NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
060
FXUS61 KCAR 230657
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
257 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Much colder temperatures expected Friday night into the
weekend. NBM has trended significantly colder.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Active weather pattern for mid to late week with multiple
precipitation chances, below normal temperatures and the
potential to impact travel.
- Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to spread across
the region next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern for mid to late week
with multiple precipitation chances, below normal temperatures
and the potential to impact travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Overall pattern...An anomalous 500mb ridge remains over the
desert southwest resulting in a significant ridge over the
Rockies. This is as a result of the strong +AO/NAO and -PNA
pattern over the CONUS. This is resulting in a fast semi-zonal
pattern over the Northeast with occasional dips of the jet
stream for mid to late week as the eastern trof develops.
Wednesday night into Thursday...Shortwave energy will ride the
jet into New England. Surface high pressure will settle well
southeast of the Gulf of Maine so a warm front will lift north
ahead of an approaching cold front in Quebec. Expecting an
overrunning light precipitation to develop across the area.
Models continue to come into better agreement on precipitation
timing at night which gives a higher probability of snow versus
rain. Latest NBM has temperatures falling back into the teens
across the north with upper 20s to near 30F for the Central
Highlands to Downeast Coast. There remains some uncertainty on
exactly how much QPF will be available since this system will
not be as robust. However, probability of >1 inch of snow is now
up to 70-80 percent in the North Woods and St. John Valley with
40-50 percent for Presque Isle area and 25-35 percent between
Central Highlands to Houlton and Danforth areas with 1 inch are >50 percent now across Northern
Maine north and west of I-95 with only around 25 percent for
Bangor. Precipitation types and totals Thursday night into
Friday will be dependent on the eventual track and timing of the
low. Snow, a snow/rain mix, or rain all remain possible across
the forecast area dependent on the eventual track. The system
could impact the region anytime from the evening commute
Thursday to the morning commute Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing probability of modified Arctic air
to spread across the region next weekend helping limit ongoing
river ice decay.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AO ensemble modeling continues to show a trend towards AO
neutral by late month with pieces of Arctic air breaking off and
diving south through Canada. NBM along with several Canadian,
ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a long wave trof digging
over the Northeast by next weekend behind the departing system
mentioned above. NOAA Hysplit modeling for Saturday AM shows an
airmass originating from over the Arctic Ocean approx 700mi
north of Alaska at 81 degrees N latitude. NBM has trended much
colder with higher probability of below zero temperatures across
the north for Saturday morning. Saturday during the day will be
significantly below normal but with the late March sun angle
still expecting 32F for Bangor Region into the Downeast. Across
the North low to mid 20s. Another cold night Saturday night into
Sunday as surface high settles to our south with the long wave
trof overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Today...MVFR with occasional breaks of VFR. Winds NE around 10
kt.
Tonight...MVFR becoming VFR all sites early this evening. N
wind around 5 kt.
Tuesday...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming W.
Tuesday night...VFR. SW winds around 5kt.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow or rain/snow mix northern
terms. W winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.
Wednesday night...MVFR with possible IFR/LIFR. -SN north.
RA/SN for BGR and BHB. S-SW winds 5-10kt.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR cigs. -SHSN north and -SHRA south. SW winds
5-10kt.
Thursday night...MVFR/IFR with LIFR possible. -SN north, RA/SN
south. SW shifting NW winds 5-15kt gusts up to 20kt.
Friday...AM IFR/LIFR becoming VFR/MVFR. NW winds 10-15kt with
higher gusts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
NE winds will increase to a gale across the offshore waters today
and a SCA in the intracoastal waters. Winds will gradually diminish
to SCA tonight then drop below SCA on Tuesday. Seas will be up to 8
ft today, 7 ft tonight and 6 ft on Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Wednesday especially on
the Coastal Waters. SCA conditions Wednesday night for all
waters with SW Gales possible on the Coastal Waters. SCA
conditions expected Thursday into Friday with another storm
system.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
