NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KCAR 182030
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
430 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region tonight into Friday. An
occluded front approaches Friday night, crosses the region
Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. A cold front
crosses the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then
builds across the region later Monday into Tuesday
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface/upper level ridging persists across the region tonight
into early Friday, then begins to exit across the Maritimes
later Friday. An occluded front will approach western New
England later Friday. Any remaining diurnal clouds will
dissipate early this evening leaving skies generally mostly
clear across the forecast area tonight. However, clouds could
begin to increase across western areas late tonight. Expect
increasing clouds, from west to east, Friday. Low temperatures
tonight will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to the
lower to mid 30s Downeast. High temperatures Friday will range
from the mid to upper 50s across much of the forecast area.
However, onshore winds from the Gulf of Maine will keep cooler
temperatures along the Downeast coast where high temperatures
will range from around 50 to the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface/upper level ridge moves east Friday evening in advance of
the weakening occluded front. The lowest levels remain quite dry
right into Friday night, thus expect just the chance of showers
with the approaching front later Friday night. There is some
indication that some enhancement of the shower activity will
take place as the front nears the coast, as some energy rounds
the approaching upper trof. As such, have shown an area of
likely pops Downeast later Friday night through early Saturday.
South wind will keep lows from falling much lower than the 40
degree for most areas. A short wave and weak cold front crosses
the region Saturday afternoon with additional shower chances,
especially for central and Downeast areas. Afternoon highs on
Saturday still expected to reach to above normal levels in the
mid to upper 50s. Saturday night features drier and somewhat
cooler conditions behind the departing short wave and cold
front. H5 low remains centered near Hudson bay during Sunday.
Lapse rate steepen up in advance of the approaching upper trof
enough to generate some cumulus but the dry low levels should
preclude any measurable rainfall through Sunday afternoon.
Afternoon highs will top out right around seasonal levels for
this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night features a cold front crossing the region. Expect
the chance for a few snow showers with the front, mainly across
the St. John Valley and northern Aroostook. Monday looks like a
dry and cooler day as H925/850 temperatures cool several
degrees from the weekend. Perhaps the bigger story will be the
potential for gusty northwest winds as indications are for a
deep mixed layer to be present with gusts to 35 to 40 mph
possible. Monday night through Tuesday will be dry as high
pressure builds in. Looks like another trough sets up across the
eastern U.S. middle of next week. There are indications that a
low pressure system will impact northern Maine during that time
frame. This system could bring the chance of some rain or snow
by that time. One thing that looks more certain is the potential
for below normal temperatures by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected tonight through Friday. Light
and variable winds tonight. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
Friday.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Saturday...MVFR possible in showers. LLWS possible.
S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW Saturday.
Saturday night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night-Monday...VFR, except chance MVFR SHSN Sunday night
KFVE/KCAR. NW wind gusts may approach 30 to 35 kt on Monday.
Monday night-Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Friday.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels
through the beginning of the weekend before gusts approach 25
kt by Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A prolonged period of dry weather with low relative humidity and
gusty winds is expected through Tuesday. A wetting rain is not
expected Friday night into Saturday. The next potential for more
significant precipitation occurs Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Norcross/TWD
Marine...Norcross/TWD
Fire Weather...MCW/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
