NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
269
FXUS61 KCAR 300726 CCA
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
226 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts to the north today through Wednesday. A weak
area of low pressure develops along the coast Wednesday night
into Thursday and lifts into the Canadian Maritimes through
Friday. Additional weak disturbances rotate through the state
into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message 1: Refreezing of slush/rain, as well as lingering
snow across the north will impact travel for the commute this
morning.
Key Message 2: Increasing wind gusts area wide may lead to
patchy blowing snow and potential for a couple power outages
across northern areas.
Key Message 3: Cold wind chills as low as the lower negative
20s across the north and negative teens across the southern half
of the forecast area are expected tonight into Wednesday morning.
Discussion:
Through Today... 6z surface analysis shows an occluded front
across eastern areas with the triple point low strengthening below
980mb across southern New Brunswick. Strong PVA and low level
convergence to the west of the low has led to a burst of light to
moderate snow across much of the area, with the heaviest
accumulating snow across Aroostook County this morning. The Winter
Weather Advisory has been extended until 7AM for northern
Aroostook County. Bands of snow will continue across this area
through the morning, gradually retreating to mainly the northern
and western Maine borders by around 12z/7AM this morning. Winds
increase out of the west tonight as colder air sweeps into the
area. Lingering ice and snow on trees may lead to a couple power
outages from the wind, despite gusts only expected to peak around
35 to 40 mph. In areas of northern Maine with fresh snow, some
patchy drifting and blowing snow is likely as well over open
areas. Colder air will also lead to refreezing of any standing
water for the rest of the area that saw rain yesterday.
Temperatures will decrease during the day, falling from the 20s in
the morning to the lower teens by late afternoon at most
locations.
Tonight to New Years Eve...
Flurries and snow showers over the northern and western Maine
border will finally diminish tonight as a broad upper level
disturbance lifts northward. Winds turn WSW to SW and decrease
slightly, but likely not enough to lead to decoupling,
especially with mostly cloudy skies across the north. Despite
this, the air mass will still be cold enough to yield low
temperatures just below zero across the north and in the single
digits for southern areas to the coast. Wind chills will be in
the teens to low 20s below zero across the north, and generally
5 to 15 below across the south. Some very modest warm advection
is expected for Wednesday/New Years Eve, which should allow
temperatures to rebound into the 20s Downeast and teens to upper
single digits across the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
*Shortwave brings chance of few inches Downeast on Thursday
*Cold temperatures New Years Day and Night
Key Message 1...
Aforementioned low pressure system moves north
towards central Canada and the Hudson Bay, before parking there
through the rest of the week. Stemming from this longwave trough
will be multiple shortwave disturbances, which keep skies
relatively cloudy and could result in some snow Wednesday night
into Thursday, as disturbances swing through the Downeast
region. One such disturbance centers over Maine Thursday
morning, and with plenty of cold air funneling in from arctic
air masses, bringing a decent chance for some accumulating
snowfall, primarily in the interior and coastal Downeast
region. The specific track of this disturbance is still
uncertain, which would impact snow total accumulation. Overall,
however highest snowfall amounts are expected along the
Downeast region, with a potential for around 3-4 inches possible
from Wednesday night through Thursday. Inland Downeast and
Bangor region would see closer to 1-2 inches of snowfall.
Central and Northern Maine will get lighter amounts, roughly 0.5
- 1 inch. Expecting the snow to be light and fluffy.
Key Message 2...
As the broad longwave trough parks over Canada
through most of the week, cold arctic air is funneled into New
England region, resulting in below average daytime highs and
cold overnight lows. Wednesday night, lows at or around 0
degrees in the north, mid-teens in interior Downeast, and low
20s along the Downeast coast. Daytime highs on Thursday are
forecast to only reach in the to low-to-mid teens in the north,
and upper-teens to low-20s for Central and interior Downeast
regions. Mid-to-upper 20s for the coast. Thursday night will be
especially cold as winds ramp up slightly, with the north
dipping 10-15 below, and Downeast at or around 0 degrees. Wind
chills in the north could reach 20 below overnight, and 10 below
Downeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
*Cold temperatures through the weekend
*Potential for system late next week
Key Messages 1...
Cold temperatures linger Friday through the
weekend, as low pressure to the north parks in central Canada,
continuing to push cold air masses towards Maine. Daytime highs
generally staying in the single digits to low teens in the
north, and the teens to 20s Downeast. Overnight lows around 10
below in the north, and generally in the single digits Downeast.
Wind chills in the negative 20 to 30 range is possible late
this weekend.
Key Message 2...
Next chance for precipitation could be early
next week, as a primarily low in Canada potentially merges with
another low, bringing a chance for another shortwave to swing
through eastern Maine. The ECMWF and GFS have begun to come into
agreement that a shortwave could go over Maine, but the track
and timing of the system is. The GFS has a shortwave moving
through early next week, with high pressure building in behind
it my mid-week. The ECMWF, however, has the shortwave move over
early next week, but then merge with the parent low back in
Canada, bringing that low down in to Maine mid-week. Overall,
the ECMWF now has a snowier solution. The overall trend to note
here is that models are coming into agreement that a shortwave
could stem off of the parent low in Canada, but the behavior of
the low and its track is still uncertain at this time. Continue
to monitor the forecast for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today:
IFR/MVFR at Aroostook County terminals early with -SN, improving
to all MVFR ceilings and visibility by 12z. DRSN or brief
periods of BLSN are possible today. Winds shifting W at 10 to 15
kts with gusts to 30 kts.
IFR at BHB and along the coast, as well as MVFR for BGR and MLT
will become VFR after 12z. Winds W 10 to 15 kts with gusts to
30 kts.
Tonight to Wednesday:
MVFR at northern Aroostook County terminals through Wednesday
morning, becoming VFR Wednesday afternoon. VFR at other
terminals. WSW to SW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.
SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night - Thursday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A slight
chance of snow showers in the north, a chance for snow at BGR
and BHB. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming W/NW Thursday. Gusts
up to 20 kt at southern terminals possible in evening.
Thursday night - Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of light
snow at KBHB. Light W/NW winds at 5-10kts, becoming SW Friday
evening.
Friday night - Saturday...Generally VFR. W/SW winds 5-10kt,
becoming W/NW during the day Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: After a brief lull early this morning, winds will
ramp back up to gale force and continue through tonight. Winds
decrease below gale force to advisory levels first over the
intracoastal waters later tonight, then over all waters
Wednesday. Seas will build to 8 to 13 feet over the outer waters
today and decrease below 10 feet Wednesday. Light freezing spray
develops today through Wednesday morning. There is a chance of
moderate freezing spray tonight for areas near the coast, but
confidence is not sufficient for a freezing spray advisory at
this time.
SHORT TERM: Small Craft Criteria level winds and seas begin to
fall below criteria Wednesday night. Winds begin to rise to
Small Craft criteria again Thursday afternoon/evening in to
Friday. Chance for snow Wednesday through Thursday night. Winds
from the W/SW on Wednesday night, shifting to the NW by
Thursday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ001-
002.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...MWS
Short Term...ASB
Long Term...ASB
Aviation...MWS/ASB
Marine...MWS/ASB
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
