NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
054
FXUS61 KCAR 281130
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
630 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased sky cover this morning across the region. Added in
slight chance pops into ern zones this afternoon ahead of pre-
frontal trough.
Update for 12z aviation discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temps climb to 10 degrees above normal this afternoon ahead
of an Arctic front moving through overnight. Snow and rain
showers occurring ahead of the front, with squalls possible with
any snow showers, reducing visibilities.
2) Rapidly falling temps may lead to black ice over the north
tonight. This will create hazardous travel conditions on
untreated roadways.
3) Frigid Arctic air will be in place early Monday morning with
wind chills down to the mid 20s below over parts of the north
and the low teens below south bringing the risk of hypothermia
and frostbite.
4) A fast moving weather system tracking along our coast
Tuesday night into early Wednesday may bring a few inches of
snow with the best chance for snow across southern areas. This
may result in some slippery and snow covered roads for the
Wednesday morning commute.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temps climb to 10 degrees above normal this
afternoon ahead of an Arctic front moving through overnight.
Snow and rain showers occurring ahead of the front, with squalls
possible with any snow showers, reducing visibilities.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Southerly winds will bring waa to the region this morning with
LLJ of 50-60kts developing. Temps will begin to rise after 09z
this morning with highs topping out around 40F acrs the north
and in the lwr 40s over Downeast.
Pre-frontal trough currently located from James Bay down into
central Indiana will continue to move east this morning. Precip
just ahead of this trough axis will move into the North Woods
around 15z this morning. Precip will be a rain/snow mix as it
moves in, going to mostly rain as temps warm before changing
back over to snow in the evening hours just ahead of the main
Arctic front. Plenty of instability exists in the afternoon,
possibly leading to convective showers at times. Whether the
showers will be rain or snow showers mainly depends on the time
of day.
At this time the snow squall parameter is lighting up over the
northwest around 21z, ahead of the Arctic front. However,
whether showers will be rain or snow still remains in question.
If lift is strong enough it is feasible that precip could fall
as snow showers but for the most part expect that rain showers
will be the dominant ptype in the afternoon. That being said
with southerly winds gusting to between 25-30 mph cannot
completely rule out the chance for a brief snow squall over the
north late this afternoon and evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Rapidly falling temps may lead to black ice
over the north tonight. This will create hazardous travel
conditions on untreated roadways.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
he Arctic front moves through tonight with temps rapidly
falling below freezing this evening. This may lead to any
standing water freezing on untreated roadways. Travelers should
be alert to black ice tonight. Temps likely to fall into the
single digits by daybreak across the north and into the upr
teens/around 20 further south.
Expect that Sunday will see temperatures remaining below
freezing over the entire CWA. Northern Aroostook likely to see
highs in the lower teens, which is 15-20 degrees below normal.
Wind chill temperatures may "warm" to zero across the north
Sunday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Frigid Arctic air will be in place early Monday
morning with wind chills down to the mid 20s below over parts
of the north and the low teens below south bringing the risk of
hypothermia and frostbite.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Bitter cold Arctic air will be in place Sunday night with
temperatures early Sunday evening already down to near zero over the
northwest and 20 along the coast. A clear sky and dry air will
allow the air to continue cooling overnight with lows by morning
ranging from the mid teens below northwest and near zero Downeast. A
light northwesterly wind will add to the chill producing wind chills
from the mid 20s below north to the low teens below Downeast. The
bitter cold weather will bring with it the risk of hypothermia and
frostbite. It is advised that you dress in layers and protect hands
and face from the cold. Sunshine will bring some moderation in
temperatures on Monday. However, highs from near 10 over the far
north to near 20 by the coast will be around 15 degrees below normal
for early March.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A fast moving weather system tracking along our
coast Tuesday night into early Wednesday may bring a few inches
of snow with the best chance for snow across southern areas.
This may result in some slippery and snow covered roads for the
Wednesday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A small, fast moving low will approach from the Great Lake on
Tuesday and spread snow across the area, mainly south, Tuesday
night. The snow may mix with, or change to rain along the Downeast
coast. Snow will continue overnight with a few inches possible
across interior Downeast and the lower Penobscot Valley with only a
little light snow possible across the north. The timing of this
system will likely result in slippery and slushy roads across the
greater Bangor area and Downeast for the Wednesday morning
commute. This fast moving system will continue away to the east
during the day on Wednesday. By midday Wednesday most roads will
probably just be wet as high temperatures make a run for the
low 40s over the south and low to mid 30s across the north.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today...IFR cigs briefly this morning before improving to MVFR
within 1-2 hours. VFR expected at BGR and BHB remainder of the
day.
Aroostook terminals improve to MVFR this morning before VFR late
morning. FVE, CAR and PQI drop to MVFR this afternoon in a
rain/snow mix but quickly improve to VFR upon frontal passage
this evening.
South 10-20kts gusting 25-30kts today.
LLWS at Aroostook terminals this morning through this afternoon
at FL020.
Tonight...VFR. NW 5-15kts.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR, with occasional IFR in scattered snow showers.
N 5-15kts.
Sunday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.
Monday...VFR, possibly dropping to MVFR over the north late. W wind
around 10 kt.
Monday night...VFR. SW wind around 5 kt.
Tuesday...MVFR north. VFR dropping to MVFR south. SW wind 10 to 15
kt.
Tuesday night...MVFR north. IFR south in snow. SW wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday...MVFR north early, improving to VFR. IFR south early,
improving to VFR. W wind around 10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas remain above 5ft today before dropping below small craft
levels this evening over the intracoastal waters and after
midnight tonight over the outer waters. Southerly winds will be
gusting above SCA levels this afternoon before diminishing this
evening. North winds should begin to approach small craft again
on Sunday afternoon over the outer waters.
A strong SCA, and possibly a gale for the offshore waters, will be
needed Sunday night for gusty N winds. Moderate freezing spray is
expected Sunday night through Monday morning. Winds will drop below
SCA Monday. A SCA then a gale may be needed Tuesday into Tuesday
night for SW winds gusting up to 35 kt. Winds should drop below gale
and then below SCA on Wednesday. Seas will be up to 5 ft Sunday
night dropping to 3 ft Monday. Seas will build back up to 6 ft
Tuesday and 7 ft Tuesday night, then back to 5 to 6 ft on
Wednesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
