NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
105
FXUS61 KCAR 011920
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
220 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low tracks into the western Maritimes tonight through
Friday night. Weak high pressure builds in for the weekend as a
weak low passes to the south. Canadian high pressure builds in
Sunday night and Monday. Another weak low passes south of the
area on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
1) Gusty winds increase behind cold front this evening leading
to blowing snow
2) Frigid airmass moving in for tonight through Saturday
Key Message 1...
Snow is beginning to blossom over sern areas this afternoon with
a baroclinic leaf starting to take shape. Trof has gone
negative this afternoon and shud capture the surface low over
the Gulf of Maine. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on
how you look at it, it will not be in time for heavy snow over
nern zones this evening.
Expect the area of snow with the front to move thru the advisory
and warning areas late this afternoon before heading off into
the Gulf. Cannot rule out an additional 1-3 inches over most of
the advisory areas, especially with the fluff factor, however
will be stretching it for northeast Aroostook.
Once fropa occurs and winds mix down from aloft west winds
increase late evening. Winds gusting to 30-35 mph will be common
during the overnight hours as pressure gradient tightens as low
deepens over the St. Lawrence. This will lead to blowing snow
downwind of open areas, especially with the fluffy nature of the
snow.
Key Message 2...
Very cold temperatures will filter out of Canada tonight with
temps dropping blo zero in the northwest and around zero
elsewhere. When combined with strong winds, wind chill temps
will easily drop toward minus 30 over the North Woods and
portions of the Central Highlands later tonight. Have issued a
Cold Weather Advisory from 08-15z tonight.
Little relief from the cold is expected thru the end of the
period with highs in the single digits on Friday over the north,
and lower teens south. Wind chills may climb above zero in the
afternoon, mainly along the coast, but just barely. Nrn areas
can expect wind chills to remain in the minus teens throughout
the day and with a cold airmass still in place a Cold Weather
Advisory may need to be issued again for tomorrow night over the
north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Point:
* Very cold temperatures through the weekend under arctic
airmass
Discussion:
High pressure returns to the forecast area this weekend, with
light winds and a drier weather pattern in store for our
forecast area. The arctic air mass in place, however, will lead
to very cold temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures on
Saturday may only peak in the lower teens Downeast, and just
above zero in the north. For Saturday night, temperatures will
drop well below zero, with lows just below zero Downeast and in
the teens below zero across the north. How far temperatures drop
will depend on how much cloud cover builds in late Saturday
night, as a low pressure system crosses south of our region
overnight. Depending on how strong the high pressure is over our
area, cloudy skies and possibly even some light snow may spread
over the Central Highlands through the Bangor region and
prevent temperatures from dipping quite as low. That said, even
at warmest temperatures will still fall to around zero Saturday
night. Cold temperatures continue again through the day on
Sunday with highs only lifting into the single digits to lower
teens above zero under continued arctic air.
Light winds through this time period will do little to lower
wind chills much, though during peak diurnal mixing on Saturday
min wind chills could fall to around 20 below zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Points:
* Continued very cold temperatures through the first half of
the week under arctic airmass
* Dangerously cold wind chills possible again early Monday
morning
Discussion:
Cold temperatures will continue into Sunday night, with lows
falling into the single digits below zero Downeast and teens to
20 below zero across the north. A low pressure system lifting
north through the eastern Canadian Maritimes will tighten the
pressure gradient just enough early Monday morning that wind
chills could drop to 20 to 30 below zero for a few hours, though
the extent to which winds pick up will greatly depend on how
close said low pressure passes compared to our forecast area.
Another low pressure system could pass south of our forecast
area on Tuesday, and the approach of this system will once again
have impacts on just how cold temperatures can fall Monday night
into the day on Tuesday. The next widespread precipitation event
for the region will likely be through the middle of next week as
a low pressure trough crosses the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR snow over terminals this afternoon into early
evening before improving to MVFR. LIFR cannot be ruled out for
the first several hours at BGR and BHB. BLSN/DRSN expected
tonight under VFR cigs. WNW winds gusting to 20-30 kts
overnight into Friday afternoon.
Winds remain strong Friday night with VFR conditions expected.
SHORT TERM:
Sat - Sat night: Mainly VFR across all terminals. W winds 5 to
10 kts and gusts to 20 kts, becoming light and variable
overnight.
Sun - Sun night: VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of light snow.
Best chance for reduction in vis due to snow at KGNR through
KBGR. Light W winds around 5 kts shifting NW.
Mon: Mainly VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Tues: MVFR/IFR, with chance for light snow. Best chance for
snow at KGNR through KBHB. Winds light and variable.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will pick up to gale force out of the WNW
later this afternoon in wake of cold frontal passage.
Intracoastal should diminish to small craft conditions Friday
morning with the outer waters in the afternoon. Cannot rule out
marginal gale force winds offshore thru the end of the period.
Moderate freezing spray expected over all waters this evening
into Friday afternoon before becoming light through Friday
night.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory criteria will likely last
through the rest of the day on Saturday, before gusts drop off
into Saturday night and seas fall to at or below 3 ft. Winds
will increase once more out of the NW Sunday night as a low
pressure system passes south of the area, with gusts increasing
to 25 to 30 kts. Light freezing spray Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for MEZ001-003-004-010.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ002-
005-006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ011-
015.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ016-
017-029-030-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Friday for ANZ050>052.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...21
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...21/AES
Marine...21/AES
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
