NWS Caribou, Maine Area Forecast Discussion
829
FXUS61 KCAR 181959
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
259 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slightly decreased snow totals across Downeast Maine tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow this evening through tonight for the Bangor region and
Downeast Maine will result in hazardous travel conditions.
2) Very cold wind chills possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
3) Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
4) Artic air late week into the weekend brings much below normal
level temperatures with dangerous wind chills.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Snow this evening through tonight for the Bangor region and
Downeast Maine will result in hazardous travel conditions.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Deterministic models show the track of the low pressure system
shifting slightly south. However, the ensemble models and AI
models have high probs towards more QPF in the south and a north
wiggle to the track. In addition, the upper levels and mid level
trof digs into the tropics, bringing warm, moist air into the
system. With the next low pressure system to the west, light and
cool N air will move in at the surface. High res upper air model
soundings give more confidence to higher snow amounts on the
coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very cold wind chills possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Tuesday into
Tuesday night. At the same time, the pressure gradient between
low pressure near Labrador and building high pressure will
support gusty southwest/west winds. Sub-zero wind chills are
expected across northern areas Tuesday. Wind chills Downeast are
expected to range through the single digits to around 10 above.
Winds will gradually diminish, with building high pressure,
Tuesday night. Wind chills Tuesday night will be dependent on
how rapidly winds diminish.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
An intensifying clipper system will approach Wednesday night,
then cross northern portions of the forecast area Thursday.
Snow will accompany this system. Snow totals are still
uncertain. However, current indications only support light
accumulations. Snow will taper to snow showers Thursday night.
The system will begin to draw much colder Arctic air across the
region later Thursday night.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
Artic air late week into the weekend brings much below normal
level temperatures with dangerous wind chills.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
Arctic air will spill across the region Friday then persist
through the weekend. Much below normal level temperatures are
expected Friday through Sunday. High temperatures Friday will
range from around 10 to 15 north, to around 20 to the lower 20s
Downeast. Low temperatures Friday night will range from around 5
to around 10 below zero north, to around zero to 5 above
Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from around
zero to 5 above north, to the lower to mid teens Downeast. Low
temperatures Saturday night will generally range from 10 to 15
below zero north, to around zero to 5 below Downeast. High
temperatures Sunday will range from around zero north, to around
10 to 15 Downeast. However, wind chill values will be much
lower. The pressure gradient between intensifying low pressure
moving from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to Labrador and strong
Arctic high pressure to the west will support gusty winds
Friday into Sunday. These winds, together with the very cold
temperatures, will produce dangerous wind chills Friday into
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aroostook Terminals...VFR conditions this afternoon and into
tonight. VFR conditions through Monday and Monday night with
possible MVFR Monday night with brief drops in cigs.
Downeast Terminals...VFR conditions this evening. Then MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsby tonight in snow. Conditions will improve to VFR by
Monday with possible MVFR cigs in the afternoon. VFR Monday
night.
Light and variable winds tonight and Monday. Then SW winds 10-15
kts Monday night.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north. VFR
Downeast. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to
25 knots.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday night. Southwest/south winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday.
Wednesday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of snow.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Snow likely. South/southwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.
Thursday night...MVFR/IFR early. VFR/MVFR late. Snow tapering to
snow showers. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20 knots.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers. West winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters through Monday morning,
as seas are expected to remain generally 5 to 7 ft through this
evening. Then as intensifying low pressure tracks to the south
of Nova Scotia, gusts up to 25 kt are possible after midnight
tonight. Small craft advisory conditions will likely persist
into Monday. Visibilities will be reduced on the open waters
tonight in snow and rain.
A Gale Watch has been issued for Monday night.
A Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Small craft advisory conditions are expected Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Small craft advisory conditions, along with
occasional gale conditions, will occur across the waters
Thursday into Sunday. Snow/rain expected across the waters
Wednesday night into Thursday, with a chance of snow showers
Thursday night. Light to moderate freezing spray Tuesday
through early Wednesday. Freezing spray of varying intensities
then expected Friday through the weekend with Arctic air
crossing the waters.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
Monday for MEZ016-017-029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion
