NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
409
FXUS61 KCAR 241501
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1001 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
10am update...
SCA extended on the intracoastals waters, and now in place on
the coastal waters. More information found in the Marine section
below.
550 am update...
Gale Warning has been dropped to a Small Craft Advisory on the
intracoastal zone.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating snow for Downeast on Wednesday may impact travel for
the evening commute.
2) Snow showers possible across the north on Thursday may briefly
coat roads and result in reduced visibility at times.
3) A weak occluded front crossing the north may bring some light
snow to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the
Saturday evening commute.
4) Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in frigid
temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the first week of
March.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Accumulating snow for Downeast on Wednesday may
impact travel for the evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure system approaching from the northwest will likely
result in weak triple point developing along the coast on Wednesday
afternoon. Low will result in enhanced convergence over Downeast
with snowfall accumulations anywhere from 1-3 inches over coastal
and interior Downeast. Rain may mix with snow along the coast and
outer islands with warm advection just ahead of the weak surface low
moving in late in the afternoon. Accumulating snow will come to an
end late Wednesday evening as system moves into NB.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers possible across the north on Thursday
may briefly coat roads and result in reduced visibility at times.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will be lifting out to the northeast on Thursday as
strong cold advection follows with gusty westerly winds. The cold
air may surge into the mid levels a bit quicker than it does in the
low levels resulting in some steep lapse rates up to 6K ft and some
minor instability. This could result in a few snow showers,
especially from the Northern Highlands east across east central
areas. Any snow showers could briefly cover the roads and cause
reduced visibility. Falling temperatures late in the day may result
in some icy patches as wet surfaces freeze.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A weak occluded front crossing the north may bring
some light snow to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. This may create some travels difficulties during
the Saturday evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure tracking from the James Bay region of Canada into
central Quebec on Saturday will pull an occluded front toward our
region Saturday afternoon. A tight gradient between the approaching
front and high pressure moving off to the southeast will bring
strong gusty southerly winds ahead of the front. This will advect
warmer air up from the south with high temperatures across most of
the area making a run for 40. As light precipitation begins Saturday
afternoon, a bit of rain may mix in with some snow. Boundary layer
temperatures should then become cold enough for mainly snow, at
least over the north and the highlands, late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. Currently, it looks like only a light accumulation
of snow is likely. The slushy wet snow may result in some slippery
roads over northern and western areas.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result
in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the
first week in March.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
An Arctic front is expected to cross the area on Sunday followed by
a fresh surge of Arctic air. Highs Sunday from near 20 north to the
low to mid 30s Downeast on Sunday will be followed by falling
temperatures Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Lows Sunday night
will drop to around 10 below north and around zero Downeast with
wind chills in the 20s below and teens below early Monday morning.
Highs Monday from the low teens north to the low 20s Downeast will
be around 15 degrees below normal for the beginning of March. Gusty
winds will continue to combine with the frigid temperatures to
result in bitter cold wind chills and the risk of frostbite on
exposed skin.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions for all terminals with tempo MVFR for the next
several hours at FVE. Main impact will be DRSN over the runways
this morning before nw winds diminish enough by afternoon.
NW winds gust at all terminals between 20-30kts today before
relaxing after 22z this afternoon.
Conditions diminish to MVFR/IFR Wednesday morning with snow
moving in from the west. May see BHB mix with rain late in the
day Wednesday. Southerly winds increase to between 5-10kts on
Wednesday.
Wednesday night...IFR north and MVFR south. SW wind around 5 kt.
Thursday...MVFR north except briefly IFR in any snow showers. VFR
south. W wind around 10 kt with high gusts.
Thursday night...VFR. W winds around 5 kt north and NW winds
around 5 kt across the south.
Friday...Friday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.
Friday night...VFR possibly dropping to MVFR at times north and VFR
south. N wind around 5 kt.
Saturday...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR north. VFR dropping to MVFR
south. S wind 10 to 15 kt. SW wind shear likely at 2K ft.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds should rapidly drop below 25kts this afternoon but seas
will remain elevated above 5ft through late evening. A brief
break in SCA condition Wednesday morning before increasing
Wednesday afternoon.
A SCA may be needed Wednesday evening for wind gusts up to 25
kt. A SCA may be needed again Saturday into Saturday night for
gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may need to continue Sunday and Monday
with an increased chance for freezing spray as Arctic air moves
in.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/MB/21
AVIATION...AES/MB/21
MARINE...AES/MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
