NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
572
FXUS61 KCAR 142333
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
633 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly exits through the Maritimes as high pressure
builds in from the west tonight through Monday night, with the high
also exiting to the east on Tuesday. An area of low pressure passes
to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday night, followed by high
pressure on Thursday, then a second low passing to the north
Thursday night though Friday night. High pressure builds in on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather through Monday night.
630 PM Update: Dry air along the coast has prevented snow
showers in the area from making it to the surface, and due to
these radar returns being virga, PoPs were reduced through
Washington county with this update. Meanwhile, light snow
showers gradually push southwards into the St. John Valley and
are spreading throughout Aroostook county over the next couple
of hours.
Previous Discussion:
Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight...
A strong upper level trough is approaching from the west. All
the snow has been south of the state, and it should stay that
way. Can`t rule out some intermittent light snow the rest of
this afternoon and early this evening along the Downeast coast,
but odds favor even the coast staying dry. Across the north, the
upper trough moving through late this afternoon and evening
with cold advection could ignite a few snow showers, and have 20
PoPs from about Presque Isle north to account for this. NW
winds tonight will pick up as the upper trough moves through and
as low pressure south/southeast of our area strengthens.
Monday...
Main story Monday will be the gusty NW winds, with gusts around
30 mph for many areas. Could be just strong enough for a little
blowing snow in the agricultural areas of Aroostook and
Northern Penobscot, but the snow is a bit windblown from the
previous event and winds won`t be potent enough to lead to any
significant blowing issues, just minor localized blowing/drifting.
Cold with highs in the mid teens north and low 20s Downeast.
Mostly cloudy north, and mostly sunny/partly cloudy south. Should
be dry.
Monday Night...
Weak high pressure begins to build in from the west, with winds
beginning to slacken. No precipitation, and lows generally in
the single digits.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak northern stream ridging builds over the area on Tuesday,
then exits to the east Tuesday night. Associated subsidence
should keep things dry Tuesday and Tuesday evening, then an
approaching surface-850 mb warm front could bring some light
snow to portions of the North, depending on how much low level
moisture is actually available to work with. Models differ on
this, so have pops at slight chance for now. Highs on Tuesday
should be around 5-10 degrees below normal. With the surface/low
level warm front lifting to the north, should see a non-dirunal
temperature trend Tuesday night. Blended in CONSRaw guidance
with the NBM to help accentuate this, especially across
Downeast Maine and the Bangor region where this should be most
pronounced. Lows should occur mainly in the evening as a result,
with values near to slightly above normal. With dewpoints well
below freezing, should not see any fog, except for maybe near
the immediate coast. Could see some gusts of 20-35 mph Tuesday
night, strongest near the immediate coast and over higher
elevations.
A northern stream shortwave approaches Wednesday morning, then
moves into Maine Wednesday afternoon. This brings with it some
mainly isolated to possibly scattered snow showers across the
North - where the best forcing will be. Highs on Wednesday
should be around 5 degrees above normal. Could see wind gusts of
35-40 mph over mainly Downeast Maine on Wednesday. At this time
it appears most likely that winds will remain below advisory
criteria, however this possibility cannot be ruled out.
Confidence in this occurring at this time is too low to mention
in the HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The northern stream shortwave exits to the east Wednesday
evening, bringing on end to the isolated to scattered snow
showers as it does so. Threat for wind gusts 35-40mph over
mainly Downeast Maine continues Wednesday night, with a low
chance for wind gusts to advisory level (but too low a chance to
mention in the HWO at this time).
Deep layered ridging builds in Thursday, with its axis exiting
to the east Thursday evening. It should be dry on Thursday, then
pops increase from W to E Thursday night, as SW flow sets up
aloft, with strong low level warm advection. Precipitation could
start as a brief period of snow across the north, but change to
all rain by around midnight, so little in the way of
accumulating snow is expected. With warm moist air crossing over
a decent snow pack, should see at least patchy fog develop
across most of the region by late Thursday night.
A northern stream trough, extending SE from a cutoff low over
Hudson Bay, approaches Friday, with its axis passing to the east
Friday night. Rain should taper off to showers from SW to NE
Friday morning. The models differ on the exact timing of this
system, with the CMC/GFS and its ensemble members generally
faster than the ECMWF and its ensemble members. Leaned towards
the faster solution given the fairly progressive pattern. As a
result, would expect colder air to quickly work in from NW to SE
on Friday, causing the rain showers to quickly change to snow
showers across the North and Upper Penobscot Valley and to rain
and snow showers elsewhere. There is the potential for strong to
possibly damaging winds across Downeast Maine ahead of this
system - with wind advisory criteria being reached likely and
high wind warning criteria possibly being hit over coastal Downeast
from Friday into Friday evening (with a 60-80 kt low level
jet). A more widespread winds to around advisory level, with an
even lower chance of winds approaching warning level is then
possibly later Friday night behind the system (with a 35-50 kt
low level jet and fairly steep low-mid level lapse rates
allowing for a better chance for the stronger winds aloft to
more fully mix down). Will highlight the wind threat in the HWO,
as there is some potential for downed trees and power lines,
with the highest risk of this over Downeast Maine.
Northern stream ridging builds in Saturday, so it should be dry,
with the possible exception of some lingering snow showers early
Saturday morning and isolated to possibly scattered snow showers
moving into far NW zones late in the day, if the axis of the
ridge slides east sooner than currently expected.
The ridge axis quickly exits to the east Saturday evening,
followed by an approaching northern stream shortwave, that
passes, Sunday morning, followed by the approach of a northern
stream trough. This sets up for a period of light to possibly
moderate snow across northern and eastern Maine Saturday night
(possibly mixed with or all rain at the immediate coast). Then
depending on if a coastal low develops or not, the snow could
then continue across the North Sunday with a rain/snow mix
changing to rain elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR through early this evening, with the
exception of MVFR cigs at FVE. This evening, roughly around 3z,
CAR/PQI are likely to develop MVFR cigs that should persist
through most of the night until around 10z Monday. HUL could get
MVFR cigs late tonight, but confidence is low. BGR/BHB are
likely to remain VFR tonight. For winds, expect NW winds to
increase especially later tonight, with NW wind generally
becoming 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts during the day Monday.
Monday night, winds weaken and mainly VFR expected. Brief LLWS
possible early Monday evening as winds begin to slacken.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Tuesday evening: VFR. SW-SSW winds G15-25KT possible.
Late Tuesday night-Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower across
the north in any light snow, with moderate-high confidence of
VFR at southern terminals. SSW-SW winds G15-20KT possible at
northern terminals. SW-WSW winds G30-35KT likely and G40KT
possible at southern terminals.
Wednesday night: Chance of MVFR in the evening at northern
terminals, otherwise VFR. SW-WNW winds G20-30KT probable at
northern terminals and SW-W winds G30-35KT likely and G40KT
possible at southern terminals.
Thursday: VFR. LLWS possible.
Thursday night-Friday: IFR or lower likely. LLWS likely Thursday
night and possible Friday morning. W winds G25-40KT possible
Friday afternoon, most likely strongest at southern terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Issued gale warning for all but the inner waters,
with high confidence (90 percent) in NW gales tonight and
Monday. Light freezing spray as well later tonight and Monday
morning. Winds ease significantly through the night Monday
night. Seas build tonight and Monday morning, peak as high as
about 7 feet midday Monday, then ease to less than 4 feet late
Monday night.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday should see sub-SCA conditions on all waters.
Gales likely to develop on all waters by late Tuesday night and
continue into if not through Wednesday night. SCA conditions
probable on the coastal ocean waters Thursday, with sub SCA
conditions likely on the intra-coastal waters Thursday morning,
with SCA conditions possible there in the afternoon. Gales
become likely on all waters Thursday night and should continue
into Friday night. There is also a chance for gusts to storm
force on the coastal ocean waters on Friday. These threats will
be reflected in the HWO.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES/TF
Short Term...PM
Long Term...PM
Aviation...AES/TF/PM
Marine...AES/TF/PM