NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
722
FXUS61 KCAR 132334
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
634 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure exits to the east this evening. Low pressure
tracks east of Nova Scotia Sunday. High pressure builds across
the region Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will track north of
the region Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Points:
* Light snowfall tonight through Sunday Downeast and into the
North Woods
* Cold wind chills Sunday night could dip below zero
Discussion:
The weak ridge of high pressure will continue to exit to the
east tonight, allowing for increasing cloud cover. A low
pressure system will move into the CWA during the day on Sunday,
bringing scattered snow showers to the region. The most likely
area for any accumulation from these snow showers will be on the
upslope side of higher terrain in the Central Highlands due to
the parent low approaching from the west, and along the coast
due to a developing coastal low. Total snowfall will be light,
with highest amounts being up to around an inch near the coast.
Cold temperatures will follow this low pressure system Sunday
night, with temperatures falling into the single digits to lower
teens across the forecast area. As winds begin to pick up under
the tightening pressure gradient aloft, wind chills late Sunday
night may dip below zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A northwest flow at both the surface and aloft will prevail on
Monday in the wake of low pressure exiting through the Canadian
Maritimes. It should be dry with partly sunny to mostly cloudy
conditions across the north and mainly sunny for the Bangor region
and Downeast. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will continue
below normal with a gusty northwest wind. Short wave crosses the
region Monday evening but it will remain dry. High pressure
builds back in for Tuesday with more dry northwest flow
expected. Afternoon highs Tuesday will be continued below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds increase Tuesday evening in advance of the next approaching
short wave and cold front from Quebec. It should be mainly dry
Tuesday night, although a few flurries not totally out of question
north. Expect mainly cloudy skies on Wednesday with the chance for
afternoon snow showers across northern areas as the cold front
nears. The cold front sweeps through Wednesday night with a
continued chance for snow showers north. High pressure builds
back in both surface and aloft for Thursday with dry weather
and seasonably cold conditions expected. Clouds once again will
be on the increase Thursday night as low pressure tracks well
to our northwest Thursday night. This will allow for a southerly
flow of milder air to surge northward out in advance of an
approaching cold front. Thus, expect precipitation Thursday
night to be in the form of rain for the Bangor region and
Downeast. Across northern areas, expect precipitation to begin
as snow and then transition to rain later at night as
temperatures continue to rise. Steadier precipitation will end
early Friday as the front sweeps to the east. High pressure
build back in for Friday night and Saturday. Afternoon highs on
Friday will be above normal and then back to below normal
levels by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight...
Conditions as of 0z are generally VFR, with localized MVFR
mainly toward BHB in isolated snow showers. Through the night,
look for a general lowering trend in ceilings, with a mix of
MVFR/low VFR ceilings as the night goes on. Not high confidence,
but think that FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL have the best shot at MVFR cigs
later tonight (FVE with the best shot of these four sites), and
put in predominant MVFR cigs in the TAFs for later in the night.
Other sites (BHB/BGR) could get MVFR later tonight, but less
than 50 percent confidence and kept out of TAFs through 12z.
Light winds tonight.
Sunday...
MVFR cigs most places in the AM hours, and generally VFR in the
afternoon. Light winds becoming NW up to 10 kts.
Sunday Night...Mainly MVFR cigs from HUL north, and mainly VFR
BGR/BHB. NW wind around 10 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Mon through Tue night...Mainly VFR. Gusty NW wind on Mon.
Wed and Wed night...MVFR possible north in scattered snow
showers, otherwise VFR.
Thu...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts over the coastal waters will briefly reach
25 to 30 kts this afternoon into this evening before tapering
off once again after midnight tonight while seas return to 3 to
5 ft. The intracoastal waters will also see an increase in
winds, but gusts will max out at around 20 kts tonight. A slight
improvement will allow for conditions across the waters to fall
below small craft advisory criteria into the day on Sunday,
before conditions will ramp back up to strong SCA conditions
across the waters Sunday night. There is a chance the coastal
waters could see gusts up to gales by late Sunday night. Cold
temperatures will couple with these winds Sunday night for the
development of light freezing spray.
SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are possible Monday into
Monday evening. SCA conditions are possible from Tuesday night
through late next week. Light freezing spray expected on
Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...AES/TF
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...AES/TF/TWD
Marine...AES/TF/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
