NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
735
FXUS61 KCAR 030736
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
236 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Lowered temperatures and dew points a couple degrees tonight
into Wednesday AM to account for wet bulb process at
precipitation start time.
- Raised QPF from previous forecast due to better agreement on
track of the low closer to the Downeast Coast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet snow likely tonight into Wednesday AM for the Central
Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast Coast. Minor travel
impacts possible mainly between 8PM and 6AM.
2) Light snow possible Thursday and Friday with some minor travel
difficulties possible.
3) Warming trend and above normal temperatures for the weekend along
with the potential for a wintry mix changing to rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet snow likely tonight into Wednesday AM for
the Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast Coast. Minor
travel impacts possible mainly between 8PM and 6AM.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Later today a weak open 500mb shortwave will track east out of
the Great Lakes towards New England. Weak upper level divergence
over Southern New England develops as the northern stream
shortwave trough partially phases with the subtropical jet. This
will give way to surface convergence and allow a surface low to
develop near Boston this evening. Model guidance remains in
rather good agreement of a surface low track over the northern
part of the Gulf of Maine from Boston area to Digby, Nova Scotia
area. There is decent agreement for about a quarter to third of
an inch of QPF across Downeast Maine except potentially up to
0.5 at the shoreline falling mainly as all snow. Will see the
potential of some rain mixing in on MDI and other islands but
better agreement that the Washington County coast remains all
snow. This will be a heavy, wet snow with snow ratios between 8
and 11 to 1 anticipated, producing roughly 2 to 4 inches of
snow. There remains some uncertainty with how quickly the low
deepens, and there is potential for a stronger low that could
bring slightly more QPF northward. ECMWF deepens the low faster
in the Gulf of Maine with slightly more improved upper level
divergence with the phasing. GFS deepens the low but too late
while the RRFS is one of the weaker but also too far south
models.
What this comes down too...is we cannot rule out isolated
locations potentially seeing advisory level snow amounts of 4-5
inches. HREF probabilities remain at about a 20 to 30 percent
chance of at least 4 inches of snow Downeast while NBM
probabilities have increased to 30 to 45 percent chance. This
means there remains a chance that advisories may be needed with
the forecast package update this afternoon if additionally
higher QPF looks likely. Overall the forecast snow totals remain
good with 1-3 inches for the Central Highlands, Northern
Washington County and Bangor Region. Looking at 2-4 inches for
interior Downeast along the Airline (Route 9) east to
Passamaquoddy Bay. For the Route 1 area of Coastal Hancock to
Washington County to the shoreline cannot rule out those
isolated higher numbers but generally 2-4 inches here as well.
In terms of impacts...expecting slippery travel mainly from 8PM
this evening through 6AM Wednesday AM. Winds will be light so
not expecting heavy wet snow to impact the tree limbs. Snow
covered and slushy roads are likely for the Wednesday morning
commute, especially early on before temperatures warm well above
freezing during the day Wednesday. Expect a lot of melting
Wednesday as temperatures soar into the 40s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow possible Thursday and Friday with
some minor travel difficulties possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Two potential shots of light snow during this period. Cold
front sinks down from the north Wednesday night through early
Thursday. Some light snow is possible, mainly across far
northern areas with this feature, as the front crosses the
region. Some minor travel difficulties are possible for the
Thursday morning commute, mainly affecting the St. John valley
region.
Another system could bring some snow to the region Thursday night
and Friday. Confidence is below average with regard to this system.
It is possible that the strong high to the north across Quebec could
suppress this system to our south. The best chances of seeing
any snowfall with this system would be across Downeast areas,
particularly the coastal region.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming trend and above normal temperatures for
the weekend along with the potential for a wintry mix changing
to rain.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are expected to surpass the 40
degree mark across the region with the passage of a warm front. Some
snow or wintry mix is possible with the passage of the warm front
later Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, southerly
winds will transport much warmer air across the entire forecast,
with precipitation changing to all rain. At this point, we are
not expecting significant rainfall. But the combination of the
warm temperatures and rainfall will lead to some snowmelt. Some
places mainly in southern portions of the area possibly losing
all or nearly all of their snowpack. The potential for river,
lake/pond ice decay/rot is also there, especially Downeast. We
don`t expect river ice to flush out Downeast though, and in the
north, the river ice should hold completely through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This Morning before 12z...Northern Terms LLWS likely. For all
terms SKC-FEW250. Light and variable winds becoming S-SW around
5kt.
Today...VFR. SCT-BKN cigs developing this afternoon. S-SW winds
10-15kt gusting up to 25kt.
Tonight...IFR/LIFR southern terms with -SN. Brief RASN mix at
BHB possible but mainly -SN. S winds around 5-10kt. VFR/MVFR
northern terms with VCSH/-SHSN possible. Best chance of MVFR at
HUL with -SN. S winds around 5-10kt.
Wednesday...Becoming MVFR/VFR SCT-BKN cigs. Winds shift W in the
AM. W winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt possible.
Wednesday night...VFR, except MVFR or lower at the Aroostook
terminals in -SN after midnight.
Thursday...MVFR or lower at the Aroostook terminals in -SN, VFR
elsewhere.
Thursday night and Friday...VFR north, but low chance of MVFR
or lower in -SN at KBGR/KBHB.
Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. Wintry mix to rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 7AM this morning till 1AM
Wednesday for all of the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters. SW
winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and seas 3-6ft. Tonight rain
and snow develops with vsby less than 1nm at times. Winds shift
NW tonight and fall below SCA conditions. Precip will end and
vsby recover early Wednesday AM. SW winds tomorrow generally
less than 20kt and seas 3-5ft. Winds/seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels Wednesday night and then increase to SCA levels
Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TWD/JS
AVIATION...TWD/JS
MARINE...TWD/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
