NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
212
FXUS61 KCAR 041045
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
545 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation section to reflect 12z TAFs
- Added mention of freezing rain in the forecast for Friday
night into early Saturday morning due to increasing agreement
across guidance and cold air damming signature on forecast
soundings
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow likely across far northern Maine tonight followed
by sharply colder temperatures Thursday.
2) Wintry mix possible Friday night into Saturday, which could
create slick travel conditions by early Saturday morning.
3) Warming trend with above normal temperatures, leading to
melting snow pack into the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light snow likely across far northern Maine tonight followed by
sharply colder temperatures Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A sharp cold front will sink south across northern Maine this
evening and then across the remainder of the forecast area
overnight. As it does so, expect a period of light snow, mainly
north of the Katahdin region. Accumulations will generally be an
inch or less, but some locally slick travel is possible
overnight, especially the St. John valley region in far northern
Maine. It will also turn sharply colder with the passage of the
front, with temperatures falling into the single digits above
zero across far northern areas. Thursday will be a much colder
day than today, with highs only in the lower to mid teens across
the north mid 20s for the Bangor region and Downeast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Wintry mix possible Friday night into Saturday, which could
create slick travel conditions by early Saturday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system will approach from the west Friday night
into this weekend. A warm front should lift north through the
CWA sometime Friday night through Saturday, followed by a cold
front late Saturday into Saturday night.
A complicating factor with this low pressure system will be the
temperature profile. After several nights of temperatures
slightly below average throughout the forecast area, a warm
front will lift northwards over the area ushering in much warmer
air, where surface temperatures will eventually surge towards 50
degrees later in the day on Saturday. As this happens, there is
increasing likelihood that a warm nose will develop around
900mb, making way for the generation of wintry mixed precip of
either freezing rain and/or sleet late Friday night into early
Saturday morning. There remain several questions with this
forecast:
A: Will cold air damming be as significant as it appears at
first glance?
- The NBM suggests a chance for freezing rain across the entire
CWA all night. Given the blended nature of this guidance,
this solution is likely overdone for ice amounts. That said,
after inspecting guidance not included in the national blend,
such as the ICON and UKMET models, which also bring in
freezing rain through the night, there is increased confidence
in the existence of a wintry mix. Forecast profiles bring SE
winds at the surface and SW winds aloft, which is akin to
previous freezing rain events such as the December 11, 2024
event which featured a similar wind profile in a strong CAD
setup. Contrary to the previous statement, it has also been
found that SSE/NNW isobar orientation is preferred for CAD in
this FA, with SSW/NNE isobar orientation less favorable. The
GFS holds the favorable orientation briefly, but the chance
for CAD appears more marginal using the isobar orientation
method.
B: Even if cold air damming exists, will there be enough
moisture for precip to fall as a wintry mix?
- Here there lies even less certainty than the existence of
CAD. In events past, this is often where our area struggles to
receive much in the way of wintry mix. Indeed, guidance shows
potentially some prefrontal precip followed by precip along
the warm front. For the prefrontal precip, this is most likely
if the previous coastal low pressure on Friday tracks closer
to the CWA, feeding moisture into our region. If it remains on
a track south of Nova Scotia, it is unlikely there will be
enough precip falling into any lingering dry air in our FA to
saturate the profile and for precip to make it all the way to
the surface before warm air makes it all the way to the
surface. But, should there be enough precip along the warm
front itself, the dry air may very well be overcome and a
brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet could develop early
Saturday morning before the CAD setup erodes into the day.
No matter the solution, warm air advection should increase into
the day on Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens and
southerly winds increase, lifting surface temperatures well into
the 40s and leading to stratiform warm rain that lasts through
the rest of the day. Behind the cold front into the day on
Sunday, temperatures will fall some, but a more mild air mass
will remain in place, keeping temperatures above normal through
the end of the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Warming trend with above normal temperatures, leading to melting
snow pack into the middle of next week.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A split stream flow may develop into the next work week, with
the subtropical jet to our south and polar jet to our north,
ushering future low pressure systems south and north of our
forecast area respectively through the first half of the next
week. With a more mild air mass in place and no change in air
mass through the beginning of the week, temperatures could
gradually climb each day, with daily high temperatures lifting
into the upper 40s to mid 50s through the forecast area each
day. For lows, temperatures could fall into the mid 20s to
around 30 each night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...VFR through much of this afternoon, then MVFR
or lower possible in -SN this evening into tonight, especially
N of KHUL. VFR returns Thursday. W wind 10 to 15 kt today,
becoming N 5 to 10 kt tonight through Thursday.
KBGR/KBHB...VFR through Thursday. SW to W wind 10 to 15 kt
today, then light W becoming N after midnight, then N 10 to 15
kt on Thursday.
Thurs night - Fri...VFR/MVFR. Light E winds become SE at 5 to
10 kts.
Fri night - Sat...MVFR/IFR. Wintry mix possible overnight
through early Saturday morning, becoming rain through the day on
Saturday. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight becoming S at 10 to
15 kts gusting to 25 kts on Saturday.
Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals. Winds shift W winds
5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels today through tonight.
Winds/seas could then approach SCA levels again by Thursday
afternoon.
Small craft advisory criteria will likely be met Thursday night
through the day on Friday with WNW winds gusting 25 to 30 kts,
especially over the coastal waters. Warming temperatures through
this time will limit the threat for freezing spray. Snow could
move in over the waters on Friday, likely switching to rain
Friday night into Saturday and potentially limiting visibility
over this time. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday into
Saturday night behind a cold front. Temperatures will remain
mild enough through the weekend for no freezing spray threat at
that time.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
