NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
964
FXUS61 KCAR 060023
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
823 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit south of the Maritimes tonight. A cold
front will begin to slowly cross the region later Sunday. The
cold front will approach the Downeast coast Monday through
Monday night, cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday through Tuesday
night, then dissipate mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
8:20 PM Update...Issued a Beach Hazards Statement for Sunday
for Coastal Downeast due to warm air temperatures versus cold
water temperatures. Otherwise, radar returns beginning to
approach the North Woods from Quebec. Will continue to monitor
to see if PoPs need to be extended southward. Updated Aviation
section to reflect 00z TAFs.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure will exit south of the Maritimes tonight. With the
developing return flow, a warm front will cross the region
overnight. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will
cross mostly northern areas tonight. Expect partly/mostly cloudy
skies Downeast tonight. A slow moving cold front will begin to
approach northern Maine later Sunday. Precipitable water values
will increase to around 2.0 inches across the region Sunday
afternoon. A mid level jet and vort max will also cross the
region Sunday afternoon. These factors, along with diurnal
heating, will support shower/thunderstorm development across
the region Sunday afternoon. Expect the most numerous showers
and thunderstorms across central and northern areas. Strong, to
possibly severe, thunderstorms will occur with strong winds the
primary threat. However, large hail is also possible with any
more organized storms. With high precipitable water values and a
slow moving cold front, training thunderstorms could also pose
a flash flood threat. The flash flood threat is also greatest
across northern and central portions of the forecast area. The
cold front will begin to slowly settle south across the forecast
area Sunday night, though how rapidly this occurs is still
uncertain. Thunderstorm intensity will begin to diminish Sunday
evening. However, showers/thunderstorms will move south across
the forecast area overnight with the cold front. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 60 to the lower 60s
across the forecast area. High temperatures Sunday will range
from the lower to mid 80s north, to the upper 80s to around 90
across central and interior Downeast areas. Apparent
temperatures across portions of the central and interior
Downeast regions of the forecast area could approach Heat
Advisory levels Sunday afternoon. High temperatures along the
Downeast coast will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 50s to around
60 north, to around 60 to the mid 60s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Challenging forecast Monday through Tuesday. A very slow moving
cold front will be drifting south through the area, with showers
along and behind the front and storms near the front itself and
just ahead. The problem is some differing timing among models
for the front. The GEFS ensemble has been the fastest, EPS
slowest, and GEPS in between. Latest 12z GEFS has slowed down a
bit though and is closer to GEPS.
Monday...General consensus is for the front during the day
Monday to be nearly stalled somewhere between Bangor and
Houlton, with showers and storms most abundant in this portion
of the area, but again, there is about 100 miles north/south
uncertainty with the frontal position. Wherever the front sets
up, there could be fairly heavy rain. Not expecting any
significant flooding, but can`t rule out localized issues.
Temperatures Monday are very uncertain due to frontal position
uncertainty. Very warm and muggy south of the front and
relatively cool north of the front. Can`t rule out some stronger
storms Monday along/just ahead of the front where convection is
surface-based, but behind the front, any convection will not be
surface-based thanks to stable low-level air, and don`t expect
anything strong there.
Monday Night...Some of the convection could die off a bit
Monday evening, but the 40-60 PoPs remain through the night
wherever the front is positioned, most likely in central/south-
central portions of the area.
Tuesday...The uncertainty in frontal position continues. Most
models shift the front south some to Downeast somewhere roughly
along the coast. This would put Downeast in a favorable position
for showers/storms, and went with PoPs around 60 percent in
this area. Drier the further north you go, but again, still a
lot of uncertainty.
Targets of Opportunity...For thunder chances Monday to Tuesday,
shifted NBM`s PotThunder south some, as it seemed to be having
thunder chances way north of the consensus frontal position. For
precipitation during the day Monday, shifted NBM`s QPF north
some to better align with its PoPs.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Toward Tuesday night, most models push the front just enough
offshore to begin to dry out Downeast. However, if the front
hangs back some, which some models, particularly some ECMWF
ensemble members show, Downeast could still be under the gun for
some heavier rain. Of concern is that remnants of Chantal and
associated moisture could be entrained into the front around
this time. Hopefully, this will occur over the Gulf of Maine and
not over Downeast Maine, but will need to keep a close eye.
For the Wednesday through Saturday period, looking relatively
quiet with a chance of showers and storms, mainly in the
afternoon hours, each day. Temperatures fairly close to average
and slightly muggy, but not oppressive.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR at all terminals tonight. Periods of MVFR
possible at Aroostook Terminals (mainly PQI northward) late with -SHRA.
PROB30 for -TSRA from PQI northward 06-10z. LLWS expected HUL
northward late tonight into early Sunday AM. SW winds 5-10 kts
tonight.
Mainly VFR Sunday AM. Variable conditions Sunday PM, especially
GNR northward with VCTS. Any TSRA could be strong, to possibly
severe, with strong winds and heavy rains the main threat.
Isolated TS possible Sunday PM at BGR, but not enough confidence
to include in 00z TAFs. SW winds 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20kts
Sunday, except higher gusts in any TS.
Variable conditions are then expected regionwide Sunday night
with SHRA and isolated TS. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday
night.
SHORT TERM:
Monday and Monday Night...Mix of MVFR/VFR, with IFR possible
immediate coast. Showers and storms possible. Variable wind less
than 10 kts.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Mainly VFR north, with mix of MVFR/VFR
Downeast. N wind less than 10 kts.
Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR with variable winds less
than 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for much
of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,
for Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday
night. Areas of fog Sunday night.
SHORT TERM: Small craft level seas early Monday gradually lower
through midweek. SW winds around 15 kts become variable 10 kts
or less toward midweek. Fog likely over the waters Monday to
early Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Clark/Norcross
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Clark/Norcross/Foisy
Marine...Clark/Norcross/Foisy
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
