NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
410
FXUS61 KCAR 171914 CCA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
314 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased confidence that the system for Thursday night/Friday
should have at most minor impacts.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong wind gusts will continue this afternoon, with the
strongest gusts across far northern Maine. A few additional
power outages are possible.
2) Wind chills ranging from 5 to 15 below zero are expected
tonight into Wednesday morning across northern Maine. Frostbite
on exposed skin can occur in as little as 30 to 60 minutes in
these conditions.
3) A series of weak systems are expected to pass near Maine
from Thursday night through Monday. These could bring some
light to possibly moderate snow to the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong wind gusts will continue this afternoon, with the
strongest gusts across far northern Maine. A few additional
power outages are possible.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Surface low pressure across central Quebec will continue to
deepen to around 950mb late this afternoon. Northern Maine will
be post-frontal with rapidly rising pressures and a steep
pressure gradient in place. Forecast soundings generally show
steepening low level lapse rates with mixing towards 850mb,
where winds are 40-45 kt. Boundary layer average winds around
35 to 40kt will yield frequent gusts in excess of 40mph and
occasional gusts to near 50mph. A few additional power outages
and instances of tree damage remain possible. Winds will remain
elevated overnight, but the strongest gusts to advisory criteria
are expected to end around sunset.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Wind chills ranging from 5 to 15 below zero are
expected tonight into Wednesday morning across northern Maine.
Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 30 to 60
minutes in these conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Winds will remain elevated overnight with gusts to around 25 to
30mph. Strong cold air advection will continue with air
temperatures falling into the single digits above zero across
northern Maine. The combination of air temperatures and winds
will produce wind chills around 15 below zero in the North
Woods, 5 to 10 below zero elsewhere across northern Maine, and
around zero to 5 above zero for Bangor and Downeast Maine. While
these wind chills will not reach advisory criteria, values this
cold can still produce frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 30 to 60 minutes. Patchy icy spots are also possible as any
standing water from earlier rainfall freezes.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A series of weak systems are expected to pass
near Maine from Thursday night through Monday. These could
bring some light to possibly moderate snow to the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The first of these systems looks like the weakest of them, as
a clipper type system brings its associated cold front through
the region from late Thursday night through early Friday
afternoon. The models differ on how much, if any measurable
precipitation we get out of this system. With the core of the
upper level forcing and the surface low passing to the north,
expect the precipitation to be more showery in nature than
anything else, with accumulations generally around an inch or
less, with highest amounts across the St Johns Valley.
The models are in less agreement over the timing/track of the
next clipper like system with some guidance bringing it through
as early as late Friday/early Saturday, others during the day on
Saturday and still others which bring the upper system through
dry. For now running with slight chance to chance pops for snow
showers across the north and rain/snow showers elsewhere.
There is growing consensus that the third system will be the
strongest of the three. Once again, there are differences on
track, timing and strength. The general consensus is for a
northern stream shortwave trough to approach Saturday night and
cross on Sunday, with its surface low passing near Northern
Maine. This should result in overrunning snow Saturday night
Across the North and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. The coast should
change to all rain early Sunday, with the rain/snow mix moving
northward during the day on Sunday to all but the North Woods and
Northeast Aroostook, which should stay as all snow. The
precipitation should then change back to all snow as it tapers off
Sunday night. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how
far north the rain/snow line gets, and also how much, if any, of
the cwa goes to all rain. At this time, there is the potential for
up to a moderate snowfall across at least portions of the North
before any change over/mixing with rain occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today...VFR. A period of MVFR is possible at northern terminals
in low ceilings this evening, most likely at FVE. WSW winds 10
to 15 kts with gusts 25-30 kts for southern terminals, and 15 to
20 kts with gusts to 30-40kts for northern terminals.
Tonight...VFR. MVFR possible early at northern terminals.
WSW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots.
Wednesday...VFR. WNW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts,
decreasing in the afternoon.
Wednesday night...VFR. Light SE winds increasing to around 10 kts.
Thursday...VFR. SE winds G15KT possible.
Thursday night-Friday...MVFR or lower possible, especially in
the north. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.
Friday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible at
southern terminals.
Saturday night-Sunday...IFR or lower possible. WNW winds
G15-20KT possible late Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for all coastal waters through
6z tonight. Winds decrease after midnight, falling to advisory
levels over all waters around 6z. Winds decrease below advisory
levels Wednesday morning, but seas will remain at advisory
criteria into Wednesday evening. Both winds and seas are
forecast to be below advisory criteria later Wednesday night
through Thursday. Light freezing spray is expected late tonight
into Wednesday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Thursday and
Thursday night. SCA conditions should return to the coastal
ocean waters Friday and the intra-coastal waters Friday night
and then remain at a minimum at SCA level through Sunday. There
is also a chance for gales on the waters from Saturday night
through late Sunday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001-002.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PM/MWS
AVIATION...PM/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
