the guidance remains on
track clearing the front in the CWA by 00-03z Thursday evening.
Strong 500mb shortwave energy will remain hanging back over
Vermont in the evening with a weak surface trof sliding
southeast into the state. Air temperatures will be crashing
behind the front with conditions becoming slippery as any melt
and water on untreated surfaces becoming icy. Uncertainty exists
on the potential of snowfall and how widespread it may be which
has implications to make things even more slippery.
Given the position of the 500mb potent shortwave to our west,
increased upper level divergence will exist over much of
Northern Maine and increased surface convergence with moisture
leftover. This leads to strong confidence in expecting some
light snow in northern areas. Increasing confidence in 1-2
inches of fluffy snow in Northern Maine especially from Baxter
Region northward. This will increase the likelihood of slippery
travel conditions overnight into the early Friday AM commute.
Air temperatures will fall to around 5-10F north by daybreak and
10-15F for the Central Highlands and Bangor Region with 15-20F
along the coast. Outside of the light snow expect some snow
showers.
Cold temperatures and snow showers extend into Friday with air
temperatures struggling unlikely to gain much more than 1-3
degrees with the diurnal swing. Highs topping out in the low to
mid teens north and Moosehead Region, upper teens to low 20s for
the Central Highlands southward to Downeast coast. Westerly
winds 10-20mph will result in single digits below zero wind
chills north and single digits above zero south. Lastly, patchy
blowing snow is possible in northern areas thanks to any light
fluffy snow that falls.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Active weather pattern from this weekend into
next week but significant uncertainty on system tracks and
precipitation types.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Global ensembles continue to show signs of the near neutral AO
shifting negative into the weekend then next week. This combined
with the much of the ensembles showing positive PNA as a strong
ridge builds across the Northwestern United States resulting in
500mb trofing in the east. NAO looks to remain neutral generally
less than +0.5SD and this will allow for systems to develop
along a stronger northern jet diving around the long wave
trofing. The uncertainty in near neutral NAO is how developed
can a system be or if we are more +NAO leading to faster more
zonal jet stream winds. It is this uncertainty that has led to
significant changes with any potential system this weekend. Have
lowered POPs significantly Saturday into Sunday with very few
members of the GFS, ECMWF or Canadian producing an organized low
pressure system. However, given the increased confidence in long
wave trofing means any precipitation is more likely to be snow
than rain with cooler temperatures. Models are struggling with
how to handle jet streak coming around the long wave trof into
next week. There is the potential to develop some type of a
coastal system but significant differences exist with the GFS,
Canadian and ECMWF ensembles placing lows in many locations with
many completely missing us or just grazing the CWA. Will need to
monitor the trends but a trend towards colder temperatures is
likely with the increasingly negative AO pattern setting up.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR to IFR conditions across the north and VFR to MVFR conditions
over the south are expected today. South winds. Conditions will
lower to IFR tonight, possibly becoming LIFR across the area by
Thursday morning. South winds with some SSW LLWS at 2K ft late
tonight into Thursday. LIFR on Thursday improving to IFR, and
possibly MVFR over the south late Thursday. Light and variable winds
becoming W over the north and SW over the south late.
Friday...intially MVFR/IFR with -SN at northern terms, VFR
south. Expecting VCSH/-SHSN but mainly trending to VFR
conditions. Cannot rule out SCT MVFR cigs at northern terms. W
winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. DRSN possible at northern
terms for the afternoon hours.
Fri Night...BKN VFR cigs all terms. Winds shifting S 5-10kt.
Saturday...BKN VFR cigs. SW winds 5-15kt.
Sat Night...VFR/MVFR cigs. Possible IFR vsby. -SN possible but
confidence is low. Winds light and variable.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR cigs. Possible IFR vsby. -SN possible but
confidence is low. Winds W-SW 5-10kt.
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA will be up today into this evening for S winds gusting up to
30 kt. Winds will drop below SCA tonight then increase back to SCA
on Thursday with SW winds gusting up to 30 kt. Seas up to 9 ft today
subsiding to 5 ft tonight then up to 8 ft Thursday. Moist air over
the waters may result in some fog or mist tonight into Thursday.
Thursday night into Friday westerly winds at SCA conditions
expected across the waters with gusts up to 30kt. Cannot rule
out some gusts up to 35kt and potential for Gale Conditions
especially from 15 to 25nm offshore. Seas during this time 3-5ft
for the Intra-Coastal Waters and 5-9ft for the Coastal Waters.
Light freezing spray is expected on all the waters late Thursday
night into Friday evening.
Winds shift SW late Friday afternoon and remain at SCA levels
through Saturday. Seas remain similar at 3-5ft for the Intra-
Coastal Waters and 5-9ft for the Coastal Waters. Winds will
relax to 20kt gusts into Sunday but seas remain at SCA criteria
especially on the Coastal Waters. Potential for rain to reduce
vsby at times Saturday into Sunday.
Significant uncertainty in the forecast exists into early next
week with the potential of a storm system near the Gulf of Maine
that may produce another round of SCAs or potential Gales.
Sea surface water temperatures range from 38-42F from the
Downeast Coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
MARINE...MB/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
