NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
507
FXUS61 KCAR 120703
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
203 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased confidence in snow showers Friday night through
Saturday night, but lack of moisture could keep accumulations
low.
-Chance for a storm system mid-week next week, but there is
still uncertainty in the low pressure system track, and the
timing.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will lead to patchy blowing and drifting of
recent snowfall today, potentially limiting visibility.
2) Snow showers possible Friday night through Saturday night.
3) Potential for a storm to bring periods of snow to the north,
and rain far Downeast coast mid-week next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Gusty winds will lead to patchy blowing and drifting of
recent snowfall today, potentially limiting visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Winds will increase today as the previous low pressure system
continues to shift eastward and continue to deepen, tightening
the pressure gradient aloft between the departing low and the
incoming ridge of high pressure. Gusts 25 to 30 mph will have a
chance at picking up recent snowfall, and winds of this strength
could break through any weak crust that may have formed since
snow stopped falling. The result will be brief periods of
blowing snow through the day that could limit visibility,
particularly around open fields. The primary result from these
winds will be the drifting of snow, however, which may impact
cleanup efforts as snow drifts back into cleared areas. Drifting
snow may also become lofted as it drifts over snowbanks,
providing another source of potential visibility decrease for
those who are commuting or traveling today.
Gusts will become fewer in number overnight and through the day
on Friday, with winds finally subsiding through the day on
Friday. Winds overnight will couple with cold air temperatures,
leading to wind chills falling below zero in the north, and
potentially reaching double digits below zero in this area.
Despite clear skies, persistent pressure gradient will limit
surface decoupling and reduce radiational cooling potential.
That said, more sheltered valleys, especially in the north,
could see localized decoupling and air temperatures in these
locations could approach 10 below zero.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers possible Friday night through
Saturday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Mid-level low pressure system in Quebec moves southeast through
Maine on Saturday. Decent vorticity max moving in with this
low, alongside some good mid-level lapse rates and positive
omega values. That being said, PWATs are only around 0.25 inch,
and relatively deep dry layers at 500 and 700mb heights could
result in overall light snowfall accumulations. Showers could
begin in the north and west late Friday night. Showers shift to
the Crown of Maine by Saturday morning into evening. Showers
then shift to the Crown on Maine and eastern Maine by Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning. Overall accumulations
expected to only be an inch, but with good convective
parameters, can not rule out a period of heavier showers,
predominantly in the far north on Saturday. Relatively fluffy
snow, with ratios around 18:1.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for a system to bring periods of snow
to the north, and rain far Downeast coast mid-week next week.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system to the west quickly moves eastwards towards
the region, bringing another potential for snow showers, and
some rain along the Downeast coast. Warm air advection next
week raises temperatures into the 30s for most of the region,
which could cause some significant snow melt in places receiving
rainfall. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing
quickly overnight, which could cause issues for travel Wednesday
night into Thursday. There is disagreement among the models in
terms of timing for this system, with the GFS showing
precipitation moving in Wednesday, while the ECMWF has
precipitation move in late Wednesday night. This system is still
far out however, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Today - Friday: Generally MVFR conditions will remain across
all terminals through the early morning hours before scattering
out into the day today as low pressure shifts eastward.
Generally VFR conditions persist through the day, though brief
periods of MVFR vis are possible in BLSN, especially at northern
terminals. NW winds will increase today, becoming 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 20 to 25 kts through this afternoon. Skies clear out
overnight as VFR conditions continue, and these conditions will
last into the day on Friday as well. Gusts will taper some
overnight; enough for LLWS to develop overnight at around 40
kts. As diurnal mixing returns on Friday, LLWS will mix out and
NW winds 5 to 10 kts may continue to gust to 20 kts until Friday
evening, when winds will begin to diminish.
Friday night: VFR. W winds, shifting SW, around 5 kts.
Late Friday night-Saturday night: Most likely VFR at southern
terminals. MVFR at northern terminals due to snow showers, with
a potential for IFR condition in any stronger snow showers.
W/NW winds, at 5-10 kts.
Sunday-Sunday night: Generally VFR. NW winds around 10kts,
becoming light overnight.
Monday: VFR/MVFR with potential snow showers at terminals. S
winds at 5-10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions continue through the day today
with gusts 25 to 30 kts, though a few gusts to 35 kts are
possible near 25 nm out on the coastal waters. Seas 2 to 5 ft.
Winds will begin to subside late tonight into Friday morning,
and gusts should remain below 25 kts through the day on Friday.
Light freezing spray possible for a few hours around sunrise
this morning on the intracoastals, then the threat for light
freezing spray returns across all waters tonight through Friday
morning.
Generally seas and winds below Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Potential for low-end Small Craft conditions over the outer
waters Sunday, and a potential for another Small Craft Wednesday
night into Thursday. Light freezing spray early Sunday morning.
Potential for some rain Monday over waters, transitioning to
snow Monday night. Rain possible again Wednesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
MARINE...AES/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
