NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
213
FXUS61 KCAR 072334
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
634 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale warning will expire for the outer waters at 5am.
Updated for 00z aviation discussion.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures remain much above normal through Tuesday,
leading to significant snowmelt and rotting of river and lake
ice.
2) Significant precipitation expected Wednesday through
Thursday. Low confidence in precipitation type, but significant
wintry precipitation is possible especially in the north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Temperatures remain much above normal through Tuesday,
leading to significant snowmelt and rotting of river and lake
ice.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures have risen above normal this afternoon, and they
only get warmer from here. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 40s
to low 50s, Monday upper 40s to mid 50s, and Tuesday mid 40s to
around 60. Warmest temperatures each day should be over southern
portions of the area, but the whole area will experience warmth
and decimation of the snowpack. Many southern locations will
lose it all, and over the north, expect the surviving snowpack
to just be patchy and mainly limited to more protected areas in
the woods. That said, don`t expect many flooding issues. We
expect rivers and streams to remain in their banks. Some rivers
and streams, especially in southern portions of the area, will
have some breaking up of ice and some movement, but don`t expect
a full flushing out of waterways yet and don`t expect anything
but localized, minor issues. We will definitely be keeping an
eye on things though. One positive factor is additional rain
through Tuesday will be limited to a quarter inch or less this
afternoon through Sunday morning, then dry late Sunday to
Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Significant precipitation expected Wednesday through Thursday.
Low confidence in precipitation type, but significant wintry
precipitation is possible especially in the north.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Confidence has increased in a significant precipitation event
mainly Wednesday through Thursday. There`s about an 80 percent
chance of exceeding one half inch of precipitation in the north,
and about a 50 percent chance Downeast. For exceeding an inch
of precipitation, it`s about a 60 percent chance in the north
and 20 percent Downeast. These probabilities have been
increasing.
Bottom line, we are pretty confident precipitation will fall,
but the question is what type will fall. This is where it gets
tough. For Downeast, odds favor advisory level or less of mainly
sleet or freezing rain, if any does occur. It could also very
easily end up all rain for Downeast. For the north, however,
there is the threat of highly impactful sleet, freezing rain,
and/or snow. There is also a chance (about 30 percent chance)
it stays all rain even in far Northern Maine. ECMWF and its
ensembles tend to favor the warmer, rainier solution with the
main low pressure center passing to our north/west, while
GFS/Canadian and its ensembles tend to favor the colder, further
south low track with at least a period of impactful wintry
precipitation Wednesday to early Thursday. Too early to say what
will happen, but did throw some sleet and freezing rain into the
forecast Wednesday through Thursday morning for most places
because of this distinct possibility.
South winds could also be impactful, especially if the warmer,
further north/west low pressure track pans out. High tides are
fairly low, so coastal flooding appears unlikely at this point.
Another thing to watch out for is the potential for flooding and
river ice breakup if the warmer, rainier solutions pan out for
the whole area. But to reiterate, confidence is low in
temperatures and precipitation type. To illustrate this lower
confidence, for high temperatures on Thursday, the National
Blend of Models (NBM) has a 10th percentile of 24F and 90th
percentile of 52F in Caribou. This means we can say with 80
percent confidence that the high temperature will fall somewhere
between 24F and 52F Thursday in Caribou. That`s not a lot of
confidence. For Bangor for Thursday, it`s 31-58F for the 10th
and 90th percentile. Confidence in temperatures increase toward
Friday, with cooler air very likely moving in behind the
system. Can`t rule out more wintry precipitation late Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...IFR/LIFR with VLIFR at times tonight over Downeast
terminals and at FVE. Areas of fog and rain expected through
Sunday morning. Conditions improve to MVFR at all but FVE and
CAR around 17z Sunday. Southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kts this
evening then becoming southwesterly Sunday morning. Southwesterly
low level wind shear this evening.
Sunday night...Improving to VFR. SW 5-15kts.
Monday...VFR across all terminals. S wind 10-15 kts with gusts
to 25 kts.
Monday night to Tuesday night...Likely remaining VFR. S winds
5-10 kts possibly switching to the NE late Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
Wednesday to Thursday...High confidence in an impactful weather
system with IFR/LIFR, but low confidence in precipitation type
and wind direction depending on the track of the system. Wintry
precipitation, including freezing rain and sleet, is a distinct
possibility especially at northern terminals. Gusty south winds
and LLWS are both possible as well, with the best chance being
at southern terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect for much of the waters, with the
exception of the intra-coastal waters, this afternoon into
Sunday morning. Small craft advisory conditions are then
expected through the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night. On
the intra-coastal waters, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
this afternoon into Sunday afternoon. A chance of rain this
afternoon, then rain tonight. Showers early Sunday. Areas of fog
this afternoon into Sunday morning.
Around a 70 percent chance of SW gales late Monday.
Corresponding seas building to around 7 ft. Conditions fall
below small craft for Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Then for
Wednesday through Thursday night, southerly gales are expected
(90 percent chance) with seas potentially exceeding 10 ft. Can`t
rule out storm force winds in this period as well, with the best
chance being Thursday with about a 30 percent chance.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Monday, March 9:
Caribou: Forecast 49 F; Record 47 F set in 1998
Houlton: Forecast 53 F; Record 53 F set in 2012
Millinocket: Forecast 54 F; Record 57 F set in 2016
Bangor: Forecast 56 F; Record 59 F set in 2016
Tuesday, March 10
Caribou: Forecast 46 F; Record 55 F set in 1977
Houlton: Forecast 52 F; Record 58 F set in 1977
Millinocket: Forecast 55 F; Record 54 F set in 2016
Bangor: Forecast 59 F; Record 62 F set in 1977
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...21/TF/CN
AVIATION...21/TF/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
