NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
261
FXUS61 KCAR 241829
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
129 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the region tonight. A small area
of low pressure will cross the north Christmas day followed by high
pressure building in Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will
remain over the area Saturday into Sunday followed by low pressure
on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
1) Light snow areawide late tonight and Christmas morning
2) Gusty winds with blowing snow especially in open areas Thursday night
3) Bitter cold with wind chills approaching -10F to -20F late Thursday night
This Afternoon...
Snow has tapered off for all but a few flurries Downeast. Snow
was minimal in far NE/E Maine with around an inch or less, but
areas from Greenville to Bangor to Bar Harbor picked up 4-8
inches of fluffy snow. The pales in comparison to areas around
Brunswick and Lewiston/Auburn, where as much as about 18 inches
fell. Most areas are seeing some sun and diminishing winds as
high pressure briefly builds in. It`s cold with temperatures in
the mid teens to low 20s.
Key Message 1...
We are looking at a quick-hitting, minor 1-3 inch snow event
late tonight into Christmas morning from a weak upper trough and
weak surface low moving through from NW to SE. Snow starts in
the pre-dawn hours most places, except around dawn near the
coast, as it develops from NW to SE. Snow will end quickly
around late Christmas morning. One thing to keep an eye on with
this system is snow ratios. This looks like a very fluffy, low
water content snow with high snow ratios. We are going for
17-20:1 ratios, but am concerned that it could be even fluffier
than that when looking at the forecast model soundings. We are
going with 1-3 inches, with generally the higher totals toward
the New Brunswick border and lighter totals further west. That
said, can`t rule out a few places getting close to advisory
criteria especially if the dendritic growth is optimized and
snow ratios are fluffier than forecast. Very little wind with
the falling snow, but winds pick up afterward. See next key
message.
Key Message 2...
A few hours after the snow ends, winds increase significantly
from the NW as cold air advection kicks in. Winds really ramp up
late Christmas afternoon and remain gusty through Thursday
night. Expect gusts to top out around 30-35 mph. Don`t expect
tree/powerline damage, but do expect a good amount of blowing
snow thanks especially to the good amount of fluffy, blowable
snow on the ground from the Christmas morning storm and from
today`s storm for western portions of the area. Increased
blowing snow significantly, with patchy blowing snow for most
areas and areas of blowing snow for agricultural areas of the
north. Don`t expect the blowing snow to be bad enough to warrant
advisories or warnings, but it will be impactful. Blowing snow
should linger into Friday morning and then dissipate by about
midday Friday. Confidence in blowing snow occurring is high, but
lower confidence in just had bad it will be. Tentatively
thinking that the winds not being too extreme (gusts only
topping out 30-35 mph) will keep this from being a high-end
blowing/drifting event.
Key Message 3...
Strong cold advection late Thursday into Thursday night.
Temperatures late Thursday night will be down to 5 below to 5
above, and wind chills to about 20 below in the north and 10
below to 20 below elsewhere. This, coupled with the blowing
snow, will make travel quite hazardous Thursday night and early
Friday. High confidence in wind chill values for Thursday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Cold, below normal, temperatures continue through Saturday
night. Lows in the single digits over the Downeast/Bangor region
and in the negative single digits over northern Maine.
Key Message 1...
On Friday, a lingering pressure gradient as the high builds in
from the west will keep winds breezy through the morning which
may result in below 0 wind chills early. Even as winds relax by
the afternoon temperatures in the single digits over the north
and teens further south will make for some very cold conditions.
While winds remain light through the weekend, high pressure
sticking around will mean cold, below normal, temperatures will
persist into Saturday night. Currently expecting the coldest
night to be Friday night where lows should dip to near zero or
the negative single digits over the area with the exception of
the coast which is likely to stay a bit warmer.
Currently not expecting either Friday or Saturday night to be a
strong radiational cooling night where there would be concerns
about lows bottoming out well below guidance. Currently appears
that enough of a pressure gradient will favor some mixing over
most areas and some clouds are likely to stick around Friday
night, especially over south/central areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Potential significant winter storm early next week
Key Message 1...
Models are expressing confidence on another winter storm
impacting the region in the Sunday evening through Monday night
time frame. Low pressure is likely to strengthen over the Great
Lakes region and move northeast, eventually passing just north
of Maine. Most guidance shows secondary cyclogenesis occurring
as the low moves offshore but models are split in how, when, and
where this will occur. If secondary cyclogenesis occurs just
south of the area and is strong this is likely to keep
precipitation as snow and a more impactful storm would be
expected. If secondary cyclogenesis occurs further north and/or
is weaker this will favor stronger southerly flow and warm air
advection that may allow more rain, and possibly some mixed
precip, to advance north of the Bangor region. Additionally,
there are still some discrepancies in timing. Most guidance has
slowed down such that precipitation does not enter the region
until at least Sunday evening, however, some ensemble members
show the storm not moving in until Monday morning. Will need to
continue to wait for subsequent model runs to provide
additional clarity.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR this afternoon into this evening. Late tonight and Christmas
morning, snow develops from NW to SE. This snow will bring
predominant MVFR conditions with a chance of brief IFR. Expect
fairly uniform conditions from northern to southern terminals.
Little wind with the snow. Snow ends roughly 14-16z Thursday,
then conditions should improve to VFR Downeast (BHB/BGR) but
should remain MVFR in the north due to cigs. VFR BHB/BGR into
Thursday night, with either MVFR or VFR for northern TAF sites.
Winds from the NW increase after 20z Thursday, with winds
Thursday night being sustained around 15 kts with gusts around
25 kts at all sites. There could be blowing snow, at any TAF
site, but confidence is low on whether it will be enough to
limit visibility. Best chance of BLSN limiting visibility is at
CAR/FVE Thursday night.
SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
early, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts by the evening.
Friday night-Sunday...VFR. Winds N/NW around 5 kts.
Sunday night...VFR decreasing to MVFR with snow for northern
terminals and rain/snow for southern terminals. Light and
variable winds.
Monday...IFR with snow for northern terminals and rain/snow for
southern terminals. E wind 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions quieting down tonight, but high enough
confidence in NW gales Thursday night to go ahead and issue a
gale warning. Also enough confidence in moderate freezing spray
to go ahead and issue a freezing spray advisory.
SHORT TERM: Winds decrease below gales by mid Friday morning and
below small craft advisory conditions Friday night. Winds and
seas below SCA criteria through Sunday then increase above
criteria Sunday night. Gales possible Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
ANZ050>052.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST
Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TF
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...TF/SM
Marine...TF/SM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
