NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
238
FXUS61 KCAR 131053
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
553 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region today, that then exits to
the east this evening. Low pressure approaches from west
tonight. Low pressure tracks east of Nova Scotia Sunday. High
pressure builds across the region Monday into Tuesday. Low
pressure will track north of the region Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:00AM Update... Updated Aviation and Marine section below.
Previous Discussion...
Key Messages:
* Light snowfall tonight into tomorrow over Downeast and far north
Today, weak ridging centers over the region, as a low over the
Great Lakes approaches from the west. Skies partially cloudy in
the north, and clear Downeast. Daytime highs in the low-to-mid
20s, and low-30s along the coast. Occluding low pressure system
brings a warm front into western portion of Maine by this
evening, while a coastal low begins to trek north towards
Maine. Chance for some snow showers to reach into western
regions, and for some snow showers to develop over the waters.
Overnight lows in the single digits in the north, mid-teens in
central Maine, and low-20s Downeast. Little-to-no snowfall
accumulation expected in the north with these light snow
showers. Potential for quarter of an inch of snowfall along the
coastline.
Sunday, occluding low continues to pass over the state, while
strengthening coastal low tracks north, closer to the Gulf of
Maine. Majority of the snowfall with this system will fall over
the waters, but there could be some light accumulating snow
along the Downeast coast, with totals being less than an inch.
Mostly cloudy, with daytime highs in the low-20s in the north
and upper-20s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface low pressure intensifies while tracking east of Nova
Scotia while the supporting upper low begins to cross the
forecast area Sunday night. High pressure will remain ridged
west of the region Sunday night. Will have a slight
chance/chance of snow showers with the upper low Sunday night.
Current indications are that the majority of the precipitation
with the ocean low should miss the region. However, the
northwest edge of the precipitation shield could possibly clip
Downeast areas with a chance of light snow Sunday night. The
upper low exits early Monday, with surface high pressure then
building toward the region. Expect partly sunny skies Monday. An
upper level disturbance will cross the region Monday night with
partly/mostly cloudy skies. Could also have a slight chance of
snow showers across mostly northwest portions of the forecast
area. The upper disturbance will exit early Tuesday, leaving
high pressure across the region. Expect partly sunny skies
north, partly/mostly sunny Downeast, Tuesday. Temperatures will
be at below normal levels Monday/Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes Tuesday night, with
a warm front approaching late. Clouds will increase Tuesday
night, with also a slight chance/chance of snow showers late
across northern areas. The warm front should cross the region
early Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. Will also have a
chance of snow showers north, with a slight chance of snow/rain
showers Downeast. A cold front should then cross Wednesday night
with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow
showers north, partly cloudy Downeast. High pressure will cross
the region then begin to exit across the Maritimes Thursday,
while a warm front lifts across the forecast area. Clouds will
increase Thursday. Could also have a slight chance of snow
showers across mostly northern areas late. An occluded front
should cross the region Thursday night into Friday, though
timing differences still exist. Warmer air will be drawn north
in advance of the occlusion. Across Downeast areas, a snow/rain
mix early Thursday night should transition to rain. Across
northern areas, precipitation should start in the form of snow
then transition to a snow/rain mix. The occluded front should
cross the region early Friday, with a cold front then following.
Expect rain or a rain/snow mix north early Friday, with rain
Downeast. Precipitation should then transition to snow or snow
showers in the wake of the cold front. Near normal, to slightly
above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday.
Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected
Thursday/Friday. Temperatures could then begin to fall later
Friday dependent on the eventual timing of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally VFR at northern terminals, with W
winds at 5-10 kts, shifting to the SE this afternoon, light and
variable tonight. A few MVFR ceilings with very light flurries
could move through early this morning, predominantly at
KFVE/KPQI/KCAR. A few light vicinity showers possible in the
evening at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Ceilings begin to drop later tonight
to MVFR/IFR levels.
KBGR/KBHB: VFR at southern terminals, with W/SW winds at 5-10
kts, shifting to the S this afternoon at KBGR. A few light
vicinity showers possible in the evening at KBGR, and light snow
showers at KBHB. Ceilings begin to drop later tonight to MVFR
levels.
SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of snow showers north,
with a slight chance of snow Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.
Monday...Occasional MVFR possible early north. Otherwise, VFR.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. A slight chance
of snow showers north Monday night through early Tuesday. VFR
Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Southwest/west winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Tuesday.
Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR early then VFR/MVFR
with a slight chance of snow showers. VFR Downeast.
Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers north. A slight
chance of snow/rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory for the outer-waters extended
to 10AM this morning, with elevated seas still being reported.
Lull in conditions this afternoon, as winds fall below criteria,
before ramping back up to Small Craft conditions over the outer
waters later this evening into tonight. Wave heights will
gradually relax back to 5 ft or below by this afternoon. Winds
from the W this morning, shifting to the SW by this afternoon,
and to the N by tomorrow. Potential for some light rain/snow mix
showers this evening, and then snow showers tomorrow.
SHORT TERM: Gale conditions expected Sunday night into Monday.
Small craft advisory conditions Monday night. Conditions then
below small craft advisory levels Tuesday. Gale conditions then
possible later Tuesday night into Wednesday. A chance of snow
Sunday night. Light freezing spray Sunday night into early
Monday, then again Monday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
