NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
529
FXUS61 KCAR 271920
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
220 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures rise to nearly 10 degrees above normal Saturday
before an Arctic front moves into the area late Sat afternoon.
Snow and rain showers occurring ahead of the front, with squalls
possible with any snow showers, reducing visibilities.
2) Much below normal level temperatures Sunday and Monday. The
coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night into Monday.
Temperatures will begin to recover Tuesday into Wednesday.
3) Fast moving low pressure could bring several inches of snow
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the better chances across
central and Downeast portions of the forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures rise to nearly 10 degrees above
normal Saturday before an Arctic front moves into the area late
Sat afternoon. Snow and rain showers occurring ahead of the
front, with squalls possible with any snow showers, reducing
visibilities.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
The strong cold front will move into the region Saturday
morning. Instability with the cold front will produce convective
showers in the afternoon. There are two possibilities with
these lines of convective showers:
First, the timing of the lines of showers are well ahead of the
cold front, allowing for the mixing of warm air into the
boundary layer. Due to the afternoon temps being well above
normal, reaching into the 40s, any precip that falls would be in
the form of rain. The convective showers would have enough
moisture from the tropical airmass to create localized heavy
rain at times. However, with the mid level being fairly dry,
these convective showers could be more scattered to isolated
depending on the timing.
Second, the timing of the line of showers would be along the
cold front, tapping into the colder air working into the mid
levels. Though the surface temps would be well above normal, the
925mb temps would be below freezing. This means any precip that
forms in the column above the surface would not have enough
time to melt as it reaches the surface. This scenario would
create snow showers for the afternoon. This coupled with the
gusty winds could produce isolated snow squalls.
Nevertheless, precip is expected for Saturday during the
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Much below normal level temperatures Sunday and
Monday. The coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to recover Tuesday into
Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air will bring much below normal level temperatures to the
region Sunday into Monday. High temperatures Sunday will range
from the mid to upper teens north, to the upper 20 to around 30
Downeast. Scattered snow showers will occur Sunday. Low
temperatures Sunday night will range from around 10 to 15 below
zero north, to around zero to 5 above Downeast. Apparent
temperatures could reach Cold Weather Advisory levels across
northern portions of the forecast area Sunday night. High
temperatures Monday will range from the lower to mid teens
north, to around 20 to the lower 20 Downeast. Low temperatures
Monday night will range from around 5 below zero north, to
around 0 to 5 above Downeast. Temperatures will recover to near
normal levels Tuesday, reaching slightly above normal levels
Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Fast moving low pressure could bring several
inches of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the better
chances across central and Downeast portions of the forecast
area.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Fast moving low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday
night into Wednesday. However, timing and track differences
still exist. Based on current indications, the better snow
chances would occur across central and Downeast portions of the
forecast area. Light snow should expand across the region later
Tuesday into Tuesday night then persist into Wednesday morning.
Dependent on the eventual track, several inches of snow are
possible across central and Downeast portions of the forecast
area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Hazardous travel is possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions for all terminals this afternoon and tonight.
Light S winds.
Saturday...mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR for the north in
showers in the afternoon. LLWS for north terminals. S winds
15-20 kts with gust up to 30 kts.
Saturday night...VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with scattered snow showers.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR north. Isolated snow showers north
early. VFR Downeast. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.
Monday through Monday night...VFR. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. West/southwest winds
5 to 10 knots Monday night.
Tuesday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance of light
snow. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of snow
north. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, Downeast with a chance of
snow. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of snow
early north. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, Downeast with a chance
of snow early. VFR/MVFR regionwide during the afternoon. North
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas expected to rise above 5ft late this evening. By Saturday
afternoon seas increase to between 5 to 7 feet in southerly
swell. Southwesterly winds increase to small craft levels early
Saturday morning and remain elevated through the day.
Small craft advisory level conditions Sunday into Monday. A few
wind gusts could approach gale levels Sunday night. A chance of
snow showers Sunday. Moderate freezing spray Sunday night into
Monday. Light freezing spray Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
