NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
739
FXUS61 KCAR 151936
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
236 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight, with
the high also exiting to the east on Tuesday. An area of low
pressure passes to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday night,
followed by high pressure on Thursday, then a second low
passing to the north Thursday night though Friday night. High
pressure builds in on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
*Blowing snow and light snow showers this afternoon
*Warming temperature trend begins tomorrow
Ridging builds in from the west tonight through early tomorrow.
A tightened pressure gradient lingers over the state, between a
maritime low to the southeast, and a building high pressure to
the southwest, with some gusty winds continuing throughout
northern and central Maine until this evening. Very light
precipitation coming off of the St. Lawrence river, but little
to no snow fall accumulation is expected with these showers.
Confined snow showers to northeast Aroostook county. This
fluffy snow, combined with the snow that fell last night,
results in some blowing and drifting snow around agricultural
areas, which can reduce visibility and accumulate snow
sporadically on roadways. Always exercise caution when driving
in blowing snow conditions. Winds and snow showers gradually
relax overnight. Overnight lows in the single digits inland,
and low-teens along the coastline. Some of the lingering winds
could cause wind chills below zero.
Tomorrow, ridging stays over Maine, resulting in calm
southwesterly winds, and dry conditions. Daytime highs in the
low-20s in the north, and mid-to-upper 20s Downeast. Ridging
persists throughout the state until later that evening, as a
low-pressure system off to the the west moves closer to western
Maine, bringing a warm front and precipitation to enter the
region. By late night, precipitation just begins to enter the
region and Crown of Maine. Overnight lows in the teens for
inland areas, and low-20s along the coast. Temperatures slowly
begin to rise starting Tuesday night, throughout the rest of the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A coating to 1 inch of snow is possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening across the north, with up to 2 inches over the
mountains.
* Temperatures return to above normal.
SW flow will advect warmer air into the area on Wednesday ahead
of an upper level trough and cold front. High temperatures will
reach their warmest values since December 1 for most locations,
ranging from the low 30s across the north to lower 40s along the
coast. The shortwave trough will provide lift for snow showers
across northern and Central regions. Steadier snow across the
higher terrain and far northern Maine could leave a quick
coating to inch of snow, with locally higher amounts over the
highest SW facing slopes of the Central Highlands and North
Woods late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
A cold front then moves through later Wednesday night, followed
by a ridge of high pressure Thursday morning and return flow
Thursday afternoon as the ridge moves eastward and a larger
trough digs into the Great Lakes. Another mild day is expected
as the return flow overwhelms any brief cold advection during
the morning. Mostly clear skies are expected early, with some
increasing high clouds late.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Strong winds are likely with damaging winds possible late
Thursday night into Friday, particularly along the coast.
Additional strong wind gusts are likely Friday night into
Saturday morning.
* Rain is expected across the entire area Friday followed by
temperatures falling below freezing Friday night.
Thursday night to Friday:
A highly amplified upper level trough over the Great Lakes will
become neutrally to negatively tilted Thursday night, resulting
in a surface low deepening over the Great Lakes into western
Quebec. Strong warm advection associated with a south to north
oriented low level jet will bring in a maritime air mass over a
cold snowpack. This will result in fog forming late Thursday
night into Friday, along with a period of moderate to briefly
heavy rainfall across the entire forecast area. Rainfall amounts
of one half to one inch are most likely, with a small chance of
local amounts to around 1.5 inches. Significant snowpack loss
is expected Downeast, with less snowpack loss and more
compaction for central and northern areas. The snowpack will
absorb most of the rainfall, so flooding is not a significant
concern. The low level jet will also produce strong to possibly
damaging winds, especially along the coast. Further inland, cold
snowpack should act to strengthen the surface inversion and
limit mixing towards the surface. Astronomical tide cycles are
low with a new moon, so coastal flooding is not expected.
Friday Night to Saturday:
A cold front will sweep through the area just after sunset
Friday evening. There will be plenty of time for surfaces to dry
out across southern areas to limit flash freeze concerns.
However, over the north there will be less time, generally less
than 6 hours, between the end of precipitation and the start of
freezing temperatures. The exact details and severity of any
flash freeze remain uncertain, but at least some lingering
freezing of standing water and slush is going to occur.
Winds shift out of the WNW to NW Friday night and become strong
through Saturday morning. Wind gusts to advisory level are
possible with gusts to 40 to 50mph, though some model
differences remain regarding the strength of the pressure
gradient. Higher NBM percentiles were used for the official
forecast from Thursday night through 18z Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon, winds begin to decrease as the pressure gradient
loosens. Wind chills Saturday morning will range from 5 to 10
below across the north, to 5 to 10 above along the coast, with
air temperatures generally in the teens north to 20s south.
Saturday night to Monday:
Zonal flow sets up for Saturday night into Sunday, leading to
modest warm advection and a return to near normal temperatures.
A warm front crosses the area Saturday night, leading to a
strong chance (50-70 percent) of accumulating snow across the
forecast area. Lingering snow showers are possible on Sunday
with near normal temperatures favored as a cold front crosses
the area. Guidance then favors a trough across New England with
multiple embedded shortwaves keeping cold air entrenched and
potential for snow showers into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally MVFR at northern
terminals, due to blowing/drifting snow and light snow showers
reducing visibility. NW winds at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to
25-30 kts possible. Ceilings generally low-end VFR to high-end
MVFR. Winds gradually relax tonight, becoming more westerly, and
then more southwesterly tomorrow. Ceilings begin to rise
tonight.
KBGR/KBHB: Generally VFR at southern terminals. NW winds around
15 kts, with gusts up to 30-35 kts possible. Winds gradually
relax tonight, becoming more westerly, and then more
southwesterly tomorrow.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR Downeast terminals, becoming MVFR/IFR in light
snow northern terminals. Winds SSW 5-15kts gusts to 20kts.
Wednesday night...Improving to VFR north. Remaining VFR
elsewhere. Winds WSW 5-15kts.
Thursday...VFR. Winds S 10 gusting to 20 kts.
Thursday night-Friday...IFR in rain, possibly lower with areas of
fog. LLWS Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds S 10-25 kts
with gusts to 30kts north and 40kts for BGR and coastal
terminals.
Friday night to Saturday...MVFR north, VFR Downeast. Winds NW
15-25kts with gusts to 35kts, decreasing Saturday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory over the waters until late
tonight. Lull in conditions as winds fall below criteria
through tomorrow, before ramping back up to potential Gale
conditions over the outer waters Tuesday night. Wave heights
will gradually relax back to 5 ft or below late tonight. Winds
currently from the NW, shifting to the W tomorrow, and shifting
SW by tomorrow night. Light freezing spray possible today into
tonight.
SHORT TERM: SW winds remain at Gale force into Wednesday. Winds
diminish below gales Wednesday night then below SCA levels
Thursday morning before increasing back to gale force from the
south Thursday evening. Winds then shift from the west late
Friday afternoon, remaining at gale force through early Saturday
morning before falling below SCA levels by Saturday night. Seas
increase above 5ft late Tuesday night to as high as 12ft over
the outer waters Wednesday afternoon. Seas diminish slightly
before ramping up again toward 15ft Friday afternoon and remain
elevated above 5ft through Saturday evening.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...ASB
Short Term...MWS
Long Term...MWS
Aviation...ASB/MWS
Marine...ASB/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
