NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
119
FXUS61 KCAR 290655
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Slightly increased the chance for snow showers today, mainly
to the north of the Katahdin region
- Increasing confidence on the track of the mid-week low
pressure system, and placement of best chances for mixed
precip types
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A brief period of light snow across the north Monday morning could
result in minor travel impacts, then turning unseasonably warm by
afternoon.
2) Wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across the north
Tuesday night, which could create slick surfaces leading to
travel hazards, particularly for the Wednesday morning commute.
3) Rapidly dropping temperatures may quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute.
4) A chance for another round of accumulating snow at the end
of this week as the active weather pattern continues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A brief period of light snow across the north Monday morning could
result in minor travel impacts, then turning unseasonably warm by
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
After one more unseasonably cool day today, it turns unseasonably
warm Monday, as a southwest flow develops in the wake of warm
frontal passage.
Low pressure will track east through Quebec province Monday with a
warm front crossing the region early. A brief period of light snow
is expected early Monday morning, mainly to the north of the
Katahdin region, as the warm front lift to the north. Although any
accumulation with this feature is expected to not be much more
than an inch or so, the snow will be falling right around the
commute time Monday morning. Thus, it may pose some minor
travel difficulties, especially across far northern Maine and
the Saint John valley.
The good news is that any snow that does fall early Monday morning
will quickly melt as temperatures are expected to rise well above
freezing during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across the north Tuesday
night, which could create slick surfaces leading to travel
hazards, particularly for the Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
An open wave low pressure system will approach from the west on
Tuesday, with a warm front lifting northwards through the CWA
Tuesday night and the trailing cold front surging through the
area during the day on Wednesday. With the nocturnal warm front
passage, temperatures may remain steady or could even rise
through the night.
There is increasing consensus on the exact track for this low,
but which path it takes could greatly influence precip types and
amounts in the forecast area.
- Solution A is a low track across the center, or just north of
center, of the state. This track lifts the warm front into
the northern half of the CWA, then the trough orientation
pivots slightly so the low moves along this stalling warm
front. The result is an extended period of time with a warm
nose inversion across the north, persisting the threat for
freezing rain and/or sleet in this area. This is the solution
most guidance has been trending towards, as seen across the
GEFS, and deterministic GFS and ECMWF. The EPS members also
agree with this solution, and some members even suggest the
low could pass north of our forecast area entirely, which
could result in all rain across the forecast area! The NBM
also reflects Solution A, and was thus used as the basis for
the current forecast.
- Solution B is the low sticking closer to the coast, and
passing south of most of our CWA. This solution is much colder
for the forecast area and would be more of a snow solution in
the north, and a wintry mix for the Downeast region. That
said, this solution is the least favored one, only really
being seen on both the global and regional deterministic
Canadian guidance. That said, the Canadian ensemble spread,
though clustering along the coast, also has a secondary
cluster of members that follow the same track as reflected in
other guidance across the center of the state.
With consensus pointing the forecast towards Solution A, the
northern half of the forecast area could see at least a glaze of
ice on elevated surfaces by early Wednesday morning, with one to
two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation in the realm of
possibilities at this point. Sleet probabilities are low, but
high enough that there could be a period of ice pellets that
would reduce how much ice will accrete on elevated surfaces.
This wintry mix may have significant impacts to the Wednesday
morning commute in the north. Temperatures will continue to
climb Wednesday morning, with most of the north changing over to
warm rain through the morning. For the Bangor region and
Downeast, precip type should be all rain.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Rapidly dropping temperatures may quickly freeze wet
surfaces late Wednesday, with possible travel hazards for the
Wednesday evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
The cold front behind the open wave mentioned above will lead to
a rapid drop in temperatures Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. A LLJ may develop ahead of this could front,
which could lead to a brief period of gusty winds Wednesday
before the FROPA. If the winds are strong enough for long enough
behind the stratiform rain, wet surface will have a chance to
dry before temperatures crash. However, any surface which
remains wet behind the FROPA could rapidly freeze, and this
creates the chance for slick surfaces Wednesday evening.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A chance for another round of accumulating snow at the end of
this week as the active weather pattern continues.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Another low pressure system will approach from the southwest
through the end of this week. At this time, the timing and track
of this low remain quite uncertain, with guidance timing alone
spreading the low arrival anywhere from Thursday afternoon to
Friday night. This storm is the next chance for accumulating
snowfall across the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected today into early this evening. MVFR
conditions are possible toward daybreak Monday at the Aroostook
terminals in a brief period of light snow 10z to 14z timeframe.
Otherwise on Monday, generally expect VFR/MVFR conditions at all
terminals. SW wind 5 to 10 kt through tonight, then increasing to 10
to 15 kt with G15 kt.
Mon night...MVFR/IFR cigs at northern terminals, VFR trending
towards MVFR at southern terminals. Winds light and variable.
Tues...IFR/LIFR. Rain at southern terminals, snow at northern
terminals. E/NE winds 5 to 10 kts.
Tues night...IFR/LIFR. Rain at southern terminals, FZRA/PL at
northern terminals. E winds 5 to 10 kts at northern terminals,
SE winds 5 to 10 kts at southern terminals. Gusts to 20 kts.
Wed...IFR/LIFR with rain early, with quick drop in temperature
with cold front late and rapid improvement to VFR. Southern
winds with rapid shift NE with afternoon cold front 10 to 15
kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.
Wed night...VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Thurs...VFR early, with cigs falling towards MVFR/IFR depending
on storm timing. N winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the water later this
morning right the day on Monday. Expect gusts up to 30 kt with seas
4 to 7 ft
Conditions will trend upwards towards gales through the day on
Tuesday, becoming gales over all waters by Tuesday night. Winds
will finally decrease once more Wednesday night behind a cold
front. Seas 4 to 7 ft to increase towards 10 to 15 ft Tuesday
night, then gradually improve through the second half of the
week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
Monday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
