NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
751
FXUS61 KCAR 161919
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
219 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure approaches tonight and passes to the north
Wednesday, with a cold front moving through the area Wednesday
evening. Another low pressure system passes to our northwest Friday,
followed by another cold front moving across the area Friday
night. High pressure builds in Saturday with another area of low
pressure passing north of the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
1) Spotty light freezing rain or sleet Wednesday morning into
early afternoon north of Bangor
Quiet day today into tonight. Clouds increase late this
afternoon and tonight from west to east as the next system
approaches. Any precipitation should hold off until during the
day Wednesday. This system looks fairly potent at upper levels,
but just isn`t tapping into much much from the south, thus
precipitation will be quiet light. One tricky aspect is a likely
warm above freezing layer aloft with a sub-freezing layer at
the surface for many areas north of Bangor in the morning and
early afternoon. While precipitation will be light (probably no
more than 0.05 inches liquid equivalent), it could be any of
snow, sleet, or freezing rain, and perhaps going between all
three. Don`t think that the freezing rain aspect is enough to
warrant any winter weather advisories, but will of course keep
an eye on it. Snow/sleet accumulations, if any, will be quite
light. Expect any snow accumulation, for those that get some in
the north, to be less than an inch. From mid-afternoon on, think
that the warm layer aloft should move east of the area and we
will be left with just either rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix.
Cold front moves through Wednesday evening with perhaps a few
snow showers, then drying out and cooling off through the night.
Could be some gusty westerly winds in the evening with gusts to
about 25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Strong winds are likely with damaging winds possible Friday,
particularly along the coast where a High Wind Watch has been
issued.
2) Rain is expected across the entire area Friday along
with significant snowmelt. Any flooding issues are expected to
be minor.
What Changed:
1) High Wind Watch issued for coastal areas Friday.
2) Forecast temperatures and dew points have increased slightly, resulting
in more forecast snowmelt and snowpack loss.
Thursday:
A ridge of high pressure will crest overhead Thursday morning
followed by return flow Thursday afternoon as the ridge moves
eastward and a larger trough digs into the Great Lakes. Another
mild day is expected as the return flow overwhelms any brief
cold advection during the morning. Mostly clear skies are
expected early, with some increasing high clouds late.
Thursday night to Friday:
A highly amplified upper level trough over the Great Lakes will
become neutrally to negatively tilted Thursday night, resulting
in a surface low deepening over the Great Lakes into western
Quebec. Strong warm advection associated with a south to north
oriented low level jet will bring in a maritime air mass over a
cold snowpack. This will result in fog forming late Thursday
night along the coast and spreading northward Friday, along with
a period of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall across the entire
forecast area. Rainfall amounts generally around 1 inch are
expected, though localized higher amounts are possible.
Significant snowpack loss is expected, especially for areas
along and southeast of I-95 and US-1. The combination of
existing snow absorbing rainfall and antecedent drought
conditions will limit the flooding threat to poor drainage
areas. The low level jet will also produce strong to possibly
damaging winds, especially along the coast where a High Wind
Watch has been issued. Further inland, cold snowpack should act
to strengthen the surface inversion and limit mixing towards the
surface. However, as more snow melts, higher winds may reach
inland, particularly with the heaviest precipitation just ahead
of the front. There is currently not enough confidence to expand
the watch any further inland. Astronomical tide cycles are low
with a new moon, so coastal flooding is not expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Strong, gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday morning may
lead to isolated power outages.
2) Temperatures fall below freezing Friday night, refreezing
any lingering standing water.
3) A light snow accumulation is likely Saturday night into
Sunday morning for much of the area.
Friday Night to Saturday:
A cold front will sweep through the area just after sunset
Friday evening, with most guidance now showing it crossing the
area around 0z Friday night. Guidance only has about a 10 to 15
degree temperature drop behind the front, which would keep
temperatures above freezing longer before a secondary cold front
sweeps through later during the night. If this is the case,
there will be plenty of time for surfaces to dry out to limit
flash freeze concerns, especially for southern areas. Northern
areas will generally have less time before the freeze and more
snow leftover compared to Downeast and the Bangor area.
Winds shift out of the WNW to NW Friday night and become strong
through Saturday morning. Wind gusts to advisory level are
possible with gusts to 40 to 50mph, though some model
differences remain regarding the strength of the pressure
gradient. Higher NBM percentiles were used for the official
forecast through 18z Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, winds
begin to decrease as the pressure gradient loosens. Wind chills
Saturday morning will range from 0 to 10 below across the north,
to 5 to 10 above along the coast, with air temperatures
generally in the teens north to 20s south.
Saturday night to Tuesday:
Zonal flow sets up for Saturday night into Sunday, leading to
modest warm advection and a return to near normal temperatures.
A warm front crosses the area Saturday night, leading to a
strong chance (50-70 percent) of a light accumulation of snow
across the forecast area. Lingering light snow or snow showers
are possible on Sunday with near normal temperatures favored as
a cold front crosses the area. Guidance then favors a trough
across New England with multiple embedded shortwaves keeping
cold air entrenched and potential for snow showers into early
next week.
Tuesday Night:
There is general agreement that a strong shortwave and clipper
system will move through the area Tuesday night into the morning
of Christmas Eve. Snow showers and squalls are possible with
the Arctic front, along with a reinforcement of Arctic air
heading into Christmas Eve.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR rest of today. Main issue is likely LLWS
beginning tonight for all sites. Though clouds increase today,
most spots should stay above VFR. During the day Wednesday,
especially before 20z, light precipitation is possible mainly
north of BGR. At TAF sites HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE, intermittent light
freezing rain or sleet is possible 12-20z, but don`t have enough
confidence to put in the TAFs, and if it does occur, looks quite
light. Surface S/SW winds around 10 kts through tonight and
Wed, shifting to the W Wed evening with a few gusts to 20 kts.
MVFR cigs likely after roughly 17z Wed from HUL north, remaining
into the evening, then VFR. Areas like BGR/BHB should remain VFR
through Wed night.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR. Winds S 10 gusting to 20 kts.
Thursday night-Friday...IFR in rain, possibly lower with areas
of fog. LLWS late Thursday night and Friday. Winds S 10-20 kts
with gusts to 30kts, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 35
kts north and 20-30 kts with gusts to 45-50 kts for and BGR and
coastal terminals.
Friday night to Saturday...MVFR north, VFR Downeast. Winds NW
15-25kts with gusts to 35-40kts, decreasing Saturday afternoon.
Saturday Night to Sunday: MVFR with a period of IFR possible in
-SN. Winds S at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts during the day
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in gales and have issued a gale
warning for later tonight through Wednesday evening. Direction
will be from the SW shifting to the W. Seas building to around
12 ft during the day Wednesday.
SHORT TERM: Winds diminish below SCA levels Thursday morning
before increasing back to gale force from the south Thursday
evening. Winds then shift from the west late Friday afternoon,
remaining at gale force through early Saturday morning before
falling below SCA levels by Saturday night. Seas increase above
5ft late Tuesday night to as high as 12ft over the outer waters
Wednesday afternoon. Seas diminish slightly before ramping up
again toward 15ft Friday afternoon and remain elevated above 5ft
through Saturday evening.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST Wednesday
night for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...TF
Short Term...MWS
Long Term...MWS
Aviation...TF/MWS
Marine...TF/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
