NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
714
FXUS61 KCAR 162312
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
712 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in at the surface through Friday as
an area of low pressure tracks southeast of Nova Scotia. This
high builds overhead Friday night through Saturday night, then
slowly slides to the east through Sunday night. A complex storm
system approaches from the west Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will continue to track out
into the open waters of the Atlantic through Friday as high
pressure slowly builds east.
Nighttime satellite imagery shows extensive low level clouds
continuing to wrap westward across the region from the Canadian
Maritimes around the low. Based on latest forecast soundings,
have gone with more cloud cover across the region into Friday,
especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast elements still looking
good.
See updated aviation section below.
previous discussion
Rain showers continue through Downeast Maine and portions of
northern Maine through the rest of the evening. Low pressure
continues to move out into the Atlantic to the southeast of Nova
Scotia. As the high pressure system to our west moves in,
pressure gradient between the two systems causes some continued
gusty north/northwest winds throughout Maine into the evening.
Showers have been, and will continue, to be light. Rain totals
generally around a quarter of an inch in eastern Maine, and
about a tenth of an inch in northern Maine. Mostly cloudy skies
tonight, trapping heat in the low-levels tonight. Overnight lows
in the 40s, and low-30s in the Northwoods.
High pressure continues to move east into Maine, with decent
ridging moving through the area, resulting in a calm and dry
weekend, with an increasing temperature trend generally in the
50s and 60s for Friday. Skies partially cloudy during the day,
becoming mostly clear by nighttime. Pressure gradient begins to
ease up on Friday, reducing wind gusts. With clear skies, light
winds, and high humidity, potential for some river valley fog
to develop. Colder overnight temperatures, in the low-to-mid 30s
in the north and upper 30s Downeast. Potential for some frost
in the northwestern portions of the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday, high pressure will dominate and mostly
clear skies and dry weather will return. Temperatures will be
on the cool side, under the influence of the cold pool aloft
before the return flow begins later on Sunday. Have lowered
temperatures slightly Saturday morning from NBM mean to account
for decoupling overnight. On Sunday, clouds will build in from
the west as warmer temperatures also develop with southwesterly
flow. This will raise daytime highs to between 60 and 65.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night, a cold front will approach from the west, moving
across the state on Monday. Timing has been in slight question
until recently, but it appears that the NBM blend may be a
little fast with the bulk of the forecast models trending
towards precip moving in early Monday morning. Thus, have slowed
current PoPs by about 6 hrs to bring the front in Monday
morning. The overall pattern has the longwave trough moving
eastward slowly between Tuesday and Thursday. This will keep
instability in the region and support another round of
precipitation moving through later in the week. Uncertainty is a
little greater with the second front, as it does also depend on
the track the surface low takes. Overall, this will move us
towards a wetter pattern through the end of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected at all terminals
overnight through midday Friday. There could be occasional
IFR ceilings at the Aroostook county terminals overnight.
Expect all terminals to be VFR by Friday afternoon. N wind
10 to 15 kt through Friday with occasional G20 kt.
Outlook for Friday night is VFR. N wind 5 to 10 kt.
SHORT TERM: Saturday - Saturday night: VFR across all
terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Sunday: Generally VFR across all terminals, though cigs will
begin to fall towards MVFR heading into Sun night. S winds 5 to
10 kts.
Monday: Cigs deteriorating to MVFR throughout the day. S/SE
winds at 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible during the day.
Monday night/Tuesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5 to 10
kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect through early
Friday morning for the outer-waters and a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for intra-coastal zones until through early
Friday morning.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are likley Friday into Friday
night for the outerwaters.
SHORT TERM: A brief period of small craft winds will return
Monday morning, but overall winds will remain less than 25 kts
through the period. Seas 3 to 5 feet becoming 4 to 6 feet
Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TWD/LF
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...TWD/LF/ASB
Marine...TWD/LF/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
