NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
912
FXUS61 KCAR 230706
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
206 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Added slight chance and chance pops for snow showers central
and north today with the highest pops early to mid afternoon
across east central areas.
-Increased confidence in significant snowfall possible along
Downeast and coastal areas Sunday night into Monday
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow showers and isolated heavier snow squalls may cause brief
whiteout conditions and slick travel today.
2) Frigid Arctic air will surge into the area later today into
the coming weekend bringing bitter cold wind chills.
3) Increased confidence in significant winter storm to impact
Downeast Maine Sunday night through Monday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow showers and isolated heavier snow squalls may
cause brief whiteout conditions and slick travel today.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air will begin surging into the area today. The cold air
will move in more quickly aloft than at the low levels
resulting in some steep lapse rates up to 10K ft and CAPES up to
50 J/KG. A bit of solar heating during the midday may add to
the instability. Snow showers will be mostly likely through the
early to mid afternoon from the Central Highlands east across
east central areas but could occur anywhere. Strong gusty winds
being pulled down from aloft may result in blowing snow and
isolated brief whiteout conditions. Falling temperatures during
and after snow showers and squalls could result in any dampness
on the roads freezing and producing slippery conditions. The
combination of slippery road surfaces, and poor visibility due
to blowing snow, can be especially hazardous due to the
potential that a traveler will be unable to see an obstruction
ahead until its too late to be able to stop in time, or be
unable to stop due to the slippery roads. Any snow showers or
squalls should taper off late today as the colder drier air
continues to overspread the area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid Arctic air will surge into the area later
today into the coming weekend bringing bitter cold wind chills.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The combination of bitter cold Arctic air and strong gusty
winds will produce dangerously cold wind chills tonight into the
weekend. By early Saturday morning westerly winds 10 to 15 mph
gusting to 25 mph combined with temperatures from the teens
below north to the single digits below Downeast will result in
wind chills from the 30s below across the north to the 20s below
Downeast. The frigid wind chills will continue through the day
on Saturday. The extreme cold will bring with it the risk of
hypothermia and possible frostbite on unprotected skin.
Similar wind chill values could occur on Saturday night as
well, -30 to -40 in the north and west, -30 to -25 in the
Central Highlands, and around -25 to -20 in the Bangor and
Downeast regions. There is a chance for clearing to occur
overnight, and alongside lighter winds, which would cause
temperatures to plummet quickly. Highs on Sunday will be around
0 in the north, single digits in Central Highlands, and around
10 around Bangor region to Downeast. Wind chills will improve
Sunday night, but not by much. Northern Maine expecting -20 to
-15 chills, central Maine around -15 to -10, and Downeast around
-10 to -5. A warming trend is expected Monday onwards.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Increased confidence in significant winter
storm to impact Downeast Maine Sunday night through Monday
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Models continue to show potential for low pressure system
moving through the mid-Atlantic this weekend to strengthen over
the maritimes. For the past few days, there has been a northerly
trend in the models with this low pressure system, bringing the
low closer to the mainland when it goes over the Gulf of Maine.
Naturally, this increases snowfall across the CWA. There is
increased confidence in at least warning level snowfall (at
least 6 inches) in the Downeast and coastal regions. Timing of
this system seems to generally have precipitation moving in by
midnight on Monday, moving from the southwest to the northeast.
QPF and PWAT values have been increasing with the strengthening
low trend as well, further favoring the possibility of decent
snowfall anticipated along the coast. Cold arctic air helps to
keep snow ratios generally around 20:1, for light and fluffy
snow throughout northern and eastern Maine. Left exit region of
an impressive upper level jet provides opportunity for decent
lift that could result in periods of heavier snow showers, which
could further ramp up snow totals. The main questions to
monitor currently are 1) how far north into the Gulf of Maine
will this low pressure system go, and in turn 2) how much snow
can make it into central and northern Maine? Currently,
anticipating at least a few inches to reach central and northern
Maine. This will be a storm to monitor as more model runs
continue to pick up on the behavior of this low pressure system.
Some models do want to have significant snowfall falling
everywhere across northern and eastern Maine, but it is too
early to be confident in that, as this result is heavily going
to depend on the location of the low pressure system. Best
confidence is that higher snow totals with be around Downeast
and coastal Maine. As a result of this, expect some travel
disruptions Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today...VFR conditions all sites with the possible exception of a
snow shower or squall briefly resulting in MVFR or isolated IFR
conditions across the north during the early to mid afternoon. Winds
W 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.
Tonight...VFR conditions, possibly dropping to MVFR at times over
the far north. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.
Saturday...VFR conditions. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt gusting to
25 kt.
Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. W/NW winds 5 to 10 kts
with gusts around 15kts overnight, diminishing to around 5 kts
Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday...Becoming MVFR and likely IFR at
southern terminals with snow. VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR Monday
at northern terminals with snow. N/NE winds increasing to 5 to
10 kts.
Monday night through Tuesday...IFR/MVFR conditions improve to
VFR/MVFR. N winds 5 to 10 kts Monday night, becoming W and 10
to 15 kts Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A gale warning will be up today and tonight for W to NW winds
gusting up to 40 kt. Winds will drop below gale on Saturday. A heavy
freezing spray warning will be up from late this evening through
Saturday for heavy ice riming conditions in the wind and extreme
cold.
Small Craft conditions anticipated Saturday night into Sunday,
when winds ramp back up to Gale force on Monday morning. Heavy
freezing spray warning continues into Sunday morning, and then
relaxes back down to light freezing spray on Sunday. Could
become moderate again by Sunday night into Monday. Winds from
the NW Saturday night night, shifting to the northeast by Sunday
night. Chance for snowfall Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM
EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/ASB
AVIATION...MB/ASB
MARINE...MB/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
