NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
743
FXUS61 KCAR 070609
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
109 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will move east today. Low pressure
tracking into Quebec will pull a warm front north across the area
tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday. High pressure will
build over Saturday night. Low pressure will approach on
Sunday...cross the area Monday...and continue into Eastern Canada
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This morning will be clear to partly cloudy as high pressure well
south of the area begins to move east. Clouds will then increase
today as low pressure tracking from Ontario into Western Quebec
pulls a warm front across the area. As precipitation moves in this
evening, boundary layer temperatures will be cold enough for snow
over the northern third of our area with rain elsewhere. A little
over an inch of snow is likely across the north before warmer air
lifts north later this evening to change snow over to rain. Most of
the accumulating snow will fall between 9 PM and midnight tonight
before the warmer air lifts north changing snow to rain.
This is a fast moving system and drier air will begin to surge in
after midnight tapering rain off to showers and drizzle. The low
will pull a cold front through on Saturday. Drier air will then
bring partial clearing Saturday afternoon with mostly clear
conditions likely over central and southern areas late Saturday
afternoon. Saturday will be mild before the colder air moves in
following the cold front. Highs will range from 50 north to around
60 Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to shift eastward and
exit the forecast area Saturday night through the day on Sunday.
Under this high pressure, winds will be relatively light. Behind
the recent cold front, temperatures will be on the cooler side
with lows Saturday night in the 20s and highs on Sunday around
40 in the north and into the mid to upper 40s Downeast.
Another shortwave will approach the area from the southwest on
Sunday, arriving Sunday evening. With the cold air established
from earlier in the weekend, there remains the likelihood of
snowfall with this system, particularly at higher elevations
across the North Woods, but through late Sunday night,
temperatures will fall such that light snow accumulations could
occur across much of the northern half of the forecast area.
With marginal temperatures through the column, snow ratios will
be low and any accumulation will remain light. Additionally,
ground temperatures remain relatively warm as it is still early
in the season, so compaction from wet snowfall and melting from
underneath will quickly diminish any accumulation by early
Monday morning. Additionally, continued precipitation Monday
morning will switch over to rain, which will further melt any
snow that fell through Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A well-amplified upper level trough digging well into the SE
CONUS will remain over the area through the middle of next week,
greatly influencing the pattern for our forecast area with a
generally unsettled setup. The next organized shortwave to pass
through the region could approach from the west Tuesday into
Wednesday. In between the weekend and midweek systems, lingering
instability may lead to a few rain showers during the day, and
snow showers at night as temperatures fall. Temperatures will
be around or slightly less than average through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected today with increasing mid and high
clouds. Conditions will lower to MVFR early this evening then
IFR in snow north and some rain and drizzle south through late
evening. Conditions will improve to MVFR Saturday morning then
VFR by midday Saturday. Winds SW around 5 kt today, S around 10
kt tonight, then SW around 10 kt Saturday becoming W.
SHORT TERM:
Sat night: VFR across all terminals. Winds light and variable.
Sun: Mainly VFR, decreasing towards MVFR late from south to
north. Winds light and variable.
Sun night - Mon night: MVFR/IFR across all terminals, possible
LIFR in rain/snow mix at northern terminals early Mon morning. E
winds 5 to 10 kts through Mon afternoon, shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts
Mon night. LLWS possible Mon afternoon.
Tues: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible in rain showers, with
snow possibly mixing in at northern terminals early. SW to W
winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will drop below SCA early this morning then increase to
SCA late today through tonight before dropping back below SCA
Saturday morning. Seas around 4 to 5 ft this morning dropping to
3 ft late today then building up to 8 ft late tonight in early
Saturday morning.
SHORT TERM: Winds should remain below small craft advisory
levels Saturday night through Sunday, while seas continue to
diminish below 5 ft through late Saturday night and remain below
SCA levels through the day on Sunday. As the next storm system
moves over the waters, winds will increase once more into the
day on Monday, with onshore gusts 25 to 30 kts and seas
responding with waves building to 6 to 8 ft by Monday night.
Winds may further increase to gale strength by later in the day
on Tuesday while seas continue to build through mid-week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MB
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...MB/AES
Marine...MB/AES
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
