NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
507
FXUS61 KCAR 231102
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
602 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Blizzard warning issued for interior Hancock and central
Washington counties.
- Snow totals reduced due to a slight eastward trend in the most
recent model guidance.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant winter storm is expected today into tonight
with heavy snow and widespread blowing snow. Blizzard conditions
likely Downeast this afternoon into early evening.
2) Clipper system on Wednesday to bring several inches of snow to
the region impacting the Wednesday afternoon commute.
3) Heavy convective snow showers over the north Thursday afternoon,
likely to reduce visibility.
4) Another winter storm possible toward the end of the week with
rain and snow impacting travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant winter storm is expected today
into tonight with heavy snow and widespread blowing snow.
Blizzard conditions likely Downeast this afternoon into early
evening.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A strong, high-end Nor`easter will pass through the southern
Gulf of Maine today as it tracks northeast towards Nova Scotia.
Strong, northeast winds and heavy snow are expected with
blizzard conditions across Downeast Maine and near blizzard in
the Bangor region.
Snow begins late morning Downeast and spreads north, reaching
the crown of Maine by the evening. Expect the highest totals in
Downeast Maine, especially in south-central Washington county,
where 12 inches of snow could fall. Progressively lower snow
totals further north with only a couple inches at most expected
in far northern Maine. Due to a slight eastward shift in the
most recent model guidance, have reduced snow totals slightly.
The heaviest snowfall will be this afternoon and early evening
where rates may reach exceed 1 inch per hour Downeast. Much
lighter snow over northern Maine. Snow becomes lighter
throughout tonight and eventually tapers off Tuesday morning. A
few snow showers may linger over the north through Tuesday
afternoon.
Blowing snow remains a significant concern as despite the slight
east shift in the expected track strong winds aloft are
expected to easily mix down to the surface resulting in gusts up
to 60 mph along the coast and 50 mph over interior Downeast and
the Bangor region. Widespread blowing snow in the Downeast and
Bangor regions will create whiteouts reducing visibility to 1/4
mile or less. Winds will be progressively lighter further north
but areas of blowing snow are still expected with more localized
whiteouts possible. Avoid traveling if at all possible as roads
will be extremely dangerous. The worst period of blowing snow is
expected this afternoon into the early evening with a decreasing
threat overnight as winds gradually weaken. Not expecting major
power outage concerns but some falling tree limbs could create
some scattered outages.
The decision to expand the blizzard warning is due to increased
confidence in strong winds over the interior Downeast region
which will easily blow around snow and create whiteout
conditions. Still expecting the worst conditions along the coast
with near blizzard conditions in the Bangor region.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Clipper system on Wednesday to bring several
inches of snow to the region impacting the Wednesday afternoon
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Weak clipper system (technically a Saskatchewan Screamer with its
origins in Saskatchewan) will be approaching the region on Wednesday
with light snow moving in by mid-morning Wednesday. Weak triple
point developing over the mid-coast in the afternoon will enhance
lift along the coast. The heaviest snow looks to fall Wednesday
afternoon at the coast with between 1-3 inches. This will likely
impact the afternoon commute. By the time the snow moves east,
between 2-4 inches likely to have fallen on the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Heavy convective snow showers over the north
Thursday afternoon, likely to reduce visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Upper trof moving across the north Thursday afternoon will
continue the chance for scattered snow showers. With instability and
steep low-mid level lapse rates expected acrs northern Aroostook
County cannot rule out locally heavy convective snow showers. This
may result in quick reductions in visibilities during the afternoon
commute.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Another winter storm possible toward the end of
the week with rain and snow impacting travel.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Fast moving system looks to affect the area toward the end of the
week. 00z CMC is trending north and more in line with the GFS while
the 00z EC keeps a more southerly track. Approximately one-half of
the GFS ensemble members have system along the coast, albeit at
different times with < one-half of the CMC ensemble members
indicating a system along the coast. EC ensemble members even less
than the CMC so solutions are wildly different and remain up in the
air. Based on the latest forecast the Friday morning commute may be
impacted over Downeast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Today through tonight...
Southern terminals - MVFR cigs. Snow begins late morning.
Visibility will begin to deteriorate around noon or just before
in snow. Heavy snow and widespread blowing snow will reduce
visibilities to a half mile or less this afternoon and evening
resulting in LIFR conditions. Have the greatest confidence in
1/4 mile visibility at BHB so included it in TAF but BGR is
likely to see some periods of 1/4 mile visibility. Conditions
gradually improve to MVFR and possibly VFR late tonight as snow
tapers off but blowing snow is likely to persist. Winds from
the northeast 15-25 kts with gusts around 40 kts for BGR, 20-30
kts with gusts up to 45 kts for BHB peaking early evening.
Possible LLWS this afternoon and evening, but surface winds
will also be strong so decided not to put LLWS in TAFs.
Northern terminals - MVFR cigs. IFR this afternoon and evening
in snow. Visibilities generally around a mile but could
occasionally drop to LIFR in blowing snow. Greatest chance of
LIFR at HUL. Conditions gradually improve to MVFR overnight as
snow tapers off. Winds about 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.
Tuesday...Possible MVFR north, VFR south. NW wind 10-15 kts with
gusts 25 kts. Some lingering blowing snow possible with a chance
of snow showers north.
Tuesday night...Becoming VFR all terminals. WNW 5-10kts.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR moving during the afternoon in
snow. May see rain/snow mix at BHB during the day. SSE 5-10kts,
becoming SW 5kts late Wednesday night.
Thursday...Improving to VFR Downeast early, with MVFR/IFR in locally
heavy snow showers Aroostook terminals during the afternoon. W 5-
10kts, gusts to 15kts.
Thursday night-Friday...Brief VFR before possibly dropping to
MVFR/IFR late Thursday night with snow north and wintry mix south,
continuing thru Friday. W 5kts, becoming variable overnight, and WNW
Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
High confidence in storm force NE winds Monday/Monday evening.
Seas build to around 13-17 ft. Conditions gradually improve
during the day Tuesday with NW winds down to small craft levels
in the afternoon.
Seas likely to be elevated around SCA levels over the outer waters
Tuesday evening, before dropping below overnight. Southerly winds
increase to SCA levels Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning
ahead of weak coastal low. Seas increase above 5ft Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening in southerly swell. A stronger wave system
moves in Friday morning with seas climbing above 11 ft over the
outer waters with 10 sec periods.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MEZ005-006-011-031.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for MEZ015-032.
Blizzard Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday
for MEZ016-017.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
