NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
818
FXUS61 KCAR 030704
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
204 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain over Eastern Canada through
the weekend as surface high pressure builds in from the west.
High pressure will slide over the area Monday then push to the
east on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday and
track into the Maritimes on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:
1) Frigid air remains in place through the entire near term
Discussion...
Arctic air in place this weekend across Maine leading to just
frigid conditions. Using the NOAA Hysplit Backward Trajectory
model the airmass in Maine originated in the Beaufort Sea region
of the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska around 76-77 degrees N
latitude. This airmass was over the Arctic Ocean around
Christmas Day and traveled south over Nunavut Canada down near
Hudson Bay and then down over Ontario/Quebec to Maine. The
airmass didn`t modify that much over Canada and that resulted in
deep cold throughout the boundary layer. Longwave trof at 500mb
with weak pieces of energy passing through will keep the winds
out of the west and cold air advection in place today.
Temperatures starting out below zero to near zero except 5-10F
along the immediate coastline thanks to the warmer sea surface
temperatures in the Gulf of Maine. Wind Chills across much of
the Moosehead Region to Northern Maine may dip to -30F this
morning and therefore the Cold Weather Advisory remains in
effect till 10AM EST. Today, opted to keep highs close to the
NBM 5.0 QMD which would be closer to the NBM 4.3 25th-33rd
percentile. Despite the partly to mostly sunny skies do not
expect much diurnal help with highs only topping out in the 0-5F
range across the Moosehead Region, Baxter Region to Aroostook
County. From the Highlands southward to the Downeast Coast
expecting highs 10-15F today. W winds 5-15mph will result in
wind chills -15F to -10F across the North and -5F to +5F for the
Bangor Region and Downeast coast.
Tonight is a challenge in the forecast as surface high pressure
settles in over southern Quebec. A weak 500mb shortwave pivots
the overall long wave trof into southern New England. Hi-res
models along with the globals are in agreement with increased
probabilities of cloudy skies in our southern 2/3rd of the CWA
and cannot rule out a few snow showers. Best chance of snow
showers will be Bucksport to Cherryfield to Eastport and points
southward out to over the Gulf of Maine. Very little if any
accumulations are expected. Now...the clouds will play a roll in
how much we can decouple across the CWA. Despite the southern
2/3rd of the CWA in some increased clouds expecting lows to dive
to below zero for most areas with 0-5F along the immediate
shoreline. Across much of Northern Maine the NBM 5.0
probabilities of MinT QMD less than -10F has increased to 95-99
percent with the probs of less than -20F generally 20-40
percent except in Estcourt where < -20F temps probs around
70-80%. Opted to blend the forecast with the NBM 5.0 Mean QMD
lows which results in widespread lows of -20F to -15F across
Northern Maine, Caribou at -16F, Presque Isle -19F, -19F for Fort
Kent and opted to go -24F for a low in Estcourt Station. Given
there wont be much of a wind tonight a Cold Weather Advisory
wont be needed as criteria for wind chills or actual air
temperatures is -25F or less.
Sunday the cold remains locked in over the state with partly
sunny skies. Cannot rule out some snow showers Downeast thanks
to a developing storm system well southeast of the Gulf of
Maine. Blended the NBM 4.3 highs with the 25th percentile which
brings highs closer to the NBM 5.0 MaxT QMD and consistent with
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian ensemble blend. This means highs once again
struggling to get to the positive side of the Fahrenheit scale.
Highs 0-7F across Northern Maine, 8-13F for the Central
Highlands to Houlton to Danforth regions and 12-16F for Bangor
region and Downeast Maine. Winds will be very light from the NW
around 5mph or less but any wind means below zero wind chills
for most northern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
We will remain in a frigid air mass Sunday night as high pressure
builds in from the west. This will bring a mostly clear and bitter
cold night. The main forecast challenge will be whether or not the
low levels decouple and become calm late at night. This could
produce some lows close to 20 below in the coldest valleys. There is
still a light gradient and if a breeze continues and the air stays
mixed we will only be in the low to mid teens below. Will bet on the
deeper valleys decoupling and carrying the coldest lows by early
Monday morning.
Monday will be mostly sunny but remaining bitter cold with highs
only from the mid single digits north to the mid teens by the coast.
This will be followed by another very cold night Monday night. Winds
will be calmer, but some high clouds may stray into the area ahead
of a weak warm front lifting into Western Quebec so Monday night
will not be quite as cold as Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday will turn out partly sunny north, and perhaps mostly cloudy
Downeast where some lower clouds will lift north ahead of return
flow behind departing high pressure. There will be some moderation
in temperatures though highs from the low teens north to near
freezing by the coast will still be well below normal.
Low pressure will approach Tuesday night and lift up to our
northwest on on Wednesday spreading snow into the area. Models
differ on the eventual track of the system with the GFS carrying the
low to our northwest which would bring a change over to rain across
the area. The ECMWF, however, carries a low to our south keeping
snow across most of the region. Wednesday will be milder with highs
from near 30 north to 40 along some coastal areas.
A significant pattern change into the end of the next week favoring
ridging into the east and a trough in the west will bring a
continuation of moderation with highs near freezing Thursday then
above freezing Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Before 12z...VFR with FEW-SCT cigs across the terms.
W winds 5-10kt with a few gusts up to 20kt. After 12z...VFR
today with W winds 5-15kt and some gusts up to 20kt. Tonight,
VFR and light and variable winds. Sunday AM cannot rule out
VCSH/-SHSN for BHB otherwise just VFR cigs. Winds becoming NW
5-10kt.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR, except possibly MVFR at times over the far
north. Light NW winds.
Monday...VFR. Gusty NW winds.
Monday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR or IFR in low clouds across
the south. Light S wind
Tuesday night...IFR south. MVFR dropping to IFR north. Light SE
winds.
Wednesday...IFR. Light SE winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: For the Intra-Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until 10AM EST this morning for W winds
15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and seas 1-3ft. Freezing Spray
Advisory remains in effect until 11AM EST this morning for
moderate accumulation of freezing spray expected. Winds/seas to
be below SCA this afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Seas
becoming 1ft or less with winds shifting to the N-NW tonight
into tomorrow. Light freezing spray is expected from this
afternoon through Sunday evening. Snow showers are possible
Sunday AM which may briefly reduce vsby at times.
For the Coastal Waters out 25nm...Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect until 4PM EST this afternoon for W winds 15-25kt with
gusts up to 30kt and seas 3-6ft. A Freezing Spray Advisory
remains in effect through 11AM EST this morning for moderate
accumulations of freezing spray expected. Winds/seas below SCA
tonight into Sunday afternoon with seas falling to 1-2ft and
winds less than 20kt shifting to the N-NW. Light freezing spray
is expected from this afternoon through Sunday evening. Snow
showers are possible Sunday AM to midday which may briefly
reduce vsby at times.
Sea surface water temperatures range 39-43F from the Downeast
coast out 25nm including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.
During freezing spray conditions the U.S. Coast Guard advises
that you ensure all lifesaving equipment remains free of ice.
Mariners should prepare for accumulation of ice on their vessel
and consider altering plans to avoid or mitigate these hazardous
navigating conditions.
SHORT TERM:
A SCA may be needed Sunday night for winds gusting up to 30 kt.
A SCA may be needed for seas up to 6 ft produced by a southerly
fetch late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-
051.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
ANZ050>052.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...JS/MB
Marine...JS/MB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
