NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
774
FXUS61 KCAR 122233
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
533 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pres builds in tonight, then exits to the E on Sat.
Low pres tracks E of Nova Scotia Sun. High pres builds across
the region Mon into Tue before another low pressure system
passes to the north on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
5:33PM UPDATE...Minor tweaks to increase POPs across the St.
John Valley into the far tip of the Crown due to continued snow
shower activity. FAA Webcams and Canadian Radar data showing
echos in this area and some along the Quebec/North Woods border.
Otherwise Marine Headline changes are noted below.
Previous Discussion...
Main Point:
* Reductions to visibility from blowing snow will quickly
improve this evening; winds will taper off overnight
Discussion:
A tight pressure gradient remains over the forecast area into
this evening, resulting in gusty winds throughout the CWA and
blowing snow across the north. This pressure gradient will begin
to relax into the overnight hours. As winds begin to decrease,
compaction and settling from the blowing snow earlier in the day
will create a crust on the snow pack limiting the ability for
snow to be lofted without a further increase in winds, and the
reduction in visibility due to blowing snow will quickly
improve. Patchy blowing snow and drifting snow may last for a
couple more hours past sunset this evening, but all snow
movement should rapidly cease into the overnight hours as winds
improve and the snow pack crusts over.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will crest over the forecast
area on Saturday, and return flow will lead to temperatures
lifting into the low to mid 20s in the north and around freezing
Downeast. Low pressure approaches from the west Saturday night,
and another round of light snow showers could result over the
CWA late overnight. The greatest chance for any light
accumulation will be Downeast, closer to the developing coastal
low pressure.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Breezy and cold Monday
On Sunday, a positively tilted upper level trough will be
moving through the northeast. At the surface, weakening low
pressure moving from the Great Lakes region will be just to our
north. Further south over the waters, a strengthening low
pressure system will pass well south of the Maine coast. The
offshore low may get close enough for some light snow over the
waters and snow showers along the coast but not expecting any
notable impacts from the system. Over northern Maine, the
weakening low may support some isolated snow showers but likely
not snow squalls due to the minimal instability.
Precipitation should clear out by Monday morning as a ridge of
high pressure briefly builds in to the area. A pressure gradient
between the strengthening offshore low and the high moving in is
likely to result in some windy conditions Monday. On Monday
night, a weakening cold front approaches from the west. Even as
the cold front falls apart there should be enough support for a
few light snow showers over northern and central Maine.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages
-Warming trend through late next week with above normal
temperatures
-A possible rain system late week (but considerable uncertainty
right now)
Precipitation clears out Tuesday with high pressure building
in. Low pressure passes to the north on Wednesday with a cold
front crossing the state Wednesday night which should result in
some snow showers, mainly over the north. Some timing
differences still exist and there is some discrepancy in
whether or not there will be enough warm air advection for some
areas to see rain showers, rather than snow showers. Current
thinking is that most areas will see snow. Regardless, the warm
air advection ahead of the front should lead to above normal,
and possibly above freezing, temperatures.
The warming trend is likely to continue Thursday as southerly
flow ahead of another system fosters more warm air advection.
There is considerable uncertainty in regards to what this late
week system might look like. Currently, most of the GEFS and EPS
ensemble members are showing a rain event as a strong low
passes to our north while some GEFS members favor a more
southerly track and a greater potential for snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs continue through this evening, while vis
alternates between MVFR and VFR depending on BLSN across
northern terminals. Downeast terminals remain VFR through this
evening. W winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts late this
afternoon will gradually decrease into the night, resulting in a
few hours of LLWS around 40 kts before a nocturnal inversion
fully develops. Winds will continue to diminish Saturday,
becoming SW 5 to 10 kts and then light and variable Saturday
night. VFR conditions continue into Saturday night, with a
lowering towards MVFR late in any snow showers.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of light snow
or snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
northwest/north.
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.
Monday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25
knots.
Monday night...VFR/MVFR north. A slight chance
of snow showers north Monday night through early Tuesday. VFR
Downeast. Northwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north with a slight chance of snow showers
early. VFR south. West winds around 5 knots.
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR south. S/Southwest winds 5
to 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE...Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the
Intra-Coastal Waters through midnight tonight due to a few gusts
up to 35kt. Gale Warning remains on the coastal waters till
midnight. No other changes...
Previous Discussion...
Gale conditions continue over the waters this afternoon with
gusts 35 to 40 kts. Winds will gradually begin to taper off into
this evening as high pressure rolls into the area, with the
intracoastal waters falling to small craft advisory criteria
this evening and the coastal waters falling to SCA criteria
after midnight tonight. Conditions will continue to improve into
the day on Saturday, with winds and seas falling below SCA
Levels through the morning. Seas 4 to 5 ft and gusts 25 to 30
kts may return over the coastal waters briefly Saturday evening,
but will be quick to disperse overnight Saturday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds increase to small craft advisory conditions
Sunday afternoon with gales likely Sunday night through Monday.
Seas peak at 5 to 7 ft Monday. Winds and seas subside below
small craft advisory conditions Monday night. Winds increase
again to small craft advisory conditions Tuesday night with
gales also possible.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES/JS
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...AES/JS/SM
Marine...AES/JS/SM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
