NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
416
FXUS61 KCAR 221902
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Decreased snow totals slightly along I-95 from Bangor to
Medway to Houlton, and points northwest.
-Increased blowing snow areawide, but especially Downeast, and
issued blizzard warnings for the coast.
-Increased confidence in a clipper system moving in Wednesday.
-Potential for heavy snow showers in the north Thursday.
-Increased confidence in another winter storm moving in Friday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with
heavy snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along
the coast Monday afternoon into early evening.
2) Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will
bring snow to the region, with possible travel impacts expected
for the Thursday morning commute.
3) Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in the north
Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.
4) A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both rain and
accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting travel.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with heavy
snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along the
coast Monday afternoon into early evening.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure rapidly intensifies tonight as it moves northeast
off the southern New England coast, then maintains its strength
as a strong low pressure system as it tracks northeast through
the southern Gulf of Maine during the day Monday. This looks
like a classic higher-end Nor`easter, with strong northeast
winds and the threat of blizzard conditions mainly along the
coast. Snow starts roughly mid-morning Monday along the coast
and over Downeast, then slowly spreads north through the day,
not reaching Northern/Central Aroostook until late afternoon or
early evening. Snowfall rates will reach around 0.75 to 1 inch
per hour Downeast in the afternoon to early evening, and coupled
with sustained winds 25-35 mph and gusts 40-50 mph, blizzard
conditions are possible. Feel the greatest threat is for the
immediate coast, and have issued blizzard warning for these
areas due to the highest confidence there. The winds will be
strong enough for blizzard in the Bangor region, but just not
convinced the snow will be falling hard enough to lead to a true
blizzard this far north/northwest, so have just a winter storm
warning for these areas a bit further inland from Bangor
northeast to Northern Washington County. There will be a
northwest edge to the heaviest 8-12 inch snow area, and there is
still some uncertainty where this sets up. Feel confident in the
8-12 inch totals for Central/Southern Washington County, but
somewhere west of that amounts could drop off pretty rapidly.
Some of the latest guidance is trending a bit further south/east
with the heavier snow cutoff line, and trended forecast slightly
in this less snowy direction. Totals will drop pretty rapidly
from 8-12 inches Downeast to nearly nothing in the western North
Woods. Winds will be present through the area though, with gusts
30-40 mph in the north and 40-50 mph Downeast. Blowing snow can
be expected throughout, but it should be worse the further
southeast you go. Falling snow will taper off from west to east
Monday night. Still some blowing snow persisting though into the
day Tuesday, but not as bad as Monday afternoon/evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday will bring snow to the region, with possible travel
impacts expected for the Thursday morning commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Clipper system originating in Saskatchewan moves into the region
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Low intensifies over the
Great Lakes region Wednesday morning, and then occludes over
the region during the afternoon. Decent pressure gradient
associated with this system that could result in some gusty
winds along the coast. Predominantly snow expected to fall,
with a potential for some rain/snow mix to occur along thew
immediate Downeast coast. Guidance has a few inches of snowfall
accumulating Downeast and the coast. Seems like models have been
bringing this system a little closer to the coast, thus
increasing accumulation totals a bit. Precipitation expected to
move out by Thursday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in
the north Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Once clipper system moves out of the region by Thursday morning,
little shortwave disturbances linger in the far northern region
of Maine. There is decent low level lapse rates, lift, and some
snow squall parameters. This being said, plenty of dry air
aloft, and only looking at moisture in the lower 850mb or so.
Not very confident in squall criteria being met, but could see a
quick burst of snowfall during the afternoon. Not anticipating
much in terms of accumulations. Could see a quick burst of half
an inch to an inch. Reduced visibility while showers move
through.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both
rain and accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting
travel.
Models are in agreement that another winter storm system could
move into the area on Friday. Models are disagreeing with the
exact track of the storm, with the GFS trending the storm a bit
more north, while the ECWMF keeps the system along the coast.
These separate tracks could result in vastly different
solutions, as the GFS has a potential for significant snowfall
accumulations throughout the region, and the ECWMF just have a
few inches Downeast. There does seem to be agreement for the
region to be under the left exit region of a 250mb jet on
Friday, which would support further snowfall. Overall, continue
to monitor the forecasts for updates to this system. At the very
least, anticipating some travel impacts to occur early Friday
into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight...VFR with light N winds early, increasing to about 10
kts closer to 12z Downeast at BGR/BHB.
Monday and Monday Night...Deteriorating conditions from south
to north. Snow begins at BGR/BHB roughly 15z, slowly spreading
north and reaching PQI/CAR around 22z. Snow continues into
Monday evening, tapering off from west to east overnight. Expect
IFR or lower BGR/BHB especially due to visibility which will be
restricted in heavy/blowing snow. MVFR/IFR for northern TAF
sites Monday night. Winds from the northeast 15-25 kts with
gusts around 35 kts for BGR/BHB, and about 10-20 kts with gusts
to 30 kts for northern TAF sites from HUL north. Possible LLWS
Monday, but surface winds will also be strong so decided not to
put LLWS in TAFs.
Tuesday...Possible MVFR north, VFR south. NW wind 10-15 kts with
gusts 25 kts. Some lingering blowing snow possible.
Tuesday Night...Generally VFR. W wind around 5-10 kts.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR possible by the afternoon due to snow.
Rain/snow possible along the immediate coast. SW wind becoming
SE around 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.
Wednesday Night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions, as snow moves
eastwards. Light and variable winds.
Thursday...MVFR early, possibly becoming VFR. Chance for
periods of heavier snow showers to develop at northern terminals
during the afternoon. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.
Thursday Night - Friday Potential for a winter storm to move
into the region. MVFR/IFR possible. Currently thinking snow in
the north, and potential for mixed precip types southeast. W
winds overnight, shifting E by daybreak at, and shifting back to
W by evening. Gusts up to 20 kts possible.
&&
.MARINE...
High confidence in storm force NE winds Monday/Monday evening.
Seas build to around 15 ft. Conditions gradually improve during
the day Tuesday with NW winds down to small craft levels in the
afternoon.
Small Craft conditions expected over the outer waters Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. Small Craft conditions
expected again Wednesday into Thursday, Friday into Friday
night, and Saturday night into Sunday. Light freezing spay
Tuesday night. Chance for rain/snow Wednesday, and again
Thursday night through Friday. Winds from the NW Tuesday night,
shifting S by Wednesday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday
for MEZ005-006-011-031.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
MEZ015>017-032.
Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-
051.
Storm Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF
MARINE...ASB/TF
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
