NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
968
FXUS61 KCAR 201111
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
711 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-The heaviest snow has shifted north Friday night into Saturday
and there is increased confidence in rain mixing with the snow
along the coast
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A period of rain and snow is expected Downeast this evening
into tonight with snow over the north tonight into Saturday.
Light accumulations are expected which may pose some minor
travel difficulties.
2) Snow for Downeast Sunday and Sunday night, impacting the
Monday morning commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A period of rain and snow is expected Downeast
this evening into tonight with snow over the north tonight into
Saturday. Light accumulations are expected which may pose some
minor travel difficulties
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Surface low pressure will develop within the left exit region
of a strong upper level jet maxima across southern Ontario and
move east-southeast across New Hampshire into the southern half
of Maine Friday night. Precipitation should begin as mostly snow
Downeast this evening and then transition to a mix of rain and
snow early tonight. Some areas along the coast are likely to see
a changeover to plain rain after midnight. Reduced SLRs from the
NBM as these seemed too high given the relatively warm profiles
and surface temperatures near or above freezing. SLRs below 10
to 1 are expected Downeast making for a wet snow. Still some
uncertainty in surface temperatures and if they can stay cold
but thinking the snow should be heavy enough to cool the low-
levels to the wet bulb temperature. North of Washington county,
precipitation should be all snow and a bit drier with ratios
around 10 to 1. The area of greatest snowfall is currently
expected across southern Piscataquis, central Penobscot, and
northern Washington county. Snow should stick around throughout
much of the day in the north as an upper-level shortwave trough
moves in from the west. Some strong snow showers are also
possible in the afternoon over the north as there is some weak
instability and winds up to 30 kts in the mixed layer but lift
may be minimal.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow for Downeast Sunday and Sunday night, impacting
the Monday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will be moving in from the upr Midwest Saturday night.
Dry air associated with high pressure nosing down from Canada will
likely keep precipitation out of most of the area until closer to
daybreak on Sunday. How much the high pressure impacts the far north
seeing any precipitation on Sunday remains up in the air but have
lowered pops to just slight chance acrs nrn Aroostook during the
day. Snow looks to fall in the Bangor Region into Downeast with some
rain mixing in during the afternoon as temps climb into the middle
30s. Overall snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches south of a Dover-
Foxcroft to Topsfield line on Sunday and Sunday night.
As the low heads to the south of Nova Scotia during the day on
Monday, guidance is indicating s/wv trof deepening to our north and
west. This may lead to an inverted trof setting up across the area
on Monday bringing additional snow accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Today...VFR at all terminals today, before decreasing to MVFR
late in the afternoon. W/SW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Tonight...Conditions deteriorate to IFR at southern terminals
by 00z and at northern terminals between 01 and 04z. Mainly a
mix of rain and snow at southern terminals with more rain at
BHB, especially after 03z. Light to moderate snow at northern
terminals. Precipitation clears out late at southern terminals
but light snow should stick around at northern terminals. SE
winds 5 to 10 kts become N/NW late at southern terminals. N/NE
winds 5 to 10 kts at northern terminals.
Saturday...Some MVFR early at southern terminals but otherwise
VFR. MVFR in snow showers should stick around through mid-
afternoon at northern terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 20-25 kts.
Saturday night...Mainly VFR. NW 5-15kts.
Sunday-Sunday night...VFR north, MVFR/IFR Downeast terminals in
snow. N 5-10kts northern terminals and S 5-10kts Downeast on Sunday,
becoming NNE 5-10kts Sunday night.
Monday...MVFR/IFR in snow Downeast terminals, mainly VFR north. N 5-
15kts.
Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. NNW 5-10kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Below SCA conditions today with seas and gusts above criteria
this evening through Saturday. A 30% chance of gale conditions
on the coastal waters tonight. Seas peak at 5 to 8 ft on the
coastal waters and 3 to 5 ft on the intracoastal waters.
Winds and seas remain above SCA levels Saturday night
before diminishing. Small craft conditions return after midnight
Sunday night with NNE winds around marginal gales Monday morning and
into the evening hours. Seas climb to between 6 to 9 feet on Monday
and remain elevated before dropping to near/below SCA levels Tuesday
afternoon. Wind gusts diminish below 25kts Tuesday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
