NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
750
FXUS61 KCAR 220040
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
740 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into the Northern Maritimes tonight. High
pressure will build south of the area Monday, then builds across
Maine on Tuesday. Low pressure approaches and moves through the
area Tuesday night. High pressure then crosses the area Wednesday
into Thursday. Another area of low pressure will approach the area
Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
An upper level disturbance tracking northeast of Maine is
helping support a narrow band of snow showers which is
currently crossing eastern Aroostook county. The band of snow
showers will exit over the next 1 to 2 hours. Localized snow
accumulations up to 1 inch could occur with this band. Have
updated to increase snow shower chances across mostly northern
Aroostook county to account for this band.
Previous Discussion...
Weak high pressure builds in through Monday and then exits
Monday night leading to dry conditions through early Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:
Accumulating snow is likely Tuesday night into early Wednesday
with potential for a moderate accumulation for southwestern
portions of the forecast area.
Discussion:
A strong ridge of high pressure will set up across the Central
United States for the middle of the week, with Maine on its
periphery. A fast moving shortwave trough will cut across
Ontario and Quebec into New England Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The orientation of the trough favors the heaviest
precipitation across southwestern portions of the forecast area
into southern Maine. There is potential for an inverted trough
setting up that could produce warning level snowfall amounts,
although the exact position of the trough is uncertain. The
Canadian and European are generally more aggressive with warning
level snowfall amounts, while the GFS and ICON have generally
lighter amounts. Given the pattern favoring an inverted trough,
the snowier solution seems more likely. However, confidence was
not sufficient at this point to increase snow amounts. Across
the north, only a light snow accumulation is expected even in
the snowier scenarios.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
-Favorable travel conditions expected Christmas Day
-Active weather is likely Friday into next weekend with
potential for one or two storm systems.
Discussion:
Significant differences in timing and placement of systems
becomes worse during the long term as guidance struggles with
how quickly to erode the broad ridge over the Central US,
leading to a lower confidence forecast. Fortunately there is
relatively good agreement that surface ridging will build across
the area Thursday, providing good travel weather with
seasonable temperatures. A shortwave trough clipping the area
may bring some very light snow Christmas morning, mainly for
northern areas, but overall travel impacts are expected to be
low.
After Christmas, two periods in particular will need to be
watched for potential snow and mixed precipitation that are
slightly favored on the ensembles: Friday and Saturday night to
Sunday. Significant uncertainty exists and it is far too early
for details on these systems, so check back for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions with snow showers this evening
across Aroostook county. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR across northern
areas overnight. VFR across northern areas Monday through Monday
night. Across Downeast areas, VFR tonight through Monday night.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots
tonight through Monday. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
variable, Monday night.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday: VFR likely with a small chance of MVFR. Light winds.
Tuesday night to Wednesday: Becoming MVFR with possible IFR or
lower in snow. Southwestern terminals have greater chances of
IFR or lower with heavier snow possible. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.
Wednesday night to Thursday: Becoming VFR. MVFR possible
Thursday, especially northern terminals. Winds light and
variable Wednesday night, becoming SW at 5 to 15 kts Thursday.
Thursday night to Friday: Very high uncertainty with near equal
chances for VFR and for IFR or lower in snow and/or mixed
precipitation. NW winds 5 to 15 kts, with higher gusts possible
on Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: On the intracoastal waters winds will remain above
small craft advisory criteria until early Monday night while
seas will decrease below advisory criteria by Monday morning. On
the coastal waters, gales are expected through early Monday
morning and small craft advisory conditions will persist through
around midnight Monday night. Seas 6 to 11 ft this afternoon
will decrease to below advisory criteria by Monday night.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below advisory levels on
Tuesday before increasing to advisory levels or marginal Gales
later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Confidence is low during
this period depending on the track of a surface trough or
surface low, which remains uncertain. Winds and seas decrease
below advisory levels Wednesday night through Christmas Day.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
Near Term...CN/SM
Short Term...MWS
Long Term...MWS
Aviation...CN/MWS
Marine...SM/MWS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
