NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
722
FXUS61 KCAR 050642
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
142 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Added fog within warm sector of approaching low pressure this
weekend, particularly across the Downeast region.
-Increased sleet in forecast due to forecast sounding profiles
being conducive for ice pellets in addition to freezing rain
Saturday morning
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light wintry mix Friday night into Saturday, which could
create slick travel conditions by early Saturday morning. Areas
of fog could also limit visibility through this time.
2) Warming trend with above normal temperatures, leading to
melting snow pack and river/lake ice rot into the middle of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light wintry mix Friday night into Saturday,
which could create slick travel conditions by early Saturday
morning. Areas of fog could also limit visibility through this
time.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system will approach from the west Friday night
into this weekend. Leading the way will be a warm front, lifting
north through the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning. The
forecast area will likely spend Saturday afternoon in the warm
sector of the approaching low pressure system. A cold front will
then cross the region through Saturday night.
Forecast soundings continue to increase confidence in a cold
air damming setup, with a warm nose around 900mb that will lead
to a wintry mix developing along the leading edge of
precipitation. Mid level dry air will need to saturate before
precipitation makes it to the surface, and there is still some
uncertainty in how quickly this will happen through Friday
night. Guidance has a bias of saturating dry air aloft more
quickly than ends up happening, and based on this previous bias,
precip chances have been reduced over the first 6 hours Friday
night to slow the onset of precipitation. That said, this may
not have been trimmed enough, and there is the potential that
precip may not begin until after sunrise Saturday morning,
particularly across the Rt 11 and US-1 corridors.
The type of wintry precip that falls will highly depend on the
timing that precip begins as well as how quickly CAD erodes and
the surface warms. If the dry air aloft holds on until after
sunrise, there could be little to no wintry mix, as increased
warm air advection aided by the return of diurnal heating will
quickly overcome weak to moderate CAD and precip may begin as
warm rain. However, if the dry air aloft saturates more quickly
and the CAD holds on a little stronger, freezing rain and/or
sleet may fall through the second half of the night. The most
likely areas for this wintry mix will be the Central Highlands
up through the north: wherever cold air may dam, though the
Bangor area through the Downeast region could see a brief period
of freezing rain and/or sleet before temperatures quickly rise
above freezing.
At this time range, it is difficult to differentiate between
sleet and freezing rain chances, so in this forecast these
chances have been set to equal to each other. With such a
defined warm nose such as seen on GFS forecast soundings and a
clear CAD setup, sleet is definitely in the realm of
possibility, though the chances of sleet are often very washed
out in the NBM, which is why chances were increased with this
forecast.
QPF amounts are overall light with this system, particularly
during the time in which wintry precip types are possible.
Therefore, not anticipating any large ice accretions or sleet
accumulation, but just enough icing is possible to create slick
travel conditions Saturday morning.
Finally, the rush of warm air and moisture over frozen and snow
covered ground will likely generate advection fog, with areas of
fog likely Downeast to limit visibility through the day on
Saturday before loss of snow pack, warming surface, and
increased winds erode the fog.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Warming trend with above normal temperatures, leading to
melting snow pack and river/lake ice rot into the middle of
next week.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A split stream flow may develop into the next work week, with
the subtropical jet to our south and polar jet to our north,
ushering future low pressure systems south and north of our CWA
respectively through the first half of the next week. With a
more mild air mass in place and no change in air mass through
the beginning of the week, temperatures may gradually climb each
day, with daily high temperatures lifting into the upper 40s to
mid 50s through the forecast area each day. For lows,
temperatures could fall into the mid 20s to low to mid 30s each
night.
There is a chance for another low pressure system through the
middle of next week, with lots of unknowns at this time. Given
the more mild temperature pattern, precip types could be
colorful once more, and it is not out of the question that
another warm nose (such as seen on forecast profiles) could lead
to another round of wintry mix. Should the orientation or speed
of this system change however, this system could be all rain, or
a mix of rain and snow, or precip chances could trend down and
the system end up not being as impactful. This system will
continue to be closely monitored over the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. VFR at the
Aroostook terminals Friday with MVFR ceilings possible
KBGR/KBHB. N to NE wind around 10 kt today, then 5 to 10 kt
tonight. E wind around 5 kt Friday.
Fri night - Sat...MVFR/IFR. Wintry mix possible overnight
through early Saturday morning, becoming rain through the day on
Saturday. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight becoming S at 10 to
15 kts gusting 25 to 30 kts on Sat.
Sat night - Sun...Improvement to VFR. Winds shift W winds 5 to
10 kts.
Sun night - Mon...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10
kts with gusts to 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday morning
for the outer waters.
Wave heights are likely to remain around 4 to 6 ft Friday night
despite wind gusts diminishing below 25 kts, and small craft
advisory criteria will likely continue to be met Friday night
through Saturday. Winds will begin to increase on Saturday with
the passage of a low pressure system, and there is increasing
confidence gusts will increase to gales by Saturday night, then
taper once more into the day on Sunday. SCA criteria may then
continue into the early part of next week. Mild air temperatures
will limit any chance of freezing spray development.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday
for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES
AVIATION...AES/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
