NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
699
FXUS61 KCAR 240302
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1002 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
-Converted the Storm Warning to a Gale Warning over the
intracoastal waters.
-Updated Key Message and Discussion for Tonight
-System for Thursday night appearing more likely to track to our
south and miss us.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong wind gusts overnight and lingering light snow will
lead to continuing travel impacts, especially across Downeast
Maine. Conditions improve during the day.
2) A weak system on Wednesday will bring up to a few inches of
snow, impacting the Wednesday afternoon commute.
3) Heavy convective snow showers over the north Thursday, likely
to reduce visibility.
4) Small possibility of a winter storm Thursday night, though it
is more likely to pass to our south.
5) Much colder weather likely Sunday and Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong wind gusts overnight and lingering light snow will
lead to continuing travel impacts, especially across Downeast
Maine. Conditions improve during the day.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Outside of a couple isolated bands, mainly across far southeast
Aroostook County and Washington County, accumulating snowfall
is ending as of 930 PM. However, the combination of strong winds
and any falling snow will lead to poor visibility and difficult
travel conditions through the rest of the night. For this
reason, winter weather and blizzard headlines will be left up
for now.
Current surface analysis shows the surface low south of the
southernmost tip of Nova Scotia occluding and beginning to fill
in with minimum central pressure increasing to 973mb as of 1z.
Pressures along the Downeast Coast are nearing their minimums,
and while winds will remain very gusty overnight, speeds should
start to trend down after midnight. Conditions will gradually
improve during the day as the pressure gradient relaxes, with
winds decreasing significantly around sunset as daytime mixing
ends.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A weak system on Wednesday will bring up to a few inches of
snow, impacting the Wednesday afternoon commute.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A weak system moving in from the west will bring light snow to
the whole area, perhaps mixed with rain near the coast. We are
pretty confident in a timeframe of Wednesday afternoon/evening.
We aren`t quite as confident in snow totals, but regardless,
it`s not looking like a warning-level event. Most likely we are
looking at 1 to 3 inches, though we can`t rule out a few spots
approaching 4 inches. Not much wind expected with the storm. The
biggest impact will be travel late Wednesday, such as around
the afternoon commute. Snow should taper off for the most part
by late Wednesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Heavy convective snow showers over the north Thursday, likely to
reduce visibility.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
There should be enough instability during the day Thursday in
westerly flow that there could be a few heavier snow showers,
primarily in Northern Maine. Went with chance of snow showers,
which was much more than the NBM was going. Model soundings show
pretty good instability and some CAPE in the north. Winds not
quite enough for snow squalls, but there will still be enough of
a breeze with the snow showers to briefly impact travel in the
north.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
Small possibility of a winter storm Thursday night, though it is
more likely to pass to our south.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Significant trend in models/ensembles to keep the Thursday
night system to our south. There are still a few solutions that
bring heavier precipitation this far north, but as of now, about
three quarters of solutions keep impactful snow south of our
area. If the system does make it this far north, it could
produce fairly heavy snow, but as of now, that is not the most
likely solution.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
Much colder weather likely Sunday and Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION...
Pretty high confidence in an Arctic front moving through
sometime late Saturday or Sunday. There is uncertainty on the
timing of the front, but reasonable confidence in a significant
cooling trend late in the weekend and into Monday after high
temperatures around 40 on Saturday. Wind chills early Monday
should be well below zero, and could be to 20 below or colder in
the north. We also could see some smaller snow accumulations
with and behind the Arctic front when it does move through, but
there is fairly low confidence in snow totals.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tonight:
-Downeast terminals: IFR or lower conditions will continue into
this evening, with light to moderate snow and blowing snow.
BHB/EPO likely to see periods of vis less than one quarter mile
and gusts 35 to 45 kts through this evening, while BGR could
see intermittent one half mile vis with gusts 30 to 40 kts. N
winds will gradually shift NW as the storm system shifts
eastward. Winds will begin to improve after around 03z tonight,
with NW winds falling to 10 to 15 kts and gusts 20 to 30 kts
by Tuesday morning.
-Northern terminals: MVFR/IFR tonight with light snow, except
periods of MVFR at FVE. N winds will gradually shift NW as the
storm shifts eastward. Winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts,
beginning to decrease some towards Tuesday morning.
Tuesday: Conditions will continue to gradually improve,
returning to VFR across all terminals by the afternoon. Gusty
NW winds will continue 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts, and
will begin to diminish late in the day.
Tuesday night: VFR. Light winds.
Wednesday-Wednesday night: MVFR/IFR moving during the afternoon
in snow. May see rain/snow mix at BHB during the day. SSE
5-10kts, becoming SW 5kts late Wednesday night.
Thursday: VFR BGR/BHB, but intermittent VFR and MVFR/IFR in
locally heavy snow showers Aroostook terminals. W 10kts, gusts
to 20kts.
Thursday night-Friday: VFR most likely, but a 30 percent chance
of MVFR/IFR with snow if a system that appears to be tracking
to our south comes further north than anticipated. Variable
wind 10 kts or less.
Friday night-Saturday: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible
Aroostook terminals. S 5-15kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Storm force will continue into the night tonight with gusts 50
to 55 kts and seas 13 to 17 ft over the outer waters and gale
force gusts up to 45 kts over the intracoastal waters, along
with moderate to heavy snow dropping visibility at times. Light
freezing spray is also expected. Snow will move out of the area
late tonight. Winds will decrease into the day on Tuesday,
falling back towards gale strength early Tuesday morning and
then falling below 30 kts through the day on Tuesday. Seas will
diminish towards 5 to 8 ft at this point.
Seas likely to be elevated around SCA levels over the outer
waters Tuesday evening, before dropping below overnight.
Southerly winds increase to SCA levels Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning ahead of weak coastal low. Seas increase above
5ft Wednesday evening through Thursday evening in southerly
swell. A stronger wave system moves in Friday night with seas
climbing to around 8 ft over the outer waters with 10 sec
periods. Small craft southerly winds are also likely Friday
night and Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ005-006-
011-031.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ015-032.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ016-017-029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AES/TF/MWS
AVIATION...AES/TF
MARINE...AES/TF/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
