NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
591
FXUS61 KCAR 150737
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
237 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Areas of black ice this morning causing slippery travel
conditions in Northern Maine.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain with fog today (Wintry mix in North Woods and Allagash
Region) will result in reduced visibilities at times. Cold
surfaces despite the warm temperatures will allow for black ice
making travel potentially difficult.
2) Flash freeze likely tonight into Friday morning from NW to
SE, with possibly 1-3 inches of snow on top of that across the
North. A rapid fall off of temperatures will cause rapid freeze
of slush and wet surfaces into ice. This will make for
difficult travel for any untreated surfaces, especially those
covered by any snowfall across the North.
3) Low potential for a winter storm Sunday night into Monday, but
continued significant uncertainty regarding storm track and
evolution.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain with fog today (Wintry mix in North Woods and Allagash
Region) will result in reduced visibilities at times. Cold
surfaces despite the warm temperatures will allow for black ice
making travel potentially difficult.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A mid level warm front is lifting north this morning with
temperatures above freezing in most locations above 32F. Except
31-32F currently exists in Oxbow to Ripogenus Dam to Pittston
Farm and points northward to include Nine Mile, Allagash and
Estcourt Station. It is out here in the North Woods and western
St. John Valley where rain and snow will mix and potential
exists for a period of wet snow this morning with accumulations.
This is mostly existing in areas with dirt/gravel roads and
very little paved roads except in the St. John Valley between
Fort Kent and Allagash where conditions may become slick this
morning. Elsewhere light rain is falling across much of the
Central Highlands to Eastern Aroostook County including the
Baxter Region. Although air temperatures are above freezing the
ground is frozen 8-16 inches deep in much of the Northern 2/3rd
of the CWA. Latest observations from MaineDOT RWIS show road
temperatures 32-33F which is allowing for black ice to develop
given the light precipitation rates. Have issued an SPS that
covers all of Northern Maine, Moosehead Region, Upper Penobscot
Valley, Central Highlands and Northern Washington County.
Expecting to update this for the AM commute where patchy to
areas of black ice may continue to be a problem this morning.
Today the surface low will track NE along the Maine/Quebec
border as the 500mb shortwave approaches from the west.
Expecting precipitation to taper this afternoon from SW to NE
across the area as dry air aloft works into the region. However,
rain and fog beforehand expected to create some reduced
visibilities for several hours this morning. Much of the
snowpack will absorb the rainfall with very little run off.
Across the North Woods where snow will be falling expecting 2-4
inches of wet snow with isolated amounts to 5 inches possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Flash freeze likely tonight into Friday morning from NW to SE,
with possibly 1-3 inches of snow on top of that across the
North. A rapid fall off of temperatures will cause rapid freeze
of slush and wet surfaces into ice. This will make for difficult
travel for any untreated surfaces, especially those covered by
any snowfall across the North.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
As surface low pressure tracks into Northern Maine this evening
expecting a surface cold front to be dragged across the state.
Temperatures will rapidly fall with FROPA at rates of 2-3
degrees per hour possible. The concern tonight is with very
light winds very little drying will occur and a lot of surfaces
will have had the salt residue wash away. The potential for a
flash freeze is high and untreated surfaces, given the frozen
grounds, will rapidly freeze and form black ice. Timeframe for
flash freeze is 5-7PM across far Northern Maine in the St. John
Valley, 8-11PM for Moosehead Region to Baxter Region to
Eastern Aroostook County, 11PM-2AM for I-95 corridor to
Interior Downeast Maine and then 1AM-4AM for Coastal Downeast
Maine. Temperatures will fall back into the mid to upper teens
north by daybreak and 20-25F range for Bangor to Downeast coast.
Additionally, across Northern Maine what may make travel
hazardous tonight with the flash freeze is light snow. Surface
low pressure will track into Northern Maine this evening into
the overnight hours. The potent 500mb trof will be back to the
west allowing for an area of upper level divergence aloft which
will enhance surface lift. As the column cools rapidly and the
DGZ improves rapidly expecting very good snowflake production
and light snow will intially be wet snow but quickly become
fluffy snow. Snow will taper to snow showers Friday morning. An
additional 0.5-2 inch of snow is expected overnight which
falling on icy surfaces may make travel difficult in spots and
make for a slippery Friday AM commute in Northern Maine. This is
expected to be mainly confined from the Moosehead Region to
Baxter SP Region northward to the St. John Valley. Any fluffy
snow with increasing westerly winds may lead to patchy
blowing/drifting snow late tonight into Friday in Northern
Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low potential for a winter storm Sunday night into Monday, but
continued significant uncertainty regarding storm track and
evolution.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will lift northeast across the western atlantic and
toward the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night into Monday. Still plenty
of uncertainty amongst the various model guidance with regard to the
track of this system. Thus, any potential impacts to the forecast
area remain highly uncertain at this point in time. There is a much
higher degree of certainty that a turn to much colder temperatures
can be expected by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Today...IFR/LIFR cigs. -RA or BR/VCSH reducing vsby. Winds light
and variable.
Tonight...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR/IFR except LIFR possible north
due to -SN overnight. VCSH at other terms with the potential of
just -RASH becoming -SNSH. Light and variable winds becoming
W-SW with FROPA.
Friday...VFR south, MVFR north. -SNSH north. W winds 10-15kt
with gusts 20-25kt.
Fri Night...VFR. W wind becoming S around 5 kt.
Sat through Sat night...VFR early, then MVFR possible at times
-SN.
Sun through Mon...MVFR or lower possible in snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas below SCA conditions this morning through midday
today. Rain and fog may reduce vsby at times. Seas generally
2-4ft. This afternoon SW winds will increase with gusts up to
25kt and seas building 3-5ft. This evening winds gusting up to
30kt with seas 4-8ft. Overnight Gale Watch is up for wind gusts
35-40kt and seas 5-9ft. Expecting westerly gales to last through
Friday afternoon before relaxing back to SCA conditions. Light
freezing spray is possible tonight into Friday with rapidly
cooling air temperatures. Sea surface water temperatures range
from 38-42F from the Downeast Coast out 25nm and east to the
Hague Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.
Small Craft Advisory level conditions are expected through the
weekend and into early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWD/JS
AVIATION...TWD/JS
MARINE...TWD/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
