NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
168
FXUS61 KCAR 011945
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
245 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight and quickly pushes east on
Tuesday morning. A coastal low approaches from the southwest
Tuesday afternoon, passes offshore Tuesday night, then exits
into the southern Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. An Arctic
cold front crosses the region on Thursday with high pressure
building in for Friday. Another cold front approaches from the
northwest on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Noreaster Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring heavy snowfall to
Downeast and Bangor
Gusty northwest winds will continue this evening. 1030mb sfc high
over NY State will build east toward the region this evening with
winds decreasing. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight before
mid-high clouds move in fm the west. Min temps drop into the single
digits across the north.
Surface low developing over the northern Gulf as seen on vis imagery
as of 19z. S/wv will help deepen low over the southeastern U.S.
tonight. By mid-late morning on Tuesday sfc low will eject off of
the mid-Atlantic coast and head northeast twd the Gulf of Maine.
Snow should move into the CWA around 14z Tuesday. The coastal front
will set up late morning/early afternoon leading to mixing with
and/or changing to rain along the coast and over the outer islands.
Surface temps will rise into the mid-upr 30s in the afternoon along
the coast. Inland locations will remain below freezing during the
day.
As the coastal low heads northeast toward the Gulf of Maine
precipitation overspreads all but far nwrn areas as dry ridge axis
remains close to the international border. As precip gets heavier
along the coast, evaporational cooling will likely result in snow
Tuesday night. The highest snowfall rates will likely be around
midnight. SLRs look to be fairly low over Downeast but will likely
increase toward morning. This may result in isolated power outages
initially but as the pressure gradient tightens, winds increase with
gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. Cannot rule out blowing and/or drifting
snow late Tuesday night over southern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
-Cool and Dry Clean Up Day Wednesday
-Thursday Arctic Cold Front with Snow Squalls
For Wednesday, brief and weak surface ridging should clear out
skies and decrease winds. Temps should be in the 20s for
northern areas and low 30s south for a good clean up day after
the snowstorm. For Wednesday night, a cold front will approach
the region from Quebec, increasing clouds and shifting winds
from the south. Temps should be in the teens for much of the
region with low 20s from Bangor to the shoreline.
For Thursday an arctic cold front will push through the state.
Much of the operational and ensemble guidance have a decent
handle on timing. Looking at 9-11am timeframe across the NW
zones and a Noon-4pm timeframe for SE zones. The concern with
this system is the increasing instability along the front.
Latest trend in model soundings show enough SBCAPE and elevated
CAPE, lapse rates, and negative Theta E to justify snow squalls
developing in the afternoon. The question will be if strong
enough winds will mix down throughout the day. All the
ingredients are there showing modeled BTV snow squall parameters
of 2-4 across the region. The winds will determine if short
fused SPSs or SQWs will be needed. Temperatures prior to FROPA
will be up into the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s south.
Messaging will be for potential slick travel and quick
visibility drops with snow showers and squalls.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages
-Very Cold Temps Thurs night with wind chills -20F to -15F
-Sunny and Cold Friday
Thursday night high pressure will slide south of Maine as low
pressure deepens in the Maritimes. Pressure gradient will
tighten and then the NW cold air advection will push a large
area of -19C to -21C 925mb temps into the area. Surface
air temperatures will crash to mainly below zero across the
north in the -5F to 0F range. This will be the coldest night so
far this season. Temperatures around 0F for the Central
Highlands to Bangor Region eastward to Calais area. Generally
5-9F along the Downeast coast and 10-15F on the islands. NW
winds will be gusting 15-25mph and some gusts up to 35mph across
the higher terrain. This will result in wind chills dropping to
around -20F across the North with some places potentially
reaching Cold Weather Advisory levels.
Friday will be sunny and cold. -20C to -18C 925mb temps combined
with snowpack across much of the CWA will result in cold surface
high temps. Highs topping out in the upper single digits to
teens across the north, upper teens in the Central Highlands and
20-25F for the Bangor region to Downeast coast. Wind chills
across Northern areas will be at zero or slightly below zero but
winds will gradually weaken during the day as the pressure
gradient weakens.
Beyond for the weekend into Monday the models lose any consistency
with another storm possible this weekend. Expect seasonably cool
temperatures but warmer than Friday will be.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this evening, though northern terminals may see
brief MVFR cigs or -shsn for the first hour or two of the TAF
period. MVFR looks to move in 14z Tuesday with light snow.
Conditions then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR Tuesday night. North
winds will gust to 20-25kts late Tuesday night, leading to
blowing snow.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday...VFR south, MVFR cigs possible north.
NW Winds 5-10kt becoming light and variable late day.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR cigs. Brief IFR/LIFR vsby possible due to
SNSH in the midday to afternoon hours. SW winds 5-15kt shifting
W late afternoon and increasing winds.
Thursday night...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. VCSH/-SHSN for
northern terms. W-NW winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt possible.
Friday...VFR. W-NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt early becoming
W-WSW 5-15kt in the afternoon.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR cigs, low end chance of IFR. Chance of
snow. S winds 5-10kt.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gales will continue for the next hour or two before
diminishing to small craft levels over the waters this evening.
Wind and seas remain below sca levels on Tuesday before
approaching gales once again late Tuesday night.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday winds will fall below SCA criteria by
midday but waves will remain 5-7ft into the evening hours. W-SW
winds will increase to SCA conditions overnight into Thursday
AM. Winds will shift W Thursday afternoon and Gales are expected
again. Winds will shift NW Thursday night and potentially
gusting 45-46kt over the outer portions of the coastal waters.
Low end probability of storm conditions, will need to monitor
trends. Winds/seas will fall below SCA criteria Friday night.
Will need to monitor another storm system nearing the waters
this weekend but confidence is too low at this time.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032.
Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday
for MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21
Short Term...JS
Long Term...JS
Aviation...21/JS
Marine...21/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
