NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
038
FXUS61 KCAR 251915
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
315 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00Z Friday for
all the waters.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mix of snow, snow/rain and rain will occur across the
region later tonight through Thursday night. Snow or mixed
snow/rain could impact the morning and evening commutes across
northern areas Thursday, along with the Thursday morning commute
Downeast.
2) Much cooler than average temperatures Friday through Sunday.
Wind chills Friday night will get as cold as about 15 below in
the north, with increased threats of frostbite.
3) Light rain and snow possible Monday, along with gusty winds.
Travel impacts are possible in the north due to icy roads.
4) Active weather pattern likely starting Wednesday, with
potential for wintry precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A mix of snow, snow/rain and rain will occur across the region
later tonight through Thursday night. Snow or mixed snow/rain
could impact the morning and evening commutes across northern
areas Thursday, along with the Thursday morning commute
Downeast.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Low pressure will approach from the west tonight drawing a warm
front north across the forecast area. Overrunning precipitation
will develop across the region tonight. Across northern areas,
expect precipitation in the form of snow. Across Downeast areas
snow will transition to a snow/rain mix late tonight. The low
will track across northern Maine Thursday drawing warmer air
northward across the forecast area. Precipitation will
transition to all rain across central and Downeast portions of
the forecast area through Thursday morning. Across northern
areas, snow should mix with rain during the afternoon. The low
exits across the Maritimes Thursday night drawing a cold front
south across the forecast area. Low pressure could cross the
Gulf of Maine Thursday night moving along the exiting cold
front. Colder air will allow a transition back to snow, from
north to south across the forecast area, Thursday night. Storm
total snow accumulations across northern areas from later
tonight through Thursday night will generally range from 2 to 4
inches. However, locally greater totals could occur across
higher terrain areas and location where snow remains the
predominant precipitation type. Across Downeast areas, snow
accumulations tonight will be around an inch or less. An
additional inch or less is also possible later Thursday night
after the transition back to snow.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Much cooler than average temperatures Friday
through Sunday. Wind chills Friday night will get as cold as
about 15 below in the north, with increased threats of
frostbite.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Cold Friday through Sunday. Not quite record-level cold, but
quite a bit colder than average. Friday will be breezy from the
northwest as the previous system exits. The coldest of the
airmass moves in Friday night. With a northwest breeze
persisting, wind chills should get below zero for most areas,
and to around 15 below over the north. Winds ease for Saturday
into Sunday, but it stays cool. Highs on Saturday will only be
15-20 above in the north and in the mid to upper 20s Downeast.
Warming trend begins Sunday as highs will be above 10 degrees
warmer than Saturday. Generally dry Friday through Sunday,
though can`t rule out an isolated snow shower mainly during
daytime hours.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Light rain and snow possible Monday, along with
gusty winds. Travel impacts are possible in the north due to
icy roads.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A fast-moving system in upper level west/northwest flow is
likely to bring light precipitation and rapid temperature
changes around Monday. Snow or rain changing to snow appears
likely early Monday with a warm front, with the best chance of
any accumulating snow being in Northern Maine. If any snow does
occur in the north, it should be less than 2 inches, though it
could impact the Monday morning commute. Warmer air is likely to
move in, with any snow changing to rain. Then colder air moves
back in Monday night with rain possibly changing to a little
snow before ending. Again, we are talking light snow
accumulations likely less than 2 inches and mainly in the north.
Precipitation overall with the Monday system looks light, with a
75 percent chance of precipitation not exceeding one quarter
inch. Winds look breezy with gusts around 30 mph with the
system, but very unlikely strong enough to be impactful. Will
have to keep an eye out for the potential for a flash freeze of
any wet roads late Monday night as colder air rushes back in on
the back side of the system.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Active weather pattern likely starting Wednesday,
with potential for wintry precipitation.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
While this is still well out in the future, there is a strong
signal for active weather Wednesday/Thursday of next week. More
concerning is the setup appears conducive to cold air damming,
as there will be strong zonal flow aloft and a much warmer
airmass probably just to the southwest of the region, and Arctic
high pressure centered to our north. This could set the stage
for several rounds of mixed precipitation somewhere in the
Northeast, with significant snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain
all being in play. Looking at individual members of various
ensemble systems, the majority have sleet and/or freezing rain
somewhere in the Northeast region Wednesday and/or Thursday.
Timing, magnitude, and location vary significantly though. Way,
way too far out to get into details, but definitely something to
watch.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with gusts up to around 25 knots, decreasing to around 10
knots late.
Tonight...VFR early. IFR/LIFR late with snow developing,
possibly mixing with rain along the Downeast coast late.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Southerly low level
wind shear develops overnight.
Thursday...IFR/LIFR. A snow/rain mix changing to rain across
central and Downeast areas. Snow mixing with rain across
northern areas. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to around 20 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots.
Southerly low level wind shear during the morning.
Thursday night...IFR/LIFR early. MVFR/IFR late. Rain changing to
snow from north to south. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around
20 knots.
Friday and Friday night...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt gusting
20-30kt, diminishing to 5-10kt late Friday night.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR. W winds 5-15kt.
Monday...Potential for MVFR/IFR with light rain and snow,
mainly northern terminals. SW winds 10-15kt gusting 25kt.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00Z Friday
for all the waters. However, a few wind gusts could also approach
gale levels Thursday. Small craft advisory level seas will
persist Thursday night. Rain/snow developing later tonight. Rain
Thursday into Thursday night.
N/NW small craft winds likely Friday night. Can`t rule out low-
end gales. Light freezing spray also likely late Friday night
and Saturday morning. Lighter winds late Saturday to early
Sunday. Then SW gales likely (75 percent chance) Monday. Seas 5
to 7 ft early Friday, gradually subsiding to 1 to 3 ft Saturday
night. Seas then build to somewhere around 10 ft Monday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/CN
AVIATION...TF/CN
MARINE...TF/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
