NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
697
FXUS61 KCAR 241427
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1027 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Have allowed the Small Craft Advisory to expire.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather pattern for mid to late week with multiple
precipitation chances, below normal temperatures and the
potential to impact travel.
2) Increasing probability of modified Arctic air to spread
across the region next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Active weather pattern for mid to late week with
multiple precipitation chances, below-normal temperatures, and
the potential to impact travel.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
An active pattern denotes fast flow aloft. In general, models
do not handle systems as well in a fast-moving flow, so a bit of
model spread regarding the timing and strength of individual
systems is expected.
A northern stream shortwave will approach Wednesday evening,
bringing isolated to scattered snow showers to the north. This
shortwave is quickly followed by one or two additional waves,
allowing for stronger forcing and weak low-level warm air
advection. At the surface, a cold front approaches Wednesday
night, then pushes south through the region on Thursday.
The result will be widespread light snow developing across the
north early Thursday morning, pushing south into the Upper
Penobscot Valley, interior portions of Downeast Maine, and
possibly the Bangor region. A rain/snow mix is expected
elsewhere across interior Downeast, with all rain across the
coast. The rain/snow line will push north during the day
Thursday; Downeast Maine, the Bangor/Penobscot Region, and much
of the Central Highlands will change to all rain, with a
rain/snow mix further north. The St. John Valley and parts of NW
Aroostook will stay all snow. Expect 1-3" of snow across most
of the north (highest amounts over the St. John Valley and NW
Aroostook), with less than an inch elsewhere and little to no
accumulation along the coast. This will likely cause impacts to
the Thursday morning commute across the north, Upper Penobscot
Valley, and northern Washington County. The St. John Valley and
NW Aroostook could also see impacts lingering into the Thursday
afternoon commute.
Another northern stream shortwave approaches Thursday night and
crosses the area on Friday. This results in a wave of low
pressure developing Thursday night along the stalled cold front,
passing somewhere in the vicinity of Maine on Friday. Solutions
range from a Gulf of Maine track to a track across northern
Maine. This track difference means a wide spread of potential
weather from moderate to heavy snow across the northern two-
thirds of Maine (Gulf track) to mainly rain (Northern Maine
track). All models agree that precipitation should end by early
Friday evening as the surface low pushes into the Maritimes and
a strong cold front dives well to the south. At this time, there
is too much uncertainty to specify exact Friday impacts for
northern and eastern Maine.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing probability of modified Arctic air
spreading across the region this weekend, helping to limit
ongoing river ice decay.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Canadian high pressure will build in Friday night and Saturday
before shifting to the south Saturday night and Sunday. This
will allow Friday night and Saturday morning lows to fall into
the negative single digits across northern Aroostook, Somerset,
Piscataquis, and Penobscot Counties, and from around 0 to 10
above elsewhere. Wind chills will range from 10 to 20 below zero
across northern Aroostook, Somerset, Piscataquis, and Penobscot
Counties; 0 to 10 below elsewhere; and 0 to 5 above over
coastal Downeast. In the zones experiencing wind chills of 10 to
20 below zero, frostbite can occur on exposed skin in 30 to 60
minutes, so preparations should be made to minimize time outside
Friday night.
Temperatures on Saturday will struggle to recover, with highs
only rebounding into the 20s and lower 30s, roughly 15 to 20
degrees below normal. As the high pushes to the south Saturday
night, lows should range from the single digits to near 10
across the north, and in the teens to near 20 elsewhere. While
still below normal, this is 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Friday
night. Highs on Sunday will moderate further to around 5 degrees
below normal as the air mass continues to modify.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today...VFR all sites. NW wind around 5 kt becoming SW.
Tonight...VFR. SW wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday...VFR except possibly briefly MVFR in a snow showers over
the north during the morning. W wind around 10 kt.
Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower likely. LLWS possible
at southern terminals Wednesday night. Wed night winds light and
variable shifting S. On Thursday S-SSW winds gusting 15-20kt.
Thursday night-Friday: MVFR or lower possible, become VFR
throughout by early Friday. LLWS possible Thursday night. Winds
shifting Thursday night and becoming gusty from the northwest
Friday. NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.
Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW winds gusting up to 20kt Fri
night becoming W on Sat less than 15kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase to SCA tonight into Wednesday for SW winds
gusting up to 30 kt. A few gusts may reach 35 kt late tonight.
Seas will be up to 5 ft today, tonight and Wednesday.
SCA conditions expected Wed night through early Sat AM. SW gales
possible Thu night. Rain Thurs into early Fri AM may reduce
vsby. Fri night into Sat light to moderate freezing spray
possible with gusty winds and much colder temperatures. Winds
expected to be below SCA conditions this weekend.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
