NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
354
FXUS61 KCAR 281844
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
244 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Increased snow showers across the north for Sunday.
-Slowed onset of precipitation on Tuesday, especially across
the North.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unseasonably cold temperatures continue through the weekend.
2) Snow North and a rain/snow mix elsewhere Tuesday morning,
transitions to a wintry mix across the North and rain elsewhere
Tuesday afternoon. This wintry mix could linger across portions
of the North into Wednesday morning, especially across the St
John Valley. This will impact the Tuesday afternoon and possibly
the Wednesday morning commute across at least portions of the
North.
3) Rapidly dropping temperatures could quickly freeze untreated
wet surfaces Wednesday afternoon/night, potentially creating
slippery travel conditions for the Wednesday evening and
Thursday morning commute.
4) There is the possibility for a period of snow across the
North and rain/snow elsewhere from Thursday night into Saturday.
This could create dangerous travel during at least a portion of
this time range.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cold temperatures continue through
the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The upper level trof continues to pipe cold air into the region
for tonight. The 925mb model temps shows a cold airmass between
-8C to -12C across the region tonight. Surface temps will be in
the single digits in the north and teens in the south. In
addition, a weak vort max will develop to the west and move
across the region tonight. Decided to include isolated snow
showers. By Sunday, pressure gradients tighten behind the
shortwave which will increase winds for the day. This is
expected to erode the inversion with a well mixed boundary
layer. This will bring surface temps back into the mid 30s in
the north and low 40s in the south, though winds will make it
feel about 10 degrees cooler.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Snow North and a rain/snow mix elsewhere Tuesday morning,
transitions to a wintry mix across the North and rain elsewhere
Tuesday afternoon. This wintry mix could linger across portions
of the North into Wednesday morning, especially across the St
John Valley. This will impact the Tuesday afternoon and possibly
the Wednesday morning commute across at least portions of the
North.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The guidance still has not converged on a solution for the track
of the storm system that will impact the region from Tuesday
into Wednesday.
A northern stream shortwave trough moves into Southwestern
Ontario Tuesday, tracking to near/just east of James Bay by
Wednesday morning, then to eastern Quebec/Labrador by Wednesday
evening. The differences in the exact strength, axis
orientation, timing and placement of this shortwave trough is
causing a lot of variability in the placement of the resultant
surface features. There remain three basic scenarios with this
system:
SCENARIO A: Surface low tracks near/just north of the northern
Maine/Canada boarder. This will result in the least amount of
time for a wintry mix and could see the entire region (except
for maybe the St John valley) change to all rain. This camp
would limit impacts to the Tuesday afternoon commute mainly for
the Crown of Maine. A minority of ensemble members follow this
scenario.
SCENARIO B: The surface low tracks across Central Maine. This
will result in a prolong period of a wintry mix, possibly
primarily freezing rain across the North, especially across
northern portions of Aroostook, Somerset and Piscatiquis
counties. Should see a brief period of snow at the start, change
over to a wintry mix Tuesday afternoon, then to mainly freezing
rain Tuesday night. Most areas should change to all rain by
Wednesday morning, but this wintry mix or freezing rain could
linger into Wednesday morning across the St John Valley and
portions of the North Woods. Across Downeast Maine and the
Bangor/Penobscot region a rain/snow mix Tuesday morning should
become all rain Tuesday afternoon and remain rain until tapering
off Wednesday. Elsewhere, the transition to all rain should
occur during Tuesday night. This scenario could yield a quick
1-3" burst of snow followed by several tenths of an inch of ice
across northern portions of Aroostook, Somerset and Piscataquis
counties, impacting the Tuesday afternoon and possibly the
Wednesday morning commute across at least portions of northern
Aroostook. Elsewhere under this scenario: impacts should be
limited to mainly the Tuesday afternoon commute across the
remainder of the North. This scenario is found in a plurality
of ensemble members, and is what is shown in the official
forecast.
SCENARIO C: The surface low tracks near or just south of the
Maine Coast. This would bring mainly snow across the North, with
snow to a wintry mix, possibly changing to rain across the
Bangor/Penobscot Region and Interior Downeast, and a wintry mix
to rain across coastal Downeast. This scenario would keep most
of the impacts with the Tuesday afternoon commute to at most the
Bangor/Penobscot Region and interior Downeast Maine (because of
an expected later onset time to precipitation across the North
in this scenario), but should see more extensive impacts across
most of Northern and Eastern Maine for the Wednesday morning
commute under this scenario. Impacts could also last into the
Wednesday afternoon commute across Interior Downeast as any
wintry mix turns into snow before ending. This scenario is only
found in a relatively small (about 15%) of all ensemble members.
It should be noted, that there are a bit more ensemble members
suggesting the storm could go south of the coast of Maine then
there were last night.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Rapidly dropping temperatures could quickly freeze wet surfaces
late on Wednesday behind a cold front, potentially creating
slick travel conditions for the Wednesday evening commute.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
There are some model differences in the timing of the arrival of
the cold air and on how quickly it moves in. Most solutions
bring the cold air into northern Maine Wednesday afternoon and
elsewhere Wednesday evening. Some delay it to Wednesday night
completely while others, never really have the North exit the
cold air at all, and bring the cold air back to all areas by
midday Wednesday. For now leaning towards the majority solution.
With surface winds forecast to mainly remain below 10 mph, there
should not be a lot of evaporation of any surface moisture, so
could see widespread freezing of untreated wet surfaces. This
could impact the Wednesday afternoon commute mainly across the
North and could impact the Thursday morning commute as well
elsewhere.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
There is the possibility for a period of snow across the
North and rain/snow elsewhere from Thursday night into Saturday.
This could create dangerous travel during at least a portion of
this time range.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
The models differ with the track, strength, and timing of a
northern stream shortwave trough that should track from the
upper Midwest/northern Plains, across the Great Lakes, then
into the southern Maritimes some where in the Thursday to
Saturday time frame. With the corresponding surface low going
from the Plains/Midwest to the Ohio Valley, then likely to a
coastal low passing to the south of Maine. Most solutions
suggest that this should create a period of snow across the
North and rain or snow elsewhere for 12-18 hour period sometime
between Thursday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. This could
result in a significant snowfall across the North impacting
multiple commutes. The uncertainty in track, and strength of
this system makes it difficult to specify what impacts are
experienced further south. It should be noted that there still
are some solutions that take this system completely to the
south, with no impacts to the region, though this is a reduced
number of solutions compared to previous runs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly, VFR conditions for all terminals tonight and Sunday.
For tonight and Sunday, isolated snow showers are possible for
all terminals which will briefly drop conditions to MVFR. Light
and variable winds tonight. SW winds 5-15 kts Sunday.
Sun night...VFR, with SCT-BKN MVFR possible at northern
terminals. S/SW winds around 5 kts.
Monday: High confidence in VFR at southern terminals. Mainly
VFR at northern terminals, with a low chance of MVFR there in
the afternoon in any showers. SW winds G15-20KT possible.
Monday night: Mainly VFR with a few hours of MVFR possible in
any showers. LLWS possible Monday evening. NW winds G15KT
possible late Monday night.
Tuesday: IFR or lower likely developing from SW to NE. Snow to
a wintry mix at northern terminals. A wintry mix to rain at
southern terminals. N-NE winds G15KT are possible Tuesday
morning. LLWS possible Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night...IFR or lower likely. Wintry mix at northern
terminals, rain at southern terminals.
Wednesday...Becoming VFR.
Wednesday night...VFR.
Thursday...A chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon, otherwise
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday through Sunday
night. Gust are expected to reach up to 30 kts. Seas 3-7 ft.
SCA conditions are expected on all waters on Monday, so have
extended the SCA through then. SCA conditions are then likely to
continue through Monday night and possibly into Tuesday on the
coastal ocean waters, with sub-SCA conditions on the intra-
coastal waters during this time frame. Gales likely on the
coastal ocean waters with SCAs likely on the intra-coastal
waters Tuesday night through Wednesday. Gales are possible on
the intra-coastal waters during this time period as well.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
