NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
245
FXUS61 KCAR 220705
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
305 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded Winter Weather Advisory into northern Somerset and northern
Piscataquis Counties.
Increased snow amounts slightly for Central Highlands, Bangor
Region and Downeast today and tonight.
Gale Watch issued 12z Mon through 00z Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow moving into southern and central areas this morning and
continues throughout the day. Snowfall rates between 1/2 to 1 inch
per hours expected late this morning into the afternoon. This will
bring reduced visibilities and slippery road conditions to the
Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast today.
2) An Arctic cold front may bring snow showers on Wednesday, mostly
across northern and central areas. The snow could briefly coat the
roads resulting in slippery conditions.
3) Snow north and snow changing rain south is likely, beginning
Thursday and lasting through Thursday night. This may impact the
Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes, especially across the
north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snow moving into southern and central areas this
morning and continues throughout the day. Snowfall rates between 1/2
to 1 inch per hours expected late this morning into the afternoon.
This will bring reduced visibilities and slippery road conditions to
the Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast today.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure sitting over the Midwest with a warm front draped
into lower MI and into eastern PA has allowed overrunning to
develop north of the front. This low will move to the east this
morning with snow spreading into the Central Highlands and
Bangor Region early-mid morning. Snow will overspread the
remainder of Downeast throughout the morning hours. Snowfall
rates of between 1/2 to 1 inch per hour will be possible between
15- 20z today over southern areas. These rates will likely
result in slippery road conditions at times, especially on
untreated roads. The caveat to that will be lighter snowfall
rates and the strong March sun limiting accums on roadways.
Have continued Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Highlands and
Downeast, including the Bangor Region up into the Penobscot Valley.
Total snow accums will range between 3-6 inches in these areas. Six
inch amounts do not appear to be widespread enough to warrant
upgrading to winter storm warning but this will be something for the
next shift to keep an eye on. Have also expanded the advisory north
to include northern Somerset and northern Piscataquis counties as
widespread 3 to 5 inch amounts appear likely. Toyed with the idea of
expanding it further east into nrn Penobscot County but most of the
4 inch amounts are west of the Rte 11 corridor and confidence was
too low.
Further to the north expect that dry air moving in from Canada will
bring a tight gradient of snowfall over Aroostook County. It is not
out of the realm of possibility that the St. John Valley receives
only a dusting while areas around Molunkus receive between 3-4
inches of snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2...An Arctic cold front may bring snow showers on
Wednesday, mostly across northern and central areas. The snow could
briefly coat the roads resulting in slippery conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
An Arctic cold front will approach on Wednesday. A weak trough
out ahead of this front may bring some light snow early
Wednesday morning. The cold front will then cross the area
around mid-morning Wednesday possibly bringing a brief moderate
snow shower over northern and central areas. The snow showers
will be supported by surface convergence along the front and
some dynamic lifts from an upper trough crossing the area. Any
snow showers directly ahead of the Arctic front may briefly coat
roads resulting in slippery conditions Wednesday morning.
However, any travel difficulties will likely be brief with any
snow on the roads quickly melting and evaporating in the late
March sunshine. Keep in mind, any snow can hide dangerous
patches of ice that linger on some driveways.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Snow north and snow changing rain south is likely,
beginning Thursday and lasting through Thursday night. This may
impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes, especially
across the north.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A large clipper type low will quickly approach from the Great
Lakes on Thursday spreading snow across the area Thursday
afternoon or early evening. The snow will quickly change to a
mix then rain Downeast with the rain/snow line progressing north
Thursday evening. Models are in good agreement on this storms
development but disagree considerably on the timing and the
track with the GFS bringing the system in quickly by midday
Thursday but the ECMWF delaying the storms arrival until
Thursday evening. The GFS is also quicker to pull warmer air
north changing snow to rain over most of the area Thursday night
while the ECMWF is colder with mostly snow over the region. The
greatest chance for impacts will be during the Thursday evening
commute across the with slushy and slippery conditions most
likely after dark, and a chance of snow covered or slushy roads
over the north for the Friday morning commute.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today...VFR this morning will diminish to IFR/LIFR over Downeast
terminals around 14z in snow with vsbys around 1/2SM.
HUL diminishes to IFR around 18z in 3/4SM in snow with northern
Aroostook terminals remaining MVFR in light snow. NW 5-10 kts this
morning becoming easterly by afternoon.
Tonight...MVFR continues at northern Aroostook terminals tonight.
HUL, BGR and BHB should remain IFR during the evening, possibly
improving to MVFR late. ENE winds continue 5-10kts.
Monday...MVFR/IFR early, improving to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon.
Chance of snow showers. NE 5-15kts.
Monday night...VFR north. MVFR becoming VFR south. N wind around 5
kt.
Tuesday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt becoming W.
Tuesday night...VFR lowering to MVFR north. VFR south, possibly
lowering to MVFR late. SW wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday...MVFR, possibly briefly IFR in any snow showers north.
MVFR becoming VFR south. W wind around 10 kt becoming NW.
Wednesday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.
Thursday...MVFR dropping to IFR. Light and variable wind becoming SE
around 10 kt late.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels into this afternoon.
Winds increase over the outer waters to aoa 25kts in the afternoon
with gale conditions Monday morning in northeast winds. Expect that
gales will continue through the day on Monday. SCA issued for
intracoastal from 00z tonight through 00z Tuesday with seas and
winds above small craft levels.
A SCA, and possibly a gale for the offshore waters, will be needed
Monday evening, dropping below SCA early Tuesday morning. A SCA will
be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Winds will be below
SCA Thursday morning then increase to SCA Thursday afternoon. A gale
will likely be needed Thursday night. Seas up to 7 ft Monday
evening, dropping to 4 ft late Tuesday. Seas will build back up to 9
ft late Wednesday then drop back to 4 ft Thursday. Seas will rapidly
build Thursday night reaching around 12 ft by late at night in
response to a gale south wind.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight
EDT tonight for MEZ003-004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
Monday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday
for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
