NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
367
FXUS61 KCAR 071033
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
533 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated aviation section to reflect 12z TAFs
- Increasing confidence in above normal temperatures early next
week which could challenge daily record highs, and increased
confidence in significant snow pack reduction in this pattern
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light Freezing rain or drizzle will impact the region early this
morning followed by rain and warmer temperatures this
afternoon.
2) Temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday, leading to
significant snow melt and rotting of river and lake ice.
3) Low pressure moving through the region Wednesday into
Thursday could bring snow, rain, or even a wintry mix to the
forecast area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light Freezing rain or drizzle will impact the region early this
morning followed by rain and warmer temperatures this
afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Moisture will continue to increase across the region early this
morning in advance of an approaching warm front. Expect a
period of freezing rain or drizzle through mid morning. This may
result in locally slick travel conditions on untreated road
surfaces. The precipitation will change to all rain by mid
morning across the greater Bangor region and central areas, and
by mid day across the colder valleys of far northern Maine. Any
ice accumulations will generally be a tenth of an inch or less.
Temperatures by late afternoon will rise into the upper 30s to
around 40 north and and the lower 40s for the Bangor region and
Downeast areas. Temperatures will remain well above normal
levels on Sunday. This will result in increased snowmelt.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday, leading to
significant snow melt and rotting of river and lake ice.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A mild air mass remains in place over the forecast area through
the first half of the upcoming week. With ridging in place over
the area, there are not expected to be any disturbances to
shift air masses, allowing for the mild air mass to remain over
northern New England for several days while temperatures
gradually rise into the middle of the week, reaching 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal. This rise in temperature could
lead to high temperatures lifting into the low to mid 50s
through the CWA, and low temperatures each night falling into
the upper 20s to mid 30s. More information on temperatures with
respect to climate norms can be found in the Climate section
below.
These abnormally warm temperatures will significantly erode the
existing snow pack. Current calculations through Monday night
suggest 1 to 2 inches of SWE loss. Currently SWEs across the
forecast area sit around 2 to 4 inches. While the northern half
of the forecast area will be slowest to respond to this heat
wave with current snow temperatures in the teens and greatest
starting snow depth, Downeast snow pack could be reduced by at
least half, though it is becoming increasingly likely that the
snow pack Downeast could be completely wiped out under this warm
weather. These warm temperatures will support river and lake ice
rot as well.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure moving through the region Wednesday into Thursday
could bring snow, rain, or even a wintry mix to the forecast
area.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A low pressure system will approach the area from the west
through the middle of the week. There remains a variety of
solutions with this system.
Where there is good agreement:
- An open wave surface low pressure system will move into the
area. At least a portion of the forecast area will spend some
time within the warm sector of this system.
- Temperatures will drop behind the low pressure passage as a
more seasonable air mass returns for the end of the week.
- There is relatively high confidence that at least a portion
of the forecast area will see measurable precipitation through
the middle of the week.
What remains most unknown:
- The exact path the surface low will take. If the low crosses
further north, more of the forecast area will become
encompassed by the warm sector and precip types will lean more
towards rain, or even a dry slot with lower precip amounts.
The ECMWF deterministic is a good example of the warm
solution. If the low tracks closer to the coast, colder air
will rush in more quickly, with snow being a more likely
precip type for a larger portion of the CWA. With dry slot
potentially remaining off-shore, this solution could yield
higher precip amounts as well. The GFS deterministic is an
example of this solution. By examining the NBM, ICON, and
UKMET guidance, the warmer solution seems to be the more
likely solution at this time, with lesser QPF and more rain,
but confidence remains quite low, and so the NBM solution with
rain/snow mix was left in this current forecast.
- The existence of any wintry mix is also unknown at this time.
Several forecast soundings indicate a warm nose will
accompany onset of precip with this system, which could lead
to freezing rain and/or sleet across the region. Even guidance
which maintains a more clear rain/snow solution, such as the
GFS, has a warm nose signature, albeit higher in the profile.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at all the
terminals through tonight in low ceilings and patchy fog.
-FZDZ/-FZRA will impact the terminals early this morning
followed by -RA this afternoon into tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions
expected Sunday morning with conditions improving to VFR during
Sunday afternoon. Low Level Wind Shear is expected to affect
the terminals through tonight. Expect surface winds S 10 to 20
kt with G25kt today, then S around 10 kt tonight. SW wind 10 to
15 kt on Sunday.
Sun night - Mon...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10
kts shifting S at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Mon night - Tue...VFR across all terminals with SKC spreading
throughout the region. SW winds shift W 5 to 10 kts.
Tues night...VFR early, possibly decreasing towards IFR late as
precipitation approaches. N winds around 5 kts.
Wed...MVFR/IFR probable Wed morning, depending on storm track.
Low cigs likely to be accompanied by precipitation, but remains
unknown at this time if that will be rain, snow, or a wintry mix
as precip type will be highly dependent on exact low track.
Chance of IFR/LIFR cigs increases by Wed night. NE winds 5 to 10
kts with gusts to 20 kts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will gradually increase later today into tonight.
Have issued a Gale Warning for the outerwaters late this afternoon
through early Sunday morning, and a small craft advisory for the
intra coastal zone this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
Marginal small craft advisory criteria could be met to begin
next week with seas around 5 ft and gusts 25 to 30 kts, highest
gusts occurring overnight Monday night. Warm temperatures will
limit any threat of freezing spray. Seas will increase on a
southerly swell Monday night into Tuesday, becoming 4 to 6 ft
across all marine zones. SCA criteria may return once more on
Wednesday as the next storm system rolls into the area.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Abnormally warm temperatures will lead to daily highs
approaching record daily high temperatures through the beginning
of the week.
Monday, March 9:
Caribou: Forecast 49 F; Record 47 F set in 1998
Houlton: Forecast 52 F; Record 53 F set in 2012
Millinocket: Forecast 54 F; Record 57 F set in 2016
Bangor: Forecast 55 F; Record 59 F set in 2016
Tuesday, March 10
Caribou: Forecast 44 F; Record 55 F set in 1977
Houlton: Forecast 51 F; Record 58 F set in 1977
Millinocket: Forecast 54 F; Record 54 F set in 2016
Bangor: Forecast 57 F; Record 62 F set in 1977
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
Sunday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
