NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
265
FXUS61 KCAR 170949
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
549 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Have included northwest Aroostook, northern Penobscot and
southern Piscataquis counties in the Wind Advisory.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to damaging winds are likely along the Downeast coast
and interior Downeast areas, including the Bangor region,
this morning. Gusty winds are possible across the remainder of
the forecast area. Scattered power outages are possible across
Downeast areas, including the Bangor region. Isolated power
outages are possible northward across the remainder of the
forecast area.
2) Heavy rain and snow melt will lead to the potential of
excessive runoff, poor drainage and small stream flooding, and
elevated risk of ice jams.
3) A series of weak systems expected to pass near Maine from
Thursday night through Monday. These storms could bring some
light to possibly moderate snow to the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong to damaging winds are likely along the Downeast coast
and interior Downeast areas, including the Bangor region,
this morning. Gusty winds are possible across the remainder of
the forecast area. Scattered power outages are possible across
Downeast areas, including the Bangor region. Isolated power
outages are possible northward across the remainder of the
forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A strong low level jet of 70 to 80 knots will cross Downeast
areas this morning in advance of an approaching occluded front.
Heavy rain and any convective elements could help mix these
stronger winds toward the surface. The approaching occluded
front will help to break the inversion which could also allow
stronger winds to mix toward the surface. Southerly wind gusts
of 50 to 65 mph are expected across Downeast areas, including
the Bangor region, this morning. The combination of thawing
ground and heavy rain could allow trees to be more easily
toppled. Scattered power outages are expected this morning.
Gusty winds will also occur northward across the remainder of
the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heavy rain and snow melt will lead to the potential of excessive
runoff, poor drainage and small stream flooding, and elevated
risk of ice jams.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
No changes to the Flood Watch. Additional heavy rain will occur
through the duration of the night before ending this morning.
Widespread totals of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain are anticipated
with locally higher amounts of 2 to 2.5 inches possible in the
southern upslope of the Longfellow Mountains and across the
Downeast. Increasing runoff and ice rot will lead to ice
movement on rivers and streams in the Flood Watch area creating
an elevated risk of ice jam flooding. Runoff from the heavy
rain and snowmelt will persist into the afternoon. The
coinciding of peak rainfall rates with rapid snowmelt will lead
to swift rises on smaller streams and rivers. While mainstream
rivers currently have ample channel capacity due to lingering
drought conditions, confined mountain channels and small streams
could easily be overwhelmed, resulting in localized minor
flooding. While many rivers are seeing significant thermal river
ice rot the significant runoff is expected to raise water under
the ice. As flows increase today into Wednesday there is a
limited to elevated risk of mechanical break-ups and
unpredictable ice jams. The greatest risk of ice jams will be
across the Downeast to Central Highlands including northeastward
into southern Aroostook county. Across Northern Maine the ice
jam risk is limited but even here increasing flows will lead to
localized ice break up. A complete flushing of ice is unlikely
in Northern Maine while the potential does exist in southern
zones.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A series of weak systems expected to pass near
Maine from Thursday night through Monday. These storms could
bring some light to possibly moderate snow to the area.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Ensemble solutions are in good agreement on a weak low pressure
system passing to the north Thursday night into Friday. Uncertainty
still exists in terms of how much snow will fall as some
ensemble members keep the snow fairly widespread while others
are much more conservative. Kept chance for snow across the area
as these types of setups with even weak warm air advection and
moist soundings can easily develop precipitation. Some snow/rain
showers may linger into Friday. A couple models are showing
potential for some strong snow showers but too far out to be
definitive. Another weak system Friday night into Saturday is
possible which could bring light to perhaps moderate snow
across the area but guidance is still undecided in how this
evolves. Ensembles show a troughing signal in the Sunday to
Monday time frame and are trying to develop a storm somewhere
over the northeast. Individual ensemble member solutions are
quite scattered in terms of location and strength but there is
general agreement this would be a stronger system than the other
two. Most solutions show snow but it is too early to be more
definitive on precip types as this will depend on track.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with rain and patchy fog this
morning. Isolated thunderstorms also possible Downeast this
morning. VFR/MVFR this afternoon. A slight chance of rain/snow
showers across northern areas this afternoon. South/southwest
winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 40 knots, except
up to around 50 knots along the Downeast coast, becoming
southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots.
Southerly/southwesterly low level wind shear through mid
morning.
Tonight...VFR/MVFR ceilings north. Otherwise, VFR.
Southwest/west winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 25
knots.
Wednesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots wih gusts
up to around 25 knots.
Wednesday night...VFR. Light SE winds increasing to around 10 kts.
Thursday...Low chance of MVFR late. S winds possibly gusting to 15
to 20 kts.
Thursday night-Friday...MVFR or lower possible, especially in
the north. S winds 5 to 10 kts overnight becoming SW Friday.
Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible. W/SW
winds 5 to 10 kts.
Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. NW winds 10 to 15 kts Saturday.
Saturday night...MVFR or lower possible. N winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
A Storm Warning remains in effect for all the waters through 8
AM. Gale force winds are then expected through the remainder of
today into tonight. Rain and patchy fog this morning, with an
isolated thunderstorm also possible.
Seas right around small craft criteria Wednesday night through
Friday. Winds below small craft criteria through much of Friday
then increase to above criteria late Friday. Small craft
conditions likely Friday night through Saturday with about a 40%
chance of gales on the outer waters Saturday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002-005-
006-011-031-032.
Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
High Wind Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...SM/CN
MARINE...SM/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
