NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
393
FXUS61 KCAR 101012
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
512 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the area today, then moves north of the
region Tuesday. Upper level disturbances will cross the region
Wednesday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5 AM Update: The winter weather advisory has been cancelled for
central Piscataquis, northern Penobscot, and southern Aroostook
counties as temperatures have lifted above freezing and precip
is now plain rain while any wintry accumulation begins to melt.
Wintry mix will continue up through northern Aroostook for the
next couple of hours.
Previous Discussion:
A warm front continues to slowly lift northwards through the
forecast area this morning, with warm air advection leading to
temperatures quickly lifting into the upper 40s near the coast,
and temperatures just beginning to lift above freezing in the
north. Along the warm front boundary, a wintry mix complete with
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is found, but there is a quick
changeover to plain rain as temperatures begin to quickly warm.
Temperatures may not lift quite as quickly in the north early
this morning due to local cold air damming, but this will shift
as the morning wears on.
Gusty winds early this morning will begin to taper off through
the day today as the low center moves closer to the area,
tracking along the coast as it moves north and east. Under the
center of the low, enough instability will exist that there is a
slight chance for thunder due to around 200 to 300 J/kg of
elevated CAPE. The most likely location for any lightning will
be close to the low center: along the coast and up through
Washington county this afternoon into this evening.
Stratiform rain through the day today will give way to scattered
rain showers, tapering to drier weather overnight tonight. More
mild temperatures are in store tonight due to the previous warm
air advection with lows in the 30s over most of the forecast
area. As the upper level trough remains over the area, unsettled
weather continues, and showers may return through the day on
Tuesday. These showers may start as rain early Tuesday
afternoon, then could transition to snow over most of the
forecast area as temperatures begin to drop into Tuesday
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night: The low pressure system will exit over the
maritimes. As the surface ridge approaches, the question will be
how gusty the winds become. Models show double digit pressure
gradients across the state. Decided to increase winds across the
region through the night giving localized 40 mph gusts. The
cold W winds should bring much cooler temps into the 20s. Thus
any remaining showers on the backside of the low will be snow
showers.
Wednesday: The weak surface ridge should drive down WSW winds.
The next surface trof is expected to move in towards the end of
the day. The cool airmass should push temps into the upper 30s
across the region.
Wednesday night: The upper level trof should swing through a
decaying low pressure system. This is expected to bring snow
showers across the north and rain showers to the south. Though
the region should see light S flow, to remaining cool airmass
should keep temps 20s towards the end of the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trof starts to exit over the waters as the upper
level ridge over the Midwest progresses to the east. However,
the surface high pressure is expected to be weaker than the
exiting trof, thus the exiting surface low on Thursday is
expected to slightly retrograde, bringing precip to the region
through the weekend. Expect below normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions continue today. LLWS early this
morning will give way to gusty winds later this morning. PL/FZRA
early this morning will quickly give way to RA through the rest
of the day. Slight chance for thunder, especially at coastal
terminals. MVFR/IFR cigs through tonight, improving towards VFR
from south to north through the day on Tuesday. E winds 5 to 10
kts gusting 20 to 25 kts early today become light and variable
tonight, shifting SW at 10 to 15 kts on Tuesday with gusts to 20
kts.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow
showers early. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 30
knots.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A slight
chance of rain showers Downeast. West/northwest winds around 10
knots.
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers
north. VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High end small craft advisory conditions continue
through the early morning hours with a few gusts to 35 kts and
seas 6 to 9 ft. Winds will settle through the day today, falling
below SCA criteria this afternoon. Seas will slow to react,
with waves 5 to 7 ft on the coastal waters through tonight and
the day on Tuesday. Winds will begin to increase towards 35 to
40 kts once more Tuesday afternoon. Rain today will taper off
tonight, but showers will return on Tuesday with the next storm
system.
SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch remains for Tuesday night. Winds and
seas should decrease to SCA on Wednesday. SCA winds return late
Friday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
MEZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
ANZ050>052.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
