NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
933
FXUS61 KCAR 071841 CCA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
141 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The models are trending towards a warmer solution for Friday
and Friday night.
Trending towards a colder solution for the potential winter
storm Saturday night and Sunday
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow/Freezing Rain/Rain tapering off by early this
evening
2) Patchy freezing drizzle ahead of precipitation Friday morning
and patchy freezing drizzle behind cold front late Friday night
over Aroostook county
3) Potential Winter Storm Saturday Night and Sunday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light snow/Freezing Rain/Rain tapering off by early this
evening
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A northern stream trough with most of its energy focused to our
south passes over the eastern Gulf of Maine through the early
evening hours then over/south of Nova Scotia tonight. This will
allow for precipitation to taper off from NW to SE into the
evening hours (overnight hours far SE Downeast Maine). With
temperatures continuing there slow rise over the advisory area,
will allow it to expire at 3pm, as most/all of that area should be
above freezing by then based on recent trends in local
observations.
Thursday/Thursday night should be dry as deep layered ridging
builds in.
Temperatures remain above normal through Thursday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Patchy freezing drizzle ahead of precipitation Friday morning
and patchy freezing drizzle behind cold front late Friday night
over Aroostook county
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
The warm front is expected to develop to the north of the region
Friday morning, switching the winds to a S flow. Models are
trending towards a warmer solution, thus decided to add more
drizzle ahead of the approaching precip Friday afternoon. Upper
air model soundings do show a strong signature of drizzle at the
lower levels. The question will be if temps get to freezing or
not. By Friday night, temps should continue to warm to above
freezing and remain throughout the night.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Potential Winter Storm Saturday Night and Sunday
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Models have become more consistent with the Saturday night and
Sunday storm. As of this update, models show an occlusion
stretching across the state with the triple point over the
waters. Upper air model soundings indicate a cooler temp trend
with the system with a possible warm nose at the mid levels.
Confidence is low in a mixed precip scenario as of this update,
however, cannot rule it out for Saturday night. Specifically if
the CAD sets up ahead of the cooler airmass. Decided to stick
with the NBM which has rain in Downeast Saturday night, then
rain moving north into the Central Highlands Sunday. Areas to
the north should see snow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday: Mainly IFR/LIFR to start with a few
pockets of MVFR and VFR. Conditions should become MVFR at
northern terminals this evening and at southern terminals
overnight. Conditions becoming VFR throughout Thursday morning.
Precipitation mainly snow at northern terminals, though cannot
rule out some sleet mixing in at KHUL. Precipitation rain at
KBHB and FZDZ/FZRA at KBGR. Precipitation tapers off late this
afternoon/early this evening, but could see some patchy snow
showers into the early overnight hours at northern terminals.
Winds become light and variable throughout this evening. KFVE
should see winds become NW at 6-10KT by mid Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon-Thursday night: VFR. NW winds G15-20KT
possible Thursday afternoon-early Thursday evening.
Friday-Friday night...MVFR/IFR. Freezing drizzle possible
Friday morning with patchy fog and mainly rain on Friday. S
5-15kts Friday becoming W 10-20kts late Friday night. LLWS
possible.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. WNW 5-15kts.
Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in wintry mix. ENE 5kts
Saturday night, becoming S-W 5-10kts Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night...MVFR/IFR improving to VFR late. WNW winds 5-10
kts.
Monday...VFR. W winds 5-15 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight through Thursday night: There could be a few gusts to
around 25kt through early evening, otherwise sub-SCA conditions
are expected on the waters through Thursday night. Winds at
950mb are progged to just under 25 kt late this afternoon/early
this evening with marginal 1000-950 mb lapse rates, so do not
have the confidence to hoist any flags in the immediate short
term, and with the above entering arguments believe any gusts to
around 25 kt will not be frequent in nature.
Friday through Monday: Winds and seas should increase to SCA
level Friday afternoon with possible gale force winds Friday
night. Winds and seas should decrease below SCA levels Saturday.
Winds should increase again Saturday night to Sunday with gale
force winds possible Sunday night through Monday. Seas 5-9 ft
Sunday night through Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PM/ARL
AVIATION...PM/ARL
MARINE...PM/ARL
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
